The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | August 31, 2024: Ukraine's New Missiles & Israel's West Bank Offensive

Episode Date: August 31, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report Ukraine unveils two new domestically produced weapons, including a drone missile and a ballistic missile, both showing promising results. We'll get into the details with intelligence analyst and weapons expert Ryan McBeth. Israel launches its largest operation in the West Bank since the October 7th attacks, targeting key figures in Palestinian Islamic Jihad. IDF Brigadier General Doron Gavish shares his insights on the mission and its implications. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Ryan McBeth: https://www.youtube.com/@RyanMcBethProgramming https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com ☕ Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB 🏅 Patriot Gold: Patriot Gold: Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide 💵 Tax Network USA: To schedule a complimentary consultation, call 1(800)958-1000 or visit https://TNUSA.com/MIKE 🕶️ MySudo: Go to https://MySudo.com/MIKEBAKER & use code 'MIKEBAKER' to get 30 days free on a SudoPro yearly subscription Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start today's show in Ukraine, where the military has unveiled two new domestically produced weapons. One is a drone missile that saw successful deployment earlier this week. And the other, a new ballistic missile, well, it's just completed a successful test firing. We'll dive into the details with intelligence analyst and weapons expert Ryan Macbeth.

Later, Israel launches its largest operation in the West Bank since the brutal attacks on 7 October, that started this now almost year-long conflict. Only days into the West Bank operation, the IDF has announced that they've eliminated a top commander for Palestinian Islamic jihad, wanted for his role in countless terror attacks. IDF Brigadier General Doran Gavish will give us his insight. But first, our situation report's spotlight.

It's been a challenging week for Ukraine, as the country faced a series of extensive Russian drone and missile attacks, some of the most significant since the war began. These strikes primarily targeted civilian areas and Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure. Now, despite these challenges, Ukraine has also made significant strides

in its defense capabilities. The Ukrainian government announced the successful launch of its first domestically developed drone missile, known as the Paliannizia. While many details remain classified, officials revealed that the Palaenicia is powered by a... a turbojet and could potentially strike over 20 Russian air bases, suggesting a range of at least

370 to 400 miles. But that's not all. Just a day later, President Zelensky revealed that Ukraine had successfully tested its first homegrown ballistic missile. Now specifics about the missile remain undisclosed, but it could mark a crucial milestone for Ukraine as it continues to bolster its defenses against Russia. me know for more on this is Ryan Macbeth. Ryan's a 20-year Army veteran, an intelligence analyst, software architect, and cybersecurity specialist. Is there anything this guy doesn't do? You have to ask

yourself. You can check out his work at ryan macbeth.substack.com or at his most excellent YouTube channel, and that's at Ryan Macbeth programming. Ryan, thank you for joining us again on the PDB. It's great to see you. Thank you for having me back. All right, tell me, now, these domestically produced weapons, are they game changers as far as you're concerned? Everything's been a game changer, right? The Hrem 2, what the Ukrainians call their ballistic missile, it's probably a variant of the Grom or Sapsan missile, which they've been worked on for quite a while now,

at least the past two years, trying to give that the extra ump to go about 1,000 kilometers. And the Palliancia, which I might be pronouncing wrong, missile is almost like the KH 141, which was a Soviet-era drone missile kind of combination thing that is powered by a jet engine, that Ukraine used as kind of a primitive cruise missile. So what these two weapons can do is they can threaten Russian air bases. And that's a big deal. If you can threaten Russian air bases, specifically bomber bases like Ingalls Air Base in Russia,

that'll make it a lot harder for Russia to draw fire cruise missiles and drop glide bombs. And these glide bombs have been incredibly deadly. So is it a game changer? Everything's been a game changer, but it is an additional capability, which gives Russia more dilemmas. Well, and it would also seem that it gives Zelensky, it gives the Ukrainian military, more free reign, right? Because there's been this restriction on them,

particularly from the White House and the U.S., in terms of U.S., using U.S. munitions into Russian territory. So do you suspect that perhaps what they've done is they've rushed the development of these weapons to kind of get around, to do an end run on the restrictions that have been placed on them? Absolutely. You know, one of the issues is that whenever you fire an American-made weapon or a NATO-made weapon, all of the lot numbers and stamps and manufacturer numbers are still on that weapon.

