The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 6th, 2026: Putin’s Oil Revenue Collapses & Top Russian General Shot In Moscow

Episode Date: February 6, 2026

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin:  First—Behind the Kremlin’s battlefield posture, Russia’s economic foundation is quietly deteriorating. New data shows Moscow’s budget deficit on pace to nearly triple this year, as oil and gas revenues — the lifeblood of the Russian state — plunge to their lowest levels of the Putin era. Later in the show—A top Russian military intelligence officer was shot and seriously wounded in Moscow on Friday, marking the latest attack on Russia’s top brass inside the capital. I’ll break down what happened, who Moscow is blaming, and how this could impact peace efforts. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief CBDistillery: Visit https://CBDistillery.com and use promo code PDB for 25% off your entire order! PDS Debt: You’re 30 seconds away from being debt free with PDS Debt. Get your free assessment and find the best option for you at https://PDSDebt.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's Friday the 6th of February. Welcome to the BDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, it appears that the Kremlin is starting to feel real financial strain. New numbers show Russia's budget deficit widening sharply as oil and gas revenues plunge to their lowest levels of the Putin era. We'll look at what that might mean for Putin's war effort.

Later in the show, a top rinketheaval. Russian military intelligence officer was shot and seriously wounded in Moscow on Friday, marking the latest attack on Russia's top brass in the Russian capital. I'll have the details. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We're continuing to monitor the Russian economy, and today we're seeing some of the clearest signals yet that the long-term financial erosion that we've been talking about for months now is showing up directly in the numbers that matter most to the Kremlin. According to new reporting, Russia's federal budget deficit is now on track to almost triple this year, widening far beyond what the government initially planned as oil and

gas revenues continue to slide. That's a significant shift for a system that has long relied on energy income as the backbone of its GDP, funding everything from pensions and regional subsidies to defense spending and, of course, Putin's war machine. As regular listeners know, oil and gas revenues have historically been the single largest source of income for the Russian state. But President Trump issued aggressive sanctions on Russian oil exports back in October. Since then, Russia's pool of foreign buyers has shrunk, with countries Moscow once relied on, including India, pulling back under sanctions pressure. According to our report from Reuters, internal budget estimates now show Moscow facing a much larger gap between what it's taking in and what it's committing to spend.

That's not good financial planning. Specifically, the projected deficit is now nearly three times higher than the level originally forecast by the government, rising to roughly 3.5 to 4.4% of gross domestic product, up from a target of about 1.6%. That shortfall is emerging even as the Kremlin maintains elevated wartime spending levels. Separate reporting underscores just how acute the pressure has become. According to recent data from Russia's own finance ministry, oil and gas revenues are down by roughly 50% year over year, and at current rates now amount to just about 2% of Russia's GDP.

That's the lowest level seen during Vladimir Putin's presidency. That decline isn't limited to export duties alone. It also includes mineral extraction taxes and pipeline fees, some of the most politically important and reliable sources of state income for the Kremlin. Even continued exports to China have not been enough to offset the damage. Russian crude is still moving, but increasingly at steep discounts and higher transport costs, with sanctions-related inefficiencies further eating into profits. At the same time, exports to other major buyers, including India, have shown signs of decline, further narrowing Moscow's revenue base. For example, a source told Reuters that Russian officials

expect Indian purchases of Russian oil to decline an additional 30% this year, following pressure from the Trump administration. Total budget revenues are now expected to fall by about 6% to roughly 37.9 trillion rubles, marking a significant contraction for an economy already plagued by high interest rates and labor shortages. At the same time, overall expenditures may exceed planned levels by anywhere from 4.1 to 8.4%. That's according to the same internal estimates. However, despite the dismal numbers, Kremlin's sources are putting on a happy face, claiming to Reuters that the situation is not catastrophic and remains manageable. But analysts that spoke to Reuters warned that at the current pace, Russia's remaining fiscal reserves,

estimated at about 4.1 trillion rubles, that's about 53 billion U.S. dollars, could be largely depleted within a year. So while Moscow may not be facing immediate economic collapse, the trajectory seems clear, almost inevitable. The longer this war continues under sanctions pressure, the harder it becomes for the Kremlin to fund both the conflict abroad and stability at home. All right, coming up next, as shooting in Moscow has left a top Russian intelligence figure seriously wounded, marking the latest attack on Russia's top brass in Moscow. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask you a question. When was the last time that you woke up actually feeling rested, I mean truly rested? Or when was the last time you got through a day without

