The President's Daily Brief - PDB Situation Report | October 5, 2024: War on the Horizon? Iran’s Missile Barrage & Israel’s Invasion Explained

Episode Date: October 5, 2024

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: We kick off with the dramatic escalation between Iran and Israel. After Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israeli targets, the possibility of a full-scale war looms large. Simone Ledeen, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, joins us to break it all down. Next, we take a deep dive into Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon. The operation is aimed at weakening Hezbollah and pushing the group back from Israel’s border. Bill Roggio of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies provides his expert analysis on the unfolding conflict. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] ☕ Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB 🏅 Patriot Gold: Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. 🕶️ MySudo: Go to https://MySudo.com/MIKEBAKER & use code 'MIKEBAKER' to get 30 days free on a SudoPro yearly subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the crispy chicken sandwich from 7-Eleven, people always call me loud. And I'm like, yeah, I know. I'm crispy. Did you expect me to whisper? If you want quiet, go eat some soup and reflect. Like, I know I'm a handful. I'm bold, I'm juicy. Throw some pickles and barbecue sauce on me, and baby, I'm a whole meal.

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I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get brief. We're kicking things off today with the dramatic escalation between Iran and Israel. You may have heard about it. After Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israeli targets, the prospect of a full-scale war between two of the Middle East's most powerful militaries, well, it's on the rise. Joining us to break it down is Simone Ledeen,

former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East. Later in the program, we'll take a closer look at Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon, aimed at weakening Hezbollah's ability to wage war and pushing the group away from its border. Bill Roggio of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies will join us for more insight. But first, today's situation report's spotlight. Of course, we'll start with the big news this week. Iran launched a massive missile strike against targets in Israel on Tuesday. Israeli officials confirmed that its air defenses alongside a coalition of U.S.-led allies

intercepted most of the approximately 180 ballistic missiles. However, a number of projectiles still managed to breach the country's aerial defense system. In the aftermath, Israeli authorities released an initial damage report showing minor damage to dozens of homes, other civilian infrastructure, and a few military bases. Fortunately, the casualties were limited, with the only confirmed death being a Palestinian man in Jericho who was killed by missile fragments from the attack. Iran justified the missile strike as retaliation for the recent deaths of senior leaders from Hezbollah and Hamas, groups that, of course, it supports in the region.

And by support, I mean they entirely fund, train and resource them. Just hours after the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stern warning saying, Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it, end quote. While he didn't elaborate on what that response will be, the situation is clearly far from over. Now, for more on the escalating conflict, let me bring in former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, Simone Ladeen. Simone, thanks very, very much for taking the time to join us here on the Situation Report. Thanks for inviting me. Happy to be here.

Let's start with the big picture. This attack. What do you expect or what do you believe we should expect from an Israeli response? Well, a lot of people today have been talking about potential targets. And I think those are valid. I agree with you. Certainly there will be a response. And I also happen to believe it will be significant.

But if we're judging by what Israel, the actions that Israel's taken to this point, I think it's smart to expect the unexpected. They spent a long time preparing the battlefield in Lebanon, i.e., cutting off all the leadership of Hezbollah and before they actually put boots on the ground, visible boots on the ground in Lebanon. And I think with respect to this next phase in Iran, I think we should expect to see the same thing. I mean, over the years, it's well understood that they have a significant network, both in Iran and in Lebanon and in Syria as well, by the way, which is also in place. So I think they're going to continue to combine their military operations. And by that, I mean kind of the conventional military operations with target.

targeted special operation strikes and continue to be incredibly innovative and impressive with their intelligence operations. So I think that's a starting point for me anyway. With that the first attack from Iran into Israel that took place in April, there was a lot of talk about sort of the signaling that went on from the Iranian regime. And whether that was indirect, whether they you know, they advised the Saudis, knowing the Saudis would advise the U.S., whatever. Do you feel as if there was any of that going on prior to this? Because, I mean, the White House was pretty clear. They came out shortly before the attack and said, we believe an attack is imminent.

