The President's Daily Brief - October 4th, 2024: Why Israel May Choose the ‘Nuclear’ Option, NATO Jets Scramble, & US Terror Threats

Episode Date: October 4, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: As the world watches for Israel's response to Iran's missile barrage this week, we examine Israel’s potential move to target Iran's nuclear program��and why it may be their most likely course of action. NATO fighter jets were scrambled in response to a Russian drone attack near Ukraine’s Odesa region, close to the Romanian border. We’ll discuss this escalation and why NATO remains on high alert over increasing Russian provocations. Plus, the Department of Homeland Security has issued a new report, warning of heightened threats to the U.S. in the coming year, particularly from migrants with possible terrorism ties. And in today’s Back of the Brief, an update on the labor dispute at U.S. ports across the East Coast and Gulf region, as Florida's governor expresses concern that the strike could be hampering hurricane relief efforts. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail]  Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Friday, 4 October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world's stage. Now, if during the course of this particular broadcast, you seem to hear some of the President's background noise, or it appears as if there's a party going on. Well, the reason is, I'm recording this from Austin, Texas, and apparently you can't swing a dead cat in Austin without hitting a party. Regardless. Let's get briefed. As the world waits and watches for Israel's response to Iran's missile barrage earlier this week, we'll take a closer look at Israel's potential move to target Iran's

nuclear program, and why that could be their most likely course of action. Later in the program, NATO fighter jets were scrambled in response to a Russian drone attack near Ukraine's Odessa region close to the Romanian border. Obviously, this type of escalation raises serious concerns, as NATO remains on high alert over Russian provocations. Plus, the Department of Homeland Security has issued a new report, warning of elevated threats to the U.S. in the coming year, especially from illegal migrants with potential. terrorism ties. Yeah, that would do it. And in today's back of the brief, I'll have an update on the labor dispute at U.S. ports across the East Coast and Gulf region. It looks like the Union has agreed

to end the strike. And that, of course, is very good news for the U.S. and global supply chains. But first, today's BDB spotlight. As Israel continues to deliberate over how to respond to Iran's ballistic missile attack on Tuesday, I want to take a moment to focus on Iran. nuclear program and why leaders in Jerusalem may use this moment to torpedo the Iranian regime's atomic ambitions. As I suspect you're well aware, Iran launched a massive barrage of roughly 180 ballistic missiles into Israel on Tuesday, which was rendered largely ineffective by Israel's aerial defenses and some allied support. Prime Minister Netanyahu quickly promised a, quote, significant retaliation, kicking off speculation about how severe the Israeli response will be.

Senior Israeli sources have said that strikes against Iranian oil production facilities are the current focus, but some are reportedly pushing to target Iran's nuclear infrastructure, a strategy endorsed earlier this week by the Wall Street Journal's editorial board. Well, now newspaper editorial boards are weighing in on potential target packages and retaliatory strike plans. That seems reasonable. Israel already sent a shot across the bow regarding Iran's nuclear program back in April of this year, after the Islamic regime launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to a strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria that killed the top IRGC commander, Mohamed Rehasa Zahidi. Israel responded by firing a single missile

through Iran's missile defenses on April 19th, destroying a Russian-built air defense battery, protecting its Natanz nuclear enrichment complex in the Isfahan province. The message was clear. We can penetrate your air defenses and threaten your nuclear sites. But Iran's nuclear program is frankly spread over many locations. So what are Israel's potential targets? At the heart of Iran's enrichment program is the aforementioned Netanz complex in Isfahan, which includes both underground and above-ground facilities. The underground facility houses some 11,000 active centrifuges and is scaled for commercial production of uranium. But the above-ground facility is enriching uranium at up to 60% purity, which is near weapons grade.

Then, on the outskirts of the city of Isfahan, there's Iran's largest nuclear technology center, where Iran produces uranium metal, which of course can be used for building the core of a nuclear bomb. There's also the photo enrichment site south of Tehran that is dug into a mountain, where Iran is also enriching uranium at up to 60%. Given its location deep underground, experts doubt that that facility could be penetrated by Israel's current arsenal. There are several other nuclear facilities scattered throughout the country, though the sites mentioned are where officials suspect most of Iran's nuclear weapons development is taking place. Those in favor of striking these sites point to the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program over the past year, along with the significant weakening of their so-called axis of resistance. With Iran running out of offensive options, they fear that the regime could soon move to build a bomb.

