The President's Daily Brief - PDB Afternoon Bulletin | September 18th, 2025: Ukraine Retakes Ground As Russian Offensive Stalls & South China Sea Collision

Episode Date: September 18, 2025

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin: Russia’s much-touted offensive appears to have stalled, with reports that in some areas it’s Kyiv’s forces pushing forward and reclaiming lost ground. We’ll bring you the latest from the front. Another dangerous encounter in the South China Sea—Chinese and Philippine vessels collide near a disputed shoal, leaving injuries and sparking a heated war of words. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief American Financing: NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.327% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit http://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDB. Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on gold Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up, Russia's offensive appears to have stalled, and in some areas, it's Keeves forces pushing forward, reclaiming lost ground. We'll have the latest from the front. And later in the show, another dangerous encounter in the South China Sea. Chinese and Philippine vessels collide near a disputed shoal, with injuries reported, and both sides, of course, trading blame. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. It's been a while, since we've we've taken a look at the situation on the ground in Ukraine. And that's partly because, through the summer, the story has been a familiar one, Russia pushing forward with slow, grinding offenses,

and Ukraine struggling to hold them back. But in recent days, the story has shifted. Moscow's summer offensive appears to have wound down, and Ukraine is not only holding the line, but even gaining back some ground. Now, you wouldn't know that if you listen to the Russian leadership. At the end of August, the chief of Russia's general staff, Valerie Eurasimov, declared what he called, quote, major victories in both eastern and southern Ukraine. He claimed thousands of square kilometers of territory have been captured, along with scores of villages and towns. He even suggested his troops were on the verge of surrounding a key Ukrainian stronghold. Now, as it turns out, and I know this is hard to believe, but Valerie Eurasimov might have been a big fibber.

Independent assessments paint a very different picture. Western analysts, Ukrainian officials, and even some pro-Russian military bloggers say those claims are wildly inflated. The true gains are far smaller than the Kremlin admits, and whatever territory Russia has taken has come at an extraordinary cost in lives and equipment. One analyst compared Russia's approach to cooking the books. You set vague goals, you push the line forward just a bit, and then declare the results as proof of victory. Russia has even recycled old maps from earlier in the year to make it look like this summer's campaign, was more successful than it actually was. The reality is that Moscow didn't capture a single

major Ukrainian city this summer. The only place they could point to as a real success was Chassevier, a small town in the east. But even that victory came after months of bloody fighting that left much of the settlement in ruins. Everywhere else, there are advances either stalled out or were pushed back. In fact, Ukrainian forces recently regained several villages in the east, undoing Russian progress toward critical supply routes. And while these gains aren't huge in size, they matter because they show Ukraine can still seize the initiative, even after months of being on the defensive. The cost to Russia have been staggering.

Independent estimates say that since the war began, Moscow has lost more than 200,000 troops, and just as summer alone tens of thousands were killed or wounded in the offensive. Soldiers described being thrown into what they call, quote, meat assaults, waves of men sent forward in frontal attacks until the survivors finally take a position. Some units have reportedly lost more than 90% of their manpower before being declared combat ineffective. And it's not just manpower. Russian commanders appear to be rationing tanks and armored vehicles, holding them back to avoid rapid destruction at the front. Many troops rely on civilian vehicles bought with donations, only to see them destroyed within days. So why inflate the gains? Well,

analysts say the goal is twofold, first to project strength abroad, especially toward well, Western governments, debating continued military aid for Ukraine, and second, to reassure domestic public that's weary of war, convincing them that sacrifices are paying off. The truth on the ground may be far messier, but the official story is designed to make the war look like it's moving steadily in Russia's favor. For President Putin, this matters enormously. He continues to believe that Russia is winning, and as long as he believes that, he has little incentive to enter serious peace talks. The Kremlin's Propaganda doesn't just shape public opinion. It shapes the decisions being made at the very top. For Ukraine, the task is to hold the line, exploit openings when possible, and show the world that

Russia's war machine is not unstoppable. And for the moment, that's exactly what they're doing. The Russian offensive has sputtered. Ukrainian troops have clawed back territory in the east, and Moscow's narrative of victory looks thinner by the day. Now, the war is still brutal, of course, still costly and far from over. But the developments of the past few weeks are a reminder that the outcome is not inevitable. All right, coming up next, Chinese and Philippine ships collide near a disputed shoal, sparking a new round of diplomatic protests. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, this podcast is brought to you in part by Stash. Imagine investing without ever picking a single stock. With Stash, the experts handle the hard part for you. You see, Stash isn't just another

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another confrontation is broken out between China and the Philippines. This time the clash was near Scarborough Shoal, a disputed reef claimed by both countries. China's Coast Guard accused a Philippine ship of deliberately ramming one of its vessels, but Manila fired back with a different account, saying it was Chinese ships that pummeled their fishing vessel with water cannons for nearly half an hour, leaving it badly damaged and injuring a crew member. And it fits a familiar pattern, Beijing often accuses its rivals of the very behavior that it's engaging in. Philippine officials said two Chinese ships hit their vessel with such force that glass windows shattered, water flooded into the captain's cabin, and electrical systems short-circuited. On top of that,

the Chinese Navy warship broadcast a warning of so-called live-fire exercises, sending Filipino fishermen in the area scrambling in fear. And this isn't happening in a vacuum. Just days earlier, Beijing announced it was designating part of Scarborough Shoal as a National Nature Reserve, an environmental label that Manila dismissed as a cover for expanding Chinese control. The Philippines responded with a formal protest. This latest incident looks like Beijing enforcing that claim on the water. Scarborough Shoal has long been one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the South China Sea. It's a rich fishing ground. It sits in a vital shipping lane and it's symbolic of Beijing's sweeping claim to nearly the entire sea. The Philippines had dispatched ships to the Shoal this week to resupply its own

fishing fleet with fuel and water and ice. Instead, they ran into Chinese Coast Guard vessels blocking the way. U.S. Secretary of State Marker Rubio condemned the Chinese action as, quote, yet another coercive move meant to enforce imagined territorial claims at the expense of neighbors. The United Kingdom, Australia and Canada, voiced support for Manila as well, with Ottawa saying outright, that China was using environmental protection as a pretext for taking control of the shoal. And that's the key here. This is just the latest in a long series of standoffs between China and the Philippines, Each one has the same rhythm. Beijing takes a new step to assert control, Manila resists, and the world takes notice and does nothing. The difference this time is that a Philippine ship was left damaged and a crew member injured, making the confrontation harder to brush off as routine harassment.

The South China Sea is already one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world, a place where national pride, fishing rights, and global trade routes all collide. Each new clash adds yet another layer of risk and another chance for a miscalculation. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday, the 18th of September. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, well, you can do that, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. And if you get the chance and you're so inclined, also check out our,

YouTube channel. You can find that, oddly enough, on YouTube, at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. All. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot Machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package. The biggest prize in Yamava's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale. May 29th. Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win? Details at yamava.com must be 21-20. Please gamble responsibly. Monopoly is a

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