The President's Daily Brief - October 9th, 2023: Israel At War: The Hamas Offensive, Israel's Tragic Oversight, and Iran's Support

Episode Date: October 9, 2023

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Israel is at war. We’ll spotlight how the terror group Hamas masterminded its actions on Israel’s southern frontier.   A question of intelligence: How could Israel overlook the warning signs of this major assault?   We then pivot to Iran, highlighting its position as one of the few countries openly supporting these aggressive attacks on Israel.   Finally, we bring it back home, dissecting the U.S. reaction and delving into potential ramifications for our own political landscape.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Monday, October 9th, the start of a new week that brings with it death, violence, and uncertainty in the Middle East. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Israel is now at war after Hamas launched coordinated extensive terrorist operations from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel. In today's President's Daily Brief, we'll examine the events of the weekend and their implications. We'll kick off with the latest updates, zeroing in on how the terror group Hamas orchestrated its operation. Then, given the attack's magnitude, a major question exists,

how did Israel miss the warning signs of such a significant assault involving upwards of a thousand terrorists moving into Israel by land, sea, and air? With both Israeli and U.S. officials stating that they had no warning of an impending attack, what can explain this obvious intelligence failure and critically what needs to be done to ensure it doesn't happen again. After addressing that, our focus shifts to Iran, which is openly cheering Hamas. That would be, of course, because Hamas is a proxy for Iran, which supplies the terrorist organization with money, military hardware, training, and other support. Lastly, we'll break down the U.S. response and what this may mean for the political situation and the recent chaos on display on Capitol Hill,

is the U.S. national security posture at risk because the House lacks a leader? Let's start by unpacking the events that have unfolded so far. The war between Israel and Hamas has now entered its third bloody day and the body count continues to rise. Israeli authorities have shared the grim tally, over 600 dead and more than 2,000 wounded. most of whom are innocent civilians, and that number is very likely to go up. On the other side, over 300 have reportedly been killed in Gaza, as Israel responds by hitting hundreds of targets in Palestinian territory. Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said Hamas had, quote, opened the gates of hell.

The statement preceded Israel's official declaration of war on Hamas yesterday, setting the groundwork for the considerable military response that we're currently seeing, which Israel has dubbed the Operation Sword of Iron. Now, you might be asking how this weekend's violence is different from prior confrontations between Hamas and Israel. Well, this time around, Hamas's assault on southern Israel was unmatched both in its range and its precision. For context, Hamas militants didn't just attack from the land. They launched offensive. of campaigns from the sea and air as well. They've named this multi-pronged assault Operation Alaksa flood, symbolizing the deluge of devastation they sought to deliver. The attacks began

just after daybreak, around 6.30 a.m. local time as most Israelis slept. First, the skies were lit up with rockets. At least 3,000 fired at a variety of Israeli towns and cities, and attempting by that number to overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. The attacks also included armed drones, targeting Israeli lookout posts and weapon systems on the border. Almost concurrently, fighters on paragliders soared into Israel from above. But the assault didn't end there. Militants then attack from the ground, approaching Israel's separation barrier and, using explosives and bulldozers, created multiple breaches.

This allowed for a wave of terrorists to flood into Israel, launching assaults on Israeli military positions and civilian targets along the frontier. This coordinated operation extended its reach far beyond the immediate border area. This was no simple border incursion, with attacks reported as distant as 15 miles from Gaza. The Hamas tactics were brutal, as evidenced by disturbing videos that showcased them dragging injured soldiers and standing over, lifeless women and children. But arguably, the most horrifying element has been Hamas' strategy to target civilian communities close to the Gaza boundary. Eyewitnesses reported scenes of carnage in the Israeli town of Starrat, near Gaza, with bodies strewn across the streets and inside vehicles, their windows shattered by a barrage of bullets. Reportedly, over 250 young people were killed

at a music festival just a few miles from the border with Gaza. Moreover, Hamas militants have taken both Israeli soldiers and civilians captive. Israeli authorities confirm approximately 100 individuals have been abducted by Hamas and dragged back into Gaza City. Initial reporting indicates that the hostages are being held in various sites, including underground tunnels and other locations used by Hamas. To provide perspective on the severity of this situation, the death toll from this singular assault has surpassed any other since the second Palestinian uprising 20 years ago. In a recent update, the Israeli Defense Force, the IDF, announced the conclusion of the first

phase of their counteroperation, asserting the majority of Hamas forces that infiltrated Israeli lands have been neutralized. Now, this conflict will escalate as Israel seeks to destroy Hamas facilities, command and control centers, weapons cash, and military sites. and there will undoubtedly be Palestinian casualties. Now, this point is important to note, and that is, Palestinian casualties are what Hamas expects, intends, and counts on. Hamas and their Iranian overlords and sponsors do not care about Palestinian civilian casualties, except to the degree that they use those deaths as leverage.

