PDB Situation Report | February 7th, 2026: First U.S.–Iran Kinetic Clash & Xi Tightens His Grip
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00:58See home depot.com slash license.numbers. Welcome to the PDP Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right,let's get briefed. First up, the U.S. Downs an Iranian drone in international waters. It's the firstdirect kinetic encounter of a new and potentially dangerous phase with Tehran. We'll be joined byretired rear-admiral Mike Studeman for more on that. Later in the show, China's military isfacing fresh upheaval as Xi Jinping expands his purge of senior officers,and control amid growing concerns inside the People's Liberation Army, the PLA.Jan Yerkelech, senior editor of the Epoch Times, stopped by to give us insight into what's happening
01:53at the highest levels of power in Beijing. But first, today's situation reports spotlight.This week, U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone after it approached a U.S. aircraft carrieroperating in international waters. According to U.S. Central Command, the drone's intent wasunclear, but its flight path and behavior were aggressive enough to trigger a defensive response.No damage was reported, but the message was unmistakable. U.S. forces will protect the fleet.The incident comes amid heightened regional tensions, of course, with U.S. naval assets operatingin crowded, contested waterways, where a miscalculation can escalate fast. It also raises questionsabout how Iran tests limits without crossing red lines. For more on this, I want to bring in
02:37retired rear-admiral Mike Studevin.former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence. He's also the author of the book,Might of the Chain, Forging Leaders of Iron Integrity. Sir, thank you very much for taking the timehere on the Situation Report. Hey, Mike, good seeing you again. Can't wait for your hard questions.Well, stand by. I'm sure I'll come up with one or two. But first, you know what,before we even do any of that, tell me about the book a little bit, if you could. Can you give theviewers a quick summary of what it's about and why you wrote it? Well, I retired two and a half yearsago. I was very passionate about leadership. I thought we had feelings at the national level.
03:17It didn't matter it's politics or business or, you know, anything else. And I felt like I shouldthrow in my voice and provide some trying to make methods for leading. It's not that hard if youstudy it and you actually do what you should do being brilliant in the basics on leadership.And so I wrote stories that described how to work on yourself.The second section kind of talks about your team and how to build, you know,teams that are up to the job of doing the heavy lifting,which is kind of making change in dealing with big stuff, big challenges, you know, later on.So anyway, those are the elements of the book.
03:56And I tell short stories with, you know, quick takeaways to make sure that people canread it fast because there are times precious and they deserve somebody to boil it down for.Did you find it tough write in the book if I could ask?As an intelligence officer, I couldn't tell my best stories, right? I had to tell the ones thatwere. Yeah. That's why I can get their review. I found them, I thought, to highlight what I wantedto highlight. But I ended up taking a lot of verbiage out of the book to make room for more storyand less sort of lecturing on leadership principles.I boil those down to key takeaways.
04:38They really tried to make it something that somebody could readand be a page turner.They could get through it and they can get back to the business of their lives.Yeah.Well, honestly, I've got to tell you something.As the father of three teenage boys,I find storytelling is much better at enforcing ideas than lecturers.hearing. It just seems
05:02how best how people respond.But I would encourage everybodylistening to, you go out and checkout the book, might of the chain.So, sir,let's startwhen we're talking about Iran. I'm fascinatedby this question. Maybe I'm
05:18beating a dead horse, butwhen President Trump said help is onits way, in the thick of it,when the protesters were out there being shotand being detained,And at this stage of the game now that they've regained control, the Iranian regime, I mean,what do you imagine President Trump met by that?I know that's speculation, but what do you think help means at this stage?
05:47Well, you know, that was always vague from the get-go.I think there's a natural emotional response to want to do something and to weigh inand suggest that there's a hammer coming to be able to most.moderate the behavior there. And so, I think that's a natural reaction. Not only, you know, the shock,but the disgust of what was happening with the Iranians murdering their own people. And sotrying to weigh in, trying to suggest that perhaps there was a threat that could be coming as a wayto change the, you know, ongoing massacres, I think was sort of a natural thing. Now, look, you don'thave that many tools in the toolkit when it comes to changing Iran's domestic situation. If you're
06:30not, you know, in there with your own capability, then you're essentially in a standoff mode.So what do you have in standoff and how much is that actually going to change things?Those are all matters for mass security policymakers to debate. And I'm sure they had those debatesin the National Security Council as they figured out their option set.A part of it is the emotive, the side of things, right? You have to separate that out fromreal politics and sort of the way the world actually works as opposed to how you'd like it to work.But it seems like we've been watching, and I'm sure you've been watching what's been going on in Iran for decades,and there's a familiar cycle to it.
