The President's Daily Brief - October 31st, 2025: INTELLIGENCE REPORT: China Is Rebuilding Iran’s Missile Program & U.S. Pushes Arab-Led Gaza Force

Episode Date: October 31, 2025

In this episode of The President’s Daily Brief: Troubling news out of the Middle East. Western intelligence agencies say Iran is quietly rebuilding its ballistic missile program—with help from China. Washington is pushing a new plan for Gaza. The U.S. wants an international security force made up entirely of Arab and Muslim nations, with no Western boots on the ground. In Brazil, the body count from this week’s massive anti-drug raid in Rio keeps climbing. At least 119 people are dead—and now the government is facing accusations of executions and brutality. And in today’s Back of the Brief—an update on the ongoing government shutdown, where programs like SNAP are days away from running out of funding, leaving millions of Americans in limbo. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com.Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Debt Relief Advocates: Learn what debt reduction you may qualify for. Go online and visit https://DRA.comTriTails Premium Beef: Build the kind of tradition your family will remember. Visit https://trybeef.com/pdb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Mm-hmm. And yes, the rumors are true. I'm attending Halloween festivities this year, as everyone's favorite anchorman, Ron Burgundy. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, news out of the Middle East. Western intelligence agencies say Iran is quietly rebuilding its ballistic missile program with help from China. Ah, I'll have the details. Later in the show, Washington is pushing a new plan for Gaza. The U.S. wants an international security force made up entirely of Arab and Muslim nations with no Western boots on the ground. Plus, the body count from this week's massive anti-drug raid in Rio keeps climbing.

At least 119 people are dead, and now the government is facing accusations of executions and brutality. And in today's back of the brief, an update on the ongoing government shutdown. Have you heard about this? Programs like SNAP are just days away from running out of funding, leaving millions of Americans in the lurch. But don't worry, at least the politicians on Capitol Hill are still getting paid. It's your textbook example of money for nothing. But first, today's PDB spotlight.

Months after the 12-day war, between Iran and Israel left much of Tehran's military infrastructure and ruins, Western intelligence agencies are warning that the Islamic Republic is quietly rebuilding its arson and it's getting help from China. According to a new CNN report, Iran has resumed work on its ballistic missile program, despite the reimposition of UN sanctions last month that ban arms transfers and missile development. Intelligence sources say the activity isn't just minor tinkering. It's a full-scale effort to restore Iran's long-range strike capability, with Chinese companies playing a key role in supplying the materials.

At the center of this effort is something called sodium percolate, That's a chemical used to produce solid fuel propellants for ballistic missiles. Now, the ship tracking data shows that since late September, at least 10 shipments of sodium percolate, about 2,000 tons in total, have made their way from Chinese ports to Bandar Abbas, that's Iran's main naval hub on the Persian Gulf. Analysts say that's enough material to power hundreds of medium-range missiles. For context, solid-fuel missiles are faster to launch and easier to hide than liquid-fuel ones. making them, well, more dangerous from a military standpoint. And unlike uranium or centrifuges,

sodium percolate isn't technically a banned substance. It's considered a dual-use chemical, meaning it has some legitimate industrial applications. That ambiguity gives Beijing some political cover to say that it's not violating sanctions, even though the quantities and destinations are, of course, raising eyebrows across western capitals. U.S. and European intelligence officials told CNN that these shipments began almost immediately after sanctions snapped back into place last month. That timing, they say, shows both Tehran's defiance and Beijing's willingness to look the other way, if not actively assist. The two countries already have extensive energy and trade ties, and Chinese firms have helped Iran skirt restrictions for years. What's new, according to Western

analysts, is the scale and coordination of the recent transfers. And while Iran rebuilds its missile capabilities. There's also evidence it's reinforcing another pillar of its military base, and that would be its nuclear infrastructure. Satellite imagery reviewed by Newsweek and analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows renewed construction at several Iranian nuclear sites, including a vast underground complex known as Pickax Mountain near the city of Natanz. The imagery reveals new tunneling, road construction, and the expansion of protective structures, signs experts say that Iran is hardening its most sensitive facilities against future airstrikes. Now, to be clear, there's no indication that Iran has restarted weapons-grade uranium enrichment,

