The Ricochet Podcast - Closing Arguments

Episode Date: October 30, 2020

This is it, folks — the last Ricochet Podcast prior to the 2020 election. What a long strange trip it’s been (no, that is not the closing song, but we thought about it). To wrap this election season up, we give you another in a series of spirited debates between The Founders® –that’s Peter Robinson and Rob Long for you newbies– in which James Lileks once again tries to be moderator/peacemaker. We’... Source

Our listeners will love it. More sweet lullabies that they can sing to themselves. I have a dream. This nation will rise up. Live out the true meaning of its creed. We hold these truths to be self-evident. That all men are created equal. We didn't want Twitter to be a distributor for hack materials.

We found that the Nearpost, because it showed screenshots of the direct materials, it was unclear how those were attained, that it fell under this policy. I'm the president and you're fake news. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. It's the Weirdness Shade Podcast with Peter Robinson and Rob Long. I'm James Lylex. Did you know there's an election coming up? We're going to talk to Byron York and Luke Thompson, and let's have ourselves a podcast.

I can hear you! Welcome, everybody. It's the Wicked Shave Podcast, number 519. I'm James Lylex here in Minneapolis, Rob Long in New York, Peter Robinson in sunny California. And we're about to commit something that will be absolutely meaningless, useless, and of no merit to anybody in just a few days, because we're going to talk about the election. We're going to say things that, well, we hope that Blue Yeti, with his editorial skill, can piece together what we say and find something that just predicted exactly what was going to happen, proving us to be the sages and seers what we say and find something that's just predicted exactly what was going to happen,

proving us to be the sages and seers that we are. Gentlemen, welcome. I want to ask you one thing, though, before we get to this. I know that a lot of people are always saying, eh, you live in that Fox News bubble. I don't. I listen to one show on Fox, and that's about it. And I think the people who say that. I watch Tucker.

It's interesting, and I think that's about the best that they have to offer. I find it... I know you're in the middle of a rant, but I'd be the best of any way. We should just pause for a minute to mention that he busted up above 5 million viewers. His ratings are remarkable. That's a watershed mark. Nobody's even close. More than 20% higher than their highest, than the previous high water.

And almost 20% higher than his previous high. Yes, that's what I mean. So the people who say, yeah, you're just living in a Fox bubble, themselves are often mistaking CNN and MSNBC for absolutely straight down the line, fair Olympian perspective news and are in a bubble of their own. But the thing is, is that if you're living in that Fox bubble, you're aware of the whole laptop story. And you're probably a little bit more up to speed on it than anybody else who has waved it off as just simply Russian disinformation. I've never seen an example of the non-contiguous information streams like this. I never have. That's a good point.

For years now, because people do live and marinate and occupy different tunnels, different silos, a lot of the stuff they're worried about, we don't know about. A lot of the stuff we think about, they don't. But I've seen nothing like this. And when it comes down to Twitter and Facebook

looking at this story and saying, we will make the judgment when it comes down to Twitter saying, you have to remove that tweet. You have to agree that two plus two is sometimes five before we will let you on back on the platform. We have a new situation. We have, we have a new landscape. And I'm not just saying that because Tucker saying that I'm saying that because that's how it strikes me too. In the media. I look at my own paper and I keep scrolling for Bobulinski. Nope, nope, search, nope. And it's astonishing. Right before the election, this story breaks and the media has decided it ain't a story. Couldn't agree more. Last week, we spent a certain amount of time saying well

wait a minute this let's not get carried away this election is just an election it's the usual back and forth between conservatives liberals republicans democrats and yet there are aspects of it that are genuine genuinely different and as you just noted none is striking, more disconcerting to me than what's taking place in the media. What did you call it? Discontiguous. Noncontiguous information streams. Noncontiguous information streams. I've been using that melodious phrase for years.

For some reason, it hasn't caught on, and I just can't figure out why. Yeah. I was shocked. Some portion of our listeners will remember this. I was shocked by the O.J. Simpson verdict. Everybody in America had looked at the same set of information, the same set of facts, and come to two totally different conclusions. That alone was shocking to me.

What's happening now is, no, no, no. You can't say, well, let's just see how the new york times is treating this story there must be another side or let's see let's contrast the la times with you name it with the washington nope they're just pretending it isn't happening it is just astounding just astounding well here we are the election is on us and uh the polls are what they are we're going to be talking for a little bit, a little bit about the polls specifically. But I should take the temperature of the room. Me here in Minnesota. I was going to say, you just tell us what's happening in Minnesota today, James.

Well, Biden is here and Biden is going to be here and Trump's going to be here, which is odd. If Minnesota was acting like Minnesota usually does, you would not think that Joe Biden would come out of the silo at this point and make an appearance. And if Trump is showing up, that either said that either thinks the campaign has no idea what's going on and thinks that they can get Minnesota or they know something that says it's time for a little goose. It's time for a little spark. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican for president. Well, that was in 1858, I think. 1972. Richard Nixon's re-election date.

1972. I don't know what proportion of the electorate is still alive in Minnesota, but there can't be more than a third. They're frozen. They're probably still going to vote, by the way. The state of Minnesota, the city of Minneapolis-St. Paul is not going to go red. It just ain't going to happen. But outstate is a different situation. And that's, I mean, I hate to be, again, to use the 1984 analogy, looking out the window with Julia and saying,

the proles, that will be our hope. I don't regard them as proles out there. They live an entirely different life than people in the information management systems at minneapolis do so different concerns different culture different go on you well you are a prole really it by upbringing by that definition you grew up in which dakota south north dakota you grew up in far Fargo in a family that owned an oil and energy and gas station operation is about as blue collar and real to the world as you can get. After all these years as a journalist, after all these years living in the cities, do you feel what do you feel like? Are you do you still think of yourself as an outsider? As an outsider? No. I mean,

I've lived here too long. I've been in the media for too long to even pretend that I'm some sort of horny-handed man of the people who rose from the soil of North Dakota and still maintains that. No, of course. I mean, I work with my fingertips. I drive to a big glistening downtown skyscraper. I'm very much of that class. But no, my sympathies and my understanding and my roots are still back there. And it's, I mean, it's not like, I don't regard that tribe as some strange anthropological experiment where you go there and you you have your gas station sandwiches and you you see how they i mean it's that's normal life to me outstate is normal to me and so i i i mean i i wouldn't be surprised in the least if they've had a poll shift since the

old radical days and have decided that trump's their man so we'll see what Luke has to say about it. The polls are all over the place. That's something else I don't recall. But they're not really. They're not really. Well, no, they are really. They are. Where?

Where are they? I'm about to tell you. The national polls are fairly tightly clustered. But even there, you've got Rasmussen showing Trump. Rasmussen had, this is three and a half weeks ago biden had a lead by 12 then he had a lead by eight then he had a lead by three and rasmussen's most recent national poll of two days ago showed biden up two rasmussen may be totally mistaken but it's one of the half dozen most reported upon national polls. The average poll,

the average of polls, that's not my point. The national average has been solid. It doesn't matter the dispersion. You'll always have an average. What I'm talking about is the dispersion. That's what I mean when I say the polls. No, not one poll. There are plenty of...

Oh, come on, Peter. So, R.C., you can't fight here. This is a podcast. I've been quiet the whole time. So RCP average, that's meaningless to you. So the 5.8 average is meaningless to you. They have been solid and steady. I'm knocking on the door of the Yale man.

