The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | November 29th, 2025: The Ukraine Peace Talks With Ryan McBeth & A Terror Label for the Muslim Brotherhood

Episode Date: November 29, 2025

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: Washington’s Ukraine peace proposal takes a sharp turn. The 28-point framework has been trimmed to 19 points—and U.S. officials followed the Geneva talks with rare shuttle diplomacy in Abu Dhabi. Ryan McBeth joins us to explain what this means for the battlefield and the negotiating table. President Trump prepares to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. We’ll look at how this decision could reshape U.S. strategy across the Middle East. Mariam Wahba from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies joins us to break it down. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on gold TriTails Premium Beef: Feed your family and your legacy. Grab your Black Friday gift before it’s gone! Visit https://trybeef.com/pdb Pick up Ryan McBeth’s “NORAD Christmas Sweater”: https://www.bunkerbranding.com/products/a-very-norad-christmas-sweater-3-0 Follow Ryan McBeth: https://x.com/RyanMcbeth Follow Mariam Wahba: https://x.com/themariamwahba Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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First up, real movement on the Ukraine peace push, at least reportedly. Washington's plan is now trimmed to 19 points, and that's, if I'm not mistaken, nine points fewer than the original 28-point peace plan, and U.S. officials follow the Geneva talks with rare shuttle diplomacy in Abu Dhabi. Good friend of the show, Ryan Macbeth, joins us to break it all down. Later in the show, President Trump prepares to label the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization Now, that's a move that could reshape U.S. policy across the Middle East. Merriam Waba, from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joins us to explain all of that.

But first, today's situation report, spotlight. Diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine accelerated on multiple fronts just this week. In Geneva, U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials spent days refining Washington's proposed peace framework, which started as a 28-point plan and then was narrowed to 19 core provisions covering security guarantees, future force limits, and the steps needed to restore Ukrainian sovereignty. But even after the Geneva talks wrapped, U.S. officials kept moving. In a bit of shell diplomacy, senior American envoys flew to Abu Dhabi for face-to-face discussions with Russian counterparts, testing whether Moscow is willing to engage on any of those 19 points.

Here's my bet. There not. For more on this, let me bring in a friend of the show, Ryan Macbeth. Ryan is an open source intelligence analyst than you can check out his YouTube channel, and I suggest you do because it's fascinating, at Ryan Macbeth programming. Ryan, thank you very much for being here today. And thank you for looking so festive, might I add. Thank you so much.

I figure if you have to go to a Christmas party, why not wear a NORAD shirt? that way people will come up and talk to you because it's got jets on the front. Got a F-18, Canadian F-18 and American F-22 protecting the sky jointly like we have since 1958. You can find out of bunker branding.com. Let's start with where we are with this Ukraine peace plan. Started out as a 28-point plan, right? And now it's reportedly a 19-point plan. But tell us what you know about where this currently sits.

That's an excellent question. Right now, it seems like Ukraine has rejected this peace plan, mainly because Zelensky has a constituency of his own, and he has to sell this to his people. And there are a number of things in this particular plan that the people might not want to vote for. For example, changing their constitution to guarantee that they won't join NATO. Ukraine is a democracy, and people have to vote for that. as for this particular 28 point plan, I believe it is dead in the water. There has been some rumors that it might have been written by Russia. We don't quite know exactly who wrote this plan as of now,

but as of now it certainly seems like this particular plan is dead in the water, although you could consider a starting point for moving forward with a peace plan. Yeah, I mean, I think that is probably where people are landing at this point, right? They started, it's very interesting. Prior to the White House announcing, look at this, we got a 28-point peace plan, and it seems to include most of the Kremlin's demands that they've had and haven't strayed from over the past couple of years. Prior to that, it seemed like we were getting a lot of tough talk coming out of the White House about additional sanctions. They did sanctioned Ross Neft and Luke Goyle, which I thought was just, I mean, about time, should have done that back when this thing. started to have a maximum impact on Putin. So it looked like we were kind of going in that direction.

Maximum pressure on Putin. Let's try to get him to feel enough pain to get him to the negotiating table. And then suddenly, here comes this 28 point piece plan. And it does seem heavily weighted in favor of the Kremlin. And then shortly thereafter, and by the way, President Trump saying things like, well, you know, he could fight his little heart out if he doesn't want to accept this plan, meaning Zelensky. And then suddenly, you know, everyone's meeting, Ukrainians and the U.S. envoys are meeting in Geneva. They hammer out a 19-point peace plan,

which is a revision of the original one. So they lost nine points. We don't know all the details or specifics of this. And now apparently they're discussing it in Abu Dhabi with Russian envoys present. So it just seemed like, not that it's unusual for the white. to, you know, be a little bit back and forth, it does seem like a real turnabout here in a very

