The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | October 11th, 2025: Will The Gaza Ceasefire Last? & U.S.–Venezuela Relations Hit a Breaking Point

Episode Date: October 11, 2025

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: After two years of war, Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire. But key details remain uncertain, and not everyone is convinced it’ll hold. Mike Baker speaks with Joe Truzman, research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy’s Long War Journal, for insight into what could come next. Later, the standoff between Washington and Caracas is escalating fast. The Trump administration has cut off all diplomatic efforts with the Maduro regime, signaling a sharp shift toward confrontation. Mike is joined by Andrés Martínez-Fernández of the Heritage Foundation to break down what this means for U.S.–Venezuela relations. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybriefTrue Classic: Upgrade your wardrobe and save on @trueclassic at https://trueclassic.com/PDB #trueclassicpodTriTails Premium Beef: Discover the Autumn Butcher Block — built for family meals and legacy-making — available now at https://trybeef.com/pdb while supplies last.American Financing: Call American Financing today to find out how customers are saving an avg of $800/mo. NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.327% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit http://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears. on the world stage. All right, and let's get briefed. First up, after two years of war, Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire. This is a big deal. But key details remain uncertain, and not everyone is convinced it will hold. We'll have more on that with Joe Trusman, research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal. Later in the show, the standoff between Washington and Caracas is escalating fast. The Trump administration has

cut off all diplomatic efforts with the Maduro regime, uh-oh, signaling a sharp shift toward confrontation. We'll be joined by Andreas Martinez Fernandez of the Heritage Foundation for some insight into the growing tensions. But first, today's situation report spotlight. Israel and Hamas have reached a breakthrough agreement today, a phased ceasefire and a major hostage prisoner swap. Under the first phase, Hamas will free all remaining Israeli hostages, and Israel, will begin a partial military withdrawal from Gaza to a mutually agreed line. Now, the deal was brokered through intense negotiations in Shamal Sheikh under U.S. Egyptian and Katari mediation. But key issues like disarmament of Hamas, that's a big one,

Gaza's future governance and verification mechanisms remain unresolved and are likely to determine whether this truce holds. Joining us now, to break it all down, is Joe Truesman, research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, Long War Journal. Joe, thanks very much for joining us here on the PDB Situation Report. Appreciate you having me on. There is a lot to go over when it comes to this ceasefire agreement. But let's start at the very top. Is this, how do you view this? Do you view this as a beginning of the end of the war and, you know, a road to peace? Or do you do? you view it as just a very temporary and tenuous ceasefire? I think this is a pause in the conflict between Israel and Palestinian armed groups.

I think for now, I think we will see hostages returned, prisoners exchange, a prisoner exchange, and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the IDF pulling back out of the Gaza Strip. But I think the key point here more than anything is that Hamas, at least the way I see it now, Hamas is going to stay in power. I don't think they're going to disarm, even though that was a key point in the Trump plan.

I just don't see any signs of that right now. So that's why I say this is a pause, because if Hamas continues to hold arms, right, it's going to regenerate, all right? It's going to continue doing what it's been doing for more than 30, for about 30 years now. And that's wage war against Israel. So it's a pause, I think. It's often called the hoodna in a hudda in Arabic, Korea, at least in the Middle East, as far as this is concerned. as far as this conflict is concerned, it's a pause. So that's what I'm seeing.

But, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's, uh, it is mutual, but mutually beneficial for both parties here, right? The hostages are coming home. Uh, and unfortunately, you know, Hamas also gets a respite here. But yeah, I see this as a, as a pause, unfortunately. And yes, I think there will be another conflict down the road, whether that's a year or two from now. I couldn't tell you for sure.

But it's going to happen. I'm pretty sure of. What is your understanding of? of the process, the logistics as it stands right now. What's your understanding of the return of the hostages? I mean, obviously, there's a transfer of Palestinian prisoners. That's fairly straightforward, frankly. A much more difficult process is the hostages, and I hate to sound gruesome,

but particularly those that have been confirmed as dead. So what do you see? What's the timeline and what is the process from what you want to do? understand. Right. So from what I understand is that Hamas will release the living, all of the living hostages, which is reported to be 20 of them in the next 72 hours, give or take a few hours. So the next 72 hours, sometime, whether it's Friday, Saturday, Sunday, maybe even actually, it would probably be closer either Saturday, Sunday, or Monday, because of course, Israel is ahead of us in time right now, but nevertheless, 20 hostages will be released all in, you know,

it may be, you know, they may be separated as far as a few hours, you know, five of them will be released and then another batch will be released. But it'll be quick. Unlike previous hostages, ceasefire is where hostages will release where they were released in phases. Now, as far as the the ones who have been killed, that's going to be, that's different. We don't know exactly yet when that's going to happen. Hamas, at least according to some reports, Hamas said that they need to find these deceased hostages, right? And yes, that does sound gruesome, but I will say this.