And when that thing explodes, some of those pieces survive. And so Russia will take those pieces of cruise missile and show, hey, here's that Lockheed Martin stamp. Here's a lot number from Raytheon. And that could be an issue with Russia. They do not want NATO weapons striking inside their territory. Now, whether it's good or bad, that we prevent Ukraine from using our weapons on Russian territory is a separate issue entirely. but Ukraine definitely developed these capabilities that they could reach further into Russia

specifically to stop these deadly Glybomb attacks. Well, now you raised an interesting point. Obviously, you know, lobbying a Raytheon missile or some other manufacturer, not to do any free marketing for Raytheon, into Russian territory, it leaves evidence. And obviously, the White House has been placing restrictions on the U.S. are on Zelensky's use of U.S.

because of the fear of escalation. So I guess where I'm going with this question is, have you heard anything that would indicate that in an effort to assist Ukraine but also avoid that evidence and that potential escalation, the U.S. has provided assistance in the development of their domestic programs? I am not familiar with that, but I would not be surprised if the U.S. has aided in things like targeting. Oops, hey, here's this targeting.

here's this targeting information as to when Russian bombers are usually at Ingalls. That just kind of fell out of my pocket. I probably shouldn't have written that down when I was in the skit. So I would not be surprised if we're giving that information to Ukraine or at least passing that information to them surreptitiously. Ukraine has plenty of competent engineers. And in the big scheme of things, developing a ballistic missile really isn't that hard

or developing some kind of the drone jet power drone. It's not really that far. I've done it. I've done it myself. You know, there have been times when I've been bored, and I'll get the kids gathered around, and we'll develop our own ballistic missile. So you're right to that point.

I'm sorry. I might have interrupted you. No, no, that's perfectly okay. You know, the technology is there. One of the issues is that I believe there is an arms control treaty, which for the longest time prevented ballistic missiles from going more than I think it was about 310 miles or so, or 500 some kilometers.

Of course, that's out the window with you, Frank. They need to be able to strike these Russian airfields where the glide bombs are coming from and pounding places like Kyrsong. To what degree have you heard anything about redeployment of resources on the Russian side, right? I mean, obviously, you know, they've got to be concerned about an extended range capability

on the part of the Ukrainians. So have you heard any intel or otherwise about the Russian military redeploying or moving there, particularly their air assets. I have not heard anything about Russia moving their air assets. However, one additional capability that they have created fairly recently was they've allowed the MiG-31s, which are traditionally interceptors. They've created a way for it to carry Ischkinder ballistic missiles, which is kind of unique,

because these planes can take off far away. They were talking about in Western Russia or in the middle of Russia, or, yes, Western Russia, Eastern Russia, we're in the middle of Russia, and then launched these Iskinder ballistic missiles from a fighter platform, which is very, very uncommon, and that is totally out of range of anything that Ukraine. I mean, it shouldn't be a surprise. We talk about the domestic capabilities, the Ukrainians. I mean, look, they had a long history, you know, during the old days of cooperation.

and working with the Soviet Union, they didn't have any choice. And so they do have a well-developed track record of working in the military hardware business. But both of these, the drone missile, as they refer to it, and the ballistic missile, does it lighten the load? Does it lessen the requirement for Patriot missile systems, for other outside providers coming in? or are they still in relatively desperate need of that outside support? They're in desperate need. And the fact is that Ukraine can, I don't want to say win,

but Ukraine can certainly lose less. Now, there's no win in this war. There is lose and lose less. And the race is on to find out who loses less. Ukraine can certainly lose less if they have Western help. They don't have the manufacturing capabilities to fight against Russia without. Western help, but it is an additional resource that allows them to use Western weapons on

occupied areas while saving Ukrainian weapons for attacking targets inside Russia. So like I said, this is more like an additional capability rather than a game changer type weapon, but they still need the West's help. Okay. We could go off in a different direction. I was going to ask you a question And then I thought to myself that might be a little bit too political. Looking forward to the November election, right? Yeah, I'm going to throw this at you. In talking to all the various people that you deal with, all the experts, the contacts, the sources that you've got,

have you heard to what degree Zelensky and his leadership are worried about the potential for a Trump administration and what that could mean in terms of U.S. support? I have not heard any specific worrying from the top. There are some people who, I don't want to say, don't know how politics works, but there are some people who are genuinely fearful that if President Trump enters office, weapons might be cut off.

But I don't see that as a possibility, because, number one, the higher-ups in the Zelensky administration know that it was President Trump that sent lethal aid to Ukraine. When President Obama was sending night vision goggles and blankets, it was President Trump who said, no, we need to give these guys the javelin. Under President Trump, the National Guard, started visiting Ukraine and training their soldiers. And I think that President Trump's main fear is not Russia, it's China. And if we can't stand together on Ukraine, which is a country that's fairly easy to access

in Europe, we're not going to stand together in China, which is 3,600 miles away. from anything. So the best way of deterring China from invading Taiwan is to keep the weapons flowing to Ukraine. And I don't see that changing if President Trump enters office or if Vice President Harris becomes elected. What about, and I know I'm getting a little bit off-turf here, but what about the people who say, so what? Why are we even bothering? Right? I mean, what's the point of this? We should be spending that money at home. And there are a lot of people, right, who I suspect would be happy to see that happen. But how do you answer that question?

