The President's Daily Brief - October 18th, 2022. The Drone Wars Are Raging in the East as Russia Buys From Iran.

Episode Date: October 18, 2022

It’s October 18th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ The Drone Wars are back. We first talked about Ukraine’s use of drones back in April. Well this morning they’re being used again, but this time by the Russians. I’ll explain the latest, plus why you should care. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, China announced yesterday that it plans to use more coal for years to come, plus they plan to drill for more oil and gas too. Which leads to the second radar brief. A warning for my listeners in America’s New England states. You all are facing the prospect of electricity blackouts this winter. I’ve got an assessment that explains and ties it all together. And as always, we’ve got a listener comment today. One of you is not happy with me because you think I’m biased and anti-Russia. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's October 18th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, the drone wars are back. We first talked about Ukraine's use of drones back in April. Well, this morning, they are being used again, but this time by the Russians. I'll explain the latest, plus why you should care. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, China announced yesterday that it plans to use more coal, in fact, for years to come. Plus, they want to use even more oil and gas, too, which leads to the second radar brief. A warning for my listeners in America's New England states, you all are facing the prospect

of electricity blackouts this winter. I've got the explanation, plus an assessment that ties it all together. And as always, we've got a listener question today. Actually, a comment. One of you is not happy with me because you think that I'm very. biased and anti-Russian. But first, let's get started with today's main brief. Six months ago, I first brought you a brief that I called the drone wars. So to refresh our memories on that, the United States began providing the Ukrainians a drone technology called switchblades.

They were designed to be flown like a remote-controlled plane that you might have had as a kid. They shot out of a tube and loitered in the air for anywhere from 10 minutes to an hour. But this switchblade had an option that you probably didn't have as a kid. They were built around a bomb. And once these Switchblade drones found a target, they would dive on that target and blow it up, like a kamikaze-like mission. So those drones were pretty effective and relatively cheap, about $6,000 bucks a pop. And I should say cheap as compared to, say, a cruise missile, not cost many millions of dollars each.

But Switchblades were eventually replaced with a much, more lethal and expensive set of weapons to include one that you might know of or have heard, and that's the advanced artillery high mars system. Well, drones are making a comeback, although this time it's not America giving them to Ukraine, it's Iran selling them to the Russians. So let's dig into this and I'll explain what these latest drones are, why they are such bad news for the Ukrainians, and why you should care. So first, here's what we know. Over the past week, Russia has been increasingly using an Iranian-built drone called the Shahid 136. And they've been using them to pretty great effect for better and worse. Yesterday, a swarm of these Shahid drones hit upwards of a

dozen cities throughout Ukraine, including the capital city of Kiev, or Kiev, plus central areas of the country, in fact, all the way down the coast to cities like Odessa and Mikhailayev. Now, exact numbers and total damage from these drones is still being assessed, but Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, for what it's worth, has said, quote, Kamakazi drones and missiles are attacking all of Ukraine, end quote. The targets appear to be mostly civilian, some military, with a major focus on food storage facilities, rail lines, electricity substations, and power stations. In fact, hundreds of towns and villages throughout the country are this morning without power. Zelensky continues to advise his countrymen to avoid heaters.

stoves, and other energy-intensive appliances. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense is pleading with the West to provide more air defense systems to stop these Iranian drones. And that is happening. Some defense systems are being sent, but these drones are very hard to stop. So let me explain why. When you think of drones, you probably think of some modern piece of weaponry, filled with the latest cameras and communication systems and electronic gadgets.

We'll throw all of that out the window because these Shahid 136s are the exact opposite. Instead, I want you to imagine a go-kart, but in the sky, because that's how absurdly simple these things are. They've got a tiny, loud engine, a two-stroke engine, which is a technology first developed back in the 1800s. The Shahid is so obnoxiously loud that you can hear them easily from the ground. In fact, Russian soldiers have nicknamed them the mopeds for how loud and obvious they are. So speaking of, they're relatively modest in size, at least compared to our big drones. They're about 8 feet by 11 feet. They weigh about 400 pounds, give or take, and they're not especially fast.

Now, certainly not like a jet or a missile. They go around 120 miles an hour. And that's the point about these things. They are made pretty simple, disposable, and relatively cheap. in this particular case, around 10 to 20,000 a piece, again, as compared to a cruise missile, which is millions and millions of dollars to manufacture. Now, you might be forgiven if you're chuckling a little bit about how low tech these things are or how desperate the Russians must be to use them.