Hold on. I'm done. I've said one sentence this entire podcast, and that's the only sentence I've said. And you missed my point. I said the polls are all over the place, meaning there's a wide dispersion. If you go to an average, the average is what it is. It's the average. What I don't recall from four years ago is a dispersion like this, where even on the national poll, you've got somebody as much of an outlier as Rasmussen is.

But the much more important polls are state by state. And there the dispersions are dramatic. Susquehanna in certain states, Trafalgar in certain states. Well, that's the way states go rob state by state by state poll in florida yes and the cross tabs which they then pulled down off of their site because people started to look at them last week had trump winning young people 18 to 35 by 16 points they were embarrassed by that so they pulled it down. Look, this is silly.

In a week, we'll know. In a week, I'll be a moron. In a week, I promise I will start this podcast Have you heard me? You are assuming that I'm defending the pro-drug polls. That's my question. I'm simply trying to make James's point that this is different from four years ago.

I don't recall dispersion. I don't recall polling being as out of sync as this. If you look at the average, the average has been rock solid. There hasn't been the variability in the average this year that there was four years ago. By this point, four years ago, Trump had caught Hillary Clinton a couple of times. He's never caught Biden in the national average. Still, you've got Rasmussen with Trump in the lead. Everybody else says, no, no, no, Biden's up by at least six, seven, eight. That's new, as best I can recall from

four years ago. And then the state polls, which are really the polls that matter right now, but are difficult. They're more expensive. It's harder to poll state operations. It's just difficult. And you've got polling operations, a number of polling operations, and they're just coming down in different places. All I'm saying, I'm not going to say Trump is going to win. All I'm saying is this strikes me as new. The pollsters seem to be attempting different techniques, and they're getting different answers. And for the past three weeks, Trump's support has been saying it's just like 2016. Look, it's... I haven't been saying that. What can I say? What can I say? I'm not... Prepare an arc. Prepare an arc.

That's my... That's my... That's my... I have not been saying it's just like 2016. I've been struck again and again by how different it is. All right. James, establish peace. Well, comedy reigns.

Of course, you two are old friends, and so we know this is just a habitual dust-up that you manufacture for ratings. The question to Rob is this. And then maybe I'll find a question for Peter in this as well. I mean, we can argue about the polls. Right, we can do that in a lobby room soon. Yeah, I don't know. But what if you said, if I'm wrong, I'm a moron,

which is ridiculous because you're not a moron. You're an exceedingly smart man. If you are wrong, what will you draw from that? And if you're right, here's what we'll do. Here's what I promise to do. If I am right, I promise not to shout at everyone who thinks that the polls are somehow going to turn around. Well, you were wrong every time they make a political statement, which is what really has happened to me for four years, right? Just give me 30 seconds of sour grapes here, right, if I'm right. I promise not to gloat and not to do that, because, of course, there's a difference between what the polls are saying and then the likelihood, the probability is a totally different number um if i am wrong uh i will believe that the trump campaign has managed to do in uh uh you know maybe in a as far as gumped its way into this or they are absolute geniuses they

have managed to do something that no one in american politics has ever been able to do, and that is to win a razor-thin majority twice in a row. That will be an astonishing feat of politics that I think our friends on the left will turn into ashes or dust or something. I myself will be absolutely, totally stunned because when you flip a coin, it doesn't land on its side twice in a row. Maybe it will this time. Maybe it will. What I'm more interested in, because I think it's the more likely outcome, is that if Trump loses, what are conservatives and Republicans going to do with themselves? How are they going to figure this out? And the question is, are they going to go through a rigorous bloodletting and purging, which is what they should do, which is what happens when

parties lose big, right? Dukakis lost big in 88. In 92, they came back pretty strong. So that's a question that you have to ask. Our problem now is that we do live in a weird little bubble where we only read the news and listen to the news that tells us what we want to hear. And so we have no idea that being a president of the United States is a hard job in which you need to gather support every day. The country doesn't elect you, even though it says they do. They don't elect you to do the things that you said you're going to do. They elect you to start persuading them. When you're elected for president, they give you the microphone. That's what they do. And that is something that Obama had absolute, like a brain lock on,

this simple politics, something that Trump does not understand. That is new this time around as well from four years ago, in my judgment. I'd have a difficult time this moment coming up with facts and figures to support it, but maybe I'll get around to that. Trump, we've said over and over again during the last four years, when is this guy going to try to persuade people in the middle? When is he going to try to expand his coalition? That's been Ra's refrain, and I have been singing that chorus right behind him. Both campaigns, this time around, seem to have decided that the name of the game is not to appeal to the middle, but to pump up your base. That's why Trump went to Nevada the other day to drive up the voting rate among rural Nevadans. It's the same, similar dynamic to Minnesota.

You've got Las Vegas, but then you've got a big state outside Las Vegas. It's the same similar dynamic to Minnesota. You've got Las Vegas, but then you've got a big state outside Las Vegas. That's why he's going to Minnesota today, again, to try to drive up the voting participation of his base. But the Biden campaign has done something very similar. I said a couple of times during the Biden campaign, and I think you guys even agreed with me during the primaries, that Joe Biden had an opportunity to pull a Bill Clinton and move his party back to the center a notch or two. Joe Biden could have said to Bernie Sanders, look, I don't know what Democratic Party you're from, but I'm from the party of FDR and John Kennedy. It's a patriotic party. It's a pro-growth party. It's the party of the working man, and it's not socialist. Instead, Biden wins

the nomination, and he puts Bernie Sanders on the group that devises the Democratic Party platform, and he's running on a very hard left platform. It looks as though both campaigns have made the decision not to try to move. Now, Biden, because he is Biden, he keeps talking about Scranton, he comes across as less, what, less hot, less inflammatory. I suppose you could argue that Biden is more reassuring to the middle or to undecided voters. But on the ground and in the rhetoric and in the platforms, both parties seem to be attempting to drive up their bases rather than appeal to the middle. And that strikes me as new. And I'm with, if I understood Rob correctly to say that's not really presidential, it's not

healthy for the country. I agree with that entirely. It's not smart politics, really. We shall see. We shall see. shall we shall see we shall see we shall see well it'll work for one side or the other of course i mean rob makes a good point about you handing the president the microphone you vote for him to do these things but there's a large contingent of people i'm convinced that vote for trump simply because he will not do these other things that he will not do the green new deal he will not open the borders he will not get rid of the insurance industry he will he will not do the things that the others do. We may not like him. We may not like the things that he says he's going to do and he doesn't, but he's not going to do those things that we hate. And some

of you hate shopping for Thanksgiving, which is right around the corner. I will not do it. Right around the corner. Thanksgiving. That means what? That means people coming over in the approved number of groups. That means everyone socially distances at the table, of course, because plague years and all that. So maybe you don't want to go to the store at all. Well, you know, one of the things to be thankful for this year, it's ButcherBox. Every month, ButcherBox ships a curated selection of high-quality meat right to my home. Each box has 9 to 11 pounds of meat. 9 to 11 pounds.

