The President's Daily Brief - The PDB Situation Report | September 26th, 2026: Iran’s Economy Is Starting to Fall Apart

Episode Date: September 26, 2026

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report:• Washington tightens the economic pressure on Tehran with new sanctions aimed at grounding Iranian aircraft and cutting off key financial lifelines. Miad Maleki of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies joins us to break down the latest measures.• As sanctions squeeze Iran’s economy, we examine how severe the damage has become and whether mounting economic pressure could fuel new unrest inside the country. Alireza Jafarzadeh of the National Council of Resistance of Iran joins us with an inside look.To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com.Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President’s Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Pendulum: Ditch the afternoon crashes and naturally curb your cravings with 48% off the doctor-recommended Pendulum Metabolic Daily at https://pendulumlife.com/PDB MOD: For a free consultation and get 10% off your first order PLUS free shipping with promo code PDB at https://mod.com

Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Washington is tightening the screws on the Iranian regime with new sanctions and, of course, the continuing blockade of Iranian ports. We'll be joined by Miednalecki of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies to examine the sanctions campaign, the blockade's effectiveness, and what else the U.S. could do as it looks to force change in the Iranian regime. Later in the show, as Washington increases the economic pressure on Tehran, we'll look at the impact that that pressure is having on the Iranian people and whether that strain could translate into new unrest. We'll get an inside look from Ali Reza Jeffazadeh of the National Council of the Resistance of Iran.

But first, today's situation report spotlight. Washington is turning up the economic pressure on Iran, and the latest move is aimed at something very visible, keeping Iranian aircraft on the ground. The Treasury Department is warning foreign airports, fuel suppliers, ground handlers, and ticketing companies that servicing sanctioned Iranian carriers could expose them to U.S. penalties. Some countries have already begun restricting flights, while others, including China, well, there's a surprise, are resisting the pressure. The question now is how effective this campaign can be, how much further Washington can push it,

and whether Tehran can find enough willing partners to keep its airlines operating. Joining me now is Myad Maliki. He's a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former senior sanctions official at the U.S. Treasury Department. During his time of Treasury, Miad helped oversee sanctions targeting Iran and the network of groups that it supports across the Middle East. And it's quite the network of groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Khutis, and Iraqi militias. Miyadh, thank you very much for taking the time to join us here on the Situation Report. Thanks for having me. Great to be with you. I appreciate that very much.

And let me ask you a question. It's going to sound very simplistic. But I think a lot of people probably think the same way that I do. I pride myself on my simplistic ways. We just, I want to ask you questions about the airline sanctions that have been put into place that Treasury Secretary Scott Besson talked about. But in the world of sanctions, and I realize every situation is somewhat different, But with Iranian regime sanctions, you look at all the different things you could do. And I guess my question is, why don't we just do it all at one time?

It seems like there's a never-ending supply of other sanctions that we can layer on when perhaps, when we're talking about an organization like the Iranian regime, maybe we just say, let's just do them all at once. That's actually not a simple question. That's a very nuanced question. And here's my response to that. You know, sanctions work when they're enforced. These aviation sanctions that use as an example,

these sanctions have been in place for a very long time. What Secretary Besant is doing is bringing the operational aspect of sanctions, the enforcement. Yes, he's expanding the scope of sanctions. There are new sanctions that are being added, but the most important part of it is the enforcement. And why it's important? Sanctions are not, they don't work when you add a name to the list of sanctions. Sanctions work when compliance officers in companies, when bankers, when CEOs of corporations

that are involved, for example, in this case, in service providing provision of services to aviation companies, catering, those companies, those individuals, they make decisions to stop Iran business. And they make those decisions when they see there is a risk of being sanctioned. So you create that risk by enforcing, by showing them that there is a high level of risk

if they get engaged, if they get involved in bypassing those sanctions. So what Secretary Besson is doing is what, for example, President Biden administration didn't do. President Biden came in, wanted to engage with the Iranian regime for a deal. He didn't enforce sanctions. He didn't remove any sanctions, but he simply just stopped enforcing.

And when you stop enforcing, you have sanctions kind of not working anymore. So Iran went from at the end of the Trump administration, basically exporting around 100,000, 100,000 barrels a day to 2.5 million barrels a day. Sanctions didn't fall. Sanctions were in place. They were just not being enforced. And what Secretary Bestin is doing today is really enforcing the sanctions

and putting the sanctions to work. Okay. Well, I think that's going to confuse a lot of people who assumed that the only reason to have sanctions is if there are consequences. Otherwise, they're not even sanctions. They're just like, you know, they're suggestions. You know, hey, maybe you don't.

don't work with Mahan Air. So it is, I think, a very interesting point that you raised that probably will surprise a lot of people to think that the U.S. is then engaging in like this paper exercise of saying that we're sanctioning and then there are no consequences. Now, if that's the case and if we're now engaged in sort of the logical step here, which is to say that we are going to follow through on our talk about sanctions. This is a very broad question and kind of take it where we'd like to, but they also only work would be my understanding if key nations comply.

