The President's Daily Brief - September 21st, 2022. China Continues to Aid in Russia's War of Attrition. NYC to House Immigrants on Cruise Ships?

Episode Date: September 21, 2022

It’s September 21st. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ Welcome to a Big Five Update this morning. Five critical updates on stories we’ve covered previously that are shaping America — and the world. First, China is helping Russia in their War of Attrition by making some big purchases of Russian energy. I’ve got the latest. Second, an update on Dirty Green energy. A record price for Lithium means bad news for batteries. Third, a forecast on the cost of food for the next few years. Bottom line: you might want to start a garden. Fourth, the Middle Eastern country of Lebanon continues to fall apart. And you are paying to help put it back together. Finally, New York City is looking for a new place to house illegal migrants. They’re thinking about cruise ships. Plus, one more thing before I let you go. A listener commented that maybe an increase in arrests of illegals is actually a good thing. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's September 21st. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. Welcome to a big five update this morning. Five critical updates on stories we've covered previously that are shaping America and the world. First, China is helping Russia in their war of attrition by making some big purchases of Russian energy. I've got the latest numbers. Second, an update on dirty green energy. A record price for lithium means bad news for batteries. Third, a forecast on the cost of food for the next few years. Bottom line, you might want to start a garden. Fourth, the Middle Eastern country of Lebanon continues to fall apart, and you are paying to help put it all back together. Finally, New York City is looking for a new place to house illegal migrants, and they're thinking about cruise ships.

Plus, one more thing before I let you go, a listener commented that maybe an increase in the arrests of illegals is actually a good thing. But first, let's get to our Big Five update. We are going to start with the War of Attrition, which of course is the battle between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. Now, there are all kinds of reasons to care about this war, from the $60 billion that you are sending to support Ukraine to natural gas prices going up, which means that your electricity bills are going up too. When we've talked about this war of attrition in the past, I've used a boxing analogy with Ukraine and the U.S. in one corner and Russia and China any other. Well, this morning's update is on how China continues to prop up their boxer of choice in Moscow. And boy, are they doing that

through economic trade. So let's start with China's purchases of Russian oil. Beijing released its August numbers for how much oil they purchased from Russia, and here is what they are admitting. Imports of Russian oil are up 28% from a year earlier, and that includes shipments supplied via pipeline and the ocean. Now, officially, this is just short of the record number of imports set back in May, but if you include the hidden Russian supplies that are actually brought in from Malaysia, we are actually looking at a new oil record. Okay, moving on from oil, let's talk coal. China is now importing a record amount of Russian coal, the highest since 2017, which is when official statistics first started being recorded.

So coal shipments are now 57% higher than they were one year ago. Now, the reason for the increase of these coal shipments, well, it's actually twofold. Russian coal is so cheap as compared to their competitors that, well, everybody wants to buy it. Plus, China had a massive heat wave last month that demanded more electricity. And in China, that means burning more coal. And finally, let's talk Russian natural gas. China's natural gas imports from Russia tripled in the first eight months of this year with a value of $2.4 billion.

Now, while that's interesting, there's something else here that you should know. As China imported all this Russian natural gas, China also exported a record amount of natural gas to 164 million. million, specifically to Europe, including Spain and France. In other words, energy analysts are saying that China is actually reselling Russian natural gas to Europe. Now, China doesn't normally do this kind of thing, reselling energy. Last year, for instance, they only exported 7 million worth of liquefied natural gas, but this year, 164 million. In other words, there is a big market for natural gas and China wants in.

