The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | June 15, 2024: Russia's Stalled Offensive & Taiwan Strait Showdown

Episode Date: June 15, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: We're starting today's show with an important update from Eastern Ukraine, where Russia's offensive in Kharkiv seems to be hitting a wall. We'll chat with Retired Lieutenant Colonel Tony Shaffer, who will share his analysis and insight on exactly what's happening on the ground. China's aggressive wargames in the Taiwan Strait are raising serious alarms. We'll be joined by author Dmitri Alperovitch to unpack the implications of these maneuvers and what they could signal for a potential showdown between the US and China. We'll examine the rise of the Tren de Aragua, a brutal Venezuelan gang making its way into US cities. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th. The powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamavat Theater.com. Only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You in? Must be 21 to enter. Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.

Let's get briefed. We're starting today's show with an important update from eastern Ukraine, where Russia's offensive in Kharkiv seems to be hitting a wall. We'll chat with retired lieutenant colonel Tony Schaefer. He'll share his analysis and insight on exactly what's happening on the ground. Later, we'll turn our focus to the Taiwan straight. You've probably heard of that, where China's aggressive war games are raising serious serious alarms will be joined by author Dmitri Alperovic to unpack the implications of these maneuvers

and what they could signal for a potential showdown between the U.S. and China. But first, today's situation report's spotlight. It appears that Vladimir Putin's offensive in northeastern Ukraine has stalled out as U.S. weapons arrive on the front lines and the Russian military reportedly suffers monumental casualties. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, he's the Dugie Hauser of National Security Advisors, delivered the U.S. assessments in an interview on Sunday saying the arrival of U.S. weapons, approved by the U.S. Congress in April, helped Ukrainian forces turn the tide in recent weeks, preventing Russia from advancing further on the northeastern city of Kharkiv.

That's according to a report from Voice of America. Appearing on Face the Nation on Sunday, Sullivan said, quote, Karkiv is still under threat, but Russians have not been able to make material progress on the ground in recent days in that area. He noted that President Biden's recent approval for Ukraine to use American-made weapons to strike certain targets inside Russia had helped leaders in Kiev diminish Moscow's ability to sustain their operations. Ukrainian officials confirmed the first official use of these weapons last Tuesday, which they used to destroy Russian missile launchers in the Belgarod. region, roughly 20 miles or so, into Russian territory. And those systems were being used by the

Russians to bombard Kharkiv. Sullivan said, quote, the Russians really have kind of stalled out up there, and their advance on Kharkiv is all but over. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy cautiously echoed those sentiments in his evening address on Saturday, where he declared that Russia's offensive in northeastern Ukraine had failed. He stressed, however, that fighting in the region continued, and Ukrainian forces were working to contain Russian forces as well as to try and destroy their remaining units. Now, as we've been tracking on the PDB, Russia officially opened up a new front in their war against Ukraine on the 10th of May when they mounted a cross-border offensive in the northeast region of

Ukraine, throwing some 30,000 troops at Ukraine's frontline defenses. The Russian forces managed to penetrate much of Ukraine's border defenses in the region, capturing several border villages and advancing reportedly as far as six miles into Ukrainian territory before Ukrainian reinforcements halted their progress. Since then, Ukrainian forces have managed to retake some border villages and parts of the border city of Vovchansk, while reportedly decimating Russia's ranks. While verified details are hard to come by, Russia has reportedly been losing troops at a staggering rate, with Zelenskyy claiming Russia's losses during the offensive are eight times higher than Ukraine's, eight times higher than Ukraine's.

Ukraine's defense ministry said on June 1st that Russia had lost more than 38,000 troops during the month of May, which, if accurate, would mark the deadliest month for Moscow's military since their invasion in February of 2022. We should stress again that these figures can't be confirmed, and Ukraine has a habit of issuing casualty numbers that are far higher than the estimates of Kiev's Western allies. The update out of Kharkiv came just days after President Biden met with Zelensky in Paris and apologized to the Ukrainian leader for the months-long delay in American military aid. Biden said the delay had been exploited by Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine, and of course, he laid the blame squarely on conservative members of Congress, naturally. Now, despite turning the tide

in the northeast, leaders in Kiev are urging caution. Officials have previously said that Russia's operations may have been designed to test Ukrainian defenses in advance of a larger summer offensive. The Putin regime has also threatened escalation in response to the limited use of Western-made weapons in Russia. Putin suggested last Wednesday that he may begin arming American and European adversaries with Russian military weapons to attack the West, while, of course, also issuing yet another nuclear threat. All right. When we come back, we'll have a lot. We'll have more on this with my friend and retired lieutenant colonel tony schaefer don't go away unless unless of course you're you're just off to pour yourself another cup of blackout coffee in which case well hurry back

hey there mike baker here if you're a listener to the pdb you know there's a lot going on in the world today right authoritarian regimes on the march wars overseas political turmoil across the globe this is why now more than ever you should support those on the right side of history Now, Blackout Coffee is committed to your values, supporting constitutional rights and certainly supporting those on the front lines, the troops, local law enforcement, and really honoring all hardworking Americans. I'm proud to recommend Blackout Coffee. This is a coffee company that is 100% committed to the American traditional values.