Unfortunately, I've had the task to, over the last, last two years, I've viewed many of these gruesome October 7th videos. Most of the ones that have been made public and some that have not been made public. And I'll tell you that when they were, Hamas and its allies were taking civilians hostage and, of course, soldiers as well, I noticed something that they were very chaotic. It was very unorganized. I don't think they realize that they were going to be able to take so many hostages in this attack. So it doesn't surprise me that there may be the bodies of hostages scattered in Gaza. And I don't mean to sound crude here, but this is the reality.

So it takes time for Hamas to find it. Find them. I assume part of the problem also is I think people think about this in sort of a cut and dried manner, a black and white manner. You know, Hamas is holding the hostages, right? And there they are. They're all, the living are in one location, but that doesn't seem to be the case. It seems as if there was Hamas, there were criminal elements, perhaps Islamic jihad. And so they were fairly dispersed. And I mean, am I wrong in saying that Hamas may not have a clue where some of the remains of hostages are located?

Maybe possible. And it's horrible to say, but as you said, other elements, Islamajad, for example, civilians too actually are so-called civilians also to cost or so. So that is definitely a possibility here. So they need time to find these hostages. Now, they may know where they all are, but it's just not publicly known to us, at least now. And nevertheless, nevertheless, there are about four. 48 hostages in total, including Livy, I believe that there's still remaining the Gaza Strip. So it's going to take time to find them.

And hopefully, once Hamas finds them and returns them, I think the next phase of the ceasefire deal will go into effect where the Israelis begin to pull back completely out of the Gaza Strip. Because right now, they're pulling back some, but not out of all the Gaza Strip. It looks as if, I mean, these from reports that we've seen here at the PDB, it looks as if they're pulling back and essentially seating a little over half of the strip in terms of pulling back to this yellow line or however they're referring to it, the withdrawal boundary. What do you say about, from the outset, the objective, according to Nenjahou, was to destroy Hamas, to make sure that this could never happen again, which has been part of this, this laser focus on the issue of disarmament, right? You can't keep Hamas in place. They can't

reconstitute, as you pointed out at the beginning. But the reality is that it looks like we're kind of threading that, and we're going to end up with a Hamas that is still breathing, refuses to talk about this argument and it seems determined to play some role in the governance. So I take your point saying that this is a temporary pause, as good as it is, because, you know, if you can get the hostages both living and dead back, but if we kind of play this out down the road a little bit, say the hostages are returned, palisian prisoners are exchanged, Fine, but you have Hamas still there. From your perspective, what's the current condition of Hamas? I mean, we hear a lot about the leadership has been decimated, et cetera, et cetera, the number of fighters that have been killed.

But have you heard anything that sounds credible in terms of the actual fighting capabilities and strength of Hamas at this point? Right. Yeah, that's a very important course, as you mentioned, dead fighters. their upper echelons of the group's high command, for example, have been decimated. But some other things I've noticed as well about Hamas, and actually not only the Hamas, but other organizations that act under it that are armed in the Gaza Strip. Obviously, we've already mentioned as Palestinian Islamic Jihad,

but there are about six or seven other Palestinian armed groups, of course, much smaller than Hamas, much smaller than Islamic Jihad. But that they act as support for Hamas. And they've been very active in the Gaza war and on October 7. Now, I would say that all these groups, especially Hamas, yes, they've been decimated. Leadership's been decimated. Commanders, foot soldiers that were there pre-October 7th. A lot of them, thousands, I believe, are dead.

Okay, that's, you know, for the Israelis, that's good. But, you know, there's some other things that I've noticed, too. For example, at the first week's first month of the war, Palestinian armed groups, especially Hamas, were firing dozens of rockets at a time. And throughout the day for weeks on end, most of them targeted southern Israel near the Gaza border. But, you know, at times there was a fire against Central Israel, against Tel Aviv, as far as Jerusalem, for example. And we don't see that anymore.

