The President's Daily Brief - September 22nd, 2025: NATO And Russia Edge Toward Direct Conflict & Trump’s Warning to the Taliban

Episode Date: September 22, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Russia once again tests NATO, as three fighter jets violate Estonian airspace in the most serious breach in years. We’ll explain why leaders say the alliance is edging closer to direct conflict. President Trump warns Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders: return Bagram Air Base to U.S. control—or face consequences. The New York Times reports Trump’s Justice Department shut down an FBI probe into border czar Tom Homan—after he was caught on tape accepting a bag of cash. And in today’s Back of the Brief—the National Counterterrorism Center warns al Qaeda’s threat to the U.S. hasn’t gone away, and may even be growing. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com.Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on goldAmerican Financing: Call American Financing today to find out how customers are saving an avg of $800/mo. NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.327% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit http://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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and learn how to convert an existing IRA or a 401k into a gold IRA. Again, just text PDB to the number 989-89-89. It's Monday, the 22nd of September. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And today, coming to you from, uh, looks like an airport lounge in an airport somewhere, still on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Russia is once again testing NATO.

Three Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace in the most serious breach in years. Putin's actions have NATO leaders warning that the alliance is closer than ever to direct conflict. Later in the show, President Trump is warning Afghanistan's Taliban leaders, return Bagram Air Base to U.S. control, or face consequences. Of course, one could ask, why would the U.S. want Bagram back? Plus, the New York Times reports Trump's Justice Department shut down an FBI probe into border czar Tom Homan after he was caught on tape accepting a grocery bag full of cash. Well, I don't know about you.

But I know that when I accept bags of fat stacks, there's usually an, and explanation. We'll have those details. And in today's back of the brief, the National Counterterrorism Center is warning that Al-Qaeda, remember them, well, that al-Qaeda's threat to the U.S. hasn't gone away and may even be growing. That's the thing about the war on terrorism. You may be tired of talking about or thinking about terrorism, but the terrorists, they never tire of it. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Russia is once again testing NATO, and what's becoming clear is that a dangerous game of chicken is playing out over Eastern Europe. The latest flashpoint came just days ago

when three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets crossed into the sovereign airspace of NATO member Estonia. The jets flew over Vandlu Island in the Gulf of Finland and remained inside Estonia's territory for about 12 minutes, the longest such violation in years. For perspective, most previous incursions lasted just seconds. Quick passes that Moscow could dismiss his navigational error, But 12 minutes is no mistake. It was deliberate. These aircraft had no flight plans filed,

their transponders were switched off, and they refused to respond to communication attempts. Italian F-35s assigned to NATO's Baltic air policing mission scrambled to intercept, but the Russian pilots ignored them, continuing their incursion until finally leaving Estonian skies. Estonian officials called the breach a, quote, brazen violation, well, that's probably appropriate, of sovereignty and immediately invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which calls for emergency consultations among alliance members whenever the security of one state is threatened. Russia, for its part, flatly denied any violation. Well, there's a surprise.

Claiming its aircraft remained over neutral waters. It's the same playbook we've seen from them before, provocation, denial, and then blame-shifting. And frankly, Russia continues to use the same playbook because it works. They're not apparently concerned about NATO-involveillance. invoking Article 4. As we know, this isn't an isolated incident. This kind of testing of NATO airspace is becoming a pattern. Other frontline states, including Latvia and Lithuania, have raised alarms in recent months, pointing to a surge of Russian aircraft flying over the Baltic sea with their transponders switched off. These are not routine patrols. They're designed to

unsettle, to probe, and to send the message that Russia will not respect NATO's eastern flank. As we've already reported here on the PDB, earlier this month, Moscow pushed even further when Russia launched a massive drone assault that spilled into Polish airspace. Between 19 and 23 drones crossed the border overnight on September 9th and 10th, marking the most serious violation of NATO territory since Putin's invasion of Ukraine began. Polish defenses aided by NATO allies shot down several of the drones, but debris rained down near civilian areas. Warsaw, responded by invoking Article 4, just as Estonia did, demanding consultations with its allies and stronger guarantees of defense. That Polish incident directly triggered NATO's launch of Operation