From sourcing the beans to the roasting process, customer support and shipping, they've got an incredible work ethic and are dedicated to promoting your principles and accept absolutely no compromise on taste or quality. Check out blackout coffee.com slash PDB and use coupon code PDB for 20% off your first order. Ditch those other guys. Seriously, ditch them. Blackout coffee remains true to your values. That's blackout coffee.com slash PDB and use coupon code PDB for 20% off your first order. As they say, be awake, not woke. Now's the time to save on new carpet at the Home Depot. Receive 10% off your total carpet project and 12 months special financing. Plus, we'll measure your space for free. Choose from a variety of stylish, on-trend options fit

for everyday life with life-proof, life-proof with pet-proof technology, home decorators collection, and traffic master carpets. Save 10% and get 12 months special financing. Now at the Home Depot. Offer valid April 16th through May 3, 2006. Exclusions apply for licenses. See Home Depot.com slash license numbers. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. For more on Russia's offensive in Kharkiv, I want to bring in the president of Project Sentinel, retired lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer,

and a caveat, he happens to be a very good friend of mine, and he happens to also be a lot smarter than I am. Tony, welcome. Oh, not true. Thank you, Mike, for saying that. You'll get the checks in the mail, just saying. You've told me that. I never do see the checks.

Tell me the check's in the mail. I have yet to receive a check. So thanks for having me. It's great to join you. By the way, we've talked about this before. You and I are both case officers. So it's interesting that I'm a military case officer. I went through back before when we had separate but equal schools. I was MOTC, the old school. So much of what I've learned over the years is to listen and try to observe. So I think you and I share that skill. like we're always skeptical. As skeptics, you want to absorb and assess before you act.

So I think that's what we share. So so much of what I do still, I still do that. I'm not an analyst. I always tell people it's like, I'm not an analyst. I wouldn't smart enough to be in the D.I. You know, those guys are all, you know, high degrees and latte drinkers. I'm not, you know, I don't. Anyway, so regarding the issues relating to the Russian offensive,

I think there's several things at play right now. One of those things, which I think is delayed their actions a little bit, is the announcement of NATO and the United States of the change of policy that's going to allow U.S. and NATO weapons to be used to hit Russian targets. That is to say, even in Carkeep, and Joe Biden tried to say, well, you know, targets next to the issue, the areas where the Russians are occupying. That's what he meant to say. He kind of butchered that and said, well, you know, they're kind of just a little bit inside Russia.

What he was trying to say is that anywhere the Russians have occupied areas of actual Russia, that is to say, beyond Ukraine into Russia, the weapons can be used. Do I believe for a minute the Ukrainians will be limited to that? But talk to me about that, Tony, because that implies that somebody, other than Ukrainians, are signing off on whatever target package there. that's right coming up with. I mean is the US engaged in that process? Yes. So according to my sources, there are a several federal agencies, three-letter agencies. We probably know who they are. And they've been essentially using all source intelligence, much of which we obtained through satellites, through

SIGIN, and they've been able to put together and provide to the Ukrainians over the what you and I would call over the horizon. It's things that tactic that the Ukrainian tactical intelligence cannot see from from its perspective being in Ukraine or on the border between the car key area and Russia. So you correctly identify the need to have strategic intelligence capabilities to be effective. And yes, we have been providing those. And that's, again, Mike, that's why I think Putin's taking a step back. And a direct response to that is the flotilla now in Cuba. We have several ships, current frigates with some of their latest hypersonic missiles, and two nuclear submarines, which the Russians have said are not equipped with nuclear weapons. Now, I don't know if I

believe that or not, but the response to... Oh, I believe. Hey, you know what? If Putin says something, by God, I believe it. Come on. It seems like a trustworthy character. I'm ready to... I want to back up... Yeah. I want to back up, if I could.

I want to back up to their initial offensive, right? It's been about a month since they launched that offensive around the northeastern area. Before we get talking, because you're absolutely right. Eventually, we want to get to the, you know, hey, look, it's the 1960s all over again with the flotilla in Cuba. But talk to me about that initial offensive. How much of a... was it to both Ukraine, us, NATO, etc. And how successful were the Russians initially?

Initially, they gained some pretty good ground. I'd have to go back and look at the list of cities, but there's several cities that were in contention for months. And what the Russians did, it was quite brilliant. I mean, the Russians are brutal fighters. You know that, Mike. And what they did is they figured out there was a series of underground sewers, essentially, And what they were doing to finally break the siege is actually sent special operations guys through these sewers to get into the rear area come up and essentially killed the Ukrainians from behind. It was brilliant. I'm not judging. I'm just here to call balls and strikes. I'm just saying as a military guy, that was pretty darn smart. And that broke the siege. So they were able to get past the initial villages. But then they ran into very concerted, very established barriers. So. So one of the things the Ukrainians had done wisely is they recognized they were probably going to eventually lose this ground. And so they built layers of defense, much like the Russians did last year, Mike.

The Russians had layers of defense which prevented the Ukrainian offensive for being successful. So the Ukrainians just flipped the script and did the same thing. So that's why the Russians now are facing more concerted, effective, well-organized defense that they're going to have to go through and break down layer by layers. So that's why I think you see right now the delay. Plus, the rethinking of what does the change of strategy to allow the Ukrainians more freedom to use weapons against the interior of Russia? Yeah, it's interesting.