It's, you know, I think the last one was a, that was a long-range rocket or considered a long-range rocket, was against Tel Aviv, and that was a month ago. So that tells me that Hamas's capability to launch rockets or long-range rockets has been diminished considerably. Not only that, short-range rockets, too. The ones that caused a lot of problems for the communities near the Gaza border, we barely see rocket fire from the Gaza Strip down. That's good. So I think that's changed.

But they, Hamas and its allies in the Gaza Strip, they know how to manufacture these weapons and they're going to continue doing that once the sea fire goes into effective. Hostages are released and they get their prisoners and the IDF is out. of the Gaza Strip. They're going to go back to their old ways. That's the problem. Yes, there's going to be new faces, right? New commanders, maybe a new head of the organization of the Gaza Strip.

But, you know, we're just going to see this cycle, start all over again. And unfortunately, you know, Hamas has learned this time. They've learned from work. And they're going to change things a little bit. And I'm probably going to get smarter. They're going to dig more tunnels. They're going to manufacture more rockets and attempt to smuggle more weapons and to regenerate what they have lost over two years of battle. So, yes.

Honestly, if they dig more tunnels, that whole Gaza Strip is going to collapse. They really don't have much more they can do underground. Listen, Joe, I want to pick up on a couple of those points you just raised, kind of the idea of rearming. and also how they view, how Hamas views this ceasefire. But before we do that, we've got to take a quick break. So if you stick around, we'll be right back with Joe Trusman from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Stay right there and we'll be back here with a situation report before you know it. Stick around.

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Journal. We've been talking all things related to the ceasefire agreement. And Joe, I guess this question's going to sound odd, perhaps. But how do you think Hamas views this ceasefire? Do they view it as a victory? view it as surrender, as capitulation? Do they view it as just simply something necessary for their future survival? What do you think? I don't think they view it as a surrender. You know, throughout the war, especially in the last, say, six months or so, Hamas has been extremely stuck to its guns. And what I mean by that is that they said, okay, Israel, for us to end, for the war to end, or for the war to end, or for us to accept a ceasefire.

Hamas said, we will do it at a hostage exchange or prisoner exchange. We will, we can do a change in governance as far as who will run the Gaza Strip politically. Okay. They mentioned those things and some other stuff as well. And a lot of that, what we're seeing now, the hostage exchange, the IDF pulling back, for example, the aid as well, that's going to start coming into the Gaza strip.

That's all happening. So that's what Hamas said that they wanted. So I think they may have not gotten everything, of course, that they wanted, but I think they're going to be happy or at least satisfied. I think that's the better term to use here with the ceasefire deal. Again, as I said earlier, they never said that they were going to. to disarm, okay? And so far, at least today, they haven't, and nor do I think they will disarm. So that's very important for them. So, yes, you know, through this whole war, biggest thing for

Hamas was survival, to survive what the IDF was, the IDF operation, because I don't think they realized when they planned the October 7th attack that the IDF would go as far as they did, as it did, that this war would last two years. Now, can you say in hindsight, would Hamas of thoughts, second thoughts of doing the October 7th attack if they knew how the IDF was going to respond? I wish I couldn't answer that for you.

But nevertheless, it was about survival for Hamas. I don't think their priority wasn't the Palestinian civilians that were going through hell for two years. It was themselves. It was the organization. It had to remain functional. And it is now, and it will be after this ceasefire deal like thing. And so I think they're satisfied.

Yeah, they're bruised. Yeah, they're hurt. Their allies are hurt. For sure, Iran is hurt. Hezbollah's hurt. But they survived. So I think that's the most important thing for them. Well, and speaking of Iran, I'm glad you mentioned them.

She and Bet just talked over the past couple of days. days about an operation that they were conducting or have been conducting, where they busted up a weapon smuggling effort run by the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard Corps from the Iranian regime, in an effort to try to smuggle weapons, and a sizable cash was picked up by the Israelis through Syria and Jordan, which Jordan has a fairly porous border right now, and then into the West Bank. So the idea of let's get these weapons into the West Bank, who knows what they were thinking after that, which I guess is a rambling way for me to say that to your point, it's a pause. Hamas will, if all things stay relatively the same as they are currently, will reconstitute because it's in Iran's best interest to have them recostitute.

