The President's Daily Brief - September 6th, 2023: Is North Korea's Kim Jong Un Heading to Russia?

Episode Date: September 6, 2023

In this episode of "The President's Daily Brief," Mike Baker looks at critical developments both at home and abroad:   Tensions are escalating within the United Auto Workers, one of America's most significant labor unions, as they stand on the brink of a major strike. We delve into the implications this could have on the domestic economy and the auto industry.   We revisit the international stage with an update on North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, who is reportedly gearing up for a trip to Russia. What might this mean for global geopolitics, and what is the significance in light of Ukraine's ongoing counter-offensive?   In the Back of the Brief, we share a fresh economic forecast that spells trouble for China but may be a silver lining for the United States.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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of the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Today, we're going to start with a domestic U.S. issue, where members of the United Auto Workers, one of the largest and most influential unions in the country with almost 150,000 members, are less than two weeks away from potentially walking off the job. By all account, the Union and the Big Three automakers are miles apart. But not to worry, apparently, there is one person who doesn't think a strike is in the cards. Then a little later in the brief, a follow-up to a story we discussed yesterday. North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-un is reportedly heading for Russia in the near future

with the hopes of inking a major weapons deal. Plus, we'll look at the biggest reason Russia needs those weapons, the latest from Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive. And finally, in the back of the brief, a new economic forecast points to trouble for China, which could mean good news for the United States. But first, today's PDB spotlight. The UAW, or United Automobile Workers for those unfamiliar, is gearing up for some big decisions. Their contract is set to wrap up on September 14th, and there's growing concern about a possible strike.

The burning question here is, will they be? target just one of the big Detroit automakers or go all in and challenge all three. For those keeping score at home, the big three consist of GM, Stalantis, and Ford. Now, why should we care? Well, if the potential for increased inflation, higher car costs and a slowing economy doesn't worry you, then I guess you don't need to care. For the rest of us, though, any significant strike by the UAW is a big deal. And the UAW isn't just asking for small potatoes in the negotiations. They're asking for really big potatoes. I mean like Idaho potatoes, only even bigger. Their new president, Sean Fane, appears to be in the Bernie Sanders' capitalism is bad mold,

although one could argue that Bernie has done pretty well for himself under the capitalist yoke, but that's a segment for another day. The UAW's Fane has been, stoking the fires with some big demands. We're talking about a 46% pay hike, getting paid for 40 hours, but only working 32, and wanting those good old-fashioned pensions back. Now, that's quite the wish list. The union is also looking for concessions around the move to electric vehicles. The UAW understands that the Biden administration is all-in on EVs, and the union also understands that fewer workers are needed to build EVs. That's a problem.

Now, while industry experts and union workers appear to be expecting a strike, there's one lone optimistic voice out there. President Joe Biden weighed in the other day, and he's not buying into the strike hype, apparently. In fact, he sounded pretty confident when chatting with reporters in Philadelphia on Labor Day. He said, and I quote,

No, I'm not worried about a strike until it happens. I don't think it's going to happen. So, according to our president, it's a lot of sound and fury, but maybe signifying nothing. One person apparently caught off guard by Biden's optimism was the UAW president. He responded to the president's comments by saying, and here I'm paraphrasing, Huh? What? Does he know something we don't know? Some big names in the auto industry are painting a pessimistic picture. Top dogs, as reported by Axios, think of strikes on the horizon.

Barclay's analyst Dan Levy even used the words highly likely, and Steve Ratner, who some of you might remember as President Obama's car czar, points fingers at the UAW leader for stirring the pot with inflammatory rhetoric. Now, Ratner's not wrong. Fain at times has sounded like a firebrand leftist. Just the other day, he commented, and I quote, I don't believe that billionaires have the right to exist. Yes, that's a quote. It would also seem to be less than effective to conduct negotiations. in the media rather than off the public's radar screen. The UAW's current tactics seem more focused on intimidation and an inevitable shutdown.

So will they or won't they strike? The jury's still out on that one, but it's a tug of war between those who see a storm brewing and others, assuming there are others, like President Biden, who think it's all just bluster. Biden does like to tout himself as the most pro-union president ever, so much, maybe the White House intends to step in and pressure both sides for an agreement. After all, while a strike means lost wages for union members and significant losses for the Big Three, depending on the duration, for the White House entering an election year, the strike could mean serious political damage. And it, no doubt, hasn't escaped the White House's attention

that the UAW has not yet endorsed Biden for 2024. All right, when we come back, Back, I've got two more developing stories. Little rocket man, Kim Jong-un, is preparing for a visit to Moscow. And we have an update on Ukraine's counteroffensive. I'm Mike Baker, and you're listening to the president's daily brief. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right, so I can tune out travel advice that's just plain wrong. Bro, Skycoin, way better than points.

