The President's Daily Brief - October 3rd, 2022. Russia Tensions Continue to Rise as Sanctions Continue to Be Circumvented

Episode Date: October 3, 2022

It’s October 3rd. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ The Russians are evading more sanctions this morning, and this time, it’s for timber. Odds are you’re actually buying some of it, and it’s helping to finance the war in Ukraine. I’ve got those the details coming up. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is saying that Florida and Texas should stop sending illegal migrants to northern states all because southern states should use them to work in the fields.  Second, Vice President Kamala Harris is saying that skin color should help decide who gets aid in Florida after Hurricane Ee-Ann. And as always, a listener question, this one from Jason in Amarillo, TX. He’s wondering what early indicators we might see if Russia decides to use new-clear weapons in Ukraine. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's October 3rd. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, the Russians are evading more sanctions this morning, and this time it's for timber. The odds are you're actually buying some of it, and it's helping to finance the war in Ukraine. I've got those details coming up. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, how Nancy Pelosi is saying that Florida and Texas should stop sending illegal migrants to northern states, all because southern states should use them to work in the fields. Second, Vice President Kamala Harris is saying that skin color should help decide who gets aid in

Florida after Hurricane Ian. And as always, a listener question, this one from Jason in Amarillo, Texas. He's wondering what early indicators we might see if Russia decides to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But first, let's get started with today's main brief. With the war in Ukraine growing more dangerous by the day and the prospects of peace growing more dim, Americans are getting drawn into the conflict in ways that are pretty surprising, I think, to most of us. Our electricity bills are going up. Gas prices going up too. Well, here's another one that's surprising. We are all buying furniture and various wood products from Russia that aren't supposed to be here. They're sanctioned or tariffed goods, but they are here on our store shelves or in our homes.

And that's because they're getting help from Chinese businesses and other nations in Southeast Asia, all of whom are happy to help Moscow or just want to make a quick buck. So here's what we know with some important background to start. So if you go to most furniture or cabinet stores in America or you buy these things online, you'll see a surprising amount of wood products from China and Vietnam. And that includes both finished products like bed frames and chairs and flooring. And it also includes birch plywood and veneers. That's the material that most of these finished products are actually made of. But even if those products are legitimately manufactured in, say, Vietnam, the original source of that wood

was probably from Russia. And that's because Russian birch is a favorite amongst wood manufacturers. It's more durable and consistent in quality as compared to other cheaper plywoods and veneers. But that all presents a problem because when Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine, the U.S. slapped on penalties against all that Russian birch wood. Tariffs went up from 10% to 50% back in April. That left Russian timber interests in a pickle. So what did they do to get out of that pickle? Well, we now know through a report from the inviourable,

Environmental Investigation Agency, which is a nonprofit group based in the United Kingdom. They released a report over the weekend, and here's what they found. Starting last spring, the Russians began selling their timber to Chinese buyers, just like Moscow has done with its oil and its coal and its natural gas. Well, most of that Russian birchwood has then been illegally relabeled as Chinese wood. And then it's been sent to third countries, most especially Vietnam, where it's made into finished products. So let me put some numbers to this. The investigators with this British organization spoke with

five major Chinese companies that export this birch wood. And what they found was that 90% of their birch is not Chinese. It's actually sourced from Russia. And virtually all of that gets sent on to Vietnam, where it's made into products, products that are then sent to a store near you. So listen to this. One Chinese factory owner who spoke to the investigators, he first, really admitted to this scheme, which, by the way, is a violation of Chinese, Vietnamese, and U.S. law, but he said it's all being done without penalty. Plus, he said, the American companies who buy these products don't track the source of the wood. He said, quote, we have been doing this all the time. They don't care. And those American companies, by the way, they include major

U.S. retailers that you would recognize. They sell you chairs, bedframes, end tables, bathroom, vanities, kitchen cabinets, and floor in. And they're buying a lot of it, by the way. This past spring, Birch plywood exports from Vietnam to the United States grew by 206%. That's according to the Decorative Hardwoods Association, which represents the American hardwood industry. So all in all, folks, what we know this morning is that Russia is evading sanctions and tariffs, once again, using some very crafty Chinese and Vietnamese buyers. And as it turns out, some American companies and their unwitting customers, too, maybe even you. And that takes us to analysis and recommendations, both if you were in the White House and as careful consumers.

First, sanctions against Russia aren't working like we thought they would. And they're not going to work so long as countries like China and India and others in Southeast Asia all help Russia in their fight, or at least they just want to profit from it. Now, can we shake our fists and demand that these countries listen to us? Like, you know, hey, stop selling that Russian wood. Well, sure we can. And some might listen to us for a while. But the fundamental issue is with global trade, you're going to have global cheaters that are very hard to stop.

