The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | December 13th, 2025: Inside Japan’s Biggest Military Shift Since World War Two & Iran’s Student Uprising

Episode Date: December 13, 2025

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: Japan’s largest military buildup since World War Two is now underway. New reporting reveals a sweeping expansion of missile sites, radar systems, and a major United States–Japan F-35 base across strategic islands near Taiwan. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery joins us to break down what’s happening and why it matters. Iran’s students are stepping into a dangerous spotlight as unrest builds across the country. Iranian-American scholar and human rights advocate Dr. Ramesh Sepehrrad joins us with insight into what this moment means for Iran’s future—and the risks these young protesters are facing. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Nobl Travel: Protect your gear and travel smarter—NOBL’s zipper-free carry-on is up to 58% off at https://NOBLTravel.com Goldbelly: Discover iconic meals from legendary restaurants delivered nationwide with Goldbelly—get 20% off your first order at https://Goldbelly.com using promo code PDB. Tax Relief Advocates: End your tax nightmare today by visiting us online at https://TRA.com/podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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your precise probiotic at a Walmart near you. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Welcome to the PDP Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Japan's largest military build-ups since World War II is now underway.

New reporting shows a sweeping expansion of missile sites, radar systems, and a major U.S.-Japan F-35 base across islands near Taiwan. Retired River Admiral Mark Montgomery joins us for more on those developments. Later in the show, Iran's students are stepping into a dangerous spotlight as unrest builds across the country. We'll be joined by Iranian-American scholar and human rights advocate Dr. Ramesh Separat for more on that. But first, today's situation reports spotlight. Japan is undertaking its largest military build-up since World War II, and the scale is far bigger than what we reported just last month. Back then, we reported that Tokyo was preparing to place

a surface-to-air missile unit on Yonaguni. That's a tiny island just 68 miles from Taiwan. Now, new reporting shows a sweeping transformation across the entire Ryukul chain. That's a long arc of islands running from Japan's main homeland down toward Taiwan. Tokyo is adding missile batteries, radar sites, electronic warfare units, and ammunition depots, while also building a massive new U.S.-Japan F-35 training base on Magashima. So, you ask, what does this massive military build-up mean for the region and the growing tensions between China and Japan? Joining us to break this down is retired rear-admiral Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the Foundation

for the Defense of Democracy. Sir, thank you very much for coming back on the situation. report. Thank you for having me, Mike. Let's take a look at this situation. Are we about to watch a war break out between China and Japan? No, but China's definitely trying to flex that they're a big country and Japan's a medium-sized country and I try to hold them accountable. Look, China's worry, China worries about can we take Taiwan, coerced Taiwan into rejoining us on their own. One of the things they know makes it harder is if allies and partners of Taiwan demonstrate a willingness to fight alongside Taiwan. So that's why they criticize the United States every time we do an arm

seal to Taiwan. They criticize us every time we have a major exercise with the Taiwan forces, which isn't frequent. Similarly, the Japanese prime minister said out loud what many Japanese senior leader since Prime Minister Abe left office, you know, some five years, six years ago, she said out loud what they all said in private, which is that a Chinese attack on Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of Japan. Explain to our viewers, if you could, what's the thinking behind that? Why are they, why do they view it that way? I think the Japanese understand that if China were to successfully reintegrate Taiwan, coercively. In other words, there was a failure of the United States to respond under the Taiwan

Relations Act, or we responded too late, or we had initial casualties and we backed off, whatever the reason, if there was some kind of Chinese success, the rest of Northeast, China would then look at Japan and Korea as future vassal states. You know, they would extend their umbrella of, you know, their perceived hegemonic or, you know, regional, power umbrella to include those two countries. Right now, they clearly fall under the U.S. security umbrella with actual treaties between us in Japan and between us in Korea that we would defend you against any attack. And their economic security, they align with their national security. So with the United States, both countries have very aggressive direct investment and trade policies

towards the United States. In other words, to make sure they keep us entangled with them. And President Trump has amplified that with his trade negotiations, really pushing foreign direct investment by those two countries, Japan and Korea, in the United States. So the whole idea is we're aggressively entangled. But if the security arrangement falls apart, because we're no longer reliable, credible ally, because we allow Taiwan to fall. So that's how Japan looks at it. Like, Taiwan is the kind of canary in the coal mine. If it goes down, we're going to have to come to grips with a with a regional hegemonic Chinese power. Our agreement with Taiwan is not the same as our agreements with Japan and South Korea. And so it seems like, you know, this is a problem from