Eastern Century, the new multinational air defense mission over Poland. And just this week, UK typhoons began flying sorties over Polish skies as part of that mission. They're expected to be joined soon by aircraft from Denmark, France, and Germany. In other words, the air over Poland is now NATO's front line, a constant patrol zone meant to keep Russia in check. So what are we really seeing here? The answer is what military strategists call the escalation ladder. Step by step, Russia is climbing that ladder. Each violation, whether it's MiG-31's lingering over Estonia, drones flying into Poland, or aircraft running dark with transponders switched off, is a deliberate test. Moscow wants to probe NATO's vigilance, its rules of engagement, and most of all its political will. It wants to normalize

these provocations, to make them seem routine, all while avoiding direct confrontation. Push just far enough to rattle, but not far enough to trigger an immediate military response. For NATO, the dilemma is clear. Respond too lightly, and Moscow will grow bolder. Respond to forcefully and the risk of miscalculation spikes. That's why we're seeing Article 4 consultations, increased air patrols and the creation of multinational missions like Eastern Century. These are carefully calibrated moves meant to reassure frontline allies while warning Russia not to push further. But here's the danger. The escalation ladder can have very unpredictable results. One drone strays too far, one Russian jet ignores an intercept, one NATO pilot makes a split-second call, and suddenly the alliance is dealing with a

downed aircraft or worse. That's the kind of incident that could put our Article 5, NATO's collective defense clause on the table. And once that door opens, well, the path toward direct conflict becomes very short. For countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, these aren't abstract risks. They're living with them every day, watching Russian aircraft probe their borders, hearing the sound of NATO jets scrambling overhead, knowing that tomorrow's provocation could escalate into something far more serious. And for NATO as a whole, the credibility of its security guarantees is at stake. Every time Russia violates allied airspace, the alliance must respond, because if it doesn't,

the deterrent power of NATO itself comes into question. That credibility is the cornerstone of European security, and it's exactly what Moscow is trying to undermine. So, where does this leave us? Well, war is, of course, not inevitable, but we're in a situation where one miscalculation could drag NATO and Russia into a direct clash, neither side wants. The question now is whether NATO can continue to manage that balance, deterring Moscow without tipping into escalation, or whether the next Russian provocation pushes the alliance over the edge.

Putin, if he were a rational, clear-thinking individual who sits on the normal logic train, well, he'd understand that if the Kremlin can't defeat Ukraine, they have no chance of taking on Ukraine, NATO and the U.S. at the same time. He would also understand that NATO has no interest in encroaching on Russia. That's his old-school Soviet upbringing, feeding his paranoia and delusions of rebuilding the Soviet Union in some fashion. But Putin doesn't have a seat on the logic train. You can't predict his intentions or thoughts by using traditional Western values and logic. In his mind, the glory of the Soviet Union needs to be revisited.

And in that construct, he imagines NATO is somehow a threat to Mother Russia. Putin lives and thinks like he's stuck in the 1960s. All right, coming up after the break, President Trump threatens the Taliban over Bagram Air Base, and a New York Times report says that Trump administration's Justice Department shut down an FBI probe into border czar Tom Holman. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question about protecting your hard-earned assets. When you hear about inflation worries, or when you hear that the national debt is over $37 trillion, or you just look around and see all the global uncertainty, do you ever think you,

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It's mozzarella for Monterey Jack, and they know what's right. With shipped, it's never just delivery. It's shopped same day in the same way you would. Use code savings to become a shipped member for half off only $49 at shipt.com slash offer. Terms apply. Welcome back to the PDB. President Trump is making clear to Afghanistan's Taliban rulers that either they return Bogram Air Base or praise for consequences, four years after America's chaotic exit from the country. Over the weekend, the president took to Truth Social, posting, quote, if Afghanistan doesn't give Bagram Air Base back to those that built it, the United States of America, bad things are going to happen. Now, he wrote that last bit in all caps, just so the Taliban will know he's serious, because the Taliban hates all caps. Trump later demanded the base be handed