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That's an entire turkey for free in your first box. Details, butcherbox.com slash ricochet. That's butcherbox.com slash ricochet. Free turkey. Our thanks to ButcherBox for sponsoring this, the Ricochet Podcast. Well, enough of this calamitous palaver. Let's have a voice of calm, civility, and gentility. Byron York joins us. He's the chief Washington correspondent for the Washington Examiner, and his new book is Obsession, Inside the Washington Establishment's Never-Ending

War on Trump. You should, of course, be listening to the Byron York Show, his podcast right here in the Ricochet Audio Network, and you subscribe to his daily network or his daily newsletter, don't you? That's Byron York's daily memo. That's not enough. You can follow him on Twitter as well. It's a lot of stuff to write and say, but Byron, right now you are in Pennsylvania, which is the center of the universe politically. How has it looked down there? I heard the other day that Nate Silver said, yeah, you know what? Trump could take it and it wouldn't hurt Biden in the end. How does it look? Well, I'll speak only for Pennsylvania, not nationally, but it does look like Trump could take it.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls has Biden ahead here. It's been as little as about three and a half points and as much as a little more than five points here. And what I see when I go to pro-Trump events, and by the way, there is a whole sort of unseen network of Trump support here, putting on big events like a 2,000 car rally that get zero coverage in the national media or the local media. But what I see here is, and I'm in western Pennsylvania right now, I'm in Pittsburgh at the moment, is not only solid support for Trump from 2016, but the addition of support from 2016. Now, presuming that Trump has lost some of his 2016 voters in the suburbs of Pennsylvania, especially further to the east, and presuming that Joe Biden gets a better turnout

in some of the key Democratic areas of Pennsylvania, better than Hillary Clinton, probably better than Clinton and worse than Obama. Put that all together, and it's very, very close, and I think there's a real possibility. Remember, Trump won Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes last time. The real possibility, he wins again. By some minute margin as last time. Well, yeah probably probably close hey byron so here way way back during the 80s when i was in the white house as a speechwriter there was a famous story true ish it was true at

the time i say ish because i'm not sure i'll remember it exactly but in any event there was a situation where davidder, long dead now, but then the dean of political journalists, you'll remember that name, was on a bus with some younger journalists. And the polls were saying one thing, but the enthusiasm on the ground, as I recall, this was during the New Hampshire primary season, the enthusiasm on the ground was suggesting something different. And one of the young journalists said to David Broder, how do you reconcile that? And Broder replied very simply, believe your eyes. Bob and I were just in a tussle about the polls are rock solid, the national average in Real Clear Politics as distinct from four years ago where Trump had caught Hillary a couple of times by Election Day. Here, Biden's lead has not, well, it has shrunk and expanded, but he's always been in the lead. So the polls really and truly seem to be insisting on one thing.

And yet you see something. How do you reconcile that difference well i here again i would i would narrow it down to pennsylvania right i've been looking right now but it's it i i didn't pick pennsylvania at random it's an incredibly important state and it could be the one um but you know there was a there was an article first of all uh when i got here i got here a week ago friday and on saturday this is you're doing saturation reporting this isn't just some little dip in and out trip no it's not a parachute you know i well the thing about covering the race this time is um i haven't been doing nearly as much traveling as i did in

previous campaigns right uh this campaign one it's really odd and two um uh i had other stuff to do i i had a book congratulations and to promote and i had a event with Ricochet, by the way. Thank you. Thank you. With Molly Hemingway is terrific. And but anyway, there was book stuff to do. So then I think, well, what should I do? I don't really want to go chase the candidate here. And it's harder to do in a general election because the Republican Canada has Air Force One and I don't. But I think I'll just go to Pennsylvania and just hang out and see what's there. And so I go. I arrive here on Friday evening. And on Saturday in Washington, Pennsylvania, which is about 30, 40 minutes from Pittsburgh,

there's going to be this car rally. And I've been told about it by a local Republican official, but it doesn't have anything to do with the Republican Party or the Trump campaign. The rally started in a place called St. Clairsville, Ohio, which is only about 30 minutes from Washington, Pennsylvania. It goes from Clairsville, Ohio to Wheeling, West Virginia, which is only about 30 minutes from Washington, Pennsylvania. It goes from Claresville, Ohio to Wheeling, West Virginia, which is only about 15 minutes away. And then from Wheeling, West Virginia up to Washington, Pennsylvania.

So it was gaining cars all the time. So by the time it got to Washington, Pennsylvania, we were in a large, big-box parking lot waiting for the cars to arrive from Wheeling. They were going to parade through the lot, and then all the cars waiting in Washington would join in. And then they'd all go down Highway 70 for a while. And, I mean, there were close to 2,000 cars. It took forever for all of these cars to go through. And then there's this whole football field and more of cars waiting to join. And I'm talking to the people there. And there's zero news coverage. I mean, none. I think I'm the only reporter there. So I write about this. And a number of people say, wow, that's news to me.

There are these big events going on, and they're done by people who are big Trump fans. They're done mostly on Facebook. I wrote about that today. They use Facebook to organize. It's an incredibly valuable tool for them to organize. At the same time, they're chafing against Facebook's censorship when they want to include an article about Hunter Biden or the whistleblower in the Trump impeachment. But anyway, there's this big, big thing going on. So I think that was the value of not just going from rally to rally, from presidential rally to presidential rally, but just to come up to Pennsylvania and just hang out for a while. So you're in the believe your eyes camp. Yes.

I've always done a combination of polls and just observation. And the big question that I have right now is, one, how many more Trump voters are there going to be this time than there were last time? And I also, I did a feature in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, about an hour from here, known as the birthplace home of Arnold Palmer, where a woman set up something called the Trump House. She's a well-to-do landlord, owns a lot of rental properties around. And one of the small farmhouse she had that was very close to a road, she decided to turn it into a Trump Center. Again, all on her own, no campaign. She paints it in the style of a giant American flag. And she purchases Trump stuff, flags and shirts and hats and lanyards and huggies and all sorts of stuff and gives it away,

all paid for by her. And the other thing she does is she gets people to register to vote. She keeps the documents, the forms there. She doesn't mail them for people, but she gives them the form. She helps them fill it then uh and then hopefully they go mail them and she's you know she's registered a lot of people to vote but byron surely you know that latrobe is the home of rolling rock beer with its it is the home of rolling rock beer and if we're doing this it's also the home of mr rogers that's right that's right there that's probably the end of my Latrobe knowledge. Mysterious number 30. Go ahead. But, so the question for me is,

and everybody I talk to insists that there are shy Trump voters out there. There are people- They're too shy on your count. They know that are going to vote for Trump, but won't tell anybody. And by anybody, I don't mean just pollsters. I mean their next-door neighbor. A woman told me that the last time around,

she did not know that her neighbor supported Trump, her next-door neighbor supported Trump, until election night of 2016. So they absolutely insist that there are shy Trump voters out there, and I don't doubt that there are. The question is how many. But look, I think that I would also recommend that you go to an article in the New York Times, and I don't know the guy's name, but he's like a deputy assistant editor. He's clearly not a high-ranking reporter, but he's from the Pennsylvania area, further in eastern Pennsylvania. And he basically wrote a story that said the polls show

that Joe Biden is going to win Pennsylvania. Why does the situation look so different on the ground? And that's, you know, he grew up in that area. So he knows a lot about the area. I did not. But I've been up here a week and I have the same sort of feeling. Hey, Byron, it's Rob Long long thanks for joining us can i ask you i just a little just a little bit of uh nuts and bolts about pennsylvania um barack obama won pennsylvania in 2012 by about 300,000 400,000 votes and the map of pennsylvania in 2012 looks just like it's always looked for people like like a little dark blue down by Philadelphia and blue up there by Pittsburgh. And a little bit of blue, which is technically in the north, which is sort of New York City kind of, you know, you know what I mean?

