The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 18th, 2026: Inside Rubio’s Secret Talks Over Cuba’s Future & & Ukraine Negotiations Stall

Episode Date: February 18, 2026

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin: First up — we’re getting a revealing look at the White House’s quiet strategy for Cuba, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly opens backchannel discussions not with Havana’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, but with the grandson of Raul Castro. Later in the show — another round of trilateral peace talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine wraps up with little to show. Despite diplomatic efforts, the battlefield reality remains largely unchanged, raising fresh questions about whether negotiations can gain traction anytime soon. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Sundays for Dogs: Upgrade your dog’s food without the hassle—try Sundays for Dogs and get 50% off your first order at https://sundaysfordogs.com/PDB50 or use code PDB50 at checkout. American Financing: Call American Financing today to find out how customers are saving an avg of $800/mo. NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit http://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDB Cozy Earth: Visit https://www.CozyEarth.com/PDB & Use code PDB for up to 20% off Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It said everything happens for a reason, but maybe everything happens for a rees. Take noise-canceling headphones. Do they block hearing to heighten taste? Hmm. That sound seems to show. Everything happens for a recess. It's Wednesday, the 18th of February. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, we're getting a revealing look at the Trump administration's quiet, strategy for Cuba, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly opens back-channel discussions, not with Havana's president, but with Raul Castro's grandson. I'll have the details.

Later in the show, another round of U.S.-Russia-Ukraine peace talks comes and goes, with few tangible results and no clear path forward. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. Today we're getting a new look into the Trump administration's plans, possibly, for the future of Cuba. and more importantly, who they believe actually controls it. According to a new Axios report, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been holding quiet discussions not with Cuba's sitting president, that would be Miguel Diaz Canal,

but with the grandson of the island's aging revolutionary strongman Rao Castro. Now, as an aside, Rao Castro is now 95 years old. He served as the president of Cuba from 2008 to 2018, taking over from his older brother, the dictator, Fidel Castro, who died back in 2016. The administration appears to believe that despite formal titles in Havana, the real authority still runs through the Castro Family Network, and if you're planning for Cuba's future, that's where you start, or at least that apparently is where the White House has started.

Rubio's reported counterpart is Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, known as Rollito, the grandson of Raoul Castro, and the grand-nephew of late dictator Fidel Castro. He's also known by the nickname El Congreo, or the crab, reportedly due to a deformed finger. That might be slightly more information than you need. The 41-year-old grandson once served as his grandfather's bodyguard, and is connected to the military-controlled business conglomerate that dominates major sectors of the Cuban economy. But unlike the Revolutionary Old Guard, Relito is viewed by some analysts as part of a younger generation that's less ideological and more transactional, men who grew up inside the system,

but understand that revolutionary orthodoxy does not keep the lights on. These aren't being described as formal negotiations, by the way. One administration official characterized them as, quote, discussions about the future. The Trump administration has made it clear of its view. The regime has to go. But according to Axios, what replaces it, and who remains standing at the end of all of this, is, of course, still being decided.

Now, this is all happening in the context of what took place in Venezuela just last month. When U.S. forces captured indicted strongman Nicholas Maduro in a pre-dawn operation, Cuban intelligence and Cuban military officers guarding him were reportedly killed. American forces suffered no losses. That operation reportedly seriously shook the leadership in Havana. It demonstrated not only U.S. capabilities, but also the U.S.'s intention of shaping the future of Latin America. and then came the ongoing oil squeeze. As we've reported, Venezuela stopped supplying crude to Cuba after Maduro's capture.

Mexico has now pulled back shipments following tariff threats from President Trump. Washington has warned other suppliers against filling the gap. The result? The result is Cuba is now running on fumes. Fuel shortages continue to cascade through daily life. The power grid is failing. Hospitals are limiting surgeries. Blackouts are spreading.