If you look at maps, say you go back to the middle of 2023, and you look at a map of held territory, right, where both forces were. And then you look at a map from the end of May of this year, there hasn't been a lot of change, right? It's almost like World War I, right? Yeah. There's no changes in the front lines despite just a constant back and forth and the cost of this whole thing.

So to what degree at that point where we started providing weaponry, and obviously there's a lag time, it's a logistical process, but to what degree has the approval of U.S. weaponry, And as you pointed out at the beginning of this, the willingness of the current administration in the U.S. to say you can strike certain targets, has that, I mean, is it fair to say it's turned the tide or is that a little bit too optimistic? I think it's too optimistic. I think despite what the Biden administration said, Mike, there was no diminution of things. You point out correctly, I used to work as part of my covers in DOD is logistics. So I did learn kind of how logistics works. things were in the pipeline all along. And simply because the funding wasn't there didn't mean the Pentagon stopped sending stuff. It was already there.

So you've got to always take, besides Putin lying, the White House lies, especially Jake Sullivan. So Jake Sullivan was putting out this, oh, we need to funding for XYZ. No, no, no. A lot of the companies who work with DOD with the defense community will continue to manufacture things knowing eventually they're going to get paid, and that's what happened here.

So the weapons that were actually coming through, the pipeline were actually coming through. I'll tell you this. One of the things that did upset the logistics chain was the bridge falling in Baltimore. This is little known, but at least five military sea lift command ships, which had Ukrainian gear on them, was stuck in the port of Baltimore during that time. A large percentage, probably about 25 to 30 percent of U.S. military, military support for Ukraine, the heavy stuff is shipped from the port of Baltimore via the U.S. military C-LIP command there. So that did have an effect, but that effect had nothing to do with

budget. Okay. Well, you could argue, I'm not saying it was, but if it was a planned operation on the part of the FSB, that would be pretty damn clever. Yeah, it would. Again, not saying it was. Not saying it was. I'm just saying it shows it shows. It shows The importance, yeah, it shows how small the world is. It shows how the supply chain, whether it's for military gear or not, you know, can be impacted by just one event in one part of the globe. With what's happening now, I want to go back to the involvement of the U.S. in approving target packages and then expand that out to talk about training of Ukrainian personnel.

There's been a lot of talk about, you know, the French in particular, Emmanuel Macron, I don't know, he's been raising his testosterone levels of late. And he's talking about, you know, the importance of training Ukrainian personnel in Ukraine. And then of course that caused some pushback from Putin who said, well, that would mean their fair game, you know, from our targeting perspective. How important has been that involvement, right? Not just the logistics, not just the getting of resources to them, but actually working with the troops.

Ukrainian troops? So Macron's instincts are correct, although I think the policy will get French soldiers killed. There have been some French legionnaires there. They have been killed. This has been underreported, but they weren't there under the French flag. So, yeah, there were French Special Operations guys, but they weren't directed to be there. They were there because they wanted to be, just saying. So this is a change of policy.

Mike, one of the things that I've noticed, and I've been around since the 80s, and I remember as a young lieutenant watching us train rebel groups who were going to fight in Latin America at Fort Bragg. I remember going down to Fort Bragg in about 88, 86. Are you breaking news? We were training rebel groups. I'm shocked, Tony, that you would release that sort of information.

But I'm glad you did it on that. They heard the barracks next to me. What do you want me to say? So anyway, the idea is we did this. We did a similar program of training, as Pete Schuemaker, John Schuemaker used to call it around the ranch. They use the entire ranch of NATO to kind of allow all these countries to train Ukrainian forces. This is the problem.

It wasn't cohesive. So can you imagine the difference in training between Belgium and Greece? I mean, just the difference in culture alone gives you. you an outcome that's not compatible. So you train, and Mark, by the way, this was done by that brilliant chairman of the joint chiefs, Mark Millie. And I used to, Mark, Mark is not the smart, I know Mark, and Mark is, Mark's just not smart. So I'm just saying. But so this whole idea that this is what I call work, woke goes to war. They sent all these Ukrainians out. They trained them all over Europe. And then they put them back in Ukraine. It's like, hey, go fight. It's like, yeah, no, you need to have

unit cohesion and essentially a massing of forces in a way that's coordinated and effective. They didn't do that. They just said, hey, let's train everybody. So that's part of the reason you've seen massive amounts of money spent, but very little accomplished. So that's my point here. And so Macron's instincts are kind of correct. If you actually train the people in Ukraine in their home, in their home nation, you build confidence, you have unit cohesion, and you give senior leadership the ability

to do exercises to help hone the military operational skills. That's what was lacking before. So again, bright instincts, timing and policy, I don't know. No, you're right. I mean, you've got to have consistency in protocols and training, right? And it's critically important. And so as you pointed out, look, the military procedures in France compared to Greece or compared to wherever it may be, you can end up with units that have a different approach. It could be something as simple as breaching an entrance. Absolutely. That consistency is critically important.