And the rest of it red, right? The old saw about, except for the middle, right? The industrial middle. So the old saw about Pennsylvania was it's Philadelphia in the south, Pittsburgh in the north, and Alabama in the middle. No offense to our Alabamans on the podcast. That would be me. Yeah, it would be you. Last time in Alabama, Alabama invaded Pennsylvania didn't go so well. It's a Gettysburg reference.

I don't know if for the Yankees, I don't know if they get that. So is it, what is, has it changed? And here's my, I'll just give you my hypothesis. You can tell me if it's wrong. Pennsylvania is interesting and new and fresh and different and beguiling and winnable by a Republican and losable by a democrat

because of energy it's an energy state and in 2012 it wasn't really a fully understood or fully mature and energy state but it's an energy state now and uh the democrats go to when they're speaking to pennsylvania voters they inevitably shoot themselves in the foot by saying, this thing that's enriched you, I'm going to take away. Is that fair? I mean, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, doesn't he win it because of energy? Oh, absolutely. A couple of things is that, one, the Republican Party has overtaken the Democrats in a number of areas. Westmoreland County, which is east of Pittsburgh, and it is where La Trobe is, Democrats are down about 10,000 registered voters from four years ago. And Republicans are up, I think, 26. So like a net of 16, they're up.

That's very big, but on the energy thing. Uh, so, uh, at this big road rally, I was telling you about where we're in the big box parking lot. And, you know, one reason you don't see these in a lot of cities, a lot in the, in central cities is that you need a lot of asphalt to to stage a big road rally like this and so i'm i'm talking to people and i do ask them um are you connected to the energy industry um and quite a lot of them were as a matter of fact most of them were and uh the as a matter of fact, the event was staged by a woman named Amy Savage, who began a company called Oil and Gas Safety Supply. And it was in her parking lot that this started. And she also had a store in St. Clairsville.

So basically, the rally went from her store in St. Clairsville to her store in Washington. Oil and gas safety supplies sells things like hardhats, lamps, gas detectors, and tons of flame-resistant clothing, which tells you, you know, that it's a different business than, you know, you don't have to have flame-resistant clothing to be on a podcast. These are people who are doing real physical work in a dangerous situation. And I have spoke to a woman who was a big Trump supporter and her husband would have been there. But he was at work in a coal mine where he'd worked for the last 20 years. Some people actually were receiving a stipend from an energy company. They had a small piece of property.

There's fracking going on under their property, and they receive $300 a month or something like that. Mineral rights. That's the term, yeah. And so my favorite answer, though, was I asked the guy, you know, are you in some sort of way connected to the energy industry? And he said, yes, I am connected to the energy industry. I have electricity and gas in my house. And he was absolutely right. I mean, we are all connected to the energy industry. So this is a long answer to your question and is yes, because they all know what Joe Biden had said about fracking. They all know it. And they knew it before he said it.

I mean, they knew what his position was. And that's one of the valuable things about Facebook is they can send that to each other. Did you see what he said here and there? So it's a change. I mean, just say it's a change in pennsylvania because democrats have been winning pennsylvania and they've been anti-coal for 20 years so it isn't coal it's the coal plus natural gas that has tipped that state um it's the it's fracking it's fracking the fracking yep and and is there any i mean not that you're covering them now but is there any sense you get from the democrats that they're that they're? I mean, when you lose a state, you keep winning, and you lose it. The question is why? And it feels to me like that would be worth a little investigation. Not the DNC, but you know.

Good idea. Actually, as I was walking away from the rally, one guy was in his car and he said, hey, hey, hey, look at my tag. And his license plate was FRAC-IT, frack it. So are Democrats aware of this? Well, yeah, they are, because Pennsylvania was part of the blue wall, the phenomenon that a lot of people, including me, believed in, you know, states that had gone Democratic for six or more straight presidential cycles. And that's what Trump blew away in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So they seem to know it. But the pressure from what they all call the groups, their interest groups in the party, is huge. And clearly, it's an ideological thing. I don't even think it's an environmental thing, because if you wanted to reduce the emissions the quickest, you would switch to natural gas. Exactly.

Pretty obvious. And as a matter of fact, that's been going on and U.S. emissions have been declining for that very reason. So until you reach that wonderful, magical day where we just don't need petroleum at all for energy, that's a great thing to do in the meantime. We've had Bjorn Lomborg on and he said that when people ask him, aren't you worried about climate change? He says, yes, I'm very worried about it. That's why I support fracking. And just watches their heads explode.

That's exactly right. And so why aren't Democrats doing that? Why aren't they doing exactly that,ing fracking. And they can even try to phase out coal if they want to support fracking. But no, they don't. And that's because of the extremists in their party. Okay. I know everybody wants to jump in, but I'm tired of being polite. Byron, who's going to win on Tuesday? Oh, yeah. You thought you were going to get away with it?

The whole election? Yeah, yeah. No, I don't mean the whole. I'm not going to ask on Tuesday? Oh, yeah. You thought you were going to get away with it? The whole election? Yeah, yeah. No, I don't mean the whole. I'm not going to ask you the whole election. Start with Pennsylvania. Do you feel confident enough to predict Pennsylvania? Do you feel confident enough to predict Pennsylvania? Well, look, a guy comes to Pennsylvania for a week,

and you're right, that's not just a quick parachute. But on the other hand, I tell you what, it's a shame that you've asked me now, because when we finish this, I'm going to go to lunch with Selena Zito, and she'll know. But until then, I'm sorry. Oh, man. You've gotten so slick. Oh, my God. You've gotten so slick. That's a wonderfully evasive answer.

It's pretty good. I got to get A-plus for the evasion. You're welcome. But, you know. Okay. All right. It looks good for him. We have just been talking to one of the best political reporters in the country and the author.

James, it's too late to close, of course. But I just want to make sure we plug Byron's wonderful book. The author of Obsession, Inside the Washington Establishment's Never-Ending War on Trump. Obsession by Byron York. Great. And if Trump wins again, there'll be four more years of the war, which means you'll have eight years. So the war against Trump will last longer than World War II. Obsession II. Obsession II. Obsession Dieu, the electric boogaloo. Byron, thanks. We'll talk to you as soon as possible.

Everybody listen to the podcast, follow him on Twitter, and get the usual insight. That's great. Bye-bye. You mentioned La Trobe, and I wanted to talk more about La Trobe because, as we know, as I said,

it's the home of Rolling Rock beer, right? I still love that. Oh, right. What was in the back of that bottle? 33, 33. What did 33 mean? Was it a reference to the number of words in the ad copy? Was it a reference to the year that prohibition, the lid came off? Was it a reference to the highest degree of masonry than you can get? I don't know. Nobody's been able to figure it out in all these years. There's all kinds of knowledge floating around there. you wish you had the answer to.