That's just the nature of global trade. So whatever you think about this war of attrition between Russia, Ukraine, and the West, it's important to remember that Moscow will, for the foreseeable future, likely have very important friends supplying it with the funds that it needs to keep up the fight. And as it turns out, some of those friends are American companies and their unwitting American consumers like you and me, which gets us to my recommendations. You know, we keep hearing this story of folks like you and I buying products unwittingly that are helping our enemies. During our Dirty Green series here on the PDB, you might remember that

we found out that China is selling the United States solar panels that are made by slaves. Those slaves are known as the Uyghur people. They also make clothing and other products to include Christmas decorations that are on our store shelves right now. So folks, as always, my counsel is to look closely at those tags before you buy a product. And if you feel so moved, support American manufacturers. And when it comes to furniture, find local carpenters who can build things for you. From Amish workers to websites like Etsy, you can find very high quality American goods in your local community. Now, it may or may not cost you a bit more, but even if it does,

you'll be getting an heirloom product that lasts and you won't have to worry about funding a Chinese slave trade or a Russian war in Ukraine. Coming up, ladies and gentlemen, a closer look at what's on my radar. Two quick briefs for you, one on immigration and the other on Hurricane Ian. We'll be right back. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination

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As always, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. Put these two on your radar. First, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is saying that Florida and Texas should stop sending illegal migrants to northern states because southern states actually need them to pick their crops. Oh, my goodness. So here's the story. On Friday, Ms. Pelosi was speaking with reporters when she was asked whether the southern border is secure.

and if not, what we ought to do about it. Well, Pelosi said, yes, the border is secure, but that, of course, there would always be illegals. So the question is, what do we do with them? She said that we should find more pathways for them to become citizens. And then, she added this. Quote, we also have a shortage of workers in our country. And you see, even in Florida, Some of the farmers and the growers are saying, why are you shipping these illegal migrants up north? We need them to pick the crops down here, end quote. Now Pelosi did not name who these farmers or growers might be.

Although then again, Pelosi and her husband do own a vineyard in California, so maybe she's looking to hire. Anyway, her point was that America needs illegals to pick our crops, most especially in the south. Well, I will let you decide if that's the best way to think about this problem, given the history of this country, enforcing or encouraging minorities to work in our fields. By the way, Pelosi could be challenged on her statement that the southern border is secure,

and that's because U.S. border officials reported to Fox News over the weekend that about 600,000 gotaways came across the border in the past 12 months, which means that 600,000 people slip through without being apprehended, a number that is in addition to the two million that were apprehended and then released. Also, I should say that the number of 600,000 gotaways or getaways is a dramatic jump from two years ago when there were 69,000 gotaways. Again, we went from 69,000 to 600,000 gotaways in two years. I'll let you decide if that sounds like a border that is.

secure. Second, the state of Florida is recovering this morning from Hurricane Ian, a tremendously powerful storm with so many Floridians hurting today. And as most of you know, the cleanup efforts are predicted to take months to years. And speaking of, the federal government will play a key role in that process. But Vice President Kamala Harris delivered remarks on Friday is saying that perhaps not everybody will get federal aid who needs it. In fact, it could depend on the color of your skin. So here's that story. The vice president was at a Democrat event on Friday, and she was asked about the administration's hurricane priorities. Specifically, she was asked about who will get help and when. Here are her exact words. Quote,

it is our lowest income communities and our communities of color that are most impacted by these extreme conditions. We have to address this in a way that is about giving resources based on equity, understanding that we fight for equality, but we also need to fight for equity, end quote. In other words, we are all equal, but some of us are more equal than others. Florida's governor Ron DeSantis was not happy about skin color apparently being used as a litmus test for federal aid. His press secretary responded by saying, quote, FEMA individual assistance is already available to all Floridians impacted by Hurricane Ian, regardless of race or background, end quote. The governor's team added that if you need assistance, no matter your skin color,

you should visit disasterassistance.gov or call 1-800-621-3362. So I'm praying for everyone this morning in Florida, no matter your race, and I hope you can use that website or that phone number if you are in need. And with that, we got one more thing before I let you go. A listener question about nuclear weapons. We'll be right back. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money.

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one more thing before let you go. Jason in Amarillo, Texas wrote in, and here is what he asked. I'm wondering what early indicators we will have if Russia decides to use its nuclear weapons. Would we have weeks or days or just hours before we see the mushroom cloud? Well, Jason, let's start with this. are facing the greatest risk of nuclear war than we had faced in the last 40 years. So your question is important. Now, Putin knows that he shouldn't use these weapons because the risk of international blowback will be swift and last four generations. But that doesn't mean that he wouldn't use them as an act of desperation. So what would we see leading up with the use of these nuclear

weapons? Well, nukes need a certain unique support structure, and that includes technicians, specialized equipment and facilities, plus very unique maintenance. So if Putin were to use his nuclear weapons, that support structure would get put on notice, and they would start buzzing around to get ready. And that means our satellites, intercepted phone calls, our human spies would all tell us that a nuclear weapon of some kind is probably going to be used within days. Now, That's not always the case. So, for instance, submarine-fired weapons can be very difficult to predict. But what you've probably heard a lot about, or something called tactical nuclear weapons. Now, without getting into the weeds here, Russia has got about 2,000 of these kinds of weapons,

and they can be very difficult to track. But still, we should see some signs. The weapons would have to come out of storage, and the units involved would have to be put on alert. plus the Russian ground forces in Ukraine would probably be issued some sort of special protective equipment and that would give us probably a handful of days of notice. Now, if we got advanced warning that it was going to happen, you can guarantee that our senior spies and diplomats would be racing off to Beijing and New Delhi because in this war of attrition, China and India are in Russia's corner and we would absolutely press both countries hard to tell Putin to stop. But there is a remote possibility that Russia would smuggle out a few of its own tactical

nukes and sneak them quietly into Ukraine to avoid the bigger intelligence indicators that I just mentioned, the buzzing of all the support systems. And in that unlikely case, we'd have little to no warning. So, Jason, the bottom line is that in the best case scenario, we would probably have a handful of days of warning. And worst case, we would wake up one day. and we would see some very horrific news. Well, let's hope for the former and that we avoid a nuclear war,

because otherwise, if we do see that mushroom cloud, well, that is a world that none of us want to live in. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John, chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth.

And the truth shall make you free. Good day. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply.