The President's Daily Brief - The PDB Situation Report | July 25th, 2026: The Next Phase Of The Iran War Has Begun & Russia Feels The Pain

Episode Date: July 25, 2026

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: The war with Iran is expanding as the Houthis move into the fight, threatening Red Sea shipping and raising the risk of a much wider regional conflict. We're joined by Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies to discuss what happens next. We take you inside Russia, where fuel shortages and relentless Ukrainian drone strikes are making the war increasingly difficult for ordinary Russians to ignore. Konstantin Samoilov of the YouTube channel Inside Russia joins us with firsthand insight into how the conflict is reshaping daily life inside the country. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Poncho Outdoors: Gear up for summer with Poncho and grab $10 off plus free shipping at https://ponchooutdoors.com/PDB Acre Gold: Turn your pocket change into physical 24-karat gold and enter to win a limited-edition Hot Wheels gold bar at https://GetAcreGold.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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There's no shortcut for saving time, but saving money is simple. Just combine your car and home insurance with Bel Air Direct and save. Get a quote at bellair direct.com. Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, thank you for asking. I am still on the road. All right, let's get briefed.

First up, the war with Iran is expanding as Lhoutis, remember them, move into the fight, threatening Red Sea shipping, and raising the risk of a much-wise. regional conflict. We'll be joined by Jonathan Shanzer of the Foundation for Defensive Democracies to discuss what happens next. Later in the show, we'll take you inside Russia, where fuel shortages and Ukrainian drone strikes are making the war harder for ordinary Russians to ignore. We'll be joined by Konstantin Samoyov of the YouTube channel Inside Russia for some insight into that. But first, today's situation report spotline. We're now two weeks into the renewed conflict

with Iran, and the battlefield is no longer confined to the Persian Gulf. This week, the Iran-backed Houtis escalated the war by launching attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea after declaring a new naval blockade, raising fears that the Iranian regime's network of proxy forces is opening a second major front in this conflict. At the same time, the U.S. continues its air campaign against Iranian military targets while positioning additional forces in the region, fueling speculation, of course, that Washington may soon expand operations beyond Iran itself. To help us break this down, we're joined by Jonathan Schanzer.

He's the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Jonathan, thank you very much for joining us again here on the Situation Report. My pleasure. Well, let's start from 30,000 feet. If you could, give me your current assessment of where we are with this conflict. All right, well, look, I mean, I think we all know what happened in the beginning. U.S. and Israel own the Iranians. And the Iranians struck back.

They hold the street of Hormuz hostage. They withhold 20% of the world's energy from hitting the markets. So Trump declares that ceasefire. The ceasefire holds for a time. Nobody really thought it was going to hold for much longer than it did. But what we're looking at right now is the situation where the Iranians appear to reach the conclusion

that peace or calm is not. in their interest. I think they're afraid of internal dissent. I think they're afraid of internal battles that could bring down the regime. So they've elected for what I would call low-intensity conflict. A couple of strikes here and there around the region that invite a response from the United States. I think the U.S. can do this for quite some time. And I think the regime is probably at a disadvantage the longer this dynamic continues. But I would also argue, that there is a lot of room for miscalculation, that trying to keep things at a low-intensity conflict.

That is where mistakes happen. One strike that was miscalculated could lead to something really nasty. I mean, we saw the killing of three service members the other day in Jordan. That's the kind of thing that leads to significant escalation on the part of the United States. And so I don't know if the Iranians can keep things as calibers. it as perhaps they hope to, but I don't think the U.S. isn't a bad spot. I'm not saying that I see some sort of strategic genius here. I just think this might be a grinded out kind of war that in a few months, the regime just may not be able to sustain the kind of beating that it's taking,

and we could kind of watch this thing end with a whimper instead of a bang. Well, I would, I would agree with that if we maintain and, frankly, increase. economic pressure on Iran, right? If we are able to choke off their revenue streams to the degree where, because that's where I think you may not even get a whimper as an ending, you may actually finally get, even though it's horrible the last time they went out in the streets and how many thousands of them died, but that's when you may get the people out in the streets. If that combined with the low intensity beating that they're taking, those things combined, could do it. But now you've got the potential for the Saudis to get involved because of

the Iranians working with Qutis to attack Saudi shipping through the Red Sea. Yeah. And obviously, that complicates matters because now you don't just have the street of Farmoos one choke point. You've got potentially two. And so the pressure is building on the United States from an economic perspective. By the way, not just the U.S. I mean, the entire world needs to wake up here. The idea that, you know, our Five Eyes partners and NATO partners and EU partners have not stepped up. The fact that the, you know, the Gulfies have not stepped up is kind of remarkable because this is an assault on the rules-based international order, if we're going to call it that. And all these countries that are relying on this rules-based order seem to be just

fine allowing the rules to not apply. That makes very little sense to me. But I do think that you're right, that significant economic pressure can exacerbate the problems that the regime is already feeling. And look, we've already heard that the strikes carried out on Iran over the last several months have set them back by the equivalent of a year and a half of their GDP, right? This is significant. Their defense industrial base is really beat up. Their banking sector is a mess. Their currency is in the toilet. All of these things, I think, are absolutely giving the United States more leverage. But the Iranians, I mean, we have to remember, you know, even though we've got the advantage here, they have a say. The enemy always gets a boat. The minute we stepped into that ring,

right, we had to know they were going to fight back, and they're doing it by trying to punish the entire world with these strategic choke points. And they could have their way with us for a bit. but that will only just necessitate, I think, greater involvement on the part of the U.S. military, and that's, of course, something that Donald Trump is ambivalent about. We'll have to see which way that goes. Yeah, ambivalent is a good word, and part of that is the domestic U.S. political pressure. You know, as we talk, you know, oil prices are kind of hovering around the $100 mark, top to 103, I think it was, and kind of settle back down in the 90s.

gas prices obviously are going to respond. Look, with the Babel Mandeb Strait that the Qutis are now engaged in blockading the Saudi vessels, you're talking about that plus the Strait of Hormuz, you know, upwards of 30% of global energy supplies now being disrupted. So that is going to have, to your point, that is going to have significant impact, I think, on the decision-making process. So the question is, I think there's a problem, right? There's a problem in that in the agency we used to say you got to define your mission.

You got to make it very clear. What is your mission? That's the first thing you have to do, right? Then, of course, you have to explain what your mission is to people that are going to be operators and dealing with it. We defined our mission, it seems a little bit late in the game, but we said, okay, they're not going to get a nuclear weapon. That's our mission. But that is imperfect in terms of defining your mission because all you're doing, if that's your goal, they're not going to get this, but we're going to deal with this regime as it exists, then all you're doing is putting a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound for some other administration to deal with. I totally agree.

And, yeah, and look, I'll just say that that initial mission of blocking the nukes, that was important. And it's not done, by the way, because we now have learned all about pickax mountain. this area in the Isfahan region that has this, you know, facility deep below ground where apparently Iranian centrifuges have been moved. So the nuclear program is not done. We still have that initial goal. But I do think that we need to redefine here because if this regime is intent on holding the entire world hostage, cutting off, as you know, something like 30% of the world's energy

and blocking shipments that would go further north up into U.S. Europe, I mean, they are shutting down an enormous amount of trade and they are holding the world hostage. There does need to be a redefinition of terms here. What is it that we want to go after? I think we should be talking about regime change. I know that it's a dirty term in Washington. I know that, you know, dating back to Iraq in Afghanistan, we're not supposed to talk about

it in that way. But let's just be real here. America's not bad at regime change. Look at what we did in Venezuela. Look at what we did in Japan. Look what we did in Germany. Look what we did with the Soviet Union. I mean, we have a decent track record here.

Recent history, notwithstanding, there is an argument to be made that this regime should not be allowed to survive, given the way that it is engaging with the world right now. The big challenge that I see is, number one, Donald Trump winning over both sides of the MAGA movement. We'll call it the, you know, J.D. Vance wing and the Marco Rubio wing, getting them to a agree on anything right now seems to be kind of a long throw from third. The other thing that I think he needs to do is he needs to reset things with the Europeans, which I don't think he's going to want to do. But if we really want help in opening up the straight of four moves, in opening up Babel Mandab, we're going to need help. We should not have to do this on our own.

As I was saying, if this is the international rules-based world order, well, then where's the international community here, we need to get them involved. That would probably require the president to have kind of an outstretched hand to the Europeans. I'm not saying they're going to love him after this, but I do think that maybe this would be a good place to start anew if we want to get serious about the Iranian threat. Yeah, I don't know that that's going to happen. I think, you know, it would be hard for President Trump to change his stripes. I think certainly at, you know, at the this stage, but I agree with you. Look, it's interesting because the UK, obviously, it's been in the recent news just over the past 24 hours or so, obviously allowed our USB-1 bomber to fly out of

UK and one of our bases there, one of our joint bases. And then, of course, the Iranian regime immediately turns around and threatens the UK and says that they are not to do this anymore. They're not allowed to use their bases. And, you know, and so I think, first of all, I don't know that I take their threats seriously, but I, you know, you'd be hard pressed to say that the Iranian regime poses a threat to the UK at this stage. But I think that, and Andy Burnham, the new prime minister, I haven't done the math, but I think he's the 47th prime minister in 28 days or something for the UK. So I don't see him backing off of this.

but he did come out and the U.K. Foreign Minister came out and said, look, you know, we absolutely will defend ourselves. Well, okay, that's nice. You're going to defend yourself should the U.K. or should Iran attack as unlikely as it sounds. But how about maybe getting in the fight on the offensive side? That's what we need here. I mean, we need not to say that the Brits or the French or the Germans and the Australians are such powerful militaries.

I mean, the Brits have it if they want to use it. But what we need actually is a coalition. If the Iranians began to realize that they couldn't divide us, but that rather their actions were uniting us and they found themselves under more pressure at the United Nations, that they found themselves under more sustained international sanctions, this is the sort of thing that I think might push them in the other direction. Right now, I think they see a really fractured international community, the Western Alliance. structure, whether it's NATO or if it's the EU or if it's the Five Eyes, we're not in great shape here right now, just in terms of singing off the same sheet of music. I think the Iranians are exploiting this right now. And they're also exploiting the fact that our Arab allies are scared of their own shadows, that they don't want to fight. If we could somehow unify everybody,

put them all into the same alliance standing up against the Iranians, that's how I think the tide begins to turn. But we're far from that right now. That means. that it's still on the shoulders of the President of the United States, the commander in chief, to figure out what that strategy is. And that leads, I think, to the last kind of question here is, can, or what we talked about before with the Rubio and Vanswings, can Trump get up an issue of statement to the American people that would kind of scratch the itch for both sides? And I think that might be the tricky part for him at this moment. So forget trying to get the international community on board. How about just getting all the Republicans

back on side here so that we can have some political will to take out the surrounding a regime once and for all. Yeah. Yeah, I think you're right. I think that's the heavy left. I mean, it's all difficult. But, you know, when it comes to trying to thread the needle on U.S. politics anymore in our current state of play, I think it's extremely difficult.

Jonathan, if you could stay right where you are, don't go anywhere. That would be awkward if we come back and you're not there. We have to take a quick break and we'll be right back with more from Jonathan Johnson. here on the PDB Situation Report. So, you know what we say? Stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here with a fashion tip for dudes, because, as you know, I'm known for my fashion tips.

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Greygoose. Make time wait. Sip responsibly. The Hulu original series Furious is coming to Disney Plus. Starring Emmy Rossum, Furious follows FBI agent Alice Black on the hunt for a mysterious and count. circulating serial killer.

Both walk their own paths toward justice, and as their lives start to intertwine, the line between right and wrong begins to blur. Don't miss the three-episode premiere of the Hulu original series Furious on July 27th, only on Hulu on Disney Plus. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director, the Foundation for Defense of Democracy. Jonathan, I got to tell you, I keep wanting to pronounce your little.

last name, Shanzer, because it sounds more posh. So I think you might want to think about this. It is how my ancestors pronounced my name. I kind of Americanized it, and so now it's just Shanzer. It's a little more boring. I see that, and I think, oh, Lord Shanzer. So about right? I know. See, it's got a good ring to it. I like it. Well, let's pick up where we left off. I think if we could look at the Iranian decision. Obviously, I don't want to say the Houthis are completely controlled, but they're pretty much controlled by Iranian wishes and desires from the IRGC. The RGC has had personnel there in Yemen for quite a long time.

Secretary of St. Marker Rubio came out just the past couple of days and made a comment about, well, you know, with gun intelligence, it says that the RGC is flying people, personnel into Yemen. I'm thinking, well, maybe to replace the folks that have already been there, but it's not exactly new news. But their decision to drag the Saudis into this without specifically linking it to Iran, right? The Houthis are trying to say, well, we're blockading the Saudis now, you know, because of their 12 years of oppression against the Khutis. And obviously, there's a long history of the conflict there in Yemen.

But, you know, what is it? is your assessment, and I know we talked about this and the fact that, you know, the EU, the Gulf partners not, you know, necessarily providing an awful lot of support, what's your assessment of what that development could mean for not just the Saudis, but others in that region? So a couple things to point out here. The first is in the spring of 23, the Chinese government brokered an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia with, I want to say, nominal involvement by the Houthis, that Iran and Saudi Arabia would respect one another sovereignty and would cease hostilities toward one another, both in terms of propaganda, but also in terms of military activity, proxy activity.

I did not like that deal. I did not like that the Saudis went with Iran and China. I didn't like the optics of it. But here's the, maybe the good news is that deal appears to have fallen apart. So whatever leverage China had over these countries and these actors, it seems to have, you know, I mean, it's unraveled. And so I think there is an opportunity right now. You probably saw the news about the president offering civilian nuclear assistance to the Saudis.

Look, the Saudis, I think, are now at a point where they realize that the relationship with the Chinese, whatever, you know, arrangement they had with the Iranians, not working. And I think the president has opened up the door here to bring the Saudis back fully into the fold. The Saudis have been hedging for this entire war since October 7th, since Hamas attacked Israel, they've been kind of sitting on the fence and they've not made a move one way or another that not been real interested in normalization with Israel, but they're also not fighting back against the Iranians or any of the threat network. I think this is potentially a place where you can kind of refresh. You can, you know, you can, you can, you can start over here. So I kind of,

I kind of like it from that perspective. But look, when you look at the fact that the Houthis who have ballistic missiles, they're the only non-state actor that I'm aware of that have ballistic missiles on the planet makes you wonder where they got them from. Right. Gosh, maybe from Iran, right? But, you know, so they can attack the Israelis. They can attack American ships in the Red Sea. they can attack neighbors all around the region. Again, I keep coming back to this. We're going to need to have some kind of new alliance structure. And this is going to be about diplomacy as much as it's going to be about military responses to these actors.

But I do think, again, the fact that that agreement fell apart means there's a window for us. And I think it's open. And I think Trump is doing what he can right now with this nuclear offer. but we're going to have to do more than that. I'd like to see, you know, open cooperation between the Saudis and the Emirates who don't like each other very much, but also some of the other Gulf states, getting the Israelis involved, getting Sencom more involved. We're going to need to pull everybody together in ways that we haven't until now.