the start. And I realize I'm about to ask a highly speculative question, but If it's an aggressive move on Taiwan, what do you imagine a U.S. administration, whether it's this one next, whichever, it doesn't matter, I suppose, but what would the U.S. administration response be? That's the $64,000 question. And I'll tell you, the president just put a national security strategy out, and it kind of had a good news, bad news kind of situation, you know, for Taiwan. The good news was it very clearly stated in print, something we don't normally do. that we will not allow China to coerce Taiwan into a different solution, into some kind of integration, and that the United States will maintain sufficient military power to make sure that doesn't happen. That's the good news. That's the good times. The worst of times part of the national security strategy was the kind of removal of China being listed as a security adversary.

I think the Treasury Secretary had a lot to do with that. And you can even see it as you read the document. There's clearly like, who are they talking about here? I think they're talking about China, but the word China's been removed. And then in an area I look at a lot, cybersecurity, China has been running this massive cybersecurity effort against us called Volt Typhoon, preparing the battlefield in our country and our country and our global structures. And we don't even mention it in a 33-page document about threats to the United States.

So I say Taiwan is nervous. You know, I have a son over there on a U.S. Navy ship, you know, and I talk with him, you know, he and his shipmates expect that they'll be part of a crisis or war that breaks out there because that's how our Department of Defense views the Taiwan Relations Act. So we're training and building a military to be ready to respond. But, you know, you kind of hit it in your question. Will the president make the decision to do it? and that is a uniquely presidential decision. What do you think? You've got a lot of experience, sir.

What do you think? Look, Joe Biden four times said, I'll fight for Taiwan, and four times his national security advisor the next morning, you did not hear him say that. You know, we're back to, you know, what they call it strategic ambiguity, you know, that maybe we will, maybe we won't. I think President Trump practices something different to strategic ambiguity. He practices, you know, he practices more a form of strategic unpredictability.

You don't know what he's going to do. And I think in doing so, he kind of preserves some deterrence. Would he really pull the trigger? Only if Taiwan were doing really well. Because what we learned in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran is three or four days into it. Israel was doing very well. The president's right next to Dad Yahu with a thumbs up. And seven days later, we were doing something we never ever thought we'd do,

dropping massive ordinance penetrators on the Ford Dow nuclear enterprise. So from my view, it's not known. But it's not strategic ambiguity. It's more strategic unpredictability with the president that is intentionally unpredictable. I think he revels in it. So it'd be anyone who tells you I know the answer to that. And he's not named Donald Trump, senior. It's probably don't know what he's talking about.

Yeah, I'm 100% in agreement with that. Look, if I was Xi Jinping, I would just, you know, ride this one out, meaning this administration. Because under the theory that whatever comes next, you know, you could put money on it and say, okay, it's likely to be a change just the way our politics work here. And the Chinese regime and their intel operators spent a lot of time gaming out what happens in U.S. politics because it impacts their planning, you could argue that, you know, the window, you know, opens when Trump leaves office because for that very reason that you stated, he's unpredictable. Yeah.

100% I think like the cross-straight invasion, kind of the really big war, what we call the most dangerous scenario, for sure that's in the future. What I worry about is there's another kind of game tried to play called the most likely scenario, which is cyber-enabled economic warfare where they use cyber tools, disinformation, economic tools, diplomatic tools, military faints, not attacks, to pressure the Taiwan society and try to break societal resilience in Taiwan. And they had not, and previously had not done a great job building that up. They're working really hard on it now. We're trying to help them. by the way, we're vulnerable to this.

That kind of attack, I think you're, I'm going to give you almost the same time frame. Late 2027, early 2028, when Taiwan's having its next election to try to increase the pressure to drive to ensure that the current president who China does not like Chinate, to ensure that President Light Chintay does not win a second term. I would move up that time frame, sir, and I'd like to pick up on this after the break, But I would argue that phase of the war or however we want to describe it, that type of war is already underway. And the Chinese regime is engaged in that war that you describe already. Perhaps we just don't, you know, or the White House just doesn't see it.