Do you think the Iranian regime in some effort to try to probably just keep their Mullahs in power, do you think that there was any signaling about this latest attack? Thank you for bringing up the fact that it's the Mullahs who are worried about their own grasp on on power, their own grip on power. Everything that they're doing right now is with a clear eye to their domestic situation, which continues to be quite precarious. So yes, they did signal they were going to do this. I mean, just look at social media in the hours leading up to this attack. It was all over. Iran's about to attack. A Rand's about to attack. And so it was obvious that they were and the reason that they signaled again was because they don't want a massive response,

but they wanted, they knew they had to do something. Otherwise, they looked weak because Israel just took out Nisrallah, who was the leader of their largest terrorist army. So yeah, I mean, I think they're sort of bracing right now. And I believe they made a critical strategic error. And I think with Israel now, the gloves are off, the mask is off, it's clear. really Iran is the threat that they're dealing with before they had Hamas and hasbalah kind of running interference for the regime. And now there's a moment where they're both significantly weekend and kind of kind of off the field for a second anyway. And I don't know when Israel will have another opportunity like this to really take a significant toll and potentially even

help topp all the mullahs. Yeah, it's a really, it's a really, it's a really, really interesting point that you're making there because, I mean, the whole point of the Iranian regime spending all this time and money and resources building this network of proxies, right, to pursue their objective, which is they've stated it. They're not shy about it. The destruction of Israel, remove them from the map, was so that the regime itself in Iran wouldn't take the heat. They have some, you know, lack of accountability for, you know, however you want to put it. And now that veneer has kind of been pushed away. And you have to think that, as you pointed out, they're extremely concerned right now, particularly also because they, I think there's a great deal of fear and paralysis within the regime, the Iranian regime, over to what degree they've been penetrated by Israeli intelligence, right?

I mean, the past several weeks have shown that, and it's not a short-term project. They've obviously been spending years doing this, but I think it's shown that their capabilities and understanding, as you pointed out, not just the Iranians, the Syrians, of course, the Hezbollah Hamas, is astounding. Let me ask you this. Do you think, because the White House is spending a great deal of time right now, trying to pull on the reins, right, and ensure that the Israelis don't have a disproportionate disproportionate attack in their in their minds uh does the white house at this point the biden

administration do they have any leverage over nettingahu i mean isn't it sad that that's even that that's even a question um i don't think they do to be honest with you i think uh looking back to several months back to when we had sort of handcuffed israel from entering rafa and there was that whole big you know all eyes on rafa and um this huge drama about what would happen if Israel entered Rafa, none of which actually played out. Netanyahu in his cabinet at a certain point just went in anyway. But it just goes to show you, and I think it was an important lesson for Israel as well. They are going to do what they need to to defend themselves. And while the White House says Israel needs to do everything, we support Israel

doing everything. It can to, it needs to defend itself. The U.S. definition of what that is and the Israeli definition of what that is is is not the same thing. I think the U.S. and the Biden-Harris administration's sort of view of this is the status quo, returning to the status quo, where there's a threat to Israel from Gaza, from Hamas, and there's still a living threat to Israel from Lebanon in the north. And by the way, I mean, I think it's worth noting, too, that thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes in the north for almost a year now, because they fled after October 7th, fearing a similar October 7-style attack from Hezbollah. And that's actually played out.

Like, now the IDF troops that are in southern Lebanon are finding plans and weapons and things that Hezbollah was going to use in an October 7th style attack. So Israel, you know, one of their stated goals of this war is to return its citizens safely to their homes in the north. And in order to do that, they've got to at least push Hezbollah north of the Latani River. And so have this buffer zone, which actually was supposed to be there anyway under United Nations Security Council resolution. But, you know, the bottom line is the status quo, the pre-October 7th status quo that this administration wants to return to is not acceptable to Israel. Israel will never return to that situation because they know how that story ends. And so I think it's like dramatically unrealistic to try to make them do it because they're just not going to.

Yeah. No, I think there's this sense that, you know, from the White House, and I think you're absolutely right, that, you know, and we saw it, you know, shortly after 7 October, right? The calls for a ceasefire, you know, came very quickly from the White House and, of course, from the international community. And by the way, shocking that a UN resolution wouldn't be holding. But I think that the, yeah, it's just, it's stunning. But I think the idea that you just, let's get a ceasefire going. is simply kicking the can down the road. It has no long-term impact.

If what people are really interested in is long-term peace and stability and improvement of lives for Palestinians, for Lebanese, for Israelis, for Syria, everybody, you've got to look at the key problem here, which I would argue is the Iranian regime in the IRC since they are responsible for the bulk of the chaos and instability and violence that's taking place right now. So I think that, you know, the Biden administration obviously has spent several years now in an appeasement posture with the Iranian regime, hoping to somehow magically pull them into the community of nations.