And sometimes there's stuff you haven't even thought about at all that you're glad that you now know about and have the answer to because you listen to the right podcast like this one. But also like the Jordan Harbinger Show. Now, we've got a very different sponsor here for this particular segment. And that's a podcast. Another one. Why? Well, Apple named the Jordan Harbinger show one of the best of 2018. It's aimed at making you better informed, a more critical thinker,

so you can get a sense of how the world actually works and come to your own conclusions about what's happening, what that 33 means. There's an episode for everybody, no matter what you're into. The show covers stories like how a professional art forger somehow made millions of dollars while being chased by the feds and the mafia. Jordan's also done an episode about birth control and how it alters the partners we pick and how going on or off the pill can change elements of our personalities. So you're not going to find one set of viewpoints on Jordan's show. The podcast, it covers a lot, but it's got one constant, and that's Jordan's ability

to pull useful pieces of advice from his guests. You'll find something you can apply to your own life, whether that's an actionable routine change that boosts your productivity or just a slight mindset tweak that changes how you see the world. Go to jordanharbinger.com slash subscribe or search for The Jordan Harbinger Show. That's H-A-R-B as in boy, I-N as in Nancy, GE-R, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you happen to listen to podcasts. Give it a shot. And we thank Jordan Harbinger for sponsoring this, the Ricochet Podcast. And now we welcome to the podcast Luke Thompson, Republican political consultant, a very smart observer of the political scene, national review contributor, yay, and a crazy cat dude, we hear.

Luke, we're going to pin you down like Gulliver beset by Lilliputians. Who's going to win? Yeah, well, right now, I think there are two big questions, right? The presidency and the Senate. I would say Joe Biden is more likely to win the presidential election, but I'm starting to feel more bullish about the likelihood of Republicans keeping the Senate. Well, let's go with the good news first. Why? Why are you feeling more bullish? Well, the two are partially related. First of all, on election night, you know, I think the polling for Democrats in Kansas and North Carolina seems to have taken a step back,

and it looks like our candidates have a good shot to win there. Cal Cunningham's pre-epism has also helped in North Carolina. Cal Cunningham being the Democratic challenger to Tom Tillis. That's right, yeah. Income Senator Tom Tillis. Exactly, who is having at least one extramarital affair, and it seems possibly two or three during the campaign. Cal Cunningham, not Tom Tillis.

Yes, Cal Cunningham, not Tom Tillis. Yes. Cal Cunningham, not Tom Tillis. Correct. Yes. Tom, Tom Tillis. No. Um, anyway, so things are looking better in, in, um, in North Carolina. Uh, the polling in Iowa has improved as well. I think that's basically a toss up between incumbent Republican, Joni Ernst and her opponent, Teresa Greenfield. Um, you know, Maine is going to be hard to predict just because they have right choice voting there. And so if it is close between Susan Collins and Sarah Gideon, we won't know who wins until they maybe go to the second round of votes. And then, you know, there are uphill fights in Colorado and Arizona. However, what's important is that both races in Georgia appear to be headed to a January runoff. And if Biden wins at the top of the ticket, that will be three weeks roughly before he's inaugurated. And it seems to me, it stands to

reason in my mind that it will be very difficult for Democrats to mobilize their voters to turn out even with the Senate at stake if they've just won a presidential election. Whereas by contrast, despite the fact there's been a bruising Republican primary in one of the Georgia races between Congressman Doug Collins and incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler, nothing quite unifies a party like opposition. McSally in Arizona, Luke? Yeah, you know, the polling trends for her are better than they've been recently um but she had a lot of of terrain to catch up um i i think that probably it's it's it's a big lead but um you know i do expect don trump will still win the state and so if she can if she can close the gap uh from where she's

trailing him uh she's got a shot um but i i would i wouldn't put money on it but yeah you just uttered words that are a red flag to a bull as far as Rob is concerned. Donald Trump will win. I know you said the state, but Rob is going to come in in a moment. I have one more question regarding the Senate. Do we simply have to say that Cory Booker, talented as he is, adept as he seems to have been at positioning himself in a way that made sense for Colorado that we're likely to see him lose? Cory Gardner in Colorado. I'm sorry. I beg your pardon. Of course it's Cory Gardner. Cory Booker is a totally different

case. Sorry. Right. Different guys there. Two Corys. Yeah. You know, I worked at the NRSC six years ago when this entire class got elected. Cory Gardner is one of the best candidates I've ever seen. He's been an extremely effective Senator. I think he's passed more legislation than anyone else in, in his class. And, um, he's just, he's absolutely top tier. Um, the demographics in Colorado were hard and they've been moving away from the GOP. Um, it's, it's becoming a more suburban and more liberal state. And frankly, I do think it's moved away from him. Now, you know, two years from now, running in a midterm, if Biden wins

the presidency, then who knows? You know, he won in a good midterm year in 2014. Maybe we can get him to come back. But I certainly think it's an uphill climb. And that's through no fault of his own. He's one of the best members in the Senate. Got now Rob here he comes hey Luke how are you uh okay so I just drew a little I drew a little uh and shut you on on um on zoom here I did a little quadrant because of my long-standing uh way of like doing a little game theory so can I just like war game Tuesday for you a little bit sure Sure. And I just, what I really want to know is what, what is the,

what are the conclusions we can draw from this? And I, and then I'll give you what I would think, because the one is that Trump wins and the Republicans hold the Senate. Okay. And if that happens, you know, there'll be some celebration across the land for some people.

And, you know, the national media will just dissolve. I think this is no way I don't, I think it'll be like a massive, a celebration across the land for some people and you know the national media will just dissolve i think this is no way i don't i think it'll be like a massive massive worldwide stroke but but and for and that is a reason actually to hope for that outcome i think okay the second one is that trump loses but the republicans keep the senate and if that's the, it seems to me that the Republicans can make the argument that the American people don't like Trump. That's right. They don't like Trump. They got rid of Trump, but they like, in general, the Republican brand.

And I think that will be really important for Republicans because the idea that Trump is going to take the brand down is something that a lot of Republicans are worried about. The most unlikely thing is that Trump wins nationally and the Republicans lose the Senate. Right. That seems like completely that'd be crazy. We'd all be seems unlikely. Yeah. Biden wins. Biden wins. The Democrats take the Senate is the final of the quads. Right. The final possible outcome. If that's the case, how much trouble are Republicans in?

It's happened before. There have been Democratic presidents, Democratic senates, Democratic houses before. There have been Republican presidents, Republican senates, Republican houses before. That's what it was in 2016. How much trouble is the Republican brand in if that happens is it worse than before is it catastrophic is it you know render our garments for two months and then pick ourselves back up what what do we do and i mean also the other way too so go ahead sure sorry look i mean compared to 2008 i don't think it would be even even in the sort of maximal scenarios

where all the public media polling is dead on or even undercounting democrats and the democrats sweep and and they dominate everywhere which could definitely happen to be clear it could definitely happen um more on that in a moment um i i don't see a 2008 scenario right nobody's talking about 60 seats in the senate you know the outer bound projections are like 54 for Democrats, which is functionally where Republicans would be starting from because Doug Jones is going to lose. And so, you know, it's not, it's not a crazy, you know, that's, that's your bold prediction. I know, more or less, I think the GOP will be fine. You know, there will be also a Biden administration forced to govern without a clear governing agenda,

with a deeply divided Democratic Party, a Democratic Party committed in some sectors of it at least to bizarre ideas. They're wildly unpopular. And, you know, Joe Biden is not an experienced administrator. Yes, he was the vice president, but his function in the Obama administration was mainly to be a broker with the Hill and occasionally to, you know, chaperone his son on foreign junkets. So as far as I can tell, you know, there's a big unknown, which is how will Biden do actually running the government? And I do think he's going to. I'm not one of these people that thinks he's a stalking horse for Kamala Harris. He's going to want to run things. And I don't think we have any idea if he's up to the task. So in terms of the nightmare

scenario, electorally, where the gop just gets smacked you know we'll come roaring back i'm confident because there's there's nothing like opposition especially to an incompetent government and i spoke to some republicans who are some of them are elected who are not that would not be that upset by trump loses keeping the senate on the theory that trump is deeply deeply unpopular he's never actually been popular i mean never managed to get a coalition around him uh you know you get rid of the cancer is that legit or do you think that's a that's that's their their whistling past the graveyard i think that's wishful i think that's wishful thinking um you know donald trump didn't give himself a whole lot of slack because he played base politics and base mobilization politics, but that is paying dividends right now, where despite high unemployment, we are seeing in the early voting, especially early in-person voting, pretty solid turnout from Republicans.