I'm not sure. But, sir, if you could stay right where you are, we do need to take a quick break. And then we'll be back with more from Adam Montgomery right here on the Situation Report. please stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, PDB listeners know that I'm constantly traveling. So, I guess I've become a bit of an expert on airports and luggage. And I want to tell you about a great company out there designing and selling incredible luggage. It's Noble Travel. That's N-O-B-L, noble travel. Okay, let me give you a scenario. Picture this, if you will. You're in the line at airport security. There's a happy place, isn't it? You got a cup of coffee in your hands,

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Offer valid April 16th through May 3, 2006. Exclusions apply for licenses. See Home Depot.com slash license numbers. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is retired rear admiral Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Sir, thank you very much for sticking around. We started off our conversation earlier by highlighting the tensions that have been building between China and Japan. Could you talk a bit about Japan's build-up, what they're doing?

doing currently that has gotten the Chinese regime so riled up. Yeah, you know, there's a big change going on. After the Russian, you know, illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japan kind of had a wake-up call that, hey, authoritarian might actually do what they say and they might put people at risk. And in addition to the Taiwan issue and some issues in the South China Sea that Japan is interested in, Japan and China have a significant disagreement over a set of islands called the Sankaku Islands, that Japan holds and China claims. And China's basic premises, if we've ever held anything and have a claim to it, we're taking it back between now and 2049. So, but all of a sudden, Japan got this

wake-up call. Now, historically, by their constitution, they only spent 1% of gross domestic product on defense. Now, they hit it. They really spent about 1.5%. I won't get into all of it, but they suppressed it to have a good defense. And I would tell you, outside of Israel, Japan, had the most effective defense spending of any of our allies and partners, and certainly much more effective than anyone in Europe or the United States. What they got previously for about $45 to $50 billion a year was fantastic. Now, what's happening now is they're cranking up their defense spending. They just announced that next year, the next years will be, they'll hit 2% of GDP with $60 billion and further increases over the next four years. And they're headed up to that, I think eventually

that, you know, that NATO standard of 3.5%. And in addition, they definitely spend the 1.5% on critical infrastructure associated with like military mobility, rail systems, aviation system, court systems. So they're coming up. And so here's the most efficient country in the world outside of Israel, beginning to really expend more money on equipment. That's got China a little nervous because they also have geographic proximity, obviously. their weapons are 100% in theater all the time. They don't leave. Whereas, you know, with the United States,

we may spend $900 billion, but we keep 90% of our weapons outside of the Western Pacific at any one time. We only keep about 10% of our military forward deployed in the Western Pacific for the Asia Pacific crises, either Ford stationed or Ford deployed. So that 50, that 50 billion, go to 60 billion, go to 70 billion, go to 80 billion, it's going to leave a mark on Chinese ability to conduct military operations. So that's another reason they have beat with Japan's actions over the last year and a half. That's really interesting. I think I guess it speaks in part to what you talked about earlier where China gets concerned anytime allies do anything that indicates security for Taiwan or alliance with Taiwan, which this certainly implies because they're tying that defense spending, it seems, into their concerns that Taiwan may be in conflict at some point here in the near future.

So, and I suppose if you tie that in with, as you mentioned, the prime minister's comments that she made talking about an existential threat if China takes Taiwan in an aggressive manner, that all starts to make sense. But the regime, the Chinese regime, certainly under Xi Jinping in the foreign ministry, they've come out swinging, right? I mean, I believe they even made a nuclear threat to Japan. And they personal comments about ringing her by her neck and things like that, you know, very, you know, just unprofessional. It's how China is. China is a bully. And when they see a country is smaller than them, and they see everyone is swallower than them except the United States, they bully them. That is their MO.

It's been their MO for over a decade now. And so I expected to continue. And they should be nervous, by the way. I should have said, what Japan is buying with this is F-35, fifth-generation aircraft, the refueling aircraft that will help U.S. and Japanese aircraft hit out operations, long-range strike missiles, tomahawks, several hundred of them, you know, getting delivered soon, their own indigenous, locally produced strike weapons, things that can hit China. So, you know, this is all a strong deterred signal from Japan. Don't mess with us. Don't mess with the United States and don't mess with Taiwan.