And I realize there's politics in this, and, you know, we were originally going to be talking about hardware and military tactics. But look, we're, you know, we're just around the corner from the election. And so I think you can't have a discussion about Ukraine without factoring in these other elements. Well, the truth is that we are spending that money at home. There's a lot of people who think that we're loading C-17s with pallets of money and then just parachuting it out over Ukraine and they're going and buy luxury cars with it. But the truth is that...

Wait, wait, we're not? You mean we're not doing that? They're not doing that. So, believe it or not. I just like the visual image of pallets of cash. I would love some. I will give the CIA, my adieu. they probably have it anyway and they can drop some cash.

Yeah, no, we do. Yeah, we do. So the truth is that rockets expire. The fuel in them actually expire. So we need to shoot these things. And if we don't shoot them, then we have to send them back to RTX and they have to be demilled. They have to be destroyed in a controlled environment.

That actually costs about as much money as making the missile because it's hazardous waste destroying these rockets. So it's actually easier to ship these rockets over to Ukraine, have Ukraine fire them, and that saves us a disposal cost. And we have to buy new missiles anyway. So when we say we're giving a billion dollars to Ukraine, we're not necessarily giving them that money. We're really taking that money and buying new weapons systems, which means American jobs, American manufacturing, American materials, American computer chips. we're putting those into missiles and weapons systems that were going to expire anyway and be destroyed. So that money is being used.

Yeah, now that's a promo for the military industrial complex. But in terms of geopolitics and sort of the structure of the world and national security, I want to revisit this and say, you know, how do we explain that to someone who's skeptical about support for Ukraine? but explain it that way rather than economic terms. Because I take your point, and I think you're absolutely right, but I want to look at it from why is it important from a global stability issue. But first of all, you need to stay right there. We're going to take a quick break.

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Now, you can check him out at ryanmibeth.substack.com or at his YouTube channel at Ryan Macbeth programming. Ryan, we were talking before the break. I asked that question, which is, I'm always fascinated by it, which is when someone says, why are we bothering with Ukraine? Why is that important to us? And you gave a, I thought, a very insightful answer as to, from the economic side, from the money side, the resource side.

But what do you tell someone in that situation as far as global stability or national security concerns? Why is it important from that perspective for the U.S.? Well, I can tell you this. I am old enough to remember President Ronald Reagan. And when some tin pot little dictator in Libya decided to bomb one of our nightclub, we decide to go after his entire country with F111. It's usually not a good idea to let the bad guys win,

and evil can never be dead enough. So if we allow Russia to aggress against a country that is leaning toward the West, essentially what we're doing is we are letting evil triumph in the world. And America has always stood for the right of a country to decide their own destiny. The people of Ukraine have decided that they don't want, to live under Russian control, and they want to lean more toward the West.

And the U.S. has always sponsored democracy wherever it is taken root in the world. And supporting Ukraine is a good thing if you like democracy. Okay. You know what? I should have written that down. That's a lot more eloquent than I could say. Okay, let's put ourselves back on the battlefield. Talk to me about the Ukrainian military's incursion into the U.S.

Kursk. First of all, top line, what do you think their actual objective is in doing this and be from a strategic point of view, an operational point of view, you know, where are they going with it? Can they take and hold territory for an indefinite period of time? Or are they viewing this as a short-term effort? I don't believe this is a short-term effort. Now, why they're doing it, that might still be up in the air, but there might be a strategic reason why. But first I kind of thought, all right, so these guys are going to go after the city of Kursk, or they're trying to capture a rail line, or they're trying to capture a nuclear power plant that was fairly close by.

But that never really materialized. And I think what they're trying to do is they're trying to force the death or capture of conscripts. Now, for the longest time, there's kind of been this unwritten rule in Russia, mainly from the upper middle class in Moscow and in St. Petersburg, who've said to Putin, do it. whatever the heck you want, but don't you dare touch our kids. And conscription touches kids. You recall, back during September of 2022, Russia had a general mobilization, some general conscription.

And you notice they ended that really quick. They relied on Wagner. They relied on emptying prisons. They started paying more and more money to people in the eastern half of Russia who were very poor to join the army as contract, as volunteers. And they were fine with that. But by capturing these conscripts, one thing it might show is a weakness in the Russia military that they might not have as many troops as the West would like to think they have. But Russia might have to undergo a general mobilization. And that could see the

downfall of Russia because, or at least the downfall of Putin, because people don't want Russia to touch their kids. It might be a lot harder to get out of the transcript. So I believe, the Ukrainian objective was to force a general mobilization or capture as many conscripts as possible. So that way Russia would have to face the consequences of putting untrained conscripts close to the border. Well, we've seen some reporting that indicates that just recently in the past week or so, that they've moved some, the Russian military has moved some 30,000 troops. they've redeployed to have to deal with this situation in Kursk.