Yeah, no, I agree. And whatever format that coalition is, I think it's, we have to do it because, again, I think the Iranian regime, you know, they've been thinking about this moment for decades, imagining some sort of existential conflict with the U.S. They've had a long time to think about this, prepare for it. And so I think that they are not looking, even though the White House is currently saying, oh, they're desperate to do a deal. They keep talking to us.

We still want to talk. But the U.S. saying, we're not ready to do that yet. It's interesting because reporting is showing the Iranian regime saying the same thing in the opposite direction, saying the U.S. is desperate to make a deal. We're not ready to do it just yet. There is something interesting here. I mean, look, I think the Iranians understand that they cannot maintain peace or calm. I really think that they understand that that is not in their interest, that the more there is calm,

I think the higher the likelihood of the people coming out on the streets, the Iranians, protesting their government that got them into this mess in the first place. The more there's calm and quiet, I think the more it invites that kind of activity. and I think they're keenly aware of it. The other thing that I'll just point out, though, is you can't ignore that the Chinese are involved here and that the Russians are involved here. And they love the idea of this war with Iran getting dragged out and spreading the American military thin, distracting the United States from Taiwan, from Ukraine.

I see this as an access initiative. All three of these countries are working together to try to undermine the American-led world order. And the more that the United States gets pinned down, the more defense interceptors we fire off against these ballistic missiles, the less ready will be in other feeders. And I do think that's part of a broader strategy we cannot ignore. Oh, no. There's nothing that delights Xi Jinping in China more. to see the U.S. bog down somewhere. He doesn't really care where, but he certainly likes us to see engaged in a couple of conflicts,

at least at the same time. And there have been some reports. I think the intel community is still investigating the credibility of the reports that Moscow's been not just providing support in terms of material and training and other resources, but they've also been providing targeting data, which says that here's how you kill Americans or target U.S. facilities. They're still looking into that. So, yeah, to your point, you know, nothing happens in a bubble, right?

We don't want to look at this and think it's a conflict with Iran. There's very key players that have been engaged, the Chinese have been, you know, kind of getting drunk on discounted Iranian oil for quite some time. So they're not keen to see that go away. Yeah, it's all. And then you look at some of the other aspects. I don't know where I'm going with this other than now the oil's back up to somewhere in the hundred. And that, of course, you know, makes Vladimir Putin smile where he's sitting in his

layer, stroking his hair, his cat. But it is, it's just all connected. I'm always fascinated by how small the world is and how nothing happens in a bubble. Totally agree. And I think, you know, we need to keep an eye on this great power competition angle. But I think Trump's playing it as much as the other guys are. I mean, trying to get the Saudis back in the U.S. alliance structure. I mean, even the offer of nukes, by the way, I mean, or nuclear, civilian nuclear assistance, not actual nuclear weapons. But even doing that, you know, we're talking right now about the great game as it relates to AI and the way in which, you know, the United States can maintain AI dominance over China. We know that the Saudis, for example, are interested

in hosting data centers on their soil. And if nuclear power can keep those data centers, coming along and that those data centers are going to support American AI companies. This is all working out for the betterment of the United States. That's what's happening on the one side. We're making our moves. The other side is making theirs. The Iranian theater, I think, is actually smaller compared to a lot of these other things that we're watching.

It doesn't make it any less important or any less deadly for our warfighters. But it is, I think, we need to understand that there is a bigger game afoot here right now and we ignore it on our peril. Yeah. And everybody plays, you know, again, sort of to your point earlier, everybody plays this game, right? When the Soviets were bogged down in Afghanistan, I can tell you, because I was around and, you know, we were fairly delighted that, you know, they were stuck in this morass. We never would have imagined that we would then shortly thereafter have been stuck in that same tar pit. But it is, you know, it is interesting. So we're all playing. I always get that when I talk about the threat from, you know, Chinese intelligence

or the thefts of intellectual property and espionage efforts. And sometimes people will kind of go, roll their eyes and go, well, we do it too. You know, I'm like, well, you better hope we do it. Because, you know, you better hope we do it better than anybody. I don't know where I'm going with that, Jonathan. I just disappeared down a rabbit hole. Well, I will say, you know, you mentioned that there's all the things that they do

that we should be doing. The one thing that we're not doing right now is engaging in information warfare. And the Iranians are doing it, the Russians are doing it, the Chinese are doing it. And we're getting pummeled over here, right? And it's happening on social media. And it's happening. I mean, it is, it's an attempt to delegitimize our efforts in the Middle East. That's a big part of what's going on here right now is they're actually, you know, pulling on these threads.

We talked about the divisions within the Republican Party. We could talk about the broader divisions within the American public. They are absolutely stoking this right now. And that's the one area where I don't feel like we're pushing back at all. And I know if you've, you know, you've been inside, you know, that, you know, we fight like gentlemen as it relates to information, right? We don't want to lie. We don't want to stretch the truth. We don't want to lead people down a different path.

