The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 31st, 2024: Ceasefire in Lebanon? & A U.S. Marine’s Death in Mexico

Episode Date: October 31, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Israel and Lebanon may be nearing a ceasefire, with signs of optimism from both sides. We discuss the potential breakthrough and what it could mean for the region. The tragic murder of a U.S. Marine veteran in Mexico highlights the growing power of drug cartels and the dangers they pose to American travelers. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail]. Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Oh, would you look at that? It's the end of another month. And happy Halloween to all you trick-or-treaters. Welcome to the BDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up, we'll start off with some good news or potentially good news or possibly potentially some good news. Israel and Lebanon are reportedly closing in on a ceasefire. All sides are showing something resembling optimism that a deal could be struck in the coming days. Later in the show, the tragic murder of a U.S. Marine veteran in Mexico exposes the growing reach of drug cartels and the dangers for American travelers. But first, our afternoon spotlight. A potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon could be finalized within days.

That's according to acting Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikadi, after a leaked U.S.-backed draft outlined a 60-day truce in Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. Negotiations between Israel and Chazbalah advanced significantly in the past day, again according to the acting prime minister, inching closer to a ceasefire that would halt more than a year of escalating conflict. If enacted, this truce would mark a diplomatic success for Israel and Lebanon and the U.S., potentially stabilizing the volatile region. The ceasefire draft dated 26 October and leaked by Israeli public broadcaster Khan was reportedly authored by Washington. It proposes a 60-day truce with Israeli forces initiating their withdrawal from Lebanese territory within the first week. Now, the draft includes steps toward a permanent ceasefire by invoking United Nations Resolutions 1701 and 1559 for background. Resolution 1701 passed

after the 2006 Lebanon War mandated the demilitarization of southern Lebanon under UN Peacekeeping Superven. vision. Resolution 1559, adopted in 2004, calls for the disbanding of all militias in Lebanon, including Chesbola. Now, not to be churlish, but neither of those resolutions worked in the past. So, you know, there's that. Under the draft, Lebanon would deploy approximately 10,000 Lebanese military troops to further enforce peace in the southern region, confiscating all non-state military infrastructure. Okay, look, here I go again, Mr. Churlish. The Lebanese military has proven itself to be ineffective over the years when it comes to exerting any control over Hezbollah.

And now we're supposed to imagine that they're going to move into southern Lebanon and take Hezbollah's weapons away from them. Hmm. Okay, to sustain the ceasefire, the draft suggests a monitoring and enforcement mechanism involving Israel, Lebanon, the U.S., and allied nations. This oversight body would address violations. and facilitate intelligence sharing, with the U.S. pledging support for Israel's defensive actions if the ceasefire is breached. Additionally, the draft outlines that the U.S. would consult on any

Israeli strikes in Lebanon, emphasizing civilian protection. Makati expressed Lebanon's openness to invoking UN Resolution 1701 to establish a UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon. McCadi also emphasized Lebanon's support for efforts toward demilitarization as part of broader ceasefire agreement. The U.S. maintains cautious optimism, oh, with White House spokesman Sean Savitt stating, quote, many reports and drafts are circulating, end quote, while declining to confirm specifics of the Khan document. U.S. mediator, Amos Hochstein, alongside White House Middle East advisor Brett McGurk, traveled to Israel on Wednesday for ongoing talks. Now, before his departure, Hochstein spoke with acting Lebanese Prime Minister,

Mikkadi, who expressed cautious optimism again, stating, quote, the situation today is better than yesterday, adding, quote, we hope that within hours or in the coming days, there will be a ceasefire. McCadi previously anticipated that a deal might only be possible after the U.S. presidential election. Yet Thursday's discussion with Hawstein and the developments surrounding the leak shifted his outlook, suggesting a truce could be feasible by early November. Meanwhile, as diplomatic efforts progressed or seemingly progressed, Chasbullah's new leader, Naim Kassim, issued a stark warning to Israel. Following a drone attack by Chesbullah last week that reportedly reached Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's residence,

Qasem stated, quote, Netanyahu survived this time, but perhaps his time has not yet come. Kassim assumed leadership of Chazbullah, after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli air strike, of course, last month. Now, optimism about potential ceasefires, whether with Hezbollah or Hamas, isn't anything new from the Biden-Harris White House. Over the past year, the White House has expressed optimism a number of times over potential negotiations despite pessimistic stances from the key players, including Israel, Hamas, gutter, and Egypt.

So the cautious optimism from the White House concerning a potential Israel-Hzbollah a ceasefire should be taken with a grain of salt. Rockets are still flying, and military operations inside Lebanon are still targeting Hezbollah fighters. While the White House would dearly love a ceasefire ahead of the elections in a few days, the combatants in this conflict are unlikely to bend to the whims of U.S. domestic politics. Slapping together a ceasefire based on previously unworkable U.N. resolutions in an effort to beat the clock on the U.S. election, Well, it may kick the can down the road a bit, but it doesn't solve the problem for the long term. Coming up next, the tragic murder of a U.S. Marine veteran in Mexico raises serious concerns about cartel violence along popular travel routes.

I'll have the details after the break. Paraday presents in the Red Corner the Undisputed Undefeated Weed Wacker Guys! Champion of hurling grass and pollen everywhere. in the blue corner, the challenger, extra strength, Hatterday. Eye drops and work all day to prevent the release of histamines that cause itchy allergy eyes. And the winner, by knockout, is Hatternay. Padiddy, bring it on. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin.

I want to bring you the story of the tragic murder of 31-year-old U.S. Marine veteran Nicholas Quetz. Earlier this month, Quetz was traveling with friends on a trip to the Mexican beach resort of Puerto Penaosco, also known as Rocky Point, when he was shot and killed. The attack happened near a gas station between the towns of Altar and Caborka, roughly 30 miles south of the U.S.-Mexico border in the state of Sonora. Now Quetz and his friends were not traveling off the beaten path. They were on a well-traveled road, often used by Americans, headed to the popular beach resort. But it seems they drove through an illicit cartel-controlled checkpoint before the shooting, a reminder of how cartels are now embedded in areas frequented by tourists. This week, Mexican authorities

announced that a number of suspects in the murder have now been arrested. Mexican authorities, frankly, have a tendency to act quickly when they believe a crime could impact their tourism industry. One of the suspects reportedly had an outstanding warrant for desertion from Honduras' presidential honor guard. Now, that's an elite military force tasked with protecting the Honduran president and other high-ranking officials. Mexican cartels frequently recruit former military members from Central and South America, adding trained personnel to their ranks. That suspect and a companion were killed on Tuesday after they opened fire on Mexican security forces. Mexican prosecutors have also detained two other suspects, one allegedly tied to the Delta gang.

that's a group that operates under the Chapitos, a faction of the notorious Sinaloa cartel. Security forces found firearms, drugs, and cash at the scene of their arrest. On the U.S. side, former President Trump and Senator J.D. Vance recently met with Quetz's family to offer their condolences. According to the family, they have yet to hear from the Biden-Harris team. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday, 31 October. Now, for those of you in the U.S., if you're out trick-or-treating tonight, well, please be safe, watch out for little goblins and don't eat all the candy at once. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com.

And to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the president's daily brief simply by visiting pdb premium.com. It could not be any simpler. And, of course, don't forget. Tomorrow's Friday. I'm sure you were aware of that. But if it's Friday, that means that the PDB production team is hunkered down in our space age command center, putting together the latest episode of our critically acclaimed extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report.

New episodes drop, as the kids say, every Friday evening at 10 p.m. on the first TV. And, of course, you can also check out all things PDB on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief. And, of course, wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion

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