The President's Daily Brief - September 29th, 2022. The Underground Battle for the Pacific Islands.

Episode Date: September 29, 2022

It’s September 29th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ We’ve got a Special Edition of the PDB today. Some important news in the Battle for the Pacific — which is our long-running series on whether China or the United States will win the battle for influence amongst the many island nations of the North and South Pacific. I’m doing this Special because the leaders of 14 of those island nations are in DC this morning, wrapping up a two day summit with Joe Biden and other Administration officials.  So today we are going to take a trip to the Pacific and we’re going to explore where America is winning where we’re losing and what we can do to strengthen our position in case war ever comes. And, as always, I’ll respond to a listener question. Today it’s about how close we might be to a nuclear war with Russia. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's September 29th. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. We've got a special edition of the PDB today, some important news in the Battle for the Pacific, which is our long-running series on whether China or the United States will win in the battle for influence amongst the many island nations of the North and South Pacific. Now, I'm doing this special because the leaders of 14 of the United States, island nations are in Washington, D.C. this morning, wrapping up a two-day summit with Joe Biden and other administration officials. So today we are going to take a trip to the Pacific, and we are going to explore where America is winning, where we're losing, and what we can do to strengthen our

position in case war ever comes. As always, I'll respond to a listener question today. It's about how close we might be to a nuclear war with Russia. But first, let's get started with today's main brief, the battle for the Pacific. It's really important that we win this battle for you, for me, for all of us. Because if it ever came to war with China, we would need every last ally in that critical region, just as we did when we battle Japan in World War II. And that's precisely why the Biden administration is spending two full days, talking to leaders of these 14 countries from both the North and the South Pacific, trying to rebuild. relationships with these countries that, by all fair estimates, well, we've sort of just forgotten

about them over the years. And along with it, we've lost much of our influence. Now, that's not universally true. There are some places where we're still doing pretty good. But overall, we've got a work cut out for us. So that's why for this brief, you should definitely pull out those maps on your phones, computers, or in your mind, and maybe fire up some internet searches for all the countries and the beautiful scenery that we're about to explore, from tropical beaches to rainforests, and even some deep sea diving for old wrecked World War II planes and ships. But as we do, we have to keep in mind that this morning's island hopping is really serious. Because if we can repair many of these damaged relationships, it could save lives, maybe yours or your children's.

So let's frame this entire conversation with three big questions. First, which of these island nations are with us. And second, who's against us? And third, who's on the fence? With those answers in hand, we can talk about how to strengthen our position in the Pacific and make sure that we can win this war with China if it ever comes to it. So let's grab those maps and let's get to work. So our first stop this morning is in the North Pacific countries of Pulao, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. And we're stopping here first because while each country is distinct, hundreds of islands between them,

fascinating cultures and food and people, there's one thing that unites them. They have all signed something called the Compacts of Free Association or Coffas with the United States. These compacts are a pretty big deal for America and to understand why we actually need to brush up on some history. So before and during World War II, the Japanese occupied these particular island chains but lost control after the war ended. And then the United Nations took over under a type of trust with the idea that they'd eventually become independent.

And that started happening in the late 1970s and the 1980s. And when these island countries did gain their independence, America got them to sign these compacts or cofas. And here was the agreement. The United States would give them cash each year, around a third of their national budgets. Plus, their citizens could travel and work freely in the United States, even join our military. In return, we got basing rights for our armed services, plus very heavy influence over their foreign policies. And those compacts have worked pretty well for at least the last 40 years, both for them and for us. But things could change, and that's because these COFAs are actually a lot.

up for renegotiation all over the next couple of years. So far, the countries of Pulao and the federated states of Micronesia are both looking pretty good for us. Both of those nations are set to sign their Kofas for at least another 20 years or so. But the Marshall Islands, on the other hand, now they're not so sure. The main sticking point with them has to do with World War II. As my history buffs probably remember, we tested nuclear weapons in the Marshall Islands from 1946 to 1958. And there have been very serious costs from doing that, to the people and to the environment. And the Marshall Island leaders are angling for more compensation. I suspect America will be able to work through those differences, and most observers agree with me. So for now, let's count them as

being on our side. And that takes us to who's not on our side. So to get there, we leave the Marshall Islands and Micronesia, and we fly just a little bit further south across the equator, more or less, and move from the North Pacific to the South Pacific. Now, if you are a longtime PDB listener, you probably know the first suspect on our naughty list of countries who are falling away from our influence and towards China. And that country is the Solomon Islands. In the past couple of years, the president of that country, his last name is Sogavare. Well, he has decided to switch his allegiance from the United States to China.

