The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | November 15th, 2025: China’s Coming Digital Invasion of Taiwan & Tehran’s Looming Crisis

Episode Date: November 15, 2025

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: China’s New Play for Taiwan: Beijing may not invade at all. Instead, new analysis suggests the Chinese Communist Party could throttle Taiwan by cutting off its energy lifelines—slowly, silently, and without firing a shot. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery joins us to walk through the scenario. Iran’s Man-Made Water Collapse: Reservoirs are drying up, taps are running low, and experts are even whispering about the possibility of evacuating Tehran. Iran’s leadership is now facing a crisis of its own making—one that could shake the regime to its core. Shahin Gobadi of the National Council of Resistance of Iran is here to break it down. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief BUBS Naturals: Live Better Longer with BUBS Naturals. For A limited time get 20% Off your entire order with code PDB at https://Bubsnaturals.com  Debt Relief Advocates: Learn what debt reduction you may qualify for. Go online and visit https://DRA.com  DeleteMe: Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to https://joindeleteme.com/BRIEF and use promocode BRIEF at checkout. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Beijing's most likely move against Taiwan isn't an amphibious assault, but a slow, silent chokehold on the island's energy lifelines. Retired rear Admiral Mark Montgomery joins us to break down that scenario. Later in the show, a crisis of the regime's own making is now threatening the mullahs hold on Iran, with reservoirs on empty and talk. of evacuating Tehran, the country is edging toward water collapse. Shaheen Bobati from the National Council of Resistance of Iran will help us break it down. But first, today's situation reports spotlight. We've spent a lot of time here on the show talking about China's potential invasion of Taiwan,

but new research shows Beijing may not need an invasion to break the island. Analysts are now warning that China could cripple Taiwan in a matter of weeks through a cyber-enabled energy blockade, cutting off the imported liquefied natural gas that provides nearly half of Taiwan's electricity. Now, that would force Taipei into a brutal choice, power for hospitals, or power for the semiconductor plants that keep the global economy running. Wargame results suggest that U.S. is seriously underestimating China's ability to squeeze Taiwan without firing a shot. joining us to break this down is retired rear admiral mark montgomery senior director of foundation for the defensive democracies center on cyber and technology innovation which does not fit easily on a business

guard sir thank you very much for joining us here today on the situation report well thank you for having me today absolutely well let's let's start at sort of the 30,000 foot level um you you've got a very interesting um analysis of what that takeover of Taiwan could look like. If you could, in a nutshell, I know there's a lot to unpack, but if you could, give our viewers a sense of what you're thinking. So look, I spent a number of years in the Navy as a carrier strike commander or is the J-3, your head of operations at Indo-Paycom, thinking about the most dangerous scenario,

that cross-strait invasion you hear about. And I do think the U.S. military studies that well and that drives what we buy. But I've increasingly become sure that the actual way that the Chinese Communist Party is going to try to coerce Taiwan is the most likely scenario. And that is a cyber-enabled economic warfare campaign executed against Taiwan using diplomatic economic and administrative or lawfare kind of tools enhanced by cyber and influence operations. So that's what I've been looking at. Well, so, I mean, again, we've looked at this issue in the past on the situation report, and I will be honest, it's always been sort of that narrow focus, which is, okay, how do you conduct that invasion? You know, what does a blockade look like, you know, dropping troops in on the island?

So this is a completely different approach, it seems. You're exactly right. It's, this, look, this is the approach where Xi gets Taiwan, he breaks their societal resilience. So the president liar, whoever the leader of Taiwan is, bends the knee and says, look, I'll enter some negotiate. Once that happens, once they bend the knee a little, China's world class and just twisting them in the position. We've seen that in Hong Kong. We've seen that in Macau. We've seen that elsewhere.

And look, it's not hard to do. That's what scared me about it. We looked at financial services, communications, energy sectors. The energy sector is highly vulnerable. Taiwan has an energy grid. They just got rid of all their nuclear power plants. So their energy grid is 50% LNG, liquefied natural gas. It all is imported.

Their coal is also imported. The oil is imported. But that LNG comes on one tank or a day. And Taiwan only has weeks of stowage capacity. So if the Chinese Communist Party can figure out through diplomatic, military, economic tools to slow down 15 of these LNG ships over a two-week period, Taiwan will be faced with this. They'll lose 50% of their grid. And then they'll be faced with a tough decision.

Do I turn off power to my homes and my hospitals, my schools, my military? Or do I turn off power to my industrial manufacturing, TSMC, Taiwan, semiconductor, manufacturer, UMC, their big legacy corporation, and the thousands of companies that are secondary tertiary supply chain for that. My gut reaction is they're going to turn off, in every war game we play with the Taiwan's, they turn off that industrial capacity and they make their problem, our problem. Yeah. And I, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we've done a particularly good job of on-shoring any of that production capability from Taiwan. That's, and I, correct me, to the U.S. or even elsewhere.