And I think that's a good strong signal for them to be sending because it amplifies our signal because of their geographic proximity. And it seems like it's not, I mean, obviously they're allocating in their budget, but it's more than theoretical at this point. It seems like it's operational. They're actually placing missile batteries in that archipelago that stretches all the way down in Japan's island. chain. I understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, are they building an air base on one of those

islands, four F-35s? They're moving, they're building more and more military infrastructure farther and farther south along the Ryukus, that southern island chain that extends towards China. Clearly, only one, it really extends towards Taiwan, but then China. Only one adversary. That's not about North Korea. That's not about Russia. That's about China. And, And the, you know, the Japanese are, you know, do a great job hosting us as well. You know, they host our, they pay for our Navy Air Force and Army to operate out of their country. They and the Koreans both do what's called post-nation payments. But they take advantage of that, too.

They integrate and exercise with us. And at this point in time, the most integrated navies in the world are the U.S. Navy and the Japanese Navy. Next is probably the U.S. and the British and the U.S. and the Australian. The Japanese are driven themselves up there. The Air Forces, I still think a couple of, you know, the U.K. Air Force is probably still tighter with us in the Canadian Air Force. But their Air Force is working the way up the chain. In every military area, they're becoming, they've moved from deconflicted to coordinated to integrated. So, and that's important because when you're confronting someone like China, you want your two, which Japan's two to equal five. You know, you want it to amplify each other and enable each other. And that's, you're That's what we're getting. And boy, do they buy a ton of American stuff. You know, they spend a lot of that defense budget in the United States buying ages ships, F-35s, air-to-air weapons, all the stuff, expensive stuff that's best in the world. Shifting gear is just a little bit. How would you describe and how concerned are you about the China-Russia relationship? This is one of the

the untold stories of the Russia-Ukraine war. So when you think about the Russian-Ukraine war, we all say, well, they're fighting, you know, Ukraine's fighting four countries, North Korea, Iran, and China. The North Korea one, everyone saw like 10,000 troops were in the curse campaign, and they've given a ton of munitions. Iran gave them those shiki drones, and there's now a drone factory, it's called Girond now, but in Russia, with that Iranian drone being fired three, three, four hundred a night into Kiev and other areas. But the real supporter of Russia has been China. They have backstopped the Russian economy, increased trade, imports and exports, more than 30 percent, increased investment. And they've provided the microelectronics to build more

trues, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles. So they've helped them operationally. They've helped them strategically. And now here's the kicker. What's Russia done back for China? And we've heard two rumors. The first is they help them with submarine quieting technology. And I got to tell you, that hurts the U.S. because we are the quietest maybe in the world. Our submarines are agreed by everyone to be the true fifth generation submarines up there. No one's close. But the Russians are probably the next closest, right? After us, it drops out of the Russians. The Chinese were very noisy. And if they can be made quieter by Russia technology, that would hurt. And the second thing they've given them is the technology for airborne assaults with helicopters, both the equipment and the

training to do it. That's part of that cross-strait invasion. It's not just ships coming across the strait. It's an airborne assault as well. So from my perspective, those are two pretty big technological quid-brook woes back to China. If true, these are both rumor. But if true, this would be a significant issue that makes it more challenging for Taiwan. or the United States to fight China. Yeah, it is, I mean, there's all sorts of reporting that's been out there talking about, you know, how a cross-straight invasion would occur and, you know, how the Chinese military would, you know, pull into service sort of their civilian fleet, their barges, their ferries.

It's a fascinating situation, you know, to try to game out. something else that I find very interesting, and it's not really a question, I'm just kind of looking for a comment, but the Chinese, they're in a way, you have to, and I don't want to say admire, but they always do what's in their best interests, right, and they're shameless about it. Whatever is in their best interest. I mean, every nation theoretically does that. The U.S. apologizes constantly because we're doing something in the U.S. best interest. But the Chinese are selling some of the key components for drones. They make some of the blades and some of the technology within the drones that are used in the Ukraine conflict, and they're selling them to both sides, right? So both