short period of time. It does. And I think what the United States is afraid of is perhaps being too effective. When you think about it, when this war ends, it will end one day. We need to make sure that Russia has a soft landing. And that might sound crazy to someone from Ukraine. Like, why shouldn't we punish Russia? Why shouldn't we demand that they pay reparations? Well, we did this, we tried this in Germany after World War I, and that's what led directly to World War II. So I think that the fear in the United States is that if Russia collapses, it could happen in 2027, 2028, if they collapse economically. And that means if we are fighting China over Taiwan in 27 or 2028, and all of a sudden Russia collapses, we're going to deal with

maybe hundreds of warlords who each have their own little nuclear fiefdom. Now granted, Russia, Moscow still has the permissive action links to launch those weapons, but at the same time, you don't necessarily want a warlord to have a nuclear weapon. So if we can get this war over with now and then make sure Russia has that soft economic landing,

reintroducing them into the global economic marketplace, well, that means that perhaps Russia won't collapse, we won't have warlord fiefdoms that we have to then go in and stabilize what we're trying to fight China. It's not fair, but I understand what the administration is trying to do here. Yeah, yeah. Well, first of all, ladies and gentlemen, you heard it here on the situation report. You don't want a warlord to have a nuclear weapon. And I think that's that sound advice from Ryan. And hopefully the White House is listening. But listen, here's what I'm going to say to that. I don't disagree. We don't want, you don't want to cover.

collapse in Russia. That does not serve U.S. national security interests, right? You don't want a failed state that holds a very large nuclear arsenal. And so I think most people could get on board with that idea. The reasoning behind not pushing hard on the Russian energy sector, though, I think I've gotten on board with the idea that at the very beginning of this, invasion. The Biden administration didn't want to exert sanctions to any degree on the energy sector in Russia. And I'm of the mind now that this is going to show how cynical I am, that they didn't want to do that because gas prices were high back then. And I don't think they wanted the pain from the voters in the U.S. of rising gas prices at the pump when suddenly Russian oil was taken

off the global market. And I would argue that that same political calculus exists today with the current administration. That's just the nature of politics. And nobody wants a pissed off voter going to the pump and saying, God damn it, why are the prices increasing at the pump? You know, why should I care about, you know, the Ukrainians? So, So I think there's a little more at play. Again, I don't disagree with your analysis by any means. I think you're right. They don't want a failed state.

But I think there's also some politics involved here. You could be right about that. I think the one difference is that President Biden was not of the mindset of increasing oil drilling in the U.S. I believe they restricted offshore drilling and, you know, drilling in the Arctic was off limits. But now if President Trump in charge, one advantage of stunning. from that is drill baby drill. So we have the handcuffs off our oil companies who can drill for shale. Remember, I believe the United States is an oil exporter now. A lot of that's because of shale. And if we can open up other fields, we can pump our own oil. And, you know, that is critical

for energy independence. You are absolutely right that oil is fungible, right? It's a commodity. If Russia is selling oil to China, that means there's less oil that the United States can sell to China, we can puff more oil, we can explore more fields. That is one big difference. I don't believe President Biden wanted to do that because of the environmental constituency. Yeah. No, I think it's probably, okay, let's show America what compromise looks like. I think your points are correct.

I think my point's correct, too. So we'll just put them all in the same pot and say, look how smart we are. Let's move from this peace plan because you're right. your opening comment, which is nobody really knows, and, you know, it's very unclear where this thing is heading. Let's talk about what's actually happening on the battlefield right now. Well, it's been pretty much the same way it's been for the past couple of the past year or so, where neither side is really making any gains. Russia is slowly making incremental gains, the city of Percross.

I believe that was recently taken by Russia, although there's some in Ukraine who says they haven't taken. it. The city is basically a shell at this point, but it was a major rail hub for Ukraine to push rail cars full of ammunition or troops or supplies to different sectors. So the loss of Petrosk is bad. It's not horrible, but this slow Russian incremental gain took about a year to execute. So that kind of tells you where the Russian army is right now. They really only can. capable of making these marginal, slow, incremental gains, and any kind of breakthrough or even pushing troops through a breakthrough would be extremely difficult for Russia to execute. And yet they seem to continue their focus on drone and missile barrages, right?

