The Ricochet Podcast - Not A Fan

Episode Date: October 22, 2014

This week on the Big Show: Ricochet contributor and political consultant to the stars @theRickWilson on the Governor’s race in Florida and a look at other contests around the country. Then, the federal government is too damn big, pondering whether or not we are past peak fast food, RIP Ben Bradlee, and will China’s growth stunt our own? Also, keep your ears peeled for a rare Peter Robinson... Source

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Is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Activate program. More than our share of the nattering nabobs of negativism. Well, I'm not a crook. I'll never tell a lie. But I am not a bully. I'm the king of the world! I'm the king of the world!

Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. It's the Ricochet Podcast with Peter Robinson and Rob Long. I'm James Lilacs and our guest today is Rick Wilson to tell us why Charlie Crist is the future. Let's have ourselves a podcast. There you go again. Welcome everybody to this, the Ricochet Podcast, number 235, I believe. It's brought to you by Harry's Shave. And, oh, we'll be telling you more about that later. I can just tell you right now, for the finest shave at the best price,

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It's like Scrooge McDuck. Exactly. I've been diving into it like Scrooge McDuck style. Well, look, every week I tell you that if you are a Ricochet member and you're listening to this podcast, we thank you and we are honored and pleased to have you as fellow members along with us. And every week I say, listen, if you're not a member of Ricochet and you're listening to this podcast

and that number is enormous, please join. And I say if you join, you get to do stuff and then I, what we play some testimonials from fine Ricochet members to entice you to join. Not going to do that this week. I'm only going to say this. If you, one of the perks

of being a member is you get to hang out in real life. We actually like real life here. We're kind of conservative, so we like real life as a pleasant place for us. Well, not a pleasant place for us, but we face it. And real life, in real life, next Monday, October 27th

at 7.30 p.m. at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C., I'll be there. And so will James Lilacs. And I'm hoping two other special guests. I have a very – I invited someone last night who says he's going to be there. It will be a lot of fun. So if you're a member, please, we'd love to see you. This is the first of many meetups we have.

We have meetups all over the country. That one is happening next week. I'd like to see you. Also, there's another kind of fun thing coming. Look in your mailbox starting next week for a fun kind of a new thing we're doing, and we hope you enjoy it. So I'll just

make that my little preview. Not much more than that. Stay tuned. But look in your mailbox if you're a member. Isn't that right? Yes, yes. Exactly. Look in the mailbox if you're a member and look on the site? Yes, exactly. Look at the mailbox if you're a member and look on the site for ways to sign up. So there you go.

Is this going to be something that I can sign up and will clog my email box every single day? Because I'm very particular about those. It's got to be of a special quality. Oh, it's a very special quality. It's going to be great and it will clog up your mailbox every day. Yours especially, James. I have you on a special – there's a special thing you can do where it just – it knows who you are and where you are.

It knows when you're in the middle of something and then sends it to you. It has a special little announcement tone neighborhood, that somebody did a background profile on me, and that Dr. Oz recommends this pill for a 37-pound weight loss, and also that there are new car loans available, and HARP is refinancing. And I was under the impression that that was a sort of electromagnetic high frequency communication system that we use to correspond with distant submarines. It had recently been canceled. But in the Art Bell days, people thought it controlled the weather. It was one of the many things that controlled the weather. And here's something that looking over the last week is that there are people out there who believe that the government is so powerful that through HAARP and chemtrails and the rest of it, they can control the weather itself, yet they are absolutely unable to deal with something on a national scale like the public health crisis we saw last week. Guys, do you think that this has been another example in people

learning that government really can't manage large things like this? Or is this just proof that we need better technocrats? Peter, we'll bring you into this as the other co-founder who's been silent thus far. Welcome, Opine. Thank you very much, Opine. The government cannot, choice A, James, the government cannot hand, it is, at the beginning of the 1960s, John Kennedy said we would put a man on the moon by the end of the decade, and we did. And he, of course, was the World War II generation. In World War II, we did the Normandy landing. We drove Hitler back into the middle of Germany, backed him up into Berlin, where the government

seemed able to do things in those days. Why? Largely because the government was much smaller and a larger proportion of the budget and its energies was focused on doing things it was supposed to do, such as defending the nation, such as running a space program to build up morale during the Cold War. Now, the government – I caught something. This will say something dreary about my television viewing habits. I was flipping around the other day over the weekend and I came across something on the history. Anyway, I watched it. It turned out to be a couple of people I knew, Dick Allen and John Lehman. Dick Allen was Ronald Reagan's first national security advisor. John Lehman was his secretary of the Navy. Winston Lord, who's been