And I, we haven't, and I don't think we can realistically. I mean, we onshore three, with the TSM investment and our investment through the Chips Act in a plant in Arizona, we might onshore four or five percent of our dependency on the high-end chips, you know, for $50 billion. You know, you can imagine on-shoring all the legacy and high-end chip capacity from Taiwan would be hundreds of billions, if not more. investment in the United States that would take years, and I'm not sure we have the workforce to even do the work once you build those plants, the technical workforce yet. So it would be a

decades-type solution. Taiwan's, we just got to treat them like a critical partner. Now, there's a good side to this exercising I do, which is we begin to identify how do you mitigate this risk? Because this is a big risk I just described. And there's things we can do in the maritime area, the energy area and the cyber area to reduce this risk to something that's manageable and executable by a president. Yeah, just on the surface, it sounds like a very heavy lift. And I want to talk to you about what that entails in detail. You mentioned, I believe, that you said that they stepped away, the Taiwanese, I mean, they stepped away from nuclear power.

Why? So after Fukushima, the big accident in Japan, at that point, they were around 20% of their grid was nuclear power in three big reactor complexes, maybe six nuclear reactors. They, after Fukushima, decided, look, we're equally at risk here from earthquakes, typhoon, tsunamis. We're going to also shut down, we're going to shut down our plans. and it became a passion play for the DPP, the party, the current party of power. So, weirdly, it's this party that is both very much opposed to China, but also very pro and green and environmental. And so they shut down these power plants.

I think one set of the power plants are probably beyond hope. They were old. They weren't being modernized and they're probably gone. But two of them are probably restorable. They can restore 10 or 12% of the grid, give them some flexibility. But even that would take years, three, four years to do because you have to order the reactor fuel and the things years ahead of time. And they have not done that. I think they're thinking about that.

And that will be part of the solution. But that's not the short term. The very short term, one to two to three year solution is going to have to involve the United States. Yeah. Now, when we talk about timelines, And that always seems to pop up in any conversation involving Xi Jinping in Taiwan. Any sense of a time frame? I mean, everyone's trying to read Xi's mind, of course, but have you seen anything that,

from your perspective, says, oh, this could happen within the next three years? This could happen within, or what does that look like? So, you know, Xi kind of has written in the past, my military must. be ready in 2027. That kind of rhymed very closely with what Admiral Phil Davidson, who was in no paycom a few years after me, when he briefed Congress, said that our capability was on, this is in 2021, he said, our capability was kind of linear like this. Chinese was exponentially catching it, and those paths would cross around 2027. In other words, that's when they could execute one. So everyone became fixated on 2027. But one of the things that he didn't say out loud, I know he

believed this, is that everyone gets a vote on this. And the U.S. voted. We have really done some smart stuff since Russia invaded Ukraine. Ironically, Russia invading Ukraine taught us to go fix our munitions problem in the Pacific. And we're actually in much better shape. So in munitions in the Pacific because of what we learned after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And Japan has really increased its spending since Russia invaded Ukraine. Taiwan's really increased its spending. Australia's increased its spending. So these key partners that are part of this, we've actually become better. And at the same time, China had a post-COVID burp in their economy. And so I actually think those lines crossed in like 2030 or 2031.

So if you ask me, what's a kinetic one going to happen? I'd say not before 2030, 2031. But of course, that makes the cyber-enabled economic warfare more likely in the near term. So this one, I could easily see kicking off in 2028. That's the next time there's an election in January to February, time frame of 2028, there's a Taiwan election. So the build up to that and the execution of that, you can see the Chinese do this to kind of teach Taiwan a lesson. All right. Yeah, that's right around the corner. There's a lot of questions here to go through, Admiral, but I want to be mindful of our time. If you could stay right there, we've got to take a quick break and then we'll be right back with more from Admiral Montgomery here on the Situation Report. So please.

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It's trusted by over 100,000 folks, and it's even been named the best collagen, of 2024 by Health.com. And also, look, don't forget, they've got killer electrolytes and MCT creamer, and again, all clean ingredients. So, live better, longer. That sounds good, doesn't it? For a limited time only, our listeners are getting 20% off at Bubbs Naturals simply by using code PDB at checkout. So just head on over to Bubbs. That's BUBS, Bubs natures.com, and use code PDB, and you're all set. And I tell you what, after you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. favor, tell them the PDB sent you. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is retired for Admiral Mark Montgomery, Senior Director of Foundation for the Defense of Democracy Center

