The President's Daily Brief - October 18th, 2023: Refugees Rejected, Biden's Israel Adventure, & Russia's Nuclear Shift

Episode Date: October 18, 2023

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:   We kick off with a crucial update on the ongoing crisis in Israel, focusing on Jordan's King Abdullah and his firm stance on accepting Palestinian refugees. So, why are Jordan, Egypt, and other neighboring nations shutting their borders to countless Palestinians?   President Joe Biden makes a wartime visit to Israel, showcasing support while also pushing for humanitarian assistance in the Gaza Strip.   Russia raises global concerns with its decision to back out of an essential nuclear test ban treaty.   In our Back of the Brief segment we delve into an imminent agreement between the US and Venezuela. A potential game-changer, this deal could lift sanctions and dramatically shift Venezuela's political landscape.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Wednesday, October 18th. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Today, we'll start our program with an update on the situation in Israel, and if you thought that it couldn't get any more complicated, well, you'd be wrong. An explosion yesterday rocked a Gaza City hospital, reportedly killing hundreds of people, many of whom had taken shelter on the hospital grounds, believing it could be a safe location. The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza blamed the Israelis, claiming the explosion was an Israeli air strike. Much of the international media ran with this claim immediately, headlining that Israel bombed a hospital. Now, Israel has denied that it had any responsibility for the explosion,

instead blaming an errant misfired Palestinian rocket for the tragedy. Regardless of who is responsible, the extensive loss of life is sure to further inflame the region and protests have started building in the West Bank and elsewhere. As conditions continue to deteriorate in the Gaza Strip, King Abdullah of Jordan announces that his nation is drawing a hard line on accepting Palestinian refugees. I'll explain why Jordan, Egypt, and other surrounding nations are closing their doors to hundreds of thousands of people seeking refuge.

A little later in the program, President Joe Biden heads to Israel in a bold wartime visit signaling robust support, but also advocating for humanitarian relief in Gaza. Biden now was also scheduled to travel to Jordan for a diplomatic summit with Jordanian and Egyptian leaders, as well as with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. However, that trip has now been canceled in the wake of the Gaza City hospital bombing as the Arab leaders called off the planned meeting. Next, we shift our focus elsewhere, as Vladimir Putin made makes a rare foreign visit to China, and in a concerning move, Russia begins steps to withdraw from a key nuclear test ban treaty.

Finally, in today's back of the brief segment, the U.S. and Venezuela near a groundbreaking deal that might bring sanctions relief and a political shakeup, details on how this move could reshape Venezuela's future. But first, we turn our attention to the escalating Israeli-Hamas conflict. One day before President Biden was due to travel to Israel and Jordan in an effort to show U.S. support for Israel and at the same time attempt to keep the war from escalating, the explosion at the Gaza City Hospital reportedly killed several hundred Palestinians and outraged the region, as blame was quickly placed on the Israelis. Regardless of who turns out to be responsible for the explosion at the hospital,

it is a shocking and tragic loss of life in a week-and-a-half-long conflict that has tested the limits of what brutality can look like. If it turns out that Israel is responsible, it will significantly ratchet up already growing condemnation of the nation's response to the horrific Hamas attacks that kicked off this war. And that will increase the potential for the conflict to spread, likely through the involvement of Hezbollah to the north, with the encouragement and support of the ever-present Iranian regime. Now, if it turns out that the explosion of the hospital was caused by an errant Palestinian missile, as claimed by Israel, the reality is, well, Israel will continue to face growing condemnation, as the Arab world and much of the international media will dispute

any findings other than it was Israel's fault. In the immediate aftermath, and without any real evidence yet, Arab leaders were quick to assign the blame and determined that it was necessary to cancel the diplomatic meeting with President Biden. One could argue, though, that it's It's in the face of tragedy and escalating tensions when diplomatic meetings are actually most necessary. In other news from the battlefront, over the past couple of days, Israeli airstrikes appear to be impacting Hamas' command structure. Several high-profile Hamas leaders have fallen since Israel began its air campaign against the terrorist organization. Yesterday, Hamas confirmed the death of Amon Nofol, a top commander in the Al-Kasam Brigades, their military wing. Nofo was killed in a targeted air strike, making him the most significant militant casualty in this conflict with Israel so far.