If I'm a Democrat in North Carolina looking at their early vote numbers, I don't feel good. Or Florida, for that matter, Florida. Yeah, and even in red states, we're seeing high turnout among base Republicans. So, you know, the party coalitions are shifting and changing. That's happening. I don't like the word realignment because it implies this, like, periodicity and it's this weird kind of astrology around around American elections but coalitions change over time and the GOP is changing and the Democratic Party is changing and Trump accelerated a lot of those trends but he didn't create them and um so I think yes there is an effect of his of his personal approval issues at work here but that effect is mainly just removing cushioning

and in some ways is compensated for by the base mobilization. So the damage would not be as great as some people would maybe even like to think it might be, but nor will there be a spring back. The one piece of analysis that I thought was interesting this week when I was talking to somebody was they were saying, okay, you look at what the general feeling, not even just polls, polls say people have a kind of a vaguely optimistic, vaguely okay, Gallup poll came out and people said, oh, I'm doing okay. But you look at just the financial numbers and you have a record high savings, record high credit credit ratings people are feeling flush for whatever reason and this president has not been able to reap the benefit of that and that the argument was made to me was that this feels like a what would a surgeon a surgeon would call a sectioning

like you cut around the cancer you get clear clear margins, and you're done, and you hope that it doesn't come back. And I thought that was a pretty, I mean, you know, I don't know, I mean, we'll find out on Tuesday, but it felt like that was a pretty good analysis of getting your arms around all of the numbers at once and trying to see a bigger picture. Is that my crazy? I wouldn't overthink it um presidents with high unemployment don't get reelected my job that's what we do around here it's my rice bowl here yeah it's it's it's hard for presidents to get reelected when they have high unemployment um it's a struggle uh trump has high unemployment uh at the same time he has you know exponential economic growth this

is not a normal recession because it's been imposed. That means that there are sector and regional variations to it that you usually wouldn't see in a recession. So some of the economic forecasting models in terms of their effect on election outcomes have to go out the window or at least be somewhat attenuated. So yeah, I think that there are multiple things at work, but still the biggest factor here is that the economy shut down. Lots of people are out of work. And while people are saving and they have economic optimism, and what was it I think Gallup said, 57% feel like they're doing better than they were four years ago, which would be unheard of in a normal recession. Ultimately, it hurts when you have people out of work. It's hard to run for reelection. I know everyone wants to jump in. This is my last question. So guys get ready,

but I really, I do mean this. I don't mean this in the Peter Robinson sense of the last question. I think this is really the last question. Thought experiment. I'm not even going to ask you to predict on Tuesday because Byron York just shut us down so elegantly getting out of that request that I wouldn't, and you could never compete with that level a level of just sheer artistry.

No COVID. What are we talking about? The weekend before election. No COVID. I think you're talking about maybe the economy slowed a little bit in Q3 or Q2, but on the whole, extremely low unemployment, Trump probably looking like he's going to win reelection. Democrats hoping that a Biden presidency is normalized such that it will get them over the finish line

in the House to hold their majority there there because impeachment has massively backfired and looks extremely foolish now. And, you know, everyone's talking about whether or not vice presidential pick Amy Klobuchar has a political future with Minnesota trending red. Luke. Wow. Cool. I'm sort of brief historical observation then, which sets up the question. The high watermark, as I understand it, for Irish Americans to vote Democratic was the election of 1960, when they voted for John Kennedy. And then a curious thing happened once they got their guy into the white house the country was theirs in some basic way and they felt free to vote for republican in increasing numbers obviously there are all kinds there this is a much more complicated story than i'm telling but i'm wondering barack obama was elected president of the United States and served for eight years.

And now we see, and the question, of course, is, is this real? Is it illusory? What on earth is happening? Now we see, particularly after the second debate where Trump spent a couple of answers laying out what he believes he's done for African-Americans. Two organizations that I've seen, Trafalgar and Rasmussen, show an approval rating for Trump shot up among African-American males after that debate. I don't know whether they're right, whether they're wrong, what their polling techniques are, I just don't know. And of course, we've got this string now

of rappers beginning with Kanye West endorsing Trump. Could we be, I don't, this doesn't even necessarily reflect well on Trump. I know it does actually, it has to, because in some way he, and the Republican convention was clearly, there was clearly an effort there to reach out to African-Americans. Could we, could we be at this, at a miraculous moment in American history, There was clearly an effort there to reach out to African Americans. Could we be at a miraculous moment in American history when the lockstep between the Democratic Party and African Americans begins to break up and African Americans come into fuller participation in our political life and feel freer to vote for Republicans? Or am I dreaming? Well, I don't know that I would, I don't know that I accept your causal story because John Kennedy also did extremely well with Scots-Irish voters in Appalachia. And so, you know, he's on both sides of the Northern Ireland. That's the problem with talking to somebody who knows too much.

Great question. I won't accept your predicates, but good question. Yeah. No. So here's what I will say. I've seen enough numbers to suggest that Donald Trump is going to do much better than recent previous Republican nominees with Black men. He is also going to do just as poorly, if not worse, with Black women who, unlike in 2016, are going to show up and vote. So what the overall share of the Black vote is going to look like in terms of the GOP, you know, are we going to break out of the 9 to 12 point range and into the high teens or not? That remains to be seen and we don't know. My guess is that when all is said and done, it'll mostly be a wash. But as you suggested, Peter,

it's maybe the camel's nose under a tent and there's more to follow. But I would just phrase it in terms of gender gap. You know, we are seeing now across the board among white voters of various different stripes, Hispanic voters, and now Black voters, an emergent gender gap where men are voting for Republicans and women are voting for Democrats. And I think a lot of that simply has to do with the economic performance the last three years. You know, Black America was hit especially hard by the 2008 recession. You had a lot of people who lost their homes in that. Black unemployment remained stubbornly high and only rebounded slowly and primarily during the Trump presidency. And when you deliver for

people, when you create policies that make it so that they can pay down payments on their mortgages and send their kids to schools and things like that, they respond with their political affection. So I think a huge part of it is simply there was a runway there for Trump to deliver for Black voters. He did. And I think he got some rewards, not less so because of the criminal justice reform or celebrity endorsements, but more because their checkbooks were in better shape. Just good old-fashioned politics. I think Kamala goes under the tent will be the title of the book used to describe our vice president. Harris used the 25th amendment to assume the Oval Office. Luke, thanks for joining us today.