Henry Kissinger's right hand for four decades. And Bud McFarlane, who was also national security advisor. They were not talking about the Reagan years. They were talking about the Nixon years. And they were talking about the number of people who were involved in foreign policymaking at the National Security Council in those days when we were negotiating with the Soviets, when the opening to China took place, when all kinds of dramatic and important events were taking place. And the number was 60. And the number of people in the National Security Council. This is not ancient history. I'm not talking about the Civil War.

I'm not noting that Abraham Lincoln had a staff of two. Today, the National Security Council staff is close to 2,000. So the government cannot get things done. How's that? That's my answer. So the Department of Defense – I have a theory, right? But my question really is why does the Department of Defense, why does all of the armed services, even though they waste money and they do, even though they're slightly – there's

gigantic sclerotic bureaucracies, which they are, even though in many ways they're – I mean the Pentagon as an organizational building is a joke. It's so enormous. Why is it that they manage to be effective at doing what they do? I'm not arguing that they're right about policy, policies set by politicians. But in accomplishing the mission – and I have a theory. Okay. I have a theory. Oh, your theory?

Can I give you my theory first? Go ahead. Sure, sure, sure. I have a theory. Okay. I have a theory. Oh, your theory? Can I give you my theory first? Go ahead. Sure, sure, sure. I have a theory too. We may have conflict or coinciding theories. This is fun. My theory is measurable results. You either succeed or you fail.

Does the Department of Agriculture succeed or fail? Impossible to know. Does the Department of State succeed or fail? Impossible to know. Department of the Interior succeed or fail? Impossible to know? Does the Department of State succeed or fail? Impossible to know. Department of the Interior succeed or fail? Impossible to know. They have no measurable results. And if you fail at those, if it fails at its mission, whatever its mission is, no one comes home in a plastic bag. That's close to mine. Mine is concrete objectives. If you're going to put a man on the moon,

it's a technological problem. You have to get from here to that moving object there in this amount of time in this environment. Figure it out. The same with the Pentagon. We have to figure out how to get X number of people over here to kill X number of bad guys and destroy Y number of things. And so when you have specific objectives like that, then Rob's theory comes into play. And at the end of it, you can look at measurable results and say, well, how did it work? What we have is – it used to drive me crazy when people would say, we can put in the man on the moon. How come we can't do this? And this was always some vague, blobby, gelatinous thing. How come we can't give preschool care to every – yeah, that's one of the things.

Peter, what is the theory that is yours? We are answering the question here because I would concur in what the two of you say. I noticed all those years ago when I was in government, I thought about it a lot because what Rob notes is exactly true. The Pentagon is effective, I beg your pardon, in a way that almost no other large federal bureaucracy is. And I came to two conclusions which complement yours. One is the Pentagon attracts a different kind of person. And you can go through the demographics of who goes into the federal bureaucracy and who goes into the Pentagon, and it's just striking. I'll just name one of the differences that will jump out at you, the Pentagon attracts a disproportionate

number of people from the American South. Victor Davis Hanson will tell you, and this leads to my second point, Victor Davis Hanson will tell you that the Pentagon continues to exist on a 19th century core of values, duty, honor, country. And the second point then is incentives, whereas throughout the rest of the federal government, incentives are just exactly backwards. You get paid what you get paid. It's very hard to promote anybody. It's impossible to fire anybody. So the incentive is to do less work.

If your pay is going to remain the same, you do less work. That means you get paid more per erg of work done, right? The Pentagon isn't in the money-making business. They are there for a different set of reasons and there is a sense of mission that drives them and disciplines them. So there's a kind of an internal set of rewards. The incentives are just that MacArthur's old phrase, duty, honor, country, really does to a remarkable extent cause the Pentagon to function. Well, it functions. We should just be clear.