And the key nation for Iran is, of course, China. And China seems to have no interest in worrying about U.S. sanctions on Iran, at least at the present time. And yet we also, as a country or as an administration right now, we seem to have no interest in in making that point known to the Chinese regime. It seems like we've been very timid in approaching the Chinese Communist Party or Xi Jinping, the Chinese government, and really arguing this point or even bringing it up. It seemed like certainly during this summit, President Trump was like, it was a very good meeting.

Well, I don't see how you'd have a very good meeting. If we're at war with the country and China is the primary supporter of that nation, I guess what I'm saying is do you see where these sanctions actually can have a serious impact? I know the blockade's having a great impact, and I apologize for this long rambling question that I'm throwing your way. The blockade's having an obvious impact, but the sanctions themselves, if the key trading partner for Iran is not engaged in that with the U.S. I suppose the question is very cynical, but what's the point?

No, that's a really great question and a great point. So, yes, China has been always a problem when it comes to our worst adversaries. China was a problem when Biden administration was trying to put pressure on Russians, and China has always been a problem with Iranians. As a matter of fact, the only – So, for example, like our F-15 that was targeted over-Iranian airspace and went down, it was targeted by Iranian-used shoulder launcher, the surface-to-air missile that is made in China and was given to the Iranians.

So it is a problem. And I got to tell you, it's also very tricky to deal with China. U.S.-China trade is somewhere between $500 to $600 billion. Remember, after Mexico and Canada, China is our closest trade partner. I mean, you look at those numbers and you think we're close friends, we're buddies. We're the best friends. You're looking at the numbers, right? But the reality is China has leveraging that trade partnership to make things painful and difficult for us.

a national security front. So I think we do need to look into opportunities to also leverage the level that the Chinese rely on U.S. dollar and U.S. financial system to compel them to stop being a problem for us on a national foreign policy perspective, national security perspective. Now, I think 70 to 80 percent of Chinese trade still goes through U.S. dollar and U.S. financial system, or is done or transactions or settled using US dollars. So there's a lot of opportunities there for us to push the Chinese to be more aligned or at least not throwing roadblocks where we're trying to address certain issues. Now, Iran and China trade is somewhere between

$10 to $12 billion a year. If you add oil to it, Iran main purchaser of oil is the Chinese. However, the Chinese are not buying Iranian oil as Iranian oil. It goes to China as Malaysian is Iraqi oil. But the trade with Iran is about $10 to $20 billion a year. The trade with the U.S. is $500 to $600 billion a year. So the Chinese understand that they can't risk their U.S. trade over the Iran trade. And I've heard from Chinese officials that they view Iran's trade, trade more of a liability and problems as opposed to a partnership.

So I think we haven't pushed them hard enough. I think there are opportunities to push the Chinese to, at least in this case, not being as problematic as they've been. But also, Iran's decision to close the threat of foremost has been a major annoyance. It really is annoyed the Chinese. So we also have a diplomatic opportunity with the Chinese right now. to convince them that there would be consequences if they continue to use Iran as a leverage to pressure us.

And we are serious about the issue of Iran. I heard that President Trump actually raised this issue in the meetings yesterday. And I think there are probably, what I'm hearing is a lot of behind-the-scene engagements with the Chinese, the Chinese private sector, putting aside the slogan that comes out of the Chinese government, the Chinese private sector really care about their access to U.S. dollars.

They really care about their U.S. trade. And I think we have the engagement with the government, but the engagement with the private sector in China can be very fruitful and helpful in this case. Yeah, I would worry that, you know, when you say private sector, there's really not a private sector in China, ultimately. They're not going to act. You're not going to find it.

It's like when we talk about the concern that, you know, some China's not a private sector Chinese companies are providing satellite imagery that's helping the Iranian regime target American assets. It's not as if those companies are rogue. They're not acting unilaterally without the tacit understanding or approval of the Chinese government. It's not that sort of system. And so I worry about this notion that, you know, perhaps we can be pragmatic with the Chinese government, and talk to them about their support to Iran and then still do business with the private sector and one doesn't affect the other. But going back to your earlier point, you're absolutely correct. And you put it very succinctly. It's very complex dealing with China. Now, I want to jump back

into that, Miyadh, in just a second. But first, if you'll stay right where you are, we do have to take a quick break, and then we'll be back with more from Miyadh-Naliki of the Defense for Democracies. Hey, Mike Baker here with a pro tip for feeling your best. Now, let me ask you a question. Have you ever finished breakfast or lunch or dinner, but then you find yourself reaching for a snack maybe an hour later? It's true. Cravings can take over even when you're trying to eat healthy.

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you know, as you know, individual results can vary. Right now, podcast listeners can save up to 48%. I'm not good at math, but that's almost half of their first order at pendulumlife.com slash PDB. That's pendulumlife.com slash PDB to save up to 40% off your first order. Again, pendulumlife.com slash PDB. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. Joining me once again is Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, Miannaki.

