The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | August 3, 2024: Iran’s ‘Hard Revenge’ Against Israel & Maduro Clings to Power

Episode Date: August 3, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: We kick off with a look at events in the Middle East, most notably the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed by a hidden explosive device in Tehran while attending the swearing-in of Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. We'll be joined by Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies to discuss the fallout. Later in the show, Venezuela's government is cracking down on any resistance to President Nicolás Maduro, announcing hundreds of arrests following this week's election... okay, it wasn't really an election... but, whatever you want to call the bogus process, evidence suggests Maduro lost decisively. WSJ South America Bureau Chief Juan Forero will bring us the latest on that. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  To watch this episode on YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief ☕ Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Code: PDB 🏅 Patriot Gold: https://www.patriotgoldgroup.com Say Mike Baker sent you 💵 Tax Network: www.tnusa.com/mike Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How many discounts does USAA auto insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount. Safe driver discount? New vehicle discount. Storage discount. How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply. This is Euphoria Calvin Klein, the new elixir collection,

featuring three perfume intense scents, inspired by a unique orchid accord, paired with vanilla, each with its own distinct attitude, each with its own universe, bold elixir, sensual, woody, addictive, magnetic elixir, sweet and romantic like a lingering touch, solar elixir, a radiant expression of joy, ultra-concentrated for amplified impact and lasting power. Find your euphoria. Discover the euphoria elixir collection by Calvin Klein. Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We'll kick off with a look at events in the Middle East.

Most notably, the assassination of Hamas leader Ishmael Hanyi, who was killed by a hidden explosive device in Tehran while attending the swearing in of Iran's new president, Masud Puzeshqin, will be joined by senior fellow Ben Teliblu from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies to discuss the fallout. Later in the show, Venezuela's government is cracking down on any resistance to President Nicholas Maduro, announcing hundreds of arrests following this week's election. Okay, it wasn't really an election. But whatever you want to call the bogus process, evidence suggests that Maduro lost it decisively.

Wall Street Journal, South American Bureau Chief Juan Ferreiro, will bring us the latest on that. But first, the situation report spotlight. Iran is vowing retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ishmael Hanyi in Tehran. Now, according to a report in the New York Times, Hanye was killed using an explosive device covertly hidden weeks before the assassination took place. The bomb was concealed in a guest house in a supposedly secure IRGC compound in a wealthy Tehran neighborhood where Hanye was known to stay. Now, according to anonymous Iranian and American sources,

the explosive device was reportedly concealed in the guest house some two months ago, and detonated remotely once he, Hanyi, was inside his room. The fact that the bomb was smuggled inside the guesthouse, which was under the protection of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicates a shocking breach of security for the IRGC. The Iranian government and Hamas, say Israel, carried out the assassination. Now Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. Hanyi's death is a dramatic blow to Hamas,

eliminating its most public figure who headed up the group's political operations while living a lavish lifestyle overseas. And by lavish, I mean, Hanye had a net worth reported to be approximately $4 billion, money which he and his Hamas leadership cohorts have pocketed over the years from funds that were actually meant for the well-being of the Palestinian people. In addition to Hanier, Israel also eliminated a top Hezbollah commander,

Fouad Shuker, this week, following a deadly attack late last week, which claimed the lives of a dozen children and teenagers on an Israeli football pitch near the border with Lebanon. Joining me now for more on this is senior fellow from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy's Benem Ben Taliblu. Benham, listen, thank you very much for taking the time to join us again today. It's very timely given that, and you correct me if I'm wrong, we seem like we're extremely close to a potential direct conflict between Iran and Israel.

Great to be with you, Mike. Always a pleasure. No, you're absolutely right. There is a quote-unquote public morning ceremony that'll end in a couple hours from now, Tehran time, which is eight and a half hours ahead of East Coast time. And then at any time past the end of that public morning time, the regime could take what it calls a hard revenge. This is the same kind of language that the country's supreme leader, and that's the title meant to be taken rather literally, as well as the military establishment, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have all promised, and they used this language back in January 2020,

when the U.S. killed Iran's chief terrorist Qasem Soleimani in Iraq with a drone strike. The regime left the shadows, then, fired ballistic missiles publicly, overtly, and directly from its territory against American bases in Iraq. Fast forward to this April, the regime did that again for the first. time, a historic first direct strike against Israel. And we have a Persian saying, like, when your fear erodes, we say, Paset-Serich, your fear has dripped away. And it kind of talks about how you can be emboldened to do something.

And the fact that the regime survived that round, and unfortunately, in my view, I think, won that last round with Israel because Israel could not claim its attack on Iranian radar facilities in Isfahan, while Tehran absolutely did claim it's 300. missiles and drones, most of which were intercepted, by the way, means that it's kind of wet the appetite of Iran's theocrats that when they're put in the box, they will be able to lash out this way. And so both for political reasons and military reasons, I think this will be a rough couple of days ahead.