on Cyber and Technology Innovation. Sir, thank you very much for sticking around. We were talking just in the last segment about the timeline. For Xi Jinping, we're a little bit off topic, but it's still in the same general arena. What's your perspective on his hold on power? And the regimes, not that she's, but the regime's perspective on bringing Taiwan back into the fold. I mean, does Xi Jinping, I guess what I'm looking for is your perspective on whether Xi Jinping has a support

of his regime in the idea of what could be a fairly chaotic event. That's a very question. I do think he does have support. And I think this is a widely held belief among the Chinese Communist Party leadership that Taiwan needs to be brought back in, that Taiwan needs to be fully unified back into mainland China in their mind. And that's a given. They may not be as committed as Xi as to it happening while he is Secretary General and, you know, chairman, president of the country, but they are committed to it. But his timeline is very much driven by while I'm this leader. And that, you know, most of us thought, this is a, you know, aging, you know, Chinese leader who had a rough childhood, smoked.

you know, how much long is he going to live? Of course, there was this whole morbid discussion he had with Putin about a month ago in China on the World War II ceremony where the two were walking along on a hot mic, they talked about living to 150 by harvesting organs. And we know the Chinese, we suspect that they harvest organs from Uyghurs, you know, that are in their camps, concentration camps in Western China. So yes, he may live a little longer than we expect, but I, I think he's got to do this cyber-aid economic warfare campaign. If he's going to do it, I think it's in the next couple of years. As I said, 2028's a good year.

He will have the support of the rest of the leadership for that. Now, that doesn't mean they're thrilled with his arresting, prosecution, jailing, killing of other senior party leaders. But on this specific issue of Taiwan, he has their support. Okay. Yeah, that conversation that you referenced, it was like watching. Dr. Evil and Lex Neuthor, you know, talking. So it was, we just needed someone to do this on that hot mic.

Yeah. So, yeah, God forbid they should both live to 150. But let's talk about mitigating the risk of this scenario, right? What can be done in the relative short term? Because if we're talking about 2028, I mean, that is literally right around the corner. Yeah. So, as I said, I bucketed in three years in maritime, we can do convoy operations. I think if the U.S. Navy says we're going to escort in these LNG ships, that would back

the Chinese off because it would be very escalatory to, like, sink a U.S. Navy ship escorting in a liquefied natural gas ship into Taiwan port. To do that, we should just practice it. And by the way, that's deterrence. When you practice it and show the Chinese, hey, we're willing to do this. We practice it. We practice it with the Taiwan's Navy. We practice it with the Japanese Navy.

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And that, I think, how it's back off the Chinese. The second area is the LNG. And this is the one where that first one was kind of U.S. heavy. This next one is Taiwan heavy. They've got to buy extra stowage. They've got to buy their own LNG tankers. They've got to diversify who provides them their LNG, really maximize the United States. So as the United States begins to build a big LNG field in Alaska, the Taiwanese should be investing in it and they are.

But they really have to realign themselves. And then, of course, you mentioned nuclear power. they should consider restarting those two nuclear power plants. So there's all these energy things they can do to make themselves more secure. And then I give you a third area, cyber influence operations. China's going hard at them, just like they're going hard at us, except, you know, I believe they'll actually go to the next step with Taiwan, which is the kind of malware they've been put in systems that are going to activate.

So they've got to be doing a much more aggressive job, sanitizing their, critical infrastructure, driving Chinese malicious activity out of their systems, and then also teaching their people about misinformation from China. China is running long-term campaigns against them. So that whole bucket of cyber influence operations. So three different areas, three different opportunities. It involves the U.S. and Taiwan, principally, but also Japan and Australia. Okay. I would say that the first two sound... like, okay, we should develop a plan, implement these things. The last one, the hardening the cyber defenses and, you know, combating PLA or Chinese regime

influence campaigns, you would assume those should be well underway. What's your assessment of the cyber defenses at this stage of the game? Both, you know, for the U.S., not just to keep it on island in Taiwan, but where are we? You remember, I think it was 2015 when Xi Jinping stood next to President Obama and said, all right, we're not going to engage in any cyber shenanigans. You caught us. We're going to stop. And, of course, I don't think they did.

But what's your assessment about where we stand in cybersecurity? That's good. I'm glad you brought that up because part of this is our ability to respond to a crisis. Can we move, can we do our military mobility, move all our military stuff through the United States and then overseas? And China has absolutely played an aggressive campaign to make that not happen. It's called Volt Typhoon as an advanced persistent threat team. And here's what they do.