Mian, thank you very much for sticking with us. We're talking all things, sanctions. in the Iranian regime. And talk to me about, without going too far into the weeds, I think it's probably a very technical subject, but talk to me about the difficulty of enforcing sanctions in today's world. Sure. That's, again, another great question. I think here's a challenge. When you get to, when Robert hit the road and you're actually going after enforcement of secondary sanctions. And secondary sanctions means when you go and tell, foreign countries, foreign partners, foreign governments, meaning non-Iranian, non-Russian,

but enablers, facilitators, those who help our adversaries bypass sanctions, those who have touchpoints with U.S. businesses and U.S. financial system. That's where the sanctions work. And when you go after those type of targets with tools like sanctions, the couple things that you've got to think about. one, what is, are you going to achieve the goal you want to get out of sanctioning that entity in a way that it would pressure, put pressure on your adversary? And how much of that pressure is going to be on the U.S. business?

Because remember, every time you use sanctions, you're giving away U.S. business, right, in the interest for the benefit of a national security interest. So we discuss the Chinese entities, right? So remember, we have an extremely large interest in the Chinese market manufacturing industry in China. So when we use these tools, how much of that is going to hurt U.S. businesses and U.S. interests versus how much of that is going to be pressure on our adversaries, right? So I think it's appropriate to use sanctions to go after bad actors. But we also, the difficulty here is to measure the effectiveness,

to see how much of that is going to really pressure our adversaries versus how much of that is going to really deprive U.S. business interests, right? So that's kind of the complexity of using sanctions when it comes to going after very effective targets. And now I guess you have all the difficulties involved in the investigative process, right, because it really is an investigative process to identify how a country is getting around sanctions, because in part, it all goes hand to hand, right? You lay out the sanctions, you explain the consequences and the secondary sanctions for countries or groups or companies

that decide to work with that sanctioned country, but you've got to be able to gather the evidence that's involved. Right, and then sanctions evaders have become very smart in how they're evading sanctions, whether it is counterfeiting documents, using series of front companies, for example, It does create the cost when sanctions evaders, when Iranians and Russians, instead of putting oil on a tanker, going from the oil terminal to the buyer, they have to do four or five rounds of ship to ship transfers. They have to counterfeit documents. They have to go through layers of intermediaries that are corrupt, that are charging commission. It's black market. So they lose a lot of profit.

And that's really a part of the goal of the sanctions, right? It makes those cargoes, those exports, less profitable for adversaries. But also going after those intermediaries is very challenging because they're really good at hiding their identities. They're really good at evading our sanctions. So you're absolutely right. And also remember, sanctions are legal tools. You have to establish some, you need to meet some legal threshold that certain entity has, in fact,

engage in bypassing sanctions. You've got to have evidence, you know, where a country of justice, a very strong judiciary. Like, we've got to establish some evidence before you can sanction an NPD, and it takes time. And in most cases, that activity should have happened already, meaning someone had done something wrong, and then you go after them with sanction. So sometimes the effectiveness comes after the conduct has already taken place yet. it cut them off from the financial institutions and it has some serious effects. Yeah. And you raise a very good point, which is that, look, they've been, the Iranians certainly have been doing this for a long time in terms of understanding how to get around U.S. sanctions, right?

And they've become relatively sophisticated. The Russians, likewise, particularly since Putin's invasion in 2022, and the relationship between the Iranians and the Russians is such that they're sharing that knowledge, right? It's like one fraudster helping another, you know, and to commit more fraud. And it is. From an investigative point of view, it's a very tough thing to do because they're constantly shifting and adjusting. We've talked on the PDB before about the sort of the Russian networks and how they evade the sanctions. And obviously, the Iranians have been engaged in the same thing. Let me take just a little bit of a turn. Talk to me about your your thoughts, how you view the blockade, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Talk to me about

your perspective on that, how effective it's been, and whether that may be the one thing that has maybe gotten to the Iranian regime, maybe getting them to the point where they're thinking we probably do need to negotiate something. Absolutely. So I think blockade is something we've never had with the Iranian regime. We always had a robust set of sanctions, some other foreign policy tools that we have deployed to degrade the Iranian regime's ability to generate revenue and procure weapon systems and boost this nuclear program.

But the blockade is very unique in a way that we've never had such a physical disruptive tool being deployed against this adversary. Now, a couple of things. So one, at the beginning, of when there were talks about the naval blockade. You know, my thoughts were the blockade is going to be somewhere in the Persian Gulf and it's going to really block off Iran's oil terminals.

What happened, the blockade line was placed outside the straight of foremost, which makes sense. But it gave Iranians some time to use their assets in the Persian Gulf freely to not have to drop the oil extraction. Because the naval block it goes in place, it doesn't allow Iranians to send oil out of the straight-of-formals

and it wouldn't allow them to bring imports through the straight-of-formos. And that's about $435 million a day in trade that is gone. With oil extraction, it took some time, but now they have dropped the oil extraction to probably somewhere between

1.2, 1.3 million barrels a day. And that is the amount they can refund domestically. Otherwise, they have probably shutting their wells and the extraction level has been dropped to a point that if they want to take it back up to four million barrels a day, it's going to probably take month, if not years. So that has caused a serious damage in the long term. But in the day-to-day economic activities, they're losing $435 million in trade. And it has accelerated the effect of sanctions. Now, and the reason that I'm saying is going to keep getting worse for them every day.

