The President's Daily Brief - October 9th, 2025: Leaked Doc. Reveals Russia’s Staggering War Casualties & Trump’s Tomahawk Decision

Episode Date: October 9, 2025

In this episode of The President’s Daily Brief: A leaked document from inside Russia’s own Defense Ministry reveals staggering battlefield losses in Ukraine and raises new questions about Moscow’s ability to sustain the war. President Trump says he’s “sort of made a decision” on supplying long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine—even as the Kremlin ramps up its warnings and threatens retaliation if the plan moves forward. Israel’s Shin Bet says it has foiled an Iranian weapons smuggling plot into the West Bank—the latest sign of Tehran’s continued efforts to arm and fund anti-Israel militants. And in today’s Back of the Brief—a Florida man is arrested for allegedly starting California’s deadly Palisades Fire, which killed twelve people earlier this year. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com.Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief American Financing: Call American Financing today to find out how customers are saving an avg of $800/mo. NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.327% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit http://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDBLean: Visit https://TakeLean.com & use code PDB for 20% off Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All right, let's get briefed. Before we get tucked into our stories for the morning, though, it looks as if, at least according to initial reports, Israel and Hamas may have agreed to a first phase of a peace plan to pause the fighting and at this stage at least release some of the hostages. Now, details are a little bit thin at this point. It does look like the mediators, in particular Qatar, have confirmed that there is an agreement of some sort, although it's not clear whether they've worked out some of the more difficult issues, such as the question of demilitarization for Hamas, future governance, etc.

We'll be keeping a close eye on this and we'll have more details as they become available later today on the PDB afternoon bulletin. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a leaked document from inside Russia's own defense ministry is revealing staggering losses in Ukraine and raising new questions about Moscow's ability to sustain their war. I'll have those details. Later in the show, President Trump says he's, quote, sort of made a decision on supplying long-range tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, even as the Kremlin ramps up its warnings and threatens retaliation if the plan moves forward. Plus, Israel's Shinbet says it has foiled an Iranian weapon smuggling plot into the West Bank, the latest sign of the Iranian regime's continued push to arm and fund anti-Israel militants. Once again, there will be no long-term peace and stability in the region,

as long as the Mullahs and their Revolutionary Guard Corps continue to fund and train and resource their various proxies with the goal of destroying Israel. And in today's back of the brief, a Florida man has been arrested for allegedly starting California's deadly Palisades fire, which killed 12 people and destroyed thousands of homes and buildings earlier this year. But first, today's PDB spotlight. A newly leaked document from inside Russia's Ministry of Defense is giving the world something

that we've rarely seen since the start of Putin's war in Ukraine, and that would be an honest look at the scale of Russian losses. For nearly three years, Moscow has gone to great lengths to keep those numbers secret. The Kremlin tightly censors casualty reports, bans independent journalists from the front lines, and even prosecutes soldiers' families for speaking publicly about their dead. But this document, verified and published by a Ukrainian organization called I Want to Live, paints a grim picture that lines up with what Western intelligence agencies have been saying for months. According to the leaked figures, since January of this year alone,

Russian forces in Ukraine have suffered more than 280,000 casualties, a combination of those killed and wounded in combat. That figure roughly aligns with recent Western intelligence assessments, which estimate that Russia has suffered between 900,000 and 1 million total casualties, including roughly 250,000 killed since the invasion began in 2022. Now, these aren't just abstract statistics. They represent a devastating depletion of Russia's fighting age, population, and a scale of loss the country hasn't seen in generations.

To put it in perspective, the Soviet Union lost around 15,000 troops over nearly a decade in Afghanistan. In the first Chechen War, during the 1990s, roughly 5,000 Russian soldiers were killed. In the second Chechen War, maybe half that. Even the bloody campaign in Syria fought with airstrikes and proxies cost Moscow just a few dozen troops. By contrast, the war in Ukraine has become, by most accounts, Russia's deadliest conflict since World War II. It's also been fought under vastly different circumstances. In the 1940s, Russia was a nation of nearly 200 million, with large families and a birth rate that could replenish its armies. Today, the Russian Federation's population is closer to 145 million and shrinking.

