The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 18th, 2025: Russian Oil Sector Continues To Collapse & Berlin Reopens Arms Flow To Israel

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin: Russia’s oil sector is taking heavy hits on two fronts. Ukrainian drones are striking deep inside the country, while new U.S. sanctions are cutting off key buyers in India and China. We’ll explain why this dual pressure is becoming a serious problem for Moscow’s war economy. Germany is preparing to lift its freeze on arms exports to Israel, saying the Gaza ceasefire has stabilized enough to reverse restrictions imposed during the height of the conflict. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Rugiet: Ready to give Rugiet a try? Get 15% off your first order by going to http://rugiet.com/PDB and using code PDB. Rugiet prescriptions are compounded medications, available only if prescribed following an online consultation with a licensed clinician. Compounded drugs can be prescribed by federal law, but are not FDA-approved and have not been reviewed by the FDA for safety, effectiveness, or manufacturing. Individual results may vary. Full safety information available at https://Rugiet.com  Lean: Visit https://BrickhouseSale.comfor 30% off StopBox: Not only do you get 10% Off your entire order when you use code PDB10 at https://stopboxusa.com/PDB10, but they are also giving you Buy One Get One Free for their StopBox Pro. #stopboxpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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while new U.S. sanctions are choking off the Kremlin's biggest customers. This combination is turning into a serious problem for Moscow, and we'll have the details. Later in the show, Germany is set to lift its arms export freeze on Israel, saying the Gaza ceasefire has stabilized enough to roll back restrictions imposed during the height of the conflict. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We're starting off with an issue we followed closely on the PDB, and the latest developments point to mounting trouble for the Kremlin. Moscow's energy sector, the financial backbone of its war effort, continues to get battered on two fronts. It's being pummeled both by Ukrainian drones and missiles and by the new round of U.S.

sanctions. Let's start with the battlefield. In a nighttime attack, Ukraine struck one of Moscow's most important oil refineries located in the Samara region. It's one of the 10 largest refineries in Russia and produces an estimated 8.8 million metric tons of oil every year. That includes gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The strike was carried out with Ukraine's new jet-propelled bars drones, which have the range to reach nearly 900 miles inside Russian territory. The Ukrainian general staff released video showing the attack's aftermath, marking the sixth time that this refinery has been struck since the war began. The previous attack last month reportedly forced a temporary shutdown.

And the refinery wasn't the only target. Ukraine also hit a storage site used by Russia's elite Rubicon drone unit, the force that's been conducting long-range strikes on Ukrainian's 6. cities and helping Russia retake territory earlier this year. Moscow claims that it did intercept 23 drones, but the video released by Ukraine tells a different story. Either way, it's another reminder that Ukraine continues to reach deep into Russia to hit assets that directly support the war. So that's the first front, the physical damage. But the second front is ultimately just as painful for the Kremlin. That's the new U.S. sanctions, and the impact is growing. The

sanctions are set to take effect on Friday, at which point all transactions involving Russia's two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Luke Oil, must be wound down. India and China, the two biggest customers keeping Moscow's oil exports alive while they've taken notice, and it appears that they're already reducing their purchases. According to new reporting from Bloomberg, major Indian refiners like Reliance Industries, Barat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum, have halted direct purchases from Rossneft and Luke Oil. Chinese providers, including Sinopec and PetroChina, have done the same. That buyer strike, as analysts are calling it, has disrupted nearly half of Russia's oil exports to China. The result has been devastating for Russia, a collapse in the price of Russia's flagship Ural's crude. At the end of last week, it fell to just over $36 a barrel. That's one of the steepest discounts in more than a year. In normal times, it trades at a $12 discount to Brent, but that gap has now nearly doubled, and is approaching the record lows that were seen in early 2023.

And with fewer buyers, Russia is running out of places to put the oil. As we've reported, J.P. Morgan estimates that roughly one-third of Russia's seaborne exports, about 1.4 million barrels a day are now sitting on tankers being used as floating storage, while sellers hunt for customers willing to take the risk. Meanwhile, revenues have slipped to around $1.2 billion a week, and that's a two-and-a-half-year low. Adding to the pressure, satellite trackers have noticed more Russian tankers switching off their transponders near known clandestine transfer zones. That suggests that Moscow is being pushed deeper into the shadows in an effort to keep its oil moving.

So, you ask, what does all this mean? Well, I'm glad you asked. Primarily two things. First, Russia's war machine is under real financial strain. Hydrocarbons aren't just one part of the Russian economy. They're basically the whole thing. and when India and China step back, even temporarily, the Kremlin feels it immediately. Lower prices mean lower revenues, and lower revenues mean fewer resources to sustain Putin's war. Second, Ukraine's long-range strikes are taking a major toll. They're chipping away at Russia's refining capacity and forcing Moscow to divert air defenses to protect facilities that they never expected to be in the line of fire. All right. Coming up next, Germany plans to restore

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when it comes to Israel's defense needs, supplying some 30% of its major arms imports from 2019 to 2023. Now, you may remember back in August when Germany ordered a halt on sending arms to the Jewish state when Chancellor Friedrich Mertz bowed to domestic pressure and paused exports amid accusations that Israel's ground offensive in Gaza

essentially amounted to war crimes. What started as a defined stop on equipment that, quote, clearly was usable in Gaza, while that quickly took on a life of its own. Approvals dried up, licenses stalled, and for more than a month, Berlin didn't greenlight a single export. And even after that freeze quietly loosened, the broader pause remained in place for months. To officials in Berlin, it was a necessary cooling-off period at the height of the war. But inside Germany's political establishment, it was also a move that strained long-standing commitments and opened a debate over how far the government could go

in distancing itself from Israel. Government spokesman Stefan Cornelius said yesterday that those limits will no longer apply, pointing to the Trump administration's 20-point peace plan, which he said is, quote, stabilized in recent weeks. Berlin argues the conditions that triggered the pause have meaningfully shifted, and that renewed cooperation fits its strategic obligations. The pause has been presented as a tightly scoped measure, but German officials now acknowledge it functioned far more broadly, effectively stopping every export request cold, far beyond what Berlin originally had signaled. Now with the freeze soon lifting on the 24th of November, Berlin will return to case-by-case reviews, a shift that Cornelius said reflects peaceful progress in the Strip and Germany's continued diplomatic engagement.

For Berlin, the decision also marks the return to a principle that has guided its foreign policy for decades. Support for Israel has long been anchored in the country's commitment to Israel, shaped by the legacy, of course, of World War II and the Holocaust. As a result of the pause, Mertz faced heavy criticism from within his own conservative block for the August suspension. That was a step, he said, was tied to Jerusalem's planned expansion of operations in Gaza at the time. Israeli foreign minister Gideon Tsar welcomed Berlin's reversal, posting on X-quote,

I call on other governments to adopt similar decisions following Germany. Berlin's foreign minister, whose ministry helps show. shape this shift, call the move, quote, responsible, and correct. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday, the 18th of November. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, you can do that, and you can do that very simply, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdb premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow.

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