I mean, you know, that seems to be almost a nightly occurrence now. And it is taking a toll. What do you know about the impact? because we've talked about the impact of the Ukrainian strikes inside Russia on Russian energy infrastructure. But what do you know about the success of what the Russians are doing in Ukraine targeting their energy infrastructure? Well, they have targeted their energy infrastructure. Blackouts are almost nightly. Ukraine has responded by installing giant banks of batteries that can kind of take over when some of their infrastructure is hit. Russian drones, they actually did something that nobody's ever really done in the history of warfare,

and that is used drones to actually hold ground, or at least deny ground. So these guys were flying first-person view drones on fiber optic cables, that way they can't be jammed into Percross and just kind of laying them on the ground and waiting, laying them on the ground to save battery, and waiting for Ukrainian units to pass. when they see those Ukrainian units, they activate their motors, lift the drones off, and try to strike those Ukrainian units. So they were actually able to do ISR, intelligence and reliance reconnaissance,

the city on the ground in the grass, waiting, and actually deny areas. And that's something that nobody's ever done before. They've always said you need infantry to hold ground. Well, Russia was able to figure out a way to use drones to deny ground, which is not the same as hold. but close enough to make resupply very, very difficult for the Ukrainians. Okay. That is fascinating.

Yeah, I think, you know, the one of the takeaways is so many, but one of the key takeaways here is just how drone warfare has changed strategic thinking for this and also for any future conflicts. And I suspect it will be future conflicts. Ryan, if you'll stay right where you are, we've got to take a quick break. I've got a ton more questions to ask you. And we'll be right back here on the Situation Report with more from Ryan McBeth in just a moment. Stick around.

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Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. And joining me once again is Ryan Macbeth. You can check him out on YouTube, and I suggest you do, at Ryan McBeth's programming. Now, Ryan, before we get started, I want to kind of shift gears from Ukraine here in just a moment. But before we do, our phone lines have been jammed during that first segment with people wanting to know where they can get themselves one of those festive Christmas sweaters that you're wearing. You can grab that at bunker branding.com. I really appreciate you asking. Well, yeah, and I'm not asking anyway because I'm hoping I'll get a free one in the mail.

That's out of a question. Come on. Look, here's the next question. And I know this is a little bit of a left turn from what we were talking about, battlefield realities. And then prior to that, the peace plan that may or may not be in the works. What have you heard in terms of credible intelligence? So I know this is a bit of a left turn.

incredible intelligence about Chinese PLA personnel officers working side by side with Russia or there as observers. So we know that Russia has provided airborne units and training to the Chinese. So there is that relationship between China and their officers. I haven't necessarily heard any credible intelligence that there are Chinese officers in Russia. or inoccupied Ukraine. But I would not be surprised if there were. It makes a lot of sense for Chinese observers to come and look at how Russia is doing business. The United States partners with NATO and Poland, where they have, I believe it's called J-TAC, which is a school where Ukrainians go and teach in, I believe, it's Gadansk, Poland, outside

of this old air base. and the United States is learning actively from Ukrainian soldiers. It would not be surprising if Chinese officers are there with Russian officers embedded learning how they fight. I'm not saying they are fighting. I certainly doubt that right either case because China doesn't want any casualties, but it would only make sense for China to learn firsthand how a new war can evolve over time. Yeah.

Yeah, I think that does make sense. and I agree with that they would draw the line at actually having their troops in combat positions. But from a, you know, from a learning perspective, it's hard to imagine they would give up on that opportunity. Right. So I just wanted to throw that at you. Let's go to a completely different direction and land over in the Middle East. Recently, you know, we learned that the U.S. will be selling F-35s to the South. What can you tell us about that? So this deal came directly from President Trump. I believe it was 24 or 28 F-35s proposed for sale.

Now, there's a lot that has to happen before we actually sell an F-35. It has to get through armed services. There's a number of committees that have to grade like this, transfer of technology. The Saudis have to agree to establish, send their pilots to an American school to learn how to fly the F-35. There's a lot that has to happen, and we have to manufacture them. And that takes a while to do. There's other countries that are in line for the F-35. We also don't know what model it's going to be.

Could it be the A model that the Air Force uses? Is it the B model that the Marines use? So what model would the Saudis purchase? So anything like this is probably going to be about four years off. But kind of the neat thing here is that it gives the Saudis a level of capability that really only Israel has. Israel was essentially able to walk into Iran, fly past three countries, overfly three countries that didn't even know they were there, walk right into Iran, destroy all of their surfsterer missile systems,

and then essentially act with impunity. And if we give the Saudis that capability as well, then you have Israel possibly attacking from the east, which is a capability that they've already proven they have, and the Saudis capable of attacking from the south. And if we can get Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates on board with the F-35 program, that's even more possible vectors for attack. So it kind of lets Iran know that they need to cut their shenanigans off or else they're going to be surrounded by stealth fighters that can walk into their country

any time they want. And the down. To a sale like this, you already mentioned the technology transfer issue, but, you know, what about the downside? So there is a possibility that this technology could leak through the way the Saudis do business. A lot of Saudi pilots are actually contractors, some of whom are from Pakistan. Pakistan has a relationship with China. Now it's certainly possible we could write into a contract that only Saudi pilots or contractors that have been bent through the United States are all in. fly, only Saudi maintainers or perhaps American contractors from American companies are allowed