It's because during the last year or two years of the Biden administration, and then when the blockade, before the blockade was imposed, and when there was a pause in the blockade, Iranians managed to get a lot of oil out of the shred of formulas. So they had around 130 million, 160 million barrels of oil, sitting in international waters outside the blockade. That has now been dropped to somewhere close to 20 to 25 million, barrels. And that's because Chinese keeps buying some of that oil. Now the Chinese are only buying

close to like 300 to 400,000 barrels a day. So they're buying less. And their only buyers in China are the already sanctioned refiners that are buying Iranian oil. We talk about, we talk about this a lot. We talk about how much is moving through the straight, how much has gotten through what the Chinese are buying, what they're not able to do, what the Russians are doing. How accurate from your perspective in your experience, how accurate, how credible are these numbers that we're throwing out there when we talk about levels of production and, you know, what's getting moved? So the level of production are pretty accurate. The reason is what that is because we see the contracts, you know, like how much you're actually promising to buyers and the satellite

images or companies are monitoring the movement of tankers out of the soil for months, but also the tankers are getting filled, filled up at Iran's Kark Island, the main oil terminal. So those numbers are accurate. The numbers when it comes to export, import, those numbers are, we rely on Central Bank of Iran owns numbers, but these are not numbers that they would mess around with. These are numbers that we can probably take us closer to the reality. But at the end of the day, it's a dictatorship, they control the information, they own the information, we just work with what we can get out of, out of the central bank data.

And also, we're talking about China as the key partner. And there, of course, there's a significant lack of transparency there in terms of what they're doing. Last question. Are you, where, I don't want to have you, well, of course, I do want to have you speculate. Do you answer you? Are you hopeful? about where this is going. Do you think that there is the potential for a, what do you want to call it, regime change because of unrest in the country? Do you think we're going to end up with the same regime and just concessions given in order to get the straight open so, you know, the gas prices drop and people forget about it before the U.S. elections? Where are you on all of this?

From your own personal perspective? Sure. I mean, that's a million dollar question. But here's the way I'm looking at it. If you look at the economic situation in Iran, the current situation, the Iranian regime is in right now. You have a naval blockade. You don't have an ongoing conflict or war, meaning the economy is up and running. So you have a market demand that is going up. The inflation rate is going up significantly, 80%, 90% inflation rate, food inflation rate of 300%.

No oil being exported. no imports are coming through. And domestic manufacturing has been targeted during the war and it's been on the decline. So if you look at those economic numbers, it's a collapsed economy. It's an economy that is like a ticking bomb. So any minute something could trigger an uprising in Iran. But look at very quickly, Iran. this regime had to deal with an eight-year war in the 80s, Iran-Iraq War.

They've learned how to manage the economy that is dealing with a war and it's under a lot of pressure. These guys are also revolutionaries. They know how to avoid or deter a revolution. They came out of the revolution. Their thoughts, they're terrorist militias. These guys are good at avoiding a revolution. So it's going to be very challenging for the Iranians to topple this regime.

But at the same time, every year, every two years, We have uprisings in Iran that come very close to starting a political transition there. So putting all of that together and the gap that exists between the regime and its people, it's hard to believe that this regime is going to be in place for much longer, but it's probably going to take some time before the Iranians can be united in a way to actually take over the government. I think the pressure by the U.S. government right now today is working very well. I think it really has crippled the government's ability to collect taxes that it's need, revenue from oil that it needs.

It's printing a lot of real Iranian currency so it can continue to pay salaries. So it doesn't have to cut salaries. So it doesn't have to trigger uprising. But it can't print gasoline. It's going to run out of gasoline very soon. That might be a triggering factor for significant pressure domestically. And also the real is almost worthless. at this point. And if they get to the point where they can't pay the security personnel and the militia

and the besieged militia and IRGC, low level, mid-level, you know, that's when you could start to see, you know, some opportunity. But you're right, it's an enormously heavy lift to ask people who don't have the guns to go back out on the streets against a very repressive regime that just finished slaughtering thousands of citizens earlier in the year. So I do worry. It's a little bit like the Michigan candidate for Senate, Syed, was asked about, you know, do you, do you denounce the IRGC or do you know, how do you, you know, how do you respond to, you know, concerns about what the Iranian people are going through? And his point was, oh, I support democracies everywhere. I don't think the U.S. had any right to get involved. You know, what happens to the Iranian people should be left to the Iranian people. And I'm thinking, well, Yeah, that's a great, you know, say-nothing statement when you're talking about a people that have been under the regime there and have seen what they're willing to do to people when they come out in the streets and protest. Didn't mean to disappear down that rabbit hole me on. I do want to say thank you very, very much for taking time.