Ukraine and Russia purchased these components from China. And now there's, this is interesting, we're covering this on the PDB. I'm just throwing this out there to show, I guess, how bizarre the world is. But there's lawsuits now taking place down in Texas against some U.S. chip manufacturers because U.S. chips are, they have been found for the past couple of years in Russian missile remnants and drones. And so despite the sanctions over the past couple of years, the Russian military is still finding a way to get their hands on on U.S. components to include in their gear. Again, not a question, just a conversation. You're right on all those points, though. I'll tell you. In fact, I don't know if you remember, but the very beginning of

the war, one of the things the Russians did when they seized land, was take all the modern dishwashers and washing machines so they could grab the microelectronics out of them because there was some similarity between those, some of the chips and those, and the chips that were in weapons systems. So the propensity for dual-use technology in this world is pretty big. And I will say, I think China does intentionally provide drones to the Ukrainians. And Ukrainian drones cause 82% of Russian cats. So, and I think they allow them, they say there's a ban, but they're clearly showing up. I spent a lot of time in Ukraine with their forces.

And there's a lot of, a number of their drones still have Chinese, significant numbers of Chinese parts in it. I think the Chinese kind of do it to bleed the Russians a little. I mean, this war is going great for them. America is distracted. Europe is distracted and breaking apart and Russia's bleeding out. Who's the winner? China. Yeah, it's a great point. And it doesn't get brought up often enough. Look, I really appreciate you taking the time. I know you've been traveling and yet you've carved out a bit of time to join us here on the Situation Report. Admiral Mark Montgomery, as always, thank you very much for joining us today, sharing your insights. I look forward to the next conversation. Thanks for having me. It was a great conversation. All right. Coming up next, Iran's campuses are becoming a pressure point for a regime all

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Not available with other offers. See dealer for full details. Offer ends May 31st, 2026. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. We've been tracking a very combustible situation inside Iran. It's a mix of economic strain, political unrest, and even a massive water shortage in Tehran that has left the Islamic regime on edge.

One piece of the story that we want to highlight is the rule of Iran's students, the youth movement. Students are once again on the front lines, protesting even as the regime grows more anxious, and more violent. Now, speaking out in Tehran today, of course, can mean arrest, torture, disappearance, or death. Yet they continue. Their resistance has become one of the clearest sides that Iran's youth are awakening, and the regime, well, they're acting like they know it. Joining us now as chair of the advisory board, the Organization of Iranian-American Communities,

Dr. Ramesh Srebberod. She's a leading Iranian-American scholar, author, and human rights advocate. Thank you very much for taking the time to join us here on the Situation Report. It's a pleasure to be with you. Thanks for having me. Of course. Well, let's start this. A lot of questions here to toss your way, but let's start with a very sort of general one, if we could. Describe the extent of the descent that you're currently seeing. And by that, not just within the student and the youth movement, but elsewhere within Iran at the present time. Yes, I think the movement inside Iran movement for a free Iran has really made the question

and has a very clear and a core message for the international community that Iran is no longer a question of reform or diplomacy, but it is a question of who really holds the legitimate power, which is the people of Iran. If you look at the waves of nationwide uprising, since 2017, there's been a number of massive uprising across Iran. And what's really in common among all of these uprisings and protests is calling to end the regime with the slogans of down to the supreme leader, al-Qaumbenei, and call for freedom, call for democracy and called for a free and a republic Iran where it is no longer a question

of if we want to change Iran is going to be a restoration back to a monarchy, but moving forward where the people of Iran hold that power going forward. So obviously the regime has not been sitting idle. They have been executing people. They have been arresting people, trying to really resort back to all of the free factors. and the intimidation tactics, but they have not been able to really disempowered this growing movement for change. And, you know, obviously youth and women

have a very critical and a central role to this change, but what's really emerging over the past several years is this notion of the network of resistance units. And it is a network that is coordinated, that is orchestrating efforts, that is organized and is very clear on why they target the regime and they have a tremendous support from the public. So I think Iran's free Iran movement has really evolved to a point with clarity, with a clear network and also a message for the world that when we're thinking

about a change in Iran, Iranian people are not looking for a foreign military intervention. They are not looking for funding or weapons or troops on the ground. And they're not looking for a puppet regime that can be imported from an external power. But what they have instead is an organized uprising. What they have instead is a resistance unit network inside Iran with a clear and a time-bound transition plan with the broader Exalt Coalition of the National Council of Iran. But now with the grip on power that the Mullahs and the IRGC have demonstrated over the years, in your estimation, and I realize this is a tough question because obviously you're subjective. I mean, anybody who wants a free Iran and what's best for the citizens of Iran is going to be subjective. But to what degree can something internal, right, without any external impact or assistance or assistance? influence, to what degree can the dissent within Iran result in a change in government? Because