They put malware or access these so they can come back at a later time to disrupt or destroy. American critical infrastructure and they concentrated on FBI Director Ray, former FBI Director Ray said they concentrated on our plane, our aviation, our rail, our maritime ports, our energy systems, our financial services, the things that allow military mobility and economic prosperity. And I'll give you a great example. If you're moving a tank from Texas to our base in Texas, Fort Hood to Korea, it gets on a rail car. On Fort Hood, it's beautiful. They've got two power systems, two calm systems, two water systems. It's a NOAA's arc of critical infrastructure well protected. And when that train leaves the base, it enters like Uncle Rufus's rural Rail Collective

number 55. You know, and Uncle Rufus thinks he's getting paid $50,000 a year to keep that track clear of dead animals. But it's also got a cyber network running on it. And I don't know that Uncle Rufus and Aunt May there really know how to protect. I know they don't know how to protect it. And you know, the Chinese know this. And in case the Chinese were, confused, we literally publish the 20,000 miles of strategic rail network, the 69 strategic airfields, and the 17 strategic sea lift ports that we move our forces through. So China knows where to attack. They know where we're vulnerable, and they've absolutely ceded that infrastructure with their malware or their accesses. And the American response has been kind of a shrug,

even after he said it, and I just give you one last thought. If the Chinese have done the same thing with like a thousand backpacks full of semtex, you know, explosive, and hung them in all that infrastructure. And then the FBI director said, look what we found. I think the United States public would have become unglued. I mean, this is a, that's a clear, you know, military, that's something that requires some kind of military response. But in the cyber world, we kind shrugged our shoulders and moved on. So you ask how vulnerable we are, I say very vulnerable. Yeah. It's funny how, you know, what's old is new again, right? During World War II, The Nazis sent saboteurs into the U.S., and there was a team specifically targeting Grand Central,

because what they wanted to do was disrupt rail operations moving troops for overseas deployment. And so they were busy doing that. Now, obviously, it's cyber attacks on our infrastructure. But I'm very glad you're talking about this because I think if the general, public knew how aggressive the Chinese regime and the Russians and others who have the capabilities are in poking and prodding and mapping out our critical infrastructure. I think they probably wouldn't sleep at night. One would think. And you're right to mention Russia. They do the same thing. And in fact, they're doing this mostly in Europe to affect NATO's military mobility. So yeah, we're seeing this

from both of our two main adversaries, China and Russia. So it does make me nervous. And by the way Taiwan gets the same treatment. Soda is up from China. So does Japan. So, you know, we're going to be vulnerable all through that supply chain. Yeah. Well, I think now, sir, that we've completely bummed out our viewers. Unfortunately, we have run out of time. My wife always says, you know, you should finish on a happy note, right? You're always, you're always bringing people down with these conversations, but it's important, right? People have to understand, you know, that as much as we'd like to think, it's not necessarily a community of nations where we're all holding hands,

but the Taiwan issue, I think because of its, I don't want to say immediacy in the sense of next month, but, you know, if we're looking at 2028, even 2030, that in geopolitical terms is immediate. Sir, I hope that you'll come on back when we give you a shout, because we got a lot more questions for you. Well, thank you very much. Here's one quick, happy thought. Taiwan is a beautiful,

flourishing democracy, practicing capitalism, doing great, and it's that way because the United States created the conditions for that success. So what we're talking about is protecting a success, and I think that's a positive way to leave it. Look at that. The Admiral, glass half full, kind of guy.

Well, next time when you come on, we'll do a medley of show tunes. But no, I think it's a great point, which is why it's important for us to be talking about this because of its importance to U.S. national security and to regional stability. Sir, Admiral Mark Montgomery, thank you again for joining us here on the Situation Report. I look forward to the next time. All right. Coming up next, I have to correct one thing. I don't think the Admiral and I will be doing a medley of showtunes the next time he's on. But I do hope he's on again because he's got a lot of insight and experience that he can bring to us.

All right, coming up next, Iran's rulers are facing a crisis of their own making as reservoirs run dry and talk of evacuating the capital. Evacuating Tehran grows louder. We'll speak to Shahingobadi, a member of Iran's parliament in exile about that when we come back. Please, stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about personal finances, right? So let me ask you a question. Do you owe $10,000 or more in credit card debt or personal loan? Well, let me tell you something. With credit card debt at all-time highs, the folks over at debt relief advocates are notifying consumers of debt relief now being made available and designed to aid consumers with out-of-control credit card debt. So for those who qualify and enroll for this relief program,

well, many only have to pay back a fraction of what they owe. Look, it's not a bankruptcy or a debt consolidation loan. This is a relief program that, frankly, credit card companies would rather you not know about, right? It could injure you. debt troubles and it could save you a lot of money. Consumers owning at least $10,000 in credit card debt or personal loans can now take advantage of this debt relief as the cost of living continues to rise. So to learn what debt reduction you make while you simply go online and visit dora.com. DRA.com. Once again, that's dora.com. Debt relief advocates. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. Iran is facing a crisis that could

