The President's Daily Brief - October 1st, 2024: How Israel Infiltrated Hezbollah, Ukraine’s U.S. Mission, & Hurricane Helene Devastation

Episode Date: October 1, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We begin with how Israeli intelligence spent years infiltrating Hezbollah, leading to the group's recent devastating losses, including the death of their leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Then, we assess Hezbollah’s next steps and examine potential candidates to replace Nasrallah as Secretary General. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has wrapped up his U.S. visit aimed at rallying support for Ukraine. We’ll break down what he managed to secure from his American allies. In today’s Back of the Brief: Hurricane Helene has caused widespread devastation across the American Southeast, leaving over 100 dead. We’ll provide a detailed assessment of the damage and the recovery efforts underway. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail]  Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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american family owned company and they are laser focused on producing the finest premium coffee fresh roasted and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting go figure that go to blackout coffee dot com promo code pdb for 20% off your first time purchase it's tuesday one october welcome to the president's daily brief i'm mike baker your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start with some breaking news, a developing situation on the ground along Israel's northern border with Lebanon. The Israeli defense forces, the IDF, has now launched ground operations into Lebanon. This follows a series of air strikes and operations in southern Lebanon that terminated much of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah's leadership,

including longtime leader and close Iranian ally, Hassan Nasrallah. As reported on the PDB over the past 24 hours, Israeli special forces had been conducting covert operations inside Lebanon, gathering critical intelligence and essentially setting the table for what now appears to be the official launch of the IDF ground operation. The Israeli military is referring to this latest development as, quote, a limited operation in villages in southern Lebanon, Lebanon, specifically targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. We'll have more on this escalation in the

conflict between the Iranian proxy and Israel as the situation develops. All right, kicking off today's PDB. We'll explore how Israeli intelligence spent years penetrating the ranks of Hezbollah setting the stage for the group's disastrous few weeks, which culminated last week, of course, in the death of their leader, Hassan Nasrallah. the program, as Hezbollah struggles with the loss of key leaders, will assess just who might step into the organization's top spot. To be fair, after the past couple of weeks, well, there's significant headroom throughout upper management. Plus, Ukrainian President Zelensky has concluded his visit to the U.S. where he sought to rally support for his war-torn country. We'll break

down the results of his latest visit. And in today's back of the brief, Hurricane Halen, has devastated parts of the American Southeast, leaving over 100 dead, will assess the damage and the ongoing recovery efforts. But first, today's PDB spotlight. In the wake of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday, I want to discuss just how Israel managed to infiltrate the once-clostered terror group to deliver the crushing blows of the past couple of weeks. As a reminder, this infiltration.

has allowed Israel to rapidly destroy thousands of Hezbollah weapons sites, booby-trap thousands of communication devices used by Hezbollah fighters, and kill eight of Hezbollah's nine most senior military commanders, including their leader. It's a particularly stunning accomplishment given that Nasrallah had previously survived three separate attempts by Israel to kill him during the last war, and that was back in 2006. As we detailed on yesterday's PDB, Israeli leaders quickly gave the green light to take out Nasrallah after learning he'd be meeting with senior officers at the Terror Group's main underground command center in Beirut on Friday. While Israel is understandably tight-lipped about the nature of their intelligence operations, well, that makes sense,

the detailed knowledge of Nasrallah's movements suggests that Israel successfully infiltrated the Terror chief's inner circle. We should note, during their last war with Hezbollah back in 2006, Israel was unable to deliver a knockout blow to the terror group, despite their superior military capabilities, with most of Hezbollah's senior leadership coming away from the fighting, frankly, unscathed. So, you ask yourself, what changed? Well, according to an exclusive report from the Financial Times, in the wake of the 34-day war in 2006, Israel engaged in a large-scale reorientation of their intelligence gathering efforts regarding Hezbollah. In the aftermath, Israel's sophisticated signals intelligence unit 8200, along with Amman, its military intelligence directorate, spent years pouring through vast troves of data. to create a comprehensive picture of Hezbollah's operations, basically building a map of their world.

What they learned caused Israel to fundamentally change how they viewed the terror organization, which they had long treated, frankly, as a band of guerrilla fighters. Understanding that the group functioned more like a terrorist army, they widened their surveillance beyond its military wing to study their deepening relationships with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. A bigger breakthrough for Israeli intelligence came when Syria's bloody civil war kicked off in 2012. Hezbollah, growing in strength, deployed fighters to Syria to help Assad quell the revolt. Now, the militants, of course, had to stay in touch and share information outside their network,

notably with the Syrian and Russian intelligence services, are extensively monitored by Western intelligence agencies. According to the Financial Times report, this gave Israel an incredibly detailed intelligence picture regarding who was in charge of Hezbollah's various operations, who their friends were, who was getting promoted, who was vulnerable to corruption, and which members were traveling outside of Lebanon in secret.