And, yeah, I take your point. There's been a lot of pushback internally, I think, within the Kremlin and from the business side, from the oligarchs in particular, about the idea of a general mobilization. And if you think that, you know, go back to, you know, the Afghanistan occupation days with the old Soviet Union and the impact that eventually the families, the mothers had on the general mood and morale and direction of that war.

So it's possible. Do you think there's also a possibility here that what Zelensky's thinking or what his military's thinking is that, you know, look, let's take and hold some territory. Let's round up as many, you know, POWs as we can. And that gives us leverage for a negotiated settlement. It certainly could. This will end in a negotiated settlement. Nobody is going to drive to Moscow, unless Putin is overthrow.

and someone else is installed who wants peace, which I don't really see that happening. No one's going to drive to Moscow and there's going to be a surrender on a battleship like in World War II. That's not going to happen. And no one's going to be able to drive to Kiev. There's going to be a surrendering key. There will be a negotiated settlement. The question is, do you do it from a position of strength or do it from a position of weakness? And it's certainly possible that Ukraine could have taken this territory because the idea of having Russian territory in Ukrainian hands,

that's just, that's the non-starter for any kind of negotiation. So they will have to give back some territory in order to get first back. Yeah. And I think that there's a concern that the way this all wraps up is that the lines, the territorial lines look very similar to prior to this invasion by Putin. And you end up three years on and people say what was that all about? because Russia still has Crimea, they still have, you know, occupying parts of eastern Ukraine. You know, maybe they claw back some of that territory for Ukraine. But I think the frustration will be immense if that's what they end up doing.

But I agree with you. I don't see an outright victor here. I just see if they don't have a settlement, just years more of this same World War, one like slow movement or advancement on either side. And I don't see that that does the world any good. I mean, I think they've got to negotiate from a position of strength. The Ukrainian military does. The government does. They have to make Putin feel some pain in order to get something that they can then sell to the Ukrainian public. That's just for what it's worth. That falls in the category, Ryan, for what it's worth. Talk to me about what you might have heard about in the

Belgarod region. There's been a couple of incursions up there. Ukrainian military moving on some checkpoints inside Russian territory. Do you think that's a distraction, sort of a head fake, to try to focus more and stretch out the resources that the Russian military has? It's certainly possible. Because one of the possibilities of the Kursk operation was that the Kersk operation was a faint. And so Belgarod could indicate that could be the main effort that Ukraine is trying to reach an objective somewhere there. It could also be a faint. Curse could also be a faint so that Ukraine could go and try to capture Mariupil again, although running up against those minefields and those trenches is not going to be, it's not going to be any easier than it was a year

ago when Ukraine tried their counteroffensive. So yes, that is certainly a possibility that the Belgarod incursion could be a main effort, or it could be another distraction. And ideally, you want to give your adversary dilemma is not problems. The problem has one solution. The dilemma has two or more solutions, each of which are equally bad. So if Ukraine can force Russia to constantly shift troops around, they're using up fuel, they're using up resources. You know, Russian rail cars, I believe only 40% of their rolling stock is active now, because many of their, at least 40% since the start of the war, because many Russian rail cars actually use Western parts. And they don't really have the machine tools to machine new ball bearings.

And there's a name, I think they call them bogeys, the actual wheels that the trains run on. They don't have the machine tools to do that and make replacement parts for stuff in their oil fields and for creating defensive equipment. Russia doesn't really have the machine tools industry. and many of their machine tools were purchased from Germany and from the Netherlands or Denmark, where they make a lot of good machine tools. So this could be an effort to force Russia to start moving around its troops by rail, which increases wear and tear on the rail network,

which makes it a lot harder for Russia to supply troops anywhere. Right. And anytime you've got moving resources, you've got a target, right? You want to create movement on the other side. That gives you opportunity. Okay, you're the weapons expert. Answer me this. Riddle me this, Ryan. In your opinion, the most successful weapons system so far in this war for Ukraine. It's probably hands down the high morse system. You know, one of the amazing parts about the high morse system is that

it's modular and comes in packs. So Russia has a system called Grodd, which is multiple rock multiple rocket launcher. And these missiles have to be loaded manually. They're screwed in manually. They're wired manually. And it takes quite a long time to load. I believe it's 48, I might be incorrect about that, 48 rockets into a launcher.