They've been a very important part of their proxy network. Am I wrong about that? No, absolutely. Hamas is one of the main factors in the Iran-led axes of resistance, right? And it was very important for Habas to survive this war. I mean, you had Hezbollah involved for more than a year defending or assisting Hamas, and then the Houthis, of course. And then you have the Iraqi militia groups firing rockets at the Israelis as well.

So, yeah, Hamas is very important. But to your point, as far as, like for the West Bank, for example, before a couple of years before the war or for a couple of years before the war started in 2023, the West Bank was on fire. And what I mean by that is that armed groups in the West Bank that were loyal to Iran, it's Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and others, they were receiving a lot of smuggled weapons and mostly firearms. But nevertheless, they were manufacturing IETs. And now this recent operation that you mentioned is very concerning because what the Israelis found wasn't just, you know, a pistol. and rifles.

They found rocket launchers. They found claymore mines. They found explosive-laden drones. And this stuff you don't see in the West Bank. You may see it in Gaza, not in the West Bank. So these are, they're often termed game-changing weapons, okay? Those type of weapons in the West Bank would cause significant damage. So, point being here is that Iran, despite the war in June with the Israelis, despite the war in Gaza,

and the Israeli operation in the West Bank that started in January this year, Iran is still trying to arm its network of proxies and clies in the West Bank. They want to keep that front against Israel open and that's what the 11th is. Yeah, I had this crazy theory, Joe. this wild-eyed theory that says you'll never have long-term stability or peace as long as the Iranian regime, as long as the Mullahs and the IRGC remain in charge in Iran. Now, that's not the same as saying, you know, I'm calling for a regime change. I'm saying the Iranian people themselves need to, you know, finally step up and say enough's enough. You know, we just, but that's, that's been along for, you know, holy grail on the part of the.

the West that somehow they uh internally there would be a you know a revolt against some mulles and then r gc i don't know that that is ever going to happen um but that's that's my theory is that everything else is just putting lipstick on a pig um right you can have the i agree with have very peace deals yeah yeah i mean i'm sure yeah anyway maybe i maybe my analogy is not a good one but um so let me ask you this Yes. And this is a simplistic question, I realize. But is there one issue, is there one concern, one point that will determine whether this ceasefire holds? If the hostages, all of the hostages are returned, the ceasefire will hold. I think it will. Now, if let's say there's a missing hostage. Or something happens, then I start getting concerned.

But I think both parties here, right? Either the Israelis, they want to see this through, even though it's not, at least in my point of view, they're not getting everything that they wanted. I think they want to see this through. Amas, I think, wants to see this through as well because it needs to recover. So I think both parties, every party involved here wants us to work. But things happen. This is the Middle East.

This is war. So I think if something happens with the hostages, it doesn't matter if it's the lives that are living or the ones that have been killed or that are deceased, one is not returned for whatever reason or if there is a delay in returning them, I think that it'll cause some some big problems. And we may see a collapse of the ceasefire. But that's, I think, the biggest concern I have for this ceasefire deal if it were to fall through for whatever reason. But I don't think it will.

Yeah. Yeah. And I agree. I think, I'm in complete agreement with what you're saying about Hamas looking at this as we've survived. What we have to do is return the hostages and we've survived. and I'm sure there are some fairly hard and fast statements within the proposal, with the agreement that talks about cessation of hostilities, Israel not going back in and, you know, resuming the conflict once they get the hostages back.

Joe, I got to tell you something. I really appreciate your insight here. And I'd love to have you back on in the very near future, because I think, I think we'll find out, to your point, I think we'll find out whether this holds, at least for the short term here, probably within the next few days in terms of the hostage release and Palestinian prisoner transfer situation. But Joe Trusman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, when we call you the next time, I hope you'll pick up the phone. And then when we have you on, I'm going to ask you what's up with that football over your shoulder there that's in the case. Oh, yeah, absolutely. That's more than actually to talk.

Thank you. Cool, man. Listen, thank you very, very much for stopping by. That's Joe Truism, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies with very, very important development. Two years of conflict, kickstarted by Hamas's barbaric 7 October attacks two years ago on Israel. Yeah, we can all hope that it comes to an end and that we do get something resembling a longer-term peace out of all of this. but there are a lot of points left to resolve, most notably, as Joe was pointing out, the disarmament issue for Hamas, future governance issues as well.