to work on these jets. And also, you have Israel who has very capable F-35 jets, the F-35 I, which is a little bit different than American F-35 jets. It kind of has their own technology baked in. They won't be getting similar jets, and theoretically those jets will be less capable. I can imagine Israel isn't totally crazy about this deal because if the Saudis ever decide to turn on Israel, that is a capability. Israel doesn't necessarily want to fight, even if those jets will be theoretically less capable or capable of different things than Israeli F-35s. This is adding another layer to the mix here that Saudi Arabia already has a lot of American tech. They fly the F-15 S.A. They fly the F-15 S.A. They fly the

the British tornado. They fly the Eurofighter, I believe, as well, which is anglomerate of several countries. So there already is a path for technology to leak into China. We just have to have appropriate control measures on board to make sure that doesn't happen or at least reduce the likelihood or severity if it does. Have you seen anything? I would just thinking while you were talking, whether I've seen anything specifically about Israeli pushing. back to the news of this sale? I have seen articles in Israeli newspapers that this is a bad idea, but what else of the Israeli is going to say? The idea of having a theoretical adversary with a similar weapon system might, I can easily understand how that could

frighten anyone in Israel, but the path here is if we can get Saudi Arabia into an alliance, or at least since you went accord with Israel, then you have two countries that are theoretically allies. I can call me crazy, but I think of that scene in Predator where Dutch shook hands with the CIA officer, right? And they showed their muscles. And you imagine Israel's power and Saudi Arabia's power together.

That is a huge counter against Iran. Yeah, well done you for citing Predator. I don't think that happens often enough. Hey, Ryan, what, just talking about the present time, the moment that we're currently in, right? What haven't I asked you about that should be from your perspective on our radar? Venezuela, absolutely Venezuela. I think it is likely that we're probably going to see some sort of action of Venezuela within the next 10 days or so, at least after Thanksgiving. So the 10 days between Thanksgiving or 10 days after Thanksgiving,

I think we are likely to see some sort of military action in Venezuela. Okay. Well, yes, I just wrote that down. I'm going to have you back on. If it does happen, if it doesn't happen, I'm solving you back on. So, yeah, there you go. I don't be wrong. The rumor mill is saying that a lot of leave was canceled for after Thanksgiving.

So they don't tend to do. do that without good reason. And there was that recent video made from seven Democratic senators saying, hey, you must obey lawful orders, which I believe was a sideways hint at some sort of action happening in Venezuela fairly soon. Yeah, I'd love to, if we had more time, I'd love to talk to you about that video. Very interesting. There's a little bit of hysteria going on there in terms of, you know, once again, right? I mean, I would argue that in that video, those individuals, Mark Kelly and Elisa Slotkin and some of the others, you know, they do what the, the people on the left or the Democrats, however you want to refer to them. There's a lot of smart

people, right? But they, this, this constant clutching of the pearls in terms of what could happen. Oh my God, he could issue an illegal order. And then, you know, someone asked Senator Slotkin, well, do you know of any? No, I don't know of any. But you know what he could do it. And so they're just, you know, they're doing this as they've been doing for quite. some time and of course the media eats it up but i would like to have you on to kind of dissect that for a segment because it is it is fascinating and uh but other than other than that um yeah the build up in venezuela out off the coast and in the Caribbean uh does seem to portensive it is interesting also and then and then i'll let you go that it is interesting that we're hearing these rumblings

about possible direct talks with nicholas maduro uh between trump and maduro uh possible uh feelers being put out by Maduro or those close to him about, well, he could be willing to leave, perhaps, under the right circumstances. So whether it's direct action or whether we see shortly after Thanksgiving some movement in terms of the regime just folding, Maduro deciding on his own to leave to save his skin or those around him deciding it's time for him to go, I think you're absolutely right to put Venezuela on our radar with a very short term. And finally, Ryan, I'm fascinated by this. my wife always says I have way too much schlock in my offices and so you your background is always fascinating to me if you could highlight one thing behind you right now you could highlight one

thing what would it be probably be this this turkish flag right here uh the the turkish general staff sent me that flag in that patch and Turkey has been a vital member of NATO. They have essentially the second largest army in NATO, and they have been our partners for a very long time. That's probably one of the proudest things, the Turkish General staff watches my YouTube channel. And so I want to say,

