The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 21st, 2025: Secret US Wargame Models Maduro’s Collapse & Trump Threatens Ukraine With Thanksgiving Peace Deadline

Episode Date: November 21, 2025

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin:  First—Washington’s pressure campaign on Venezuela comes with a warning label. A newly resurfaced detail from a New York Times report reveals that U.S. officials once ran a secret war-game on what would happen if Nicolás Maduro fell—and the outcome wasn’t pretty. Later in the show—President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on Ukraine to accept his new 28-point peace plan for ending the war, giving Kyiv until Thanksgiving to agree. We’ll break down the framework, Europe’s reaction, and the impossible decision Volodymyr Zelensky now faces. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on gold Ridge Wallet: Upgrade your wallet today! Get 47% Off @Ridge with code PDB at https://www.Ridge.com/PDB #Ridgepod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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And the outcome wasn't pretty. To be fair, regime change is almost never pretty. Let's see, there's Libya, Iraq, Chile. Nicaragua? South Vietnam? Yeah, definitely South Vietnam. Iran? Guatemala. Yeah, we've got some practical case studies that we could learn from. Now, it's not always apples to apples, to be fair, but, well, there are lessons to be had. Later in the show, President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on Ukraine to accept his new 28-point peace plan for ending the war, giving Kiev until Thanksgiving to agree. We'll break down the framework, Europe's reaction,

and the impossible decision that Zelensky now faces. The White House is, to put it simply, suggesting that Ukraine make all the concessions and essentially capitulate to Putin, just so we can say we've got a peace deal? Hmm. Everybody. Well, except for Putin. Everybody wants peace and stability, of course. But that doesn't mean that you have to give in to Putin's demands, which haven't changed

since he started this invasion. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We've been watching the rising tensions, of course. between Washington and Caracas and the steady U.S. military buildup in the region. But it all raises a basic question, of course, what would actually happen if the U.S. toppled Nicholas Maduro? Well, there's a detail tucked into a recent New York Times piece that deserves a lot more attention than it's getting, because it actually seems to answer that question. During President Trump's first term, U.S. officials quietly ran a war game exploring what might happen if Maduro were pushed

out of power in Venezuela. And the result wasn't some triumphant march toward democracy. It was chaos, prolonged, grinding, unpredictable chaos. According to people familiar with the exercise, analysts walked through different scenarios, a military coup, a popular uprising, a negotiated exit, and every path appeared to lead to the same messy destination. The collapse of the Maduro regime didn't produce a clean handoff to opposition leaders or technocrats waiting in the wings. Instead, the country splintered. Cartels rushed to carve out territory. Columbia and guerrilla groups moved in. Parts of the Venezuelan military broke off and started answering to whatever local boss could pay them. The oil fields, the heart of Venezuela's economy, became contested ground, and the central government,

such as it was in this war game, couldn't stitch anything back together. It's worth pausing there, because that's not the picture that U.S. politicians usually paint when they talk about Venezuela. The public script so far focuses on restoring democracy, helping the Venezuelan people, or ending narco-terrorism. But this particular war game tells us something else. Even if Maduro falls, the U.S. may not like what comes next. This is where the present moment becomes even more interesting. The U.S. is applying the most aggressive pressure on Venezuela in years.

Military deployments in the Caribbean, talk of designating Maduro's circle as a terrorist organization, new intelligence leaks about cartel ties and diplomatic messages that sound a lot like ultimatums. Meanwhile, Maduro's government is warning that he'll employ is malicious, what they're calling people's armies, asymmetric warfare, the language of a regime that is preparing for a siege. And in the middle of all that, well, the Times reminds us we've already gamed out what happens if the whole thing collapses. What the war game suggests is that Washington shouldn't assume a post-Moduro Venezuela,

looks anything like a stable state. It may look more like a vacuum, one that criminal groups and foreign actors and local warlords would be rushing to fill. That's another point that the Times hints at. The war game wasn't just about internal Venezuelan dynamics. It included Russia, China, Iran, players with interests in Caracas who wouldn't sit quietly by if the U.S. reshaped the map. Moscow has, of course, sold weapons to the regime and values the relationship with a country in America's backyard. Tehran has backed Maduro's intelligence services, and Beijing, well, they've got billions tied up in loans and infrastructure. The message from the old war game was simple. If Venezuela collapses, you don't just get Venezuela. You get a host of other interested players. All of this

lands at a moment when the Trump administration is weighing options that could push the crisis toward a breaking point, and it raises a pretty important question. Is the U.S. actually prepared for the fallout that it's already predicted. So when you hear big statements about tough action or promises that a new government in Caracas would immediately stabilize, keep that war game in the back of your mind. The people who ran it weren't guessing.

They were using the best intelligence available at the time, and this was President Trump's first term, and what they saw wasn't a victory parade. All right, coming up next, and we'll take you inside President Trump's 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, and the White House's aggressive diplomatic push to get Keeve on board by Thanksgiving. Oh, look, Turkey's done.

