The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | June 30th, 2026: Can Moscow Still Achieve Victory?

Episode Date: June 30, 2026

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin: Can Russia still win the war in Ukraine? Mike Baker examines where the conflict stands after more than four years of fighting and what victory would actually look like for Moscow. We explore Russia's military strengths and weaknesses, the state of Ukraine's defenses, and how manpower, industrial production, sanctions, and Western support are shaping the battlefield. Finally, we assess the most likely paths forward, whether either side can achieve its objectives, and what intelligence analysts are watching for as the war enters its next phase. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President's Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Acre Gold: Turn your pocket change into physical 24-karat gold and enter to win a limited-edition Hot Wheels gold bar at https://GetAcreGold.com/PDB Goldbelly: Celebrate America’s 250th with iconic foods delivered—get free shipping and 20% off your first order at https://GOLDBELLY.com with code PDB. HomeServe: Protect your home systems from expensive repairs with https://HomeServe.com/dailybrief and get 50% off your first year of coverage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This spring, denim gets a softer, lighter update. Introducing Old Navy's drapey denim wide leg, a new fit that moves with you. It's everything you want denim to feel like for summer. Easy, breathable, and effortlessly cool. With a fit that creates natural movement and a wide leg that feels modern, not overwhelming. Plus, that signature, wait, for this price, moment. Old Navy's drapey denim wide leg. It's Tuesday, the 30th of June.

Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Now, as mentioned during this morning's PDB, here at the President's Daily Brief, we decided we'll take a couple of days off from the grind of the daily news cycle to bring you a look at some of the overall geopolitical issues and top-line questions that sometimes get lost in the constant rush of the fast-breaking headlines. The PDB team, of course, is keeping an eye on breaking news and will update as warranted. But for just two or three days, we thought we'd turn our focus to the bigger picture questions to present a few special intelligence briefings, a respite, if you will, from the daily news cycle. And today's question for this afternoon's bulletin is one that's become increasingly difficult to answer as the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year. And that question is, well, can Russia still win?

At first glance, the answer might seem somewhat obvious. After all, more than four years have passed since Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine back in February of 2022. The conflict has consumed hundreds of thousands of lives, reshaped European security, and transformed Russia's relationship with the West. Yet, despite all of that, the war remains unresolved. Russia controls significant portions of Ukrainian territory, yet Ukraine remains independent and continues to resist. And Russia has not achieved the objective. that it's set for itself at the beginning of the conflict, which raises a fundamental question. How do we evaluate success in a war that's become defined by endurance, by a World War I style of

grinding, slow, costly gains rather than dramatic battlefield breakthroughs? Well, to answer that, we first need to go back to the beginning. When Russian tanks first rolled across the border in February of 2022, the conventional wisdom at the time was that Moscow possessed nearly every meaningful advantage. Putin and, frankly, countless pundits and analysts expected Russian forces to be in Kiev within weeks, if not days. After all, Russia's economy was significantly larger than Ukraine's. Its military was larger, better equipped, and widely regarded as one of the most capable fighting forces in the world. It possessed thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, a powerful air force, long-range missile capabilities and a substantial advantage in manpower. Now, the initial invasion was built

around speed. Russian forces pushed toward Kiev for multiple directions. Airborne troops attempted to seize key infrastructure, armored columns raised toward the capital. The expectations seemed to be that Ukraine's government would collapse, resistance would fragment, and Moscow would quickly establish a friendly regime. Instead, almost everything for the Kremlin went wrong. Ukrainian forces fought far more effectively than many observers anticipated. President Zelensky remained in Kiev. Russian logistics broke down. Command and control problems emerged.

Western countries rapidly supplied military aid, intelligence support, and economic assistance. Within weeks, the assumptions that had shaped the opening phase of the war began to unravel. Russian forces ultimately withdrew from northern Ukraine and abandoned their effort to seize Kiev. What had initially appeared to be a war of fast maneuvers gradually evolved into a grinding war of attrition focused largely on eastern and southern Ukraine. And as the nature of the war changed, so did the balance of advantages. Russia still possessed significant strengths. It retained a larger population, a larger economy, and a greater ability to absorb casualties. It maintained substantial

military industrial capacity and continued producing weapons, of course, ammunition, and military equipment despite extensive sanctions. But many of the advantages that seemed overwhelming back in February of 2022 proved less decisive than expected. Ukraine demonstrated a remarkable capacity to mobilize its population. Western military aid narrowed some of the technological gaps between the two sides. Precision weapons, drones, intelligence support, and air defense systems helped Ukraine offset some of Russia's numerical advantages. And over time, both sides adapted. Russia adjusted its tactics, expanded defense production, and increasingly shifted its economy

toward a wartime footing. Ukraine strengthened defensive positions, integrated new weapons systems, and continued drawing support from Western partners. The result is the battlefield reality that we see today. A war that was expected to last weeks has stretched into years. A conflict that many expected Russia to dominate has become a costly, struggle for incremental gains measured in meters and kilometers rather than regions. And perhaps most importantly, a war that once seemed likely to produce a clear winner has