Okay, now I know this is, you know, wandering off into speculation territory, but based on all your experience, watching Iran, watching the region, what do you think their retaliation will look like? I certainly think April 13 set an important benchmark. And during that attack, the regime launched three different types of munitions directly from its territory. One were suicide drones, the famous Delta Wing Shahid class drones, which, as you know, the Russians are using in Ukraine. The 131 and the 136, those are two variants of basically kamikaze low and slow flying drones propelled by a piston. That's one. Two is land attack cruise missiles.

The regime didn't fire many of these, but this is. is basically a much more effective munition that flies, you know, parallel with the surface of the earth. And then one missile that goes high and fast, you know, ballistic missiles, and the regime mostly fired liquid fuel ballistic missiles. I think the April 13 attacks sets an important benchmark and baseline for us to understand, because that, in my view, was the regime pressing the gas and the pedal at the same time. Remember, there was a 12-day public lead-in where even outlets like CBS News were, able to guess the exact weapons Iran would be using. The regime was taking them out of storage, fueling them, leaving them there, reportedly telegraphing the attack. I think we may have a much

shorter window today, plus one additional complicating factor, which is that because it was the head of Hamas killed in Iran, and because it was a major Hezbollah operative killed in Beirut, you're likely going to have other elements from this Iran-backed axis of resistance join in as well. And if about 100 ballistic missiles and I don't know how many 150, 200 drones were insufficient to overwhelm Israeli and allied air missile defenses before, perhaps further layering that attack with something from Iraqi Shia militias, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas and Gaza, or Hezbo and Lebanon. So I think you're likely going to have multi-front participation. This is a phenomenon the Israelis call eunification of the fronts. That's something that we know they've long feared and worried about. And it'll mean that if the U.S. is going to perform the same role it did in the past. And we have comments from Secretary of Defense Austin that hint that the U.S. would do this already.

We're going to have to surge in more assets, have really great ISR, and then also do more than just engage in deterrence by denial, in my view. We may actually have to engage in deterrence by punishment, because if the regime thinks they'll keep winning these rounds, it'll continue moving out of the shadows and become a more effective hybrid warfighter. Do you think the current administration, the Biden administration, would take direct action, meaning aside from providing munitions

and resource support, intelligence support, would they take direct action against Iran? All now sequel, I think not. And I don't believe that's just my assessment. I think that's the assessment of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah. I think he's even said this in the past,

that, you know, the Americans will be restraining Israel. The Iranians haven't said it this directly, but it's based, baked into their assumption. And that is quite worrisome because, you know, constantly engaging in this much more expensive architecture of deterrence by denial, well, that means the adversary is really only losing the value of the missile or the rocket or the mortar or the drone that they fire. But if you kind of academically threaten that which they hold dear, then, you know, you could be able to, you know, flip the script on them, if you will.

But I think it's unfortunately Iran and the allies of Iran, this acts of resistance, this correct understanding of not just this Biden administration, but three different administration, is trying to push away from the region and the ability of our adversaries to read that and to Take the title of a Michael Hayden book playing to the edge to play to the edge on that Is what really got us in this scenario There are some kind of conspiracy theorists and people who say well the strike may have been done by Israel to drag the US into a conflict I don't necessarily see that You know this is something these really political leadership promised to do right after October 7 which was to go after

the Hamas political and military leadership. Yeah, now I think the previous attack, the previous direct attack by Iran against Israel, appeared to be, and intelligence kind of indicates that it was, as you implied telegraphed, to some of the other regional players. And it almost appeared as if they understood that that information would then make its way to the U.S. and to Israel.

And so this was, it was, I don't want to say it was sort of a kabuki dance, you know, but there was some theater in that previous attack. Do you worry that what's happening or what's going to happen next isn't that, but it's, in other words, I mean, it's not a one-off. It's perhaps leading to the next step in a conflict, which is a continued effort to perhaps just end this once and for all. Well, I think it's still much more incremental or gradual,

but it was the baseline from where we're starting is already a very, very dangerous place. Just one note on the April 13th. I liken it to putting your foot on the gas and the brakes at the same time. So it was telegraphed, but it was lethal. They wanted to be seen doing it. They got political benefits from using military force, but they also wanted to destroy and they also wanted to kill. But then now when we look at what are the other drivers of Iranian escalation? You know, they're embarrassed. You're absolutely right to talk about the breaches of security. You've had Taliban officials, I think, within the past hours now saying that Israel and Iran are two sides of the same coin, basically saying that the regime in Tehran was complicit for the killing of someone that the Taliban had called a martyr, Ismail Haniyah, Hamas. So there's all of these different drivers trying

to get the regime to flex its muscles. And unfortunately, I think this axis is very good at using military means to accomplish political ends. That's not something that the U.S. and Israel are quite good at. We're good at using military means to achieve military ends. And then the politics has not always followed it, the past 20 years in the Middle East that shown for us. Benham, do you mean, I'm sorry to interrupt, Benham, but when you say that the Taliban was essentially saying that Iran was complicit in this assassination, were they referring to, they think that they actually played a role in allowing it to happen, or were they referring to the fact that there was just a massive security breach on the compound?