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These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. I want to provide an update on the highly controversial U.S. peace plan being promoted by the White House to end the war in Ukraine as pressure mounts on Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept the Trump administration's tentative framework, despite the protests of European allies and the deep skepticism of Kiev. On Thursday, President Trump privately urged Ukraine to accept the outline of a new 28-point peace framework by Thanksgiving, according to U.S. officials who

spoke with multiple outlets. The president publicly reinforced that timeline on Friday, calling it, quote, appropriate, and warning that Ukraine could, quote, lose in a short period of time if talks stall. If this sounds like a reversal from the very recent tough talk coming out of the White House regarding the new sanctions on Russian oil giants, Rosneft, and Luke oil, well, that's because it is. The diplomatic clock is now ticking for Kiev, and the stakes, frankly, couldn't be higher.

As we discussed on yesterday's BDB, the U.S. drafted plan would require Ukraine to make sweeping concessions, concessions that track closely with the Kremlin's longstanding demands. Now, I want to stress that behind the scenes, U.S. officials confirmed to NBC News that the Thanksgiving target is more of a goal than an ultimatum, but the message was unmistakable. The Trump administration wants Keev to sign off on the framework quickly before winter sets in on the battlefields. And the consequences for pushing back could be crippling for Ukraine. Multiple anonymous sources told Reuters Friday that the Trump administration is threatening

to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine if, leaders in Kiev don't get on board. Trump's message landed just hours after Zelensky delivered one of his starkest addresses of the war, telling Ukrainians they were facing a choice between their, quote, dignity and the risk of losing a key partner. Zolensky said, quote, this is one of the most difficult moments in our history. The pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest. He urged Ukrainians to stay united ahead of what he said will be, quote, a very difficult eventful week. publicly Zelensky is attempting to walk a very fine diplomatic line, likely in an attempt to avoid offending President Trump. After receiving a draft of the proposal on Thursday and meeting

with U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kiev, Zelenskyy said, quote, we are ready for constructive, honest, and prompt work. On Friday, he added in a post on X that he had spoken for nearly an hour with Vice President J.D. Vance and Driscoll about the framework, saying Ukraine has always respected Trump's desire to put an end to the bloodshed. It was a delicate message that signaled Keeb is not rejecting the U.S. plan outright, but is not on board with key aspects of the proposal. As the news broke, Zelensky also held an emergency call with the leaders of Germany and Britain and France. As we discussed yesterday, European allies were not consulted on the proposal and have not been shy about voicing their grave concerns, fearing President Trump is playing directly

into the Kremlin's hands. EU foreign policy chief, Guyacalus, warned Friday that, quote, this is a very dangerous moment for all. During the call, Zelensky reportedly assured his European allies that while he valued Trump's efforts, he would work to ensure a, quote, dignified peace that takes into account Keeves' principled stances.

The flurry of remarks on Friday come as the finer details of the plan began leaking to the press. Under the 28-point plan, Keeve would be required to give up the end entire Donbass region, including areas still under Ukrainian control. They would also need to cede Crimea to Russia, and meanwhile, the framework would freeze the front line in the southeastern Kerasan and Zaporizia regions and create a demilitarized zone between the current front line

and the border of Dhenzsk. Furthermore, Ukraine would be barred from ever joining the NATO alliance and would be required to cap their army size at 600,000 troops. The U.S. supposedly would provide security guarantees to Ukraine, though details remain very vague or undefined, and Ukraine, Europe, and Russia would then enter into a, quote, non-aggression agreement. As part of this proposal, Trump also wants NATO to agree to not expand their boundaries any further or station troops in Ukraine. Finally, Reuters reports that sanctions would be slowly lifted off of Russia in a phased approach, and Russia would be invited to rejoin the G8 and be reintegrated into the global economy, and the U.S. would then enter into a sweeping economic agreement with Moscow and Putin

would get a pony. Hmm. Now, you'd think Moscow would be fawning over the agreement, and they probably are privately, but so far publicly, the Kremlin is taking a cautious approach. A Kremlin's spokesman said they have not received any framework, and no substantive discussions have been had, despite reports that Russian envoy Kareel Dmitriev played a role in crafting the plan, or I bet he did, with U.S. Special Envoy, Steve Whitkoff. Still, the Kremlin taunted Keev, encouraging Zelenskyy to negotiate before it's too late, and Putin later suggested that he favors the framework. Of course he does. It basically matches his longstanding demands. To state the obvious, Europe is in a state of alarm over the proposal and the speed at which the White House is pushing it. They fear the concessions

will embolden Russia, fracture the Ukrainian government, and leave them holding the security burden for a weakened Ukraine, all while Putin gets to claim victory, because, well, yeah, it would be a victory. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Friday the 21st of November. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at BDB at thefirsttv.com. And, of course, to listen to the show ad-free, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdb premium.com. And don't forget, it's Friday. Of course you knew that, which another episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report, hits the airwaves this evening at 10 p.m. on the first TV. Excellent guests, insightful conversations, really the only thing

missing would be a house band and I suppose a jolly sidekick announcer. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel. That's at President's Daily Brief, and wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDB Situation Report. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. All. Pay off your home. Travel for life. Drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot machine by Aristocrat Gaming,

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