The President's Daily Brief - The PDB Situation Report | September 19th, 2026: Iran’s Targeting of U.S. Forces May Be Getting More Dangerous & Putin’s Wartime Election

Episode Date: September 19, 2026

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report:• New reports suggest Russian and Chinese companies may be helping Iran improve its ability to target American forces across the Middle East. Open Source Intelligence Analyst Ryan McBeth joins us to break down what the reporting shows and what it could mean for U.S. troops in the region.• Russia heads into parliamentary elections this weekend as the war continues to strain the country, but voters will see virtually no meaningful opposition to Vladimir Putin’s ruling party. Konstantin Samoilov of Inside Russia joins us with a look at the political climate inside the country.To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com.Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President’s Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybriefArca Wealth: The President's Daily Brief listeners can book a complimentary financial planning call with an Arca advisor at https://arcawealth.com/pdb Quince: Refresh your wardrobe with timeless, high-quality pieces from Quince—go to https://Quince.com/PDB for free shipping and 365-day returns!

Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes, thank you again for noticing I am back on the road. Let's get briefed. First up, new reports suggest that Russia and Chinese companies may be helping Iran sharpen its targeting of American forces across the Middle East. Open source intelligence analyst and great friend of the show, Ryan McBeth.

He joins us for more on that. Later in the show, Russia holds Parliament. elections this weekend, ooh, I wonder who's going to win, with growing strain from the war, but virtually no opposition, of course, to Putin's ruling party. We'll be joined by a good friend of the show, Constantine Samoa of the YouTube channel inside Russia for some insight into that. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight. This week, new reports emerged that Russian and Chinese companies may be helping Iran improve its targeting of American forces across the Middle East, basically providing intelligence or targeting data to make the Iranian regime's attacks more lethal.

Most recently, investigators found that 14 Russian satellites passed over Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia in the days before an Iranian strike that wounded U.S. personnel and damaged key American aircraft. That follows separate reporting, linking Chinese satellite imagery to another Iranian attack on U.S. forces in Jordan. So what exactly is Iran getting from these foreign partners and how much of a difference could it be making on the battlefield? Joining us now is a great friend of the show. I didn't say good. I said great. Ryan McBeth.

Now, you know him, right? Ryan's an open source intelligence analyst. He won't tell us what that actually means. You can check out his YouTube channel. It's at Ryan Macbeth programming or at Substack. He also won't tell us what that is. It's at Ryan Macbeth. dot substack.com.

If you're not paying attention to Ryan, I don't know what you're doing with your time. Ryan, thank you, man, for being back here on the situation. Thank you so much for inviting me. It's always a great time. Yeah, well, look at you going right out of the gate with a compliment. I feel pretty good. I'm in Florida today. I'm going to a cigar factory in a couple of hours to shoot a commercial.

Life isn't so bad right now. The Polish-A-Rangians would stop messing with our, or video connection, we would have been able to do this a half hour ago, be out smoking cigars. Yeah, no, you know what? You're not wrong about that. Yeah, but I got to tell you something. Normally, you're the guy with the most interesting backdrop in podcast land. And so that explains that you're traveling right now, which explains why your backdrop is so generic, as opposed to mine, which, yeah.

You know, I've got, I've got to go to Durrell on, I got to go to Durrell this weekend. I got to go to Tampa next weekend. You know, us guys up at Fort Mead, we have to work for a living. We can't just steal gold bars from our employer like you do it likely, you know, some of the off-well. Tell me, tell me about it. You know what? Look, it's, it's, people don't think that people work at the agency simply for patriotic reasons.

It's really because we can just abscond with anything. You walk in, you say you need a couple of high-end luxury sports cars for an operation, and they say, well, why? And you say, it's secret. Can't tell you. Next thing you know, you got $40 million in gold bars stashed away at your home. Yeah, that's a story and a half right there. We'll talk about that some other time, possibly over a drink and a cigar. But first, you know, there's some stuff going on out there in the world, man.

And we should talk about that. What do you know and what can you tell us about? Russia and Chinese targeting support for the Iranian regime? That's a very good question. I can tell you that there is a non-zero chance that Russia and China are providing targeting assistance to Iranian targets. The question becomes how actionable is that intelligence? because if a ship is moving at 30 knots and I get information that, hey, we have the USS Abraham Lincoln

at this location, but that intelligence is an hour old, well, that ship has moved somewhere in a 30 miles circle in the time it's taking me to get that information. Now I've got to get that information out of the targeting cell and I have to get that information out to the launcher. So now it might be an hour. And now you have a 60 nautical mile circle. Now for buildings that are sitting exactly where buildings don't tend to move.