I think it was actually the former. You know, there's great ideational enmity between, you know, homainist 12 or Shi'i at Iran and radical Sunni Salafist, jihadist Taliban. It doesn't mean that these guys haven't coordinated with one another. It doesn't mean that they won't knife each other and shake hands every couple of years. But the baseline ideological difference is there. And this has been a long-held view of actually a lot of radical Sunni and jihadist organization.

That view has not impeded them from working occasionally with the Ministry of Intelligence or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. But this statement was a direct ideational attack on the governing ideology of the Islamic Republic and basically likening it to someone else that they believe also is, for lack of a better word, little Satan to take Iranian political parlance here. I mean, I think people intuitively understand

just how complex and layered the problems are out in this region. But maybe they don't. We sometimes are always looking. I think as Americans, we tend to look for this. most simple solution, right? It's like it's like listening to a news segment where you've got three and a half minutes. So let's have a beginning, a middle, and an end and tell a simple story. And it's, I've been doing this a long time and I'm always amazed at just how complex the relationships and

conflicts are in this region. Benham, if you would, please stay right there. We're going to take a quick break and then we'll be right back with more on this. You know, every day, we hear more about surveillance and how our right to privacy is being infringed upon. And it's true. It feels like we're living in a world where nothing is truly private anymore. Most of us, you know, frankly for the sake of convenience, hand over our personal information without a second thought, signing up for services, shopping online, or using social media. But this convenience comes at a cost. It's time for us now to take a stand and fight back for our right to privacy. One tool that's been essential for me in this fight is the all-in-one privacy app, MySudo.

It's an app that lets you create multiple digital identities with separate phone numbers and emails so you can keep your personal information private. In this age of constant surveillance, having MySudo is crucial. Look, for my listeners, I've got a special deal. Go to MySudo.com slash Mike Baker and use code Mike Baker to get 30 days free. on a pseudo-pro yearly subscription. Take back your privacy with my pseudo. Trust me, it's worth it.

Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds-fueling AI or crypto's trillion-dollar swings, there's a money-side to every story. And when you see the money-side, you understand what others miss.

Get the money-side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. Let me bring back our guest, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy's Benham Ben Taliblu. Benham, this is going to be perhaps an odd question, but given all your experience and how long you've been dealing with and working around this region,

what was your initial reaction when you heard about the assassination of Chenei? Believe it or not, not shocked. Believe it or not, not shocked. I think it's a sharp contrast. You know, 12 hours ago, this guy is chanting death to America, death to Israel. 12 hours later, I think the Iranian press put his death at about 2 a.m. Tehran time. I was not shocked. Now, I didn't know the method.

You know, there was great debate. Was an assassin sentence? Was he poisoned? Was it a bomb that was planted? Or was it a projectile that was fired? ultimately we learned it was a bomb that was planted. But immediately I was reminded of the comment of a former, former Iranian Minister of Intelligence. I believe his name is Ali Unitsy.

And fun fact for those Iran watchers out there are Middle East watchers, the Minister of Intelligence in every cabinet in the Islamic Republic actually has to be a cleric. And the person has to be directly appointed with the consultation of the Supreme Leaders. So this is just those that's veneer of this system. This is a very highly securitized system. And what came to my mind is his comments where he said that essentially no Iranian security official should sleep safely at night. He was talking about the high degree of Mossad penetration. And that's a heck of a thing of a former intel minister to say that no official should be sleeping soundly at night.

that the adversaries of the regime had been able to infiltrate many of the regime's security services. And when you look at the track record of authoritarianism in that country, you layer that on top of this. It's clear to me that the people that they promote from mid-level management and above are not masters in the tradecraft or have this certain kind of intel confidence, but these guys are people with zeal and ideology. And that's precisely how you get the Swiss cheese-like situation. of the Iranian security apparatus today. When it's weak at home, it tries to project strength abroad.

And then at home, the only good a lot of these forces are, the only thing that these forces can do really is engage in that massive domestic repression that we've seen of the Iranian populace. They can't even secure their own borders. Yeah, no, from an operational perspective, which is, I guess, how I tend to look at everything. It was a solid hit.

The intel that allowed that to happen, the access that allowed that to happen was extremely impressive. So, and I'm just, again, just looking at it from a distance from an operational perspective. Talk to me a little bit about it, if you could. The new Iranian president, he was obviously, there was a lot of talk about, well, he's the only moderate candidate. And look at that. Now he's installed as the president.

Tell me what you know about him. So this guy has basically been promoted, Massoud Pazchkian. He's a parliamentarian, he's a medical doctor. Like most of the regime's political and military elite, he served in the Iran-Iraq war at that point as a medic. He cut his teeth in that conflict. And despite much of this framing of him as a reformist, he's from the wing of the quote-unquote reformist faction of the Islamic Republic that is very statist.