over, quote, right away, and delivered an ominous promise of, quote, if they don't do it, you're going to find out what I'm going to do, end quote. The president offered no elaboration on what his threat would entail. Now, this wasn't Trump's first demand for the Taliban to hand over the base. Days earlier in London, standing alongside British Prime Minister Kier-Starmer, he called the Biden administration's 2021 Afghanistan pull out a surrender, previewing his demand with what he teased as, quote, a little breaking news. His case for Bogram is this. The base sits, quote, an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons. So the point is clear. The air base's value stretches far past Kabul. Of course, the base sits in Afghanistan, whether the U.S. likes it or not, a sovereign nation now

run by the Taliban. It's probably worth asking, does the U.S. really want to jump back into that hot mess? The history of Bagram only heightens the drama. For background, the base was built by the Soviets in the 1950s, later claimed and enhanced by U.S. forces after 9-11, it was the Crown Jewel. It was the crown jewel of America's two-decade global war on terror, its largest military installation, and the hub of air campaigns and special operations, as well as the ultimate symbol of American presence in Afghanistan, before the Biden administration's poorly planned and executed midnight withdrawal back on July 1st of 2021. In that abandonment, American troops slipped out without telling Afghan allies, leaving behind more than $7 billion in military equipment, much of it later

appropriated, of course, by Taliban fighters. Six weeks after the withdrawal, as Kabul fell, the Taliban seized the base. The only people who couldn't see that coming were folks who can't spell Afghanistan. By August of last year, the Taliban marked a third anniversary of their takeover with a triumphant display and parade of abandoned U.S. armor. In response to Trump's threats and social media posts, the Taliban didn't hesitate to push back. On Sunday, the Taliban's chief spokesman posted on X that Afghanistan's, quote, independence and territorial integrity were of the utmost importance, accusing Washington of violating the 2020-Doha agreement, a deal Trump himself signed that pledged the U.S. would not threaten Afghan sovereignty. The spokesman in his post

went on to urge Trump to adopt, quote, realism and rationality. In the same breath, the Taliban underscored ongoing negotiations with U.S. envoys, including a supposed prisoner swap arrangement. although Washington has not confirmed the details of such talks. What is known is that earlier this year, White House hostage envoy, Adam Bowler, quietly traveled to Kabul for face-to-face talks with the Taliban's foreign minister, the first such meeting since that 2021 disastrous pullout. The visit centered on now-released American hostage to George Glezman, who had also touched on broader diplomatic ties and even investment prospects,

according to a Taliban readout. For Trump, demanding Bogram's return is the chance. to rewrite what he brands Biden's greatest foreign policy failure and to be within a short strategic flight of Beijing's nuclear sites at the same time. Okay, shifting gears to U.S. domestic issues. President Trump's borders are Tom Homan was reportedly called on audio tape in an FBI sting pocketing $50,000 in cash, a case of the Trump White House dismissed as politically driven and legally hollow. Back in September of 2024, Undercover agents posing as a businessman, handed Holman a grocery bag stuffed with fat stacks

during what officials described as a long-running counterintelligence probe that hadn't even targeted Homan to begin with. The meeting was captured on audio tape, and Homan allegedly floated the idea to the supposed businessman that he could help secure border contracts in a future Trump administration. When recently pressed by News Nation correspondent, Homan did not hold back, calling the allegations, quote, bullshit. According to people familiar with the FBI case, Holman was drawn into the sting only after a separate probe target suggested in 2023 that

paying him $1 million could open the door to immigration and border security contracts. By the following year, the FBI had set up its operation. Inside the Justice Department, prosecutors weighed charges ranging from wire fraud to bribery and conspiracy. But in the end, they concluded the case was too thin and it crumbled. And here's something I'd like to point out. Holman wasn't in government at the time, had no binding promises, and Supreme Court rulings in recent years have sharply narrowed what counts as corruption. In the end, federal officials concluded the elements just weren't there.