So if Russia or China has some good intelligence that, hey, this is where a fleet commander is, or this is where a big logistics note is, or hey, we got a hit from a guy using his garment at the base gym, we know this guy's a carnal and we know what building he is likely to be in when he's doing his workout, we can hit him there. Then that targeting information becomes useful. However, I don't believe that Russia and China have officers that are embedded with the IRGC working with them directly, or even IRGC officers that are in Russia or China who are relaying this information. I think, I think they are more likely just going out on the public internet, buying the satellite data from China. You can even get synthetic aperture radar from private sources.

And you can grab that in running. Ryan, we shouldn't let that one go by. For the uninitiated who aren't experts in synthetic aperture surveillance, could you explain that in 30 seconds for less? Oh boy, I don't know if I can So instead of a visual picture You have a radar picture That comes down from a satellite And you can even bounce it inside of things like buildings

Or hangers to get a picture of what's going on inside that building Is that a good way of describing it? Yeah, look at you That was very good that it was in 30 seconds or the last Okay, so let me let me let me Let me stop you there for a second So you don't buy the idea that this is an official Kremlin effort or CCP or the PLA and China to provide the Iranian regime with intelligence, with targeting data, using their going out and perhaps acquiring this from perhaps Russian or Chinese companies.

But it's not an official act of the Russian government or the Chinese government? I don't totally buy it, mainly because the Iranian. are very, very good at what they do intel-wise. And if they had partnered with Russia, then Russia would give them targets that Russia wants to see destroyed, not necessarily targets that Iran wants to see destroyed. So, to put that different way,

Russia might see some American radar system that it knows we've considered selling to the Ukrainians. Russia might say to Iran, hey, there's this new radar system, you should destroy this. And so now you're getting targets and now you're becoming an errand boy for Russia because they want to see how that system performs.

They're not actually trying to help you. And hitting that target, I mean, I see what you're saying. I just think that I'm going to push back a little bit because I think that perhaps the Russians and the Chinese are a little more sophisticated, and that they're probably, if they were doing this, not saying they are,

but if they were providing Intel support, specifically some form of targeting data, that they would be a little bit more sophisticated than saying, you know, what we want is to destroy X. So you destroy X. I think they might look at it a little bit more from a more layered approach in terms of what benefits the Iranian regime in a sense on the periphery is going to benefit the Chinese Communist Party, right?

You're creating additional chaos. You're keeping, you know, the U.S. with skin in the game because that distracts them, et cetera, et cetera. So, but again, I see what you're saying. Do we have any credible, from your perspective, do we have any credible intelligence that supports the idea that it's not the Kremlin or it's not the, it's not Beijing itself providing this level of support. I don't think we have any credible evidence either way,

at my level right now or at like an open, unclassified level right now. And nobody's going to come out and say that, right? You just have to look at things from the standpoint of if you were an Iranian, and you would probably be suspicious of any intelligence coming from China or coming from Russia because you have to wonder like, all right, these guys are using us to see what capabilities the United States has. Doesn't mean China, Russia is saying, oh, here's our target, do us a favor. But they might selectively give you information to see what you would do with it, just so they can grab information on the performance of an American system where electronic warfare or

after drone system. And as an Iranian dude with very little satellite capability, you're probably going to take that information with a grain of salt and have a conference and say, okay, this is what the Russians are saying we should hit. What do you guys think? Now, the other end of that, you look at stuff that you can buy on the open market.

Well, now you get a whole plethora of satellite imagery. And you might have, the Russians or Chinese might have, human intelligence sources at some of these bases, right, people who clean or whatever, that might provide a little additional information. But if you're an Iranian guy, I would personally rather buy satellite information from a publicly traded company like we've seen China doing, where these guys say, all right, let me buy information about the region, okay, hey, this matches up with our intelligence work that we did, tracking the fit bits and garments of soldiers, this is likely a gym.

Let's hit that. Whereas the Russians might want you to hit some kind of new radar. Yeah, I get it. You get up to cause casualties. Yeah. I mean, it is interesting. There certainly has been enough discussion, right? Again, you're right at a certain level.

They're not going to release sources and methods. But in terms of just, you know, Chinese companies. for making satellite inventory available to the Iranian regime. And then some new reporting coming out talking about, you know, the Russian satellites passing over Prince Sultan Air Base, you know, just before and after the Iranian strike that wounded what a dozen U.S. personnel and took out some assets, including, I think, an EC3. So, you know, I'm not, I'm not.

not ready to go there yet to say that the Kremlin or Beijing's not involved in this, because they will do whatever's in their best interest. And right now, their best interest, I think, is to keep the U.S. tied up in this. And they certainly have shown in particular, look, China's Iran's larger just trading partner, right? They've kept them in the game. And, you know, just like China's kept Russia in the game in a way in Ukraine. So I'm not willing to absolve them yet as officially providing the same. sort of support. But I take your point. And we, you know, at best, we just have to really say we're speculating in that regard because we don't have access to the classified information that would

prove it. But all right, let's let's pivot if we could, just because I know you've got to get to that cigar factory. I want to be mindful of your time. What have you seen in terms of the Iran conflict, let's say over the past week or two, that has you, I'll let you kind of take it from here, but I'm going to give you options. What has you most alarmed? What surprised you the most? You can go in either direction. Oh, boy.