The hood shake the regime to its core, and it's one entirely of its own making. Decades of mismanagement, and the worst drought in 60 years have pushed the country toward what experts call water bankruptcy. Reservoirs supplying Tecrot, home to 10 million people, are at just 11 percent capacity. In Mashad, it's even worse, with some dams below 3%. Now, the government has quietly begun rationing water, and President Massoud Boshchekian has even floated the possibility of evacuating parts of the capital. Officials are downplaying the danger, but the reality on the ground is far more dire and public anger is rising. Joining us to break down what this means for the regime is Shaheen Gobadi, a member of Iran's parliament in exile,

and the spokesman for the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Sir, thank you very much for joining us here on the Situation Report. Oh, thanks for having you, Mike. You know it's an honor to be your show. Well, thank you very much, and I hope you feel that way at the end of our conversation. No, let's talk about this because I don't think, I don't think this is an easy one for people to get their heads around. When you talk about potentially having to evacuate a city, the size of Tehran, some 10 million people, because they're out of water. Talk to me about this problem in general. Well, I think this is one aspect of the calamity and catastrophe that this regime has imposed on the winning people.

And this is not because of environmental issues. Iran has always been a semi-arid country. But look, in the last 30-some years, the regime has constructed, or in the middle of constructing 650 dams in a country which is semi-arid. And it does not make any sense for anyone who knows anything about environmental issues. And the reason for this is that this is all controlled by IRGC, which is the Revolution Guard Corps, which is the main entity that basically keeps the regime at bay. So basically what has happened is that a vast part of the Iranian economy has been handed over to IRGC, and they have found this whole issue of constructing dams to be very lucrative,

even exporting waters in various forms to be very lucrative. to be very lucrative, even constructing companies like petrochemical factories, like steel mills, in areas which are already short on water. So you can see what we have is a culmination or actually confluence of mismanagement, massive institutional corruption, and basically misguided policies of this regime.

And I think one acknowledgement by the speak of the parliament just yesterday is very telling. He said explicitly that 15 years ago, the regime's, you know, a strategic study institution did a massive study and they established that lack of water is the main shortcoming of Iran in foreseeable future. And that was 15 years ago. And he said, we did nothing about this. So you are talking about the regime, which has not only neglected the most basic needs

of the union people, quite contrary, has devoted all of his resources. to pursuing, you know, obtaining nuclear weapons, to propping up proxy groups and repressing Iranian people. And today, what's the situation? Everybody already talks about Tehran, which is quite understandable. This is a capital, and you said 10 million, which is a conservative estimate. If you consider suburbs of Tehran,

we are talking about Somerville 12 to even as far as 15 million people. But this is not only restricted to Tehran. A lot of major cities in Iran face the same situation today. I mean, all of Iran, I mean, are facing the same situation like Shiraz, Isfahan, and so many other big cities. So this is a major, major national calamity, which is all results of this regime's policies. Yeah. And what are you hearing about the disruptions to daily life? I mean, what are some of the stories coming out in terms of how this is impacting people's lives?

You know, basically in some districts of Tehran, people are not having waters for many hours, particularly at night toward the morning hours. And this obviously makes the life miserable, which has already been miserable for Iranians. As you know, they also suffer from power outages on many hours of the day, and then you compound this with a faltering economy and they runaway inflation. By that, I mean, somewhere from 40 to 60 percent annually and on some most basic estables as high as 80%, and you're talking about a country which its currency has never been such a low value that is facing today.

It has lost about 60% of its value since last year. So if you add all of this, you can see that this has basically made the population very, very restive. And I think just waiting for a spark to pour in the streets again and see massive uprising. I see reports by people in mid-age. even who are supposed to be middle class, you know, like university people, like engineers, who say that we simply cannot continue like this. And I've seen reports after reports about this. And that's obviously what makes the regime very panicky because they realize that the way things are going

and other uprising is simply inevitable. Is it true that President Poschkin has floated the concept of moving the capital, of possibly evacuating to Iran? Yes, he said that in a public address, and then apparently they took it off from his website and the news was not allowed to be spread, but he said it. But obviously, Eber knows that this is simply not a very, very practical idea.

Where would you transfer and move, you know, 10 to 15 million people? And where are the facilities? And where would you take the capital to? So I think basically, Mike, what you are witnessing and what we are witnessing is a regime which has run its course, which has reached its basically final phase, which has run out of its strategic assets. And this is the domestic situation. You see the situation internationally, you see the situation originally.