Now, with something like the high Mars system, you roll down the road, you find a pack that's been dropped off for you. You load that pack into the high Mars launcher. There's already a crane on the back of the high Mars launcher. You load it in in two minutes, you can be ready to fire. your fire mission, then you drop that pack, head to the next cache where you have another

high Mars muscle pack and shoot that. You can keep doing that again and again and again. And high Mars is a fairly inexpensive system. It's a truck with a rocket launcher. We've placed all the packing material inside this this pack. So the high Mars has proven its value as a military weapon system. I believe Poland just recently ordered more high Mars launchers than the US has. That's how Well, that's how Poland sees the Hymar's launcher as a very efficient vehicle. And I think we're going to get a lot more orders for that system than you. Not to put you on the spot, how much to, do we say it's relatively inexpensive? How much are we talking about?

I actually don't recall the number. I want to say about $5 million that I would have to, I'm sure someone's going to fact check me on that. It's a truck. Okay. No one's going to fact check you. You're the expert. Come on. Yeah.

So, well, listen, Ryan, this is, as always, it's very informative, it's entertaining, and we always appreciate your insight and for joining us here on the PDB Situation Report. Thank you very much. You know we'll be calling you again, because I don't think this conflict is going to wrap up anytime soon. But thank you again for your time, man. It'll be a pleasure. Thank you so much.

All right. Coming up, Israel launches its largest operation in the West Bank. Since 7 October, taking down a top commander of Palestinian Islamic jihad, responsible for numerous terror attacks. Retired Israeli Defense Force Brigadier General Doran Gavish will join us to share his insights. You know, every day we hear more about surveillance and how our right to privacy is being infringed upon, and it's absolutely true. It feels like, well, we're living in a world where nothing is truly private anymore.

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All right, let's move our focus over to the Middle East, specifically the West Bank, where Israeli defense forces have launched a sweeping counterterrorism operation. Hundreds of Israeli troops have descended on the city of Janine and surrounded areas, conducting raids in a coordinated effort to disrupt and dismantle terrorist networks. Now as part of this operation, the IDF has detained a large number of militants and engaged in intense gun battles, which the military says are crucial. to preventing imminent attacks on Israeli citizens. In a significant strike, the IDF announced earlier today

that they've neutralized Muhammad Jabber. Jabr is a top or was, let's put it that way in the past tense, a top commander of the Palestinian Islamic jihad's Tokaram Battalion. And he was killed along with four other militants inside a mosque in Tokarum. Jabar had been one of Israel's most wanted men, notorious for his involvement in the planning and execution of deadly attacks. This operation comes just days after Hezbollah launched its largest attack against Israel since the hostilities began on the 7th of October last year.

With the operation in the West Bank, this means Israel is, well, essentially, dealing with a three-front conflict, with Hamas on the west, Hezbollah to the north, and a combination of militant groups to the east. And, of course, with the Iranian regime and its IRGC sitting atop the terrorist network, pulling the strings. Now, to provide more context and analysis on the latest developments, I'm pleased to say we're joined now by retired Brigadier General Doran Gavish, the former commander of Israel's aerial defense force.

General, thank you very much for taking the time with us on the Situation Report. It's very much appreciated. Thank you for having me much. Now I suppose this first question is going to be a little bit general. I'd like to start at the, no pun intended, I'd like to start at the 30,000 foot view here this operation in the West Bank. Can you talk to us about the timing of it? Why now, to what degree from your understanding, will be the duration of this type of operation? Well, Mike, you know, this is unfortunately an ongoing fight against the terror that we can see coming from the West Bank.

And of course, in the last few months starting for 7th of October, we see it from a different I would say from seven different areas around Israel. So I wouldn't say that this is something specifically that started, you know, like two days ago, and it's going to be ended tomorrow. And unfortunately, this is a continuous fight against the terror that we see coming from the West Bank. And unfortunately, you know, a few days ago there was terrorists that by, by, accident exploded himself in Tel Aviv. So imagine yourself that these terrorists that exactly came from the West Bank would be successful in his plan. So this is an ongoing fight against

terrorism trying to stop them before launching their attacks and strikes and terrorizing basically Israel inside our country. You know, Mike, just maybe to give you a some feeling of what we are talking about. The distance between the West Bank and Tel Aviv, it's half an hour of driving. When there is traffic, one hour. That's it. So it is very, very close, and we must be engaged with those terrorists before in our way.

Are you concerned about... And maybe I'm using the wrong terminology, but are you concerned about opening up another phase of conflict at this point when you're still, when you obviously still dealing with Gaza, you're still dealing with the situation with Hezbollah to the north, and now to the east over here in the West Bank? Does that concern you in terms of available resources for carrying on this fight? Well, no doubts, Mike, you know, with your background, you know, that it is a quite a challenging when you have to fight against everyone against you, around you in a way.