But look, they're doing it to us. And it's having a real world impact on our willingness to fight in this theater in the Middle East and may yet have an impact on our willingness to fight in other theaters as well. So when you talk about how both sides are doing it, I've got to hope we are. I haven't seen it really so much in this information space. I don't know if you have. Yeah, it's a good point. Look, as always, you know, adversaries take advantage of our open society and also what you would maybe call our Western values, whatever that means.

It's a little bit like the redcoats, you know, being offended by having their officers shot on the battlefield. So, well, I really dipped into that one for a cultural pull, didn't I? It is. Well, I'd say, Jonathan, last question. I'm going to ask you for your predictions. For the Iran conflict, here's prediction number one. Do you think we're going to engage, because we're moving a lot of resources, including refueling tankers and a variety of other things out to the region? Do you think we're going to engage in a stepped-up campaign where it's not just, you know, contained military strikes every evening? And will that include the Houthis? You know, look, I think we have to step up at some point. I think the president would probably like to keep it a contained conflict.

But if the Iranians are finding ways to widen the conflict and make it more painful for us, we're going to have to respond in kind. I think for me, the big question is, what do you do about pickaxe Mountain if you can't hit it with bunker busters? Is it boots on the ground? Is it tactical nukes? I mean, what are we talking about here? if bunker busters don't do the trick, we're going to have to figure something else out.

And I do think that there's this open question. The president continues to threaten to attack Iranian infrastructure, oil, bridges, highways, things like that, hasn't done it yet. I think he's been very fearful of doing that, or at least very cautious about it. And right now, it doesn't look like the Iranians are letting up. It does look like they are tempting him to do exactly what he doesn't want to do. That's the stuff that I'm watching. but regardless, we're going to be watching it stepped up.

The last thing I'll just say is the Israelis have not been invited into this war yet, right? The U.S. has kept the Israelis at bay, and the Iranians have not attacked. The moment that the Israelis are invited in, whether by the Iranians or us or in some other way, get ready for another wave of decapitation strikes. We don't do that here, but the Israelis have no problem going after the clerics, the IRGC, the top military leaders, that's the stuff that I think could really sway this conflict. And so it wouldn't be the worst thing if the Israelis step back into the rank. Yeah. Again, I agree with it in the sense that that could have a significant impact.

Although the Iranian regime, again, they've had so many years to think about this. They've developed a very deep bench in terms of replacement personnel. But I think at some point you do get to that bottom of that well. Jonathan is always It's a terrific talking to your great insight. Really appreciate it and I hope that next time we call you, you'll pick up that phone.

We'll do, Mike. Thanks a lot. Jonathan Shanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracy's great guy. And coming up next here on the PDB situation report, well, Ukraine is bringing the war home to ordinary Russians by targeting the country's logistics network and fuel supply. We'll be joined by Constantine

Samuilov. He's a Russian ex-Bexbats, You know him. He's been on the show. And creator of Inside Russia. So go to YouTube if you want to check out his channel. It's at Inside Russia. It's well worth listening to to break down what's really happening inside the country. We'll be right back. So stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. How many times during the week do you drop 10 or 20 or maybe $30 on essentially meaningless items? You know what I mean? Impulse buys are just stuff that you honestly don't need. Those impulse purchases, of course, add up.

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This Thursday, we're faced with a threat. That can be anyone. The world may have forgotten Peter Parker. I'm just a neighbor, friendly neighbor. But he hasn't forgotten them. Sometimes Spider-Man has to do the hard thing. That's my responsibility. Dr. Banner?

I didn't know you could get that big. Spider-Man, brand new day in theaters Thursday. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. For years, the Kremlin has largely succeeded in insulating ordinary Russians from the day-to-day consequences of the war in Ukraine. But that is beginning to change. Ukraine's recent drone campaign has shifted from oil infrastructure to Russia's logistics network, including major strikes on Wildberry's distribution centers.

That's basically Russia's Amazon, while continued attacks on refineries have contributed to fuel shortages across parts of the country. The result is a growing disruption to everyday life and new questions about how long the Russian public will tolerate it. For more on this, I want to bring in Constantine Simolo, a Russian expat who left his country in the fall of 2022. Now, he runs the popular YouTube channel at Inside Russia

where he offers commentary on the current situation within Russia. If you haven't been watching that, I suggest you wander over to YouTube and check out at Inside Russia. Constantine, it's great to see you again. Mike, thank you very much for having me fantastic to be back on the show. Excellent. Well, we have a lot to cover. We have a lot to talk about. But let's start with, it's a broad question, I admit, but let's start with your assessment of the current situation in the conflict between Ukraine.

Russia. Would you like me to assess the military part or the economic or the society? All of it. No, no, let's start with, let's start the current, let's start with the current because I think most people when they think about this conflict, you know, they immediately go to the battlefield, you know, who's making progress, who's losing ground. So let's start with that. But then I want to migrate to all the other issues and then kind of start diving into this issue about, you know, where are the people of Russia currently on this whole conflict? But let's start with a military assessment from your perspective. From what I understand, Russia hasn't made any progress in the last 12, 18 months.

