The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | May 6th, 2024: Putin Orders Tactical Nuclear Drills & Israel Sets Sights On Rafah

Episode Date: May 6, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin:    The risk of nuclear escalation is intensifying, as Putin orders tactical nuclear weapon drills in response to what Moscow called threats from the U.S., France, and Britain. It appears the Israeli military is preparing to root Hamas out of their last stronghold in the city of Rafah, as they began ordering Palestinians sheltering in the city to start evacuations. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin.  Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First, the risk of nuclear escalation is intensifying, as Russian President Putin orders tactical nuclear weapon drills in response to what Moscow called threats from the U.S., France, and Britain. Well, that's a cheery way to start off our afternoon.

Also, it appears the Israeli military is preparing to root Hamas out of their last stronghold in the city of Rafa as they begin advising Palestinians sheltering in the city to start evacuations. But first, our afternoon spotlight. The threat of nuclear conflict in Europe is intensifying as Russian President Putin orders the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as part of a large-scale military exercise. Now, the drills, which were announced Monday, will reportedly involve the preparation and deployment for use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, that is, smaller warheads that are designed for battlefield use. Russia's missile. Russia's missile, aviation and naval personnel, will participate in the exercises, which are purportedly designed to,

quote, increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat missions, and quote, and that's according to a New York Times report. While Russia has engaged in nuclear saber-rattling since invading Ukraine over two years ago, the prospect of using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield marks the most explicit nuclear threat from Russia since the war began in February of 2022. Adding to the concern of escalation, the drills will take place in Russia's Southern military district, which includes part of Russia's border region with Ukraine, as well as Russian-occupied parts of the country. It's unclear when exactly the drills will take place, but officials in Russia said they would begin in the, quote, near future. Western leaders

have feared that Putin could pivot to using tactical nuclear weapons if Russia suffers, setbacks in the war. But Putin has repeatedly denied that he's ever considered using such weapons in Ukraine. So, you ask yourself, why the sudden change in posture from Moscow? Well, leaders within the Kremlin say that threats from Western leaders about expanding their role in the conflict, including NATO's role, are changing their nuclear calculus. A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said Monday that the drills were in direct response to, quote, provocative statement, and threats of individual Western officials against the Russian Federation, end quote. Now, that included an interview French President Emmanuel Macron gave to the economist last Thursday,

in which he said he would consider sending French troops to the front lines of Ukraine, and he said further that NATO leaders should seriously reconsider their role in the war if Russian forces were to break through Ukraine's frontline defenses. The remarks came less than a week after Macron said he is open to using France's France's nuclear warheads as part of a unified European nuclear deterrent against Russia. Back in March, Macron even went so far as to say that NATO should not rule out deploying troops to fight on the ground in Ukraine, and that, of course, alarmed fellow members of the alliance who spent some time walking those comments back.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron also jumped into the mix last week when he said that Ukraine has every right to strike targets inside Russia using British supplied weapons. The remarks broke with the rhetoric of the U.S. and other Western powers who have been discouraging Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, fearing that they could trigger a wider escalation. Western officials, meanwhile, condemned Russia's move as a belligerent escalation meant to intimidate NATO as they continue to support leaders in Kiev. A NATO spokeswoman told the New York Times, quote,

Russia's nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible. NATO remains vigilant. Russia started this illegal war. and must end it." Coming up after the break, in a signal that a ground invasion could be imminent, the Israeli military is beginning to instruct Palestinians sheltering in Rafa to evacuate. I'll be right back. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin.

Turning now to Gaza, where an evacuation of the city of Rafa has begun. Today, the Israeli army ordered tens of thousands of Palestinians to begin evacuating Eastern Rafa, signaling that the IDF may be brought. preparing to launch its long-promised ground invasion there. An IDF spokesman said the evacuees were being ordered to move to a nearby Israel-declared humanitarian zone called Muasi, a makeshift tent city along the Gaza coast, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have sought safety. Now, the UN agency serving Palestinian refugees said it would not comply with the evacuation order. Last week, it was reported that the Rafa operation would begin with a multi-week mass evacuation of over 1 million Palestinians from the city.

Those civilians will be moved to tent complexes that have been set up by international aid organizations. Now, reportedly, the military operation itself will move forward in stages, targeting specific areas of the city. At each stage, the IDF will inform the local population before advancing into the area. allowing time for evacuation before moving forward. However, the IDF is saying that the current evacuation is part of preparations for a, quote, limited scope operation rather than the beginning of a larger offensive inside the city. This move is clearly going to complicate the ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, and for that statement, I award myself the PDB statement of the obvious award.

not to mention that the potential ceasefire talks were already complicated by a Hamas rocket attack that killed three Israeli soldiers over the weekend. A spokesman for the terror group told Reuters that the IDF's evacuation of civilians from Rafa was a, quote, dangerous escalation that could derail the hostage negotiations. Huh, you know what else was a dangerous escalation? Yeah, the brutal, unprovoked seven-October Hamas attacks into southern Israel that kicked off this current conflict. Speaking of the negotiations, which are currently going on in Cairo, Egypt, there's some good news and some bad news to report on that front. Let's start with the good news. Early this morning, it was reported that Hamas has now softened its position on one of its key demands.

Israel will only need to commit to a total ceasefire in the second stage of the ceasefire. Now, the bad news, it appears that Hamas has decided to walk away from the negotiations, at least for now. So perhaps, I don't know, disregard the good news portion. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday, 6 May. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And lest we forget, if you want to listen to the show ad-free, be sure to check out our premium membership at pdb premium.com.

Same great taste, zero ad calories. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.