And it's such an unrealistic point of view. It shows a complete lack of understanding of the individuals and the nature of the beast that we're dealing with with the Iranian regime. Again, not the Iranian people. Do you think that that's all kind of a long rambling way of saying, getting to my point, my question with you, do you think that sort of there's been a sea change within the Israeli government, within the leadership there, certainly with Netanyahu and his close members of a security cabinet, that it's time, that they don't have the luxury of, of, you know, full on support from the U.S. administration that that maybe they do have to take matters into their own hands and that maybe that's

why they've decided after all this time it's not that they just had this intelligence about the pagers or their handhelds or some of the command structure of hesbola right some of it was target of opportunity for sure but there was some long-term intelligence there that they decided in this moment to act on so do you think that signals some sort of sea change with the nettingahu and his his cabinet that you know we're just going to have to deal with it now, regardless of where it goes. Mike, that was all really well said. Yeah, I do. I mean, you talk about kicking the can down the road. We're at the end of the road. There's no more road. And I think that's the Israeli perspective here. This cannot be allowed to happen again.

And they can't trust anyone else to do this for them. Unfortunately, Israel has to handle this. And so, yeah, I do think the calculation has been made. Everything really became clear to me in BB's speech, the other night, Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech where he was addressing directly the Iranian people. Why would he be doing that if there wasn't something significant coming? And he was messaging that it's not going to be against you. I think, you know, to me and you with our backgrounds in national security, I mean, to me, that was clearly the beginning of something that will be unfolding in the days and weeks to come.

And that was a really important address that he made. I just don't, I don't see, they're not going back to status quo. And of course, we're right up against the U.S. presidential election. So here at home, everything's about domestic political considerations. And I'm not excusing what this White House has done because I think it's horrific. And I think a lot of other U.S. partners have been taking notes about just the, I mean, there's a whole laundry list of terrible foreign policy decisions. These guys have made the last four years. But this is like, you know, this is just another in a long line.

And I think it's also showing, unfortunately, it's putting questions in people's minds. like, are we a reliable partner? And unfortunately, I think Israel's quiet answer to this is no, or at least not at this moment. And so I do think, I hope that we rise to the occasion. I hope that we support whatever it is they're planning to do if they ask us for help. I can't say with certainty that we will. I hate to say that. Yeah, no, it's a sad thing to say. It's a disappointing thing to say. you know, and because we've, there's a long history here that, you know, Israel is sorry to interrupt you, but just to make the point, I mean, they've saved a lot of

American lives over the years during the GWAT. We got a lot of great intelligence from them that kept our people alive. Yeah, no, absolutely. Simone, I hate to do this. We're going to have to take a quick break because we've got some excellent sponsors and we're going to hear from them. But then we'll be right back with more. You know, every day we hear more about surveillance and how our right to privacy is being infringed upon.

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How many discounts does USA Auto Insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount. Safe driver discount. New vehicle discount. Storage discount. How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usaa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. Joining me once again is Simone Ladeen, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense

for the Middle East. And not surprisingly, we're talking about, well, the Middle East. Simone, what is your biggest concern in the moment? Is it the retaliatory strike by Israel against Iran after this ballistic missile attack? is it what's happening in Chesbola? Is it what's happening in Gaza still? Where is your immediate focus? I'm actually really concerned about our forces in the region. We have forces, of course, scattered across the region.

We have, I mean, some are more in harm's way than others. I'm also concerned about our citizens. We have a large community of Americans in Lebanon. And there hasn't been a neo to evacuate them. I know they're quietly exiting the country, but it's increasingly difficult. And I think we're viewed by the Iranian regime and its proxies as an extension. Israel's an extension of us, actually. You know, the great Satan and the little Satan, we're the great Satan.

And our troops have come under fire a lot over the years from many of these. these proxies in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen, we still have the Houthi issue in the Red Sea. So I think our forces are really at risk right now. And the fact that our political leadership is really hesitant to take any action has actually made it a lot more dangerous for them. So that's really, if you ask what am I most worried about? I'm worried about our men and women in harm's way at the moment. Yeah.