07:11And it just seems like the international community, maybe because they are limited, obviously,and there's not an ability to respond in a meaningful way.But it seems like the response from the international community,any time that there's an uprising has always been feckless or just not-existent.And it's felt in the moment, I think, that this could have been different.I think that all leaders need to be very cautious with regard to either overrating your agency in making change in faraway placesor to do so in an enduring way or overusing any.one instrument to try to get your way. I frankly believe we're overusing our economic and our
07:58military instruments today at the detriment of the diplomatic and informational ones. I think we'reout of balance with regard to how we use power. But power has its limits and we've learned thatin the Middle East wars. So we ought to come at this with a little more humility and strategicpatience. But when you do have a crisis like we saw, you know, certainly you want to start throwing somelevers pretty quick. And as we've seen sort of the military presence as it grew there in theMiddle East, sort of the goal set has changed from, you know, don't hurt Iranians to now let medo ultra-maximum pressure to start re-negotiating nuclear agreement of some sort.If I could ask, maybe this isn't a fair question. But if you were,
08:52sitting at the big desk in the Oval Office.What would you do in this situation?Well, I do think that the window of opportunity is open for us to try to get Iran backinto some kind of negotiated settlement regarding what's becoming sort of the WildAl West with their nuclear program.So look, they're not affected by the same.nations to the degree necessary to have them change from what is an active program of ensuring that they continue to enrich.And this only goes in one dangerous direction.
09:34And so the question is, you know, how do we get them back to the table?This is the time to do it when they're at their weakest.And can we humor out something that gets us to a modus within Dave doesn't create another world crisis in the making, right, that affects all nations?So Iran's proxies are weakened domestically economically.They're in a very bad way with the collapse of the Rial.And the legitimacy, clearly, of the theocracy, you know, is in deep question.And many people resent what the security forces have just done.So in order to prevent more pain or more punishment,
10:20coming to Iran both internally and externally, I think the Iranians are willing to talk.So I do think there's an opening.We'll see what happens in Muscatamon, starting tomorrow with Krishna and Witkoff and company.But I suspect the Iranians might be willing to settle for something.I wouldn't expect them to add in, you know, negotiations that touch on their proxy support elementsthroughout the Middle East or the ballistic missile program,I think they're going to want to keep it confined to the nuclear programand try to hammer out something that will essentially take the dagger away from their heart.
11:02And that's exactly what Trump's trying to show them right now as a dagger that's headed toward a vital organ.Yeah, I mean, it seems as if they are setting up some pretty narrow guard rails or trying to anyway,and in a sense trying to kind of lead the discussion about where these talks will go,which seems an odd position for, you know, for the U.S. if the U.S. allows them to say,no, we're only talking about our nuclear program, unless we're just so desperate to want to talk about that,or to back off of, you know, potential military strikes.But there have been, you know, some reports, again, the problem with Iran intelligence,you know, that's far better than anyone is, you know, it's tough to assess the
11:47credibility of it and the credibility of the sources. But there does seem to be some concern within the regime itself that they are on the edge and that perhaps the concern is military strikes from the U.S. could upend the regime at that point. But that's a big if. And, you know, it's easy to say that from outside, right? It has to come internally. And, you know, those people have been killed by the thousands and detained by the tens of thousands. AndAnd so, yeah, Mike, I kind of agree with your thinking here.No, I was just going to add that, you know, I think you, I think we would be hopeful to wish that perhaps the security forces are at a tipping point and that things are going to collapse around.But that's their choice.If the theocracy, the government, the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Veseegis, their militia, they all have vested interest in maintaining.their power and interests there, and they do, then you're not going to see major cracks thatyou can exploit.And so what are you're going to bomb them to submission or into regime change?
12:59Even if you take out the top dog, we've learned through Libya and other, you know, Iraqand other places that that doesn't necessarily affect, you know, the kind of regime changeyou want or create stability and get that country on a course where they can be, you know,constructively rebuilding their economies and contributing to the national community.In fact, the opposite is what we've learned, is that when you head into the decapitation zone,you can end up with a situation that could be far worse and suffering for the people can be greater.So we have to be very cautious about, you know, what we could actually accomplish with sort of standoff attacks.Yeah, I want to pick up on that and then also talk about what some of the other regional players.
13:47may be doing or thinking in terms of the military buildup out there and their concerns overpotential direct conflict. But first, Admiral, we have to take a quick break. So if you couldstay right where you are, don't leave. We'll be back with more from Admiral Mike Stunemanright here on the Situation Report. Don't go anywhere. Thanks.Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask all the dudes out there a question, if I still may usethe word dudes. Have you got to a point in your life? Well, you're still hitting the gym.for you. You're still doing the same workouts. You're still keeping up a good diet. But now,you know what? It doesn't seem to be working. You know what I'm talking about? The same workouts
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17:14Joining me once again is retired rear Admiral Mike Studeman, former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence.Sir, thanks very much for sticking around here on the Situation Report.We've been talking about Iran.I was hoping to focus a little bit more on the actual deployment, the build-up of assets out there in the region.And as part of that, I think one of the fascinating elements of this iswhat the regional players, the Saudis, UAE, Jordanians, others are thinking, saying, doing,what conversations they may be having with the White House?What's your assessment of how they are processing all of this?
18:01Well, okay, we'll talk about the buildup.I mean, at this point in time, it's not an easy exact comparison.but still the naval presence isn't even as large as the Caribbean Sea deployments there.And so we have about a dozen, maybe 13, you know, ships, a different kind of mix, and about 150 aircraft.And, you know, close to 15,000 and 20,000 additional players in the Caribbean.Southcom's never seen any forces in its theater before.And you're talking about the Lincoln Stryker coming over, so they have three destroyers with,there may be additional subsurface assets that, you know, obviously we can't talk about,
18:49and I don't specifically know.But you have a combination of SSNs, attack submarines, with gland attack capability,along with SSGNs, which, I mean, they have 154 tubes that they can fire out Tomox.So you've got a large capability there with a naval.presence, but we need to, you know, maybe calibrate our language a little bit. Armada,that's a word designed to exaggerate for effect with the audience.We're not talking 1588 with 130 ships, you know, storming, you know, the English Channel togo out there, England, or anything.