It's not about actually changing the way things are done. about changing the veneer of the way things are done. And this has really been the only element of the reform movement that's been permitted over the past two decades to even have a marginal, if not that, if not only that voice in the system. So this is someone here who's not there to change business. He knows where his bread is buttered multiple times. This guy has thanked the Supreme Leader for keeping him in the race.

Wink-wink, we think the Supreme Leader may have been the one who backed his candidacy from the get-go. But ultimately, this guy, in my view, is a human shield against a more united Western pressure policy. Under the past three years of the Raeisi government, the budget was out of control. And while the regime was trying to rope a dope U.S. military partners in the region to engage in diplomacy with Iran, countries like UAE, countries like Saudi Arabia, countries like Azerbaijan. At that time, the Iranians joined the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Bricks organization. Nonetheless, the Europeans and the Americans had collaborated together on a host of sanctions regimes. The Iranian provision of drones to Russia got the Europeans to be actually quite

tough on the nonproliferation front, on the arms transfer front. The massive crackdown after 2022-20023 Women Life Freedom Movement got at least 10 to 12 rounds of European sanctions against the Iranians. Last October, the Europeans kept over 200 missile military and nuclear designations on their sanctions list they were supposed to get sanctions relief to. And so in spite of all, in face with all of this, I think the regime was looking for a facelift, for a facelift for someone who would bring a different style rather than a different substance. And with respect to the thing that orients and animates much of the West, which is Iran's nuclear program, this guy is there to function as a human shield against the deadline that we have coming up

in that Iranian nuclear deal, the JCPOA, that is October, time per the UN that the participants of the deal can engage in something called SNAPAC, where they basically scrap the legal mechanism of the deal and the UN resolution around it all together, and they bring back all the older multi-rattle rounds of pressure and economic sanctions, and even the baseline understandings of like no enrichment in Iran, no missile testing in Iran, no arms transfers to or from Iran, and use that as a baseline for a bigger, better Iran policy. And I think the Iranians understand this, and they will try and political runarounds as possible. And essentially installing...

I think this guy is going to run the clock. So essentially installing him as window dressing. Do you think the... This is a tough question. I know, and it's also a soft science. But do you think the average Iranian citizen is pragmatic and views it in that light? Or do they feel as if perhaps... putting him in place could lead to some changes.

In fact, I think the vast majority, I know the vast majority of the Iranian citizens didn't even vote. The fact that the regime had to artificially inflate the electoral numbers between the first round and the second round. The first round had the lowest ever turn out in the 45-year history of the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The population really since 2017 has been talking about the two words that Washington is afraid to use in its Iran policy. discussion, which is regime change. You know, for a very long time, the population used to come out in relatively high numbers and vote, try to vote for the least bad candidates in their mind, try to vote for the candidates the furthest away from the security establishment. All of that

failed. And with the consistent overpromise and under-delivery of the reform movements and they basically takeover of the state by the security apparatus, the population has chosen to look to the street and not the ballot box to make its voice heard, which is why we get these major boom and bus cycles of protest that we've seen since 2017 and most recently with the woman life freedom protest. We're certainly going to see more of that in my view. But this guy was also promoted to the helm, Massoud Pazishkyan, not to extend the hand to this opposition, be it abroad or at home, but to try to stymie them, to try to fracture them. And to hope that by his change in tone and the facelift that he may provide the regime, that the opposition would lose

steam that the ability and the desire to go out on the street would lose steam. But less we forget, a lot of these shocks are economic, ecological, foreign policy. So it's still very much a Tinderbox. Now, this, we're getting close to running out of time. I want to be mindful of your time. So I'm going to ask you a question that probably would take an endless amount of time to answer, but we've got very short period here. With the conflict right here, staring us in the face a potential Iranian retaliation, possible input from their proxies. Looking down the road, what needs to happen, I know this is not a fair question to ask you when we have little time, but what needs to happen to get us to a point where we could

actually have peace or stability in this relationship, in this region? This is, it might be bitter medicine, but I think so long as you have the government of the Islamic Republic led by the hardened men who are at the helm of that regime today, you're not going to have peace and stability. And in the times where you may have the lulls in the conflict or lulls in the threat vectors, those lulls would have to be achieved by the regime extorting you. It's basically what they did to Saudi Arabia. You know, they had 10 years of the Houthis firing missiles at the Saudis. And then after that, the Iranians came in and had that little diplomatic deal. They opened up their embassy again, and then now, despite the multi-front war, the Houthis are not firing missiles at the Saudis. But it's forever a sword of Damocles that the regime can dangle over the head of the Saudis if things go sideways again. So I think that is something that we have to keep at the front of our minds, that this regime is looking to extort many in the region, is looking to push the Americans out of the region, and is looking to continue its ideological war with Israel in the region. And in that situation, there's really a limited number of things that we can do that will not come with a certain amount of cost. But number one has to be no own goals, not with our regional partners.

