The President's Daily Brief - September 1st, 2022. A Young Male in Bend Oregon Opens Fire in a Store. Why?

Episode Date: September 1, 2022

It’s September 1st. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ It’s a Special PDB this morning. The Main Brief today and all week is chosen by you ��� things we’ve discussed before but updated with new information, new data, and fresh analysis. First, there was a random shooting in Bend, Oregon on Monday — the attacker killed two people before killing himself. And his story is like so many before — a young man falling into violence. So we’re going to talk about the patterns we keep seeing in these shooting — school violence especially — with a focus on what we can all do to help. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, an update on the Battle for the South Pacific. More trouble in the Solomon Islands this morning. Finally, some good news on gas prices. But the reason for those lower prices is not so good. And wrapping up the podcast this morning, a listener question about the raid of Pres. Trump’s home — all those classified documents. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's September 1st. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. It's a special PDB this morning. The main brief today and all week is chosen by you, things that we've discussed before, but updated with new information, new data, and fresh analysis. So first up this morning, there was a random shooting in Bend, Oregon on Monday. The attacker killed two people. people before killing himself. And his story is like so many before, a young man falling into violence. So we're going to talk about the patterns that we keep seeing in these shootings, school violence, most especially, with a focus on what we all can do to help. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, an update on the battle for the South Pacific. More trouble in the Solomon Islands this morning. Finally, some good news. on gas prices, but the reason for those lower prices is not so good. And wrapping up the podcast this morning, a listener question about the raid of President Trump's home, all those classified

documents. But first, let's get started with today's main brief. Every so often these days, we read or hear about a heartbreaking story involving a shooting at a store or a school. And on Monday, we had another painful example. In Bend, Oregon, a 20, year old man walked into a grocery store, shot two people randomly, and then shot himself. He was well known to the folks in the community. He attended a local high school. As the people of Central Oregon mourned this morning and wonder why he did it, we're starting to get a clear picture of the answer. And sadly, it matches the profile and the motivation of those who have done this before, a young man in the throes of mental illness.

So this morning we are going to talk about that profile. Plus, what's happening to America's young men? And most especially, let's talk about a way that you and I can help solve this problem. So let's get started. The word that I just used a moment ago, profiling, has developed a very bad reputation. But as a CIA officer, I spent a good chunk of my career actually embracing it. And that's because in order to stop terrorism, my colleagues and I had to understand who the terrorists were to get into their minds. In other words, to stop terror, we had to understand the people using it.

With radical Islamic terror, our criminal was pretty consistent in their profile, young, male, and a mix of either being impressionable, bored, or angry. Now, how they carried out their terror, the weapon that they used, well, that varied. And while we thought about ways to neutralize the weapon, of course, we knew that our terrorists would always find a way to kill, no matter what obstinate. we put in their way. But this idea of profiling, it's actually really important to understanding how we can actually solve this issue, most especially school shootings. And it's important to profile our criminal here, to understand who they are, what makes them tick, all in hopes that we can stop

someone from ever becoming a killer in the first place. And we actually have a really good idea of who these school killers are. First, we know that upwards of 98% of school shooters are, are male. The Violence Project has some really great data on that. The second thing that we know is that at least 70% of all school shootings over the past 20 years have been carried out by young people around or under the age of 18. In other words, America's school shooters are young and male, just like to profile the terrorist that I worked against abroad. And sadly, it's very similar to this latest killer in Bend, Oregon, a 20-year-old man who had actually planned on attacking his old high school, but decided that he couldn't wait until when classes started next week.

So what in the world is going on with this small subset of America's young men? Well, that is a big, big question with lots of competing and complicated research and, of course, lots of opinion. But there's one thing that really stands out. Data show that about half of young male shooters report that they felt rejected by their parents and their peers. they describe themselves as being unwanted and untethered. And what psychologists will tell you, and what we all know from our own lives,

is that people who feel disconnected and rejected, untethered, well, they start to lose incentive to follow the rules, to be decent, and to think of consequences. They lose their sense of purpose. And then a small number of these young men find purpose in the infamy that comes with being, a killer. And that's true of this latest shooter out of Bend. And a diary that he left behind, he claimed that his family was deeply dysfunctional. Now, details are limited, but he said that he was always ignored at home, that the house was full of drama, and that his family, quote, played a bit of role in me becoming this way, end quote. Now, those who grew up with him say

that as the years passed by, he became increasingly angry and prone to outbursts, at school. He was isolated, a loner, and he would target people at random for his anger. One classmate said, quote, he was the person from our class most likely to become a school shooter, end quote. In the last two months of his life, he wrote that he wanted to die, like the shooters of the Columbine School massacre in Colorado all the way back in 1999. He wanted to die in infamy. In other words, folks, all the lights were flashing red within the kids. this young man for years. So if we take what we know about all of these types of killers, how do you reach them? How do you connect America's young men to healthy relationships?