Never fly during a Scorpio full moon. Just tell the manager you'll sue. Instant room upgrade. Stop taking bad travel advice. Start comparing hundreds of sites with kayak and get your trip right. Kayak, got that right. Welcome back to the president's daily brief. I wanted to follow up on a story we told you about yesterday

when we reported that Russia has, according to South Korean intel sources, floated the idea to North Korea of joint naval exercises alongside China. Well, as it turns out, the relationship between Russia and North Korea, Korea is about to become a lot closer. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will reportedly be boarding his armored train for a visit to Russia this month. And by the way, if I was a despotic leader, I would definitely have an armored train. So why, you ask, is Kim hopping on board the Hermit Kingdom Express? Well, word on the street is that Kim might be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential arms deal to support Moscow's efforts in its ongoing

invasion of Ukraine. U.S. officials have highlighted that these arms sales discussions began when Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoriu took a trip to North Korea back in July. That was a big deal because it was the first time a Russian defense minister visited Pyongyang since the Soviet Union set its goodbyes in 1991. And while the Kremlin's playing it cool and not confirming anything, the White House has shared that the two nations are building quite the bond. A recent report even suggest that they might meet in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok. What's the U.S. stance here? Well, the White House urges North Korea to hit the brakes on these arms talks and stick to its promise of not selling weapons to Russia. But with both leaders exchanging

friendly letters, oh, friendly letters, and talk of joint military drills, my dear Vladimir Putin, it has been far too long since we last conversed. Oh, that's probably not how he talks, actually. The growing Russian-North Korea partnership does seem undeniable. The White House is reacting to the blossoming romance between Putin and Kim. Yesterday, the U.S. National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, warned that North Korea would, quote, pay a price if it sells weapons to Russia. He also characterized the arms negotiations between the two countries as actively advancing. Sullivan added that providing weapons to Russia will not reflect well on North Korea. Let me just repeat that quote.

Sullivan added that providing weapons to Russia will, quote, not reflect well on North Korea, which I'm sure concerns Kim. Mind you, the possibility that North Korea hasn't already been selling weapons and or munitions to Russia is roughly the same as me quarterbacking the New York Giants to a Super Bowl victory. Given the level of sanctions already in place against North Korea, there is little the U.S. can layer on in order to ensure. influence Kim's actions. Perhaps a harshly worded memo, that might do the trick. And with Russia, their increased courtship of North Korea does indicate that sanctions imposed on Moscow since the invasion in February 2022 are having an impact. Now, it wouldn't be appropriate to discuss Russia's hunger for more weapons without mentioning why it's so hungry. Ukraine, of course, is in the midst of a

counteroffensive, and it's beginning to look like they're making some progress. According to Ukrainian officials, their forces have made a significant breakthrough, breaching Russian defensive lines in southern Ukraine. General Alexander Tarnovsky, who's leading their counteroffensive, said they're making faster progress now. The news of a breakthrough actually couldn't come at a better time for Ukraine's President Zelensky, who's been fighting off criticism from his Western allies about the pace of Ukraine's gains and the counteroffensive strategy in battlefield tactics.

Now, Russia's even pulling reserves not just from Ukraine, but also from back home. But General Tarnovsky appears confident, no surprise, saying that sooner or later, Russia will run out of troop reserves, and that'll be Ukraine's cue to move even faster. Since the start of the counteroffensive, there had been very little forward progress. It was, frankly, reminiscent of World War I, harsh fighting for very little ground gain. But there does appear to be a breakthrough along the important southern front near Zaporizia. Ukrainian forces are now operating between the first and second lines of Russian defense. Major objectives in the remaining couple of months before winter sets in will include attacking

and disrupting supply lines used by the Russian military and pushing south towards the Black Sea coast. Demonstrating success in this counteroffensive is critically important to holding the resolve of Ukraine's allies in its population, and to further damaging the morale and resolve of the Russian troops. All right, a new economic forecast is throwing cold water on China's ambition to be the most dominant economy on the planet. I'll have more on that in the back of the brief. I'm Mike Baker, and this is the president's daily brief. This is a Bose moment. Your 10 boring blocks from home until the beat drops in Bose clarity. And the baseline transatlance. forms boring into maybe the best part of your day. Your life deserves music. Your music deserves

Bose. Find your perfect product at Bose.com. Welcome back to the PDB. In today's back of the brief, for years now, it seemed inevitable that China would overtake the United States as the world's largest economy. Analysts practically took it for granted. It was a very popular talking point. The U.S. economy was in decline, and China's rise to the top of the food chain was inevitable. But not so fast. A new Bloomberg report suggests China might not clinch that title anytime soon. In fact, China's economy might never claim the top spot. So here's the gist of it.

China's economic growth is slowing down more than experts had initially thought it would. They're dealing with a triple whammy, a real estate slump, a slowing global economy impacting China's exports, and dwindling confidence in its own management of the economy. Some number crunchers even say China's growth could drop to just 1% or less by 2050. That's quite a drop from their 4.3% prediction not too long ago. Last year, China saw a meager 3% growth, making it one of its slowest years. Now, this isn't just about numbers. This shift has big implications for global politics and business.

The globe is increasingly interconnected. A slowdown in the world's second largest economy will be felt everywhere. And internally, China's Xi Jinping has got to be worried about the impact of a worsening economy and a possible collapse of their real estate sector on the population. Look, unrest and instability among the population is the communist regime's kryptonite. So look for Xi to take significant and aggressive actions in an attempt to shore up the economy. For the West, the problem in understanding and predicting China's economic situation is that there is a decided lack of transparency from the Chinese government. There's little confidence

that the government is reporting numbers accurately, and in fact, they have stopped reporting certain economic results in data in an effort to limit bad news. Now, while China grapples with internal issues, from their economy to a recent population decline, to rising tensions with Western governments, the economy in the U.S. is showing some muscle. With a strong job market, it seems the U.S. is likely to avoid the harsh recession that some had predicted. However, inflation does continue to be persistent, and polls continually indicate that a majority of Americans are not feeling optimistic about their economy, despite White House efforts to beat the Bidonomics drum. A couple factors here that bear watching in the U.S.

Household debt is at an all-time high, reaching over $17 trillion by the end of the the second quarter of this year. And credit card defaults at the same time are on the rise. Pay attention to both of those statistics. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, 6th September. If you have any questions or comments, reach out to us at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker. Until tomorrow, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.