but analysts say the work at Natanz lays the groundwork for doing so. If Tehran decides to move in that direction, that is. It's a strategy they've seen before, building redundancy and protection so that even if parts of the program are bombed, others can quickly pick up the slack. Iran's leaders have been open about their intent to become more self-reliant militarily following Israel's massive air campaign earlier this year. The 12-day war destroyed weapons depots, radar sites, and dozens of missile launch facilities. Since then, the Revolutionary Guard Corps has vowed to, quote, restore deterrence, and these new reports suggest they're making good on that promise. For Washington and its allies, the implications are significant.

The renewed missile activity effectively undermines the UN sanctions regime, that was supposed to restrain Iran's weapons programs. It also puts China in direct conflict with U.S. policy. The Biden administration has already sanctioned or had already sanctioned several Chinese firms for aiding Iran's oil exports. Now, similar penalties could extend to companies tied to missile materials. For Israel, this development is even more immediate. A revived Iranian missile arsenal, even if not yet nuclear armed, poses a serious threat,

especially if it includes precision-guided systems that are capable of, of striking deep inside Israeli territory. Military planners in Tel Aviv are already warning that Iran could return to its pre-war capacity within months if current trends continue. Taken together, the picture that's emerging is one of a country re-arming underground and resupplying by sea, all while the world's attention drifts elsewhere. Iran's partnership with China gives it both the materials and the political cover to rebuild faster than expected. And by moving key facilities deeper underground, Tehran is betting that the next round of airstrikes, whenever it comes, won't be enough to stop it.

As one Western intelligence official put it, they're rebuilding what we just destroyed, and they're doing it smarter this time. All right, coming up next, the U.S. pushes a plan for an Arab-led Gaza security force with no Western troops, and the death toll from Rio's massive anti-drug raid climbs past 100 amid accusations of police executions. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, you probably noticed fall is here.

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tasked with securing the strip in the event that Hamas eventually relinquishes power. The plan first outlined in President Trump's 20-point peace plan is now moving from concept to blueprint. According to three officials directly involved in the process, U.S. Central Command is leading the effort with a detailed proposal expected to be unveiled within weeks. But here is what we know now. The International Stabilization Force, or ISF, would patrol Gaza's borders, stop arms smuggling, and oversee humanitarian aid deliveries, all while maintaining legitimacy among Palestinians and keeping the IDF. sidelined. Its headquarters would sit just north of the strip inside the U.S. Civil Military

Coordination Center, serving as the missions command hub once operations began. In tandem, Washington is mapping out a new Palestinian police force to be trained and vetted by the U.S., Egypt, and Jordan, that would take over daily security once the ISF is in place. The idea of the ISF, American officials say, is to build a local authority that can keep order without allowing Hamas to return to power. As for the countries involved, the coalition is already taking shape. Washington wants this to be a Muslim-led mission, with partners like Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Turkey, lending troops to show regional credibility.

The goal is to make the ISF look and feel like a homegrown solution, not a foreign occupation, despite its U.S. oversight. But Turkey's inclusion has proven the hardest sell. Israel has pushed back fiercely rejecting any Turkish military presence in Gaza. Washington, though, sees Ankara, along with Qatar and Egypt, is essential to getting Hamas to cooperate. One U.S. official told Axios, quote, the Turks were very helpful in getting the Gaza deal. Bashing Turkey has been very counterproductive, end quote. Under Trump's peace plan, the ISF's deployment is a condition for Israel's withdrawal from roughly half of Gaza.