I guess, I guess the answer to both those questions, what surprised me the most, what has me most alarmed is the Houthis, which are tangential to the conflict. The Houthis actually, they were able to yeat themselves across to the Red Sea, captured two islands inside the Red Sea and basically put a stick in the eye of Saudi Arabia. If you look at Saudi Arabia's military, 290,000 troops, excellent equipment, some of the worst leadership on the planet. and Saudi Arabia couldn't do a damn thing about this. And this kind of adds me concerned because when you look at, why did Saudi Arabia buy all this capability?

Jet fighters and ballistic missile systems and laser systems that can shoot down drones. They bought it because the Saudi military needs to be tough enough that you don't mess. with them, but not so tough that they overthrow the government. That's the issue you have with any palace guard army. And palace guard armies are the norm, not the exception. In most of the Arab world and I would say some of the Asian world, palace guard armies exist to protect the ruling family. You want multiple units, each of which is overlapping functions, but no joint operations that control everything. You also want to put family members in certain positions of command, whether they're competent or not. And I think the biggest concerning thing, and I'll tell you another concerning thing, when the Houthis took over, Param Island, which is an island that's kind of in the middle of the Red Sea, close to Bobham, ended up straight.

And talking over, Saudi Arabia went to the United States and asked President Trump, hey, can you kick these bad guys off the island? And Trump said no. And that is almost 50 years of American relations with Saudi Arabia. I'm not saying gone. But I'm sure the Saudis are looking at their phone and they're going, did he just hang up on me? We've been paying and proof. Five years. What?

Ryan, hold it, hold it right there. Hold him right there. Don't go, don't, don't, don't carry another thought of this. I've got to be mindful of time. We've got to take a quick break, all right? We're going to come right back to that conversation because he touched on a very important point. We'll be back with more from the great Ryan Macbeth.

They're on the situation report, so stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here with a pro tip for managing your personal finances and investments. Now, let me ask you a question. Have you ever found yourself sitting up with your laptop, late at night just staring at investment information or tax advice or Googling to find out what exactly a Roth conversion is. Look, you work too hard to be trying to figure out complex investment decisions on your own. Maybe you do have a financial advisor, but maybe they only show up once a year, and usually it's because you call them. Well, meet ARCA wealth.

That's ARCA, ARCA, one advisor for all your complex finances. Arka tracks investing dates, tax deadlines, scenarios for retirement, or a business exit that you might be planning, ARCA's on it before you ask. It's proactive advice because great service anticipates. It doesn't react. Right now, the president's daily brief listeners can book a complimentary financial planning call with an ARCA advisor at ARCAwealth.com slash PDB. That's ARCA, again, ARCAWalth.com slash PDB.

Every ARCA wealth advisor is a fiduciary, legally and ethically bound to act in your best interest. ARCA wealth is fee only, so what you pay is transparent. For important disclosures, please visit ARCAwealth.com. This segment is a paid promotion for ARCA wealth. Full disclosure, I'm not a client, and the PDB does have an incentive to endorse ARCA wealth. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is the great Ryan Macbeth.

You know him, you love them. You can check out his YouTube channel. That's at Ryan Macbeth programming. Head on his substack, when they were going to find out what that is, substack.com slash at Ryan Macbeth. Substack.com slash at Ryan Macbeth. Write that down. Well, I have links to both of those on the show description.

Ryan, thank you, man. After that introduction, we have no more time. So drive safely. You raised a really interesting point just before we went to break. And that is that the Saudis, you know, did come to the point. House to say, can you give us some assistance here with the Houthis? And the White House basically said, oh, and so they said we will continue offering intelligence support and, you know, a bat on the back. Now, what that did is there's been some reporting that just talks about, I don't want to draw a direct line between that event and this, what I'm about to say, but you have to imagine there's something there.

The Saudis turned to the Chinese for some support. And that shouldn't be surprised. So look, for almost 50 years, we've had this deal with the Saudis. We'll protect you, just buy our weapon systems. That way we can earn some money. And then we'll use Americans to defend your borders. And your military can be for show. And then when they actually freaking need us the first time since 1990,

we turn her back on them and say, yeah, we're a little busy right now. We're not going to help. And that is a departure from 45, 50 years of relationships with the kingdom. I think part of it said we can manufacture our own oil now. We weren't as dependent on foreign oil as we were back in 1990. because look, let's get real here. If Kuwait's main export were strawberries, we have given a crap about them in 1990, right?