So, all right, there we go. Up next, the Trump administration just cut off diplomatic efforts with the Maduro regime. Remember Nicholas Maduro? Yeah, we've been talking about him here at the PDB, ending months of quiet negotiations. Now, Andres Martinez-Fernandez from the Heritage Foundation's Allison Center for National Security, joins us to explain. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, good values, a strong foundation, legacy. Those things don't happen by accident. They're built and reinforced day by day, often around

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U.S. naval forces have stepped up operations in the Caribbean and continue targeting vessels allegedly tied to Venezuela's drug trafficking. networks. With diplomacy off the table and military pressure mounting, both sides now appear to be bracing for confrontation because that's what 2025 needed, more confrontation. For more on this, let me bring in Andres Martinez Fernandez. He's the senior policy analyst for Latin America in the Heritage Foundation's Allison Center for National Security. Underst, thanks very much for joining us here on the PDB situation report. Thanks for having me, Mike. If diplomacy is off the table, as the White House is set, and Secretary Rubio has said, then what does that mean?

What's the endgame here, do you think, with Venezuela? Well, I think what the change as far as the approach and this kind of withdrawal of the diplomatic, so-called effort with Venezuela, is really just a recognition of the reality of what the Maduro regime is, which is a mendacious criminal organization that has just latched on to organs of control and government in Venezuela. And you don't get to an end state where there's peace and stability in our atmosphere, where this regime remains in power, continues to weaponize migration and narco-trafficking against the United States. States. What we're seeing President Trump and Secretary Rubio and this administration do,

I think is bring to bear real pressure against this regime. And that's something that they've, for a long time, the Miloto regime has survived by playing games with the international community, telling lies, doing fake negotiations, and gathering these kinds of of resources from the oil relief, oil sanctions relief rather, that have allowed him to buy loyalty from a very small segment of the military and maintain control. I think what the end state here is, you know, we have an elected government once again in Venezuela, which we haven't had for quite a while, at least not in elections that anyone recognizes As legitimate.

Well, okay, now, first of all, you know, good use of the word mendacious. You couldn't see it while you were talking, but I was busy Googling the definition of mendacious. So you win today's PDB Situation Report vocabulary award. But let's talk about that election process. How this is going to, I guess I'm stacking this question. But with Maduro, the last election, how free and fair was it? Oh, well, I mean, he essentially hand-selected his opponent and put great restrictions in the ability of the opposition candidate to operate targeted opposition activists and

voters in harassment with using security forces and in other criminal activities. There was no real guarantee of free speech. In fact, a proactive use of state violence against the exercise of free speech. It was not anything that we would recognize in this country or in the West as a free and fair election. But it's for some reason they went forward with this fraud. And I think it was enough to buy him from some more less honest actors in the international community, enough to buy him some breathing room.

But that's clearly not the case anymore. And with this administration, the Trump administration, he's calling out this regime for what it is, which is, again, a criminal regime. that has no legitimate claim to power there. So they've got a $50 million bounty on Maduro's head, basically, for information leading to his location and arrest. We've got a significant naval presence now in the Caribbean, basically, under the auspices of counter-narcotics operations.

And Maduro is using all of that, right, as evidence that the U.S. intends to overthrow Venezuela to start conducting operations, you know, on the ground there. Highly speculative question, I realize that, but that's what I specialize in. Where do you think? Is that in the realm of the possible? I mean, we're hearing about other military deployments in the area. If you were going to make a move from an operational perspective to pick up a high value target, we seem to be putting all the chess pieces in place. Where do you see this going? Yeah, certainly this requires a lot of speculation. Yeah, I think this administration is clearly keeping all options on the table when it comes to the security of our hemisphere and the homeland, and this regime being a direct threat to both those.

As far as what the administration is willing to do or likely to do, I think for now there's certainly a focus on, again, providing a base level of security against particularly the weaponization of narcotics and other illicit flows coming from this regime. Whether that is going to move into a next phase where we're, instead of going after the shipment of this illicit activity and going at the source, I think it's still an open question. I think what we may be seeing right now is an effort to exacerbate some of the fissures in the regime and the Maduro's loyalty, which has really, it's been fractured for quite a while. It's survived through, really, it's impressive to see how it survived through all these challenges. But I think it's the kind of house of cards that the only reason it remains is because it really

hasn't been pressed against in a significant way. And that's where we are seeing a change in the way the administration is approaching it. And that may open up those fissures and see someone taking advantage within the regime. Again, this being a criminal organization where violence and power struggles have basically defined its reality for several years, maybe seeing that expand beyond what the dictator Nicholas Maduro can control, maybe that leads to his ouster. I think that's likely what one of the factors. Also, the other factor is social unrest and the public response.