19:25But designed to strike fear to the hearts of your opponents, right?And maybe negotiating task, that's the way to think about it.At the same time, there's a substantial amount of effort, which is normally how we set a theater.If we think there are going to be some strikes or counter strikes,defensive posture requires a whole set of things, right?And so you find we move air defense equipment around Patriots, you know, Thads.We move aircraft forward.You have F-15, strike eagles that went into Jordan that can shoot down.
19:56Some of these one-way attack drones could come in or cruise missiles.And you have a number of surveillance aircrafts, you know, that move around.We put jammers over there, some great-drawn.Alar's E18 golfs have moved over.And so we're setting the theater for any sets of options that we may want to exercise.And it just sort of makes prudent sense.I think the count is maybe about eight destroyers that are there in total.If you take a look at a couple of destroyers that are in the Arabian Gulf area,
20:31Strait O'Rourke-Roeuz zone, the carrier strike group of the Lincoln that's nearer to the Gulf,of Aden right now, the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean, I think you get a gathering ofprobably eight of our advanced ships, destroyers that have not just a strike capability,not just the air defense, but also the ballistic missile defense components to be able toshield our bases or the Israelis or whomever might be subject to retaliation.How do you assist the Iranian military's strength right now, their ability after the 12-daywar, their ability to retaliate in a meaningful way.They have options and they should not be underestimated.
21:14And so, look, their defense is maybe weak and they try to fill some gaps in the coveragewhere there used to be Russian advanced, you know, S-300 SAM types.They filled in them with some of their own and digitally built SAM systems.They also went on a crash course to Reno not just reconstituted, but expand theirballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone inventory.So it's hard to know the exact numbers there, but they got plenty of iron and steel that theycould shower with all these different families of systems from the drone types, ones thatare combat air vehicles to cruise missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, to the regular ballistic
21:58missile types to go all the way up, you know, into the higher ranges.So that's there in Israel would be very concerned, given how much they had to reduce their stocks in defending Israel in the 12-day war and before in 2024.From a capabilities position, there's been some talk about that the Iranians effort to perhaps in a retaliation to overwhelm the defenses of, say,an aircraft carrier with a drone swarm.Is that something realistic, you think?Well, the Iranians have, you know, planned their capabilities around that with more thoughtto if those naval forces were closer to the Iranian coast and the littoral, theStrait of Armuz, the Gulf, you know, the Gulf of Amman area further south on the approaches.
22:59And so, I mean, the Iranians have built up both symmetrical.circle and asymmetric capabilities.They have thought through what swarm looks like to overwhelm our defenses.And you saw a small taste of that when you had that U.S. flagged, U.S. crude merchant ship that wasalmost boarded, say, for the intervention of our destroyer and, you know, at Air Force aircraft.And so their eyes aren't hesitant to use those forces at a minimum for harassment.some of it's signaling, but they have been practicing for many years nowand actually doing operations to seize ships or to hurt them with drone attacks or helicopter,
23:47you know, kind of assault forces, you know, placing limpid mines on things.And so they're good at it.And we need to be cautious.The closer you range into Iran, you know, you're getting into the thick of the threat envelopes.And so it's a smart thing to make.make sure you, you know, maintain, you know, your distance as appropriate until you do a specificoperation. And then you might sort of dive in for a surge operation to be able to deliver munitionsand do so in a way that's sort of a smart in and out process. And we showed that during midnight,
24:23you know, hammer. Yeah. What about the Saudis and other key regional players out there?Do you think it's a case of, because look, I mean, you know, privately, I suspect a number of them would say, yeah, we'd be happy to see the Iranian regime gone.But the reality is that they're worried, as you talked about earlier, you know, what happens at that point?What are you opening the door up to?And so perhaps that fear of the unknown or the instability outweighs their perhaps.desire to see a change there in Iran.Yeah, first of all, I think you're right.Your assumption going into this is that, you know, changing the regime, because it's
25:11not just one personality, changing the regime in its full architecture is probably a bridgeway too far, right?A full-on collapse of Iran is not in anybody's interest in the region, right?And they know that, that if things get, you know, a lot worse than you have.a lot of ripple effects and instability that can be very destabilizing for many of those countries,including an exodus of people, but implosions left and right. And so they're very concerned.They do not. They made clear they don't want to have U.S. forces doing offensive strikes from theirhomeland from their territory. So they're trying to signal very clearly that they understand
25:57the U.S. military presence, but they are not in favor of a big.vetting any kind of actions I hear that might attempt to do something against Iran.I think they'd be okay with sort of offshore limited strikes maybe for pressuring,but anything more severe.I think the cost would go up significantly in terms of regional support.And I think they want to see these negotiations farewell.I think they know in their heart of hearts that they're going to have to abide by some kind of agreement,where sanctions relief is a component of it
26:34to enable the Iranian economy to stabilize.I hear what form that takes to be debated and negotiated,but there are some proposals that make sense.I think that the region has probably looked at the Russian proposalto essentially put in escrowlike any uranium that Iran has enriched,you know, to 60 percent, essentially hold it as a third-party holder,maybe kind of one of the best solutions out there
27:09because you had this dilemma here about, you know,the U.S. demands for zero enrichment.The Iranians, I don't think will go any less than 20 percent enrichmentfor medical purposes.And there's only way, you have these strong points here.I think the region is probably going to push the United Statesto find a reasonable compromise here.Get a win, but don't let things spiral out of control
27:35and certainly don't let Iran completely unravel.Yeah, yeah, it's...I think you've highlighted, with everything that you've been pointing out,I mean, you've highlighted, hopefully, to our viewersjust how complex this is, because, again, goingback sort of the emotive side of things. You can't watch it. A murderous regime kill thousands andthousands of their own citizens, detain tens of thousands of others, and not feel as if something's gotto be done. But the reality then sets in, right? I mean, obviously the regime is now willing to sit