I think what this really tells us is how we might behave with Taiwan. So you have Bob Al Mendeb straight where 15% of world shipping goes through that. You have Taiwan where 90% of our chips are made. made, right? If China decides to take Taiwan, could this administration say, you know what, we can build our own chips? Now, that would certainly hurt. But if the factories that manufacture those chips are destroyed during the fighting, if you are looking at this from a very pragmatic view, and I'm talking like you watch that movie very bad things with Christian later and you have a 105 pound problem that has to get set moved from point A to point B.

If those fabs are destroyed during the fighting, is there any reason to support Taiwan anymore from a strictly transactional standpoint? And you have to question that. You have to wonder whether Taiwan, we can tell Taiwan, listen, without chips, you basically export strawberries. And we really They don't care what happens to you after that. So I think they disagree. You've raised a really key point that I think sometimes seems to go missing. It's a relatively simple point is that everything is interconnected, right? So, and one of being by that is we tell the Saudis, I don't want to say we told them pound sand, right?

But we didn't offer any assistance that they were looking for. time when they are getting squeezed from both sides in terms of their ability to move oil into the global markets. And that doesn't go unnoticed, right? The Chinese look at that. They're studying that. They're studying the American response at any given time, whatever administration is in charge. The Taiwanese are looking at that, right? The Russians are looking at that. Everything has a knock on effect. And so when the Saudis, and again, look, I, I, get it from a White House perspective like, oh my God, we're six months into the Iran war, right? Do we really want to broaden this conflict out? Do we really want to get embroiled in this

problem? We got our own munitions problem, right, in terms of depleted resources. Is that really what we want to do? We got the midterm elections in two months. So I get it. You can understand that. But this, it doesn't happen in a bubble, right? So this is going to have a larger impact. Yeah. Yeah, you're absolutely right. Well, thank you. It's very, here, I can say you this. I've always been ambivalent about the president, but one of his superpowers and one of his disadvantages is boorishness. The boorishness is what makes him play well to his base, but it also makes people very, very mad at him.

And if the president's approval rating we're at 80% right now, I'm sure we would be on that island, Piram Island kicking the hooties off. Unfortunately, some of the choices you make at a personal level are why you end up in certain kinds of situations. And if you don't have the public's backing, if you don't have a mandate from the people and they don't understand why this choke point is necessary, then yeah, they're going to look at that and go, well, we wouldn't send our children to die for Piram Island. And ultimately, that kind of works its way up into the administration of, hey, sorry, guys, you're out of luck. Now, one thing.

And at the same time that, at the same time that that influences the decision, the decision of, well, we don't, we don't want the voters paying $2 more a gallon for gas going into the elections. I mean, it's a, again, this is not a, you know, statement of rocket science. but we do tend to simplify the Middle East to an incredibly frustrating point. And I want to get your opinion on this development as well. Reportedly, the administration, the U.S. administration held a secret meeting or a series of secret meetings with Qutti mediators. Now, the Qutis, obviously, are Iranian proxy group. They've been supported, trained, resourced, guided by the Iranian regime for quite some time. So the U.S. meets with the Qutis, and reportedly the Qutti mediators basically say, look, we're not going to attack U.S. ships.

We won't even attack Israeli ships. We're not going to attack commercial vessels in the Red Sea. We want to maintain this ceasefire or this agreement that we have with the U.S. but, you know, the caveat is we're going to continue attacking the Saudis. Now, so the White House, it almost seemed like the White House was like, look at this, you know, we got this great conversation going on with the Qutis. The Lutis are being told to do this by the Iranian regime, right? It just seems, I've worried sometimes that we never learn our lessons in the Middle East,

and we never see the layers or the complexity or the connections that are. involved. I think I would be more worried if we actually believe these guys that, oh yeah, don't worry, we're never going to shoot an American shifts. Like, think, yeah. All you need is some breakaway faction or,

you know, people can change their minds. They can change their minds. You know, like, I feel like shooting American ships today. So, I mean, it's great to have a deal, but you know what works really well in a deal is when the, the, the,

the enemy is afraid of you. When they're thinking, you know what, let's not change our mind because we're going to have the entire, entire brigade from the 82nd Airborne fold on top of our heads. You know, that motivates you to stick with the deal. So it is kind of funny looking at going, hey, we have a deal. Yeah, benefits.

This isn't great about Saudi Arabia. But, you know, I guess right now it's kind of the, who do we want to be friendly with right now? because in some ways we need Saudi Arabia less than we need the Houthis to not be shooting at our ships because we can make her on oil. Yeah, but whatever, again, I guess my concern is I just hope, and I'm sure they do, you know, but I just hope that the White House or the State Department of whoever's driving this bus, you know, when they're sitting down talking to the Houthis, that they understand that they're not really talking to the Houthis. They're talking to the Iranian regime.

And the Iranian regime has a lot invested in this. And there's no upside to them, right, to have the U.S. dragged in to the Houthi conflict just yet, right? Because if they can keep the U.S. out of that and the Houthis can continue to make gains against the, you know, Saudi-backed Yemeni forces as they have been recently going up and down to Wrenseek coast, then that's good for the Iranian regime. And I just, you know, again, we don't seem to sometimes connect all the dots when it comes to the Middle East. And Ryan, I am now going to get off my soapbox. And I'm going to say, thank you, man. Is there anything else going on in the short time we got left? Is there anything else going on that you wanted to highlight for our listeners?