I hope you'll come back again because I got seven more pages of questions. I was going to throw your way, but we are out of time. We'd love to be back. Great to be with you. Excellent. Thank you very much, sir. Really appreciate it. Look forward to the next time. The Amalekia of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Well, all right, coming up next, while Iran is under growing economic pressure from abroad, the bigger question, as we just alluded to, maybe what happens inside the country as inflation,

unemployment, and public frustration continue to build. We'll be joined by Ali Reza-Jafasade. He's with the National Council of Resistance of Iran for more on that. So please, stick around. Hey, Mike Baker here. The president's Daily Brief is brought to you by Maud. Now, Maude prescribes a once or twice daily modafinil drink that can keep you energized, focused, and alert. And that all sounds extremely good, doesn't it? Look, here's the deal. Caffeine energy drinks, block what's known as adenosine, right? It's a chemical that makes you feel tired. It builds up, and when caffeine wears off, well, here comes the crash. Modafinil works differently. It engages pathways in your brain. Dopamine, no repinifrin, histamine. Erexon, to achieve energy and alertness for 10 to 12 hours. Mdafino was invented in the 70s, and since then it's been used by pilots, soldiers, astronauts, really anyone in high-stakes situations for concentration and alertness. Visit mod.com.

That's mod, MOD, mod.com for a free consultation, and you get 10% off your first order, plus free shipping with the promo code PDB. That's promo code PDB at mod.com. See their website for important safety information, and I want to thank you. thank Mod for sponsoring the PDB. Welcome back to the PDB's Situation Report. As sanctions continue to squeeze Iran from the outside, the pressure inside the country is building. Iranian officials have acknowledged serious economic problems, well, how gracious of them, including currency instability, inflation, and unemployment. The government has also moved to raise fuel prices

for the heavier users. That's a politically sensitive step in a country where previous gassing increases have helped trigger unrest. For more on this, I want to turn to a great friend of the show, Elie Reyes and Jeff Razade, Deputy Director of the Washington Office, the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Alirazan, great to see you again. Always a pleasure, Mark. Great to be on your show. Thank you. Thank you very much. You've been busy. I understand you've been traveling. Yes, I was actually, I just came back from New York, and we had a very eventful two-day major rally across from the United Nations. The first rally was on the first day of the

General Assembly, just to coincide with the beginning of it where all the world leaders were there. The message was very clear telling the world leaders that Iran is not recognized by its regime, rather by its people, that Pezegian and the regime, and the regime, do not represent the people of Iran. They represent a repressive regime that kills its own people, massacres, supports terrorism in the region, spends all the money and resources of the country on developing nuclear weapons, a missile program that undermines not only the interests of the people of Iran, but the rest of the world. And that, it shouldn't be like that. There is an alternative, and that alternative is actually the people of

Iran and the organized resistance fighting for freedom for four decades, over four decades. And it has a very clear leadership. Mrs. Rajavid, introduced a 10-point platform for the future of Iran that corroborates with all the international norms. A clear roadmap for change in Iran. There's a powerful network inside Iran. All the world needs to do is to look at Iran through the prism of its people, not the regime. Yeah, yeah. It's easier said than done since people really don't get much of a voice.

Now, it is remarkable when you think about we're in this direct conflict with Iran. And here in UN General Assembly Week, which, by the way, is the worst time to be in New York, is Musud Bosetschian, right, is the president of this country that we're in a direct conflict with. And here he comes, allowed to address the assembly. And everyone dutifully, you know, sits and listens. They also have a framed picture of Kossam Soleimani on their desk there in the general assembly and talk about someone who had a lot of blood on his hands. So it is a very bizarre dynamic.

Absolutely. It's really bizarre because, you know, United Nations, as the name says, it has to be about nations, not just regimes. It's not about united regimes or the United governments. And then yet you have consistently over the past few decades, you have the leaders of the Iranian regime coming to the UN while they have presided over massacre and killings and threatening the rest of the world.

And then they get at the podium, they start giving lessons preaching to the rest of the world about human rights, about, you know, peace and all of that. And that's why, you know, we felt it's very important to once again gather in front of the UN as Pasechka was speaking. You know, there were thousands of Iranian resistance supporters right across the UN chanting, you know, down with terrorist regime of ruling Iran. and calling change, change, change, regime change in Iran by the people of Iran. So they were basically- Do any of those images, Ali Raisin, do any of those images get into Iran? Do the people of Iran, they had the opportunity to see what's happening?

As an example, I mean, I know they can't turn on the TV and watch it, but still. Right. Yes. You know, what we did on both days, we had live feed into Iran. There's a satellite TV, it's called Iran and TV. TV and they beam into Iran extensively and people can watch it. Of course, you know, it's banned, but a lot of people watch band programs. But also it was available live on social media.

A lot of media covered it, like Fox had several reports about this, CBS News added. And, you know, some of those gets into Iran. And so people find ways of getting that message that, you know, positions. is not what he says, that he was rejected by the people, that people are talking about the alternative, about the future, not about the current theocracy or the past dictatorship of the Shah. And that message was very delivered very clearly, but it's not enough because, you know, so long as the Mullahs are in power, they would try to use everything available to them. That's why our effort has to be doubled and everything, you know, we do and social,

media and other places, we need to spread the word. Yeah. I want to talk to you about the economic conditions inside the country, but, you know, I just, as we wrap up the kind of the look at what happened to the UN, I, you know, my personal feeling is that the UN is a fairly feckless organization. It takes up a lot of space and rarely actually, at the end of the day, accomplishes a lot of meaningful activity. You do need people talking.