Well, although I do remember Kamala Harris saying during the debate that we didn't have any troops in harm's way or in combat zones or I forget how she exactly phrased it. But it was an interesting comment. I suspect she'd like to take that one back. But I take your point and I think all of us are thinking about our personnel that are stationed out there. When you look at the current environment with what's happening. in not just in Israel, but throughout the Middle East region. And you talk about U.S. foreign policy. Do you see, and we don't spend a lot of time talking politics here on the PDB or with a

situation report. So I don't want to get too far in that move. But do you see a significant difference between the Harris foreign policy and the Trump foreign policy specifically with the Middle East? I mean, yes. Yes, I do. Well, there you go. There you go.

There's your answer. So that was nice and concise. Okay, no, please elaborate if you could. I'd be happy to. Yeah, I mean, clearly there is. I think in the Trump administration, we did have a much different view of the region. And it was clear to us. And it is still clear to me that Israel can rise to be like,

the power in the region. And almost all of our golf partners really want to do business with them in all ways. They're seeing, by the way, they're seeing the successes on the battlefield is really successes on the battlefield. And they're just like chomping at the bit, you know, they want to benefit

from all of this innovation as well. And they want to, they want deep security partnerships with Israel. And that was something that I think we did a good job of not only recognizing in the Trump administration, but also encouraging and, you know, the end result was the Abraham Accords. So I think turn the page, October 7th happened. We can get into a deeper conversation about

why that was. But I think it goes back to the different foreign policies of the different administrations. Trump, for whatever you think of Trump, recognize that appeasement is not a solution. He walked back from the JCPOA because there was a lot of evidence that showed that the Iranian regime was still building nuclear weapons or they were still building a nuclear capability. And we know they already have this extensive missile capability. So turning them into weapons once you have the capability is it's like not that deep. I was always surprised about that because part of part of the, the case. confusion was that a lot of people didn't understand that that agreement in part was written at the behest of the Iranian regime. So the idea that we were going to trust but verify what we were

built into that agreement was the inability to monitor and to verify what was happening in a number of very important sites that were kept off of that agreement at the insistence of the Iranian regime. So, you know, again, John Kerry could stand there and say, well, we, you know, we trust, but we verify, well, yeah, that's good, you know, if you can verify all the various locations and sites and important facilities, but we didn't have that luxury. So that agreement's always, you know, I think there was confusion over that on the people who say, wow, but how do we, how do we dare back out of an agreement that like that now look, you know, but anyway, but I, you know what, I'll climb down off my, my soapbox now, Simone. Do you expect, actually, let's, let's look at the

recent attack again. Let's go right back. and with the time that we've got left. To what degree can you talk about the U.S. military's assistance in this latest missile attack by Iran against Israel? To what part did the U.S. play with all our resources that are sitting out there right now? My understanding is that our forces are authorized to assist with defensive actions and intelligence sharing that helps with defense, the air and missile defense. I don't know the specifics if we actually were involved in knocking down some of the missiles.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that we were or that we were involved in providing like real-time intelligence on what's coming from where. But the Israelis have a really, I mean, they have a world-class capability. Everyone else is salivated watching the Iron Dome work its magic the other night. but, you know, wanting, everyone wants the Iron Dome now. But it's, you know, what the Israelis need help with is replenishment. That's what they need. You know, we produce those rockets here that they use in the Iron Dome. And that was part of an agreement, you know, a couple of administrations ago.

So, you know, withholding those rockets and withholding other, material as well in an attempt to regain some kind of leverage over Israel at a time when they are under existential threat, it's like it's a bad look. And that's really what they need help with. That's really what the U.S. should be doing above all, in my opinion. Okay. Last question, Simone, with the tiny bit of time we've got left. And it's both a simplistic question and an unfair question. Those are my favorite kind. What's your prediction for a timeline for an Israeli retaliation against as a result of this Iranian attack? Interesting question. So let's break it down a little bit. Do I think it'll be one one action like this volley of missiles

the other night? I'm not sure. I think they might take some time preparing the battlefield and you know, doing like last night, I believe they took out a couple of Kud's force leaders in Syria. I think we might see a couple of things like that before they take whatever significant action they're going to take. They've shown strategic patience. And so I believe we'll be seeing that still. But like I said before, we have an election coming up. And regardless of who wins, we are going to have a change in administration.

And so I think they have an eye on that as well. I don't know if that means they're going to have to complete everything before the election, before the inauguration. I don't know. But I do think that that will, that is part of their calculus as they look to respond to this and hopefully start, you know, a new, a new day in the Middle East, which I think many would, frankly many would welcome at this point. Yeah, including a number of countries out there.