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if you're somebody who just wants the facts so you can make your own decisions, keeping it real with Jillian Michaels is the show for you. Subscribe now wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. Sticking with Russia and the war in Ukraine, Moscow is waking up to another stark reminder that this conflict it started isn't simply contained to the front lines. According to multiple reports, a senior Russian military intelligence official was shot and seriously wounded inside a residential building in Moscow on Friday, an attack that Russian officials were already treating as part of a shadow campaign of targeted assassinations by Ukrainian intelligence. Russian investigators said an unidentified gunman fired several shots at Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexiev, the deputy head of the GRU, that's Russia's military intelligence agency, before fleeing the

scene. Reuters reports that Alexev was rushed to the hospital in serious condition, suffering wounds to his arm, leg, and chest. Alexiev is a decorated officer, having previously received the Hero of Russia award from Putin himself, and his position as deputy head of the GRU places him squarely in the machinery driving Russia's war in Ukraine. He also has a rather infamous reputation in the West for allegedly orchestrating various plots prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Alexiev was sanctioned by the U.S. over cyber interference tied to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the European Union sanctioned him over the 2018 poisoning, a former Russian spy Sergei Scrippel and his daughter in Salisbury, England. So how did it

attacker get close enough to hit a figure of this stature in a residential building in Moscow. Details remain murky, but initial reporting suggests that the attacker may have been lying and wait for Alexiev as he left for work. Pro-Kremlin journalists and war bloggers are already openly asking why senior figures like this aren't better protected, especially given that this is far from the first such incident. The Kremlin's reaction underscored both the gravity and the sensitivity of what happened. Putin has reportedly been briefed, and Russia's intelligence services are now investigating. The Kremlin said it hoped Alexiev would survive and recover, while a spokesman also acknowledged the broader wartime

reality. High-level commanders are at risk, whether on the front lines or in Russia's capital. As for who's behind the attack, well, Russia's pointing the finger at Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Kiev of engaging in a, quote, terrorist act, framing it as an attempt to sabotage Beestalks, yes, because the Kremlin's working so hard to establish peace, though, of course, Lavrov offered no evidence. Officials in Ukraine, meanwhile, have not commented. But Ukraine's intelligence service has increasingly targeted Moscow's top brass as part of a lethal assassination program, capable of reaching deep inside Russian territory, sending a clear message to the Kremlin that no one is safe. Last April, for example, Ukrainian intelligence

took out the deputy chief of the Russian general staff's main operational directorate, with a car bomb just 20 miles outside Moscow. Operatives had been tracked. his movements closely, demonstrating a level of sophistication on the part of Keeb's intelligence services that left Russian officials stunned. After the assassination, Ukrainian officials said they would continue to target all individuals involved in war crimes against Ukraine. That attack came after the December 2024 assassination of a general leading Russia's nuclear, biological, and chemical protection forces. He was killed when a bomb concealed in a scooter detonated outside his Moscow apartment building, and that assassination came just five days after a leading Russian missile scientist was shot dead

in a forest outside Moscow in its attack linked to Ukraine's military intelligence service. But I want to stress again that it's unclear at this time whether Ukraine is behind this latest attack in Moscow. The timing, however, is notable. It comes after the latest round of U.S. brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi concluded on Thursday, talks that included Alexiev's boss, the head of Russia's GRU. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Friday the 6th of February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, well, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief

by visiting PDB premium.com. And as you've probably seen on billboards all around town, every Friday, we launch a brand new episode of our PDB situation report, hitting the airwaves tonight. night, of course, at 10 p.m. on the first TV. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel. That's at President's Daily Brief, as well as podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back over the weekend with the BDB Situation Report. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion-dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side.

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