They know that global media and social media will play up Palestinian. casualties while playing down both the havoc wrecked by Hamas and Israeli deaths. That has been a pattern for decades. Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, all encouraged, funded and supplied by Iran. Only have relevance when there is instability. A regional peace. Now think the recent discussions as an example and possible agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, well, that threatens the terrorist's relevance and power base. Look, they've been using the Palestinian cause for their own purposes and self-interest for generations. The reality is that Hamas has for years placed themselves within the civilian infrastructure of the Gaza Strip, embedding their command centers,

their weapons, caches, and bomb and missile manufacturing sites adjacent to or within civilian infrastructure. They know that Israeli targeting will likely cause civilian deaths, because that has been their methodology, the methodology of Hamas. They hide behind the civilians, knowing their presence will give them what they want when they initiate conflict, the currency of dead Palestinians. All right. After the break, as the war rages on, many Israelis are asking an important question, a critical question. How did Israel miss the signs that a major attack was coming?

I'll be right back. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. Welcome back to the President's Daily Brief. Now Saturday marked Simca Torah. That's an annual holiday celebrating the beginning of a new cycle of Torah readings. It's a major Jewish holiday. coincidentally, the last attack on this scale happened a half a century ago, nearly to the day. On October 6, 1973, the Yom Kippur War witnessed a full-blown Egyptian-Syrian attack on Israel. Today, just like then, Israeli intelligence seems to have been caught off guard. Some even compare the magnitude of the weekend's assault to landmark events like Pearl Harbor and September 11th.

In fact, Israeli officials are calling the weekend's attacks their September 11th. Previously, we highlighted the complexity of this attack, possibly upwards of a thousand militants, thousands of rockets hitting Israel, explosives to breach the border fence, and a myriad of vehicles, including motorbikes, cars, drones, and attacks by sea. Astonishingly, there seemed to be no warning from Israeli intelligence about Hamas' planned attack. Now, this assault didn't emerge from nowhere. It didn't just pop up. The backdrop is an escalating clash between Gaza militants and Israel. By June of this year, Israeli forces had reportedly killed

137 Palestinians in the West Bank, while Palestinian attacks resulted in 24 Israeli casualties. The situation had deteriorated to the point that over the summer, the UN Security Council called for restraint from both Israel and the Palestinian. So the question is this. How did Israel's renowned intelligence with its vast network of human intel, surveillance, and other advanced resources covering the West Bank and Gaza miss such a monumental threat? How did everyone from Mossad to Shibet, the IDF, border security, and others not pick up any chatter, informant input, surveillance data, or signals intelligence? Look, Israel's very existence depends heavily on accurate, proactive, well-sourced intelligence.

A strong military alone is not capable. You need operational intelligence. Without it, your military is flying blind and constantly reacting rather than preventing threats. There will undoubtedly be a very critical hotwash on this intelligence failure involving Israeli military, intelligence, and police elements, as well as U.S. and other allies. And that, frankly, is happening right now. it cannot wait until after Israel carries out counterstrikes and follow-up operations.

A failure like this causes an immediate assessment of existing resources, human intelligence, and technical capabilities. They're looking to understand the gaps, the missed leads, and possible raw intelligence that might have been collected but was overlooked or misinterpreted, possible false leads or actions taken by Hamas to maintain secrecy. There is a lot to do here. all while requiring the same existing intelligence apparatus to inform the military's current actions to strike at Hamas and rescue hostages. As Israeli officials have already indicated, this is going to be

a very long process. Now, the international community has been quick to react to this weekend's attacks. Of course, most Western nations have expressed their sympathy and rallied behind Israel, but there's even been some unexpected reactions from traditionally staunched, supporters of Palestinian militants. Notably, the Saudi and Qatari governments have voiced concerns over the rising tensions, signaling a surprisingly measured response. In stark contrast, and this should frankly shock no one, there's one nation that didn't hold back in showing where its allegiance, support, and sympathies lay. Anybody want to take any guesses? Yes, Iran. The nation congratulate the terror organization, expressing support for, quote, anti-ZZs,