Especially when you're not their mom or their dad. Well, a study came out in June, and I think it helps answer one part of that question. And the good news is, you and I can be part of the solution. Researchers at California State University published a study, looking at the mental health and well-being of 11,235 kids aged 9 to 13. They wanted to understand whether playing sports had any influence on a child's mental health, and if so, was it good or bad? They also wondered whether it mattered if the sport was individual, like track or tennis, as compared to a team sport, like basketball or baseball. What they found is really fascinating. For girls, it didn't especially matter if they joined a team or played on their own.

Sports in general helped improve their mental health and well-being regardless. But for boys, it was different. When boys played individual sports, it actually increased signs of anxiety and depression, withdrawal, and social problems. So the guess here is that the solo nature of those sports added personal pressure to be successful. But for boys who joined a team sport, the opposite was true. It lowered anxiety and depression, lowered withdrawal and social problems.

And when you think about it, the data here matches what we know to be true from our own lives. Team sports, especially for boys, well, they're about brotherhood, friendship, and community. It's about leaving behind the troubles of home or school and finding a group of buddies who give you support, camaraderie, and the connectedness that young men so desperately need. Now, this study doesn't explore other team-like activities, like band or mock trial, nor does it consider things like church youth groups. But I'm going to guess that those things are equally helpful too,

most especially for boys. Regardless, I highlight this very important study about team sports because not only does it give us hope for a solution, but it actually gives you and I a way forward to help. and that way forward is to be a volunteer, to coach. It doesn't really matter what the team sport might be or, frankly, for even any good at it. What matters is our presence in the lives of these kids, even if they're not ours. It reconnects these young men in particular to a stabilizing force, the structure for both connectedness and purpose.

So if you were the president this morning, I would encourage you to highlight this latest data at a California State University and share the good news that there's actually two things that people can do starting today that may very well prevent the next school shooting. First, if you have kids, consider getting them involved in team activities, most especially your sons. And when they're around other boys, encourage kindness and compassion. And if you don't have kids, volunteer to coach some. You might just be saving lives if you do.

ladies and gentlemen, a closer look at what's on my radar. Two quick briefs for you on the South Pacific and gas prices. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB folks. As always, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. Put these two on your radar. First, an update on the battle for the South Pacific. As listeners know, China and the U.S. are elbowing each other for influence in the South Pacific, trying to curry favor with island nations like Vanuatu and Kiribosh and the Solomons. Well, the goal for America is to secure friendships in the region should we ever have to go to war with China. Well, the most troubled of our relationships in that region has been with the Solomon Islands. That country signed a secret deal with the Chinese government earlier this year to provide

police protection and install a communication system. And now they're denying our Navy the ability to stop and refuel and resupply, despite allowing it for years before. The Solomon's Prime Minister announced Tuesday that he has suspended entry into his country's waters by any foreign navies. He said that he wants to design a new process for approval for these port visits, all in a bid to better monitor the area around his islands. While this is supposed to apply universally to all naval vessels from all countries, analysts are a bit suspicious that that's actually the case. Regardless, two ships have already been denied. About five days ago, the Solomon rejected a request by a U.S. Coast Guard vessel, the Oliver Henry, to stop for a port call.

Also, a British naval vessel was denied, too. Both ships were on a patrol to combat illegal fishing in the South Pacific, so no military activity, just doing what they have long been asked to do, to provide assistance to stop illegal fishing. If I were to guess what's going on here, I think I might have an idea. A couple weeks ago, America and India tried to stop a Chinese naval vessel from making a port call in the country of Sri Lanka. There was a lot of drama around that. And so I suspected Beijing picked up the phone and said to the Solomon's, Hey, I got a favor to ask about those Americans wanting to pop by for a port call.

