The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | May 13th, 2024: Biden Barters With Israel & Putin's Leadership Shakeup

Episode Date: May 13, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin:    The Biden administration is offering Israel sensitive intelligence regarding the location of Hamas targets in Gaza in an attempt to prevent them from launching a full-scale ground invasion of Rafah. Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaging in a major shakeup of Moscow’s leadership as he embarks on his fifth term as president, announcing Sunday he would be replacing his close ally and long-serving defense minister. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin.  Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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You fall asleep faster, you're going to stay asleep longer, and when you wake up, will you wake up refreshed? Get up to 40% off at shopbeam.com slash PDB, and use the code PDB. It's Monday, 13 May. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First, the Biden administration is getting increasingly desperate in their attempts to prevent an Israeli invasion of Rafa,

as tension between the White House and Jerusalem continues to build. Also, Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaging in a major shake-up of Moscow's leadership as he embarks on his fifth term as president, but who's counting? announcing Sunday he would be replacing his close ally and long-serving defense minister. But first, our afternoon spotlight, as Israel continues limited operations in parts of the city of Rafa, the Biden administration is desperately trying to convince leaders in Jerusalem to not engage in a full-scale ground invasion. We've seen the White House do everything from mobilizing an international pressure campaign on Israel to withholding weapons shipments in their bid to prevent

an assault on the enclave. Now the Biden administration is offering Israel sensitive intelligence regarding the location of Hamas targets in Gaza, along with humanitarian resources and thousands of shelters that could be used to build tent cities for evacuated Palestinians, according to a Fox News report. Now, the intelligence reportedly being offered would help Israel better pinpoint the location of Hamas leaders hidden in tunnel networks throughout Gaza, the hope. The hope, is that this information would allow the IDF to wage a more targeted campaign against the remaining Hamas battalions, avoiding the widespread devastation that could come with a ground assault in Rafah. Now, it is worth asking, in case you haven't already asked yourself this,

if the U.S. is offering to trade intelligence on Hamas, if Jerusalem shifts strategies, well, what information exactly is the White House currently withholding from America's number one ally in the Middle East. Now, a U.S. official, speaking to Fox News, claimed that the administration is not withholding any intelligence from Israel, but did not offer greater clarity on the current offer from the White House. As discussed on this morning's PDB, the Biden administration continues to publicly pressure Israel against a Rafa incursion, fearing it will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe for more than one million Palestinians currently sheltering in the enclave. On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken chided Israel's ongoing operations,

claiming they don't have a credible plan to protect civilians. He added that a full-scale invasion likely wouldn't even achieve the stated objective of eliminating the remaining Hamas battalions, pointing to their resurgence in areas of northern Gaza and intelligence, indicating that the leader of Hamas' ground forces is still hiding in tunnel networks outside of Rafah. Blinken said, quote, Israel is on the trajectory, potentially, to inherit an insurgency with many armed Hamas left, or if it leaves a vacuum filled by chaos, filled by anarchy, and probably refilled by Hamas. Even if it goes in and takes heavy action at Rafah, there will still be thousands of armed

Hamas left. We've seen in areas that Israel has cleared in the north, even in Kan Unis, Hamas coming back, end quote. Well, to be fair, Blankin is speaking from experience. I'm referring, of course, to Afghanistan and the resurgence of ISIS. Since the weekend, Israel has been engaged in intense fighting in northern Gaza, battling regrouped Hamas battalions in that area. It has renewed questions regarding the long-term viability of Israel's wartime strategy. Now, the reality is, when the Israeli War Cabinet talks about destroying Hamas, look, they know they can't eliminate every Hamas fighter.

That's not what they mean. They're talking about destroying Hamas' ability to control and govern Gaza in the future, to destroy their leadership, their command and control and resources sufficiently to ensure that Hamas can't plot, plan, train for, and carry out future significant attacks on Israel. Now, if what the U.S. administration is offering is to better assist with the targeting of key Hamas personnel currently in Gaza in exchange for Israel foregoing a full-scale ground invasion, then that is an offer that the War Cabinet should contemplate. The IDF can't realistically remove all Hamas fighters,

but taking out the leadership and the management structure, well, that's possible through very targeted and timely intelligence support, and those personnel are much more difficult to replace. Now, when it comes to Rafa, Israel has issued multiple evacuation orders to Palestinians in Rafa since, well, since last Monday, and so far, some 360,000 people are estimated to have fled the city. Israel has told the refugees to head to a humanitarian area

sent up along the southern coast of the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to vow to invade Rafa with extreme force, arguing that Israel cannot take the chance of allowing Hamas to reconstitute and threaten them in the future. Netanyahu has brushed off past threats from the Biden administration, including the halting of weapons transfers last week, saying Israel, will move forward alone if they have to. Coming up after the break, Russian President Vladimir Putin is making some major changes to his administration, announcing Sunday that his Minister of Defense, a close ally, would be stepping down from that post. I'll be right back. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. As Vladimir Putin embarks on his, what is it, his fifth term as president of

Russia, he's implementing significant changes in his cabinet. On Sunday, the Kremlin announced that Putin will replace his close ally and long-serving defense minister, Sergei Shou, who's played a major role in the Ukraine conflict. The announcement comes amidst a lot of speculation about Shogu's future. As we've been reporting here on the PDB, one of Shogu's longtime prodigies at the defense ministry has been arrested and charged with corruption just this past month, leading many to believe that Shogu himself might be on the chopping block. Now, the former defense minister isn't going anywhere and will remain, reportedly, in Putin's administration as Secretary of Russia's Security Council. That's roughly analogous to the U.S. National Security Council, which advises the

President on national security and foreign policy issues. Nevertheless, many view the new position as a demotion, indicating that Shogu may have lost Putin's confidence over the course of the war, which, of course, is now in its third year. Now, the man tapped to replace Shougu as defense minister, is a civilian economist named Andrei Belusov. Before being chosen for his new role, he served as Russia's first deputy prime minister. And just like Shogu, Belosov has no prior military experience. Okay, you might be wondering why Russia would appoint an economist as defense minister. At first glance, it seems like, well, an unconventional choice.

But now considering the current state of Russia, it could make a lot of sense. Russia's economy is currently geared almost entirely towards sustaining its war in Ukraine, and as such, its defense budget is a massive part of its national budget. An economist brings expertise, of course, in managing large budgets, ensuring efficiency and effectiveness in allocation and spending. Economists are also, well, typically skilled in reforming large organizations for better efficiency. For a defense ministry, like the one in Russia, which often involves complex logistics and bureaucracy, not to mention corruption, an economist could help streamline operations. Speaking on the cabinet shuffle, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told the press,

quote, today the winner on the battlefield is the one who is more open to innovation, more open to implementation as quickly as possible. It's natural that at the current stage the president decided that the Ministry of Defense should be headed by a civilian, end quote. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin from Monday, 13. May. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And as you know, word on the street is that if you want to listen to the show ad-free, you should check out our premium membership at PDB Premium.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.