Well, look how optimistic we are. So a new day in the Middle East, that'll be our headline for the show. Simone Ladeen, thank you very much. Former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East. Look, I really appreciate your time. And hopefully, when we call you again, you'll agree to come back. My pleasure. It was great.

It was a lot of fun. Thank you. Excellent. Thank you. All right. Next, Israel's launched what it's calling a limited ground rate of southern Lebanon, this aimed at weakening Iranian-backed Hezbollah and pushing the group away from its border. Those are the objectives. Bill Roggio of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies will join us next to give us his insights on that.

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Situation Report. Now, while the Iranian attack on Israel dominates the headlines, Israel has also launched an invasion into southern Lebanon

this week. The IDF has described the incursion as, quote, limited, localized, and targeted

ground rates against the Iran-backed militant group, Hezbollah. The goal of the invasion is to push Hezbollah forces farther away from the Israeli border and target the group's infrastructure, including weapons stockpiles and rocket launch sites. Now, the IDF has been quiet about how long the operation is expected to last,

but U.S. officials have indicated that it's expected to last for days, not weeks. Despite a number of recent setbacks for Hezbollah, including the loss, of course, of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the group has been putting up a fight. On Wednesday, Israel announced its first combat deaths in Lebanon with eight Israeli soldiers being killed in two separate firefights. Okay, joining me now for more on the conflict in southern Lebanon is senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, an editor of the Foundation's Long War Journal, Bill Rogio. Bill, thank you very much for taking the time and joining us here on the Situation Report. Thanks. Always a pleasure.

Listen, there's so much going on here, right? I mean, it seems. like the whole region's on fire, but let's try to start from 30,000 feet. Talk to us about this ground incursion. How significant is this? I mean, obviously they've been conducting air strikes. They've obviously had very targeted intel-based operations, but the ground incursion. How significant from your perspective is it? This is significant, this ground incursion because up until this point, almost we're approaching. We're one-neutral. We're one-necursion. We're one week, less than a week, or five days from when Hamas launched its attack on southern Israel, the Israelis have been taking fire from Hezbole and Daly. And the Israeli response is essentially

up until the last month or so, been a tick for attack, a response. Hasboa launches rockets, Israel launch targets, rocket sites, maybe takes out some low-level fighters. But over the last several months, Israel has stepped up. The attacks haven't seen. tens of thousands of Israelis, up to 100,000 Israelis in the north of the place. Rocket and missile fire daily being targeting Israeli, military bases, homes, civilian infrastructure. So the Israelis have over the last a couple of months have been working to, I don't want to use the word escalate because that is, there's a negative connotation of that. But Israeli is up the price for Hezbollah launching these daily attacks, as it's right to do. The Israelis did not start attacking Hezbollah on October 8th.

Hezbollah started attacking Israel on October 8th of last year. So this is a response. The Israelis want just want Hezbo to stop. They want to be civilians to be able to return. So going into onto the ground in Lebanon is definitely. a step up from where the Israel is now the Israelis are committing ground forces the last war the Israelis fought in Lebanon in 2006 didn't go the way the Israelis expected has will survive that war international pressure after about 30 days force the Israelis to halt but this is different this is

a very different situation the Israelis have to remain committed to this if they show weakness here at this point in time, then Hezbollah survives. So the Israelis need to continue the pressure in Tartis. It wasn't just Osama Nasrallah, but key members of the military and political leadership of Hezbollah. Thousands of fighters were wounded in the pager and radio attacks that Israel launched, which was brilliant. So Israel has increased the price for Hezbollah in conducting its daily attacks, going into Lebanon. on it's yet another step. But again, the Israelis have to remain committed to this. Well, I mean, you raised a good point when you, when you mentioned the 2006 war, right?

Because at the end of that, I think it went on for some 34 days. But at the end of that, essentially, Chazbollah's leadership and their command structure was still intact, right? They really hadn't been successful in targeting. And that's completely changed. at this point, right? They've decimated at this stage after the past handful of weeks. They've decimated Hezbollah's command structure all the way up to the very top, including Nasrallah, of course. But are there concerns, whether it's on the part of the Israeli war cab at the IDF or here in the U.S. with the U.S. administration, are the concerns about what essentially is now a multi-front war, right? Because we have to remember.

