The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | April 17th, 2024: Russia's Staggering Troop Losses & The Fragile State Of US-China Relations

Episode Date: April 17, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin:    A new report is shedding light on Russian troop deaths inside the meat grinder on Ukraine’s front lines, as President Volodymyr Zelensky moves to boost military conscriptions to counter Putin’s ongoing aggression. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to his Chinese counterpart for the first time in more than a year Tuesday as tensions continue to flare in the South China Sea.  To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin.  Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin, or I guess I should say the PDB late afternoon bulletin. Just made my way back across the country on a couple of flights and got back to the PDB secret layer a little bit later than expected. Anyway, I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First, a new report is shedding light on Russian troop deaths on Ukraine's front lines as President Zelenskyy moves to boost military conscriptions to counter Putin's ongoing aggression. Also, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with China's defense minister on Tuesday. That was their first conversation in more than a year amid increased Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Now, no offense, but with the current

conflicts, instability, and tensions, you'd like to think that the defense ministers from the two leading global powers would chat more frequently than once every year or so. But for our afternoon spotlight. We're learning more about just how many soldiers the Putin regime has sacrificed in their war of attrition against Ukraine, even as Russia gears up for a renewed offensive against the Ukrainian military. A report from the BBC on Monday confirmed that at least 50,000, that's 50,000 Russian troops have died fighting in Ukraine since the initial invasion in February of 2022. The bloodshed is a reflection of the Kremlin. one's so-called meat grinder strategy, which involves flooding conflict zones with overwhelming

numbers of troops with little regard to their lives. Notably, the report found that Russian troop deaths accelerated year over year, rising by nearly 25% in the second year of fighting, amounting to 27,300 Russian casualties. The increase coincided with major Russian offensive operations across 2023 in the Dénetz region. Russia's capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Divka last fall, for example, proved especially bloody. The outlet noted that the real number of deaths is likely significantly higher, but verifying that information can prove next to impossible, given that the Kremlin does not disclose

their losses. For example, the BBC said their figures did not include deaths of militia in Russian-occupied Denetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, which have been significant. This includes losses attributed to Russia's paramilitary force, the Wagner Group, remember them, which has also seen their ranks devastated by more than two years of fighting. As we've previously discussed on the PDB, U.S. intelligence agencies said in December that some 315,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded since the war began.

That figure has since been revised upward to roughly 355,000, nearly the total number of ground troops that Moscow had at the start of their invasion. It's critical to note, however, that the U.S. intelligence assessment does not have separate estimates for how many were killed versus how many were wounded. The losses, however, are staggering for Russia. The 50,000 estimate from BBC, for example, is more than three times the losses incurred by Russia during 10 years of fighting in the Soviet-Afghan War of the 1980s. In that conflict, across a decade, Russia lost nearly 15,000 men. So what has all that Russian blood bought Putin?

Well, his strategy has resulted in nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory coming under Russian control. Unlike leaders in Kiev, Putin appears to have absolutely no angst about sending Russian men to their deaths on the front lines to achieve his aims. Odd. Putin always struck me as a compassionate, empathetic individual, much like Stalin did. In Ukraine, meanwhile, President Zelensky signed a controversial law on Tuesday that expands the military's ability to conscript citizens into service. Specifically, the law requires all eligible male citizens to update their draft data with the authorities to make it easier for officials to identify possible recruits. To date, many draft eligible men have avoided the war by staying out of contact with authorities. The bill will also offer financial incentives to recruits, including cash bonuses or money toward

buying a house or car, while increasing penalties on those who try to evade the draft. A recent report from BBC estimated that roughly 650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age have fled Ukraine over the past two years, and the government in Kiev has opened roughly 9,000 criminal cases regarding draft dodging. The new conscription law came just weeks after Ukraine. lowered their eligible draft age from 27 to 25, as the country is in desperate need of fresh recruits to replenish their frontline forces. In terms of losses, Ukraine has stated that roughly 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far in the war. But like with Russia's figure, analysts estimate the real number is higher. While neither country, for obvious reasons,

has been transparent about their casualty counts, it's clear that Putin's war has taken a devastating human toll. Despite the losses, Russia is now reportedly preparing for a new phase of military mobilization of up to 300,000 people ahead of a planned summer offensive. Coming up after the break, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to his Chinese counterpart for the first time in more than a year, Tuesday, as tensions continue to flare over a variety of issues, including China's continued aggressive behavior in the South China Sea. I'll be right back. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right.

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Your music deserves Bose. Find your perfect product at Bose.com. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. Well, it's one step forward and one step back when it comes to U.S. relations with China. Actually, okay, not to be pedantic, but that would imply that the relations are neither improving nor deteriorating since one step forward and one step back puts you, well, right back where you started. One step forward suggests that there's something positive happening with U.S. China relations. And since there's not, let's just stick with one step back.

U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, held a virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun, yesterday. Now, that would be the first time that the pair have spoken in more than a year. It's frankly amazing that the Pentagon could find the Post-it note with Dong's phone number. According to the Department of Defense, the two leaders spoke on an assortment of topics, including defense relations between the U.S. and China, as well as both regional and global security issues. During a briefing, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Major General Pat Ryder told reporters that Austin emphasized the significance of respecting the freedom of navigation in the high seas as established by international law, particularly in the South China Sea. Ryder also reaffirmed the United States' commitment to continue flying, sailing, and operating safely and responsibly in regions permitted by international law. Austin also reaffirmed America's long-standing commitment to the one China policy, which asserts that there is only one sovereign state under the name China, which includes both mainland China and, of course, Taiwan.

Admiral Dong emphasized the importance of the Taiwan issue to Austin, telling the defense secretary that the Chinese People's Liberation Army, the PLA, is committed to opposing any activities promoting Taiwan's independence, as well as any external collaboration and support. for such movements. The call follows President Biden's meeting with China's President Xi Jinping back in November, where the two leaders promised to restore military-to-military communication. However, just 24 hours after Austin's call with his counterpart, we already have another incident that's raising tensions in the region. Oh, good. According to the U.S. military, a Navy patrol and reconnaissance aircraft flew through the Taiwan Strait today. That's the 100 miles straight that divides China and Taiwan. Although it's technically in international waters, China considers the passage of any foreign military aircraft or ships to be a challenge to its sovereignty,

makes them testy. A spokesperson for the Chinese People's Liberation Army said China scrambled fighter jets to monitor the U.S. plane's passage and to deliver a warning. Now, this back and forth after a high-level phone call is reminiscent of the recent phone conversation between Biden and Xi. Shortly after the two world leaders bit each other adieu and rang off, she had his Air Force and Navy engaged in a significant intrusion of Taiwanese air and sea space. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Wednesday, 17 April. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And be sure to check out our premium membership at PDB Premium.com.

I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Spring is the season everyone refreshes everything except their blinds. People put it off because they think it's complicated. But at blinds.com, we've spent 30 years proving it's not. Right now, you can save big during the Spring Cyber Monday sale. Whether you want to DIY it or have a pro to handle everything from measure to install,

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