An analyst at the Middle East Institute told the Financial Times, quote, Syria was the beginning of the expansion of Hezbollah. That weakened their internal control mechanisms and opened the door for infiltration on a large level, end quote. Now, to keep pace with the Syrian conflict, Hezbollah also opened up their recruitment process, ballooning in size. An analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center told the Financial Times, quote, they went from being highly disciplined and purists to an organization that let in a lot more people than they should have, The complacency and arrogance was accompanied by a shift in its membership. They started to become flabby, end quote.

At the same time, Israel expanded their surveillance capabilities, using spy satellites, sophisticated drones, and smartphone hacking to monitor the group in real time. Israel created Unit 9,900, which is solely dedicated to writing algorithms, to sift through digital data to facilitate everything from tracking Hezbollah operatives, to determining where they're building bunkers or replacing explosives. Once a Chesbala operative is identified, their information is placed in a database and paired with data pulled from devices in the target's orbit, including smart TVs, relatives' phones, and even their vehicles odometer.

Over the years, this yielded precise intelligence, detailing the organization and operations of the group's top leaders, allowing Israel to gradually infiltrate the terror network. While their focused surveillance of Hezbollah required more than a decade of work in extensive patients, their diligence clearly paid off. First, on 17 September, Israel detonated thousands of communication devices laced with explosives carried by Hezbollah fighters, which an Israeli shell company had lured the terror group into buying. The following week, Israel unleashed successive airstrikes that successfully targeted some 3,000 weapons sites that had been identified through the decades of surveillance. It all culminated Friday

with the strike in Beirut, which took out Nasrallah, more than 20 other Hezbollah members, and a senior general from Iran's IRGC. Okay, coming up after the break, we'll take a look at who might succeed Nasrallah, as the group faces the loss of key leaders, and we'll break down what Ukrainian President Zelensky was able to obtain after his U.S. visit, which was aimed at rallying support for his war-torn country. I'll have those stories when we come back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply.

Welcome back to the PDB. sticking with the situation in Lebanon, Hasbullah, left paranoid by Israel's decisive military actions, is now scrambling to plug the infiltration of their ranks and, of course, to find a new leader. While the group has been left in tatters, their Deputy Secretary General, Naim Kassem, said Monday that they would name a new leader at the earliest opportunity to replace Hassan Nasrallah, who of course was killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut on Friday. Qasem, who gave a televised speech on Monday, the first from a Hezbollah official since Nasrallah's death, looked incredibly rattled, regularly wiping sweat from his neck and forehead as he spoke.

He urged patience from Hezbollah supporters, saying the group was working rapidly to appoint replacements and re-establish a leadership hierarchy. He claimed Hezbollah's rocket and missile capabilities largely remain intact, despite Western reports, that they've lost up to 25% of their missile capacity. Qasem added that the group was prepared for a looming ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel. Kassim also said, quote, despite the losses of its commanders, the attacks against civilians throughout Lebanon and great sacrifices,

we will not budge from our position, end quote. He did not tip his hand regarding the Serala's potential successor, but much of the focus is on Hashem Safidin, the late Hezbollah leader's cousin. Safedin currently serves as the head of Hezbollah's executive council, overseeing the group's political affairs and head of the Jihad Council, which governs Hezbollah's military operations. Like his deceased cousin,

Safedin is a Shia cleric who dresses in a black turban, which signals his supposed direct descent from the Islamic prophet Muhammad. He was officially designated a terrorist by the U.S. State Department back in 2017, due to his role leading the Jihad Council. Safedin also has incredibly strong ties to Iran. Well, there's a surprise, having studied there in his youth. His son is even married to the daughter of Qasem Soleimani, the former, now deceased, top general of the IRC's elite goods force,

who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in 2020. Sources with knowledge of the group's operations told Reuters that his religious status as a supposed descendant of Muhammad, his family ties and physical resemblance to Nasrallah make him the obvious choice to take the reins. Still, sources say there is a chance the group could tap Qasem, as he was already serving under Nasrallah in the number two role, and that's a position he's held since 1991. Honestly, neither is likely excited about the promotion given the current environment, and hopefully the benefits package includes a solid life insurance policy.