Now that handover won't happen until Hamas agrees to disarm and give up administrative power. and those are conditions that the Iranian-backedera group has repeatedly rejected. As we've been tracking this week, the fracture of the ceasefire Tuesday, triggered by Hamas' deceptive handover of hostage remains and an attack on IDF troops, followed by a wave of Israeli strikes, only deepened the urgency to implement the Trump administration's plan. The White House knows the longer the plan sits idle, the more fragile the calm becomes. But American officials insist there's no rushing this. A senior U.S. official told Axios, quote,

it's better to move slow and get it right. We're not going to have a second chance. The ISF has dominated high-level talks in recent weeks. Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkoff all pressed the issue during their visits to Israel, meeting with officials to lock down the forces structure. One senior Israeli official said that while Washington focused on troop numbers,

Israel stressed, quote, legitimacy and resolve, as the defining criteria, arguing that the size of the force matters far less than their willingness to fight if needed. Still, the biggest unknown remains Hamas itself. Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey have told Washington, Hamas might agree to the ISF if its fighters are guaranteed amnesty to third countries, a deal that could transform the mission from peacekeeping to peace enforcement. To anchor the mission in law, the U.S. is drafting a UN Security Council resolution to establish the ISF. In its early formations, Washington would maintain oversight and veto power over the chain of command, ensuring that the mission stays aligned with U.S. Israeli security priorities.

Trump views Gaza as the linchpin of his Middle East peace legacy, and his aides describe the ISF as the missing piece of the roadmap, one that could stabilize the strip, disarm Hamas, and mark a rare moment of Arab-led peace enforcement under American coordination. Okay, now I want to provide an update on what's unfolding in Rio de Janeiro, where a police raid, meant to cripple one of Brazil's most powerful gangs, exploded into one of the bloodiest operations in the city's history, leaving at least 119 dead in the city gripped by unrest. As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, the raid started before dawn on Tuesday, when thousands of officers and soldiers moved into Rio's hillside favelas,

neighborhoods at the Red Command has ruled for decades. Rio's governor, Claudio Castro, called it a targeted mission to take down the gang's sprawling leadership. But within hours, the city was echoing with gunfire, smoke rising over the alleys, and residents caught in the middle of what looked like open warfare. By the time the sun rose Wednesday, the death toll was staggering. Bodies were being hauled away in trucks, others laid out along the streets as families cried out for justice. Outside the governor's headquarters, crowds waved Brazilian flags streaked with red paint. urging Castro to resign, enchanted, quote, massacre and assassins. As I mentioned previously, the Red Command is more than just a drug gang.

It's a militia and a political power structure inside the city's poorest communities, controlling entire neighborhoods, waging gun battles with police, and feeding Brazil's drug markets at home and abroad. Police and soldiers say the raid was about breaking that control once and for all, but families of the dead say it turned into an execution campaign. The witness accounts are brutal. One mother said her 19-year-old son's throat was slit, his head hung from a tree, quote, like a trophy. AFB reporters confirm several decapitated bodies among the dead, many showing signs of torture, burns, and close-range shots. Several residents

described bodies having, quote, stab wounds and tied up. A lawyer representing victims' families said many were, quote, murdered in cold blood. But Rio's state police secretary paints a different story. He said the raid recovered 90 rifles and more than one ton of drugs, claiming all those killed were suspects who, quote, resisted police. State security officials report roughly 2,500 police and soldiers took part in the operation, supported by armored vehicles, helicopters, and drones. The BBC reports four police officers were among the dead. Castro defended the operation as a success and part of Rio's, quote, war against narco-terrorism. He went on to describe that, quote, Rio is alone in this war, blaming the socialist federal government of Brazil for withholding support.

For him, it was a show of force, a way to reclaim neighborhoods long surrendered to cartel and gang rule, where police rarely enter without taking gunfire. For background, Rio has seen deadly police raids on drug cartels for decades, most notably in 2005 when 29 were killed, and as recently as 2021, when 28 narco-traffickers were killed. but nothing on the scale witness this week. The death toll prompted investigations at the highest levels. A Brazilian Supreme Court Justice ordered Governor Castro and Rio's police commanders to testify next week. Prosecutors demand proof that the raid followed lawful procedures.

The United Nations Human Rights Office condemned the bloodshed. A spokeswoman said, quote, we fully understand the challenges of dealing with violent and well-organized groups such as Red Command, but Brazil, quote, must break this cycle of extreme brutality. All right. Up next in today's back of the brief, Washington's gridlock is starting to head home. As the shutdown stretches into yet another week, critical food programs like SNAP are just days from running out of funds. I'll have those details when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here, let me take just a moment to talk about personal finances.