You need diplomatic channels, all of that. I get it. But the UN as an organization has always just struck me as this enormously immovable, feckless organization. It would have a little more credibility, I think, if all those same people who self-righteously stormed out when Netanyahu was about to speak, would have done the same thing with Pazekin, you know, in protest of the regime's slaughter of thousands and thousands of their own citizens earlier in the year. Well, interestingly, Mark, you know, the UN has, you know, different organizations, bodies. They have fact-finding missions. Some of their own reports, as recent as just this past month, plus so many other reports came

out by the United Nations saying that the Iran regime was involved in the massacre of thousands upon thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Not only that, they said it amounted to crimes against humanity and even genocide. They also talked about the massacre this year in 20, 2006 in January. All of that, yet, you know, when it comes to those reports that are there, but when it comes to the whole organization or the member states, they just go their own way. That's why I think it's so important to get the voices out, to have the voices of the people to be heard, because if you just leave it to those countries or the institutions,

he will not go anywhere. And that's why I think those two days were extremely important to get the message out. And we got very good coverage, but it's never enough. Did you get any sense that there was any feedback? Have you heard any feedback? I don't necessarily mean direct feedback, but have there been any statements from the Iranian regime over the two days? that you were there? Well, you know, Pazegovina himself addressed the UN saying that Iran is being attacked

by terrorists. And of course, you know, they're referring to those who are fighting the Iranian regime over the years. And every time they attack it, the Iranian media attacked us saying that, you know, the terrorists and agents of other countries were demonstrating across from the UN. are not agents of other countries or terrorists. I remember the very first rally that I participated across from the UN. I was much younger at the time. That was 46 years ago in 1981, that we had the first rally in front of the UN when the killings had started. And every single year,

all throughout this period, with the exception of one year because of COVID, the people gathered in front of the UN, you know, our movement, NCRI was involved. in galvanizing everybody, just keeping the voice, you know, repeating about the killings in Iran, but also the desire of the people for change. When you have that level of continuity over different administrations, different circumstances, continuing, you know, protesting and calling for change and democracy, this is the true voice of the people of Iran, not those ruthless molas. and that the real terrorists are those who are ruling the country.

Yeah, no, it is. It is that the lack of self-awareness and of irony of the Iranian regime complaining, calling their resistance terrorists is really, you know, it just, again, another indication of they are living in an alternative world. Al-Aresa, I want to pivot over to the economy and what it's doing internally inside the country, and it's impact on the population, but, but first, we do have to take a quick break. So, stick around. We'll be back with more from Ali Reza-Jafzadeh and the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Stick with us. Welcome back to the PDB situation report. Joining us once again is Ali Reza. I'm Jefferzade. He's the deputy director of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Halle-Razate, let's talk about the economic conditions inside Iran. We've touched all.

it before in the past. But now, since we last talked, obviously the blockade of Iranian ports has been in place for quite some time. We're getting all sorts of reports on, you know, the impact it's having, the inflation rate, food prices increasing, you know, shortages of fuel. But sometimes you do wonder whether the numbers we're hearing or the things we're hearing out in the just how accurate they are. So give us your impressions of what's happening inside the country from an economic perspective and how it's really impacting the people. Well, you know, economy has been one of the most important elements that has really galvanized the protest in Iran since at least the past decade. And it's astonishing that a country so rich,

so powerful, so resourceful, like Iran, you have 80% of the Iranian population living below the poverty line. It's not that we don't have money and resources. We have the second largest oil and gas reserves combined in the world. Any resource you can think of, we have it in Iran. But because of the corruption, because of the mismanagement, because the money is the priorities of the regime

is not its own people. The priority is the IRA. and, you know, sponsoring their nuclear program, their missile program. The regime has over 38 missile cities they built. I mean, think about it. Cities underground tunnels, what they call missile cities. You know how much that costs? That drains the entire, really wealth of a nation.

The whole nuclear weapons program of Iran has called some $2 trillion. everything else that are... I mean, can I interrupt you? There are $2 trillion over the years for their nuclear program. Yes. And you know, just think about that number. The whole Iran-Iraq war that lasted for eight years, that we had so many cities destroyed and all of that, the official estimate was that it cost around $1 trillion.

And then this whole nuclear program has caused the... nation, $2 trillion. So that's a very, very, this is more than all the oil revenue that Iran has generated since the Mullahs came to power. I added all of the numbers based on OPEC and all of that. The value of the oil revenue all of the time was about $1.5 trillion. So that's why the country is going, you know, squeeze. And that's why the people feel like, you know, they're under tremendous pressure.

And, you know, so it's not just about the sanctions or anything like that, even before the sanctions. Or when there were sanctions relief, the people's condition didn't improve. So that's why I think the – and that has become the foundation for the protests in Iran. And things are getting worse. Give you one example. one of the indications is the value of the Iranian currency. You know, the Iranian currency is real, and 10 real is equivalent of one to one. And I remember when the mullahs came to power at the time, you could buy, you know,

it would, you would only need seven to mon to buy one dollar. Now it's over $200,000 for $1. I mean, $200,000, actually went as high as $200,000. 30,000. So that's really, that's really, that's really over two million real. Right. Yes. And over two and two million dollars. So that's the clear indication how bad the situation is. Now the toll is on the population. And that's why you had all these protests shaping up the foundation of that was always a, you know, economic adding to it was the political freedoms. And And that's why we are facing a very explosive society.