And it's easy to forget, but we have to remember that they've still got operations going on against Hamas. And clearly now there's this direct conflict with Iran that's taken front and center. So are there concerns about this multi-front issue and their capabilities, their resources? So I'll address the capabilities and resources part of that question. Yes, very much concern. The Israelis particularly on resources are dependent on the U.S. and other countries for much of its weapons to continue the fight. Israel cannot produce the amount of weapons systems and munitions needed to fight a high

intensity war for an extended period of time. So the U.S. being its prime ally and the prime supplier, the Biden administration has not been, in my estimation, steadfast in its work. The Israelis have the will. I always say the Israelis. Bill, can I let me interrupt you just there because that's the, that's very, very interesting. When you say they haven't been steadfast in support, could that be operating on two tracks? Obviously, from a public perspective, it seems like all the White House has been doing

is kind of criticizing Israeli leadership, pushing for a ceasefire, certainly in Gaza, now obviously with Lebanon, pushing for a limited retaliation or response to Iran. But from what you've seen, behind the radar, behind the scenes, are they still fully supportive in terms of the resources, of the hardware, the military capabilities? So, I mean, we're seeing the public kind of with the White House, and I think there's some domestic politics there. But from the important side of, are we getting them the resources they need, which happens off the radar screen?

Anything to do that? Yeah. So the U.S. has at times held back, particularly munitions, 3,000. ground bombs. You know, I don't, so, and other munitions, and there's, there's pressure from certain Congress, congressmen, congresswomen to shut off all ain't to Israel. This is something unthinkable just about years. But I, you know, the, what is said done publicly matters?

Because what this does, it's just to me as important as the munitions behind the, and other weapon systems behind the scene. Because what Hezbollah sees, what are. Iran sees, what Hamas and Palestine Islamic jihad see, the Houthis, and the Iraqi and Shia militia sees, they see the U.S. publicly denouncing Israel or being critical or calling for the ceasefire. Then this gives them the, it fortifies them. It tells them, hey, all we need to do is continue fighting. The pressure is on Israel.

And then other countries become weak in their support. So that deteriorating situation on the political and diplomatic side, that really harms Israel in many ways that I think in a lot of ways we don't even understand. So the other part of your question was, is this going to be lead to a wider war? I argue there already is a wider war occurring. Hezbollah is attacking Israel daily. The Houthis launching attacks against Israel while shutting down the Red Sea and Gulf of aid and basically shutting 90% of the material going through the Suez Canal is no longer going through there,

increasing shipping rates and insurance and all that. You know, you have Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad and other terror groups and Gaza and the West Bank. You have the Iraqi and Shia militias attempting drone and missile strikes against Israel. That wider war exists already. This is, Iran has been escalating from day one has escalated this. work. Again, Hezbollah, Israel didn't attack Hezbollah on October 8th. Hezbollah attacked Israel and has been persistent in doing so since. Israel didn't attack the Houthis. Israel didn't attack the Iraqi and Shia militias.

This is Iran making and regional war and somehow it's perverse, but somehow Israel's response to being attacked to protecting its sovereignty is the Israelis esphile. I just, you know, when people mentioned this to me, I say to them, could you imagine if the, let's say, the drug cartels in Mexico attacked the United States and the Mexican government was permissive or supportive or just didn't care? Can you imagine what our response would be, would be, would our response be to escalate after that attack? That's how we're treating the Israelis. That's how the international. I don't know, Bill. our response right now with the current administration might be they would they would just say hey you know

have you heard about the CBP one app you know for asylum purposes um so I'm right I'm ready to talk about Anthony Blinken telling me that the world is far more secure so I you're probably right yeah but look I I take your point and and again going back to seven October look this this this is a conflict that Israel didn't ask for it was it was not their choice Do you get the impression that after a significant period of time where the White House has been pushing back, has been critical, again, you know, operating on multiple tracks, okay, fine, here's the resources. But for a variety of reasons, we're going to keep pushing for the ceasefire, which in my opinion, and I've said this before, a ceasefire in Gaza or a ceasefire under the current situation, meaning the aggressiveness of the Iranian regime and leaving their proxies relatively intact. although Hezbollah is taking a kick in the ass at this point. But that's basically just putting lipstick on a pig, right?