He was a member of Hamas's General Military Council and was responsible for operations in the central section of the Gaza Strip. He was also the former head of Hamas's military intelligence. Meanwhile, Hamas has released its first hostage video. It features Mia Skem, a 21-year-old French Israeli woman, held in the Gaza Strip. During the brief video, Schemm says she was injured and taken to Gaza where she's been receiving medical care. Disturbingly, the sound of explosions echo in the background as she appeals to be released. As the IDF's invasion of Gaza continues its holding pattern, the situation within the Palestinian enclave remains dire and grows worse. As of Tuesday,

the Palestinian Health Ministry reports that at least 3,000 people have lost their lives since last Saturday's attacks. Now that number will rise rapidly as bodies are recovered from the Gaza City Hospital tragedy. As we've been discussing, scores of Palestinians have been making their way to southern Gaza to escape the Israeli bombing campaign as well as the coming ground offensive. Satellite imagery reveals thousands of Palestinians amassed at the Rafa crossing, the only border exit to the south, to Egypt. However, refuge seems improbable. Despite pressure from the international community and the U.S. to open a humanitarian corridor, Egypt continues its reluctance to accept the estimated thousands of Palestinian refugees.

Likewise, King Abdullah II of Jordan firmly announced on Tuesday that neither Jordan nor Egypt would host refugees from Gaza, calling it a red line. Now, last week, here on the PDB, we polled the listeners on whether the U.S. should except Palestinian refugees. The overwhelming majority of you were against the idea, with many of you suggesting that they should be resettled in Arab countries. This leads us to a pressing, important, and long-standing question. Why are countries like Egypt and Jordan hesitant to open their doors to Palestinian refugees? Well, it's frankly a bit of a tangled web. You see, both Egypt and Jordan have their own histories and relationships with the Palestinian issue and with Israel, obviously.

For Egypt, it's not just about being good neighbors with Gaza. In 1978, they signed the Camp David Accords, a peace treaty with Israel. It's unlikely that Egypt would want to host massive numbers of Palestinian refugees as that could create security concerns that would have the potential to upset its delicate balance with Israel. Additionally, Egypt actually already hosts a large number of refugees. According to the UN, Egypt hosts around 300,000 registered asylum seekers and refugees from 55 different countries, and the country, Egypt, fears the added strain on its resources and potential disruptions to the nation's balance. Jordan's situation is a little different.

A big chunk of their population is already of Palestinian descent, bringing in a more refugees could shake things up politically for them in addition to straining their resources. And just like Egypt, Jordan's got its own peace deal with Israel to consider. Look, many Arab countries champion the idea that Palestinians should have the right to return to their homes, but they worry that by moving Palestinians elsewhere, that right could get diluted. Still, other nations have found that the Palestinian cause is a useful tool in their efforts to undermine Israel. The bottom line, when it comes to assigning blame for the plight of the Palestinians, Arab nations, as much as they'd like to be, are not absolved a responsibility.

All right, coming up next. President Biden heads to Israel in a crucial wartime visit, emphasizing both solid support for Israel and the urgent need for humanitarian relief in Gaza. Plus, a surprising move from Russia as it steps back from a key nuclear treaty. I'll be right back. Welcome back to the President's Daily Brief. U.S. leaders are actively engaging in Israel, and their agendas are signaling a shifting focus away from last week's horrific attacks and toward the Palestinian plight. Let's start with President Joe Biden, who's embarking on a wartime visit to Israel this week. Top U.S. diplomats indicate that his mission will be twofold, first, to assert America's support for Israel in its efforts against Hamas, and second, to find solutions to alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

While Biden had initially planned on including Jordan on this trip, as mentioned earlier, that plan was scuttled in the wake of the hospital bombing yesterday. King Abdullah II of Jordan, President El Sisi of Egypt, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called off the planned summit. Now, according to the White House, the cancellation was by mutual agreement. During his stop in Israel, a critical issue for discussion between Biden and Netanyahu will be the opening of the Rafah crossing. Back in Tel Aviv, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has been deeply engrossed in talks with senior Israeli officials, and the crux of their discussions center around delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza and safeguarding civilians from the fallout of Israel's countermeasures against terror attacks.