The front line has been frozen. It's not moving anywhere. On Russian national TV, they boast about how. Russia will take over the entire Ukraine soon. The victory, absolute victory, is just around the corner. How Russia is advancing a great deal is just they're not moving anywhere. I also understand that the situation inside Russian army is getting worse. Basically, it's rotting from the inside.

Vladimir Putin was given an ultimatum a couple weeks ago by people inside the army, and he acknowledged it, and he's dealing with the consequences right now. So basically, things are not looking well. I'm sorry for interrupting Constantine. What was the ultimatum, and who did it come from? There was one serviceman. He made a public message, and he directed it to Putin about 15, 20 days ago.

And basically, he was very clear. He said, you know, Mr. Putin, you've got to meet me at the Kremlin. Our meeting is going to be televised. They'll lie into you. I want to tell you the truth. Okay. And there's no question about that. You have to meet me.

And if you don't, the army will turn weapon against you. So, and then 18, well, 20 million people watched it. It was posted on Telegram. And instead of just ignoring this message, you know, who knows? just a crazy guy threatening Putin. Peskov admitted that the message was heard. The message was analyzed, and the guy was invited to Moscow to meet Putin. So it worked.

His ultimatum worked. It showed that Putin is weak enough to negotiate with whoever, you know, representative of some forces inside the army. So the guy since then was arrested for 11 days, really. and right now the situation is still developing. So, I mean, I think part of it is, I think Putin is, you know, correct in assessing the power of social media, right? So if that, if that ultimatum or that request for a meeting was put out on telegram and perhaps other social media channels, I think Putin understood how rapidly it ricocheted around Russia. But you say he was arrested after he got to Moscow?

On the way to Moscow, he was invited to meet Putin, and he was arrested on the way. And in a very odd case, he was held for 11 days. They never arrest anyone in Russia for 11 days. Usually it's two or three months, and then they keep on, from the time of investigation, they keep on prolonging that time. So he was arrested for 11 days and released. he changed his stand completely, saying, you know, I've always supported Putin. So they've talked to him or they've done something to him while creativity.

I'm not to change your heart after 11 days into Moscow. Yeah, yeah, I know, I know. But the thing is, the message here is that Putin is becoming weaker. Okay, he does not project fear into the servicemen, the army generals, no, instead they get together and they send someone to give them ultimatum. And then he responds. That itself projects weakness. So we're in a very interesting time.

It's very interesting when you think about who he needs support from, right? He needs support from his generals. He needs support from the elites. He needs support from the oligarchs to some degree. He needs support from key members of his cabinet, his group. It doesn't really need much support from the Russian population, it seems, because I don't know that he really cares unless things really start to tip over. But to that point, I wanted to get your thoughts on, it's going to sound like a strange question,

but the shakeup that just took place in the Ukrainian leadership, military leadership. So, Federal, the defense minister was removed or pushed, out of the cabinet, reportedly because of a longstanding dispute over strategy with the commanding officer of the Ukrainian military, Sirisky, General Searski. And then you had protests. People took to the streets because they believe that Fedorov a much younger officer, you know, has the right strategy. He's pushing for technology.

He's pushing for more drone engagement. He's pushing for autonomous platforms. a new strategy of how to defeat Russia. And meanwhile, Siersky is sort of old school, right? He grew up in the Soviet military system. So after a few days of protest, now it's all changed. And they replaced or they pushed out Siersky. They haven't brought back Federov.

I don't think he's particularly interested at this stage. But they've replaced Siersky in response to what was happening in the streets. Not massive protests, but sufficient and consistent. So where the question goes is, I was hoping for your assessment of Putin's grip on his own military leadership. To what degree should he worry about the positions of some of his key military leaders? First of all, looking into Ukraine, it's a shining example of how civic society should work. You know, people of Ukraine getting together, taking it to the streets, protesting, basically sending a message to its government saying, hey, you know, we don't like what you've done. That's going to change. And the government, you know, making changes. So that is a fantastic showcase of how democracy works. And then I think that's why Putin despises Ukrainians just for that. Because they take their fate into their own hints.

Okay. And that's not Russia. That Russia is not like that. Putin rules over Russians unconditionally. And then he hates this idea that people can decide their fate. Okay. So that's just one remark. Now, you mentioned that Putin needs the support

of the military, of the Secret Service, the KGB, the FSB, the Silaviki, and the Adegarks. And there's no need to get support from people. I agree with that, absolutely. They could care less for the support from people, and they don't have the support of the autigarchs any longer. At this point, Putin is arresting his call. closest circle members, closest. Ilya Traber was arrested, untouchable, unsinkable for, you know, 26 years, for 36 years, for that matter.

Then, Arkady Rotenberg, he's one of his best, closest friends, Judah partner from way back, is getting circled by the secret police. His business associates are getting arrested. So Putin is done with the oligarchs. He is enough with the support. He's sending them a message. You fear, because if I arrest Traber and Rotenberg is in trouble, you could be next. Okay.

A lot of oligarchs are moving their money out of Russia. They're fleeing, basically. And so there's no support from them anymore. There is certainly support from the FSB. They are big and most powerful agency right now, but the most important force in Russia that can change things in heartbeat is the military. Most coups in Russia were staged with help a military. All the generals have to do is get together and say, hey, you know what? That's a raw deal.