Let's shift gears just slightly and talk about funding all of this. And at the G7, it looks like they've gone forward with this idea that they're not going to dip into the big pot that's marked frozen Russian assets, but they are going to dip into the pot that's marked interest earned on frozen Russian assets, which is close to three and a half, almost $4 billion annually. And it's very convoluted. But what the idea is, anyway, is the U.S. is going to provide a $50 billion loan to Ukraine and then get paid back from these funds, the interest, right?

Talk to me about that a little bit. And to what degree is that $50 billion going to make a significant difference in all of this? And then the question that I think a lot of people have, and we're going to get to that, and that'll kind of be how we wrap this up, because it's almost martini time, is, you know, what does victory look like from your perspective for Ukraine? But let's start with the assets and the funding and the frozen Russian cash. So two things I want to throw in a discussion, Mike, that has been way underreported. First, you know, the G7 is now in session.

There's a country I'm going to name that is the economy is growing faster than Germany. Germany has had some real headwinds, and Germany is seen as one of the powerhouses in Europe. So the country that's actually having an economy grow big faster than at a higher percentage of GDP, Russia. Russia has overcome and prevailed in all the sanctions. So I'm kind of laughing that they're going to have more sanctions like, really? They didn't work the first time. You actually hurt the European economy by doing it, so you want to do more? Okay.

And then secondly, Joe Biden sent a letter to Putin. Putin referred to it and basically was very dismissive of it. But you've got to ask yourself, Mike, why isn't the White House talked about this letter? I'm curious. I'm sure you are too. So I just wanted to throw those things in because in Europe, they're talking about this. We're not talking about it here. I don't know why.

But with that said, regarding the economic issues, theft of $300 billion would destroy the Western banking system. I swear to the goodness, that would destroy the reliability of the system. Most economic experts I've spoken to think it's a hugely bad idea and not legally sound. So this idea of just taking interest, I don't know if it's that much better because technically it's still kind of Russian money. And so I'm curious to see how they come up with this because at the time we're taping this, they're still trying to think through it.

So I don't know how that's supposed to work. I know that Trump and others have said, you know, well, we'll accept a loan. But I think it's one of those like loans that we're never going to see any repayment of just saying no matter what happens. So I just, I don't think. So the ultimate in-state, the ultimate in-state question, a cessation of hostilities is, I think, the best we can hope for at this point. We will not see Pramia retaken. We will not see Kharkiv. We will not see any of these areas.

Because unless NATO goes in directly, and I've said this from the first month of the war, Mike, unless there's an outside military force of significance, like troops, you will not push back the Russians. The Russians have a seven to one advantage, and they're not even trying. Now, they're not doing as well as they'd like. This is where the messaging is all off. The Russians are struggling just to get meters of land

And yet somehow, even though they're struggling, you think all of a sudden they're going to turn and invade Poland. That's not going to happen. So if I don't believe they can do more, but they do want to keep what they have. So the best I think we can hope for at this point is a partition that would look a lot like North and South Korea in the end. And I think that's where this is all going to go for the end state. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. And I don't disagree with it. I don't think there's any way that Putin gives Crimea back.

I don't see that. And I don't see Ukraine on its own pushing them out of the existing territory. So, you know, it's unfortunate that you have to say that because of the courage and the resilience of the Ukrainian people. But the White House, you know, John Kirby is still talking about saying victory is getting them out of every part of Ukraine. I mean, so the White House is still holding that narrative that they're going to have to leave all of Ukraine. and that's what victory is and that's what we're holding out for. But that's like Netanyahu's saying he's going to destroy all of Hamas, right? It's operationally, it's not feasible.

So where do you think this goes? How long do you think this runs for? And you're talking essentially about a negotiated settlement that at the end of the day, it sounds like from what you're saying, we all stand there and we look at it and go, okay, after all of this, we're kind of back to where we started before Putin invaded. So that's the issue. I'm a Reagan guy. We've talked about this a little before, Mike. And Reagan, I looked at Reagan's speech on the 40th anniversary of D-Day versus Biden's. And Biden copied a great deal of it just saying, not that I want to go down that path right now. But Reagan said in the end of his speech, he pointed out that, and he called out the Soviets as the evil empire, but he said, I'm willing to talk to you. I think you want to change. And I want to give you that opportunity. Biden did no such thing. He didn't. He left no door open. So at this point, I think we're in for continued combat operations. The next wonder weapon, Mike, the F-16s are going to put them in Romania. So that's another potential of the

war expanding, putting F-16s bombing Russia in Romania. There's some problems there. But we could probably talk about that another day, because that's the consideration on the table right now, because they know the moment they show up in Ukraine, they're going to be bombed. So it's kind of like you don't want to put F-16s. in Ukraine, they're going to be instantly destroyed. But putting them in a third country, Putin will say the same thing about that as he did about the French soldiers. They become combatants the moment they launch operations to attack Russia. So that's the dilemma.

The honest answer is I don't see this ending until November, and only if Trump wins. Okay. Well, but it's an interesting question. We're going to have to talk about that later because we're basically out of time. So I'm hoping that you will come back. And look, next time when you come back. Don't worry about getting, yeah, don't get so dressed up. It's just not necessary.

We're very casual. Very casual here at the situation. Listen. All right. Many thanks to Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer. He's president of Project Sentinel, and I very much appreciate the time. All right. Coming up, we'll examine China's unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan.