They've got cheap oil, cheap coal, and cheap natural gas from Russia, and they want more. But, you know, Russia's benefiting from this too. They're getting around sanctions and learning how to manipulate international markets that will actually serve it well moving forward. And they're going to need to, especially if they want to win this war of attrition. Russia continues to get punched hard in the battlefield. Big losses of equipment and personnel over the last couple of weeks. We may even see Moscow officially declare.

war and start up a national draft. Bottom line, China is in Russia's corner and that means you and I are going to have to be in Ukraine's corner too. More to come, folks. I'll be watching this very closely, as always. For your second update this morning, we've got some news on dirty green energy. That, of course, was our series last week on renewable energy and how dirty it really is for the environment, for people, and for America's national security. One issue in particular that we did, discussed was about batteries and a mineral inside of them called lithium. It's basically the new oil. It has to be taken out of the ground through mining, refined, and then put into batteries. Well, today we've got an update on lithium, and the bottom line is you are going to pay a lot

more for those lithium batteries and any energy stored inside them. Bloomberg news is reporting that the price for lithium carbonate hit a fresh record late last week, $71,315 a ton. That number has tripled in the past year, and it is more than 1,000% higher than it's low in July of 2020. Meanwhile, prices of lithium hydroxide, which involves a slightly different chemistry, but it's also used in batteries. Well, that is also gaining in price and closing in on an all-time record set in April. So what's driving these skyrocketing prices is pretty simple. basically a flat supply, no new mines to speak of, and skyrocketing demand. Well, unfortunately, that's not going to change anytime soon.

Companies involved in lithium production, companies like Mineral Resources Limited, are telling investors that supply will be deeply limited through at least the year 2030. So you can expect battery prices to keep going up, and not just for electric vehicles, but electronics of any kind that require batteries. I'll keep you posted. Before we take a quick break, I've got one more update for you. Food supplies are tight too. It's not just lithium.

Senior executives from companies like Bayer and ADM and others involved in the world's food supply are all saying that the availability of global crops is getting squeezed. In fact, they're telling their investors that the world will need another two years of good harvests, especially in North and South America to ease the pressure. Now, as I have briefed you on previously, things are looking pretty rough here in the United States when it comes to our harvests. For instance, we had a wet spring and then a dry summer specifically in the Midwest, and that took a toll on our crops, especially corn. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is reporting that corn production will be 3% lower than it projected just last month, and 8% below last year's total. As for wheat and rice, bad weather in China, India, and Europe has led to tighter supplies on all of those crops as well.

And that's even after Ukraine has actually been exporting more of its wheat. In fact, we should get to 80 to even 90% of Ukraine's normal exports, probably sometime this month. That's at least according to the Wall Street Journal. But even still, supplies globally are still very tight. And all of that helps explain why prices for ag products are way. up. Futures for wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade are up 17% over the past 12 months. Corn prices are up about 28% and soybeans around 14%. Plus, if you add in fertilizer issues, if you recall less supply from Europe because those fertilizer plants are actually shutting down over high natural

gas prices, well, folks, all and all, we are in for a very tough few years of food prices. So, you might want to get that garden in better shape and fill up that freezer when you see good deals on meat. Your pocketbook will probably thank you. And with that, we are going to take a quick break, but when we come back, I've got two more updates for you on the country of Lebanon and migrants in New York City. We'll be right back.

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I've got two more critical pieces of news for you this morning. First, an update on the country of Lebanon, which normally might not peak your interest, but it should starting today. Because as that country descends into chaos, you are actually paying to stabilize it, to include paying for the salaries of their military personnel. So here's that story. For the past few months, I've been briefing you about how bad things are getting in the Middle Eastern country of Lebanon.

We first started talking about it during the wheat wars. They used to buy a lot of Ukraine's wheat, but were reduced to virtually nothing after the war started. But lately, we have been talking about the people of Lebanon doing increasingly desperate things like robbing banks to get access to their own money. And that's because for years, the country has been increasingly collapsed into a failed state and the incompetent and frankly corrupt government has done bonkers things like locking down cash withdrawals. Well, in the past week, the robberies have actually continued,

and banks shut their doors for three days this week, all out of fear that there would be even more robberies. So as the international community scrambles to find ways to keep the country from descending further into a mad max-like ending, the United Nations is finalizing a plan that has you, the American taxpayers funding a financial rescue plan, specifically their military. According to reports from Reuters News, the Biden administration agreed to reroute 67 million of military aid. It will now go to, quote, livelihood support for Lebanese soldiers, end quote. In other words, we agreed to start paying their salaries.

