The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | March 10, 2026: Intel Bombshell: War Unlikely To Topple Iran’s Regime & Lebanon Turns On Hezbollah

Episode Date: March 10, 2026

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: A newly revealed classified U.S. intelligence assessment casts doubt on one of the central assumptions behind the war with Iran — that military force could trigger regime change in Tehran. According to the report, even a large-scale campaign may not be enough to topple the country’s entrenched clerical and military leadership. Lebanon’s president makes a surprising diplomatic move, calling for direct negotiations with Israel while openly blaming Hezbollah for dragging the country into a war that serves Iran’s interests. The proposal is raising eyebrows in Washington and Jerusalem, where officials question whether Beirut can actually disarm the Iran-backed group. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief ZBiotics: Visit https://zbiotics.com/PDB for 15% off BRUNT Workwear: Get $10 Off at BRUNT with code PDB at https://www.bruntworkwear.com/PDB#Bruntpod Stash Financial: Don't Let your money sit around. Go to https://get.stash.com/PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase and to view important disclosures. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's Tuesday, the 10th of March. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a classified U.S. intelligence assessment casts a doubt on one of the biggest questions surrounding the Iran war. Could military force actually topple the regime in Tehran? I'll bring you the details. Later in the show, a surprising move from Lebanon's president, who's now pushing for direct negotiations with Israel, while blaming Hark. Hezbollah for dragging the country into war. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We're starting things off with some new reporting that suggests that even before the first bombs fell on Iran, U.S. intelligence analysts were warning that military action alone was unlikely to produce the outcome that many in Washington have openly discussed, and that, of course, would be the collapse of the Iranian regime. According to a classified assessment produced by the National Intelligence Council, the NIC, even a large-scale military campaign against Iran would probably fail to remove the country's entrenched clerical and military leadership. That report reflects the combined analysis

of the United States' 18 intelligence agencies and was completed roughly one week before the U.S. and Israel launched their current war against Iran on the 28th of February. The findings paint a sobering picture of how resilient Iran's political system may be, even under extreme military pressure. According to officials familiar with the report, analysts examined multiple possible scenarios, including a narrow campaign focused on eliminating key regime leaders, as well as a broader assault targeting Iran's leadership and governing institutions. In both cases, the intelligence community concluded that the Islamic Republic's leadership structure is designed to survive exactly that kind of shock. It even predicted that the death of the country's supreme leader, a scenario we've

already seen play out, would not necessarily lead to regime collapse. Instead, analysts say the Iranian system includes well-established mechanisms intended to preserve continuity of power. As we've already seen, the powerful clerical body known as the Assembly of Experts, that's quite the title, has been responsible for selecting a new supreme leader. At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, the regime's powerful military and political force would almost certainly play a decisive role in ensuring the system remains intact during any transition. In other words, the report suggests that the Iranian regime is structured to absorb the loss of even its most senior leadership and to continue

functioning. Just as important, the intelligence community expressed deep skepticism that Iran's fractured opposition could quickly fill any power vacuum. According to those familiar with the report, analysts judged it unlikely that opposition groups, many of which are divided along ideological or ethnic and political lines, could organize quickly enough to take control of the country, even in the aftermath of a significant military campaign. That conclusion reflects long-standing assessments of the Iranian state. Despite widespread public frustration over the country's struggling economy and periodic protests against the regime, Iran's security apparatus has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to suppress, oftentimes violently, large-scale unrest. As we know, during protests

earlier this year, Iranian security forces reportedly killed thousands of demonstrators. Some reports say tens of thousands, and detained tens of thousands more, reinforcing the regime's willingness to use overwhelming force to maintain control. And so far, there are also few signs that the ongoing U.S. and Israeli air campaign has triggered a mass uprising inside the country. Current and former U.S. officials say there's little evidence that major factions within Iran's government or security services are preparing to break away from the regime. And without those kinds of internal fractures, analysts believe the system is likely to hold together, even under sustained military pressure. At the same time, the question of Iran's leadership succession has already

moved from speculation to reality following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. Iran's assembly of experts has now selected his son, of course, Moshaba Khamani, as the country's new supreme leader. That's a decision that effectively preserves the continuity of the regime's ruling structure. While Mostabah Khomeini's appointment is expected to consolidate the regime's core power centers, particularly the IRGC, it doesn't necessarily mean Iran's internal politics will be free of friction. Figures like Ali Larjani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and a long-time political heavyweight inside the regime are still seen as influential players

within the country's power structure. But according to the intelligence community's assessment, those internal rivalries are unlikely to produce the kind of rapid regime collapse that some observers in Washington may want. In short, the report underscores a key reality about the war now underway. Military operations can destroy infrastructure, weaken capabilities, and put enormous pressure on a government. But forcing regime changed inside a deeply entrenched system, well, that's an entirely different challenge. All right, coming up next, Lebanon's president calls for direct negotiations with Israel and claims that Chasbalah should be disarmed, but neither Washington nor Jerusalem appear convinced. I'll be right back.