Boy, I know. That was a big playing field right there. It is. It is a master playing field. I think the one thing I would highlight is how Russia took a bunch of drones and armed them with explosives, put them at a German airfield, and everyone in Germany just kind of shrugged and sent Russia a strongly worded letter. Whereas if Russia had done this four years ago, we would be bombing by now. And it's just kind of interesting how Russia's tactic of hybrid warfare will go slowly turning up the temperature to the point where action today would have been unthinkable four years ago is now becoming a lot. almost commonplace.

Yeah, that's a great point to end with. And that's exactly what we're going to pick up the next time that, Ryan, we have you on the show. Because we haven't even touched on the latest updates from Ukraine. We're going to go there the next time you come on. So that means you have to come on next time. Ryan Macbeth, again, thank you very much for joining us again today. All right, coming up next, Russia. Head to the polls this weekend for a parliamentary election that comes.

comes as the war weighs on the country, but with few real challengers to Putin's grip on power, meaning there's really no opposition on the ballot. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a pro tip for dudes who want to dress well without breaking the bang. Look, September is the perfect time for our closet reset before fall really settles it. And the best way to restock and replenish that wardrobe is with quince. Quince makes premium essentials, like breathable linens, soft. organic cottons and washable silks, minus the luxury markup, and that's important. Everything feels elevated. It's high quality without the high price. I'm a huge fan of their

shirts and t-shirts. The fit is just right, and the selection is excellent, not to mention their premium denim and chinos, which I did just mention. And as fall approaches, check out Quince's cashmere sweaters. They're super soft and luxurious, again, all at amazing prices. By partnering directly with ethical factories, Quince cuts out the middlemen, pricing items, 50 to 80% less than similar brands. Discover Quince Today for wardrobe essentials. Upgrade your everyday fit. I think that's what the kids say nowadays.

Your style, your fit, your duds. Download the Quince app for app-exclusive offers or go to quince.com slash PDP. Get free shipping on your order and get this. They've got a 365-day return policy. Now available in Canada and the UK too. That's Quince, Q-U-I-N-C-E. Quince.com slash PDB.

Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Russians head to the polls this weekend for the country's first parliamentary election since Putin's invasion of Ukraine. And there are signs that the war is taking a toll on the population. Public anxiety is rising. The economy is under pressure. And even Putin's approval numbers have slipped, well, somewhat in recent months. But, well, don't expect any dramatic political upset. The Kremlin has spent years, squeezing out genuine opposition with most anti-war candidates either

barred from running, jailed, or pushed to the margins. Putin's United Russia Party already dominates parliament. They control about two-thirds of it, and it is widely expected to maintain that control. Of course, it is. For more on this, I want to bring in a good friend of the show, Constantine Samuilov, a Russian expat, who now runs a very popular YouTube channel at Inside Russia. You can find that, of course, by going to YouTube, so get over there, and then search up at Inside Russia. He offers commentary on the current situation with Russia, and he's now here on the Situation Report. After a very relatively exciting, I believe, past few weeks. Constantine, it's great to see you again, Matt.

Thank you very much, Mike. It's been very stressful time. Exciting, yes, but more stressful and exciting. Yes, I'm back to YouTube. Yeah, tell us. Tell us what happened because it has been quite the saga and you're in a new location. Yeah, let's take it from wherever you want to take it from. Well, I'll try to be brief because that's quite a long story. I was interviewed by a very big ex-blogger Mario Nafal last November,

and that got me on the radar of Alexander Duggen, Putin's friend and the ideologist of Russian world philosophy. And I started noticing increased pressure. Since he threatened me on his ex-account, and he commented about my interview, I started noticing more and more following in real life by the Russians. And there was an attack on my YouTube channel, a big one, and I got proof. Someone contacted me with the proof of that.

And I started feeling mounting pressure starting in the beginning of this year. And, you know, a culmination was in July. I started not feeling well, and I ended up in the hospital. And as I was hospitalized, as I was moving into a ward, I got a call from Russia from the agency saying, hey, Constantine, hey, feeling, buddy. I hope everything is okay with you know. So anyway, they kind of hinted they wanted me to operate with them, which they refused. And the, that they started after I checked out of the hospital, they started following even. more, one of the agents showed up at Tashken Breakfast Club, Russian community that I found in Tashkent, as I was live streaming for patrons, and he was sitting right next to our

group and listening to what we were saying. And it wasn't just me noticing. Everyone noticed, and everyone got very scared. Well, welcome to my world. Anyway, I also got a warning from the local intelligence saying Kastin, you know, you're okay here, we know we're here, we know what's going on, but don't overstay our welcome, that type of thing. So we're backed up and we left. We're in Luxembourg now and we're trying to settle. So I feel much safer. I always spoke freely and on these shows as well, but now it's going to be just much more talking, okay, because I want the entire world to hear the story, and I want the entire world to hear what's really happening in Russia. So it moved into essentially harassing surveillance while you were still there in Uzbekistan.

