The President's Daily Brief - October 30th, 2024: Dangerous U.S. Missile Shortages, Israel Targets UNRWA, & Russia's Nuclear Drills

Episode Date: October 30, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: A critical warning about U.S. air-defense missile stockpiles running low, as global conflicts push demand to the breaking point. Could America be left vulnerable if another crisis unfolds? Israel escalates its response to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), accusing it of links to terrorist groups. This bold move has triggered concerns from the U.S. and backlash from the international community. Russia launches fresh nuclear drills, test-firing long-range missiles in a simulation of a "massive" nuclear retaliation. And in today’s Back of the Brief: Paranoia grips Pyongyang as North Korea tightens security to protect Kim Jong Un from potential assassination threats. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail]  Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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48 hours of roasting. Go to blackout coffee.com and use promo code PDB for 20% off your first time purchase. It's Wednesday, 30 October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up on today's show, a warning that the United States could be facing a critical shortage of air defense missiles, just as global conflicts push demand to its limits. Dwindling stockpiles could leave America vulnerable if another crisis breaks out. Sorry, we're fresh out of missiles. Later in the program, Israel takes a dramatic step against the UN Relief and Works Agency,

known as UNRWA, accusing it of ties to terror groups. That's a move that's raising concerns at the White House and causing international backlash. Plus, what's old is new again, as Russia has launched a series of nuclear drills, test-firing long-range missiles in a simulation of a massive nuclear retaliation. And in today's back of the brief, paranoia is gripping Pyongyang, oh, well, that's not particularly new, as North Korea ramps up security to protect leader Kim from potential assassination threats. But first, today's PDB spotlight. I want to bring your attention to an issue that was flagged by reporting from the Wall Street Journal,

and that is the Pentagon's shortage of air defense missiles, a situation that obviously could have serious implications for U.S. security interests globally, especially if another major conflict erupts, and Lord knows, we're certainly overdue for another major conflict. When you think about the war zones and the conflicts that we frequently cover here on the PDB, Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran, tensions on the Korean peninsula, the Chinese regime, increasingly aggressive behavior in the South China Sea, well, a common thread becomes clear. They all rely, or could rely heavily, on robust air defense systems. This shared need has driven the demand for missile interceptors to record levels. But let's just focus for now on the Middle

East. The Journal reports that since the conflict in Gaza began in October of 2023, The United States has launched more than 100 standard missiles from its ships to help shield Israeli airspace and protect vessels in the Red Sea. That includes about a dozen during Iran's October 1st missile attack on Israel. Now, standard missiles are the most common type of interceptor that the U.S. uses. But these aren't just run-of-the-mill missiles. You don't just pick up a batch of them at IKEA and then try to figure out how to put them together using those incredibly difficult instruction machines. their sophisticated hardware with a supply chain that's neither quick nor easy to scale up. Like many pieces of military hardware, they're made by a single company, that would be

RTX, and that's the company, formerly known as Raytheon. Now, RTX only produces a few hundred standard missiles each year, and that's for the entire global market, not just U.S. demands. Roughly 14 Allied nations also rely on these interceptors as part of their defenses, making each one a significant piece of hardware. A single standard missile, as you might imagine, is not inexpensive and costs millions of dollars, which adds up fast when two are often fired at each target to ensure a hit. Just since last year, over $1.8 billion has been spent by the Navy deploying interceptors against Iran and its proxies. As the Wall Street Journal highlighted,

the Pentagon faces a unique challenge with simultaneous demands for resources in the Middle East and Europe, given Russia's ongoing war, of course, in Ukraine. But they're engaging in a difficult balancing act because these same missile reserves are vital for potential conflicts in the Pacific. Analysts are raising concerns that by drawing down inventory for the Middle East, the U.S. could risk its preparedness for an unforeseen situation in Asia. Now, the Pentagon has options, but they're not perfect. It's recently set up additional Patriot missile defense systems and deployed the FAD system in Israel

to help ease the pressure on the standard missile inventory. But both systems have finite resources, and each carries logistical challenges. Defense officials like Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro are pressing manufacturers to increase missile production, but that, as you might imagine, is easier said than done. Manufacturers would need to make significant financial commitments, adding production lines and expanding facilities and, of course, hiring skilled labor. Without long-term contracts from the Pentagon, these expansions are, frankly, a risky investment for the private companies. However, Del Toro and others at the Pentagon are making the case for the country's readiness. Experts, such as former

Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, argue that U.S. military readiness in the Pacific, could be at stake. Missiles deployed in the Middle East today, well, might mean fewer available for the Pacific tomorrow. All right, coming up after the break, Israel's clash with a UN agency over terror ties sparks global backlash, and Russia ramps up nuclear drills in a show of force. I'll have those stories when we come back. Welcome back to the PDB. Turning to Israel, where the Knesset, that's the country's parliament, passed legislation banning the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees in the Near East, more concisely known as UNRWA, operations within the country. The legislation, driven by allegations of Hamas infiltration within UNRWA,

and those allegations, of course, are driven by evidence of Hamas infiltration, has sparked international debate and concern regarding continued humanitarian aid for Palestinians. Unra was established back in 1949 to provide relief for Palestinian refugees displaced during the 1948 Arab-Israeli conflict. It has since long served as a provider of health and education and social services for Palestinian refugees in Gaza, the West Bank, and surrounding areas. However, Israeli leaders have expressed increasing concern about Unra's activities after some individuals who took part in the Brunei's all 7 October attacks were found to be employed with UNR. On Monday, the Knesset's passage of two complementary bills received broad backing, 92 to 10 on the coalition bill, and 87 to 15 on the opposition measure. The cross-party support revoked privileges like visas for UNRWA employees and formally

severed ties with the agency. Now Knesset member Yulia Mellinovsky, one of the bill's sponsors, dedicated the law to those affected by violence linked to Hamas, stating, quote, finally, the Iron Curtain has fallen on this terrorist organization that we have been fighting against for almost a year. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office stated that UNRAS staff with alleged terrorist ties, quote, must be held accountable, but emphasized Israel is committed to avoiding a humanitarian crisis so long as it aligns with security interests. Speaking to reporters, Israel's U.N. Ambassador,

Senator Danny Dannon echoed Netanyahu's stance, stating, quote, UNRWA was infiltrated by Hamas many years ago, adding Israel plans to continue working with other UN entities like UNICEF and the WHO, that would be the WHO, for essential humanitarian campaigns. The Knesset vote drew strong international reactions, as you might imagine, certainly stronger than when some UNR staff were found to have taken part in the 7 October attacks. UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez formally rebuked Israel, warning of, quote, devastating consequences for Palestinian refugees and potential violations of obligations. Gutierrez announced plans to bring the issue before the UN General Assembly, urging Israel to uphold its commitments under international law.

Under a Commissioner General Philippe Lazareni echoed these concerns, labeling the bills as a, quote, dangerous precedent that undermines Israel's standing in the the humanitarian community. The U.S. State Department also expressed alarm. Spokesman Matthew Miller urged Israel to reconsider the bills, stressing UNRWA is, quote, on the front lines of humanitarian work in Gaza, playing a, quote, irreplaceable role right now. Miller cautioned that expelling UNRWA could have implications under U.S. law and policy. A joint statement from Ireland, Norway, Slovenia, and Spain condemned Israel's move, warning a, a quote sets a very serious precedent for UN operations. The country's pledged continued support for UNRES essential services to millions of Palestinians. Hamas responded by condemning the vote as an act of

quote, Zionist aggression. Oh, well, they would know aggression, wouldn't they? Signaling likely escalation in the weeks ahead as international entities press Israel to balance security priorities with humanitarian needs. Now, not to put too fine a point on it, but if Hamas, actually cared about Palestinian civilians, well, they wouldn't have hidden behind UNRWA and other key infrastructure within Gaza. Unra admitted itself admitted months ago that numerous staffers had taken part in the Hamas attacks by firing them after an internal investigation, and the leader of Hamas in Lebanon, killed recently in Israeli airstrike, was working up until early this year as an UNRah teacher and principal in Lebanon. Okay, shifting to Russia.

President Vladimir Putin authorized a large-scale nuclear exercise on Tuesday, simulating a retaliatory nuclear strike. This pointed message to the West signals Russia's ongoing escalation of its nuclear posture and readiness as tensions deepen over Ukraine. Throughout the Ukraine conflict, Putin has consistently implied nuclear threats as a deterrent, cautioning NATO and the U.S. against enabling strikes deep within Russian territory. In a significant move last month, Putin updated the Kremlin's nuclear doctrine to say that Moscow would label any assault on Russia backed by a nuclear-aligned state as a, quote, joint attack.