I got to tell you, the Mollos and the IRGC have shown an amazing ability to avoid that problem. Yes, and I think you're absolutely right. IRGC is a terrorist organization, and they provide funding and training and guidance to the proxy groups in the region. But if you look at the events across the Middle East, you can really see the indicators of the weakening of power and even the influence of IRGC across the board. Obviously, the events in the region has and the 12-day war that took place against the regime and its player during summer has had its impact. But what I argue for is the real impact, the real force that would bring this regime down and bring about democracy and freedom in Iran

is in the hand of the Iranian people. And I think that's what we really have to pay attention to. The fact of the matter is that Iran's supreme leader, Ali Fomini, is extremely weak. He is not able to get himself a successor in place. He is not able to really rally the troops, even internally. If you think about it since the 12-day war, hominy has not been public. He's still on the ground. And the question is, what is he afraid of? It's not because he's afraid of the foreign war.

It's because he's afraid of the people. He understands where the movement and where the momentum of change, the real change is, is not in the missiles that's going to target regimes official, but it is in the hands of the Iranian people. So on the other hand, I'm sorry for interrupting you, doctor. I apologize, but you've said some very interesting things here. And I don't want to, well, I guess I do want to play devil's advocate here because, you know, there's been a fairly long history ever since the existence of the current regime of anticipation or of hope

that there will be an internal uprising, right? That's, I agree with you, 100%. That's the way for things to change there. It's for the people to take that up into their own hands. Let me back off of that just for a second and ask you if you can. Can you quantify what causes, this is going to be a very odd, simplistic question, but what causes the most dissent? Is it the economy?

Is it the lack of freedoms? What has resonated the most with, let's look at the youths first. What's resonating most with them? I think the core point of a conflict with the regime in Tehran between the people and the regime in power is the issue of freedom. The issue of freedom has been persistent conflict between this regime and the public. If you look at during the 1980s, the Iranian regime really thought through mass execution, a mass arrest, and trying to really push the dissent and silence the dissent. But the movement continued.

If you look at the National Council of Resistance every on, even though they move to exile, but they continue to expose the regime, they continue to use all at their power within inside the country and their network through their network to raise awareness for freedom and democracy. Then you fast forward in the 1990s, regime resorted to terrorist activities, even assassinations abroad, and then to where we are since 2000. So regime has faced several crises. One crisis is the crisis of legitimacy because this is not a regime that is able to meet the demand of its citizen, which is really given the rights and the freedoms to the Iranian people. Two is they're also facing an economic crisis. They're facing environmental crises. But I think what really would be the Achilles Hill for this regime is the political legitimacy. They lack political legitimacy when people go to the streets, time and time.

time again, and it's not just in the last several years, but it's also happening since in the last four decades is when they say down with the dictators, down with the Ayatollahs, we want freedom, and the Iranian people are willing to give up their lives and pay the price to our lives to obtain that free. Can you describe what those protests look like? Because again, the RGC and the regime has been fairly adept at limiting the news that comes out. And I know that's a big struggle, right, is to get the word out to the rest of the world as to what's happening. But what do those protests look like? Because from our perspective, it seems like over the years, anytime there is what appears to be growing movement on the streets, it fizzles out

under the intimidation and violence from the regime. So at this present time, how would you describe the level of dissent that gets out onto the streets and in a visible protest? I think the protest, obviously the news doesn't come out and there is definitely an issue of censorship. But I think the protests that, for example, took place in 2017, where it was in 2018 and 2018 and 2019, all the way to 2022, if you look at what really sparked the protests, even though it started with the economic grievances,

over the price of eggs, over the price of gasoline, or over the killing of the innocent girl Masa Amini, the Kurdish girl Masa Amini in 2022, I think what's really in common among all of these protests is the fact that the issue, the first slogan that starts with economic grievances quickly becomes a political demand and a push for a change of this regime. So that momentum, even though we're not seeing daily protests like the way we saw it in 2022, but that momentum hasn't

gone away. One of the things that the international community should really pay, and the media should really pay attention to how those protests have evolved in light of the suppression, in light of the execution and the freemongering by the IRGC. I think that is the key element of what would happen. And I think, in my opinion, based on my studies of what's happening on the ground, Iran is in a very revolutionary ready state. And even the regime's official are admitting that we are one protest, one nationwide protest away from facing the downfall.