I actually don't know how to say thank you in Turkish, but I would want to say thank you to those gentlemen for setting me their patch. you know he's yeah i i think somebody over there deserves a norad uh christmas sweater you know this was a big deal over there are some christians in turkey i don't know uh i don't know how many how what the population breaks out is but uh if there are any christians on the general staff will be more than happy to send them a shirt set them along uh hey ryan macbeth as always man thank you uh we love having you on the show for your insight your expertise um and uh i hope

you'll come back here very shortly. Thank you so much for inviting me. Take care of that. All right. Coming up next, well, here we go. A major shift in U.S. policy. The Trump administration prepares to designate the Muslim Brotherhood, a terrorist group, which some nations in the Middle East have done for quite some time. Merriam Waba of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, she'll join us to break it all down. Yeah, Mike Baker here with a message for my friends over try-tails beef. All right, here's the deal. Triedales premium beef. A terrific fifth-generation Texas ranching family is running their biggest Black Friday event of the year. Now look, you got to check out Triedails. I'm serious. They're all about raising cattle the right way and delivering delicious

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Subscribe now at Bloomberg. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. President Trump is moving forward with a plan to formally designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization. One of the most sweeping steps any U.S. administration is considered toward that group. The proposal reflects longstanding concerns inside the intelligence and counterterrorism communities that the Brotherhood isn't just a political movement, but a sprawling network whose branches have supported or inspired violent offshoot.

across the Middle East. Now, a designation would trigger sanctions, restrict fundraising, and reshape how Washington might deal with governments that still tolerate Brotherhood-linked factions. Miriam Waba is a research analyst with a Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where she closely tracks the activities and influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, and she's been gracious enough to join us right now on the Situation Report. Thanks very much for being here. Thanks for having me. Oh, absolutely. Listen, let's start for the benefit of our viewers. If you could give us a brief summary or rundown or explanation of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Absolutely, and it's a great place to start. So the Muslim Brotherhood, simply put, is a transnational Islamist organization that has its roots in the Middle East, particularly Egypt, which is my area of focus. And the Brotherhood started by this teacher, Hassan El Benna, in 1928. who was reacting to a couple of things. One, he was living in a time where the Ottoman Empire had just fell. So he was dealing with this existential crisis of Islam, which had been such a big part of culture and politics, is no longer here. And two, the British imperialist presence in Egypt. And he really saw this as an opportunity for him to lead the effort to bring back Islam into society.

and he did it by beginning this group that saw itself as the arbiter of culture and politics in Islamic societies. And that's where our story begins. The organization has really changed in the last century that it's existed. What we're seeing now is offshoots, branches and franchises of the Muslim Brotherhood. Some are violent actors, which, some of which have been designated by the United States government. A prime example of this is Hamas. And some are relatively peaceful participation.

in parliamentary elections and the countries that host them and so on and so forth. And that's really the 30,000 foot view of the Muslim Brotherhood. So when it was started, it was perceived or the concept was more than just a way to politically play a role, right? So, I mean, it sounds like because you referenced cultural. So, you know, how broad was that focus? What really neat Brotherhood so seductive at the beginning is the fact that it filled so many gaps in Egyptian culture where the state was lacking. I grew up in Egypt so I can speak to this a little bit anecdotally.

Obviously not in the early 1920, 80s and 20s, but more recently looking at how the Brotherhood operates in Egypt or operated before it became banned, they provided things like tutoring lessons and hospital visits and early childhood education. These are places where Egypt and other Arab states tend to lack resource or lack the will to provide for its citizens. And the Muslim Brotherhood is savvy enough of an organization that they understand that to win the hearts and minds of a population like that and to eventually win elections, you have to provide people, citizens with the basic needs that they see that they need on a day-in-day-out basis. And we see this strategy playing out across the Middle East. There's a reason that Hamas won in Gaza, the last elections that were held. There's a reason that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt after the Arab Spring won the first democratically. Democratically is a loose term here.

But the first time Egypt held a democratic election, the Muslim Brotherhood won. And I think there's something to learn from that, right? Why is an Islamist violent jihadi organization continuing to win elections across the Middle East? Well, I think, yeah, as you were describing sort of that concept of the Brotherhood at the early stages, looking to provide support and assistance to the people, all I could think about was Hamas and the way that they used that as a controlling element in Gaza. Now, is it the case that Hamas was established as the Muslim Brotherhood representative of the Palestinian people? Is that a a way to say that or no? Right on the money. The Muslim Brotherhood chapters manifest a couple of different ways. And Hamas is what we describe as a Muslim Brotherhood chapter.

In the last two decades, particularly, what we've seen the Brotherhood lean into an Excel is that they're able to kind of create offshoots and branches that meet different goals. So we have things like Huss, which is a offshoot, a militant, militarized offshoot. shoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. But you also have things like the Muslim Brotherhood presence in Morocco, which is actually quite liberal and quite open to things like normalization with Israel. And they're really using this tactic, the fact that they're so malleable and liquid, if you'll allow me to use that word, to infiltrate different countries, different governments

and different systems all over the Middle East. But so let me answer your question more succinctly here. Yes, Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood chapter in Gaza. Okay, so, I mean, it's fascinating because, so you've got this organization that started, and you've got, as you've said, chapters, you know, various groups, representative organizations, with what appear to be varying philosophy, some violent, some, as you pointed out, Morocco, more liberal. at the end of the day, do they, is that because they're adapting to that particular environment that they're in, but they still have the same, you know, long view or ideology? Or are they legitimately fundamentally different, but just grouped under this massive Muslim Brotherhood umbrella?