And in fact, the Ukrainians are kind of saying more or less that. They're boasting about how affected they've been at stopping these simple drones. The Air Force, for example, is claiming this morning that they've got an 85% of the United States kill rate or shooting these things down, saying that, quote, that's quite a good result for the work of our air defenses, and that number of 85% will continue to rise, end quote. Here's the problem, folks, and why you should care. These go-carts in the sky, they are designed to operate in swarms. Now, that means that you don't need the latest and the greatest technology, nor do you need

all of them to get through the air defenses. You just need one or two well-placed suicide drones. And that's the part of their draw. You hear these things flying through the sky, especially at night, and you know that they're there. And that some will likely hit. And that creates both damage and terror amongst civilians and soldiers alike. So how much damage these things will cause? Not sure, but it's really important.

Because if many or most of Ukraine's power stations and electricity lines are destroyed before the winter, then there will be people freezing to death. and that will impact morale and effectiveness of both war fighters and the common man. That means that the billions that you as taxpayers have sent over an aid, plus the billions more to come, well, all of that gets put at risk, or you have to send even more, all over some pretty simple go-carts in the sky. So I would encourage you to remember that if you hear commentators sort of laughing off these Shaheed drones or saying that most can be shot down. Yes, all that's true, but the Russians know it.

And that's why they have purchased thousands of these drones. Plus, they've ordered thousands more to come based on reliable estimates that I've seen. By the way, one question that I keep seeing that keeps coming up, does Russia purchasing these drones mean that they're desperate, that they're running out of their own stuff? Well, maybe. But I'm not convinced of that. Their stockpiles are degraded. That's absolutely true. but not to the point of desperation that Ukrainian propaganda would have us believe.

Plus, I also know that Russia and Iran are very close allies. And it may be that part of Putin's calculus is that he's using these deals for both battlefield advantage, plus to curry favor with Tehran. One final note here, there is one defense system that's pretty good at stopping these drones, and it's called Iron Dome, made by the Israelis. The Ukraine has long asked Israel for some of these systems, but so far Israel is saying no. And that's because the Israelis work with the Russians in places like Syria, and they don't want to jeopardize that relationship as they collectively battle Islamic extremists. So the bottom line folks of this main brief this morning, sometimes simple technology is the best technology.

And that's true here. This is a low piece of weaponry that even high-tech defenses struggle to stop. So let's see how this plays out over the coming months because the targets of these drone strikes make clear Putin's wintertime strategy to freeze and to frighten, both soldiers and civilians. Will that win the day or will it fall short? No answers, at least not today, but I will keep you posted. Coming up, ladies and gentlemen, a closer look at what's on my radar. Two quick briefs for you, one on China's commitment to fossil fuels and the other on a very cold winter in New England. We'll be right back.

Welcome back to the PDB. As always, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. Put these two on your radar. First, as America makes a hard pivot to dirty green energy, I've got an update on what China plans to do. During a press conference yesterday in Beijing, China's National Energy Administration said that the country would boost coal production through at least the year 2025, all to avoid a repeat of this year's power shortages and the same thing from last year. So let me put some numbers to this. According to the deputy director of China's NEA, Beijing will increase coal production to 4.6 billion tons by 2025.

That's a 12% increase over last year's 4.1 billion tons. Ah, but that's not all. Also said during the press conference, quote, China will vigorously enhance oil and gas exploration and development, end quote. So there you have it, folks. as I highlighted for you yesterday, China's President Xi said at their big conference that Beijing's energy policies are guided by this single principle. Develop the new before discarding the old.

And the new, in this case, is renewable dirty green energy like solar and wind. And China will in fact continue to develop that. During that same press conference, the Chinese confirmed that they will still continue to build out dirty green technologies. Plus, they continue to build solar panels and send them to. to Europe and America, panels that, as we all know, are manufactured in China by coal power and slave labor. But Beijing made clear, to quote them again from yesterday, that we will give full play to the ballast role of coal, meaning that coal is reliable and cheap energy, a ballast to keep the

ship straight, whereas dirty green technologies are unreliable and unproven, at least to power an entire country. So you may want to keep that in mind as America and the West celebrate our sacrifices and the risk in making our pivot to dirty green energy all while shutting down our oil and gas industries. And speaking of, that takes us to our second radar brief this morning. And I take no joy in relaying what I'm about to say to you because for America and most especially my listeners in New England states, it's very bad news. The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that America's northeast is facing the growing threat of electricity blackouts this winter. Folks there will join the people of Europe and Ukraine in directly suffering from both

bad politics and the war in Russia. So here's why, and it starts with something that you might not know. New England relies on natural gas from abroad to bolster its supply during moderate to severe winters. And that's because the pipelines that deliver natural gas to that region mostly provide their fuel directly to gas utilities that serve homes and businesses, not to power plants. That means that electricity providers have to often buy natural gas on what's called the spot market, meaning that they have to compete with the Europeans who are looking for the same stuff after Putin, of course, shut off the gas spigot a couple months back, and then, well, somebody blew up the Nord Stream pipelines. To give you a sense of how vulnerable that makes the New England

