The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 10th, 2024: Syria's Al-Golani: Terrorist or Liberator? & China's Escalating War Games Against Taiwan

Episode Date: December 10, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin:   First, with the fall of the Assad regime, there is one major question on the minds of America’s top national security officials: do Syria’s rebels still deserve their international terrorist designation? Then, in the latest escalation from the South China Sea, the Chinese military has staged their largest show of force in decades in the waters around Taiwan. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First, with Syrian rebel leadership, naming a new interim prime minister in an attempt to avoid a dangerous power vacuum following their overthrow of the Assad regime, debate is raging in Washington, D.C. over whether the Islamist rebel insurgents will break from their radical past. We'll discuss the current debate over whether the West can trust Syria's new leaders. There's so much pontificating and punditory happening right now in the West. Then, in the latest escalation from the South

China Sea, because of course, that's what we needed right now, a bit of escalation. The Chinese military has staged their largest show of force in decades in the waters around Taiwan, a likely message to the incoming Trump administration about the consequences of intervention. But first, our afternoon spotlight. With the fall of the Assad regime and a new interim government starting to take shape, well, sort of, one of the top questions on the minds of America's senior national security officials is, do Syria's rebels still warrant their international terrorist designation?

Meaning, can the rebel leaders follow through with action to support their claims that they want to form a pluralistic, inclusive government to respect all Syrians? Now, no one in the West, of course, is mourning the fall of Assad and his brutally repressive regime, which collapsed on Sunday just 10 days after the rebel insurgents began their lightning offensive in northern Syria. But with this toppling, difficult questions remain regarding what type of government will fill the void, namely whether we'll be looking at a pivot towards moderation or a government steeped in the principles of radical Islam. The somewhat loose coalition of Islamist rebels is led by the militant group Hayat-Harir al-Sharm,

or known as HTS, a former arm of al-Qaeda that used to be called the Nusra front. Now, HTS, and this is where it gets complex, is a U.S. designated terror organization that fought against U.S.-backed forces in the region during the Civil War, but has since positioned themselves as moderates focused on the liberation of Syria. Their leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a Syrian native, began as a fighter for the Islamic state of Iraq, before being dispatched back to Syria after the Civil War kicked off in 2011 to further the interests of al-Qaeda and the emerging ISIS terrorist groups. But as fissures emerged between the terrorist groups, Al-Jolani cited with al-Qaeda and turned on his ISIS backers in Iraq.

He then moved to brutally eliminate competitors and former allies among the many extremist organizations opposing Assad, eventually renouncing his longtime ties to al-Qaeda. That's it, fellas, we're through. He rebranded his organization as HTS in 2016 and framed it as a, quote, salvation government, rooted in the values of pluralism and tolerance. That all sounds good, doesn't it? The cynical rebranding worked to broaden the group's public support, but as a former counterterrorism envoy for the Trump administration put it, quote, when you look at his resume, well, it's a terrorist resume.

According to an exclusive report from Politico, senior U.S. defense officials are currently engaged in a furious debate, oh, it's furious, over whether Al Jolani's supposed transformation is authentic, and if the terrorist designation on HTS should be lifted. Well, look, I'm no senior U.S. defense official, but I've got an idea. How about you wait to see if their actions match their words and platitudes? Skip the furious speculative debate for now, since nobody has any idea how this is going to shake out in the short term.

There, look at that. I fixed it for you. But, just in case you're wondering about the mechanics of a terrorism designation, and these days who isn't, under U.S. law, the president, through the Secretary of State, can choose to remove groups from the list of foreign terrorist organizations at any time, but the process is politically fraught, and yes, I use to the word fraught. No administration wants to be seen as soft on terror, of course, particularly if the choice to delist is premature and later backfires.

But officials say early signs out of Syria are promising. The rebels spent their first couple of days in Damascus, in, well, let's call them cordial conversations with Syria's sitting prime minister from the Assad regime. To date, the rebel, the leadership, named a new interim prime minister, and that would be Muhammad al-Bashir. Al-Bashir was the head of the HTS-de-factor government up in Idlib province. That was the rebel's primary stronghold prior to their offensive that brought the Assad regime to a quick end. Now, al-Bashir will lead a transitional government until 1 March 2025. He's already reportedly met with numerous members of Assad's government, and has implied that senior public officials and others need to stay in place to ensure that services to the people of Syria remain consistent.