Right now, the regime is so, you know, paranoid about the prospect of the revival of the uprisings. That explains why they have been stepping up execution of political prisoners in Iran. They started in March executing nine political prisoners belonging to the MECA, the main opposition that exposed the nuclear size and acts as in the United States. for change in Iran, but they also expanded it to the rest of the young people who were pursuing the same strategy as the MEK. The MEK strategy is to confront the revolutionary guards, to push back against them, to fight them

in order to win. And the younger generations are picking up that strategy. So many others were executed in the past few weeks, and these were young people who were either confronting the Revolutionary Guards or trying to disarmes. armed the revolution in guards. There are over 100 political prisoners who are on death row right now. That's a clear indication of the vulnerability of the regime and how paranoid they are. Well, yes.

We've talked about, I've liked to raise that whole issue. We've talked about it on the PDB in the past is, you know, while everybody's focused on the Strait of Homoos and, you know, what are the gas prices doing. that cover, the regime has accelerated the arrests, the detentions, the executions, really, of anyone they consider a threat. I mean, you can kind of throw out a net that broad and say it's really anyone that they view it as a threat. The prices, talk to me, what is the, let me ask you this, what is the average monthly wage

for an Iranian? Well, it fluctuards. I don't know the exact numbers right now. I can give you their official numbers and then there are others. But, you know, whatever it is, it's way below the actual, you know, the cost of the living. Sometimes families run out of the money, even the second week of the month. And whatever the salaries are, especially for workers, they're not being paid for it. You know, for instance, some companies there are like six months, eight months, ten months behind.

They haven't paid their workers for 10 months. And when you are like paycheck to paycheck, and you don't even survive with the paycheck, imagine how vulnerable the population would be, you know, when this economic situation is really deteriorating, impacting the whole population. And, you know, for instance, one of the companies, I give you one example, that was making steel mills. And it was a steel mill company making steel rods. And it went off the production. It's been for several months.

It had over a thousand workers. So, you know, they're not being paid. So what do the workers do? They come to street and protests. You see a lot of protests are now shaping up by people who were laid off or lost. their job, who haven't been paid, retirees who are not being paid. There's a lot of, you know, sectors of the population that now, even in the middle of an uncertain war situation, they're protesting.

But now when you say protesting, are they grumbling, meaning they're sitting and they're complaining or they're complaining to maybe relatives they have outside of the country or whatever, but they're not taking to the street or do you mean they're actually taking to the streets? They are. They are taking to the streets, but they're doing to the streets. but their demands are, you know, they're peacefully coming to the streets with their banners, with their posters saying that, you know, we need our wages to be paid.

You know, our condition, you know, specifically demanding the pay for, you know, whatever company it is. And, you know, it's not limited to a certain city or a certain company and it's expanding. That's an indication of the deteriorating economic situation. And what the regime is afraid of is that what if, and it's not what if, when this whole thing is going to turn into a major uprising, the way we saw, for instance, in January of this year that people didn't just settle for that. They started, you know, getting confrontational with a revolutionary guard, chanting slogans day and night against the regime, not just about their wages, not about economic demands. quickly all of that could turn into major political demands, which is regime change by- It could.

Let me interrupt you there, highly-refer, because I think it's, I agree with you, I mean, in theory, right? Yes, all of this pressure building and building and building, right? We saw it earlier in the year, of course, we also saw the regime's response. And in that time, you know, the situation has gotten worse. So in theory, you'd say, okay, fine, the people are going to at a certain point, just lose it and get back out on the streets, regardless of what they know will likely be the response from the regime. Are you worried that that could be off in the future? And yet it seems like the closer we get, and I know President Trump has said repeatedly, he doesn't care about the midterm elections.

And that's fine. You know, you can say that all you want. voters care about what the price of gas is, right? And so, and there's a lot of, you know, politicians who are concerned. And President Trump understands if he loses in the midterm elections, this whole dynamic changes, right? It's going to be facing two years of impeachment attempts by the Democrats. It's going to be much harder for him to engage in any sort of unilateral military activity. And so, you know, it's fine to say that you don't care about elections. I think that's it. I think the reality is different. So are you worried because there's all this talk now about, oh, we've restarted negotiations. And it feels like there's a real desire,

right, on the part of the White House to get this over with. And the Iranians are talking about, fine, we could open the Strait of Hormuz. And it would only take us a few days to do that. But we're going to need you to lift the blockade on Neurani imports, provide access to some frozen assets, you know. And so suddenly we might find ourselves in, and then, of course, they're going to crow at the end of that and say, look, we defeated America. Well, exactly, as you said, you know, the Mullers are masters of portraying their weakness as their strength. They're going around boasting that, you know, look where we haven't been overthrown. Therefore, you know, we managed to resist the United States, to resist the attacks and all of that. But one thing that they cannot hide and they cannot boast about is their internal situation.