We got to point our guns to a different direction. And I think that Putin is incredibly afraid of that. he's been eliminating strong figures in the military. At this point, there's hardly anyone who can stage a coup. Gerosimov is, you see, Putin has placed all the generals right now. They're corrupt. There is a lot of compromise on them. You know, the hands are in blood, basically.

And that's why they are in their positions. and those who were strong, bagged by soldiers such as General Papov, are in prison. Yeah, it is, I don't want to say it's a classic tale of how these sort of regimes or authoritarian governments work, but it does seem to be sort of rinse, repeat. You always see this sort of the same thing. You see that in China, with the Communist Party there in China, and with Xi Jinping's behavior towards his military, military leadership and how he picks and chooses and supports or who doesn't and suddenly they're

disappeared from the scene. Constantine, if you could stay right where you are, we do have to take a quick break. And then we'll be back with more from Constantine Somolov. If you have not checked out his YouTube channel, please do. It's at inside Russia. So stay with us. We'll be right back on the situation report. When Westcham first took flight in 1996, the vibes were a bit different. People thought denim on denim was peak fashion, inline skates were everywhere, and two out of three women rocked, the Rachel. While those things stayed in the 90s, one thing that hasn't is that fuzzy feeling you get when WestJet welcomes you on board. Here's to WestJetting since 96. Travel back in time with us and actually travel with us at westjet.com slash 30 years.

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Constantine Samoilo. You can check out his commentary on his very popular YouTube channel. Just wander on over to YouTube, you know where to find that, and search up at Inside Russia. Constantine, thanks very much for sticking around. Let's switch. I know this is, we've talked about this before, and I know it's, it's not a hard science. It's somewhat subjective, and, you know, it's kind of difficult to really take the temperature of the Russian population. But there have been some recent developments, right, that I wanted to talk with you about the Ukrainian effort to strike consistently deeper into Russian territory, whether they're hitting oil infrastructure, military installations, whatever they

may be targeting, it's proven fairly effective, right, in the sense of bringing the war closer to the people who, for quite some time, have a bit been sheltered from the conflict. And that's been a very conscious and consistent effort from Putin, I think, in his cadre, to try to get it so that the population doesn't necessarily feel this war. certainly not the way the Ukrainians do. And now the Ukrainians have been targeting more infrastructure that, essentially it's logistical infrastructure that supports the military machine. And there's been reporting they've struck some warehouses for Walburys when Walburys is

essentially the Amazon delivery service and supplier for the Russian population. So talk to me if you could about what impact that sort of activity by the Ukrainian military has on the Russian population. Huge impact. Huge. It's even more strange to understand that the guy who created this system that hits Russia's weak spot so effectively it was just forced to leave, you know, but that's a different topic.

So the impact on Russian people has been, it's really hard to underestimate it. Imagine that for over a month now, Russians have had. very hard time just refueling the cars. Some provinces are hit harder, some are in a better situation, but in some provinces people waited for as long as 56 hours to get seven, eight gallons of gas. There's a huge problem in Russian economy, and Russian government is trying to make good face, to keep good face, saying things are under control, but all you have to do is go to a nearest gas station, look at line and prices that they sell gas. Can I ask you, what is the basically, I know, ballpark figure, what's the price of, say,

a gallon of gas because I don't think many viewers in the U.S. are thinking in terms of leaders, even though the metric system was supposed to take over the U.S. 40 or 50 years ago. But for a gallon of gas, what are people in Moscow, for instance, paying, do you think? Triple for what they used to pay a month ago, or drill five weeks ago. They tripled for one liter. They're paying about $3, $12 a gallon, my bet, something like that. Okay. You would have an insurrection in the streets of America if citizens had to pay $12 a gallon.

Let me tell you, Mike. People have started asking questions in Russia. I speak to a lot of this is my. That's what I do. I try to gather as much information as I can. And I speak to a lot of people on the ground, regular folks. And they started blaming Putin. Putin turns out as a very easy target, okay, because people trusted him. They trusted that he's surrounded by incompetent servants, perhaps traitors, perhaps enemies of Russia, who somehow, you know, squeezed into his, you know, private circle, but it wasn't him causing all the troubles. He meant well, you know, it's them around, you know, the bad nobles, the good czar. Now things are changing. They start blaming Putin for the problems. And they think that Putin sold Russia. That's a very popular opinion. He sold Russia to the world's shadow government. Okay, their puppet masters and Putin is just

another puppet. The one world government. This is crazy conspiracy theories. And I when I asked them And then very educated, you know, good people tell me that and I'm amazed. So they need someone to blame because if they run out of people or governments or whatever, aliens, reptiloids to blame, it all comes down to them. That's my fault. I didn't vote or I voted for the wrong person. It's my responsibility. And all Russians hate that. They think they're not responsible.

They're not guilty. there, no to blame, because they can't do anything. Nothing is up to them, but everything is up to them. See, that's the deep analysis of what's happening inside their... Well, that is fascinating. I mean, again, you see that, I mean, it's a smaller example, but you see that in Iran. Now, the Iranian people, they don't necessarily hate to blame themselves. They understand they've been living under this theocracy. They also understand that every time they go out in the street, they get slaughtered, you know, during the course. of a protest. So that's a pretty strong incentive to not go out in the street. But I take your point.