We're kicking the can down the road for someone else to deal with the problem. And our grandchildren will be talking about this and dealing with these conflicts as long as the Iranian regime in its current form and the IRGC are still operating under their same objectives. I could not agree with you more. Here's the other problem that Israel has. of support here in the United States as eroded over time. You know, I mentioned this earlier. The criticism that Israel is getting from congressmen is absolutely astounding. We wouldn't have

heard this 20 years ago. It's become a political issue, how President Biden has handled this publicly. I never thought I'd live today to see this. Listen, I have no problem with questioning foreign policy and, you know, what should the extent of our support for Israel be? We should have those discussions. But what we're starting to hear is we shouldn't be supporting Israel at all, that Israel is the aggressor, that Israel is the occupier, the problem here. And so Israel, to your point, Israel has to deal with these problems today. What is this going to look like three years from now? What is this going to look like five years from now, 10 years from now? Will the Israelis have the support and the capabilities? You know, this gets back to, you know,

a point I was making earlier. Israel has the will to fight these wars. It doesn't. have the capabilities. Could you just imagine if Israel had our resources, our manpower, our industrial capability and match it with our will? This, you know, 330 million people to recruit from for their military, you know, an industrial base, oceans between it. Israel does not have those luxuries that we have. If we had Israel's will and our warfighting capabilities, you know, we wouldn't have lost Iraq. We wouldn't have lost Afghanistan. Wars are ultimately about wills. And, you know, And Israel has it, but it's also about resources. And Israel, you know, a country of 10 million people with a tiny country, you know, besides a Delaware or, you know, that is bordered. It's a country of sanity and a sea of madness. And how we can, how Israel expects to survive in five years, 10 years or 20 years from now as it becomes increasingly isolated. That is to me the real question. And that is why these militias, you mentioned need to take their knocks now.

Yeah. And I think Netanyahu has probably come to a decision about maybe now's the time to make these changes. Maybe it's down to them as opposed to thinking somehow there's going to be a coalition because he's seen. I mean, days after the 7 October attacks last year, as brutal as they were, days later, the narrative had quickly turned, right, to, you know, say, look at the response from Israel. Well, it's horrible. Look, you've got the poor Palestinians, many of whom obviously support in one way or another, Hamas. And I think that, along with then the following basically year of being attacked by a variety of the Iranian proxies, perhaps, and we can talk about this in a moment, perhaps Netanyahu and the security cabinet, the war cabinet,

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Oh. And free waffles on. yours to claim book direct at storesville tales.com. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and editor of the Foundation's Long War Journal, our friend Bill Rogio. Bill, we were talking about southern Lebanon and then we started looking at the big picture in terms of what Netanyahu and the war cabinet in Israel or the security cabinet may

end up doing in terms of their response to the proxies, but I'll critically to the directly to the Iranian regime. But I think let me take just a little bit of a turn here and drill back down into what's happening in southern Lebanon, because that's sort of the immediate issue that we were looking at. How long do you expect this incursion to go on for? Is there some sort of strategic tactical objective? You know, they want to push back beyond the Latani River. What is the objective here from your perspective, how long do you expect this to go on? So the ultimate objective of the Israelis, as far as I understand it, talking to, you know, Israeli experts and the former generals and things of that, you know, security officials,

it seems the Israelis are intent on enforcing the security, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which means Hezbollah should not be south of the Latani River. So that's an area that spans about anywhere from 15,000. about 25 miles of southern Lebanon. The Lebanese military won't do it. The UN security forces there, peacekeeping forces won't do it. So the Israelis want to do this. Now, if they are serious about enforcing that fully, they're going to have to commit several divisions of troops to do this. And that means we would be talking about an operation of several months. It's unclear. What I suspect the Israelis are doing right now is sending a small force in and probing Hezbollah's response.

Its leadership has essentially been decapitated as a disarray. Its communication system is compromised and in complete disarray. Thousands of its fighters were wounded in those radio and pager attacks from a week and a half ago. So how does how is Hezbole able to respond to this? This is what I think the Israeli is, Israelis are going to probe and to see if it, if they sense that this is again, this is my estimation. If they, if the Israelis sense that Hezbollah is not putting up meaningful resistance, it may attempt to push Hezbollah all the way back to the Latani. But this would take several months. It won't be days or even weeks as, as we may be hearing from Israeli officials now. So it really ultimately depends on the ultimate objective. The Israelis may be hoping that,