According to MSNBC, the first to report the sting, investigators intended to wait and see if Holman followed through. But the matter fizzled out once Trump returned to the White House. FBI Director Cash Patel and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche have since defended the cases shutdown, stressing that a full review found, quote, no credible evidence of any criminal wrongdoing. Patel added that the DOJ must keep its eye on real threats, not, quote, baseless investigations. The Trump administration has doubled down. Spokeswoman Abigail Jackson branded the sting a, quote, blatantly political investigation left over from the Biden era. She accused liberals of wasting

resources targeting Trump allies while ignoring, quote, real criminals and the millions of illegal aliens who flooded our country. Jackson underscored that Holman had, quote, not been involved in any contract award decisions, praising him instead as a, quote, lifelong public servant, doing a phenomenal job. The broader context matters here. Homan, who once ran immigration and customs enforcement during Trump's first term, went on to launch a consulting business for companies seeking immigration-related contracts. Homan had long telegraphed his intent to return to a White House administration, writing on social media in November 2023, quote, I promised President Trump that if he goes back, I go back, and I'm going to run the biggest deportation operation this country's ever seen,

and quote. And today, as our listeners know, that pledge is in motion. Democrats claim the investigation was shut down to shield Trump's ally, but the administration remains firm that it was just another Biden-era partisan fishing expedition, and it collapsed when real legal scrutiny was applied. For Hohman himself, the sting has, well, done little to dent his standing at the center of Trump's immigration machine. Now, what isn't clear in the information released to date is why Homan was accepting the cash. It appears that he was offering future consideration if and when he became a senior member of a future Trump administration. Now, I'm not a lawyer, so I won't speak to whether or not the legal case in the now dismissed investigation was sound or weak. But I think most people could agree

the optic ain't good. Accepting a sack, stuffed with $50,000 in cash for whatever reason, sounds sketchy. At a minimum, it's not unreasonable that Holman and the administration should provide a more transparent explanation than it's bullshit. If it's legitimately bullshit, then provide sufficient transparency so that it doesn't become another self-inflicted wound. Coming up next in today's back of the brief, a new intelligence memo, says al-Qaeda and its Yemen affiliate remain determined to strike the U.S. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about your personal finances. Now, the Fed has finally dropped interest rates, and that's great news for American homeowners.

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Bro, Skycoin, way better than points. Never fly during a Scorpio full moon. Just tell the manager you'll sue. Instant room upgrade. Stop taking bad travel advice. Start comparing hundreds of sites with kayak and get your trip right. Kayak, got that right. In today's back of the brief, nearly a quarter century after the 9-11 terror attacks,

al-Qaeda is once again signaling it wants to strike America. Washington's top counterterrorism officials are sounding the alarm. In a memo sent to law enforcement Friday, the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, better known as the end, NCTC, warned that al-Qaeda and its Yemen-based affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, are actively trying to weaponize propaganda and global conflicts, especially those involving U.S. troops to spark fresh attacks. The Center warned that the Islamic Terror Group's recent calls for violence

are a stark reminder of al-Qaeda's enduring intent and capability worldwide. The memo went beyond abstract threats. Federal and local officials were urged to tighten their own personal security, such as being aware of any surveillance, not advertising travel plans, and concealing badges outside the workplace. But it also flagged the American public's vulnerability, pointing to so-called, quote, soft targets like sports arenas, concerts, and other mass gatherings. Created in 2004, under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the NCTC, stressed that its coordination with state and local law enforcement is meant to give agencies, quote, the tools to combat target attempts by Al-Qaeda.

The group designated a foreign terrorist organization for more than 25 years continues to adapt. A Department of Homeland Security Report issued late last year went further, concluding al-Qaeda has, quote, reinvigorated its outreach to Western audiences and remains committed to striking inside the U.S. According to the warnings, the Islamic Terror Group continues to probe for weak spots, and once again, U.S. security officials are pressing for vigilance at home. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief from Monday the 22nd of September. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. Now, I hope you had a chance over the weekend to catch our latest episode of the PDB Situation Report.

As always, you can watch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and on all podcast platforms. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. It's Mushrooms with me, Maddie Matheson. You know what's better than thinking about dinner too hard? Not. Stop that. And just choose mushrooms. Five minutes. Done. Dinner's that easy and you feel like a genius. It's not magic. It's mushrooms. Stop stressing at mushroomcouncil.com.