But unfortunately, you know, we, it's not that we are choosing to do it because we believe that this is the right time and we were waiting. Unfortunately, the circumstances are there and we have to react to them. And I'm sure that you've talked about it on your show, but today, Israel is the in a very challenging situation because we have the fight in Gaza and then with the Hezbollah

in the north in Lebanon and we see projectors which are coming from Syria others are coming from Iraq we saw 300 of them coming from Iran on the night between the 13 and 14 of April of course Iran is there

unfortunately the basic of everything that we see here everything starts and ends in Iran and this is really the destabilizer of our region and if I would continue what I've just mentioned before we also saw the Houth is

from the coming from the east also west east south east sorry and and the west bank so seven different areas that we need to operate in you're right that you as a military you will prefer

to focus this is one of the reasons that Israel is now trying to get to the point that we would finish in a way, at least in some point, in some extent what is being done in the Gaza Spring, in order to first bringing back the hostages, but also to allow ourselves to deal with other areas. In the West Bank, General, what group is the, for our viewers, what group is the primary threat at this point? Is it Hamas?

Is it Islamic Shihad? Is it a mix of elements that you're dealing with in the West Bank? It's mixed of element, as you just said, but it's mainly the Hamas, which is challenging. The Hamas is trying to routine himself in the West Bank, same as he did in the Gaza's repair. We have to remember that the Hamas, you know, they are there from 2006, 2007, before we had the Palestinian notoriety that were leading the Gaza Strip. And of course, we all know what happened with the Gaza Strip. You know, when I think about it, I always, when I talk with my friend around the world,

I said, you know, when I go back to this embankment of 2007, I remember I was very optimistic. I said, you know, here we go. We have now a real opportunity that the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian The Gaza Strip is there, and here we go, Singapore would be raising out of the Gaza Strip. And unfortunately, we found ourselves with Hamasthan, not exactly Singapore. So this is the main concern also for the West Bank. Because if the Hamas, we take over the West Bank, then it would be super challenging for Israel. So Islamic jihad is also very strong on the West Bank.

they are even more, I would say, vicious than the Hamas. But all of them, unfortunately, are very cool enemies. And we have to deal with them. When you're talking about Hamas, obviously in Gaza, you know, they're the ruling party, right? They run the show. It's their turf. In the West Bank, to what degree do you assess that Hamas, you know, is at odds with the Palestinian authority, that they, you know, is there coordination? Are they operating at odds with what the

Palestinian Authority would prefer to see happening? Talk to us about that if you could. I think that, you know, we have, we have to clarify that also for the Palestinian Authority, the Hamas, it is the first opposition. And again, if we go back to what happened in 2007 and then in nine in the West, in the Gaza's script, we have to remember that once the Hamas took over, they killed tens of Palestinians official in a very brutally way. So the Hamas is not only in opposition. It is really someone who is very cruel, even toward the Palestinians themselves. So from the Palestinian Authority point of view, they see the Hamas as a challenge. They would prefer the Hamas not to be there, and they would do everything they can also to diminish the presence of the Hamas.

But unfortunately, the Palestinian Authority is not strong enough, and this is why Israel is, you know, we have to take care of ourselves and sometimes to be in the initiative. Okay. I realize this question that I'm about to ask you is probably it falls in the category of almost impossible to, to, explain, but to what degree does Hamas maintain the support? I don't mean through, through, you know, threats or intimidation, but to what degree do they have the support of the Palestinian people, whether it's in Gaza or the West Bank? You know, it is very interesting question, Mike, because two days ago there were some intelligence that was gathering in the Gaza Strip showed that the Hamas was basically twisting all the pods. And there is a pause that were done by a non-Palestinian, let's say,

agency that we all were looking at it. And what we saw from the intelligence is that the number that was the real number was that only 35% of the Palestinians are supporting the Famas in the Gaza spread, but they twisted the number to 70%. So it is very, very hard, really, to know what exactly is going on there. If we would believe the new report that just came two days ago, maybe this is the situation. I hope so, by the way, because I would like to believe that, you know,

the people, the Palestinians who live in the Gaza Sprit, they understand that they could live peacefully if they would want it to. But so once again, it's very hard to know. You know, we're not talking about the democracies, very hard to believe on those ports that are being done for this, from this part or from the other part. So the last number before, by the way, was 70%. in favor of what the Hamas was doing, also on the West Bank.

So 70% of the people over there were supporting the onslaught of 7th of October. Very challenging situation, but this is unfortunately what we have to deal with. Yeah. General, if you could stay with us, we have to take a quick break. I apologize for that, but we do have some most excellent sponsors. And so we'll address that, but we'll be back with General and more on the PDB Situation Report. Stand by. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I'm going to tell you something that might seem obvious.