I'm not sure if that question makes sense or not. No, it does. I think it's the point that the EO that we saw, the executive order from last night in the White House we saw, it's the point that it's really trying to address. So we saw the EO mentioned three specific branches, the Egyptian branch, so the Jordanian branch and the Lebanese branch. And what you're hitting on here is really something fascinating within the brotherhood and those who study it can kind of sit there and trace the lineage. There's two part, this is a two part answer. So you're asking if, if the group is ideological. But the short answer is yes. Everything that we know about how the Brotherhood operates, how its branches and offshoots and franchises operate, makes us believe, leads us to the belief that it is an ideological organization,

look at their motto, Allah is our destination, Quran is our constitution, these are things that they say. And now that makes us have to reckon with the fact that certain chapters are more violent, certain chapters are more liberal. So what is it? Is it the fact that some of them say that they're Muslim Brotherhood, but they're not as ideological as the rest? Or are they playing a wait and sea game as we've seen play out across the Middle East? And I think, you know, if you're asking me, my opinion as an analyst here, I think I'd have to fall in the latter camp and the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood is smart enough and has gone through many, many cycles of repression and

resurgence to understand that they can wait this out. So when we look at, you know, more liberal, more democratic, more, I wouldn't, it would be a little bit of a misstep to say they're pro-Western, but they're Western tolerance, let's say. In my eyes, this is a waiting game. They're dealing with a monarchy, obviously in Morocco, and they're seeing that to engage in this political system, they have to play the game a little bit. And if that means being modern and liberal for a couple of years until they come into power, then that's what they'll do. And that's exactly what we saw play out in Egypt in the Arab Spring. Well, it would strike me as a fairly successful strategy given sort of the short-term view or the

ADHD that exists in the West. I mean, we tend to get bored with one thing and move on. And, you know, we're like a raccoon chasing a tinfoil ball. So I can feel. think, I mean, in a way, this is not, it's not apples to apples, but I mean, China, you know, they're the same way. They take a very long view, right, knowing that the West will get bored with sort of something in the short term. And meanwhile, they've got their eyes focused down the road. Besides Egypt, what countries have banned the Brotherhood? I mean, again, before we get to the U.S. decision for the executive order that you referenced, what other countries have banned the Brotherhood? Absolutely. So Egypt was, I believe, the first. If somebody doesn't correct me, then I think it's the first. Then we have Jordan, which was very recent, actually. In April this year, there was a ban after the Jordanian intelligence foiled a plot by the Jordanian Brotherhood. It was a terrorist plot that they foiled. Then we have the Gulf countries, which are very interesting because there was a moment in time where the Gulf countries, and a

particularly talking about Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where some would analyze that the Gulf countries in, I want to say, the 50, 60, 70 really propped up organizations like the Brotherhood and propped up the ideological milieu of the Brotherhood. And now we're seeing them come around to designating them and banning the Brotherhood. How we, as the United States, are going to look at designation, is going to be a lot different than how the Middle East looks at their version of designation. And I'm happy to yap your ear off about what I mean by that.

YAP's a technical term. Is that right? I think that is. Yes. Listen, I had a lot more questions here to throw your way. But, Mary Annette, if you could say right where you are, we do have to take a quick break. And then we'll be back with more of the PDB situation report. So please, stick around.

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See full terms at MintMobile.com. Welcome back to the Pee5. Bein B Situation Report. Now, joining us once again is research analysts at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, Meriam Waba. Merrim, thanks so much for sticking around. We just finished talking about the Muslim Brotherhood in terms of which countries have banned them in the past. We've got this executive order announced by the White House now. The U.S. is declaring them a foreign terrorist organization. But before we kind of dive into that and what that means, could you talk a bit about what the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the U.S. and in the West in general looks like?

Absolutely. And I would love to maybe point out something about the EO that I think is getting lost in some of the messaging. And it's making some people mad and some people happy. And I'll tell you in which camp I belong to in a second. But the EO doesn't actually do much except order the State Department and the Treasury Department to look into if those three branches, Jordan and Lebanon meet the criteria for designation as either an FTO or especially designated terrorist entity. And I think that's a really important distinction. We're not at designation yet. Nobody has said the FTO letters are assigned to any of these chapters, but the interagencies

within the United States government are beginning to build a case as per the EO. And I think this is really important to note. So the secretaries have 45 days, I believe, to come back to the president, 30 days to create a case, 45 days to make, to designate any of those three chapters or maybe all of those three chapters. And that's an important distinction. Look, I mean, I don't particularly study the Muslim Brotherhood presence in the West, but where I can tell you a little bit more about where we're seeing the Muslim Brotherhood influences come up, it's media.