We have to make sure we have their back, and now with our transatlantic partners. And then together we can build a better baseline Iran policy, things that are required for this are snapback. We need the legal authorities push for tougher sanctions against the Iranians. We need the legal authorities to block the transshipments and block the weapons proliferation, that it's basically, on steroids now. Iranian drones can be found in four different continents today. That's a huge problem. Many of these proxies have Iranian projectiles like missiles.

That's a huge problem. And then ultimately, we need to get much better in the deterrence by punishment game. And so long as we don't play that game, the regime is going to continue this death by a thousand cut strategy against us and against our partners while ultimately trying to develop the ultimate deterrent weapon for itself, which is its nuclear program. and that would be a very toxic situation and one that the time actually is running out on to avoid. Yeah, I think talking about tougher sanctions, I think talking about dealing with them in the manner that you're discussing, that won't happen as long as the U.S. administration continues to put Iran apisers in key positions within the government.

But that makes me sound churlish and cynical. Ben Tamablu, listen, the senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, thank you again. for joining us today. I hope that when we call, that you'll pick up the phone again because I suspect that this is, this problem's not going away anytime soon. My pleasure. Thanks for having me, Mike. Absolutely, Benham. Take care. Coming up next, we turn to Venezuela, where dictator Maduro continues to cling to power despite strong evidence that he was defeated in this week's presidential election. Wall Street Journal, South American Bureau Chief Juan Ferrerl. We'll join us for more on that. Stay with us.

Hey, if you're a listener to the PDB, well, you know there's a lot going on in the world today. And by that I mean a lot. Authoritarian regimes on the march, wars overseas, and political turmoil across the globe. This is why now more than ever you should support those on the right side of history. Blackout coffee is committed to your values, supporting constitutional rights, and certainly supporting those on the front lines, the troops, local law enforcement, and frankly, all hardworking America. I'm proud to recommend Blackout Coffee. This is a coffee company that is 100% committed to American traditional values. From sourcing the beans to the roasting process, customer support, and shipping.

They've got an incredible work ethic and are dedicated to promoting your principles, and they accept no compromise on taste or quality. Check out Blackout Coffee.com slash PDB and use coupon code PDB for 20% off your first order. Ditch those other guys. Just get rid of them, right? focus on Blackout Coffee because they remain true to your values. That's blackout coffee.com slash PDB. Use coupon code PDB for 20% off your first order.

As they say around here, be awake, not woke. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task, unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website to marketing to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz, and all birds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into?

Sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer. I wrote a little song to remind you, choice hotels, get you more of the experiences you value. The can be a hotel's got it all. A rooftop bar, have a ball. Cocktails up here feel just right. It's Cambriamesean all right. Bring a date, your team, or even your mom. Book direct at choiceotails.com.

See you on the roof. Protests are continuing across Venezuela after the government-controlled electoral authority declared dictator Nicholas Maduro the winner. Oh, look at that. Despite strong indications and evidence that the opposition candidate had actually won by a significant amount. Now, despite international efforts to pressure Maduro, the regime has launched a severe crackdown on the opposition. Government security forces have detained volunteer poll watchers who monitor the election, and Maduro is now urging Venezuelans to report protesters who question his re-election.

How very dictator-like of him. Government officials and civil society groups report that over 1,000 people have been arrested, and at least 16 have been killed in mass protests. since the election results were announced. Maduro's electoral council says he defeated challenger Edmundo Gonzalez by seven percentage points to win another term in office, but has refused to publish voting data to support the claim.

However, independent exit polling suggested Gonzalez captured twice as many votes as Maduro. On Thursday, Venezuela's main opposition leader, Maria Corrina Machado, wrote in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, I am writing this from hiding, fearing for my life, my freedom, and that of my fellow countrymen from the dictatorship led by Nicholas Maduro, end quote. Now, for more on this developing situation, very pleased to welcome our next guest, Wall Street Journal, South American Bureau Chief Juan Ferrero. Juan. Great to be here. Thank you very much.

And again, I want to say, look, I know you're extremely busy. So taking some time out to talk with us here at the Situation Report is very good. much appreciated. If you could, let's start with sort of being at the 30,000 foot level, if you could give our viewers an overall understanding of what's happened here in the past several days. Sure. Well, first of all, I think we need to kind of lay out a little bit of the background in the sense that Maduro was up for re-election this year. And so he had to do something, either call off the election, hold an election, arrest his opponents. They opted to do. go with an election. They spent a lot of money. They control the media. They arrested a lot of opposition

activists. I think some people in the regime actually thought that they would win. But in the end, the vote on Sunday was overwhelmingly for Edmundo Gonzalez, who's a former diplomat, who kind of became sort of the accidental candidate in the sense that Maduro had already arbitrarily set aside and barred two candidates from running against him. Even though polls showed that Edmundo would win by a big margin, they went ahead with the election. And of course, afterwards, it became clear that night and into Monday morning that actually what had happened was that Gonzalez had won by a very significant margin. Since then, the Venezuelan opposition has actually published the actual tally sheets from the voting

stations. Now, how do they have that? That's because in Venezuela, you were permitted to have what they called testigos, or literally witnesses, in each of the voting stations. So these people were able to get these actas, as they're called, which are these tally sheets, tabulations, and able to show exactly how the vote went down. In the end, they were able to get about 70% of these tabulations, which also underscores that there were a lot of people, possibly from the military, possibly from even the ruling socialist party, who helped get some of these tabulations out into opposition hands. These, these, this data went into a database. Anybody can go in there with their Venezuelan ID and see how they voted, see how it turned out on the actus or the tally sheets.