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Welcome back to the Situation Report. I'm joined once again by retired Brigadier General Doran Gavish. General, we were talking about the West Bank and about the operation there that's kicked off. Can you talk briefly about the Iranian regime's influence and over the efforts to get, I mean, I don't know whether this is going too far off topic, but the smuggling of weapons into the West Bank, I think it would be important for our viewers to understand, because I've talked talked about this in the past, oh, the Iranian regime sits over the top of all of this. And ultimately, the idea of having some lasting long-term peace in the region is a bit nonsensical

as long as the Iranian regime in the IRGC in its current form remain in place with their stated objective of destroying Israel. But there has been a fairly long-term effort, it seems, by the Iranian regime to smuggle weapons into the West Bank. I was hoping you could talk about that just a bit. Well, again, you're raising a very important and important point. This is exactly what we are seeing, and this is exactly what we're trying to fight against. The Iranian regime are trying to do it continuously.

We saw it in the last month or two years that those efforts are even graduating. They are trying to do it through the operatives in Syria and then in Lebanon. By the way, there was Israeli strike, but one of the leaders of this operation last week. So this is exactly what we are trying to do. We are trying to stop this smuggling while it is on his way. We are trying to fight against the operative, which are organizing, this effort done by the Iranians, but this, but it is there. This is part of, and once again, you've said that you talked about it. This is part of their agenda. The Iranians are working

through the proxies. We talked about the seven different arenas, and Iran is in all of them. By the way, now they are also trying to influence Sudan and others in Africa. So the doctrine and the idea of smuggling and trying to boost the terrorism all around. This is something that is being done continuously. And of course, also to the West thing. How would you assess, I'm going to switch topics just slightly here. How would you assess Israel's intelligence capabilities? And by this, I'm somewhat obliquely referring to recent operations where we've seen some very

significant terminations of key personnel in various places. But could you give me a brief assessment from your perspective of Israeli intelligence capabilities? Well, Mike, you know, we can't ignore the 7th of October. So this is unfortunately the starting point when we talk about when we are now and unfortunately on the 7th of October we felt and we felt hard and this was a strategic failure. So if we are for a moment putting this aside and now we talk about the intelligence that we see during this work starting, let's say from the 8th of October.

By the way, a lot of you was gathered also before of it, but from the 8th of October, I think that the performance of the intelligence is quite impressive one. Of course, if we're looking at it from a military point of view, we also have to remember that we have a CERCOM around us, very close cooperation with the CERNCOM forces, also intelligence, it's part of it. So if we're looking on some of the significant effort, I would mention two of them. One of them, the night of the 13 and 14th of April, that from intelligence point of view, we knew basically that it's going to come.

We knew where it is coming from and where it is going to, and we knew to prepare ourselves. So it was based on very sufficient and effective intelligence. And also this week, you know, the beginning of this week in Lebanon, the Lebanese, the Hezbollah, sorry, they had the, well, there are also Lebanese, the Hezbollah, they were planning to shoot a vast number of missiles toward Israel, missiles, U.S. U.Vs, and the rockets, and we managed to counter it basically one hour before it happened. this is also a very strong intelligence that was part of it. So from the intelligence point of view,

I think that we see some impressive data that is coming, and also in the tactic level, because, and I can give you an example from the Air Force efforts, for example. Unfortunately, we have to fight also, and to use our Air Force, although those are very very, very dense areas, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank. And in order to avoid as much as you can collateral damage, you need a very, very accurate intelligence.

And this is happening also on the tactic level. So it is coming from ground intelligence. It's coming from air intelligence, gathering intelligence from the air, human, SIGG and all those. And once again, our ability to be quite successful on this and to be precise as much as we can, this is part of a very significant and effective intelligence. How would you assess the effectiveness of the Iron Dome system so far? Well, you know, first of all, allow me being the previous, but a commander in the past of the Air and Missile Defense,

I always remind everyone that they're behind the system. We have the warriors, men and women, which are operating the system. And so the Iron Dome is the system itself, but basically really the ones that are operating are doing quite significant and amazing joke. With the Iron Dorn, I would come back to it in might, but I would like to also clarify that when we're talking about the defense of Israel, that it is not against rockets and missiles, it is not only about the iron dome.

It's a concept of what we call a multi-tier defense. It's the iron dome on the lower tier, but it is the David's link for a bit longer projectiles and the arrow two and the arrow three for a very long projectiles. We saw the arrow two and order three being very effective against those projectiles and missiles that were shot toward Israel from Dhoutis and from from Iran. We talked about basically 98% of success rate, which is an amazing number.