That's why I keep coming back to this point. The Achilles Hill of the Iranian regime is inside Iran. You know, they can talk, you know, that we fire missiles and, you know, attacking ships, but none of that is going to improve the economy. None of that is going to improve the condition of the people. None of that is going to make the people of Iran friends of the mullahs. That's why no matter what they do, the internal situation is increasingly getting worse. And I think that's what needs to be understood,

whether it's the White House or the capitals in Europe. Europe, that this regime is vulnerable internally. If anyone wants to have leverage against the Iran regime, the leverage is inside Iran and the vulnerability of the regime, and on the other side, those who are trying to overthrow this regime. That's why the regime constantly demands foreign capitals. Don't get close to the organized opposition. Don't even get close to the MEK.

That's actually MEK. It was designated decades ago. They had to fight for 15 years to get off the list. And, you know, all of the pressure that is built on the organized opposition as a result of the regime using that and, you know, leveraging and all of that. You need to reverse that. You need to show the Iran regime that the outside world are not going to be intimidated by their terrorism, by their promises, all of that, because they have violated all of that. because they have violated all of that in the past. So if they want to sit down and negotiate, that's fine.

What are the terms of the negotiations? What is it that they're holding the regime accountable? That's why I think it's so important for the outside world, especially the White House, to realize the one leverage that needs to be taken into consideration is the people of Iran, the vulnerability of the regime inside Iran, and the desire, strong desire of the people to bring about change. You know, we have never asked for arms or boots on the ground or money, none of that. Well, let me ask you this.

So I would assume you're in favor of maintaining the blockade and maintaining the sanctions and the economic pressure as opposed to what appears to be this potential effort or this. It's always sort of a false start. We've seen a lot of false starts with negotiations over the. many months. But so it sounds like what you're saying is just give the economic pressure time and you may then get that result that you're talking about in terms of the civil unrest. Well, you know, certainly the building pressure on the regime is important, economic pressure because at the end of the day is the pressure on the IRGC limiting their resources.

But that's not enough because at the same time, you need to recognize the right of the people of Iran to overthrow this regime. You need to recognize the right of those. What does that mean? Ali Brayson, what does that mean when you say you need to recognize the right of the people? Because I think it's a lot of nations have said, you know, we'd love to see, you know, the people have a better opportunity, you know, be self-determining and all that. But when you say it, what does that mean? Well, it means that, you know, when the regime starts executing the very same freedom fighters who are fighting and confronting the regime in regards, you need to speak up, you

need to have outrage, you need to hold the regime accountable, you need to tell the Iran regime that even if for every single freedom fighter that they have executed since at least this March of this year, there is a price that Tehran has to pay. That's how you defend those who are fighting the regime. You stand on their side. You hold the regime accountable for hurting them, for imprisoning them, for executing them. That hasn't been there. You know, how many times you have seen condemnation of the execution of political prisoners in Iran or the other means of repression,

executing the rest of the population, there has to be a lot of pressure built on it. Where is the accountability? The UN report came out saying that Iran was involved in the... suppression and the massacre of people in January, what price did Tehran pay for it? Nothing. You know, what price they're paying for their terrorism? Nothing. That's why I think it's important.

Accountability is the other side of, you know, recognizing the right of the people to resist and stand up against the Iran regime. Let me ask you one last question, being mindful of time. Alaray, it's a bit of a pivot, I admit. but I'm very keen to get your perspective. The Houthis and their escalation, they kind of kicked off this renewed aggression offensive against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

What's your perspective on the relationship between the Iranians and the Houthis? Well, the Houthis are really the product of the years of cultivation and work and development of the Iranian regime. The whole movement, the way it is now, the organization, the whole funding, the structure, were basically created by the Iranian regime

when they had the founders in Iran like almost 30 years ago training them and then eventually funding them, helping creating their units, whether it was like naval units. We put out a detailed press conference right here in Washington about five years ago about how the regime had created naval, you know, Guzforz naval units by the Houthis that they can operate on their own and in the region, in the, in the waterways, and all of those things. We predicted all of that. We showed like where they were being trained in Iran, it is a specific. specific location they were being trained, what kind of training they were going through,

all of that. And now it's not a surprise for us. So if you want to really curb the activities of the Houthis, you have to curb the Iranian regime. And that's why I think it all boils down that if you want to see peace in the region, we have to see a change by the people of Iran in Iran. There's no other shortcut. There's no other way.

the end of the day, that's what it boils down to. Yeah. No, I couldn't agree with you more. I think you want a short, mid, long-term stability in the region. You want a better opportunity for the Iranian people. You want a more prosperous region. That all means this regime at some point has to disappear because otherwise they're not going to change their stripes, I would argue.

And listen, Ali Reza, I wish we had more. more time, but we don't. So that means you got to come back next time. Absolutely. I'm always very happy to be on your show. Really appreciate the opportunity. Thank you so much. That's great. Listen, have a very good weekend. I'll raise it. We'll talk soon. Sure. Thank you. Take care. Well, that is all the time we have for this week's PDB situation report. I know, I know. Somewhere off there in the distance, you can hear a sad drumbone. If you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. You know what happens every week.

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