And how's your health now? You got out of the hospital. How are you doing now? I still have a couple of things, but generally okay. I'm going to go to a local doctor to get thorough examination. check up but generally okay couple things are still lingering from that I believe I was I can't say I was poisoned because I don't have hard evidence you know but I believe something was I was influenced in one way or another you know and by the way I forgot to mention right before I fled it left Uzbekistan they called me again and they openly offered to copyright and they offered me said we have very good financial offer for you. So that was a day thing up and I ran basically as fast as I could. Yeah. So listen, I tell you what, we're very happy to see you in Luxembourg now.

Great, great place, by the way. And I look forward to sitting down over some beers and catching up with you here during the next trip out that way. But well done. I'll be fantastic. I'll be fantastic. Let's get down to, let's get down to, let's get down to, let's get down to, some of the latest developments. Okay, first of all, you know, the parliamentary elections, such as they are in Russia, talk to me about, you know, the election process, what you think will likely happen. Again, it doesn't appear to be any serious opposition on the ballot. But give me your impressions of the election process here.

Not only I can give you the impressions and forecasts, I can act as Oracle. you know, for this weekend. Your friendly neighborhood, Oracle, Constantine. Russia, the thing is, once Putin gained power, seized power, once he was made the president, he started building the vertical of power. And the elections is a huge part because in the system that Putin was building,

he needed his loyal people. He didn't need any competition, political competition, whatsoever. And step by step, he was eliminating it. He started with disbanding, well, eliminating governor's elections in Russia. Just like that, you know, governors were elected and then that said they were appointed by the Kremlin, by the president himself, which they later changed, 10 plus years later they changed, but they made it very controlled election governor elections. So then they started changing the ways that people can get elected.

Before it was free election, just pretty much like in the United States, any citizen could run for a seat. And then they eliminated that, now only political parties registered. Political parties could nominate their own members to run for the parliament. And then they made it very hard for smaller parties, more flexible parties to get on the list. So basically, they weeded out political competition.

And now there's one major party called the United Russia Putin's party. And there are a few controlled opposition, as they call it. Basically, it's the politicians that pretend to be independent, but they mean. made the deal with the Kremlin. Kremlin allowed them to be part of the political process in exchange for behaving well, let's put it this way. So we have come to 2026 at the situation where there's no political competition whatsoever. On paper, everything looks legit. On paper, there are different parties, but in reality, it's not even the United Russia. They're not calling the shots. It's one man makes a decision.

Yeah, and it's interesting because that fellow Putin, obviously, has come out and said, look, it's almost saying it's the, you know, the Russian, you know, voters' obligation to come out and support the troops, right? Support the Russian military as they carry out Putin's invasion going on almost five years at this point. And, you know, is there any, from your perspective, is there any, any, any, any, any, any, any, any obfussion? option for the voters. I mean, obviously there's a variety of parties. They all basically support Russia's, you know, war policy currently, Putin's policy. But is there any way for them to express their dissatisfaction with either Putin or the invasion, the war, other than just not showing up to vote? Well, not really. They cannot influence the election process. That's why I offered myself in the role on Oracle, because the election results are already known to some people.

And they'll be just announced in three days from now. But Russians can vote against the United Party of Russia. That's how they can show their disagreement with what Putin is doing, because the United Russia is Putin's party. That's their official affiliation. and that's how they project, that's their image. So voting for one of the smaller parties, like the Communist Party of Russia, the new people,

those are absolutely pro-Kremlin as well. They're controlled, but I think that's the best. Russians can do to show that they're against what Jim is doing to Ukraine and to Russia as well. That's pretty much the only option I have. The Russian opposition and exile here in Europe, in the United States, there are some politicians. They call for Russians to go and have flash mobs at a certain time. That's, again, that's projecting a signal that they disagree, act in a certain way,

or simply tearing up the ballots, things like that. But that's not going to change the official result. Yeah, and likely not going to happen, given the concept of mass protest is probably not. I'm going to take hold there. But I want to come back to this point, Constantine, but first we need to take a quick break. So if you'll stay with us, we'll have more from Konstantin Samoyov. And you can check out his YouTube channel.

Again, that's at Inside Russia. We'll be right back here on the Situation Report, so you know what I'm going to say? Stick around. Welcome back to the BDB Situation Report. Joining me once again, Konstantin Simoilov. You can check out his commentary on his very popular use. YouTube channel that's at inside Russia.