As we've discussed in the past, their nuclear breakout period is, well, depending on who you speak with, anywhere from a matter of weeks to several months. While using that material to build a bomb, along with the needed delivery system, would take longer, their progress is seriously concerning. Iran already has large stores of 60% enriched uranium, putting them close to the 90% threshold that is considered weapons grade. They spun up their enrichment efforts in the first half of 2024, increasing their supply by at least 20 kilograms, bringing their total supply to more than 142 kilograms. they would only need roughly 42 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium to build one bomb. Now, we should note that President Biden and the other leaders of the G7 have already stated their opposition to strikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, faring, of course, that it will trigger escalatory attacks between Iran and Israel.

There are also concerns that such strikes could actually encourage Iran to accelerate the development of a bomb, seeing it as their only option. Biden and the G7 leaders said Wednesday that they fully support Israel's right to respond, but they're advocating for proportionate strikes on military targets. Others have pointed out that Israel likely doesn't have the military capabilities to deliver a death blow to the Iranian nuclear program without assistance from the U.S., given that many of the facilities are underground. Now, that may be true for a conventional attack,

but given Israel's infiltration of the Iranian regime and their proxies, you shouldn't necessarily assume the sites are beyond their reach. Western officials concede that they have little leverage to dictate how Israel proceeds, particularly given their success over the past several weeks in significantly degrading Hezbollah, which has emboldened leaders in Jerusalem and left Iran on the back foot. All right, coming up after the break, NATO fighter jets scramble in response. to a Russian drone attack near Ukraine's Odessa region, while the Department of Homeland Security warns of rising threats to the U.S.,

particularly from illegal migrants with possible terrorism ties. I'll have those stories when we come back. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right, so I can tune out travel advice that's just plain wrong. Bro, Skycoin, way better than points. Never fly during a Scorpio full moon. Just tell the manager you'll sue. Instant room upgrade.

Stop taking bad travel advice. Start comparing hundreds of sites with kayak and get your trip right. Kayak, got that right. Welcome back to the PDB. I want to turn our attention to the war in Ukraine, where tensions are running high along NATO's eastern flank following a recent Russian drone bombardment. The NATO alliance scrambled four fighter jets and issued an emergency alert on Wednesday after, a swarm of Russian drones were detected near Romanian airspace heading in the direction of Ukraine's Odessa region, that's according to a report from Newsweek.

Romania's Ministry of National Defense said the fighter jets were dispatched to monitor the situation due to the recent increase in Russian drones crossing into NATO territory. Emergency alerts were issued for Romanians living along the Ukrainian border, warning of the potential threat. Officials with the Defense Ministry, noted that the drones did not cross into Romanian airspace this time, but condemned the provocative activity. They also denounced Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as, quote, unjustified and seriously violating the international law norms. And quote, well, yes, I'm sure that Putin, as we know, is very concerned about violating international norms at this point. The activity

follows an incident in early September when a Russian military drone entered Romanian airspace and crashed somewhere along the Romanian Ukrainian border, also forcing Romania to deploy F-16 fighters. Later that same day, Latvia confirmed that

a Russian drone that appeared to come from Belarus had strayed into their airspace and crashed outside a city in their eastern territory. NATO quickly condemned the violations of Romanian and Latvian airspace and demanded Russia stop what they called their, quote, reckless escalation in the region. But the number of these

incidents continues to steadily increase. According to the Newsweek report, debris from missiles and drones have landed in countries neighboring Ukraine at least 34 times since the war began, with 20 of these incidents occurring in the territory of NATO members. A coalition of governments in Eastern Europe issued a joint statement in late September calling on NATO to develop a collective. To develop a collective response to these incursions to better ensure their eastern flank remains protected from Russian aggression. The statement said, quote, we express our profound concern over the repeated incursions of NATO airspace by the Russian Federation and the escalations of tensions along NATO's borders. We need a collective answer within NATO to challenges posed by modern weapons and

technologies, end quote. All right, moving to the U.S. The Department of Homeland security issued a warning on Wednesday stating individuals with terrorism ties are using migrant flows to enter the U.S., escalating the already hide threat environment for 2025. I know we're all shocked at this. The 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment emphasizes the persistent challenge of screening the sheer volume of migrants crossing the northern and southern borders with specific concerns about potential terrorist connections. And of course, this doesn't include the known Godaways, those who cross illegally, without encountering any law enforcement. While the number of migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border did decline over the past year

slightly, the DHS warns the volume remains high enough to strain immigration and border security efforts. The report flagged a notable increase in encounters at the U.S. Canada border with over 181,000 encounters through August to fiscal year 2024, and that's up from 170,000 during the same period in 2023. Particularly concerning is the presence of individuals on the federal terrorist screening data set, which includes those engaged in or supporting terrorist activities along with their known associates. By July 2024, authorities encountered 422 individuals from this watch list attempting to cross, 283 of them at the U.S. Canada border and 100.