And that's where an interesting analysis by Forbes adds another layer to this story. The outlet reports that these battlefield losses are now accelerating what was already a severe demographic crisis inside Russia. Before the war, the country was already losing around 700,000 people per year due to low birth rates, emigration, and poor health outcomes. But the war in Ukraine has intensified every one of those trends. The men being killed in Ukraine aren't retirees or prisoners. They're overwhelmingly in their 20s and 30s, the very age group that anchors a nation's workforce and drive. its birth rate. Many of them come from rural or minority regions like Dagestan or the far reaches of Siberia, where the government has disproportionately drawn recruits to avoid unrest in the major

cities. Those regions are now being hollowed out. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands have educated urban Russians, engineers, IT workers, young families have fled the country to avoid the draft or the economic fallout of the war. It's a mass exodus that the Kremlin can't easily reverse. Demographers inside Russia quietly say that the country could be facing its steepest population decline since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The labor force is shrinking, fertility rates are at their lowest in modern history, and the gender imbalance, already pronounced, will become even more severe. The social consequences are enormous. With fewer young men, rural economies will continue to decay, and already stressed pension and health care systems will come under even greater strain. The Kremlin has tried to

offset the losses by offering cash incentives for childbirth and encouraging immigration from Central Asia. But those measures barely dent the overall decline. It's also a political problem. The Russian government has always leaned heavily on nationalism and the memory of victory in World War II to unite the country. But as the body count rises and the economic toll deepens, that narrative becomes harder to sustain. Well, was once sold as a limited, quote, special military operation, has turned into a generational wound, one that cuts across families, communities, and entire regions. The leaked defense ministry document may not change the course of the war, but it shatters the illusion that Russia can absorb endless losses without consequence.

For decades, Russian leaders from Stalin to Putin have treated manpower as an infinite resource. This war may be the moment that that illusion finally collapses. All right. Coming up next, President Trump hints at sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as Moscow threatens retaliation. And Israel says it has stopped an Iranian weapons plot in the West Bank. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about your personal finances. Now, I'm sure you've seen that the Fed has finally dropped interstrates, and that's great news for

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sort of made a decision, end quote, on the sale, a choice that could give Keev the range to strike deep inside Russia. In the Oval Office earlier this week, Trump told reporters that while his mind was, quote, pretty much made up, he was looking for clarity on how Ukraine intends to use the weapons. The president said, quote, where they are sending them, I guess I will have to ask that question.

I'm not looking to see an escalation, end quote. Now, it's a delicate balance, obviously, one that's hovered over Washington for weeks, ever since President Zelensky from Ukraine made a personal appeal on the sidelines of last month's UN General Assembly to Trump. In an interview with Axios, Zelensky said he asked for an additional weapons system that could force Russian President Vladimir Putin

to the negotiating table, quote, perhaps without even having to use it. Two officials familiar with that sideline meeting later confirmed the weapon in question was indeed the Tomahawk. That's a precision-guided cruise missile with the maximum range of roughly 1,550 miles. By comparison, the U.S. supplied Army tactical missile system rockets, the attack-hams from the Biden era, can travel just 190 miles. Analysts at the Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, estimate that nearly 2,000 Russian military targets would fall within the Tomahawks range. And Moscow isn't hiding its alarm.

Kremlin mouthpiece Dmitri Peskov warned against what he called a, quote, new escalation, stressing the Tomahawks are, quote, missiles that can also be nuclear, so this is indeed a serious escalation, he said. Well, to be fair, Dmitri, the serious escalation was when Putin decided to invade a sovereign nation. Russia's deputy foreign minister piled on, saying the diplomat, momentum from Trump's August summit with Putin and Alaska had been, quote, largely exhausted for a while now since peace talks stalled. He called the potential sailed tomahawks, quote, a step toward direct confrontation. And Putin has oscillated between dismissal and defiance on this matter.

The missiles, Putin said, won't change the balance of power on the battlefield, but their delivery would mark, quote, a qualitatively new stage of escalation. Complicating matters, if the sail is green-lit, is how the system would even be operated. Tomahawks are solely operated via U.S. personnel and technical oversight, an issue that both Washington and Moscow have identified as a potential red line. Inside the U.S. government, senior officials are weighing the operational and diplomatic implications, including whether to impose strict conditions on their use or delegate operational control to Ukrainian forces. Trump's envoy to Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg. seemed to hint at the president's evolving thought process since last month

when he told Fox News that Trump had already authorized Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes with American-made weapons, declaring that, quote, there are no such things as sanctuaries. That line has since sparked a policy debate in Washington, with some arguing that expanding Keeves' reach would deter Russia, while others fear it would risk widening the war's footprint. Okay, shifting to the Middle East. Israel's Shinbet says it uncovered a major Iranian smuggling route running from Syria through Jordan into the West Bank.

Part of what the security agency describes as Tehran's ongoing campaign to armed terror operatives focused on striking the Jewish state. According to the agency, the seized cash was extensive, 29 Claymore-type explosives, four drones, two of which were rigged with explosives, 15 anti-tank rockets with an RPG launcher, 20 hand grenades, more than 50 handguns, over a dozen assault rifles, and roughly 750 bullets. I believe there was also a partridge in a pear tree. The Shinbet said this case began months ago, when IDF troops detained a weapons dealer near the Ramallah area of the West Bank. His interrogation opened the first crack of the network.

