The President's Daily Brief - September 27th, 2024: Hezbollah Proves Resilient, Putin Revises Moscow's Nuclear Doctrine, & China's Nuclear Submarine Disaster

Episode Date: September 27, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:     As leaders in Jerusalem mull a ground invasion of Lebanon, we’ll take a deeper look at Hezbollah’s military capabilities and the challenges Israel faces when it comes to significantly degrading the terrorist group’s operations. In major development out of Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin is revising the country’s nuclear weapons doctrine and issuing fresh threats at the west over NATO’s ongoing military support of Ukraine. We are learning of an embarrassing setback for the Chinese military, as reports emerge that the CCP’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in an accident sometime in the spring. In our 'Back of the Brief' segment, we’ll examine reports that Russia is scheming with their allies in Iran to arm the Yemen-based Houthi militants with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.     Email: [e-mail]  Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB  MySudo: Go to https://MySudo.com/MIKEBAKER & use code 'MIKEBAKER' to get 30 days free on a SudoPro yearly subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All right. Let's get briefed. as fighting continues to escalate between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, with leaders in Jerusalem now mulling a ground invasion, will examine Hezbollah's military capabilities and the potential challenges that their infrastructure poses to Israel. Later in the program, in a major development out of Moscow, Russian President Putin has altered the country's nuclear weapons doctrine

and issued a fresh nuclear threat at the West over nation. NATO's ongoing military support of Ukraine. Plus, we're learning of an embarrassing setback for the Chinese military as reports emerge that the CCP's newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in an accident sometime in the spring. And in today's back of the brief, we'll examine reports that Russia is scheming with their allies in Iran to arm the Yemen-based Houthi militants with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles and that's a development that could spell disaster for commercial shipping interests in the region.

Well, that Putin fellow is quite the multitasker. He's working covertly with the Chinese to produce long-range attack drones. He's trading advanced weapons technology to the North Koreans for munitions and missiles, and now he's engaged in deadly shenanigans with the Iranian regime to provide the Houthis with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles. Oh, and, well, let's not forget his invasion of Ukraine and that ongoing conflict. But first, today's PDB spotlight. I want to begin with a deeper look at Hezbollah's military capabilities inside Lebanon

and the challenges that Israel faces when it comes to significantly degrading the terrorist group's operations. As regular listeners of the PDB are aware, and I certainly hope you're regular listeners, we've been focusing a lot on the blows dealt by Israel to Hezbollah's leadership ranks, and while it's true that their top brass have been getting absolutely gutted by Israeli forces, the terror group's unique structure is proving resilient. Three sources familiar with Hezbollah's operations, exclusively told Reuters that due to the group's flexible chain of command and extensive tunnel network housing vast quantities of munitions,

they are mostly weathering the current aerial bombardment by Israel. Now, don't get me wrong, Israel's operations, against Hasbola have reportedly left the group in a state of shock. Operations kicked off last week with the covert detonation of booby-trap pagers and walkie-talkies and continued this week with a massive air campaign that has killed at least 600 people, including many senior leaders of the group. One source said that the pager and radio explosions sidelined at least 1,500 fighters, many of whom were either blinded or otherwise injured. Regarding the air campaign, in just the past week,

Hezbollah has lost the commander of their elite Radwan forces operations unit, the commander of their Air Force, and the chief of their missiles and rockets division. But sources told Reuters that Hezbollah swiftly appointed replacements, noting that the group is organized in a way that allows them to quickly plug leadership holes when members are killed. Now, this has allowed them to avoid major disruptions to their chain of command and to continue their coordinated rocket attacks on northern Israel. When it comes to Hezbollah's broader fighting force, those injured in the pager attacks, well,

they represent just a fraction of their membership. While estimates vary slightly, Western intelligence assessments say the terror group has at least 40,000 to 50,000 fighters, although it's unknown just how many of those are full-time soldiers, and that's according to a report from the New York Times. Then there is the group's arsenal, which analysts say may be the largest stockpile of weapons in the world held by a non-state actor. Oh, thanks, Iran. While Hezbollah has launched at least 7,000 rockets, explosive drones rocket-propelled grenades and mortars into northern Israel since 7 October, they have mostly kept their powder dry on their more advanced weapons systems. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the militants have anywhere from