So basically they have run their course and every aspect you see it becomes a dead end and a dead end and a dead end. The economy is like this, water is like this, electricity is like this. And with no solution inside. The reason is no solution is that everything has become political. Everything is intertwined with the very existence of this regime, and the regime is a total, total impasse. They either have to make huge strategic decisions to change course, which would mean very quickly

end of this regime or continue like this and facing more crisis from all directions. What, from your perspective, what would cause the citizens, right, to finally say enough's enough? I mean, can they get to that point? I mean, it's often been discussed, right? And we've talked about protests on the streets of Tehran or around the country. And there have been. But you could, and this is not the right way to. to put it, I'm sure, but it usually comes for not, right? There's no end result, right? You just end up with the Mullis in charge and the IRGC maintaining control. I know this is just speculative and, you know, to the nth degree,

but what changes the dynamic there eventually? Well, I think, Mike, given the audience that watches your very good podcast and listens to it, They fully realized that overthrowing a regime like the one in Tehran is a culmination of a process, especially when it is done by domestic resistance by indigenous forces like National Council of Resistance of Iran and its main member organization, the People's Majoahidium Organization of Iran and its resistance units. And when you're talking about uprising, obviously, it's a process. But I think it's very helpful to look at things in the perspective. In the last seven years, there have been three major nationwide uprisings in Iran.

Now, obviously, they have been suppressed. But if you look at each of them, the next one has been bigger, more pervasive, more inclusive, more demanding, including, you know, more strata of the society, including more generations. In 2022, you saw even Gen Zs got involved as well as in the middle age and some elderly. and people from all over the country. Obviously, Iran is a huge country. We have people from 300 cities in all 31 provinces involved in uprising.

Obviously, the regime responded swiftly, heavy-handedly, killing hundreds, and sometimes upwards to 1,500, no matter of few days, arrest in tens of thousands. But it has not stopped people from coming back. The frequency and recurrence is very telling that the dissent is becoming deprooted. And I think what's also important

important is that the regime is facing a growing organized resistance. And I think that's very important because obviously at the end of the day, you need an organized resistance on the ground that will lead the people to the ultimate result of overthrowing the regime, and that's exactly what is happening. The testament to that is that more and more people are now being arrested on political charges, more and more of them are on death. So today, as we speak, there are 17 people who are on death. death row basically for their affiliation with the, as I said, MECA, and they are as young

as 22 and as old as 60 something. So in that sense, we are moving in that direction. People of Iran has stated time and again that they want to get into this regime. Obviously the regime has ruled with a very, very brutal force, but at the same time, if we look at what has happened since last year, the other pillars that this regime has survived have also been severely beaten. I'm talking about the regime's support for proxy groups, and that has been severely beaten and weakened since last year.

I think the best case was the overthrow Assad regime, which was the lynchpin of the regime's regional strategy, and you saw what happened in a nuclear issue. So basically, we are coming to a head where all the pillars that this regime relied on for decades and decades are coming to an end. And as you know, the overthrow of a regime like this comes very quickly. You know, dictators always have this perception that they're in power forever until the final hour, and then they are gone. And you've seen this time and again in history.

And I think we are heading to that direction. So there is no question about people's desire for change, but obviously other factors can help to expedite or to slow down the process. And I think now more and more factors are coming in, which indicate we are coming to the finale in the foreseeable future. Thank you. Yeah. You know, I want to revisit the water crisis a little bit more. And then I want to branch out, if I could, to talk a little bit about where Iran's military sits now after the 12-day war with Israel and their efforts to rebuild their capabilities. but we have to take a quick break, sir. So if you'll, please, don't go anywhere.

Stay right where you are. We'll be back with more from Shiaen Gobadi with the National Council of Resistance of Iran right after this quick break, so please stick around. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill. Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot. Good news. Bring your AT&T or T Mobile bill to Verizon

and we'll give you a better deal. So get away from that unfortunate phone bill and get to Verizon. Run, ride, canoe. Whatever it takes, we'll be here. Bring your AT&T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal on the best network on the best surprise. That's Verizon. Best network based on root metrics, best overall mobile network performance U.S. second half 2025. All rights reserved. It must provide a recent consumer mobile bill in the name of the person who gave me the deal. Additional terms, conditions and restrictions apply.

Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a second of your time to talk about security, all right? And specifically, let me talk about online security. And let me tell you about a great company out there called Delete Me that's working hard to keep you safe on. online. Now, Delete Me makes it easy, quick, and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. Delete Me sends your regular personalized privacy report showing what info they found, where they found it, and what they've removed. With an active online presence, look, I care deeply. I'm like everybody else, right? I care deeply about protecting my personal data. It's important. And I know that Delete Me helps us stay ahead of threats like Identification.

theft and doxing by removing info from data broker sites. But this is important stuff. Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for Delete Me. You can now go at a special discount for our listeners just by going to Delete me. You get 20% off when you go to join delete me.com slash brief and use promo code brief at checkout. Again, the only way to get that 20% off, just go to Join Deleteme.com slash brief and enter code brief at checkout. One Once again, join deleteme.com slash brief, code brief. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. Joining me once again is Shahingobadi of the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