This expansion of doctrine underscores mounting pressure on NATO in the U.S. and Ukraine's allies to navigate Moscow's supposed red lines without inciting further escalation. Now, Tuesday's drill showcased the full spectrum of Russia's nuclear triad and land, sea, and air. A Yars Intercontinental ballistic missile launched from northwest Russia struck a target on its far eastern coast covering thousands of miles. Ballistic missiles were launched from nuclear submarines, while nuclear-capable T-U-95 bombers executed simulated long-range strikes with cruise missiles. Russia's defense minister confirmed to Putin that this exercise simulated a, quote,

massive nuclear strike in retaliation for a hypothetical enemy nuclear attack, and each missile reportedly reached its designated target. That would be a successful test of Russia's strategic readiness. The exercise follows last week's field drills in the Tvera region, where Russia maneuvered Jars missiles with the capacity to reach, U.S. cities. As Putin brandished Russia's nuclear capabilities, he stated, quote, a reliable guarantor of the country's sovereignty and security rests in its modernized strategic forces. These forces, Putin asserts, must be prepared to respond immediately to what he

described as, quote, growing geopolitical tensions and emerging new threats. And in a real display of a lack of self-awareness, Putin, of course, is responsible for the growing geopolitical tensions. As the conflict in Ukraine enters what Russian officials describe as its most dangerous phase, Moscow warns that increased Western support, particularly long-range missiles for Ukraine, could provoke retaliation. Putin also suggested that large-scale aerial assaults could elicit nuclear retaliation. These drills follow earlier joint exercises with Belarus, which now hosts some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons, indicating an expanded regional threat. Though Putin publicly claims nuclear weapons are unnecessary for victory in Ukraine,

the Kremlin's modernization of missile systems with minimized launch times suggests an effort to counter U.S. and NATO forces. Now, thus far, U.S. officials report no immediate shifts in Russia's nuclear deployment, and CIA Director Bill Burns disclosed that Washington, had warned Putin of severe repercussions should Russia escalate to nuclear action? Well, yeah, it would seem that pushing the nuke button would deserve some severe repercussions. Up next in the back of the brief, North Korea is ramping up security around Kim Jong-un out of fear that the so-called dear leader could be the target of an assassination attempt.

I'll have the details when will you return. How many discounts does USAA auto insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount, safe driver discount, new vehicle discount, storage discount, legacy how many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply. In today's back of the brief, South Korea's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, the NIS, disclosed heightened security measures in North Korea over fears of a potential assassination attempt on its leader Kim Jong-un.

In a parliamentary audit on Tuesday, the NIS revealed North Korea's top brass, rolled out high-tech defense equipment, including communications jamming vehicles and drone detection systems, as Kim's security concerns appear to mount. Now, this intense focus on security reflects a jittery Kim regime, especially as a North Korean leader, has been increasingly visible this year, logging 110 public appearances, which is a 60% increase over last year. This elevated security concern among the regime comes as tensions on the Korean Peninsula, of course, have been boiling over as North Korean officials continue to issue stark warnings

to Seoul. On Saturday, the North Korean Defense Minister cautioned that any further intrusion of its land, air, or sea by South Korea would prompt an immediate and forceful counter-strike. Now, this warning followed claims that a South Korean drone crashed in one of Pyongyang's districts, an incident that South Korean Defense Ministry dismissed as, quote, not worth verifying, adding to the growing paranoia from the North. North Korea's international posture is under scrutiny as well, with Foreign Minister Tuesan Hui traveling to Moscow on Monday. Although North Korea has not disclosed the trip's purpose, South Korean lawmakers briefed on

the matter, suggests that Tui's mission may be to negotiate high-level support agreements, potentially involving additional North Korean troops for the conflict in Ukraine. In exchange, Pyongyang will likely seek assurances from Moscow related to mutual support in the event of a growing conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Now, as highlighted here on the PDB, over the recent past, North Korea's stance towards South Korea has grown increasingly hostile. abandoning past calls for reunification, Pyongyang has now branded Seoul as the, quote, principal enemy. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, 30 October.

If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. Now, as you've probably heard from the chit chat around the water cooler, you can listen to the PDB ad-free by simply becoming a premium member of the president's daily brief, and you can do that by simply visiting PDB Premium.com. It's a very simple process. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill?

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