So I think more than anyone, the Iranian regime really understands where its weaknesses and, as I said, Achilles Hill is. And I think that's why when you see how they engage with the international community, they try to limit the dialogue and discussion to nuclear power or nuclear threat. They try to limit the conversation to conflicts with Israel or regional powers. But where the real conflict is between this regime and the people of Iran, And that's where we need to pay attention to. Now, you ask me, obviously.

Doctor, if I could, I'm trying, again, I apologize. I keep interrupting you and I'm sorry for doing that. But being mindful of our time, we do have to take a quick break. Okay, so if you could stay right where you are, please don't go anywhere. We've got a lot more questions for Dr. Ramesh Separat. And we'll be right back here on the PDB situation report. Stay around. Hey, Mike Baker here.

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something that you said during the previous segment. You mentioned that the protests have evolved over time. What do you mean by that? Well, you know, when you saw the protests that took place in, I'm going to even go back to 2009, over the election fraud, then fast forward to 2017, which was Food Price, 2019 Fuel Price, and then the murder of Massa Amini. What the public experience in the nationwide uprising was mass arrest, public torture, public execution, and massive execution where protesters were facing death. Now, the resistance units inside Iran are becoming more and more sophisticated and are trying to evade and work around instead of having major and nationwide uprising,

the networking across multiple cities. I give you one example. In 2017, the protest started in the city of Mashad. And within hours, the same slogans, which is in north-west of Iran, northeast of Iran. Within hours, the same slogans were actually heard in south of Iran. So that really demonstrated the strength of the resistance unit. So you take that capability and resilient. and evolve it.

And now they are helping with the retired community in Iran every time they go in the streets and protests, it is no longer where is our unpaid wages as a slogan. They're saying, we want this regime gone. We see the same thing with labor movement. We see the same thing with teachers, nurses, the union. So this networking, this underground solidarity that we see it's happening, it's really forging a very difficult,

is forging a very strong united front against this regime that is making it difficult for the regime to resort back to its, you know, fear-mongering tactics to push back on the public. And that's why I think... But where does that go? I mean, if... I'm sorry, I take your point that it's becoming more sophisticated,

that the resistance itself is becoming more, coordinated better communicating amongst themselves but can they see and this is going to again be an odd question but can they succeed without a violent internal uprising because I don't see the the mullahs and the IRGC willingly giving in to the people without you know something drastic IRGC and the mallors know that there is an explosive socioeconomic conditions and a political player that has been persistent in the streets of Iran, which is the resistance network. That resistance network is connected to Iran's largest opposition, the

MECA, who is a member of a broader political organization, which is a parliament in exile of the National Council of the Resistance of Iran. How all of these, the next trigger can really create that nationwide uprising faster than anyone can predict or even much deeper, than the previous cycles. But where I think the international community can play a role is to really recognize, to your question, to the very specific question that you just asked, is to recognize the rights

of the Iranian people to overthrow this regime. However means that may come about, we must stand with the Iranian people. And that's why when you look at the bipartisan House resolutions that have been passed over the last five congresses, it has been always siding with the Iranian people and supporting their call for change. And I think this is now what we're experiencing and what we're seeing. So what I would say is ending of the appeasement of this regime, really understanding how this regime has been

delegitimized, can work hand in hand to trigger this next wave of uprising, but all of these synergies would come together to bring this regime down. That's how I see. this coming to head. Okay. Objectively, to the degree that you can, how would you describe the current economic conditions inside Iran? I mean, if you look at the value of the real, that value against the dollar that is constantly going down and the Iranian people are constantly, average Iranian is constantly very insecure about the future. If you look at the price of goods and the protests over the cost of basic necessity, that causes an issue right now at Tehran. Iran's capital is facing an massive environmental crisis and access to clean water and access