Zionist resistance in the region. To further illustrate its stance, Iranian state television broadcasted clips of parliament members chanting death to Israel and proclaiming Palestine is victorious. Obviously, look, it's no surprise that Iran stands firmly behind Hamas. The two have a deeply entrenched alliance. Iran has been a loyal benefactor to Hamas for years, channeling financial aid to bolster its operations and infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. This monitoring, industry influx ensures Hamas can remunerate its fighters, uphold social services in a sort of kabuki theater, and pursue its political agenda. On the military front, Iran isn't just a cheerleader, it's an active contributor. They've equipped Hamas with an arsenal, ranging from rockets and missiles

to small arms. Plus, they've imparted crucial combat training to Hamas fighters, significantly boosting their battle proficiency, as well as technical expertise, as Hamas has developed. their abilities to manufacture their own rockets from facilities inside the Gaza Strip. Adding to the intrigue, just last month, top-tier Iranian officials reportedly convened with Hamas leaders in Lebanon. The ties, I'm saying, run deep. In the aftermath of the weekend's attacks, some in Washington, D.C., have been quick to point out that the Biden administration's soft on Iran approach, along with a recent return of $6 billion in frozen assets, helped embolden Iran, which, in turn, emboldened Hamas. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and other White House officials

were quick to run to the cameras over the weekend to declare that there is no, quote, direct connection between the attacks and the recent release of the $6 billion in frozen assets to Iran. And strictly speaking, they're not wrong, but it is a fact. factor. An attack of this nature that we saw over the weekend likely took many, many months to plan. Resources needed to be gathered, rockets stockpiled, surveillance and reconnaissance of potential targets had to be carried out. There was training of participants. Look, this wasn't a case of Iran, receiving $6 billion in frozen assets and then pulling the trigger and ordering Hamas to carry out the attack. It took longer for them to develop this. Not to mention that there were other factors.

likely encouraging Hamas's timing, including, and this is not unimportant, the disarray over the past many months within Israeli politics and the apparent disarray within the government. However, it is likely that the Biden administration's approach to Iran since being in power, an approach that encouraged more negotiation and rapproachment than the previous sanctions and maximum pressure approach led the Iranian regime and their proxies to believe that aid more aggrave more aggressive stance in the region was possible. Look, the U.S. government released $6 billion for the release of five hostages. White House officials have stated that the deal couldn't have happened without the funds. Now, Hamas is holding possibly a hundred hostages, some of whom are reportedly U.S. citizens.

While Secretary Blinken can say that there's not a, quote, direct connection between the funds and the weekend attacks, nothing happens in a bubble. The U.S. administration's policy positions and behavior can and do impact the strategic thinking of our enemies. Now, it's also worth noting when we're looking at the region that the recent dialogue and potential agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel was something that Iran, frankly, views as unacceptable. And it would be nice to imagine that the Saudi government now will not be influenced by Hamas and Iran to discontinue the path of dialogue and agreement with Israel. But wishful thinking and hope tend not to have much impact on the realities of the Middle East. The point being, like any conflict, and there are few conflicts

as layered and complex as those that exist in the Middle East, there are numerous elements that need to be understood and considered. While Hamas and indirectly Iran are responsible for this bloodshed, it's not just one thing that led us here. All right, coming up in today's back of the brief segment, we're going to bring it back to American shores, just how has the Biden administration in Capitol Hill responded, and what could this mean for the U.S.?

I'll be right back. Welcome back. In today's back of the brief, Let's address how this whole Hamas Israel situation has hit home for the U.S. First off, it's not just about watching the news from afar, some tragedy impacting another country. According to early reports, at least four Americans have lost their lives in the attacks over the weekend. Moreover, seven other Americans remain unaccounted for, as per U.S. officials. Ron Dermar, Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs, suggests that Americans could be among the hostages now being held in

Gaza. The idea of U.S. citizens being in the clutches of Hamas terrorists creates a unique dynamic and demands a decidedly strong response from the Biden administration. Moving beyond the immediate emotional impact, we've got some practical concerns, like, are we going to pitch in to help Israel out? Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, while chatting with CNN, hinted that we might be sending additional military resources to Israel. hint became a reality, as we learned yesterday, that the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, has ordered the USS Ford Carrier Group to the Eastern Mediterranean in order to forward deploy further resources. Now, there is no stronger projection of power than a carrier group.

However, on the home front, the U.S. is dealing with political dysfunction. It's not a good look when the world is now dealing with two significant wars. As you may have heard, particularly if you're a regular devotee of the PDB, the U.S. is currently running without a Speaker of the House. We've got a substitute speaker, a fill-in, Congressman Patrick McHenry from North Carolina. As you may recall from your school days, substitute teacher days were not the most productive. I suspect that substitute speaker days are much the same. Look, I'm sure Congressman McHenry is a fine individual, but his hands are tied. He can't do much, besides recess, adjourn, or recognize his speaker nominations. And with him in charge currently, there's chatter about whether he gets a seat

at the table for the high-level gang of eight intelligence talks. So with all that's going down in Israel and the potential for that to escalate, not to mention the ongoing Ukraine conflict, maybe, just maybe, it's time for the U.S. to get its own house in order. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Monday, the 9th of October. If you have any questions, if you have any questions or comments, reach out to us at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.