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Oh, or really? awesome vehicle. It really is the recreational activity vehicle. The stylish 2026 Toyota RAP4 Limited. What's your Rav for? In today's back of the brief, the government shutdown is now set to stretch into week five, and the pain is definitely hitting home with little hope for a near-term resolution. Washington has remained locked in a stalemate since funding first expired on the 1st of October. As we've been tracking here on the PDB, lawmakers are sharply divided over competing spending priorities, particularly on issues of health care and immigration. President Trump says he won't sign a bill that fails to, quote, restore fiscal discipline, while congressional Democrats accuse the White House

of holding the economy hostage. As the bickering continues, the fallout is spreading. Nearly 800,000 federal workers are furloughed or working without pay, including critical roles like air traffic controllers. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has stopped publishing data, leaving economists flying blind on key indicators like inflation and employment. The shutdown is also starting to impact vital national security functions. Key agencies like the FBI say investigations are being slowed or stalled without funds to pay informants or sustain undercover work. While there was some optimism on Thursday that the Senate could reach a breakthrough

compromise, those hopes were ultimately dashed. The Senate adjourned on Thursday afternoon and will not reconvene until Monday after failing to hold a vote on a House-passed continuing resolution. That means the shutdown will extend at least into its 34th day, matching the longest funding lapse in U.S. history. That's according to a report from CBS News. While the shutdown has already impacted nearly a million federal employees, Congress's failure to reach a deal this week

means the effect will soon be felt on a much larger scale, particularly for the millions of Americans who rely on federal assistance programs. The major focus heading into the weekend is the fate of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or known by its acronym, SNAP. The program, better known as Food Stamps, is set to be frozen starting on Saturday, meaning more than 40 million, that's 4.0, 40 million low-income Americans, could see their grocery budgets dry up. Food banks, which are already stretched thin, are reportedly preparing for a surge in demand.

But recipients of food stamps may be granted a limited reprieve. 25 states and Washington, D.C., have sued to force the U.S. Department of Agriculture to tap a $6 billion emergency fund to extend the benefits, arguing that the freeze is illegal. On Thursday, a federal judge in Massachusetts indicated that she agreed and will likely order the Trump administration to use the contingency funds to keep SNAP benefits flowing. The judge said, quote, Congress has put money in an emergency fund, and it is hard for me to understand how this is not an emergency, end quote. The problem, however, is that the funds are not enough to pay for a full month of benefits, as the food stamp program costs the government an

estimated $9 billion per month. Regardless, the benefits will be delayed, as states need a few days' notice to allocate the funds. Zooming out, the shutdown is also bleeding into the wider economy. A report issued Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office warns that the U.S. is set to lose between $7 billion and $14 billion, depending on how much longer the shutdown drags on, potentially shaving one to two percentage points off the U.S.'s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025. Still, despite the mounting domestic chaos, senators from both parties say bipartisan talks over reopening the government are progressing and are expressing a cautious optimism that a breakthrough could be on the horizon. On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune suggested the stalemate could end following next week's elections.

But, well, we've heard this optimism before. The bottom line is that for now, there's no deal in sight. Now, maybe, and I'm just spitball in here, but maybe if the politicians themselves were not paid during a government shutdown and you took away their benefits, well, perhaps they'd find their way to a solution. Just a thought. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief

for Friday the 31st of October. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at BDB at thefirsttv.com. And, of course, if you're like millions, of Americans, I suspect you'll spend your Halloween night watching the latest episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report. You can catch it at 10 p.m. on the first TV, and, of course, it's available on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and podcast platforms throughout podcast land. We've got military veteran and former Border Patrol agent Amman Blair joining us to talk about the counter-narcotics operations currently underway in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the

outstanding defense analyst Ruben Johnson. He's sharing his insight on the latest from the front lines in Ukraine, as well as the deteriorating state of Russia's economy and dwindling war chest. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. And you stay classy, San Diego. Ryan Reynolds here from MintMobil, the message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please for the level Everything good in this world, stop. With Mint, you can get premium wireless

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