150,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles supplied over the years by Iran, Syria, and Russia. This arsenal includes more than 60,000 long-range unguided rockets, more than 20,000 unguided ballistic missiles, and at least 150 guided ballistic missiles. Now, we saw the first use of one of those ballistic missiles on Wednesday, which Herzbollah fired at the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv, though it was intercepted. Analysts say Hezbollah would likely only start using their more advanced missiles in large numbers in the event of a full-scale war. We should stress that if they do have to dip into their broader arsenal in a significant way, Hezbollah can lean on their backers in Iran, who have been

helping the group smuggle in additional munitions at a rapid pace over the past several months, and that's according to Reuters. Further complicating matters is the militant group's expansive of secret tunnel networks where they house much of their arsenal. The underground networks are described by Hezbollah's backers in Iran as, quote, missile cities, many of which are thought to be located under mountains in southern Lebanon. Regional analysts note that little details are known about these top secret facilities and their location inside Lebanon's mountains and hilltops makes it next to impossible for warplanes and missiles to penetrate the tunnels. Still, others note that the IDF has a lot of experience, obviously, dealing with Hamas' tunnels inside Gaza, and that they could

apply a similar strategy regarding Hezbollah's tunnel network. All right, coming up after the break, in a major development out of Moscow, Russian President Putin is engaged in what is fast becoming one of his favorite hobbies, threatening the West with his nuclear arsenal. In his latest display of saber-rattling, Putin has altered the country's nuclear weapons doctor. and issued a fresh nuclear threat at the West over NATO's ongoing military support of Ukraine. Plus, we're learning of an embarrassing setback for the Chinese military, as reports emerge that the CCP's newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in an accident sometime in the spring. I'll have those stories when we come back.

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Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com. Welcome back to the PDB. I want to turn our attention to Russia, where President Vladimir Putin has just altered his country's nuclear doctrine and upped his threats against the NATO alliance. Putin, addressing Russia's Security Council on Wednesday, warned that Moscow could use nuclear weapons if it was struck with conventional Western missiles. That's a message clearly meant to intimidate the U.S. and other Western nations,

who are deliberating over whether to allow Ukraine to use their weapons in long-range strikes on Russian territory, and that's according to a report from the Associated Press. Unlike past nuclear threats from Russia, this one came as part of an official revision of Russia's nuclear doctrine that significantly lowers the stated threshold for the possible use of nuclear weapons. Specifically, Putin said that an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear power, but with the participation and support of a nuclear power, would be seen as a, quote, joint attack on the Russian Federation. To be clear, the altered doctrine does not specify if Russia would use nuclear weapons in such a scenario, only that they could, leaving much room, obviously, for interpretation.

Putin added that it would be considered if they detected a major launch of Western-made missiles or drones. He also said that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if its ally Belarus came under attack by conventional Western weapons. Now, it's a significant revision, considering their last published nuclear doctrine issued back in 2020 said Russia would only consider using nuclear weapons if it first came under a nuclear attack by an enemy or faced a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state. On Thursday, representatives for the Kremlin said the revision was intended as a message to Western countries, as they debate whether to loosen restrictions on the use of Western supply.

weapons by Ukraine. In a statement, the Kremlin said, quote, this is a signal that warns these countries about the consequences if they participate in an attack on our country by various means, and not necessarily nuclear ones, end quote. The spokesman added that a decision on whether to formally publish the revised nuclear documents would be made before the end of the year. Now, I don't want to belittle fears about nuclear escalation, but we have heard these threats. threats before from the Putin regime. Ukrainian leaders have increasingly encouraged the West to ignore such saber-rattling and greenlight the use of Western weapons for strikes inside Russia. They've said that the success of the Kersk incursion exposed Putin's arbitrary red lines as utterly meaningless,

and that the dictator's threats should no longer be taken seriously by the West. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky was in Washington, D.C. on Thursday for meetings with President Biden, Yes, that's correct. He's still president. And senior lawmakers also in Capitol Hill to make his case for long-range strikes, though President Biden has so far declined to alter the policy. Okay, I want to shift focus to China, where we've learned that a new nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in late May or early June near Wuhan, apparently as it was leaving the shipyard, dealing a major blow, of course, to Beijing's naval expansion. The incident which Chinese authorities sought to cover up, well, there's a surprise, also raises major questions about how corruption within the CCP is impacting Beijing's military modernization efforts. According to an exclusive report from the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, the Zhou-class submarine, a next-generation nuclear-powered vessel, was being readied along the Yangtze

River for its maiden voyage. Officials with the Pentagon said it's part of Beijing's attempts to establish maritime superiority over the U.S. by deploying new attack submarines within what's referred to as the first island chain. That's a string of territories stretching from Japan through Taiwan to the South China Sea. Satellite imagery captured in late May showed the submarine moored at the Wuchong shipyard, but suspicions were raised in the intelligence community back in early June when a former U.S. submarine officer shared social media posts of satellite images that showed crane activity working to salvage a vessel from the riverbed. U.S. officials suspect that the submarine may have been carrying nuclear fuel, though they haven't