28:17at the table, I think, because, you know, self-preservation. And they see that as the most likelyway to maintain controlas they can get some sort ofnegotiated agreementwhether they honor that or not.This hasn't been their track record in the past.Butultimately, and maybe it's just because
28:40I'm cynical having dealt with thisover all these years,is that ultimatelyit just feels like you're putting lipstick on a pig.And this problem's going to resurface.We won't have the ability to reallymonitoring control, will agree to an agreement just to get that agreement.I know I'm sounding really negative here, sir, but, and then it's the issue of their
29:04proxies again.So that's the conundrum.You know, you're never going to have long-term stability of peace in the Middle East.I don't think as long as this existing regime continues to exist.But the problem is without an internal organized opposition.that's able to push back in a meaningful way against the Mullahs and the IRC.I just don't see how that happens.So it's enormously frustrating.
29:36I know there's not a question in there, sir, but I just thought I'd bang on about it for a little bit.It's worth talking about, though, because, you know, this idea of transformation and expectationmanagement is a key consideration for policymakers.I mean, do you think neocons were right when they thought that they were going todemocracy bloom in the Middle East, and we got, you know, 20 years of GWOD.And what, $7 trillion later in a lot of American lives and a lot of suffering in the Middle East?And what do we have to show for it?And so sometimes, you know, even though it's not ideal, it's not optimum, it's not what you would want to see,
30:15you can't let your wishful thinking affect your pragmatic realism, the realpolitik of the world.and understand that you can't rush history and that some societies are not ready or may never be ready for the type of governance or type of arrangements that would make them essentially a responsible stakeholder in the community of nations, right?And so you have to, I think, look at things very clear-eyed and what can you get?And in this case, you can create another lever of influence, which is to say that if you get a nuclear,deal of some sort, right, that stabilizes the current crisis, and you have some form of sanctionsrelief, which is a carrot that you can always pull back if the behavior worsens again orreconstitutes by way of proxies, as you pointed out, then you still have influence. And so if it'sthe art of getting more influence and getting yourself advantaged to shape things in the future,
31:21even on the margins, you're still shaping things in a better way.You never want to be out of options or out of levers, that's for sure.Right.Yeah.That's very well said, sir.Well, I've got another couple pages of questions, but what I don't have is time.And I really appreciate you spending your time with us here on the Situation Report.Sir, I hope that when we give you a shout in the future, you'll pick up the phone and
31:48agree to come back on.anytime Mike you talk about all the relevant issues and you ask the penetrating questionsthese things will be unpacked for decades probably without resolutionout of year or so managing it event by event is maybe the best that we can we can do butI appreciate your focus on this and helping people understand kind of the detailsabsolutely sir listen thank you very much rear admiral Mike studeman again for joining usproviding your insight thank you very very much and check out his book I'm serious about thatmight of the chain, okay? It's been out for about a year and a half, but it's an excellent read
32:24on leadership. And it's, it really is outstanding. I encourage you highly to go out and getyourself a copy of it. All right, coming up next, China's military leadership is being reshapedin real time as Xi Jinping presses ahead with a sweeping purge inside the ranks. What, another purge?Yes. We'll be joined by Jan Yakelech. He's the senior editor of the Epoch Times to break down what'shappening at the highest levels of power under Sheehing-Thing-Thing. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here with animportant tip for home safety. Look, if you own a handgun, this message is for you. Handgun ownersknow that often your weapon storage options likely fall into two frustrating categories, locked awayand out of reach or unsecured and vulnerable. You know what I mean? Particularly if you've got family
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34:32Own the dream.Hey, you, feeling hungry?Run the Denny's Four.The new attorney.And see the new Masters of the Universe movie,only in theaters June 5th.Welcome back to the PDB situation report.China's military is undergoing
34:55a major shakeup as Xi Jinping expands his ongoing purge of senior officers across the People's LiberationArmy, the PLA. Over the past year, top commanders tied to China's missile forces and procurement systemshave been removed, sidelined, or quietly disappeared from public view. You don't want to be quietlydisappeared in China. Officially, Beijing frames this as an anti-corruption drive. Of course they do.But the pattern suggests something deeper. Shee consolidated control over the armed forces ahead of potentialcrises involving Taiwan, the South China Sea, and beyond. Internal distrust at the top raisesserious questions about readiness, morale, and command reliability inside China's military. Now, to helpus understand what's really driving this purge, I want to bring in Jan Yakel, he's the senior
35:43editor of the Epoch Times. Jan, thank you very much for joining us here on the Situation Report.Thrill to be here, Mike. And you know what? I think I correctly pronounce you.your last name, so I'm done here. I have accomplished my job. I think your top one percentile on it.It's pretty good. Excellent. Well, thank you again for taking the time with us. Let's start from the30,000 foot level. What's your assessment of what's been happening recently? We've been referring to it as a purge.Obviously, it was a top, you know, uniform military officer in the PLA that has now been showndoor, but give us your assessment of what's been going on there.Well, this is a once in a, you know, at least a decade, possibly once in a generation event
36:36for the Chinese Communist Party.And let me explain why.Okay, last year, we had a situation where there was a series of changes, a lot of, a numberof people were purged, a number of people were put under investigation.And what it was happening was, it was actually the military taking back.control of some of the power that Xi Jinping had amassed, okay? And this is, you know,Xi Jinping is taking all these steps over the last few years to make himself the Paramount,the Kingpin, the one sort of central pole, basically taking on Mao's role back in the day, right?