There was a break that ultimately led investigators to the smuggling cell and the cash itself. The agency has not disclosed exactly where the interception occurred for security purposes. Israeli intelligence traced a smuggling effort to two elite divisions of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Oh, there they are again, the IRGC. Unit 4,000, the covert operations armor of the IRGC intelligence organization, and Unit 18840, the Kud's Force branch operating in Syria under the command of the IRC shadow unit 840. Are you keeping track of all these U.S. unit numbers? That division is believed to oversee assassinations and weapons transfers to proxy

groups across them at least. Both units, the Shinbet confirms, were also tied to weapons smuggling attempts, also thwarted in March and November of 2024. Two IRGC operatives involved in those plots were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon in July of this year. The agency said in a statement, quote, this shipment, like its predecessors, it's part of an ongoing Iranian effort to undermine security in the region by arming terrorist cells on the ground, whose purpose is to carry out attacks against Israelis and IDF troops, end quote. Shinbet said this seizure confirmed Iran's broader objective is to flood the West Bank with advanced weaponry, effectively transforming it into a second front against Israel.

It's an escalation that intelligence has warned about since the onset of the Gaza War. Weapons smuggling has long haunted Israel's eastern frontier with Jordan. It's a vast stretch forming the Jewish state's tri-country border with Syria. Unlike Israel's fortified borders with Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt, much of the Jordanian border remains thinly guarded, an inviting corridor for traffickers backed by the Mullahs proxies. In response, the IDF established the 96th Gellad Division in June. It's a regional command dedicated to securing the northern half of the Jordanian border in attempts to intercept smuggling operations before they reach the West Bank.

The Israeli Defense Ministry also pledged new fencing and surveillance systems along that frontier to close one of the Jewish state's last open flanks. Israeli security officials believe that the Iranian regime coordinates its weapons transfers through Syria and Lebanon, where IRGC units operate along with Khazbalah and affiliated militias. From there, the shipments are routed across Jordan, using local criminal networks that conceal the weapons in commercial cargo or private vehicles. The latest intercepted shipment underscores Iran's determination to pursue their long-standing goal of destroying Israel through their proxies. If the region, frankly, is to ever have long-term stability, the people of Iran will have to decide that they've had enough of the repressive Mullahs and their brutal IRGC.

Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, authorities say they've caught the man behind California's devastating Palisades' fire. He's accused of setting the blaze that left 12 people dead and thousands of homes and businesses destroyed. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a great way to help you maintain a healthy weight. Now, did you know that by the time the average person hits 60 years of age, they've lost and regained several hundred pounds? Doctors call it weight cycling, and half of Americans reportedly do it. And if you do it enough, well, you're at risk of diabetes, liver damage, heart attack, and stroke. weight cycling is when you lose 10 pounds or so, but then you put the pounds back, plus a couple more.

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In today's back of the brief, federal prosecutors have announced the arrest of the man accused of starting California's deadliest wildfire on record that Palisades fire. 29-year-old Jonathan Rindernecht, a Florida-based Uber driver, with what investigators describe as an obsession with dystopian imagery and despair, is now charged with malicious destruction by means of fire. Authorities say that Rindernecht intentionally sparked the inferno that tore through the Pacific Palisades in Los Angeles on New Year's Day. killing 12 people and destroying more than 6,000 homes and buildings. The blaze caused an estimated $150 billion in damage. It's the most devastating wildfire in the city's history. According to the criminal complaint, Rinderneck dropped off passengers near a hiking trail shortly after midnight, appearing, quote, agitated and angry.

Moments later, he allegedly set a small brush fire that firefighters quickly extinguished. But the fire continued smoldering underground for days, before reigniting into the catastrophic balasades blaze. Investigators say Rindernecht didn't just set the fire. He documented it. After sparking the initial flames, he allegedly filmed the scene on his phone while listening to a rap song whose music video depicts the artist setting fires. Court papers also reveal he had watched that same video repeatedly in the days leading up to the attack.

Prosecutors say that as the flames spread, Rindernecht called 911 to report the blaze, even as he typed into ChatGPT, quote, Are you at fault if a fire is lit because of your cigarettes? He then followed responding fire trucks back to the scene and recording several videos as crews battled to contain the inferno. Those videos were later recovered from his phone. Evidence also shows that months before the fire, Rindranek had used ChatGPT to generate a dystopian painting

of a burning city divided into panels, one side depicting a forest fire, another a crowd fleeing in time. terror. Rinderneck initially denied involvement, but allegedly revealed details about the fire's origin that had not been made public. He was arrested Tuesday in Florida and will be extradited to California to stand trial. If convicted, prosecutors say the malicious intent behind the Palisades fire could make him eligible for the death penalty. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Thursday, the 9th of October. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I do hope you do, Well, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com.

And, of course, don't forget to check out our YouTube channel. I hope you'll take a look at that and subscribe. You can find that on YouTube, of course, at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Lots of places can expose you to identity theft. Oh, no. That's why LifeLock monitors 100.

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