wrapping up more than seven hours of negotiations, Blinken announced an upcoming joint plan. The United States and Israel aimed to facilitate the flow of humanitarian support from donor nations and international organizations directly to the civilians in Gaza. Now, exactly how that will happen has yet to be fully explained. All right, let's switch gears. I want to shift now to some unsettling developments out of Moscow. For those unfamiliar, there's a key reason that nations like North Korea make headlines for nuclear weapons tests. It's because nuclear weapons tests are fairly rare.

One of the reasons they're rare is because of something called the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, commonly known as the CTBT. Introduced in 1996, this treaty's primary aim is to halt all nuclear weapons tests. The logic goes that by halting the tests, it restricts nations from creating newer forms of nuclear arms, thereby reducing the risk of an arms race. Both Russia and the United States signed the CTBT in 1996, but while Moscow ratified the treaty in 2000, the U.S. chose not to. While the CTBT never fully came into force, due to missing ratifications from some essential

countries, it still held very important symbolic power. It played a pivotal role in ending the nuclear tests that marked the Cold War era. Now, here's the concerning part. Russia has started the process to withdraw its ratification of the CTBT. In a move that caught many off guard, the Russian state Duma began a series of votes on Tuesday that are leading towards the treaties de-ratification. But let's not forget, this isn't a first. for Russia in recent days. Earlier in February of this year, they exited another critical nuclear treaty with the U.S. named New Start, designed to limit nuclear warhead deployments.

Now, this is a very important global development, and one will keep monitoring. But if backing out of a nuclear treaty isn't disconcerting enough, well, did I mention that Putin is now in China, cozying up again to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The two leaders, of course, took the opportunity. almost immediately to criticize Israel and by implication the U.S. for the escalating crisis and growing number of fatalities. Now, the site of Xi, who has basically led the CCP's efforts to exterminate the Muslim minority Uyghur population, shaking hands with Putin, who is neck-deep in his invasion of sovereign nation Ukraine, the site of them self-righteously declaring that Israel

has gone too far in its response to the Iranian-backed Hamas massacre of 1,400 Israelis is, is, what's the word I'm looking for? Ludacris. Yeah, that might be the word. I suppose a farcical also fits. Now, Putin is in Beijing for a two-day Belt and Road Forum. 140 nations are expected to attend the event, which celebrates 10 years since the start of Xi's grand global infrastructure initiative.

Xi's goal, well, as to a... establish a new international order that's not led by the United States and U.S. Democratic allies. In that objective, she has an ally in Putin. All right, coming up in today's back of the brief segment, we move to Latin America and a potential breakthrough in U.S. Venezuelan relations. Could we see sanctions relief for the economically strained nation and banned opponents finally getting a shot at next year's election in Venezuela? I'll be right back. Welcome back. In today's back of the brief, we turn our attention to South America, specifically Venezuela, a country that's been off the mainstream radar, but has seen an intriguing

development this week. The Biden administration has recently been quietly mediating negotiations between the government of Venezuela and the nation's opposition, and there's some buzz about a possible breakthrough on the horizon. This deal might offer Venezuela much needed sanctions relief, especially targeting its battered oil industry, in return for President Nicholas Maduro allowing banned opposition leaders to compete in next year's elections. However, not everyone's convinced. Some members of the Venezuelan opposition are already expressing skepticism that Maduro would genuinely uphold his end of the bargain. Now, it is good to see the U.S. government devoting time and effort to this region. For decades, the U.S. has either ignored or failed to give Mexico,

Central and South America the attention and resources necessary to create long-term stability and enduring alliances. Over recent years, as part of the Chinese regime's Belt and Road initiative, China has taken advantage of the U.S. in attention to the region in an attempt to increase their own influence and economic strength. So, while Maduro may have his own agenda and may not be the ideal negotiating partner. Attempting to create a more stable and successful Venezuela for the long run, that's a worthwhile bet for U.S. and regional interests. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, October 18th. If you have any questions, comments, or story ideas, reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back

tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.