Anyway, it's an overwhelming victory. Maduro was not pleased that this was all made public, although by law, it should be made public. I mean, Venezuela law permits. this. And so there has been a hard line crackdown in the last five days. And I mean, this is not a surprise statement, I suppose, but there has been, I think, from our perspective, very little coverage of these developments, right, and of the growing protests. Does that surprise you? Are you concerned about what could be complacency or lack of interest in what's going on? Well, look, I can't speak for other media. I know that sort of the big American and British and say Spanish media, we're in Venezuela and covering this quite in depth, you know, from us to the Times to the Post, to the Financial Times, AP, etc., all that. There isn't much in the way of television coverage outside of CNN. And now what I do fear, though, is that there will be far, far less because right now the regime is basically closing the door on journalists. You know, journalists who went into Venezuela only had a few days

to be there. They were supposed to be out, I think, a couple of days ago in terms of like their visas and so forth. So reporters are leaving the country. Their flights have been canceled, flights in and out have been canceled, et cetera. And I think with Maduro in crisis mode right now, basically focused on arresting people inside of Venezuela, we're going to see really a situation where the place is going to be sort of airtight. You know, it's going to be hard to get in. It's going to be hard to get information from there. Having said that, Venezuelans are very democratic.

I mean, they knew that this was likely going to happen. And they voted in huge numbers. People flew to Venezuela to cast their ballots, you know, because there's 8 million Venezuelans outside of the country. So there is this sense that we need to participate in democracy. see, we need to do our part. Now the issue is going to be, well, there's NGOs in Venezuela, there's various human rights groups, there's activists and so forth. These are people who are very brave. They've been up against this regime for many years. The question is how hard line

is the crackdown going to be against these people? As you mentioned, there's already been people have been killed in protest, and they've been rounding people up. So based on your experience in the region, where do you think this ends up? I know that's a tough question to answer and there's some speculation involved, but is Maduro going to just continue the crackdown and then eventually we all get distracted and look elsewhere and worry about other things and there he is for a full third term? Or do you think that these protests could build to the point where he's endangered? You know, Mike, it's hard to say because it's too early right now and we don't know how strong the military and the security apparatus is in terms of being fully behind him.

They have been in the past. And it's important to note that the generals and the colonels, a high upper echelon of various armed forces. We're talking about the Army. We're talking about the National Guard, the National Police, a couple of different intelligence agencies and stuff. These people feed at the same trough as the regime. bigwigs. In other words, they're involved in gold mining. They're involved in contraband trade of gasoline. They're involved in cocaine trade. These are people who've grown very rich. This regime has been very good to them. And they also know that if they turn against it, it is a brutal

regime in terms of going against people who are ID'd as having gone against Maduro. We've seen this throughout history. So it's a little bit too early to say, but I have to say that this is, Maduro's wounded. He's a wounded animal. I mean, this vote was incredibly, was an incredibly powerful message that anyone who is honest with themselves intellectually would say that this, this shows that the Venezuelan people revile this man. You know, it was a clear, it was a clear cut result. And so that before the world seriously hurts his regime. The question is, you know, what are the military men going to do? You know, I mean, you may have some colonels, some captains, some majors who don't believe in this, but they're thinking to themselves, do I really want to spend the rest of my life in prison or get myself killed here?

That's the situation. That's that's the difficult situation and the difficult option that some of these people face. I think it's a great what you said about, you know, they're all feeding at the same trough. And look, the question of loyalty within the military, we've seen that play out time and time again in different parts of the world when we're talking about dictators, when we're talking about potential for a coup

or for the military to shift loyalties and realize that perhaps that time is up. So have you seen, and again, this is a tough question and not kind of a soft science, but in your work, that of the team of Wall Street Journal reporters in the area. Have you seen any cracks in that, in that loyalty, in that, that, is there any daylight at all that you've, you've seen between the military and Maduro? Not this week.

Not this week. In terms of military high command, there are some, some lower level ex-soldiers, I should say, who've posted videos, but, you know, going against the regime and so. But we don't know if these people are in Venezuela or in Florida. You know, we just don't know. And so there's very little information about that. I mean, so you know, I mean, in recent years, you have had thousands of desertions from the Venezuelan military. Many of those people, the Colombian national police have told me that more than 10,000 have come to Colombia.