And also the interception rates of the Iron Dome when it comes to shooting against, to intercept rockets and missiles, the number is very significant. We're talking about thousands and thousands of intersections. What we have also to remind our viewers that we intercept only those that are going toward our city. If a rocket is going or projectile is going toward what is called an open area, then we let it go. This is our way not to fight the numbers. We fight only against the direct threats. The other thing with regard to the Iron Dome is that the evolution of this system with the time,

allowed us to use it also against the U.S. And this is also something that we've seen in the last war or in the world that is being conducted now. Again, hundreds of interceptions, although we also have to say that it is a challenging threat when it comes to the very short ranges, mainly in the northern part of Israel, although there is a good success rate,

But unfortunately, the Hezbollah is still being able to penetrate with some of those project as the UAVs. And for this, I would mention, I hope to be very short here, but that the doctrine is not only about the defense. The doctrine to fight rockets and missiles starts. It has four main pillars. One of them is the attack. You're doing as much as you can in order to prevent it to being shot, told you. the second one is alert. You want to provide the alert to the military

and to the civilian in your area in order for them to guard themselves and to go to the shelters. The other one is the active defense that is being done by the Ireland on mainly fighters, together with our airplanes and chopper. And once again, the passive defense,

meaning that people, if they go to the shelter, they would be safe. So all of those to go, together bring us to a point that although there were some projectors that fell into Israel, the number of casualties, although there are casualties, and each one of them is the whole world, the number of casualties is low. Well, with the time that we've got remaining, I'm probably going to ask you a couple of questions that are also difficult to answer, kind of a soft science.

But are you hearing anything related to the negotiations that are taking place related to the situation in Gaza, that gives you hope that there may be some in the near-term ability to get the hostages back. Well, you know, I don't know if there is really someone other than those that are really dealing with the negotiation who knows what exactly is happening. But on the high level, I could say that looking from the Israeli interests, Israel, when it comes to the Gaza street, Israel defined two main goals. One of them was to bring back the hostages, and the other one was, of course, with regard to the Hamas.

So if we're looking to the hostages, there are still 107 hostages that are there. And unfortunately, time is not helping them. We saw the last hostage, his name is Farhan, a Bedouin, a Bedouin from the south part of Israel. who came back, was released, not released. It was taking back our soldiers two days ago, and you could see that he was in a batch very, very thin. And unfortunately, the other hostage that was with him died, basically because of his conditions. So we don't have too much time in order to gain this goal,

and this is a very important goal. You see that even personally, I'm going with this insignia, that we are supporting the hostages. So this is the one goal. The other goal, we have to remember that out of the 24 battalions that Hamas had, the 22 of them, were dismantled. And we could say that looking on the situation, Israel is basically on the control.

There is still this part of the Philadelphia line, which is very important because this is basically the airs of the Hamas and Israel, of course, is very concerned with it. But in general, the Israeli interest is to close this area in the south, in order, and if we're going back to the beginning of our conversation, in order really to be able to vacant itself to other arenas, because we didn't solve yet the situation in the northern part of Israel. We have to remember that 70,000 Israel is our state.

still refugees in the own country. The northern part of Israel is closed, basically. Also, to look toward the north part of Israel, and we remember that 70,000 Israel is, you know, they're not there anymore. There are refugees in the home country, and this is something that Israel has to take care of. If we want to be optimistic,

maybe what would start in the Gaza strip, would bring some diplomatic efforts that would be successful, if also in the northern part of Israel. I'm not sure that this is my assessment, but we hope so. For sure, Israel would have to prepare itself to the northern arena

because we cannot stay with Hezbollah very close to our border. Yeah. General, I've got several more questions to throw in your direction, but we are unfortunately out of time. I do hope that you be willing to maybe come back on the Situation Report at some point in the not too distant future, because it's been an absolute pleasure speaking with you. General Doran Gavish, we really appreciate your time and your expertise, and thank you very much for joining us here on the Situation Report. I hope to see you again soon. Thank you, Mike. And I really think that it is very important,

you know, show like yours allows to talk about the situation much more in depth and we see in other places. And the main misconceptions that are toward what is happening here are very frustrating. So thank you for taking your time and looking at it in depth. I'll see you again soon. Thank you very much again, General. All right. I like the fact that the general use the word optimistic. I hope there's some optimism in that region.

but it's hard sometimes to find it. That's all the time we have for the PDB situation report. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out at PDB at thefirsttv.com. Look, the entire PDB team always looks forward to digging into the mailbag to read through your emails and your postcards and your telegrams. To listen to the podcast of the show, ad free, well, it's very simple. Become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. I told you it was simple.

right? And remember, new episodes of the PDB Situation Report, well, they air every Friday at 10 p.m. on the first TV. And of course, on all podcast platforms and the juggernaut that is our YouTube channel, please check that out. It's at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. And until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.