tourism is drying up. And now the garbage is piling up. In Havana trash collection is slowed dramatically because trucks don't have fuel. Streets are seeing growing sanitation problems, and at the same time, Cuban drivers are facing months-long waits just to refuel their cars. The government has made it mandatory to use a state-run app called ticket to secure gasoline appointments. While this sounds efficient, some drivers report thousands of names ahead of them in the queue. Okay, not that efficient. stations are issuing as few as 50 appointments per day. Even when drivers finally reach the pump, they're capped at 20 liters, just over five gallons. Meanwhile, subsidized gasoline sold in local currency has been halted. Fuel is now priced in U.S. dollars. It's around $1.30 per liter

at official stations and up to $6 per liter on the black market. For government workers earning the equivalent of less than $20 a month, well, that's devastating. Airlines can no refuel reliably on the island. Some are stopping in the Dominican Republic instead, and banks are shortening hours to conserve electricity. And against that backdrop, Rubio is talking not to the Communist Party Old Guard, but to the heir apparent inside the Castro orbit. The reasoning is, if the regime fractures, Washington wants a communications channel. If there's a managed transition, Washington wants influence. And if someone inside the system decides the old revolutionary model has run its course, Washington wants that conversation to already be underway. Some analysts believe the administration

could replicate aspects of its Venezuela playbook, removing key figures while leaving parts of the governing structure intact to avoid chaos. But, here's the rub. Cuba, as I've mentioned before here on the PDB, is not Venezuela. There's no strong opposition movement waiting in the wings. The state apparatus is deeply entrenched, and opposition hardliners in both Havana, and Miami would no doubt seriously object if members of the Castro family were allowed to remain under any deal. President Trump has not made a final decision on Cuba's future, of course. This focus remains on larger geopolitical flashpoints, but the squeeze is clearly on, and the lines of communication are reportedly already open. All right, coming up next, the third round of peace talks between Ukraine

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Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin. The third U.S. brokered push for peace between Ukraine and Russia moved into its second day in Geneva, but it did not last long. After just two hours, the session ended, with the core disputes over territory and security still unresolved. That two-hour time frame is telling. As we discussed on today's PDB, negotiators had been locked in discussions for six hours just the day before, talks that Russian sources described as, quote, very tense.

And if you zoom out further, earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi also failed to produce a peace settlement, of course. Keev and Moscow, well, they keep returning to the table, but the gap between them doesn't appear to be narrowing. So what exactly, you ask, is keeping these negotiations moving forward? Well, for starters, expectations for progress were already low. Ukrainian President Zelensky described the latest session as, quote, difficult, acknowledging that progress had been discussed, but emphasizing that positions still differ. Earlier in the day, he accused Moscow of deliberately dragging out discussions that, from Keeves' perspective, could already be nearing a final stage. In other words, Ukraine believes Russia is slowing the process

while maintaining pressure on the front lines. And that takes us to the heart of the impasse, which, as you likely know, is territory. As has been consistently the case, Russia continues to demand control over major parts of eastern Ukraine, including the Donbass region, which it does not currently fully occupy. Selensky has been crystal clear that any proposal requiring Ukrainians to surrender land not actually held by Russian forces would be rejected if put to a national referendum. But territory isn't the only issue. Ukraine is also pressing for long-term Western security guarantees to prevent any future Russian aggression. Without credible guarantees, any ceasefire is simply a piece of paper sitting on top of a powder keg. Moscow has pushed back hard, insisting that any arrangement

cannot include Western troop deployments, a plan drawn up by several Western governments. Still, Keev argues its European allies must play a greater role in the process, calling their involvement indispensable, while EU capitals remain largely absent, at least for the time being, from efforts to push for a peace deal. But layered on top of all of this is renewed public pressure from President Trump, once again directed at Kiev. As in earlier phases of his effort to force movement, Trump is signaling urgency from Ukraine's side, arguing that momentum must come from the party defending its sovereignty. Now, frankly, this is part of the ongoing pattern of behavior from the White House, alternately declaring that Kiev is the problem inventing frustration with Zelensky,

and then pointing at Moscow and showing frustration and impatience with Putin. Apparently right now, Well, it's Zelensky's turn. From Washington's perspective, the goal is to accelerate negotiations before battlefield dynamics harden even further. Now, this latest push hasn't spiraled into the kind of open friction that we saw during last year's White House spat between the two leaders, but it has again placed Zelensky in the position of balancing Moscow's demands with the Trump administration's expectations. In recent days, Trump said, quote, Ukraine better come to the table fast, that's all I'm telling you. Zelensky pushed back, well, that's not a surprise in an interview with Axios, calling the president's demands, quote, not fair to urge concessions from Ukraine rather than from Russia.

After all, well, this is Putin's invasion. I mean, Moscow is responsible for this tragic almost five-year mess. When you step back, the dynamic of negotiations becomes clear. Diplomacy on one track, the grinding military campaign on the other, as the war enters its fifth year. So while negotiations may be active, sort of, there appears to be no resolution in sight. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Wednesday, the 18th of February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. Now, I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.

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