evolved into something far murkier. Because while Russia has failed to achieve many of its original objectives, Ukraine has also struggled to reclaim large portions of occupied territory. Both sides continue to fight, of course. Both sides continued to suffer losses. And both sides continue to insist that victory remains possible, which brings us to the central question of today's briefing. When we ask whether Russia can still win the war in Ukraine, what exactly do we mean by win? Because depending on how we define victory, the answer may be very different. All right, coming up after the break, we'll examine what victory actually means in modern warfare, why Russia's goals, although not their demands, have evolved since 2022, and whether or

the Kremlin still has a realistic path to achieving them. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. How many times during the week do you drop, I don't know, 10 or 20 or 30 on essentially meaningless items? You know what I'm talking about, impulse buys or just stuff that you honestly don't need. Now, those impulse purchases, they add up, and by the end of the week or month, you're wondering where your money's gone. Well, let me tell you what you could be doing with that money. Acre gold lets you turn that lost money into physical, 24-carat Swiss gold. You pick a plan, your balance builds, and once you hit the price of a bar, they ship it straight to your door. It's really that simple. It's real gold in your hand, and that's an

asset that's been valuable since the dawn of civilization. And for the collectors, get this, Acre just dropped the limited edition Hot Wheels collection. Remember Hot Wheels? Sound good with those. These are officially licensed by Mattel, strictly capped, and once they're gone, their history. And while you're there, claim your free entry to the Speed Club sweepstakes. They're giving away one gram and 10-gram gold Hot Wheels bars in official collector's packaging. Start investing in a solid physical asset for just $30 at getacregold.com slash PDB. Once again, that's getacregold.com slash PDB. Subscribe today.

Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, this 4th of July, of course, it's right around the corner, but it's a big one. The nation's 250th birthday, right? How about that? Celebrate right, though, with America's favorite foods from Gold Belly. You got to do it upright. It's the 250th birthday. Come on. Goldbelly is the official food marketplace of America's 250th, bringing iconic local favorites straight to your door.

Look, whether it's Terry Black's barbecue from Austin or Lou Malnadi's deep dish pizza from Chicago or Junior's cheesecake from New York, they've got America's best. I ordered Terry Black's barbecue for a recent summer get-together at the old Baker compound, and let me tell you, while you might at first be skeptical about ordering barbecue online, the quality was outstanding. Shipping was easy and everything arrived fresh and delicious. It brought an authentic Texas experience right to Madorstep. And like everything that Goldbelly delivers, it arrived fast and perfectly packed. So if you're looking for a great way to celebrate America's 250th, or maybe you just want to host an epic party or barbecue this summer, go to Goldbelly.com and get free shipping and 20% off your first order with promo code PDB.

Again, that's goldbelly.com code PDB for free shipping and 20% off your first order. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you probably have noticed, but I thought I'd mention it. Summer has arrived. And, of course, with it, hot days and warm nights. And those warm nights, that heat, well, it can make getting a good night's sleep nearly impossible. Luckily, there's cozy earth. Cozy Earth is the answer to a cool, comfortable night's rest. Look, we've got cozy earth sheets at the Baker compound, and they are a game changer. There are ultra-soft bamboo sheets. Let me tell you something. After a hot, humid day, they feel like pure resort-level luxury. And unlike standard cotton sheets, the trap body heat, Cozy Earth's fabric stays cool and crisp all night long. Also, looking for premium outdoor comfort, well, they've got you covered. Cozy Earth's beach towels, you've got to get to the beach, offer an unmatched softness and quality that completely outperforms regular towels. It's an elevated luxury that everyone deserves, so you've got to get yourself some. Plus, shopping is entirely risk-free. Cozy Earth backs betting purchases with an industry-leading 10-year warranty commodity commodity commodity commodity commodity.

a 10-year warranty and a 100-night hassle-free return trial period. Look, made using viscous from bamboo, these sheets are breathable, they're soft, and they're built for summer. Head on over to cozyearth.com and use my code PDB for an exclusive 20% off. That's code PDB for an exclusive 20% off. And if you see a post-purchase survey, do me a favor. Mention that you heard about Cozy Earth right here on the PDB. Hey, Bill O'Reilly here. please check out my new interview series. We'll do it live. Each Thursday, I sit down with the most

influential people in America. We're a no-spin-chat, no script, anything could happen. You can find we'll do it live on Bill O'Reilly.com, YouTube, or wherever you download your podcasts. Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin. Now, before the break, we talked about how Russia entered the war with what appeared to be overwhelming advantages only to find itself locked in a prolonged conflict that's lasted far longer than almost anyone anticipated. And that brings us to the central question of today's briefing. Can Russia still win? Well, the answer depends entirely on how we define victory. If we use the objectives that appeared to drive the initial invasion in February of 2022, the answer is probably no. Russia's early campaign was clearly aimed at far more than territorial gains.