37:12This hasn't happened in a very long time in the CCP, but the military last year took backquite a bit of power. And this was a significant, we reported on this at the epoch times a lot.what we saw here now is basically she's counterattack, okay?And it's absolutely fascinating because Zhang Yusha, he is someone who, you know, firstof all, he is the top military leader, basically, aside from Xi Jinping himself, okay,who's technically on top.But she doesn't have any military experience, right?And these last two guys that were just purged, including Zhang, these were the last two
37:53people who actually have this serious combat experience. They've actually fought in wars. They knowhow the military works. Okay. So now you have out of the seven people that were on the CentralMilitary Commission, there's only two left, and one of them is she, and none of them have militaryexperience. If I could interrupt you on, I mean, it's fascinating because if you think about,I mean, what, what, seven members of this military commission, which essentially is the managementboard, right, for military. But now you've got to, you've got.two remaining, do they intend to name, I would assume, additional personnel to backfill to replace the ones who have been moved out?This plays out in different ways.
38:36Sometimes they actually change the composition, that change the number that are going to be on there.Sometimes they try to fill them.It's not clear where it's going to go.This is very fresh information.And frankly, you know, and some people disagree with this, but there's frankly a lot of questions.within the military itself about what is going on because, you know, the chain of commandhas been broken. And this is something, you know, in the way that these, the communist parties,wherever they function in the world, work, they kind of function a bit like the mafia, right?
39:08They're extremely hierarchical. There's like the head on. They lay out, there's written rules,but then there's the key rules are the unwritten rules, okay? And in this situation, what'shappened, and this is a number of our analysts have really highlighted this,is that some of these unwritten rules, like how you actually decide who's going to be in charge, right?There's a bunch of this kind of machination that usually happens, and this is all ahead of the Congress that's upcoming, right?And now have been broken.So with these unwritten rules broken, everyone's thinking to themselves, wait a sec, now my loyalties.You know, Zhang Yu Shah, Zhang Yu Sha was one of Xi Jinping's closest guys for the longest time.
39:49They've had over the last while some kind of public spats, okay, and these has to do withhow to deal with Taiwan, right?Jiang Yu Sha's position, I mean, this is a little bit oversimplified is that, you know,we're not really in a position where we can do something there.That's the intelligence that we've been getting, whereas she, you know, possibly is interestedin trying to use this, you know, she just a little bit about Taiwan, right?If you're in the Chinese military, you're taught that it is your right, it is part of yourright and duty to take Taiwan at some point. It's like a central piece of, I guess,
40:25indoctrination or ideological propaganda around the military itself, right? So this is there. And sheis really looking to kind of create a legacy for himself, show himself as this leader that'sat the level of someone like Mao or Deng Xiaoping, okay, because there really hasn't been one of thatstature. And, you know, Taiwan is one of these things that could show that he is, like,that how is he going to do it?Because he actually doesn't know how to use the military.So it's just a very unstable, strange situation to be in that I don't think has actually happened under the Chinese Communist Party before.But it's fascinating if you think about, I mean, what you said about legacy, right?
41:08Because the question is always, you know, how strong is she's grip on power?You know, does he have the backing?of the party and more importantly of the military.But also, what's the timeline on Taiwan?So if you assume that he looks at it and thinks of Taiwan as this is his legacy, right?He's not walking off into the sunset, you could argue,until he affects this reunification as he would imagine it to be.So it is, I mean, it is fascinating, but I guess my question,
41:47and I am getting to my question, Jan, is with the purges that take place within the military,and with she assuming more and more power, you would have to imagine,and I'm asking you for your perspective on this, you have to imagine that that creates a lot of discontentwithin the senior and even mid-level ranks who see their opportunities to rise upkind of is shoved to the side, right, because she is claiming more and more power,He's got a very tight group, it appears, of who he really trust.What's your perspective of the military's attitude towards Xi at this point?Well, I'll just slightly reiterate something I mentioned, which is kind of a shocking situation, right?