and 39 at the U.S. Mexico border. The DHS findings point to ongoing security risks exasperated by the Biden-Harris administration's inability to stem the migrant flow at the border, leaving vulnerabilities that watchlisted individuals or others could exploit. It's important to note the findings from Monday's DHS Inspector General report, which we previously reported on on the PDB, were not included in this assessment. The IG report uncovered that 13% of migrants, specifically at Nogales, Arizona and San Yucidro, California ports of entry, were allowed to self-report their biographic information, bypassing proper identification protocols. Correct. You actually heard me correctly. Individuals show up with no identification. They simply tell the authorities whatever they want to tell them regarding who they are, and then they enter the U.S., often with a government-provided.

plane ticket in hand to fly within the U.S. I honestly don't remember the last time that I was able to board a flight without identification. It seems very liberating. Despite a slight decrease in migrant encounters from regions where radical Islamic terrorism is more prevalent, DHS reports roughly 9% of overall encounters still involve individuals from the Eastern Hemisphere. That's down just 1% from 2023. persistent figure underscores ongoing concerns about potential terrorist links among migrants. Adding to these domestic security issues, DHS is anticipating potential violent extremist responses in the lead-up, of course, to the 2024 election, particularly from foreign terror groups like

ISIS and al-Qaeda. These groups are reportedly using global conflicts, including the Israel-Kamas war to inspire attacks in the U.S. The DHS also warns that Iran, quote, remains the primary sponsor of terrorism and continues its efforts to advance plots against individuals, including current and former U.S. officials in the United States, end quote. As the number of migrants increases and security lapses persist at critical entry points, the Biden-Harris administration faces mounting pressure to address these vulnerabilities to keep the country safe. Well, that's nice, they've got a month before the election to do something different from what they've been doing or not doing for the past three and a half years. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro

Mayorkas emphasized that the DHS workforce's collaboration with federal, state, and local partners enables them to confront these evolving threats, really. Well, then you ask yourself, why didn't Majorcas and the DHS do something significant three years ago to sort out this problem. I mean, forgive me for being cynical, but really, the only reason that Majorcas and, of course, the Harris campaign team are spending any time talking about the border is because of the upcoming November election. Yeah, I guess that makes me sound cynical. Coming up in the back of the brief, the Longshoreman Strike at U.S. ports is officially over. That's very good news after negotiators reached a deal Thursday evening. I'll be right back.

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USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usaa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. Welcome back to the PDB. In today's back of the brief, after just three days, the potentially crippling work stoppage at ports along the east and Gulf Coasts has come to an end. late yesterday, the leadership of the International Longshoremen's Association, or ILA, and the United States Maritime Alliance, announced that they had reached a tentative agreement,

and approximately 50,000 striking workers returned to work at the ports this morning. The two sides have extended their existing contract through January of next year to provide time to negotiate the details of a new contract, although a framework now appears to be in place. According to reports, the union and management, reached a tentative deal on wages, which would be a $4 per hour raise for each year of the six-year contract. Before launching the strike, the ILA had pushed for a 77% wage hike. Now, this apparent contract agreement would fall short of that initial demand.

Other issues still need to be resolved, and any agreement, of course, still needs to be ratified by the rank-and-file members. Should they reject an agreement, we could see another strike sometime in the near future. However, for today at least, enough progress has been made to get workers back on the job. The deal ends the biggest work stoppage of its kind in nearly half a century, which blocked unloading of container ships from Maine to Texas and threatened shortages of everything from bananas, fruit, produce, to auto parts. Despite the fact that the stoppage only lasted three days, it still triggered a backlog of angered ships outside major ports, which will have to be clear. in the coming days.

Of course, the White House cheered the agreement. In a statement, President Biden applauded both the workers and management, saying, quote, I want to thank the union workers, the carriers, and the port operators for acting patriotically to reopen our ports and ensure the availability of critical supplies for Hurricane Helene Recovery and Rebuilding, end quote. Now, it's worth noting that pressure had been building on the union to suspend the strike. On Thursday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis accused the striking dockworkers of intentionally blocking relief supplies from reaching victims of Hurricane Helene. DeSantis stated, quote, you already have people reeling, and instead of helping, this union is making things worse, end quote.

DeSantis went further, announcing that the Florida National Guard would be deployed to key ports impacted by the strike to restore order and, where feasible, resume operations. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, 4 October. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And, of course, if you're jones in for an ad-free experience, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDB premium.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Some follow the noise.

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