Some of those people, of course, went on to Florida and to other countries and so forth. But you had a lot of ex-servicemen come into Columbia into other countries fleeing. And you certainly have had people in the high command who have left and, you know, important intelligence agents and people like that. But not this time. I mean, it's a little bit too early right now, I think. And perhaps the crackdown is too ferocious to prod anyone or lead anyone to turn against the regime publicly. But we haven't seen anything at the moment.

Okay. Yeah, that's fascinating. Then you have to ask yourself, are they fleeing because they simply want a better life? Are they fleeing because of, you know, disagreements and, you know, shifting sentiments with Maduro. One, if you wouldn't mind, stay right there. We've got actually another major story to discuss. And that's the release of Wall Street Journal reporter, Evan Grishkovic, from a Russian prison.

And it was a complicated, multi-country negotiated deal involving eight countries, including Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway, Belarus. So we'll be right back with that and with Juan Ferrero. If you've been paying attention to the financial news, and I hope that you have, because it's very important, experts are beginning to express concern that the U.S. dollar could lose its status as the world standard. Look, the warning signs are there.

Saudi Arabia ending the petro dollar, Russia replacing U.S. dollars with the Chinese currency for trades, and BRICS. nations attracting countries and getting them to move away from the U.S. dollar. The global de-dollarization trend, as we call it, is accelerating. And in times of uncertainty, like these, gold is security. Call the proud Americans of the Patriot Gold Group today. Before it's too late, mention PDB,

and you'll always get best in class service from Patriots protecting Patriots. Patriot Gold Group has the no-fee-for-life IRA, where your IRA or 401K can be in physical gold and silver, and you may be eligible for the no-fee-for-life IRA on qualifying rollovers. Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. Patriot Gold Group is Consumer Affairs top-rated gold IRA dealer. Forget this, seven years in a row. That's a lot of years in a row.

Call 1-888-870-5457. Hey there. Are you overwhelmed with back taxes or unfiled returns? Hopefully not. But get this. With 88,000 newly hired agents, that's 88,000 of them. The IRS has increased enforcement issuing millions of pay-up notices in 2024. Think about that. You walk out to your mailbox. It's a beautiful sunny day. You open your mailbox and there's a pay-up notice from the IRS. But don't face IRS collection tactics alone. Tax Network USA can help. As the nation's premier tax-relief firm. They've negotiated over $1 billion, that's with a B, in tax relief for clients. Services include

penalty forgiveness, hardship programs, and offer in compromise solutions. Look, whether you owe $10,000 or $10 million, how you owe $10 million, their experts can assist behind on taxes, well, they can guide you in catching up. Protect your financial security. Contact Tax Network USA for strategic advice on reducing or eliminating your tax debt. Now, to schedule a complimentary consultation, call 1-800-245-6,000, or visit tnusa.com. Look, don't let the IRS control your life. Empower yourself with Tax Network USA's support and take charge of your financial future. Visit tnusa.com today.

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. I'm joined once again by Wall Street Journal, South American Bureau Chief Juan Ferrero. Juan, we've been talking about Venezuela, of course, and we touched on tangentially the difficulties of covering this growing situation in Venezuela with the protests possibly building and where that could lead us because of, as you pointed out, journalists having to leave the country. And then Maduro and his cadre denying access, canceling flights. And that kind of ties in to a very happy story that I'm excited to talk to you about. And it's just always nice to talk about good news every now and then.

The Situation Report covers a lot of crises, a lot of conflicts. So the return of Evan from Russia, along with several others, talk to me about that. Talk to me about your feelings, the feelings of the newsroom. How's it playing out at the Wall Street Journal? Well, people are just overjoyed. As you mentioned, it's good news in the midst of a lot of dark news globally. So to have our man back and free is just an amazing thing for the paper because it was, you know,

the newspaper was really in crisis mode for 16 months since Evan Gerskovich's arrest in Russia, you know, while he was reporting. He was a fully credentialed reporter based out of Moscow, and he was nabbed exactly for this purpose to be part of some kind of prisoner exchange, which is exactly what happened. Now, we talked about this before. We had a chance to get started with the situation report, but you referenced the fact that this is not an uncommon activity in Venezuela. I mean, by that sort of this hostage diplomacy idea of picking up innocence off the street from another nation. and using them as leverage or trade bait. Talk to me about what's happened in Venezuela.

Yeah, well, you know, Venezuela, first of all, is a very close ally of the Putin regime. And really, you have a series of allies, pariah states that work together, you know, Russia, Iran, Cuba, you know, Venezuela, et cetera. And these countries, especially like Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and so forth, I mean, they're one of their, MOs is to pick up citizens of the West, whether from the United States or Germany or Britain or wherever, and use them as pawns to get back spies and others that are arrested in the West. In Venezuela, we had a situation recently where the United States did do a pretty significant trade, a bunch of Americans who had been nabbed inside of Venezuela.