I recently penned a piece for the free press and it was talking about how the Muslim Brotherhood built a media empire. And I go into some of the nuances that came with the fact that in the wake of, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, many Arab countries made it virtually impossible for any elements of the Muslim Brotherhood to exist. So the Muslim Brotherhood being, the Muslim Brotherhood being strategic and tactical, they took a step back and wonder, how can we still reach the world, even though we're going to be under extreme threat of operations, where, we're headquartered. And this is where the media strategy really began for the Brotherhood. And what I found in some of my research about understanding the empire that is the media presence of the Brotherhood is that they're operating out of Europe. There's alleged evidence that there might be some media presence here in the United States. And it's, it's, I really have

to use a legend here. And I have to speak a little bit loosely about it because we don't have the hard concrete evidence. But I'll give you a. prime example. There was this news channel called McCamillin, which in Arabic translates to we will continue, and it speaks to the nature of the Muslim Brotherhood and its intent and commitment to continuing. So that satellite channel popped up in Turkey in 2014 after Turkey gave the Egyptian Brotherhood kind of a camp to exist in Turkey. And in the process of Turkey and Egypt having a rapproachment in the years after that, Egypt had kindly asked that Turkey not allow the Brotherhood to continue to operate within Turkish borders. Turkey accepted the offer,

and we saw McCameline taken off the air in Turkey. Not a month later, that same channel was operating, building a studio out of London, reaching the millions they had before and millions more. And because of the laws in the UK, they really couldn't be touched because of the West operates by its own rules of freedom of speech and yada yada. But this is the point I'm trying to get to here and maybe I'm belaboring it. But the Brotherhood understands that when it knows it can't exist somewhere, it transforms, it reinvents itself so it can exist elsewhere. And I think we're going to see, and there's far smarter, more capable people that are doing the research on the domestic side here, but we're going to see that strategy start to play out here in the U.S.

Where the Brotherhood can't announce itself as the Brotherhood, we're going to see it announce itself as other things and hide behind other branding in the West. Yeah, that is fascinating. And again, speaks to what you would reference before, which is sort of that long view that they have. Now, to what degree have past administrations in the U.S., then pressured, maybe pressured's a wrong word? I guess let me put it a different way. In the past, whether it's the Trump administration, the Biden administration, Obama, whomever, have the governments of Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, have they attempted to convince the U.S. in the past to, to lay down this designation, this FTO designation on the Brotherhood?

Absolutely. I mean, we saw several attempts, and the story here is quite lengthy, but I'll, FD is a nonpartisan organization, but we do have to give a tip of the hat to Senator Ted Cruz, who's been leaving this effort since, you know, as early as 2015 when he introduced the bill to try to designate the Brotherhood. I think various attempts, including an attempt by the first Trump administration, have failed because they were trying to designate the Muslim Brotherhood, which is, as we're discussing, an organization that doesn't exist in practicality. You know, if you give me a pen and paper and you

tell me, like, draw me a picture of the Muslim Brotherhood. And I would draw you like Hamas, and I would draw you the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. And I would try to draw you pictures of these distinct autonomous chapters. And try to bear hug that for an FTO or any other designation. It's quite hard. And let me get back to your question here, too. Have other... Let me, let me, if I could, if I could interrupt you just there, do they have, I mean, if you, in terms of a diagram, if you were going to draw a wide diagram, do these various chapters, entities, organizations, whatever, do they have a shared leadership structure or other linkages, funding, you know, legal support, anything along those lines?

So yes and no. And when I say yes, I mean that there's an ideological link and these organizations sometimes partner up. And a good example of this is after the October 7 massacre by Hamas and in Israel, we saw the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood branch issue a statement of support and calling for more October 7. So if that's the kind of support we're talking about, then yes, that exists. My colleague, Ahmad Shahrawi at FDD, just recently uncovered this data point that the Jordanian intelligence put together. There are charities operating in Jordan that were allegedly fundraising for humanitarian needs in Hamas. The Jordanian intelligence just discovered that 99%, and that's not an exaggeration or hyperbole, 99% of the funds raised in Jordan through these charities actually ended up to Hamas and only 1% and ended up in Gaza for humanitarian reasons.