At any rate, I'll keep monitoring these events, and as always, I will keep you posted. Finally, some good economic news to report on gas prices, although there is some. bad news to explain why it's happening. First, the good news. U.S. wholesale gasoline prices fell yesterday to their lowest levels since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Now, that should mean that over the next couple of weeks, you and I will see lower prices at the pump. But before you celebrate, there's some hidden bad news behind these good numbers. First, people in this country are struggling economically, and that means that they're driving less, which has decreased demand for gas. And that translates to lower prices at the pump. Also, the price of oil is falling

from its record high this summer because most economists and analysts are saying that we are in a global recession or darn close. So less economic activity means less demand for oil and thus lower gas prices. Finally, a very small reason for lower gas prices is Joe Biden's decision to release oil from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is a series of four. huge underground salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, all full of oil just in case of a national emergency. Analysts are saying that Biden's record drawdown of that emergency oil has lowered gas prices, but only modestly, maybe 10 to perhaps 15 cents a gallon. But for that benefit, we now have a very big challenge. Our emergency reserves are now down to their lowest

levels since 1984. It'll take six to 12 months to fill them back up, maybe longer. That means we have to cross our fingers and hope for no national emergency, which is a bit scary, because that reserve isn't just for an unexpected thing like war. It's sometimes used if we have a very cold winter, and it helps keep energy prices low. So let's hope Mother Nature is kind to us this winter, because if not, we have very limited emergency supplies, and our already high energy bills will likely go even higher. And with that, one more thing before I let you go, a listener question as always.

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Who knew your questionable music taste will be a money-making machine? Your style can make you cash. Start selling on Deepop where taste recognizes taste. Welcome back to the PDB, ladies and gentlemen. I've got one more thing before I let you go. Emily from the great state of Missouri wrote in asking about the raid of former President Donald Trump's home. So here's her question. Brian, I see lots of press reports and pictures of top secret documents taken from Trump's property.

Plus, I tried to read the FBI's affidavit, and honestly, I don't understand what I'm looking at, but it all seems bad. I think. What are your thoughts? Emily, great question, and I absolutely understand why you are confused. Most folks are. So let me see if I can clarify. Not so much in what we're seeing, but what we're not seen. In the days after the raid, there was a lot of speculation that President Trump had all kinds of very damaging secrets improperly held at his Mar-a-Lago home. The most damaging stuff that the media jumped all over was allegedly about America's nuclear weapons. But were they right? No, totally fake news.

And we know that because in the affidavit that was released, it listed the categories of information that the FBI anticipated that it would find. and nowhere in there was any reference to this nuclear information. However, what the affidavit did show was that there were secrets from other types of material. One category was H-C-S, which is just a fancy acronym for secrets related to human spies. In other words, the intelligence or the operations that people like me would be involved with or my informants. The other category of information that they thought that they would find was S-I, which is a another fancy acronym for secrets related to our electronic spying capabilities. In other words, the operations or the intelligence related to tapped phone calls,

emails, and texts. But again, what we didn't see, Emily, was any reference to RD information, which, again, another fancy acronym for very super secret nuclear information. In other words, the media hyped up a scare that was never there. Now, it's true that there absolutely is 18. HCS and SI information, both secret and top secret. I saw those pictures too. The president and his team have said that they declassified all of it as part of his presidential authority to do so. And for good or bad, all presidents do in fact have that ability. I briefed you on the 1988

Supreme Court case that actually allows for it. And if you missed it, that's all right. Just know this. It is settled law that presidents have sweeping authority to declassify, frankly, whatever they want for pretty much any reason. Now, that doesn't mean that it's smart and that they should do it, but it is legal. And that takes us to the next big debate. From my conversations with legal folks, there is one step that Trump and his team could or should have taken after he declassified those documents. He had to put them into the public domain while he was president. In other words, he had to talk about the information publicly, give it to reporters or investigators, even share it on social media.

And once he did that while president, it's no longer a type of information known as National Defense Information, or NDI. Because even if you have declassified NDI, well, you can still get into legal trouble. That's why you're hearing people talk about the Espionage Act and so forth. So I expect that this fight will go on, and it'll include conversations about NDI.

And at some point, you'll probably hear Joe Biden's team the Department of Justice say, okay, maybe Trump has the power to declassify stuff, but he didn't put it into the public domain while he was president. So that's NDI. An NDI has to be properly secured, and it was not at Mar-a-Lago. So Trump and his team broke the law. We'll see what the courts think of that argument, most especially the Supreme Court. But I'll tell you, if Biden's team really wants to escalate things, they will arrest Trump

right before the midterm elections on this NDI issue. And if Biden does that, well, all bets are off. We enter a very dangerous time for the country. Here's the hoping that we never see that happen. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world.

It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day.