42:37Like, you have your loyalties in these, again, going back to the mafia analogy, right?You have your loyalties.You have the people with whom you share power and you trust.right? What the message that she has sent to everybody, especially the military right now,is that those alliances mean nothing, that those alliances, that it doesn't matter how close you areto me, like Zhang Yu Shah, right, for example, it doesn't matter. You are actually, you can bepurged just as hard as somebody who is on the other faction, very overtly of the other faction.I mean, this has even been described by some analysts as an actual
43:17coup, even though technically she is actually in charge, but it's a coup against the military.What do you think about Xi's grip on power? I've talked to some China analysts who believeit's actually not this kung fu grip like, you know, was portrayed on occasion, that it's actuallyrelatively shaky. Where do you stand on that? I believe that it's shaky, okay, but at the same time,I think she has shown, you know, substantive resolve in kind of achieving this absolute power.You know, I was not expecting that he would be able to pull off something like this, you know, purging some of the most powerful people, you know, in the military.And it's not entirely clear exactly where his power base is, but it's clear that it's holding because otherwise,you would have, again, some kind of counter coup or something happening.
44:18We don't know the exact machinations.You know, these, of course, things are a state secret.We just know that a lot of people that are in positions of power are, one, being purgedand two, feel like they're on incredibly shaky ground.I find it difficult to predict in this situation, you know, how shaky he really is.But the thing that I can say is that the PLA, and by the way, the People's Liberation Army is not the Army, people often don't realize this, is not the Army of the country of China.It is the Army of the Chinese Communist Party. It's the Party's Army, right? The People's Liberation Army ability to enact power, ability to do what it's supposed to do as a military, which by the way, in part is a very inward-facing role.is the thing that they're the most scared of is their own people.
45:14There's a whole, of course, there's a whole security apparatus that's specifically focused on this,but the PLA is also to some extent, that that, that, the power, the overall ability of thatstructure to function effectively has been lessened considerably.And I think this creates kind of a very unstable situation because, you know, we don't know.Like, is she going, does she have, you know, is he have this megalomaniac type, type visions that, you know,Has he purged the people that were saying, no, we can't do Taiwan because we know you, we can't because of our military reality, but he goes for it anyway.You don't put much stock in his constant fallback, which is, oh, these purges are a result of my anti-corruption drive.No, this is pure politics.
46:00I mean, they're all, they're all corrupt, okay?That's the kind of funny part, right?If you're in these roles, you have had to do some serious damage to your fellow man to get to these places.Okay.So, and everyone has a dossier and everybody else.This is how communist systems work.And so the moment you get purged, the dossier is there ready to show the evidence, right?But the reason you're being purged is not corruption.
46:27It's because you were, you know, inconvenient to the person who actually manages to wield the power at that moment.But isn't there a danger that if you go through enough of these perugists, I mean, Shihingthing, I mean, if he goes through enough of these, that you've created a sort of a mass on theoutside now that's got its own abilities and its own force, or is that just sort of a Westernview of things?And in reality, there's such strict control that that sort of thing just wouldn't happen.There's a number of things happening in China as we speak.I actually completely agree with you that there's obviously a whole lot of people that are asking a lot of questions about whether she's the right guy that still are in positions of power.
47:16Or are these, you know, multi-billionaire super elites that, you know, don't want to lose the, you know, incredible gains they've been able to kind of graft off of the, off of the backs of the Chinese people and America, for that matter, you know, I might mention.So again, it's not clear to me right now how he's holding it together, but clearly a number of these big families are backing him at the moment.I do think it's a time of instability like we haven't seen internally, and it's unclear how it will actually play out.And so you're talking about this mass forming, right?Let me talk a little bit about civil society, okay?Because the thing that distinguishes communist societies from authoritarian states, okay, is that it's a totalitarian structure that destroys all semblance of civil society.This is one of the reasons why communist societies don't liberalize.They have to kind of crash and then maybe liberalize, right, once the kind of communist party is out of power.
48:20Right.So this creates this weird situation where there's a specific direct attack on society.But on all this bubbling, the places where change can happen, the things that, for example,the Tocaville when he came to America and wrote democracy at America, noticed and found the mostamazing thing about America was these, you know, people just kind of getting together,seeing a problem and getting it done, fixing it, right?That doesn't happen in this society.It all has to come from the top.
48:51But back in 2000, if you might remember, 1999-2000, the Chinese Communist, the Chinese CommunistParty started, the party started persecuting a group called Falling Gong. You might recall this.These are people practicing truthfulness, compassion, tolerance. 70 to 100 million of people were doingit. Actually, the thing that's really interesting, a lot of individual agency among these people,this was one of the things that the Communist Party really didn't like. Well, what they did was,in effect, by creating this persecution, they created what I would describe as the largest civildisobedience movement, possibly in the world that exists today. You have, you know, tens of millions ofpeople going around China, educating their fellow man about the horrors of communism.