Sir, thank you very much for staying with us. We've been talking about, among other things, we've been talking about this looming water disaster, this crisis in Iran. And is there a short-term. fix for this? I mean, obviously, if the heavens open up and, you know, rain starts falling, that's one solution. But if the regime isn't willing to open its doors to international community assistance and help, what are the short-term solutions that the regime's looking at to try to prevent what could be a massive disaster? I simply do not see any short-term solutions, to be quite honest because what we have today is a culmination of decades and decades of mismanagement,

massive institutionalized corruption, misguided policies, which has basically plundered all the necessary assets and resources that you have to have to answer people's basic needs. And this has not been there. And this has been quite contrary. What I mean is that, look, they have built petrochemical factories, steel mill factories, in places which normally doesn't make any sense. I mean, you need water resources for these kind of factories. And instead of that, they have built them in areas which are already semi-arid. And what does it do? It takes away a lot of people's water resources and use them for these factories, which, by the way,

are all owned by IRGC. and by the way, a lot of its products are exported outside of Iran to finance IRGC and who pays the price, obviously the evening people. So basically what you're witnessing, as I said, is the consequence of years and years of mismanagement and a very, very clear policy that this regime has pursued. So, in short of something rather miraculous, I cannot see how they can pull out of this. Maybe there could be a short-term, I don't know, a solution, but this is. This is going to be a very, very persevering crisis.

And now, as I said, if you add this with the power crisis and you also add this with the falter economy, it also comes down to which direction this regime is willing to take. Is it willing to give up the policies that has led to where we are today? And what has been the policies? Repressing at home, pursuing the nuclear weapons program at all costs. And when you're talking about nuclear weapons program, please bear in mind. that according to a lot of estimates, the Iranian economy has lost somewhere from $1.5 trillion with a T,

upwards to $2 trillion, I mean, because of all the problems that this issue has created for the Iranian economy and all the, as I said, shortcomings and sanctions, which are all results of the regime's insistence to get the nuclear weapons, the Iranian economy has simply become bankrupt, as simple as this. So it is not really the issue of water. As I said, if you put the issue of the economy, if you put the issue of power and all sorts of all the issues together, you can see that the regime is facing basically a confluence of various crises at the same time from various directions.

So if there can be a solution for one of them, the question is what would happen to the others and how could the others be resolved? And I think that's what makes the prospects very, very precarious for the regime. And what I'm saying is all based on very simple basic facts. I want to switch gears just slightly. Following the 12-day war with Israel and, of course, the U.S. stepped in to target and strike key nuclear facilities, What's your assessment of an Iranian military capability? How successful were those strikes in degrading the capabilities of the Iranian military and also setting back the nuclear program?

Well, obviously, how far the nuclear program was set back is a big question. There are many, many unanswered questions, and everybody is assessing. and depending which assessment one listens, there are all sorts of laid assessment, but obviously no doubt that that was a setback, and that's not a matter of dispute. But one thing is also very clear. The regime has shown no intention or interest in giving up on this project.

There's no intention of even slowing down. They're hell-bent in pursuing to get nuclear weapons and continuing this project. And they have said this very, very explicitly. I mean, the regime's supreme leader, Ali Khan, has said it time and again that he views this as a strategic issue and he's not going to give this up. And also, I think another important aspect is the regime's missiles program. And they're basically attempt to manufacture as much as possible. missiles and they have said they will not only try to replenish those that they lost,

they try to intensify this because they see this as their only basically weapon of survival. So far as the intention of this regime is concerned, and devoting resources, going back to the previous question of water crisis and other crises, there's no intention by the regime to slow down, there's no intention to give up, there's no intention to rethink thinking. They know know that their survival depends on continuing the same path. And Ali Khamene is totally, totally in unfirm belief that this is the only way for the survival because he realizes the moment he retreats in one of these issues, it would start avalancheing and it will start roll balling and the regime will start to, you know, being dissolved

very, very quickly and quite expeditiously. So he knows that to hold the regime together, he has no other choice. So, so far as the regime is concerned, they will continue, as I said, going full force to replenish the missiles. They lost or they used and also on the nuclear issue. There's no sign that there will be a change of direction. All you have to do, I think, is to read the report that the IAEA just put out yesterday and they will discuss in the coming up board of direct. there's a IAA session coming up pretty soon in Vienna, that the IAA says that they have not seen

any sign of cooperation by the regime and there are many, many, many, lenient questions for them. Yeah, it's remarkable that, I mean, I think it was probably unwarranted confidence that somehow that the strikes during the course of that 12-day war were going to either deter the Iranian regime from continuing their weapons programs or, Or, you know, in the immediate aftermath there was talk about we obliterated, you know, their programs. Clearly, that wasn't the case. But there seems to have been no real deterrent effect from that. And satellite imagery and other reporting indicates that there has been increased activity at, you know, nuclear facility sites,