We're just going from one crisis to another, but that is what we do here at the situation report. and their potential implications for regional stability. Dimitri Alperovich, co-founder of Crowdstrike, you may have heard of that company, and author of World on the Brink, joins us to explain why an economic blockade of the island nation might just backfire on Xi Jinping's China.

I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. It's 2024. And, well, you would think that at this point in time, we'd be able to get our hands on anything, really, at any time. But that might not be the case when it comes to medical needs, and that's why we all need to be prepared. Let me introduce you to something that can help you be prepared in case the medicines you need

are hard to come by. And by the way, we've had record numbers of medication shortages already this year. Introducing the Jace case, Jace, J-A-A-A-S-E, the Jace case, it's your personalized emergency medication kit with five essential antibiotics, addressing common and deadly bacterial infections. Everyone should have life-saving medications on hand before an emergency. That's called being prepared. Getting a Jace case is simple. Look, I've done it, and honestly, it could not be any easier.

You just fill out the online form at Jace.com. From online evaluation to licensed pharmacy delivery, ongoing consultation and care, Jace handles it all. Visit jace.com and use code Mike at checkout for an exclusive discount on your order. Again, that's jase, j-a-s-a-s-E dot com and use code Mike. Don't wait until it's too late. Who cares about your poops? Ollie does.

That's why Ali's science-backed gut health lineup helps support your family's regularity. From daily probiotics to fiber gummies your kiddos will love. Find it all on ali.com. That's O-L-L-L-Y.com. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.

Chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more, can make me feel like a spectator in my own life. Botox, Onabachalinum toxin A prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with 14 or fewer headache days a month. It's the number one prescribed branded chronic migraine preventive treatment. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems

or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS-Lugherics disease, Myasthenia Gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.

Why wait? Ask your doctor. visit Botox Chronic Migraine.com or call 1-800-44 Botox to learn more. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. I want to turn our attention now to the Taiwan Strait, where last month China launched one of the largest military exercises in recent memory, nearly encircling Taiwan with dozens of warships and fighter jets. This exercise dubbed Joint Sword 2024A, oh, that's a catchy name,

and it kind of implies that there will be a 2024B, C, D, and well, you know the rest of the alphabet. Anyway, it was in response to the inauguration of Taiwanese president, Lai Ching-Tai, who Beijing sees as a pro-independence leader challenging its one-China policy and threatening regional stability. That's from China's viewpoint. The exercise has led many analysts to suspect that China might go for an economic blockade instead of a full-scale military invasion.

But my next guest argues that this approach is unlikely to succeed and would probably lead to war. Joining me now is the co-founder of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, an author of the book World on the Brink, How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. I'm very pleased to have Dmitri Alperovich on the show. Dmitri, thanks so much for joining us here on the Situation Report. So good to be with you. Thanks for having me.

Now, here's the top line question, and you run with it in any direction you want to. is Xi Jinping's China, are they going to invade in some fashion, Taiwan? Look, I think he wants to. I think he's determined to take Taiwan. Now, he would prefer to do it peacefully. As Klausvitz famously said, every aggressor wants to conquer their neighbors peacefully without opposition. But Xi Jinping also said that if he can do it peacefully, that he will use force.

And they've been preparing the military for 40-plus years to do this operational. which is very, very difficult to pull off. We should not underestimate the level of difficulty here. This would be, if they go for it, probably the most difficult operation ever conducted in military history to take the island of Taiwan. But he wants to do it. And I think he wants to do it in his lifetime and while he's still in power so he can get credit for it. He's very ego-driven. And of course, he's up for re-election in the Chinese Communist Party in 2027, very likely to get another five-year term. but in 2032, he'll be 79. And in their system, perhaps unlike our system, they don't tend to elect leaders into their 80s.

So I'm very worried that sort of period 28 through 32 is the window for him to potentially launch this invasion. Okay. I mean, for what it's worth, I think you're spot on in terms of this idea that he wants to do it while he's in charge. It's going to be his legacy. And I think, you know, people have talked about

when could this happen. And the timeline was always fairly well extended out into the future, but that's been compressed of late, I think. So you argue that, you know, if it's not a military invasion and it's an economic blockade, that the end result could still be the same, a full-out war. Yeah, I do not believe that Taiwan will surrender to an economic blockade for several reasons. First of all, there's no historical precedent in modern times for cities, much less countries, and Taiwan is a nation of 24 million people surrendering just because their economy is going south. You know, you could look at the siege of Leningrad,

doing World War II by the Nazis. 1.1 million people starve to death. The Soviets did not surrender. More recent times, the siege of Sarajevo in the 1990s, 65,000 casualties, but the city did not surrender. So this idea that the Taiwanese would surrender just because their economy is in trouble, particularly when they know the consequences, right? The Chinese make it very clear what they're going to do to the Taiwanese population once they're concrete. They're talking about re-education camps. And if the Taiwanese have any questions about what that means, all they have to do is look across the strait into what's happening in Xinjiang with the Uyghurs and say, you know what, that doesn't really sound that appealing. And

Taiwan, really, as I write in my book, is very self-sufficient. So they have ability to produce a lot of food. Now, it's not, you know, Wagu beef, it's not caviar. It's not going to be a luxurious diet, but they produce a lot of rice. They have a lot of fish in their lakes and river. They have a lot of vegetable and pineapple production. So they have enough to sustain themselves, even if it's not going to be the most wonderful diet in the world, but they're going to have enough calories. And it's also tropical climate. So even though they're highly dependent on energy imports, they're also not going to freeze to death, unlike, say, the Ukrainians, whose energy grid is being pummeled by the Russians on a daily basis. And they're not surrendering, of course.