to water, which even Iran's president is now saying that we just don't have any solution for this. So, I mean, when you look at this regime's behavior, the mismanagement, the corruption, the mafia-style governance by the IRGC, their track record, it's so clear for these people that there is no solution coming from this regime. And that's why when I say there's an explosive socioeconomic conditions, it is really pressing this regime from all front. And of course, international community does have a role to play, which is let's continue to enforce the sanctions. we know. The IRGC holds the economy, and by enforcing the sanctions, we are squeezing IRGC, and thereby empowering the Iranian people to overthrow this regime. It's interesting when you, but before I, actually, I was going to talk to you about the 12-day

war and its impact on the mentality of the regime. But before I do that, you mentioned the water crisis. We've talked about that before here on the PDB. Can you give us a sense? a current update. I mean, because they were talking in very dire terms saying we may be out of water within a matter of a handful of weeks. I believe Pzeschkian was talking, the president was talking about possibly relocating the capital. So, you know, where are they at this point? Again, this is years of mismanagement. I can tell you, one of the core issues with water is how IRGC is, how you, decided with the mismanagement and lack of knowledge and expertise, decided to reroute the natural waterways and thereby creating barelands and creating problems that then become a flooding issue because of the way water flows. And the reason for them to do this because of how they wanted to purchase certain piece of land and get the water in the water.

and try to, through their mafia style, try to monopolize the access to the land and the water in that area. So years of experience and approaching the issue this way has now brought us to this conversation around where Pazirin, in a ridiculous way, is claiming that he wants to move the capital. And that's just not feasible. So, I mean, ultimately, when you think about it, this is not a regime that's ever worked for the people of Iran. This is not a regime that ever had the subject matter.

or allow the people who have the subject matter expertise to do some good for the public, and therefore they're now facing this water crisis that the number one victim of it is the Iranian people. Yeah. What do you think is going to happen with the succession issue? You mentioned that briefly earlier in our conversation, but if you had to, if you had to bet on what was going to happen, who takes over? I don't think how many Iran's current supreme leader who actually is ill has a solution for this. He was grooming certain characters who are no longer part of the equation because they were killed. And now he is at loss. And there are a ton of theories around how he could perhaps appoint his own son, which within the Iranian public,

they essentially make comments that how is this different than the previous monarchy when the reign of control gets passed down to their sons. So I think he's at a loss on what to do. But I think more importantly, comedy is also at loss because he has no way of really being able to control the internal factional fights that's happening today inside Iran. So all of that is public. Everyone and Iranian people are witnessing this. And that is why I think the regimes these are number.

And again, for them to continue to create some sort of a regional conflict or try to distract the issue from a denunciation of the Iranian public of this regime to some sort of a nuclear topic. All of this are the playbook that this regime has used in the past. and is no longer effective going forward. So what I would say is the death of Khamenei itself could be a trigger for the next nationwide uprising. But I actually think that will come before. I don't think Iranian people are going to wait for that move to take place. They are going to, when the situation is right, they are going to take to streets to bring this regime down. And the good news is what they have on their site is an organized resistance.

movement is a network of resistance units that have evolved and the international support from the U.S. Congress and more than 3,000 parliamentarian members and the platform for change that is reflected in a 10-point plan by Mariam Rajavi. So I think when you put all together, everything is in place for change in Iran. Last question, because I want to be mindful of your time. But, doctor, do you ever get frustrated or do you just have the ability to remain perpetually hopeful? You know, once I was asked, how could you keep going in light of all these atrocities and crimes,

my response has always been, how could you not? Because at the end of the day, this is, as an Iranian-American, I care about the future of Iran. I care about the future of Iran and U.S. relationship. And this is what gives me hope. Who gives me hope is the women of Iran, is the youth of Iran and those who are fighting for democracy and freedom. They are my source of inspiration.

Well, I tell you what, this has been a fascinating conversation, and I hope that you'll be willing to come on back to the situation report at some point in the near future so we can kind of explore this further. There's a lot here to dissect. But thank you, Dr. Ramesh Saperad, for your time, for your insight, and for your hope. I got to tell you, it's refreshing. Thank you again for joining us here on the Situation Report.

Well, that is all the time we have for the PDB Situation Report. If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. You know what we do? Every month, we all sit around the rather expensive conference table that we've got here at the secret layer of the PDB, and we choose your comments, your questions. We push them into what we call and ask me anything episode,

and we toss it out there for the viewer's enjoyment. So keep the cards and letters coming. That's what I'm saying. To listen to the podcast of the show ad-free, it's simple, just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. And if you get the chance,

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