Kastasi, thank you very much for sticking around. We've been talking about the Russian elections, parliamentary elections, the lack of any real opposition on the ballot. So as you pointed out correctly, we know what's going to come from this. And was there any real concern? Because here in the West, we've talked about, we've highlighted the fact that the Ukrainian drone campaign, for instance, has been able to impact to some degree the Russian population, right? They've been striking deeper into Russian territory. They've been hitting everything from

warehouses to energy infrastructure. So it is, in a sense, bringing the war home to the Russian population. But I think in the West maybe we imagine then that, okay, that means there's going to be this great level of dissatisfaction amongst the Russian population and that there's going to be some sort of negative result for Putin. People are going to turn against Putin. Where exactly are we? And was Putin in your perspective and your assessment, has he ever been really worried about that or does he just believe he's got this kung fu like grip on power and it doesn't really matter what the population thinks? Mike, now we are descending into a very deep philadelphia philosophical discussion about Russians, who Russians really are.

And here I would like to, I'll try, I'll promise I'll try to be very brief. I would like to point out that Russians are unlike Westerners. And a lot of people in the West, they judge by their own standards, by themselves. For example, if gas goes up in price a great deal, then the popularity of current majority. in the Senate and current president drops, right? And people start protesting, speaking up and things like that. That doesn't happen in Russia. They think that Russians would do the same, but it doesn't happen.

Ukrainians have done tremendous damage to Russian economy and Russian society this past few months. No, Russia's undergoing the biggest fuel crisis, the biggest crisis ever since 1991. Its economy is in ruins. When I talk about the economy, I say Russian economy is in free fall. Okay, it's going to hit the ground hard. And that is not going to make Russians go and try to take their faiths into their own hands and try to change something. And their professional suffers for generations have been, they have been conditioned, engineered into a being.

And that's what they're doing right now. And the biggest outcome of the summer for me is that at first, when the Russians started running into problems, huge problems with gas, this simply shortage of gas and the prices have skyrocketed, they started complaining loudly for a few weeks, and then they got used to it. They adopted. And now they made this fuel lines, you know, the higher budgets fulfilled.

They made it. part of their lives you know it's to them it's like what can we do this is our life now we just have to live with it we have to and then the authorities keep feeding them oh just wait a little bit everything will get better just light is around the corner you know just vote

vote united russia you know just like you mentioned in the beginning you know united russia equals Putin equals victory in ukraine so if you want victory if you want good life come and vote for united at Russia because if you vote against, you are with our enemies, you know, that type of thing. So Russians are professional sufferers. So not going to, this problems definitely have made their lives worse, but they're not going to, at least for now, they're not going to ignite protest, ignite, you know, that are civic, civic conscience, so to speak.

Yeah. It's a great point. And I think you're right. And I don't want to say it's a uniquely American thing because you see it in the West at times outside the U.S., but Americans in particular tend to be very good at mirroring their values or putting their thought processed onto other cultures. And whether we're talking about Russia, China, or Middle East in particular is another good example. is another good example of where we just, we have a hard time understanding that other thought process and the way that people make decisions. And we tend to mirror our values and think,

well, if we just do this, then this is how they'll behave. This is how they'll react, because that's how we would react. So it is a significant issue that just never seems to change. Let me ask you this. Once the elections are over, there had been some talk that perhaps Putin was waiting for these elections to wrap up before he then would announce a new mass mobilization, possibly of some 300,000 or more personnel to shore up the military, which has been suffering some fairly staggering losses for quite some time. Do you think that that might be at play? It's not a question of might be. It's going to happen, and it will happen starting Monday. I have tons of signals coming from Russia, quite a few inside information,

quite a few pieces of inside information, and my general understanding of the society of the economy. Just give you a couple examples. The tariffs, they, you know, Russia, Russian state owns natural gas, owns most of the power plants. So the utilities, they come from Russian state. The Russian state sets the tariffs through provincial governments and so forth. So usually they increase once a year in July, and they increased from different provinces

from 7 to 22%. Imagine your utility bill goes up in one year, almost a quarter. But they decided to postpone from July until October 1st, to wait after the elections are over. Okay, so the utility hike starts verisal in a couple of weeks, and it was supposed to start in July. Now, a lot of people inside the government are evacuating their families and their assets because they know that they have been orders already for the mobilization. I have an insight, and this is the first time I'm voicing it online.