Well, officially, he proclaims his neutrality, but to refresh our memories, he signed a secret deal with Beijing earlier this year, giving China access to his ports, possibly an airstrip and favorable trade deals, all in exchange for training his police and lots of cash. So Guevare gets a personal slush fund from Beijing of $2 million a year that the president can use for whatever he wants. And he has. In fact, we know last November and December, he bought off parliament members so he could stay in power. That's, of course, according to Australian press and the Wall Street Journal.

Plus, Sogavari has agreed to let China install cheap telephone and internet systems, which I can tell you that Beijing will absolutely tap for their benefit. All right, meanwhile, there's another naughty neighbor of the Solomons that we should be talking about, and that is the country of Kiribos. Now, that country used to be known as the Gilbert Islands before independence. And as my U.S. Marines will know, that island chain might be beautiful now, but during World War II, it was the scene of some of the most horrific and bloody fighting. But in modern times, Kiribati has become much more friendly, but unfortunately, with China.

In 2019, the president of that country switched his allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing. And from that point on, China has been deeply involved in that president's political future to include his re-election campaign and even cutting checks for various aid projects. That's all according to the Eurasian times. So those two nations, the Solomons and Kiribos, they are the two problem islands that, to be honest with you, we probably have lost to China. Getting them back will be very challenging. And so that leaves about 10 or so other nations on the fence in terms of.

of their ultimate allegiance. Let me give you some examples. One of the most important, and frankly, one of the most troubling is Papua New Guinea. It's about 60 miles from Australia at its closest point. They've got deep and growing cooperation with China, unfortunately, and that includes major trade deals involving Papua New Guinea in gas, minerals, and timber, about $4 billion in trade in all. The Chinese are also squeezing this country with debt.

Around half a billion dollars is what they owe to the Chinese government for assorted projects over the years. And actually, let's stop for a moment, because that debt is really important. The Chinese government is using something here called the debt trap diplomacy. So how it works is that Beijing loans very cheap money to very poor countries, knowing that these impoverished nations will take on too much debt that they can never properly service. And then when they default, China starts negotiating away the debt for key assets like ports, landing strips, or mineral and fishing rights. And that's exactly what we are seeing all around the world, from Africa to Latin America,

and now these mostly poor Pacific Island nations too. So consider the country of Samoa. That country is located right next to American Samoa, which is a U.S. territory and different from its close neighbor, Samoa. regardless, Samoa owes about 40% of its national debt to China. That's according to Reuters news service. And there are signs that Samoa is buckling under Beijing's economic pressure. So here's what I mean.

According to press reports, Samoa signed a trade deal back in May under terms that remain either secret or purposely vague. So listen to the announced wording of that deal between China and Samoa. China will provide infrastructure development support to various Samoan sectors, and a new framework for future projects will be determined and mutually agreed upon. Okay, well, if you can translate what that means, let me know. But seriously, these deals tend to be very vague on purpose. Generally because countries like Samoa want to avoid angering their historical friends and allies from America to Australia and other South Pacific island nations too.

And speaking of, there's another island nation that's unfortunately falling for the debt trap diplomacy. It's called Vanuatu. Now, you might know of this country if you've ever seen the musical South Pacific. There was a World War II military base there on that island called Espiritu Santo Naval Base, and it was the setting for the book, which later became the musical South Pacific. But how times have changed. Vanuatu now owes about $130 million to China, which has kept that country very close to itself. Plus, China is giving Vanuatu lots of goodies, too, to include building the Prime Minister a new house,

along with other key government buildings. That is based on reporting from the Sydney Morning Herald. And that actually takes us to our last four island nations for a quick review. Fiji and Tonga, both incredibly beautiful countries, it's absolutely true, but they are very troublesome for the United States. Fiji has one of the strongest military relationships with China, and Beijing actually provides the Fijian military with vehicles and uniforms and personnel training. That's according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Tonga, on the other hand, has been flirting with Beijing for a while now, actually, to include 100 million,

dollars in debt, plus training of Tongan athletes for professional games to include the Olympics, and getting $11 million worth of free office building construction a couple years ago. So if America is losing those two countries, Fiji and Tonga, we do have a couple of other ones that we're keeping pretty darn close, the countries of Tuvalu and Nauru, both of whom stand very strongly with us and with Taiwan. They have consistently rejected the overtures made by China, at least so far. So all in all, if we had a scorecard, I'd say China's got two countries, America has got five, and the other eight or so are on the fence, with many leaning towards China.

So all this raises the question then of what can America do to pull these countries closer into our sphere of influence, or at least ensure that they stay neutral? Let's take a quick break, and when we come back, we'll hash that out. with a particular focus on fish, of all things. So hang tight. We'll be right back. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars.

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Welcome back to the PDB. It's time to talk about solutions to bring those Pacific Island nations back to our sphere of influence. But before we do, let's remember the stakes here. If it were to come to war with China, a war that nobody wants to see, but frankly, I suspect we probably will see in our lifetimes,

then we are going to desperately need every ally that we can get. And that includes most especially in the north and South Pacific, just like in World War II when we fought the Japanese. So how do we re-engage with these island nations that candidly we have largely ignored for the past 50 years or so? Well, the Biden administration, to their credit, has correctly decided to take some immediate steps to fix those relationships, like sending diplomats to the region to re-engage that happened this summer and last spring. We're also opening up two new embassies in Kirabos and Tonga, and that's helpful. There are also some new Peace Corps volunteers who will start showing up next summer or so, and that's nice.

But if you really want to make some headway, we've got to bring our wallet and plan to protect some fish. So let me explain by talking about that wallet first. What China offers these nations is cheap financing and cheap construction. And we see that all over the North and South Pacific. And the citizens there, they see it too. So our military and Department of State should prioritize favorable loans or direct aid. In other words, if you can't beat them, join them. China does it, and frankly, so should we.

By the way, this doesn't have to be wildly expensive. There's a great example of China providing a couple of very simple buses, school buses, to a very poor island in the Solomons, and it brought them tremendous goodwill. Still, there's a second underappreciated concern that every single one of these island nations have. And it's that China is destroying the fishing industries of these countries. Chinese boats have become a parasite that illegally fish at such a volume that local fishermen are struggling to compete. And by that, I mean, they're struggling to find fish at all. So let me share something with you that you might not know.

China's booming middle class has a constant craving for fish. And it is so insatiable that they've dramatically depleted their own stocks of fish in China. And that means that Beijing and all of its companies have to go abroad. and I mean everywhere. China's fishing fleet has grown from a dozen ships or so in the 1980s to 17,000 today. That's according to the London-based researcher Overseas Development Institute. So to give you some context, Taiwan and South Korea combined have 2,500 ships. China has 17,000.

And they travel all around the world for fish to Western Africa, Latin America, and all throughout the North and South Pacific, specifically for tuna. So I want to give you a challenge. Use your internet browser and search for China, illegal fishing, and just any of the countries that I've mentioned, especially the Solomons, Vanuatu, Tonga, Fiji. In every case, there is a Chinese fishing vessel that's stealing or destroying fish stocks.

And the people of these countries, especially the local fishermen, are mad as hell about it. So there's your leverage, folks. We should be driving a train through that opening, reminding leaders and citizens alike that they can work with us to remove the parasites from Beijing. Now, for what it's worth, the Department of Defense and our Coast Guard understand this opportunity about fish. And they're actually making the pitch to them that we can provide people and boats to better protect their waters. And that's good.

It means that somebody back in D.C. actually gets it. And for once, that's a refreshing thing. that I am very happy to report. Folks, that ends our special brief today on the Battle for the Pacific. I sure hope you enjoyed it, and I really hope that you spend some time looking at these island nations, because as I see it, we'll maybe become pretty familiar with where we fought in World War II

to prepare for the likelihood of World War III. Before I let you go this morning, I've got a quick question on a very serious subject from a listener about how close we are to a nuclear war with Russia. We'll be right back. Olivia Rodriguez, the unravel tour across North America with special guests. Get tickets Thursday, May 7th at Olivia Rodrigo.com. Welcome back to the PDB, ladies and gentlemen.

I've got one more thing before I let you go. Nick, in Coming Georgia, wrote in asking this question. If a significant number of fighting age Russian men managed to leave their country and avoid a draft, do you think that that will make Mr. Putin more likely to use nuclear weapons? To me, it seems like if you can't throw troops at this war, he might have to resort to throwing more arms at it. Well, Nick, this is an awesome question,

and your logic is very sound. There is a very real concern that if Putin loses the people and the equipment that he needs to win, he'll start to become desperate. Still, I think it's important to remember this. The use of nuclear weapons is less of a military decision, and it's actually more of a political decision. If someone pulls that nuclear trigger,

they know what it means for their country, for their legacy, for the world. If you pull that trigger at the wrong moment or for the wrong cause, the entire world unites against you for generations. and Putin knows that. So will he be a rational man when he thinks about pulling the trigger? Or will he be desperate and not care?

Well, the honest answer, Nick, is we don't know. We are in uncharted territory. And that's such an overused phrase, but my goodness, it is accurate here. Up until Monday, Putin was gambling that he could freeze Europe this winter back to the negotiating table

because they need his natural gas. But now, he can't turn back on those natural gas Nord Stream pipelines. Somebody blew them up. And that means Putin has less to offer Europe to sue for peace. And that means a longer war and higher the odds that things escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. And Nick, I'll tell you, it's why this war must end with diplomacy, no matter how hard we have to pinch our noses as we all sign that deal. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here,

talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day. Ryan Reynolds here from MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this,

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