Moscow appeared to believe it could rapidly seize Kiev, topple President Zelensky's government, and fundamentally reshape Ukraine's political orientation, ending up with a Belarus-like arrangement where the leader is a Kremlin puppet. The Kremlin spoke openly about the need to demilitarize and, quote, denotify Ukraine, terms that in practical terms suggested an effort to bring the country firmly back into Russia's sphere of influence. Those objectives now appear largely out of reach. Ukraine remains an independent state, of course. Its government remains intact, its military remains in the field, and rather than being pushed away from the West, Ukraine has become more closely aligned with Europe and the U.S. than at any point in its modern history. So if that was the definition of victory, then Russia failed years ago. But wars have a way of changing the objectives of everyone involved. What begins as an ambitious campaign often evolves into something narrower and more achievable. Political leaders, leaders suggest their expectations, military commanders adapt to realities on the ground, and strategic goals shift. And that's exactly what appears to have happened with Ukraine. Today, Russia's path to

victory looks very different than it did in 2022. Instead of conquering Ukraine, the Kremlin may simply be seeking to secure and retain the territory that it currently controls. Instead of replacing the government in Kiev, it may be focused on ensuring that Ukraine never becomes a fully integrated member of NATO. And perhaps, most importantly, Moscow may be betting that time is on Russia's side. This last point is particularly important. Wars are not won solely on battlefields. They're also won or lost through politics and economics and public will. From the Kremlin's perspective, one possible path to victory involves simply outlasting its opponents. Russia's leadership understands that democratic governments face political pressures that

authoritarian systems often don't. Elections occur, public attention shifts, economic concerns emerge, voters grow tired of distant conflicts, political priorities change. If support for Ukraine weakens among its key backers, Moscow may conclude that it can achieve through patience what it could not achieve through rapid military action. But that doesn't mean that such a strategy is guaranteed to succeed, of course. Russia faces serious challenges of its own. The war has imposed enormous economic costs. Casualties have been staggering. Equipment losses have been significant. Sanctions continue to restrict portions of the Russian economy. And while Russia has adapted far better than many analysts initially predicted, maintaining a wartime footing year after year creates pressures that

can't be ignored indefinitely. Demographics also remain a concern. Like many developed nations, Russia faces long-term population challenges, sustaining military recruitment while simultaneously maintaining economic productivity is not an easy balancing act. Then there's a simple reality that Ukraine continues to fight. One of the most persistent mistakes analysts made in the early stages of the war was underestimating Ukrainian resilience. That same mistake can be made today in reverse. Just as Russia proved less capable than expected in some areas, Ukraine has demonstrated a determination and capacity for resistance that continues to surprise many observers. As a result, neither side appears capable of achieving a decisive breakthrough.

And that's, of course, what makes this conflict so difficult to analyze. When people ask whether Russia can still win, they're often imagining dramatic battlefield developments, massive offensives, collapsing front lines, a clear military decision. But many wars don't end that way. Some conclude through negotiations, others through exhaustion, still others through a gradual recognition that neither side can achieve its maximal objectives. In that sense, the most likely outcome may not be a clear Russian victory or a clear Ukrainian victory. It may be some form of settlement, ceasefire, frozen conflict, or long-term stalemate that leaves both sides claiming

success and both sides dissatisfied with the result. Yet even that possibility highlights the central point of today's discussion. Russia does not need to achieve all of its original objectives, in order to claim some version of victory. If it retains significant territory, if it prevents Ukraine from fully integrating into Western security structures, if it convinces enough international actors that the conflict can't be resolved militarily,

well, Moscow may argue that it achieved its most important goals. Whether the rest of the world accepts that interpretation, well, that's another matter entirely. So, the question, can Russia still win the war in Ukraine? If victory means conquering Ukraine and replacing its government, the answer then is likely no. If victory means securing territorial gains, preserving Russian influence, and outlasting its opponents physically and economically, and the answer becomes much more complicated. The battlefield has changed. The objectives have evolved. The assumptions that existed in the early

days of the war have largely disappeared. The version of victory available to Moscow today looks very different from the one that Vladimir Putin envisioned when the first Russian tanks crossed the border. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday, the 30th of June. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirstTV.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, it's very simple to do,

just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners everywhere. Look, think about the last time one of your home systems or appliances failed you, right? A pipe burst or your AC quit during a heat wave.

That's typically when the AC quits. Remember that sudden panic, you know, scrambling for a plumber or electrician knowing you're going to pay anything to fix it. And yeah, it's not a happy memory. Now, these home issues and breakdowns often cost more than car repairs. And standard insurance, of course, won't cover the wear and tear. That's why homeserve is a game changer. It's like a subscription for your home, starting at $4.99 a month. Trust me, if I had a breakdown, home serve is who I'd want.

They've got an A-plus rating with a Better Business Bureau and a 24-7 hotline. They are always within reach. Look, the truth is your next costly home repair is coming. That's just how life works. Act now and get protected with a plan through homeserve. For 50% less on your first year, go to homeserve.com slash daily brief to find the plan that's right for you. That's homeserve.com slash daily brief for 50% off. Savings are compared to renewal price void in Florida.