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Beirut. Lebanon's president is calling for direct negotiations with Israel to establish permanent security arrangements along their shared border, while accusing Hezbollah of dragging his country into a war that serves Iran's interests. To understand what Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, is actually proposing, you have to look at the framework he laid out during a virtual meeting with European Union officials. Ione said Lebanon wants what he called a, quote, complete truce with Israel, while the two countries begin direct negotiations on long-term security arrangements along the border. Under that proposal, Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from positions they've taken in southern Lebanon in recent days. Those areas would then be handed over to the Lebanese armed forces, which Aoun says would assume

responsibility for security along the frontier. This all sounds very familiar. At the same time, Aoun says Hezbollah would be disarmed in the process, while the Lebanese military would confiscate the Iran-backed group's weapons as part of what he describes as a broader stabilization effort. Now, on paper, that might sound like a pathway toward de-escalation. It might also sound like deja vu. Here's where the skepticism from Washington and Jerusalem comes into focus. The central assumption behind Aoun's proposal is that the Lebanese state can actually disarm Chesbola, and that's something the U.S. and Israel simply don't believe Lebanon is capable of doing. Lebanon made a similar commitment as part of the 2024 ceasefire agreement,

which was supposed to push Hezbollah fighters and weapons away from the Israeli border. Israeli officials say those commitments never fully materialized, with the terror group continuing to operate and, as we know, rebuild its capabilities in Lebanon South. So it's no surprise that when Beirut promises that the Lebanese army will confiscate Hezbollah's weapons, Officials in Washington and Jerusalem are asking a relatively simple question, why should they believe this time will be any different? Aoun tried to address that issue during his remarks to EU officials. In unusually blunt language, the Lebanese president openly blamed Hezbollah

for dragging the country into the broader regional conflict. He described the terror group as, quote, an armed faction that does not value Lebanon's interests or the lives of its citizens, accusing it of acting on behalf of the Iranian regime rather than the Lebanese state. But even as Aoun called for direct negotiations with Jerusalem, at the same time, he criticized Israel's military campaign in his country, accusing the IDF of showing, quote, no respect for the laws of war, while carrying out strikes that he said displaced hundreds of thousands. When paired with that statement, the military situation on the ground helps explain why Israel appears unwilling to entertain

negotiations at the current time. Despite that 2024 ceasefire, Israeli forces have continued striking inside Lebanon, accusing Hezbollah of trying to rebuild its military capabilities, as Beirut's army is unable to dismantle the terror group's strongholds. The situation on the ground escalated even further after Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel on the second day of the joint U.S. Israeli strikes on Iran. From Israel's perspective, that attack confirmed that Hezbollah was prepared to enter any conflict alongside its Iranian handlers. As we've been tracking here on the PDB, What followed was a major expansion of Israel's military campaign. Israeli defense minister Israel Katz said the Jewish state

seized the current moment as an opportunity to weaken Hezbollah rather than to pull back. Katz said, quote, from this point on, we must not only avoid retreating, but seize the opportunity to strike Hezbollah, end quote. At the same time, Lebanese officials have also been trying to open diplomatic channels through the Trump administration. According to officials familiar with the discussions who spoke to Axios, Lebanese representatives approached the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, about the possibility of mediating talks with Israel. But the U.S. official made clear he's not

interested in mediation. Barak reportedly told Lebanese officials to quote, kids put your earmuffs on, to quote, stop with the bullshit about disarming Hezbollah, warning that unless Lebanon takes real action to eliminate the terror group's weapons, there's little point in discussing negotiations. In other words, from Washington's perspective, promises alone are not enough. If Beirot wants diplomacy, it must first prove it can actually dismantle Hezbollah's military wing. So for now, Israel's priority remains the destruction of Hezbollah's military capabilities, not to retreat from southern Lebanon or return to negotiations. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday, the 10th of March. Now, if you have

any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show, ad-free, well, that can be done, you know, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here.

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