within Venezuela, Malau has been unpopular for, basically since he, since he came into our, but he has almost no real public support beyond a very fringe minority, which subsists off of public support. And so what we've seen in the past is protest activity that has really been dramatic in Venezuela. We haven't seen that return in the past few months, but we may see that be one of the consequences of people, once again, seeing the weakness of this regime within Venezuela, and seeing an opening. And that's the kind of thing that could also exacerbate some of those fissures in Malouda support. If he's that unpopular with the public, then I assume what that means

basically he's holding on to power through his ability to control the military and whatever intel apparatus they have and and the police there in Venezuela. So how, how act, I mean, do we have credible insight, intelligence on the, the loyalties of the military towards Maduro at the stage? Have you seen anything that, you know, other than speculation? Yeah, I mean, this has been a years long kind of struggle. And there's certainly been over that time a number of defections from the regime, including high-level defections from the security forces and intelligence apparatus there. And many of those folks have come to the United States and have been cooperating with the DEA with provision of insight information, which has been very

important and helpful. More recently, we've also seen reports of that fissure and the lack of support within Venezuela. I think in part, you know, this whole exercise of support, a public exercise of national defense, which which the Venezuelan regime called the other day. I think that also, which had a kind of mass mobilization in mind, but it was very, pretty pathetic as far as actual turnout and what the military was able to show as far as strength and really exhibited just the weakness of the regime generally, but the military in particular. What it's, you know, the challenge with for the regime

is that, and its military is that it has really, over the past several years, turned primarily into a narco-trafficking outfit rather than being a traditional military that is focused on defense of their territory and maintaining their institutions. It's really just a profit generating and illicit revenue generating entity, which has enriched primarily those at the top of the of the Venezuelan military. So particularly as you go further down, there is quite a bit of upset and discontent within the ranks. Okay. Yeah.

I want to pick up on that if I could. But first, Audra's, we've got to take a quick break. So if you'll stay right there, don't go anywhere. We have to take a quick timeout, and then we'll be back with more of the PDB situation report. Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time, if I could, to talk about your personal finances. Now, you've probably heard, I'm sure, that the Fed has finally dropped interest rates, and that is great news for American homeowners. As you know, expenses have been a major burden on families. Wages are flat, prices are climbing,

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to libyar the heart more rapid and super Claritin and Florenti hour

Parade Adelante Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report joining me once again

is Andres Martinez Fernandez the senior policy analyst for Latin America

at the Heritage Foundation's Allison Center for National Security Andres

thanks very much for sticking around. What I wanted to pick up on, if I could, is the question of evidence of Intel that corroborates the allegations that Nicholas Maduro himself is heavily involved in narco trafficking and cartel operations there in Venezuela. Can we talk about that just for a little bit? I'm just curious from your perspective, how solid is the evidence, how solid is the Intel, because I think the White House, the Trump administration, could probably be doing itself a favor by, to the degree as possible, without releasing sources and methods, being a little bit more transparent to share some of that insight. Yeah, I think there's a mountain of evidence that's been accumulated over the years of the

regime's direct involvement in narco-trafficking. And again, as I mentioned, a big source of that has been actual regime officials who have defected and fled to the United States and elsewhere, sharing information about how the Venezuelan military has become directly involved in the management of narco-trafficking, naming names, and identifying as much, even bank account information and other methods for laundering of illicit funds, which primarily seems to go through these public entities, formerly government institutions, now essentially drug trafficking organizations and entities within Venezuela. You also have seen within the US when we are able to get our hand in Europe on some of these

regime officials who have been arrested, we've been able to, for example, we had the prosecution of Maludo's own neft use for narco-execchio. narco-trafficking to the United States, which again revealed the direct links of not only the regime, but Malauro himself, to narco-trafficking. And again, other officials who we've managed through cooperation with partner nations to arrest and prosecute at different levels, we've been able to identify quite a bit about just how directly involved the regime is in all this activity. And all this has been revealed, again, over a series of many years.

I think the reality is if you don't recognize that the regime is essentially a narco-trafficking activity organization, you just have it looks at what has been publicly available for years and years. Yeah. Yeah, I think, I mean, I take your point, and I think that's absolutely correct. I guess I would like to see, you know, because it is a concern, right? The general public in the U.S. They see, you know, as deploying a variety of, you know, fairly high-powered military assets to the region.