My insight says 1.8 million Russian men will be mobilized, or at least they will be mobilized. or at least they will be aimed. That number is the aim of mobilization. 1.8 are different numbers, but this is what I come up with. This is not if this is when, and the win is next week. But if we go back to 2022,

the last time there was a large-scale mobilization, we saw how unpopular it was. And, I mean, is, you know, If he's doing it again, it speaks to two things. Either they're in serious trouble in terms of their personnel, as it exists currently, their headcount for the military, and or also at the same time, it points to the fact that Putin really is confident in his position and is not worried. Again, going back to what we talked about just a moment ago,

about how the West has kind of been looking at this and thinking, I might be on shaky ground here. People are getting dissatisfied the economic conditions. conditions are bad, are they not unhappy with the war. He's going to go through this mass mobilization, knowing how it was received the last time. Kind of tells you he's feeling pretty comfortable. I don't think he is feeling comfortable now at all. I think quite on the country, I believe that, well, I see it from everywhere in Russia.

on that. What Putin started in 2022, not just the bomb in Ukraine, but to Russia as well, putting economy onto military tracks, going after small businesses, small and medium-sized businesses, taking away freedoms from people. This is not sustainable. You can live like this for some time until you have reserves. Once reserves are gone, and reserves, They're different kinds of reserves. Money that Russian government had stashed the savings account and the National Welfare Fund. People, businesses,

you can only go so long like this. And Russia has come to full storm. As I mentioned, it is the biggest crisis Russia has ever seen. People are dissatisfied. Their professional suffers. That's why they're not. taking it to the streets, but they're pretty angry.

The money is out. The economy is in ruins, basically. Russia is spending so much more that it's earning. And that cannot borrow because it's banned from international borrowing. And in Russia, no one has money to borrow. So the only way out is to print money that brings even more economic problems. If that does a case, I'm sorry for interrupting Constantine, but I need to be mindful of time.

But if that's the case, then what do you anticipate? And if the intel that you've got is solid and they do start this new mobilization, new effort next week, then what do you anticipate will be the reaction from the public? First of all, we'll try to fight it as much as they can.

They have been mobilizing people. They were manhunts in different cities. Rastal Vendon, Pienza, through the summer. You know, people aren't reacting. Those who, that concerns them personally, oh, they are outraged, but, you know, Russian informational space is much control. So there's not much information

if you don't specifically look for it, like I do, for example, like researchers do. So they have been mobilizing already. they will definitely mobilize, they will be mobilizing on Stovitz, that's what I used for term.

And the army is absolutely not moving anywhere. There's a dead end for Russian armed forces. And I think the plan is that they will try to get as many people as possible and throw them into the meat grinder

because the only tactics Russians have used so far is just they call it the meat storms. They send people and people get killed at the battlefield, but, you know, they send large numbers and then they push, you know, meter by meter. They push forward. That's why I think that they need such a large number of men just to push further into Ukraine and to gain some growth. Because right now there's nothing to show. The front line has been frozen since late 2022.

And Ukrainians are taking more land back than these days than that they are. that the Russians are seizing. Okay, so that's the only tactic they have left. And the big question for me, and I think for everyone, is, will Putin start escalating with the West? Will he invade or attack one of NATO countries? The Baltics, perhaps Poland, that no one knows. I don't think the decision has been made,

but that's been in the talks, I'm pretty sure. So that is under the question. What is not under the question is there will be taking more Russian mail, throwing them to the midgrinder, and that way they will try to gain advantage, which I don't think they will personally.

That's my opinion. Well, I say no, and thank you for that, but I think that what we need to talk about next time is what you've just alluded to, which is the Russian, however you want to refer to it, hybrid war against the European Union against NATO, allies. That's been going on for some time, but is getting increasing attention, right? And

this idea that they could be becoming more aggressive towards NATO countries, towards the Eastern Front of NATO for whatever reason. And we are seeing that. We're seeing more incidents in Europe that are being attributed to Russian sabotage. So I want to pick that up next time that we have you on, which implies that you need to come on next time when we call you. So I hope you will, Constantine. I love these conversations. Very happy that you're now sitting in a very new location. We wish you absolutely nothing but the best in settling in. And we also look forward very much to the next conversation, Matt. Thank you. Thank you very much. We'll talk to you soon. Constantine, Samoylob, you can find his YouTube channel. I suggest you go there. It's called

At Inside Russia. Once again, on YouTube. Well, that's all the time. have for this week's PDB situation report while I'm on the road. By the way, make sure you pay attention. Ole Miss going to be playing LSTU on Saturday. You won't want to miss that. If you have any questions or comments, haughty-toddy. Or humorous anecdotes, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. The highlight of every week, of course, at PDB egg quarters, which, you know, it's a secret location, but I can tell you that it's underground and it's involving some dormant volcano somewhere. is why Carl the Mailman. Seven Malphalians are a secret location

and drops off another sack of mail brimming with your questions and comments. Well, every month we take some of those. We put them into an Ask Me Anything episode and one is sitting on the launch pad and we're just polishing it up and we'll be sending that all here very shortly onto the internet

so the web thing, whatever that is. So keep your cards and letters coming. Finally, listen to the podcast of this show ad free. Just become a premium member of the president's daily brief. It really couldn't be simpler. You just visit PDB Premium.com and I mean it's easy, easy, bobs your uncle, whatever they say.

I'm Mike Baker. You don't get this sort of Paula show just anywhere. Until next time, you know the drill. Stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.