So I just don't see any possibility for Taiwan to surrender. And then they have options to go offensively to counter blockade China because the top five Chinese ports are within striking distance of their missiles. And they can do the same thing to China that the China is doing to them. But, I mean, logistically speaking, from an operational perspective as well, you know, what's your assessment? I mean, if you're saying that Taiwan is doing this on their own, as a scenario, I'm not saying that's what would happen. But realistically, for Taiwan to hold out militarily against China, it doesn't seem to be in the cards. No, I think that if it's an invasion, not just a blockade, but an actual invasion of the island, Taiwan is going to need help. Now, realistically, they shouldn't need it because, as I mentioned, it's an island of 24 million people.

It's a very, very difficult place to invade. In fact, you know, last week was the 80th anniversary of D-Day, 160,000 allied forces cross English Channel. to land on Normandy on the beaches of Normandy. At the same time as we're planning that operation and executing it, the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the U.S. military were putting together another amphibious invasion plan, one which never took place called Operation Causeway, which was the plan to invade Formosa, as Taiwan was called at the time. And that plan called for 300,000 forces, right?

160,000 for Normandy, 300,000 forces for Taiwan. And that was deemed too risky and too dangerous by Roosevelt and Douglas MacArthur and others, that we never went through that. So 80 years ago, 300,000 troops needed to occupy an island that at the time had 6 million people on it and the Japanese occupation. Today, even harder than that. So very, very difficult to pull off. And realistically, if Taiwan had focused on their defenses, particularly over the last 20 years,

they could defend themselves, but they haven't. And thus, today, they do require support from us to actually defeat this invasion should it ever come. Yeah. And that's support. What's your assessment? say that it's a blockade. Let's go with that scenario first. It's an economic blockade of Taiwan. What role does the U.S., what will do, you know, the rest of the West, what do they play in this?

Or do they just stand by and see what happens? I don't think so because we are going to be immediately impacted. And the rest of the world is going to be impacted because Taiwan, of course, is the world's chips factory, right? So many of the semiconductors, both advanced and foundational, are being produced in Taiwan. they're absolutely a requirement for the world economy. Some of the estimates are that we would lose trillions of dollars in GDP if there's a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. And by the way, China would be heavily impacted as well. So the pressure on them from the rest of the world,

including the United States, and even domestically, every single day that this blockade goes by is going to be absolutely immense. And, you know, one of the things I argue is that Taiwan can do the one thing that China doesn't want it to do, which is declare independence. if this blockade is being instituted against them. And one of the things that the United States could do is threaten that we would recognize that independence and forever change the status quo in the Taiwan's rate

if China does not relent and does not abolish this blockade. So not only does Taiwan have enough resilience to withstand a blockade, but it also has a number of offensive options that could make life very, very difficult for China. Okay, let's imagine a scenario that's a bit of both, right? It's an economic blockade. There's some military action, of course,

the PLA will be involved in the blockade from the outset. So it will be a hybrid military and economic effort. Do you see the U.S.? I don't know this is a tough question, right? Because, hey, we don't know what's going to happen in November in terms of the election coming up in the U.S. But do you really see any U.S. administration, whether it's the Biden administration,

a possible Trump administration, coming to the aid militarily, I don't mean just having provided resources, but coming to the aid militarily, as we are doing in Ukraine for Taiwan. Well, Biden has now said on five occasions, including most recently last week, that he would send American troops to defend Taiwan. But it's a very tough call. I mean, war with China would be horrendous in terms of loss of life, in terms of devastation to our naval shipping, aviation. and, of course, the risk of a conflict with a nuclear power, right, and the risk they would escalate to a nuclear level.

So this is a tough call. It's a tough call for China as well. But this is what China is going to count on, right? China can take Taiwan, as we said, if the U.S. is not going to support it. But it can't count on that today, which is why they haven't launched it yet. And their goal is to increase as much leverage over us as possible, both in the military domain and the economic sphere, to try to deter us from intervening.

so that they can do this quickly and without a broader war. So what should the U.S. be doing at this stage of the game, right? If we want to avoid that type of confrontation, and we also want to ensure that we're not taking a massive hit to the economy here in the U.S. What should a U.S. administration be doing? So look, we want peace, but, you know, as President Reagan said, you want peace through strength. And the key thing here is not to fight a war with China,

No one wants. It will be absolutely devastating. And we could incur casualties on a daily level that exceed even what we saw in World War II. The key thing is to deter this from ever taking place, right? That is a Goldilocks scenario. And for that, we need to first and foremost restore the balance of power, military balance of power in the region. Because reality is we are much, much stronger than China on almost every level, right?