So all of these chapters coordinate. They link up, they talk, the exchange ideas and intelligence. But in terms of is there a clear leadership structure and is there like an org chart, we don't believe that this is the case for the brotherhood. Okay. And has that been one of the, I think I'm going to answer my own question, but based on what you said in terms of the difficulty of getting your arms around it and understanding, you know, how you deal with it, I assume that nebulous nature of it is why in part there's been this back and forth in the U.S. as an example as to what do we do with it? How do we classify it? Exactly. And again, to bring it full circle to the beginning of our conversation, the United States, laws that work to designate organizations or institutions as FTOs or other terrorist organizations are quite intense. And they require a lot of evidentiary standards. It's a high evidentiary standard to be met for something to be designated as an FTO. And when you're looking at the

organization as a whole, you can point to certain parts and say they don't meet that standard. Others do. And I think what this EO that we got from the White House last night is it just breaks it apart. It's a puzzle piece. So let's take the puzzle apart and look at the parts that meet the standard we've set for ourselves so that we can live up to our own laws. And let's, you know, on an annual or semi-annual basis, look at the ones that we've deemed do not meet the evidentiary standard. And we can come back to it when it does, if it does. So as an analyst, what do you think, I know that's some speculation on your part, but what do you think will happen as a result of this, what is it, 45-day review that the executive order calls for? Well, my hope is that all free branches are designated and perhaps they need to be designated as both FTOs and especially designated terrorists and siege. I might get the letters wrong, but it's SDGT, I believe. And I think the administration chose these three branches for a couple of reasons. The primary one being that these three branches very clearly meet all of these standards for designation. The Egyptian branch has obviously been whittled down to bare minimum since the Egyptian state designated it,

but that doesn't mean that they haven't engaged in terrorist activities since then. An offshoot of the offshoots, it's called Hassan, just in the last. last six months has tried to engage in terrorist activities in Egypt. Multiple plots were foiled by the Egyptian intelligence. And if you threaten the national security of a U.S. ally, it's almost as bad as threatening the national security of the U.S. So Egypt's branch got to go. Lebanon is particularly interesting because the Fesh forces, which is the militant arm of

the Muslim Brotherhood's Lebanon chapter, actually participated in the October. 7 war and launched missiles at northern Israel from southern Lebanon. So clear case as well. And there's many examples here. I'm kind of just giving me the obvious ones. And the Jordanian one, again, is a clear case. April, we have that foiled planned by the Jordanian intelligence for a terrorist attack on a U.S. ally. And that's terrorism if I've ever seen it. Now, being mindful of your time, one last question, and I know this, we're very, a tiny bit off topic, but I want to look at Gaza and Hamas, right? It's a chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood, and again, ask you as an analyst for your perspective. And I realize, again, that's part speculation, but where do you think Hamas is in a year from now?

I mean, with all the back and forth, there's very fragile ceasefire that's holding their apparent infusal to disarm or lack of interest in giving up governing. Where do you perceive Hamas will be if we kind of look down the road just a little bit? Okay, I'll be very brief. If we're up to the Israelis, of course, and Washington, Hamas needs to be disarmed and removed entirely from Gaza. How doable does that look at the moment? Not very much.

I think where the United States can do more on achieving this goal that we've set for ourselves and our Israeli allies is we need to put a lot more pressure on our Arab allies. I'm talking about Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt particularly. They have a lot of pull with Hamas. And we have not seen them use that influence properly to achieve the goals we've set. Okay. And what is, again, I love speculation. What is the likelihood from your experience that that might happen?

It all comes down to how Washington behaves, right? The Trump administration has been incredibly effective in securing a ceasefire, a lasting ceasefire. We've seen a couple of them in the past administration, and they were not so lasting. And I think it comes down to execution. What can the White House tell our Qatari allies, our Turkish allies and our Egyptian allies, to make sure that they do what they need to do? Let me not mince words here. We know that the Qataris and the Turks back,

us. We know that they fund them. We know that they've armed them. We know that they've been involved in their training. But these are alleged U.S. allies and they're not behaving like it. So we need to get serious about who our allies are. And if they're not behaving like the allies we call them and the benefits they reap as a result of being a U.S. ally, then should they be a U.S. ally? Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's a very pragmatic approach. And so we'll see. I, we'll see. would love to have you back on that we could kind of focus on that question maybe in the first part of our conversation because I don't think the problem is going to get resolved anytime soon,

which makes me sound, as always, very cynical. Mary Mwaba, this has been really excellent. And I want to say thank you very much for taking the time. The Foundation for Defensive Democracies, I appreciate them for, you know, saying, fine, you can chat with us. And so thank you very much for joining us today. And I hope you'll come back. Thank you, sir. I'd love to.

Well, that is all the time. There's so, like so many other things happening in the world today, there's a lot of complexity, right? And so I think it's excellent. We have the chance to kind of break some of that down. If all you did was read the headline about the Muslim Brotherhood and, you know, with the White House just, you know, announced, yeah, you're scratching the surface. So, again, that's why we're here on the Situation Report. and you know what though, that's all the time we have for this week's Situation Report.

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