They see, you know, the strikes on the various narco vessels that have been hit over the past few weeks. and I think the administration, from a messaging perspective, could probably be doing themselves a bit more of a favor because, you know, they keep saying this. I don't think the public's not out there independently gathering information about Venezuela and Maduro and his narcotrafficking activities. But I think from the White House perspective, hey, how about we get some of that information out there right now to help explain what it is that is going on? again, without revealing sources and methods, of course. But let me ask you this, if I could, if all of this activity in the region, does somehow convince Maduro's close confidants or his supporters in the military to turn on him, then what?

As far as what comes next in Venezuela, if Paduro is ousted for power, you know, there is an opposition leader who has had the legitimacy of the support of the opposition for, you know, quite a while. And it's talking here specifically about Maria Karina Ocho, she was one of the people and the main person who was prohibited from running in the elections against Bal Udo, despite the fact that she won overwhelmingly in the only a real vote that was seen, which was a primary vote that went outside of the regime's public control entities and therefore is much more trustworthy as far as the results that it showed and it showed overwhelming support for her. She then threw her support behind another

candidate who was essentially a stand-in and that candidate won. overwhelmingly by all reports, of course, the regime offered these false numbers, which were almost comical. They divided out exactly to one decimal point when you're talking about millions of votes, which is kind of pretty much impossible. But he won overwhelmingly by all reports. So there's clearly an opposition that is... the logical transition, at least, to post-Modoro regime space, you know, then what comes after

that is fully restoration of elections and restoration of these core government institutions which have been corrupted for really decades. I mean, that would be the best case scenario, for sure, absolutely. I'm going to play devil's advocate because I'm such a. a cynical bastard and say that barring the U.S. going in and picking up Maduro and then playing a direct role in bringing in the duly elected, the properly elected opposition to secure power, if that doesn't happen, then the likely scenario perhaps is that all the activity, the pressure on the regime causes some of his inner circle to flip, to turn on him. And I guess my cynical

nature says that those individuals have benefited from being in the inner circle for material. And they're not likely at that point to turn around and say, Marina, Karina Machado should come in or the duly elected governor should come in and clean house. Because they, They're part of the garbage. So yeah, I don't know, it's not really a question in there. I'm just wondering what your response is. No, yeah. I mean, there would, and there have been a lot of discussions around possible amnesty for particularly

some of these officials that have for a very long time supported the regime, including in criminal and illicit activities. I think there's a recognition even from what someone would say. or the more hardline opposition actors in Venezuela, that there would have to be some compromise with respect to that kind of amnesty for those folks. The priority being, again, a restoration of democratic control in Venezuela, you know, these are all possibilities as far as how that transition would work. Certainly, I think them maintaining power wouldn't be in the cards, but that doesn't necessarily mean that what should be seen as far as the full justice

for all of these support cogs for the regime is realized, but it does mean at least hopefully restoration of democracy. Yeah, yeah. I appreciate that and I appreciate also the optimism. I suspect we'll know here in the not too distant future where this may be. be going. It just seems like that, you know, the pot's on boil right now. And we certainly have a lot of assets in place. And again, $50 million as a reward for information leading to his arrest, you have to wonder whether his executive protection detail has heard about that or not. I'm just,

I think they watched the situation report. So I just pointed that out. I got to tell you, And And Andres, this has been very, very, very informative. And we really appreciate your insight here at the Situation Report. I'd love to have you back on here in the not too distant future because I do think we'll be talking about this for some time. And I do think we're going to be seeing some developments down there if I don't miss my guess. But Andres Martinez Fernandez Heritage Foundation, thank you again for joining us here on the Situation Report, man. Thank you. It's been a pleasure.

Excellent. Thanks so much. We'll see you next time. Well, that is all the time. There's something more interesting than talking about regime change, is there? Well, okay, fine. Of course there is. That's all the time we have for the PDB situation report.

If you have any questions or comments or humorous anecdotes or limericks, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. You know what we do once a month. Everybody gathers around the very expensive mahogany conference room table at the PDB secret layer, and we pull out some of the best questions and comments. we shmush them all together into a monthly episode that we call Ask Me Anything. So that means keep your cards and letters coming. Now, to listen to the podcast of the show ad-free, and you can do that, and you can do it very simply,

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