So, I guess that's better than rounding up all officials of the Assad regime and making them walk the plank. In addition, the brand new interim government has reportedly offered amnesty to all Syrian soldiers and reservists. Now, so far, it does appear that the transition, to a new government has been relatively smooth and peaceful, but it's obviously early days. The rebels have also indicated that they will break with Islamic law and not implement oppressive policies on women. So, despite the early efforts of the rebels to appear moderate and restrained, there are others in the international community who are urging caution. Michael Herzog, Israel's ambassador to Washington, told Politico, quote,

there are no good guys in this story because you have jihadists. We don't want jihadists to put their hands on strategic capabilities like chemical or other types of capabilities that are there in Syria, end quote. Israel has already launched a series of airstrikes, targeting chemical weapons caches and other missile and air defense systems in Syria to ensure that they don't fall into rebel hands. But the skepticism, well, it's not unique to Israel. Many in Washington, particularly on the Republican side, question HTS's ability to de-radicalize after such a sweeping victory over Assad. They're advocating a wait-and-see approach with regards to HTS and Al-Jolani to learn if the group's rhetoric is truly sincere, well, that seems reasonable.

The problem is even more complex than what HTS intends to do. There are, after all, numerous other groups and factions that make up this coalition of rebels. And, uh, pardon me for being cynical, but once the pie starts getting divided up, they'll all want their peace. A former Trump administration official who worked on Middle East policy warned Politico, quote, lots of groups say the right thing as they come into power because they're concerned that their hold on power is fragile. And then, once they consolidate power, they focus on implementing their ideology, end quote. For now, analysts think that the terror designation and the sanctions that come with it will likely stay in place,

offering potential leverage to the incoming Trump administration as they work to navigate the many conflicts, currently gripping the Middle East. Coming up, in the latest escalation from the South China Sea, the Chinese have staged their largest show of force in decades in the waters around Taiwan. I'll be right back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at USAA.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. Taiwan's military is once again raising alarms over a significant Chinese naval and air force deployment near its borders, warning that such maneuvers could escalate into open

conflict as tensions in the Taiwan Strait reach a boiling point. According to Taiwanese defense officials, China has deployed roughly a dozen naval vessels and 47 military planes in regional waters and the timing, well, the timing is no coincidence. These maneuvers follow Taiwanese President Lai Ching does trip to the U.S. earlier this month, including stops in Hawaii and the island territory of Guam, where he spoke to congressional leaders. Beijing, which views Lai as a separatist, reacted furiously, of course they did, escalating tensions that were already high. As I'm sure you likely know, China's stance on Taiwan is longstanding. It sees the island as a breakaway province and has repeatedly vowed to reclaim it by force if necessary. The latest maneuvers come just weeks

except in the U.S. also approved a $2 billion arms package for Taiwan, including three national advanced surface-to-air missile systems. Now, this further upset Xi's regime in Beijing. A Taiwanese lieutenant general painted a grim picture of China's recent strategy, describing the naval deployments as forming, quote, two walls, one encircling Taiwan and another along the island chain, stretching from Japan to the Philippines. The lieutenant general stated, quote, the message they are sending is very simple, the Taiwan straight is ours, end quote. The scope of the operations, the lieutenant general added, suggests that China aims to demonstrate not only its capacity to isolate Taiwan, but also its ability to block U.S. allies from intervening.

While Taiwanese defense officials have described the deployment as without announcement and a training exercise, the lieutenant general issued a warning. Training could evolve into drills, and drills could escalate into war. Now, this isn't the first time that China has flexed its military muscle in response to one of Lai's activities. Following his inauguration in May and National Day speech in October, Beijing conducted massive military drills around Taiwan. Basically, anytime Lai gives a speech, Beijing throws its teddy out of the crib. Taiwan has responded by setting up an emergency response center, well, that should do it, and imposing flight restrictions in zones near China's east coast. effective through Wednesday. The U.S., meanwhile, continues to back Taiwan with arms sales,

diplomatic visits, and military operations. Now, past high-profile trips, like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's 2021 visit and Taiwan's former president meeting with Kevin McCarthy in 2023 have repeatedly provoked Chinese military exercises. With President-elect Donald Trump poised to take a tougher stance on Beijing, tensions show no signs of easing. His nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, has already pledged unwavering support for Taiwan, calling for increased defense spending on the island. Oh, look at that. Here comes another teddy. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday, 10 December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And don't forget, not that I'd ever let you,

to listen to the show ad-free, it's simple, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting BDBPremium.com. See, told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.