We're talking about 80,000 service members in Lebanon right now. So they make about a hundred bucks a month, more or less, but with your taxpayer dollars, they'll be getting another $100 or so. Now, it's possible that this extra $100 might help a little bit. For instance, it'll probably pay for basic supply electricity via their generators, but it's not enough to do much. In other words, can't really fix the whole situation with $100 a month. By the way, you'll probably find this interesting.

Most of the Lebanese military has already taken side jobs to pay business. bills. Let me give you one example. Helicopter pilots are actually selling rides in their military helicopters to tourists. So you can keep that in mind if you travel to Lebanon anytime soon and well, you'd like a fun ride. At any rate, the country is a total mess. But as always, I'll be watching it. Because whether we like it or not, you and I are financial investors in whatever comes next. Finally this morning, an update on the immigration crisis in our country. Since May of this year, New York City has welcomed about 11,000 illegal migrants, with roughly 2,500 or so of those folks bust in by the governor of Texas. Last week I shared with you that New York was so strained in providing shelter that they were looking at housing migrants in summer camps that are normally used by kids.

No word yet on whether that's going to happen. But we can add in another unusual option to the list of solutions, cruise ships. At a news conference on Monday in an interview last Friday, New York City's mayor Eric Adams acknowledged that he and his team are considering the rental of cruise ships to house illegal migrants. He said, quote, we are not going to leave any stone unturned. We are going to find creative ways to solve this man-made humanitarian crisis, end quote. Mr. Adams, of course, is in this pickle, in part because of a New York City law that requires everyone must be given a roof over their head, no matter what material that roof may be. But those homeless shelters that they have on the

system are totally full. So the city has been renting hotels, looking at children's summer camps, and now cruise ships. Details, by the way, are very light on this new floating boat idea. But interestingly, the mayor did meet with Norwegian cruise lines back in June, although he claims he didn't talk about renting any of their ships. Regardless, I'll be keeping you posted on this very interesting story as America's sanctuary cities deal with the logistics of being sanctuary cities. And that, folks, is your big five update for this Wednesday morning. But I got one more thing before I let you go. We'll be right back. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's

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Welcome back to the PDB, ladies and gentlemen. One more thing before I let you go this morning. Lindsay in San Francisco, California wrote in about illegal migration and a record number of arrests that I shared with you all yesterday. So here was her question and her comment. in my view America has a limited toolbox that we can use to keep migrants from leaving their home countries. In other words, we can't really control those other countries and their leaders and their people. But we can protect our border and apprehend people who are crossing illegally. That is in our control. So if that's the case, shouldn't we be celebrating when apprehensions of

illegal migrants go up? Why should we be unhappy with these numbers going to? Up. To me, it signals increased efficacy of our efforts to control the border. Perhaps it's even a win. Well, Lindsay, this is such a great comment and a question, and I really appreciate the logic behind it. But here's what I would say. People are coming to America illegally not just because things are bad in their home countries. It's also because they're so much better off here. In other words, they're responding to a set of incentives. America, they can get free medical care, free schooling for their kids. The organizations give them free housing, free food, and access to jobs. In some cases, they can get free money, too. As an example, the WK Kellogg Foundation of the Kellogg's serial fame, they are actually

bankrolling a pilot program in New Mexico that will provide 330 illegal migrants 500 bucks a month for a year, just for being an illegal. So is it any wonder when you put together this package of freebies and incentives that people from around the world say, yeah, I want that. I want to go there. I mean, these illegal folks aren't lazy or stupid. They're humans. They're responding to incentives. And that's why we are seeing, for the most part, these record-breaking numbers. Because when you take this incentive structure and you combine it with the Democrat immigration policy of open borders and sanctuary cities, in other words, if you can get here, you can stay here. Well, you get exactly what we're getting. Record

numbers of people who want this freebie-filled life. And you know what? I don't blame them. Instead, I blame our politicians. So respectfully, Lindsay, I don't think that the increasing number of arrests is a good thing. I mean, I'm glad that we're stopping some of them, of course. But the increase in arrests is a symptom of a broken border. And frankly, a broken country. We have to change this perverse system of incentives. No number of arrests will ultimately change that. And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude your morning brief.

As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John, Chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. and the truth shall make you free. Good day.