but also in terms of construction of or reconstruction of their missile program. And so I think it's fascinating, right, that, you know, it had no real impact on, on the direction of the Iranian regime, of the Mullahs and the IRGC. Despite the, you know, despite the effectiveness, look, there was a great deal of destruction. They took out a number of missile launchers, very important, destroyed a number of missile storage sites, clearly did some damage to the nuclear facilities, but ultimately at the end of the day, it really didn't move the dial on where that regime is focused. I totally agree with you, Mark, and I think that brings us to the big question that this good podcast should address. Look, the Iran challenge still remains a big challenge.

Iran has been an enigma for the West as of all and for U.S. administration after administration, regardless of Democrats or Republicans. And we have maintained as the main resistance movement, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, actually Madame Marianne Rajavi, who is the present elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, said 20 some years ago that the solution is neither appeasement. obviously ever realizes that, you know, placating the world was a very, very destructive policy. But we said at the time that foreign war is not also a solution.

The solution is a regime change by the UNI people and the organized resistance. And now this is more tangible than ever. And I think that's time to bring this into calculus. You see, the biggest missing elements on the policy about Iran throughout the whole last four decades was this factor of Iranian people and the organized resistance.

The regime pushed for this narrative. They succeeded to great extent, but I think it's time to reevaluate this policy. And that's exactly what Mike is going to be the issue of a major convention coming up in DC, this coming Saturday. That for the first time, in a unique landmark event, more than 1,000 Iranian academics, activists, from all of the United States will come in Washington to discuss about

the feasibility of a regime change in Iran and also as important, I think, is the transition. It basically, the guarantee that there would be smooth and the fact that there's a viable alternative out there in the National Council of Iran

that the regime did not want people to hear about. So I think you have touched upon a very important issue. I think the crux of the matter is that, that, okay, if a peace isn't work, if military strikes is not the ultimate solution, how could we deal with the regime, which is hell bent on continuing his nefarious conduct,

which is not limited, obviously, inside Iran, but not only the region, but throughout the world. And I think it's time to seriously believe and see that the regime change from within Iran is feasible, it's practical, and Iranian people are ready for it, and they haven't organized existence. And I think that is a game changer.

And that will change the paradigm when it comes to Iran and Iran policy. Yeah, I would say that there's no mid-or long-term peace and stability in the region as long as you've got this regime in place. I mean, they've shown that. And they're not embarrassed to talk about it, Whether, you know, through their, their resourcing and funding and draining and support to their various proxies, you know, whether it's chasing down and targeting dissidents overseas that are speaking out, you know, there's, so how that develops, there's always been this hope in the U.S. and in, you know, the Western world that somehow, you know, the citizens of Iran will rise up because that's the ideal solution at the end of the day.

But the fact is, I won't be shifted off this position. You're never going to get long-term piece of stability in that region, as long as the Mullets and the RGC are in control because it's not what they perceive to be their primary objective or in their best interest. So, sir, I will climb down off my soapbox now, by the way. But listen, we're out of time. I hope you'll come back and join us again on the Situation Report, because we very much appreciate your experience or your insight.

Shaheen Kobadi of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Listen, thank you for being. Well, thank you for having me, Mike. It has been my pleasure, and I'm sure you will have many, many good podcasts to come, and keep at it. And I'm sure the issue of Iran will come back and again and again and again. and just I think I totally agree with what you just said

that there's not going to be any peace and stability in the region so far as you have this regime but I think the new idea is a regime change by the unionists I should emphasize for the Iranians which does not require which on the grounds from the U.S. or any foreign country or money or weapons

is very much looms on the horizon and I think this is the new message that we have. Yeah, yeah. Well, I look forward to the next conversation sir. Thank you again. Thank you. Well, take care. That is all the time. There's a lot. There's a lot there. We're talking about an incredibly complex problem. You know, the 20 minutes that we have on the situation report, it doesn't do it justice for sure, but it's important and it's important to get out there and talk about it and think about it. Look, that's all the time we've got for this edition of the

Situation Report. I know you can hear the sad trombone in the background, can't you? If you have any questions or comments, maybe even a humorous anecdote, maybe a limerick. I don't know if people do limericks anymore. Just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. You know what happens? Once a month, a select team of our PDB executives, along with our very talented interns, we all gather together and we choose the best comments and questions and we smush them together into an episode that we call Ask Me Anything. It's true. So keep your cards and letters coming. To listen to the podcast of the show ad-free, you can do that, just become a premium member of the president's Brief by visiting PDB Premium.com. And if you get the chance, head on over to YouTube and

check out and subscribe to our YouTube channel. That's at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. And until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.