states, which as we all know, make up a substantial... percentage of our population, well, these folks rely on foreign suppliers for about one-third of their power during peak winter demand. That's according to the Energy Information Administration. Now, it's true that we could send liquefied natural gas directly from, say, Texas to our northern states by ship, but because of an old law called the Jones Act, that is all but impossible. And that's because the law requires both the ships and the crews to be American. and there aren't enough of those to go around. That means that this year, if the winter is harsh,

power plants are going to have to arm wrestle with the Europeans for natural gas. And if they win that bidding process, they are going to pay out the nose. You, my listeners, in the Northeast, are going to pay out the nose. So let's talk numbers. Historically, the price was around 30 bucks for a million British thermal units. But now it's closer to 100 bucks or high. higher. In fact, it's going to go even higher if Europe has a bad winner as well. Okay, one more thing to tell you, and that's what actually brings today's entire brief together.

So here it is. The reason that New England states are in such a pickle is that they have shut down their coal, oil, and nuclear plants before they built out their solar and wind facilities. According to the region's power grid operator, a company called ISO New England, they told the Wall Street Journal that since 2013, these New England states have shut down about 5,200 megawatts of electricity capacity that came from oil, coal, and nuclear plants. That's about a quarter of the peak winter demand. Meanwhile, these same states have not built out enough solar and wind capacity

because obviously it's new technology, and that's left an electricity deficit. Plus, there's a substantial burden on the remaining natural gas system, which can cause accidents or overloads. That's left at this energy company, ISO New England, with a warning. If New England has a tough winter and there's a spike in heating demand, there will be blackouts. And you know what? This is a really heartbreaking message to deliver to everybody, and I wish I had better news.

But it leaves us with two key takeaways and my analysis for you. The Dirty Green Revolution obviously and clearly is coming with a price. and that's rarely discussed. But my friends in New England, you all may very well find out this winter what that price looks like. As we shut down our fossil fuel industry and as China ramps up theirs,

well, we're doing two things. One, we get no effective climate change benefit if in fact that was your goal to begin with. And two, if we fail to do what China is doing, that is developing the new before discarding the old, well, ultimately that will leave, China even stronger, at least their means of energy, and that will leave us even weaker. And it doesn't have to be this way. It's up to you. It means that you have to vote locally in your

state and in national elections, or maybe you run for office, whatever it takes if you're so moved. Because what's clear is that people are probably going to get hurt this winter through these dirty green policies. And if you're New England this morning, I am, heartbroken to say that you may be part of that group. Still, what I can offer you, my friends, is a warning, just like the actual president's daily brief. And then you can decide what to do with it as you'd like. And maybe that's nothing more than hoping for the best, but you can prepare for the worst. And with that, one more thing before I let you go. Today, one of you thinks that I am too anti-Russian and very biased. We'll talk about that when we come back. Welcome

back to the PDB, ladies and gentlemen. One more thing before I let you go. I got a message from a fellow named Abe in Virginia. So here is what he said. Brian, I'm not going to listen to your podcast anymore because I think it's very clear that you're biased against Russia. Your briefs are so full of propaganda and it's only for one side, America. Now, you don't have to love or hate Putin or even love or hate America. Just be honest about what's going on in Ukraine and how we are contributing to making things worse. Well, I want to remind not just Abe, but all of us who are listening this morning, why I started this podcast and what I'm hoping to accomplish. Now, maybe I'm falling short, but here we go. What I have long sought to do with the PDB is day after day, present the

facts, first and foremost, the data, and then be very clear what I'm pivoting to analysis or opinion. And that way, it's very obvious to you all what's fact and what's not. And then you all can decide whether to embrace my counsel or not. Now, I hope that you all hear that spirit each and every day when you listen. And as always, let me know if not. My email address, as Abe knows, is PDB at thefirsttv.com, or you can find me on Twitter at Brian Dean Wright or my personal website, Brian Deanwright.com. But Abe, I'll tell you this. Honestly, I don't share your assessment that I'm anti-Russia any more than I share the assessment from folks who say that I'm pro-Russia. Instead, I will give you the facts in Ukraine as best as I know them, then offer up my analysis

and let you decide. I think it's a good formula, and I think that it's why so many folks tune in. But as always, if I fall short, you can send me a note, you know, yank up on the reins, get me back on track. It might take me a little bit to respond, but I am reading everything. and I will tell you as always that your notes give me the encouragement to keep it up. Honestly, help me deliver what I think you all find so important. You all want the news and just the news, with maybe a dash of analysis that you can either take or leave. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world.

It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John, Chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day. All. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly

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