All right. Shifting to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Zelensky has returned to Ukraine after his high-stakes visit to the U.S., where he was trying to shore up continued support for his nation's efforts against Russia's invasion as well as to pitch his, quote, victory plan. While he was in town, Zelensky met with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and former President Trump. But not all at the same time. That would be awkward. As we reported last week, the trip got off to a rocky start with the Ukrainian president antagonizing senior Republicans, including Trump, and his running mate J.D. Vance. Zelenzky told the New Yorker magazine he believed Trump, quote, doesn't really know how to stop the war, while he described Vance as, quote, too radical. Despite the only setback, Zelensky was bullish on the visit, telling Fox News on Sunday, quote, I think that we saved bipartisan support of Ukraine, end quote. Now that might be a bit of an overstatement, as the White House was apparently unimpressed with Zelensky's victory plan. Senior U.S. officials, speaking to the Wall Street Journal, report that the Biden

administration is concerned that Zelensky's victory plan lacks a comprehensive strategy and is little more than every packaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles. Senior U.S. and European officials told the journal that the plan offers no clear path to a Ukraine victory, particularly as Russian forces make slow but steady gains on the battlefield. However, it wasn't all a loss, and Zelensky didn't leave U.S. shores empty-handed. On Thursday, President Biden announced $8 billion with a B dollars in military assistance to Ukraine. Now, hey, we may not like your victory plan, but well, here's a swell parting gift. $8 billion and a new car and a set of luggage. Okay, I made up the part about the car and the

luggage, although it could have been helpful in carrying all that cash. Anyway, the new package will include an additional Patriot Air Defense Battery, unmanned aerial systems, and air-to-ground munitions, as well as funds to strengthen Ukraine's defense industrial base and support its maintenance and sustainment requirements. Washington will also provide Keev with the Joint Standoff Weapon or J-Sau glide bombs. These bombs can be deployed by Ukraine's new F-16 fighters and have retractable wings that help them reach targets up to 70 miles. Biden also announced the expansion of training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots by supporting the training of an additional 18 next year. In a post to social

media following the announcement, Zelensky said, quote, I am grateful to U.S. President Biden, the U.S. Congress, and both parties, Republican and Democrat, and the entire American people, for today's announcement of significant defense aid to Ukraine, totaling 7.9. $9 billion and the imposition of sanctions against Russia, end quote. Now, one thing President Zelensky didn't leave with was a commitment by the White House to loosen restrictions on the use of long-range Western weapons, and frankly, that, in all likelihood, was what he was most hoping for. Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, Hurricane Helene has caused widespread destruction

across the American Southeast. We'll take a closer look at the damage and the recovery efforts that are underway. I'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB. The death toll from Hurricane Helene continues to climb with the Associated Press reporting that over 120 people were killed across the southeast in the wake of the storm. That number is expected, unfortunately, to grow in the coming days. Helene first made landfall on Thursday night in Florida's Big Bend region, a category for hurricane. The storm has mostly dissipated at this point, although mid-Atlantic states are now feeling the remnants. The storm surge, wind damage, and inland flooding have been catastrophic, flooding neighborhoods, stranding residents, and destroying homes in Florida,

Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee. Some of the worst flooding is taking place in the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee, where entire communities are now under several feet of water. Aerial footage, which is incredible, coming from these areas looks almost post-apocalyptic. In the Asheville area of western North Carolina, some victims of the storm even claimed to see bodies and trees. According to official figures, parts of North Carolina and South Carolina received between four to five months' worth of rain over three days, including a record 30 inches in one town. Local officials report that clean drinking water has become scarce in the areas most affected by the storm. Unfortunately, many roads remain closed, hampering the delivery, of course,

of badly needed emergency supplies. According to the Pentagon, thousands of U.S. National Guard members across the East Coast have been deployed to assist in post-hurricane recovery efforts. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has also deployed roughly 200 personnel to assist in the affected states, including those specialized in debris management, bridge inspections, infrastructure assessment, and water and wastewater management, as well as two temporary emergency power planning and response teams. Power is being restored to some of the affected areas, but more than two million customers remain without electricity across several states. President Biden, who was monitoring the situation from his Delaware vacation home over the weekend, said on Monday that he's seeking

recovery funds from Congress. When asked if he had any words to the victims of the hurricane, the president said, quote, it's a tragedy. We've given them all that everything that we have, we're on the ground ahead of time, so we're working hard, end quote. Vice President Kamala Harris has canceled her upcoming campaign events and returned to Washington. For his part, former President Donald Trump traveled to the storm hit battleground state of Georgia to survey damage from the hurricane on Monday. Now, we'll keep an eye on the situation and provide further reports, because all too often, frankly, whether it's the Maui fires, whether it's the aftermath of a hurricane in Puerto Rico, wildfires in the Western U.S. or some other natural disaster,

the stories seem to fade quickly from the headlines, and we forget that people are facing continuing hardships long after the rest of us have moved on. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, 1 October. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And apparently, at least I'm told on good authority, word on the street is that to listen to the show ad-free, you can become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I've heard it's very simple. And remember to check out our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief. Not only can you stay up to date with the daily episodes. You can also catch past and new episodes of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation

Report. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe. Stay cool. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, because behind every headline is a bottom line, whether it's the funds-fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.