confirmed that. But experts outside the U.S. government believe this is likely, given the vessel's nuclear-powered status and the fact that it was in the final outfitting phase. There's also uncertainty surrounding casualties, as no reports of injuries have surfaced, but the Chinese government's violence does leave, obviously, lingering questions. This failure, which the People's Liberation Army has not publicly acknowledged, casts doubt on the transparency and accountability within China's defense industry long criticized for corruption and inefficiencies. A senior U.S. defense official commented, quote, it's not surprising that the PLA Navy would try to conceal the fact that their new first-in-class nuclear power to attack submarine sank Peerside. The

incident raises deeper questions about the PLA's internal accountability and oversight, end quote. While the submarine has since been salvaged, repairs are expected to take months. Flooding of the interior would have caused, of course, extensive damage, requiring cleaning, replacement of electronics, and likely a full rebuild of key components, including electric motors. For comparison, in 1969, the nuclear-powered USS Guitaro sang due to construction errors while docked at a California shipyard in San Diego. Now, it took 32 months to restore that submarine, delaying its deployment. The full extent of the damage remains unclear, but this incident will significantly hinder China's plans to expand its nuclear submarine fleet and challenge U.S. naval supremacy in the South China Sea,

at least for the short term. It's just surprising that the Chinese Chinese regime and its PLA weren't transparent about the incident. I mean, look, they were very open about the origins of COVID, as an example. It's not like them to be secretive and misleading with the international community. Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, we'll examine reports that Russia is scheming with their allies in Iran to arm the Yemen-based Khuti militants with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles. Can you imagine that, Russia and Iran scheming together? what is this world coming to? I'll have the details when we come back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance.

With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at USAA.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. In today's back of the brief, reports are emerging that Iran is engaged in ongoing secret discussions between Russia and Yemen's Poti rebels to transfer advanced anti-ship cruise missiles to the Iranian-backed terror organization. Now, this potential arms deal underscores the ever-deepening military ties between Tehran and Moscow and is sparking major concerns about the threat that these advanced missiles could pose to military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. According to Reuters, citing three Western and regional sources, secret negotiations between Russia and the Houthis have been ongoing throughout

2012, beginning under former Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May. Two regional officials confirmed at least two meetings in Tehran with more expected in the coming weeks. These negotiations center on the potential transfer of dozens of P800 onyx anti-ship cruise missiles, which have a range of approximately 186 miles. These missiles are designed to skim the ocean surface at supersonic speeds, which would make them highly difficult to intercept. If acquired, the missiles could increase the Houthi's ability to strike U.S. and other Western warships patrolling the Red Sea, along with,

of course, commercial shipping vessels, which the group has targeted since last year's 7 October attacks by the Iranian-backed Hamas terror organization. Is anyone else seeing what all this chaos has in common? Additionally, the missiles could be used against land targets, posing a threat to Saudi Arabia, a frequent target of Quddi. missile and drone attacks. A Western intelligence source confirmed the negotiations to Reuters, but said Moscow has not yet made a final decision to move forward with the transfer. The source, added that Iran, has been brokering the talks from the shadows seeking to avoid the appearance of direct involvement. Oh, look at that. Well, that is, after all, while Iran has spent all this

time, money, and effort to build their various proxy groups. Now, Iran and Russia have not commented on the reports, while the Houthis have denied any knowledge of such talks. We should note, this potential transfer aligns with Moscow's strategy as Western nations debate allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory to counter Putin's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In June, President Putin warned that Moscow could supply long-range weapons to Western adversaries in retaliation for arms sent to Ukraine. Now, even if the transfer goes through. Sources suggest Russia would still need to help the Khutis by providing technical training and operational assistance. Reacting to the report, a senior U.S. official told Reuters,

quote, the Saudis are alarmed, we are alarmed, and other regional partners are alarmed, and quote, well, you can always count on U.S. officials for scintillating quotes such as that one. Maybe they can fire off a stern memo to the Kremlin, advising them of just how along everyone is. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, 27th September. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. The PDB team, well, frankly, spends most happy hours drinking martinis while reading through your emails and your postcards and your faxes. And remember what your mother told you. Don't forget to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief

by visiting PDB Premium.com. It's very simple. Finally, due to travel commitments, we were unable to produce this weekend's PDB situation report. Now, we will be back with a new episode of our acclaimed weekend show next Friday. And yes, lots of people acclaim it, so it's basically highly acclaimed, maybe even critically acclaimed. Honestly, can an Emmy be far behind? Anyway, tune in next weekend on the first TV as well as our YouTube channel at Daily Brief and, of course, all podcast platforms for a new episode of the Situation Report. In the meantime, over this weekend, we'll be launching a new episode of our PDB personnel files with an in-depth look at China's President Xi Jinping, one of the world's most enigmatic leaders,

and coincidentally, anigmatic is today's PDB word of the day. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.