These are guys who had gone there to do tourism, to meet girls. I mean, it was just a mix of things. A couple of servicemen and all that. They were traded for Venezuelans in the United States. And, you know, mainly the main person that Venezuela wanted was a guy named Alex Saab, who was Maduro's money man. This is the guy who basically was importing food and other stuff and, you know, shaving a certain percentage off. that, which would be shared with people in the regime and so forth. He was key in in helping Venezuela break through a U.S. oil embargo on Venezuela in order to do business with other countries

and so forth. He had been arrested in Cape Verde, island off the coast of Africa, and then eventually after a long tug of war, the United States was able to get its hands on him. He'd been indicted in the U.S. and prosecutors were, you know, they were, they were building a case against it. But this deal with the United States between the United States and in Washington led to his release. And he was greeted as a hero in Venezuela, much as these ex-spies and so forth, there's an assassin in that group, were greeted as spies in Moscow by Putin, directly by Putin on the tarmac. What does this mean when we see what happens, including Venezuela, but obviously, you know, top of the storyline now is what's happened in Russia with this hostage diplomacy.

And how is that impacting journalism, right? I mean, your job is to travel the world, report on the facts, provide insight to the rest of the world that's not able to be on the ground and see what's happening. Is there a significant impact at this stage of the game? I mean, is the Moscow Bureau, as example, for Wall Street Journal? Is that just shuttered at this point? Or how do you deal with this problem? Yeah.

I mean, the answer to your question is yes. I mean, we have to take special precautions. We do not have a presence in Russia. We cover Russia intensively, but our reporters are in Europe. They're in Eastern Europe. They're in London. They're all over the world, actually. I mean, there's obviously a lot that you can do by phone and, you know,

encrypted messages and so forth. So we cover Russia intensively. But, you know, you can't have a person on the street, you know, talking ordinary folks, getting a feel for, you know, the color and so forth. You know, we... It sounds like... Sorry, well, not to interrupt, but it sounds like when you say things like that out loud, it reminds me of sort of this concept of over the horizon capabilities for for operations,

right, for intelligence operations and military operations. And I know from experience that it can be done, but it's not anywhere near as effective. Yeah. I mean, look, we we have and continue to cover Venezuela with boots on the ground. And we have covered countries like Cuba and so forth getting people in and out and so forth. So we actually just play it by ear, depending on the situation, depending on the story, et cetera. But I think media outlets do need to be careful in some of these countries because of that danger. I mean, we've seen in Iran, you know, Washington Post journalist was jailed there. And that was a really long period of time. I can't remember if it was two or three years, maybe more. This was while ago now, but Iran holds a number of Americans.

And, you know, the United States basically warns Americans against travel to a bunch of these countries. I mean, basically, the State Department says, don't go. I mean, the United States cannot legally bar an American for traveling wherever he or she wants to travel, but the United States strongly, you know, recommends that Americans do not go. Obviously, it's a little bit different from journalists. I mean, in some places, there is a certain level of respect. In the case of Venezuela, for instance, Venezuela was providing visas for journalists to go. Not everyone.

A lot of reporters were denied their visas to go for this election. But it also underscores something that I mentioned earlier, that maybe the Venezuelans thought they were going to win. You know, they wanted to put on a show, you know. And so in those kinds of events, you know, I think that the level of security and so forth might be a little better. But it can also change on a dime as it has in Venezuela right now. because suddenly Venezuela went from celebrating an election to cracking down on anyone who would question that Maduro won the vote. Yeah, not dipping back in history for no reason, but a couple decades ago plus, I mean, the same thing happened in Algeria, right? The military there's thought,

you know what, it'd be a good idea. So let's hold an election and then they lost and then they decided, you know what? There, not so much with the election and that place descended into a very nasty situation for quite some time. It was very ugly. Very hopeful that the same doesn't happen in Venezuela. And Juan, I do hope that you'll come back because I would love to kind of dip back in, take a look at the situation in Venezuela in a little bit of time, and also talk further about the region, because I firmly believe that South America does not get the attention that it should from the U.S. administration and also in general terms awareness from the public. Juan Ferraro, South American Bureau Chief of the Wall Street Journal.

Again, congrats and such a happy day for everyone in Evans Wall Street Journal family. Thank you very much for joining us today, Juan. Appreciate it. Take care, sir. Well, that is all the time we have for the PDB situation report for today. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out at pdb at thefirsttv.com. Now, the PDB staff, including, of course, our crack team, of interns love getting your emails, your faxes, your beeper messages, your Western Union telegrams.

And every month, we take a bunch of your questions, of course, and comments, and we conclude them in a monthly episode that we call, and it's a catchy word or title, ask me anything. Yeah, within reason, of course. To listen to the podcast of this show ad free, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. And remember, new episodes of the PDB situation. air every Friday at 10 p.m. on the first TV. And of course, on all podcast platforms and our juggernaut that is the YouTube channel

at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Until next time, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here from MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying.

It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did. One of your assistance assistants assistants switch you to MintMobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan, equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com.