49:32Okay. And why? If you, if you ever been part of any element of the party before,you should actually quit it because it's not good for you to be a part of it. And so this is,this is actually happening as we speak. And hundreds of millions of people have kind of takenthis step to either quit the young pioneers, these kind of youth groups that they were oncepart of or the actual communist party. And so there are people that have kind of put it behind them,Right. And some of these people are these high level officials too. Right. So that's also another unknown. It's unclear, you know, how much of an effect this whole quitting the CCP movement has had. What kind of fact? But tens of millions of people are sorry, hundreds of millions of people actually done this process. And it is the kind of the equivalent of a kind of a civil society, right, that might actually try to foster meaningful positive change that involves a bit more freedom.at the very least.Of course, the party has the guns.
50:29There is that.Jan, if you could stay right where you are,I've got a lot more questions for you.But we do have to take a quick break,and then we'll be back with more from Jan Yakel of the Epoch Times,right here on the Situation Report.So you know what I'm going to stay next, right?I'm going to say, stick around.
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52:02Welcome back to the BDB Situation Report.And joining me once again is Jan Yakel, the senior editor of the Epoch Times.We've been talking China.We've been talking about Shishing-Thing things purge, latest purge in China.We've been talking about the PLA, the People's Liberation Army, which has usually explainedthere of Yon is a bit of a misnomer, considering it's the army for the party.But I've been a little bit remiss because I meant to start out by asking you about your book, which is coming out in March.And the title of that book is killed at order.
52:38And I'd like, if you could, just kind of tell our viewers what it's all about, where they can get it when it comes out.This is something I've been studying for 20 years.And it's really only these days in the last few years that I think our public social consciousness in America and free society is kind of ready.to accept the level of atrocity, which is killed to order.And let me explain to you what it is.So you kind of need to do this kind of, it's a type of organ trafficking, okay?A type of, we call it forced organ harvesting, okay?And it's not your run-of-the-mill black market operation, okay, that you kind of hear about
53:17these urban legends and so forth.These black markets operate in many different countries, including like in Mexico andIndia and so forth. This is a whole different level. You need a kind of state actor to be driving it.You need someone with a lot of power, okay? You need a body that can push mass propagandainto a population to dehumanize a group of people, okay? And you need to be able to incarceratea huge group of people, say a million, okay, maybe two. It's unclear. Again, how many, but a verylarge one. So once you do that, this is what the Chinese Communist Party did back in 1999, 2000,to the Falun Gong. They put, they dehumanized them using propaganda similar actually to what we
53:58saw in the 30s in Germany, what the Germans did against the Jews. And then they incarcerated millionsof that. Okay. And then what they started doing is blood typing them, tissue typing them,organ scanning them. Okay. And now here in America, someone like me, let's say I have a prettyserious card condition. And I've been waiting for years because in an ethical system, we have asituation where someone needs to have an accident and they need to be, you know, basically reallyalmost dead, not likely to come back and they have to match me in different ways, size, you know,basically blood type, tissue type, things like that in China. Because this database has alreadybeen created of all these things, there's a political prisoner, a prisoner of conscience,
54:45typically, which was started with the Falun Gong that's ready to be killed to order if I pay 200 grand,and I can come in two weeks and get that transplant schedule.And this is happening to the tune of the best estimates we have, something like 60 to 90,000 transplants a year, okay, since the mid-2000s.So this is large scale.This is industrial.It's a crime against humanity.and, you know, really not anyone has done much about it over the years,although the last few years there's been a shit.
55:20Yeah, that's remarkable.So the book comes out in March.It's called Killed Order, and you can go to killed to order.com to check it outand find out where you can get your copy.Jan, thank you very much for catching us up to speed on that.But going back to Xi Jinping and the Chinese regime,and take a little bit of a left turn here in our conversation.With what happened in Venezuela and the events in Iran,
55:48what's your assessment about how the Communist Party, Xi Jinping,how are they watching that?How are they assessing what's happening?This is actually connected in a way with what I just talked to you about, okay?Because what I argue in the big part of this book that I just wrote is abouthow you can use this forced organ harvesting system to actually understand how things work incommunist China, okay? And frankly, in communist systems more broadly. The reason you can have thesekinds of atrocities, okay, is because they use a form of thinking, right, when it comes to say,
56:27health, which is called utilitarian bioethics. But it's kind of utilitarianism where the CommunistParty is always in the absolute top position, the survival of the party, the supremacy, thesupremacy of the party is the paramount good, okay, in their, in their particular logic. So now I'mgoing to answer your question, right? So this is why you can have an atrocity where the super elitesin China get access to unlimited organs, right, from the population. The way that communist China iswatching Venezuela and now possibly Cuba, Iran, all these scenarios, right, where the Trump administrationis, you know, basically saying that we don't really like what you're doing, right?And it's actually infringing upon, especially in North America,
57:18looking with this sort of new initiation, what's being called the Dunrow Doctrine, right,where America is sort of, you know, shoring up a focus on the region of North and South America,on the Americas, is that they're asking themselves,is the U.S., what is the U.S. going to do to us, right?And because the U.S. has already done something that's, I think, incredibly powerful,which is enforce these new tariff regimes, right?And I was actually at the White House at the time when we, I think it was called Liberation Day,right, back in the day when those tariffs were put in.