Is there a sense that the situation is, I mean, in a sort of a deep felt way. Like if, again, if you started hitting Amazon, you know, in the U.S., right, people couldn't suddenly get their same day deliveries, you know, it'd be like paying $12 a gown. You would have people out in the streets with pitchforks and torches. But. to what degree, and again, I know it's tough, is there a real impact on citizens of whether it's Moscow, St. Peter, wherever, in the urban centers from the Ukrainian campaign to strike deeper and deeper into Russia and hit infrastructure? Are they actually feeling that impact other than the gas prices? Absolutely, absolutely. Everything is disrupted. The pressure is

building up. I don't know when there will be eruption, but it's coming. And the situation right now reminds me summer of 1991. Okay? There was still the USSR and on the surface

everything was strong. You know, there was army in place, the KGB, almighty powerful. You know, the Communist Party, Politburo was calling the shots. But the system, the foundation was, you know, rotten out. So basically, and you could feel the pressure in that summer I remember quite well. I see parallels between 91 and 2026.

And I'm not saying that the change of regime will come tomorrow or next week, you know. Perhaps it's going to be some time. But I see the similar processes happening. So, pressure is building up. Ukrainians are contributing by their strikes. Okay. And I believe that economy is the foundation of the society and the economy is basically in free fall. There are big problems with agriculture.

The farmers cannot harvest because there's a lack of diesel fuel in many places. And that's compounding. I mean, that's going to blow up. Yeah, there are a number of reports. about allocation of fuel, rationing of fuel, you know, instructing, okay, the fuel only goes to critical providers, companies that deliver food supplies. Because that's, again, once you walk into a grocery store

and the shelves are somewhat bare, that's what I mean by bringing the war, you know, in a deep felt way to the population, again, including gas prices, of course. if I could switch gears just a little bit in the time we have left, Crimea. What do you see happening there? How effective have the Ukrainians been in trying to isolate Crimea? And do you ever, this is sort of a follow-on question, but do you ever see a situation where this could end with Crimea back in Ukraine's hands? Okay.

Let's take step by step. A lot there. Crimea is isolated. It is a fact. There's lack of fuel there. You can get fuel. There's black market, and the liter costs an arm and a leg. If earlier I gave the number of $12 per gallon, then double that for the black market for gas of questionable quality.

Now, every day there are electricity blackouts, rolling blackouts, and that brings a lot of troubles. For example, once there's no electricity, the drinking water stops flowing because pumps use electricity to pump water. Okay. A lot of people are leaving Crimea. that's fact. And people just don't know what to do. What will come next? They're hoping for the best, but how long can they hope for?

How long that hope can last for? So that's what's going on with Crimea. If you went to a street in Sienferopal, Yalta, or Sylvastopol, you would see empty streets. Because people either walk or they take bicycles, very few cars, compared to. to, you know, six, seven weeks ago. And can Crimea end up back in Ukraine? Yes, it can. It would be a sending turnaround, given what the initial assessment was

and where this conflict might be going even in the first two or three years, right? But just just one minute, you know, that's very important point about Crimea is when people, when Crimea was annexed back in 2014, a lot of people, there were actually pro-Russian and a lot of them celebrated. I mean, I saw it. My father is from Crimea. I still have family living there. They were

celebrating. They were Jewish. They were saying, okay, we are part of Russia now and that's fantastic. Now a lot of people understand that they've been betrayed. They've been you know, that power over Crimea was given to basically a bunch of crooks

and right now, Russian army does not protect from air strikes, from drone strikes, Crimea, and Moscow doesn't ever react. They don't care what happens in Crimea. So people, those who supported and welcomed Russia 12 years ago,

now they're very disappointed, at least a lot of them, very disappointed and feel betrayed. And that, I don't believe that Ukraine will take Crimea by guns, you know, by weapons. But that disappointed, can backfire at Putin a great deal.

That's what I think. That's fascinating. And also, I mean, it was early days. Early days I was saying when people would talk about Crimea, I said, look, there's no way Putin is ever giving up a strategic port for his Black Sea fleet, but he's moved most of the Black Sea fleet out. So you could argue the utility of Crimea, it's now costing him more to hold onto it. that it's the current while you.

But I tell you, we will be talking, I suspect, before that happens, because I don't think this is going to be over in the near future. But, Gassatina's always, man, listen, I really appreciate you taking the time to speak with us and all the folks who tune into the PDB. Really appreciate it. Thank you very much. My pleasure being here. Thank you.

Kosti, some more love. Again, don't forget, go on over to YouTube and check out his channel. It's at Inside Russia. insight, commentary about what's going on from the Russian perspective, right? All right. Well, that is all the time that we have for this week's PDB situation reports. I know. Time flies. Look, if you have any questions or comments, maybe a humorous anecdote or two, possibly a limerick, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. You know what I'm about to say. The highlight of every week at PDB headquarters. We have a secret compound. I can't tell you where.

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