If you were to imagine a hypothetical scenario of having to fight China in a land war, let's say in Africa or sea battle in the Atlantic Ocean, it's not even a question that we would beat them handily. The problem is that in this specific scenario, in their backyard, they've built enough capabilities where it's now a question of could we actually beat them or not. And we need to reverse that and once again introduce enough anti-ship missile capabilities, drones, smart mines into that region to make sure that the Chinese fleet can never come across and carry probably what would be the biggest amphibious invas,

in history, carrying half a million, perhaps even more troops across that Taiwan Strait, we need to credibly threaten the sinking that fleet. Secondly, on the economic front, we need to increase our leverage over China and decrease the leverage of us. So we need to look at our dependencies on China and things like critical minerals, rare earths, lithium, cobalt, nickel, all these things that they're producing in mass quantities, not because they're mining so much of it, although they're doing some of that, but mostly because they're refining and processing in China.

We need to divest of that. We need to invest in friendly production and refining those minerals. And we increase our leverage over them to prevent them from gaining independence in areas like semiconductor production so that they would keep buying chips from Taiwan, from us, from Korea, Japan, and others. So we need to look at this very systematically across every area. How do we decrease their leverage? How do we increase ours? Okay.

So you're not arguing really for decoupling from the Chinese economy. You're arguing for de-risking. But I would say what you've just outlined. Yeah, I call this unidirectional entanglement, which is actually brining them closer to us, right, in certain areas, but at the same time, decoupling in one direction. I mean, I think the problem I see with that, I agree with you, right? I mean, I think we need to be more focused on strategically building out our military, our defense. But I think that requires a certain mindset in Washington that I'm not sure is there right now. I think it requires a different regulatory policy or viewpoint on regulations.

I mean, you look at mining, right? I mean, you won't cover a lithium deposit, but now you're facing 20 years of effort to get through regulatory red tape to see whether you can get it out of the ground, much less building refineries, right? So I think that requires a complete shift in mentality up on Capitol Hill. So while I agree with you that those are things that need to be done, I'm not sure that we're able to do it, particularly in this environment where politics are so dysfunctional right now. Yeah, you bring up a great point,

and certainly this is why I wrote World on the Brink is to highlight this issue. But most importantly, I want people to realize that we're in a new Cold War with China. This is not a competition. this is not a cooperative relationship. We're in a Cold War, one that actually is strikingly similar to the first Cold War on almost every level, except maybe the level of economic and independence we have with China. But on every other level, whether it's an arms race, a space race, it's spy war, global competition for supremacy, regional flashpoint.

It's remarkable how similar it is to the first Cold War. And if we can admit to ourselves publicly there, we're in a Cold War, which, by the way, China firmly believes that they're in a Cold War with us. So us simply saying that we're in a Cold War is not going to suddenly make them realize that this competition is taking place. They already know it. So the only people we're deluding by not acknowledging it is the American public. And the goal of actually saying it is that it gives you a lot of clarity, right? This debate, whether to do permanent reform to help build our own processing or refining capacity or mining capacity really becomes very stark when you realize you're in a Cold War and this is what's necessary for victory.

right? It becomes an existential struggle. And I think that's what is required for us to actually get some of these solutions in place. Yeah, I mean, I think we have, we've gotten better at focusing on the threats from the Chinese regime. And again, you know, you say things like that, people roll their eyes. We're not talking about the population, you know, wonderful culture, wonderful history, all that. We're talking about Xi Jinping's regime, right, the Chinese Communist Party. But I think we're doing a better job of at least to some degree highlighting the threats that they pose. We're talking more than we did even a handful of years ago about everything from their theft of intellectual property and the costs to the U.S. economy from that to their buildup of their military in the South China Sea. So there's

more of a spotlight. I don't know that that translates into action. And going back to that question of if they do move on Taiwan in some fashion, what's the U.S. response, right? Because the rest of the world is going to be watching the U.S. to see what happens. And if we sit on our hands, that's exactly what the rest of the world will do. And the next thing you know, you know, Taiwan is essentially Hong Kong. And eventually there's no democracy left. Yeah, I still think there is this debate happening, particularly in Washington, D.C., you know, the administration announced a few weeks ago, major tariffs on Chinese EVs, batteries,

semiconductors, critical minerals. And there was a lot of pushback of like, why are we doing this? We want to transition to green energy. We want cheap of ease, even if they destroy our automotive sector. Well, you would have no such debate if you got clarity on the fact that we're in a cold war and why would you turn over your energy security to your main adversary, right? That becomes preposterous. But because we have not convinced the American public and because we have not made it very clear

from a policy perspective that we're in a cold war, you're still having these discussions of how far do you go, do you do anything at all? And the other thing here is the timeline. I argue in the book that we have potentially as little as four years before he may launch this invasion. So we have to do things now to increase our leverage today. All right. Dimitri, we're just about out of time. I would love to have you come back because this issue clearly isn't going away. But I would like to ask you this. And then we can talk about it when you come back. And hopefully we can look at your timeline. if you had to make an assessment, if you had to say, all right, this is when it's going to happen,

looking into the future. Give me a more specific time frame than, say, you know, five or six years or she's tenure. So in the book, I start out the prologue with a fictitious, but I think very realistic scenario of invasion. And it's set in November 13, 2028. So how about that specificity? Yeah, I'm going to hold you to that. And, you know, the situation report is going to, it's still going to be on in 2028. So, you know, you and I will be talked about this for some time.