It's been fun. And we'll do a post-mortem with you where, of course, all of our predictions are proven to be right and full of amazing foresight. Because the show will be re-edited on Wednesday morning, of course. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. You think we're going to know Wednesday morning? That's ambitious. Good point.

Well, okay. So that's the closing question. Yeah, yeah. So you opened it. What's going to happen? That's ambitious. Good point. Well, OK, so that's the closing question. Yeah. So you opened it. Yeah. What's going to happen? Look, I think this is all going to come down to Pennsylvania. I believe Trump is going to hold the Sunbelt states. I don't think he's going to win Minnesota. I suspect Biden will get Wisconsin and Michigan, although who knows? There's some some churn under the numbers there. So if it all comes down to Pennsylvania, that means we're coming down to a state that doesn't even start opening and validating its mail ballots until

election day. So it could be, unless it's a route in Pennsylvania, and I think the only way it would be a route is if Biden routes Trump in Pennsylvania. I think Trump would only win narrowly. Then, you know, we could be waiting on the Bucks County reporters for a while. Great. Fantastic fantastic then we'll have two weeks of saying how naked ballots are actually going to be counted and it's a disparate impact in the uh in the way that the naked ballots were being refused and naked ballot will be the hanging chad of 2020 can't wait or maybe naked chads is what is what we're really gonna have to do yeah i think that was one of my fraternity brothers. Probably so. Luke,

thanks. We'll talk to you again. Take care, guys. In that, of course, he says, speaking slowly so the producer can find the sounder, brings us to... brings us to...

brings us to... brings us to... Oh, my God. This is just crazy. No, no, no. The James Lydon's member host of the week. No, no, no, no, no. You can't do it.

I have a new piece of software to play this. It's a software glitch. I've heard that. The level of expertise that's been shown on this show by the guests and Robin Peter, I think, demands that we do this again, just so it's

as tight and official. No, no, no, no, no. People need to see and know what we're up against. Transparency. I have to agree with that. I have to agree with that. The queue, your queue, by the way, I mean, I actually thought you were stretching the queue too much. I was like, come on, James.

It's not going to, at this point, and it turns out... In my defense, I have to get Luke out of there. You know, that's... Well, you know, but they're always... Which brings us, he said, to the James Lyle

post of the week. Preston Storm was a new member to Ricochet, and you should be a new member, too, because you get to be read on the air and famous da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da da In his bio, now he's in energy, I believe, or utilities, mentioned that he spent nine months as a shingle maker. And I was intrigued by that and said, we have a post about that because I'm always fascinated by industries, which I know nothing. I mean, I had my roof done a couple of weeks ago, and I watched these industrious fellows haul these pallets of shingles up the roof. And when I tried to pick one up, it was like it was made of neutron star material.

So what is the genesis and the origin, and what's it like to work in a shingle maker? So Preston wrote, I can't resist James Lilex's request for me to expand on my stint as a shingle maker. Six years ago, I was graduating college with a business degree and a seven-month pregnant wife. I'd worked full-time at a local firm and home store throughout college, but I wasn't going to pay the bills once the little one showed up. Every day, I'd check the job postings, applying for everything that would pay well enough and provide some sense of career opportunity. Numerous interviews and a few other offers, but nothing quite like what I was needing or wanting. Then, one day, I got a call from a prominent local shingle manufacturer about an entry-level production position. I'd

already interviewed with them several months prior for a corporate job, but was turned down. While it wasn't quite the type of job I thought I'd be landing, I figured there'd be a bit of room for opportunity considering my education. I was wrong. Maybe I was an impatient millennial. I didn't think so. And he goes on to say what it's like inside the shingle factory, which is something I guarantee that most people have never spent much time about. What fascinated me about this, in addition to the fact that a new member had all these stories to tell, was that the world is full of shingle factories. Everything that I'm looking right now around my studio here, everything is manufactured by something, and I know not the process. I know not how it's done, the stories, the lingo, the things that they know. It's just great to learn

something about an industry that's ubiquitous, literally covers everybody's house, but you really don't know much about where it comes from. it's one of the things i love about ricochet actually is the people sharing that stuff and sharing kind of the specifics of their work we had a bunch of people talking about i mean this is years and years ago we had a thread about people who'd worked at fast food restaurants and what they learned at fast food restaurants, which is really sort of interesting. All of that stuff is like, I mean, I don't know that look,

politics is going to be here forever. Right. And we just, but it is occasionally boring and it isn't really nourishing and it doesn't really make you feel good. It actually is designed to make you feel bad. I don't think people watch Tucker or Rachel Maddow, depending on what side you're on.

I'm like, Oh, I feel great. But there's something about reading somebody who's talking about their actual lived experience in an interesting informative way um uh and and and and we're a member preston storm knows that he's going to be heard by his fellow members in the right spirit um i don't know it's worth doing it's worth joining too by way, if you're listening and you're not a member. You should join. Does that cause something? One of these days we'll get Peter Robinson's story about his experience in the fast food industry, because I can see him in the little paper hat at the window holding a little sack of Jack in the Box out to somebody.

Well, I can also hear him saying, you know what, you don't really want fries with that, man. Ask me about the girl with green eyes i can still remember those eyes that was my fast food what is this mr bernstein from citizen kane the girl with the green eyes with the girl with the green eyes there was a i was behind there flipping hamburgers at a carol's Did you have Carol's in Minnesota? Wait, is this real? Yeah, absolutely. Are you kidding? I just made that up. Molly, Molly.

I don't come from some fancy background like Rob Long. I was flipping hamburgers at Carol's all summer. And you heard this a lot. You had Robinson, untie that sweater. It's unsafe by the fryer. Exactly. I did learn that it didn't make any difference at all if you flipped a burger and went on the floor you just picked it up as long as the customer didn't

see it it was fine yeah and uh all i can remember about that summer is that there was a girl with green eyes working in the kitchen with me who was gorgeous and would have nothing to do with me there you have it and i'm just looking up right now. I'm just going to Google E. coli outbreak, upstate New York, those years just to find out where we are. Yes, yes. And a day doesn't go by, but I don't think of that girl with the green ears. A day doesn't go by where you probably don't think, what am I doing with my money? I want to give, I want to give back, but where do I give back to? How do I know it's the right place? Well, I'm happy to say that we're sponsored today by the Nova Society at Donors Trust. That's a principled and tax-friendly way for those people under 40 to begin their charitable giving journey.

Let's imagine somebody named Jess. Every year end, Jess waded through a list of requests to save the puppies, keep the doors open at the favorite museum, fund innovative policy ideas. And she did. She always wondered, though, if the amounts that she was giving and even the places she gave to were right for her, and if she should put off giving until she had more to give. Talking to a friend, Jess learned about the Nova Society and Donors Trust. With the Nova Society, Jess could take a more strategic and efficient approach using a donor-advised fund. As part of

the Nova Society, donors under 40 get the Smart Charitable Giving Tool, a donor-advised fund to simplify the process of giving in a smart, tax-advantaged, and private way. Nova Society members also join a community of peers who share a commitment to the freedoms and the principles that strengthen America, and they're committed to smart giving as well. Plus, Nova Society connects you to the broader Donors Trust Network, giving you a partner to help increase your charitable impact. Be part of a new generation of giving. Join the growing community of liberty-minded donors at the Nova Society. Go to thenovasociety.org slash ricochet to find out. That's novasociety.org slash ricochet. And we thank Donors Trust for sponsoring this,

the Ricochet Podcast. All right, before we go, we got about a few minutes here. Predictions. I loathe predictions because I always feel on the spot. I get the general feeling that I'm wrong. And also, I don't know. Frankly, I don't know. I don't marinate in the polls in the day-to-day. I just sort of have my finger to the wind and what I feel from the geist of the zeit.