Hezbollah cries uncle. So that might be part of the probing attacks as well. The operations that the Israelis have carried out over the last month plus, killing Fulad Shakur the same day, who was a top Hezbollah military leader, along with Ishmael Heinea, who was the head of Hamas, in Tehran, Iran of all places, the day of the coronation of the new Iranian president. And follow that up with the pager attack that that wounded the thousands of hesbola fighters and no doubt the Israelis were monitoring those communications for a long period of time the radius all of that i think the Israelis have been building an attempt to really put the pressure on hesbola to cry uncle here and get them to withdraw and end the fighting that's what i i hope that's not the case i hope the Israelis do decide

to take the fight to has what needs to you know i just keep looking at the big perpetuation that news is tightening on Israel. Yeah, two, two questions to follow that up with, Bill. I mean, one of them, you've talked about this and what you're kind of referring to with the pagers and the communications, you know, problems that they now face. Look, there's a paralysis, right, that I think is now pervading Hezbollah and frankly, Hamas and the Iranian regime, all of their, their elements, because they don't know to what degree they've been, penetrated, right, by the Israeli intelligence services, right? Because those operations, the pager operation, the handheld radio operation, the targeting of FAAD, the targeting of HANIA,

going after Nasrallah, all of those things took time, right? They didn't just happen overnight. There was years of work involved in developing sources and understanding the nature of Hezbollah and the Iranian regime even and how they operate within the IRGC. So I think there's a paralysis there and then the communications issue, you know, if you can't trust your comms, that's a problem. So I think they really are at a point where I don't know that they're ever going to have this opportunity again. And with the Iranian regime attacking them directly, you could argue that a retaliatory move by the Israelis would be something that would make sense, right? It would be a sort of a real crushing blow against the regime's infrastructure, right? Not against the people

of Iran, but against the regime's infrastructure and the IRGC, and whether that means going after their nuclear facilities, whether it means going in a big way after their oil industry, all of that is up for grabs right now. We don't know and we'd be speculating. And I apologize because I got lost in the rabbit hole, which I do sometimes, Bill. I'm guilty of it as well, as you can tell. My question for you was, for people who don't follow this a lot, you mentioned brief. You touched on, look, the Lebanese military is not going to do it. Can you talk just briefly? We don't have a lot of time left.

Could you talk briefly about the relationship between the Lebanese military and Hezbollah? Yes, so the U.S. funds the Lebanese military, but it's compromised. It's been compromised by, like, there are believed to be Hezbollah members within it. And it's weak. So it's, Hezbollah is the largest military force inside of Lebanon. And it's not the official army. So even if the Lebanese military had the will to go up against Hezbo, it doesn't have the capability to do so. It doesn't have the experience. Hezbo is hardened by fighting in Syria, by fighting in Iraq against U.S. forces, by fighting in Lebanon, by fighting against the Israelis.

It's a very sophisticated military organization. It's the most sophisticated in Lebanon. And so, again, I believe it to be compromised. It's weak at. best, compromised by Hezbollah at worst. It is the Lebanese military is not the solution here. It's part of the problem. And is there is there a scenario you see, right, where Hezbollah's influence and structure just collapses and the Lebanese people, you know, either don't care or are happy about it. But what fills that vacuum without Kezbollah? So there are rival factors. or, you know, sectarian factions within Lebanon. Amal as a rival Shia faction.

And then there's, you know, the Druzy and there's other Christians and other groups. The problem is that, like, and what we saw after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, is that, and who has killed some of the leaders of these groups, they came out and praised them and eulogized them. So the Lebanese people, again, I don't think there's a solution here either, unless Hezbole is so weakened militarily and devoid of leadership, it is possible that some of these groups may rise up against Tesla, but I wouldn't bank on this. The Lebanese seemed to want everyone else to die for their country. Yeah, the Iranian regime seems happy to have their proxies die pursuing the Iranian

regime's objective. Listen, Bill, this has been fascinating. I do hope you'll come back because I don't think this problem is going to solve itself anytime soon. Bill Rojo, the senior fellow, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Thank you again for joining us today. We look forward to having you back. All right. That's all the time we have for the PDB situation report. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and how could you not? Please reach out at PDB at thefirsttv.com. The PDB team loves to hear from you. And I'm not just saying that. They love to hear from you. And as they say, keep those cards and letters coming. Every week, the U.S. Postal Service truck, it pulls up right outside the PDB's secret lair. We've got a special parking space for it. And Carl a mailman drops off

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