Listen to me, Trey Alperovich, I apologize. Author of World on the Brink, How America Can Be China in the Race for the 21st Century. Thank you very much for joining us. This has been fascinating. Thanks for having me, Mike. True, of course. See you soon. All right. Now, that was cheery, isn't it?

Just going from one global crisis to another. In a moment, we'll explore how Trendor-Iragua, a notorious gang from Venezuela, has taken root in American cities, bringing with it a wave of crime and violence. Stay tuned as we dive into the gang's origins, and its alarming spread across the U.S. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task,

unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website to marketing, to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz, and all birds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into... Sign up for your $1 per month trial at Shopify.com slash special offer. Spring is the season everyone refreshes everything except their blinds.

People put it off because they think it's complicated. But at blinds.com, we've spent 30 years proving it's not. Right now, you can save big during the spring Cyber Monday sale. Whether you want to DIY it or have a pro to handle everything from measure to install, we've got you. Free samples, real design experts, and zero pressure. Just help when you need it. Shop up to 50% off site wide. Huge savings on special buys, plus a free professional measure now during the Spring Cyber Monday sale.

Rules and restrictions apply. Welcome back. All right, let me see. We've talked about the ongoing war in Eastern Europe. We've talked about a possible world-shaking war between China and the U.S. I know. Let's talk about deadly street gangs in the U.S. That should cheer you up. I'm talking about a deadly criminal gang,

now appearing in major cities and towns across the country. U.S. officials report that Trenner Aragua, a gang originating from Venezuela, is now operating within the United States. To understand the roots of this organization, Trenna, We need to look back at their origins. The gang was formed inside a Venezuelan prison known as Tokoron, where it used the jail as a base of operations.

And when I say they used it as a base of operations, what I mean is they had total control of it. When it was finally recaptured by Venezuelan security personnel, they found that prisoners were able to roam freely inside the penitentiary. Well, that's because they had complete control of it. And the prison had essentially become more of a hotel than a jail facility. The facilities actually included a pool, a nightclub, a baseball field, and even a zoo.

Yeah, because that's what you want. You're hankering. When you're in prison, you're hankering for a zoo. From there, the group expanded its criminal activities throughout Venezuela and beyond, leveraging the country's turmoil to grow its power and influence. Today, Trendor-Iragua has become a formidable transnational organization, posing a significant threat not only to Venezuela and other South American countries, but now, as it turns out, to communities across the U.S.

Currently, the scale of the gang's operations in the U.S. is unclear. However, crimes attributed to its members are on the rise, and elected officials are increasingly concerned about how far their influence stretches. An FBI special agent in El Paso explained to CNN that the gang follows migration routes across South America, setting up criminal operations in the various countries along the way, and then they continue to follow the migration routes north right into the United States. Despite numerous arrests, law enforcement is struggling to understand just how many Trenzoragua members are already here in the U.S. In Texas alone, law enforcement documents and prosecutors' complaints show that more than 70 cases involve individuals affiliated with the gang,

with Customs and Border Patrol identifying at least 58 gang members from the beginning of fiscal year 2023 through May of this year. According to a CNN report, Venezuelan immigrants in Florida and other states are witnessing similar criminal activities to those that they fled from in Venezuela. Oh, that's nice. So they flee Venezuela hoping to escape the crime and violence, and it just follows them up here to the U.S. And we seem to allow that to happen. The group is also establishing itself further north in the U.S. Back in February, we talked about the rise in crime associated with Venezuelan migrant arrival. in New York City.

A significant number of those crimes are believed to be associated with Trenner-Iragua. Just last week, an illegal immigrant who shot two NYPD officers in the Big Apple was reported to have tattoos linked to the gang. Now, in April, three suspects were arrested in Louisiana in connection with a Trenor-Iraga sex trafficking operation that spans Texas, Virginia, New Jersey, and Florida. If those allegations prove true, well, it indicates that the gang is now a lot of the government. operating trafficking rings in the U.S., similar to their trafficking operations in South America. Amid the upticking crime, Republican lawmakers, led by Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Representative Anna Maria Salazar, urged President Biden to designate Trenragua as a transnational criminal organization in order to halt its growth. The lawmakers warned, quote,

if left unchecked, the gang will unleash an unprecedented reign of terror, mirroring the devastation that it's caused in Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru, end quote. Look, this isn't rocket science, right? If it was rocket science, I wouldn't be talking about it. The first and most important job of the federal government and state and local government is the safety and security of the citizens. Now, to do that, you need a few things. You need a secure and controlled border

so that you know who's entering the country. You need federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies and departments that are well-funded, well-trained and well-supported by everyone from town and city councils to the White House. And you need a justice system that is serious, fair-minded, and oriented towards prosecuting crime and demonstrating that there are actual consequences for criminal behavior. There, that's your recipe. Combine those ingredients, and you get public security.

It's not rocket science. Well, that's all the time we have for the PDB Situation Report. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me. at PDB at thefirstTV.com. And of course, as you know, to listen to the podcast of this show ad-free, well, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. It's really that simple. I'm Mike Baker.

And until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here from MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. not just for celebrities, so do like I did and have one of your assistants assistants

assistants switch you to MintMobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com.