But go to Rob first. Predictions. House, Senate, presidency. Well, I'm a pessimist or an optimist, depending on what side you're on, or maybe a long-term optimist. Who knows? I actually believe it's the worst outcome for the Republicans. I think it's going to be a blue wave. That's what I think.

The House will be the same. Title or tsunami, though? I think it'll be, well, who knows? I think if they're going to lose the Senate, I think they're going to lose the presidency. That's what I think. Happy days are here again.

Peter? I have been marinating myself in the polls over the last That's what I think. Happy days are here again. Peter. I have been marinating myself in the polls over the last few days with the result that I am in a state of total confusion. It does no good at all. I looked up what I wrote four years ago, and I predicted then that Trump had about a one in three chance, I felt, of winning in the electoral college. I predicted zero chance of winning the popular vote. I suppose then my feeling is that he's in a somewhat stronger position. We didn't talk about this, but his campaign and the Republican Party, apart from the personality and even the policies of Donald Trump, has in a number of states quietly over the last two years been doing, as best I can tell, a very good job of registering voters. There's been a ground game that's been unreported between that and, well, I just,

as best I can tell, Trump is in a somewhat stronger position this year. So I'm going to say up from a one in three chance to say a two out of five chance of winning and the senate strikes me as about 50 50 there are there are races that are so close uh very interesting what luke said about the georgia races if both of those go to a runoff i suppose you'd really rather from the republican point of view you'd rather have both there's one ordinary election and one special election, which is why Georgia has two Senate seats up this year. You'd rather have those three weeks after Election Day itself. So that's my head. All right.

I'll give you my prediction. My instinct is that Trump is getting – my instinct is more like Byron's. It looks – it just feels like Trump is going to win when you look at the rallies, the enthusiasm. But I just – I can't quite get it there in my head. I remember the Romney rallies at the end of that campaign and thinking that that enthusiasm would translate into a victory. And I was dead wrong. And I just remember election night and having every single iota of enthusiasm was sitting in a room with Hugh Hewitt and Guy Benson, just drain out of my body into a, into a hole in the floor. Get to my prediction in just a second. But first I got to tell you these important things. The podcast was brought to you by

ButcherBox, by the Jordan Harbinger Show, and by Donors Trust. Support them for supporting us and get great stuff, great food, information, and charitable donating advice. Listen to the Best of Ricochet show. That's hosted by some short guy from Minnesota. Comes on this weekend on the Radio America Network. Check your local listings, as they always say. And, of course, if you could just take a minute,

just one stinking little minute to go to Apple Podcasts and rate us five stars, we deserve nothing less. And that helps the show get more listeners, which helps Ricochet get more viewers, and Ricochet get more members, and everybody wins, and it's all great. Alright, here is my prediction, but first

I'll ask you two. Do you know who a guy named Criswell was? Oh, uh, the, no, I was about to say Kreskin. No, no,

you're about to say Kreskin. You're close. I am. Well, sort of. Yes. Rob Criswell. Sounds so familiar.

You're in the industry. You should have card. He was cards. Wasn't he? No, no. You're thinking of James Randi or Kreski. Amazing.

Randy Kreski, the amazing ready, uh, who recently perished. No. Criswell, uh, is known for his appearance at the beginning and the end of an awful movie by Ed Wood, Plan 9 from Outer Space. Criswell predicts. He put out a book, Criswell predicts. He was just a hack guy.

He was one of those guys who just made up a bunch of stuff and saw what stuck to the wall. And he became very famous for a little time because he made a couple of predictions that actually happened. They did it, but I mean, it was one of those million monkey things. So for a while, Criswell had a vogue because he said something so absurd and outrageous and it came true and everybody's head swiveled around

and looked at Criswell and said, who's this guy? So I'm going to say that the Republicans will take the House, keep the Senate, and Donald Trump will win the presidency. So Rob's, everything's lost. Peter's in the middle. I'm Senate, and Donald Trump will win the presidency. So Rob's, everything's lost. Peter's in the middle. I'm saying, they're going to run the table. And if I'm right, I, too, will be like Criswell and have

a moment of fame and I'll end up in a bad movie like an Ed Wood masterpiece. I would say only this, that this is a perfect example of the safe harbor problem where the downside risk to you is precisely zero because nobody will remember this prediction. If it's wrong,

the upside, the upside is fantastic. Cause you'll be seen as like, well, you will be seen as Kreskin, the guy ability to see the future. This is socialism and left-wing economics in its purest form in other words it's media and it's why all three of us have chosen to live our lives this way exactly right now let's go can i what we're all interested in the future because the future is where we are going to spend the rest of our lives i didn't say anything about the house i'm not going to give a big speech here it looks to me as though the republicans could pick up two and possibly three seats in the House in my beloved California. And they're going to be, if they do pick them up, it's going to be Asians, maybe an Indian

candidate, maybe a Vietnamese candidate, maybe a Korean candidate. The politics of California are changing, and recent immigrants are moving into place they're not going to change far from changing but they're changing republicans in that case would go from holding seven yeah of 53 seats in the california delegation in the house to holding 10 of 53 seats that's a big that's a big change but it's a big change it's a big beginning of something yeah yes yes excuse me and there's. It's the beginning of something. Yes. Yes. Excuse me. And there's one guy of recent Mexican ancestry who won a special election to a House seat in California.

And I believe he has a good chance of holding on to that seat. This is big for California. Yeah. It would be the beginning of something. But it's the end of this podcast. Thanks, everybody, for listening. Thanks to our sponsors, Rob, Peter. Can't wait until next week when the beginning of the end and whatever

it is. It'll be all over. No. Yeah. Well, you know, stock up on ammo, boat up your windows, and we'll see what happens. Thanks, everybody. We'll see all of you at the comments at Ricochet 4. Next week. Which time I intend to I will have no memory of this conversation.

Perfect. We'll remind you. Okay, take care. When I was just a little girl I asked my mother What will I be? Will I be pretty? Will I be rich?

Here's what she said to me. Kiss the rock. Kiss the rock. Kiss the rock. Sister, I Whatever Will be Will be Will be The futures that I want to see

Well, well, well, well Case to write, case to write Case to write When I grew up and fell in love I asked my lover, what will I be? Will I be rich day after day? Is out my love sin? Day after day is our balance. Can't survive without my pain.

Whatever will be, will be, will be. Will be Will be Will be Will be Will be Will be Will be Whatever Will be

Will be Whatever will be, will be, will be. Oh, the future's now ours to see. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Kiss her right. Kiss her right. We, we, we, we, we. Kiss her right. Oh, you'll get down. Oh, you'll get down.

Ricochet. Join the conversation. Great. Yeah. Great questions, you guys. God, that was just fantastic. Quality podcast. It's a quality podcast. That was a quality podcast. I like my spot reads too. So we're all happy.