57:54Right.And, you know, a lot of those, the tariffs, I mean, there's a lot of debate about how they played out,but a lot of them were really about stopping China.from basically dumping goods, manipulating currency and dumping goods into the American market.And because this, basically, it's this, the CCP has been using its export ability,its ability to produce, by the way, created through a lot of, you know, American investment,the ability to produce all sorts of these goods for export as wielding it as a weaponand basically getting a lot of wealth out of the rest of the world,
58:33especially the United States.The United States has said, no, we're going to stop this bad behavior, right?Because this is something that is, it's way more in the interest of the Chinese than it is us.Okay.And similarly, this is what America has done with Venezuela, where they said, look, you know,we gave you lots of chances, Maduro.We gave you lots of chances to kind of change how you're doing things and stop, you know,basically, you know, creating problems for America.
59:00but since you decided that you're just going to keep this up this bad behavior,we're going to have to remove you, right?And I mean, I don't know how it's going to play out in Iran exactly.Right.But, you know, the president has indicated that he's not going to tolerate, you know,too much more mass killing.And Iran is a very interesting situation because it's a population where they really aren't,they really aren't interested in having this regime in power.
59:28How impactful is Maduro's removal and potentially, look, I think we'll see a shift to change in the Cuban regime well before we see any change in Iran, right? If I had to guess, I think, and as disappointing it will beat all those protesters and dead and detained, I think the definition of help when the White House said help is out its way is probably negotiations and, you know, maybe some memos.but I suspect there's because there's more of a connected line between Venezuela,what happened there, what may happen there, and the Cuban regime.But how impactful, if we just talk about development there in Latin America and the Caribbean,how impactful is that on the Chinese regime?I think it's massively impactful because the U.S. as sort of, the U.S., thereis some precedent for the U.S. doing this sort of thing, but not with a country like Venezuela,which has kind of been a kind of a weird darling of the, of the, let's call it the really radical
01:00:45left-wing people in America. So the U.S. has basically said, you know, we're ready to do thiskind of, you know, surgical insertion and actually it's, you know, remove a big, you know,bad actor that's hurting us. And we're going and we're just, we're just going to do that. And I thinkthat creates, uh, you know, a lot of what you would call an unpredictability. It shows that the,the trumpet administration is ready to do things, which were just simply completely off the table inthe past. I think that's how it will be perceived, even though I do think there were, there wereexamples where this has happened, but not in this in the limelight, not in this high profile way.And not by the way in a way where this is a, this is like a massive, a nature.
01:01:30regime of communist China, right? I just might add that was that the leader was removed from.It's going to be hard for them to fix it because this is a, you know, the, the borders in thatregion don't matter so much. There's, you know, basically terrorist organizations,narco cartels, all sorts of stuff operating there and how to, you know, keep it all, it's a failedstate. It's hard to fix. It's not as simple as removing a person, but the Chinese and everyone knowsthat the U.S. is ready to do stuff like this.And I think that is a bit of a game changer in my view.Yeah, I agree with you 100%.
01:02:07Yeah.I mean, I think, you know, there's a lot to be said for unpredictability, right?And I think the fact that Trump, look, a lot of people dislike Trump because the chaos, right?They view it and everything is, oh, it's chaotic.And sometimes it is, right?But you have to set all of that aside.And I think you have to set aside the, you know, okay, do you personally likeTrump or not, I don't really care one way or the other. I'm more of a policy person and how it
01:02:33impacts U.S. national security concerns. And there is something to be said for keeping theChinese regime on its back foot or any hostile, you know, government on its back foot becausethey're just not sure how to read what could happen next, right? And you could argue that,you know, we have had administrations, the Biden administration being one where it was verypredictable. They knew what they were getting. They knew how he was going to react. What, 50 years inforeign policy. So there was never a surprise that it emboldened them to do things because they couldpredict what would happen. And I think that the benefit of sort of someone who upends the norm is thatyou do keep people off balance. And I think that can be a very helpful thing at times in the world
01:03:16of foreign policy and national security concerns. Jan, I tell you, this has been fascinating.I really appreciate you joining the Situation Report, taking your time. I would encourageencourage everybody to go to Kildoorder.com, check out Jan's new book and figure out how to get acopy of it and then read it, right? Remember that. That's always important. I've got, I have a policythat says, every time I get a new book, I have to read that book before I can get another book,right? And so anyway, but listen, thank you. Jan Yacahelik from the E.EBuck Times,really, really appreciate your insight, your expertise. And I hope you'll come back next timewe give you a shout. I look forward to it and I'm sending you a book. What a great guy. I encourage
01:04:02you. Seriously, go out and get that book, right? It's, it's from what I've heard and from what Jan'sdescription, gaining some insight into the nature of the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping.I think it's well worth it because, you know, they are it, right? You know, you talk about what's yourforeign policy concern over the next five, 10, 15 years. It's China. All right. That's all the timewe have for this week's PDB situation report. I know.Don't be so sad because we will be back next weekend.If you have any questions or comments, maybe you've got a humorous anecdote.Maybe you've got a limerick if people still do those.
01:04:33Reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com.You know what we do.Every month, our amazing team, we even include our interns in this process.They select a bunch of your questions, and we produce one of our almost award-winning, soon-to-be, I assume,critically acclaimed, or will be critically acclaimed, ask me anything episodes.And finally, to listen to the podcast of this show ad-free, you can do that, and it's very, very simple.Just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com.Now, I'm Mike Baker. Until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.
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