It functions. It does not function efficiently. No one is arguing that the Defense Department is an efficient, well-run, well-oiled, a lean machine. But it has deliverables and it delivers them. So that alone is – I mean the federal government – the sclerosis that attacks the federal government attacks the defense department just as easily. They buy weapon systems they don't need. They waste a lot of money. But they do – at the end of the day, they have to accomplish a mission, which I think

is really important. Failure is punished. It is still the case. Still the case. The United States Navy – in fact, I had a very good friend to whom this happened. It is still the case in the United States Navy that if you are the captain of a ship and you have a collision at sea, your career is over. Whether, whether, no, no, no. Well, yes, yes, yes and no. However, the friend that had happened, another ship ran into his and his career was nevertheless over.

It is absolutely inflexible. Discipline. Take one second. I had breakfast yesterday with an old friend of mine who's a documentary filmmaker. And on our side, I should say, you have to clarify that when you say things like documentary filmmaker. I can hear everybody, Elizabeth Boddick, saying, oh, God.

No, no, he's one of the good ones. And he's got a documentary coming out. I think it's going to be in December. And I'll post about it. It's great. About Admiral Rickover. Right. Fantastically interesting character.

Universally loathed in the Navy. Despised. Nobody liked him. He was weird and he was tough and he was strange and he was eccentric and he basically had all the attributes of a Silicon Valley entrepreneur. He was the Steve Jobs of the Navyies, the inventor of the nuclear navy. When the navy said this can't happen and it won't work, he made it work. That's why we have subs. That's why we have aircraft carriers.

He was a genius and he did not fit in to the navy. In fact, he didn't even want to make him an admiral. He went and demanded that Congress make him an admiral, which they did. And yet he managed to thrive in a way in that organization and innovate, which I think is pretty amazing. There will be no – what I'm looking for is the Admiral Rickover of the Department of Education, the Admiral Rickover of the Department of the Interior, and we're never going to find it. So there you go. No, and you won't. And you won't until it becomes a matter of the culture that if we don't do our job right, people die. We die.

Our friends die. People at home die. And you don't really have that in the school system probably just as well. But maybe – Although, can I fantasize about it for like a year or two? If there was a professional analog to that, perhaps you'd have something different. But that would require taking out the unions by root and or branch. Is that an idea?

Is that something the GOP should mention in 2016? I don't know. Let's ask an analyst. Let's ask a political analyzer himself. Let's ask the best. Let's ask Rick Wilson back to the podcast. He's one of the top political consultants in the Republican Party and, of course, one of our most popular contributors and a joy to follow on Twitter. Welcome.

Hi, guys. Of all the races this year, the Florida governor race is the most interesting in an amusing sort of grim way. Tell us your take on that and whether or not you think that the latest reinvention of Mr. Crist is going to strike a chord with Florida voters. Well, this is Charlie Crist 6.0 at this point, which is just like Microsoft Windows, it stopped getting better after XP. And Charlie's ability and desire

to suddenly go from being the fiery, passionate, right-wing, chain-gang Charlie conservative to the Reagan conservative, to the squishy Schwarzenegger-style Republican, to the embattled, desperate Republican to the independent to Democrat to now he's casting himself as a Democrat who is to the left of Elizabeth Warren. And, you know, as a as a Howard Dean level populist, you know, this is a guy who reinvents himself so often that the patent office would have their head spinning if this was a tech product. So you're telling us Rick Scott is a terrible, lousy, stinking candidate because Charlie Crist is dead even with him, right? FBD doesn't stand for friendly business ducks. Or for the freelance beatbox department. FBD stands for support. We support businesses and communities across Ireland. Visit your local branch to talk to your FBD stands for support. We support businesses and communities across Ireland. Visit your local branch to talk to your FBD insurance team

and see how we can support your business. FBD Insurance. Support. It's what we do. FBD Insurance Group Limited, trading as FBD Insurance, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Right now. Rick Scott does not possess certain gifts as a candidate, namely, um, poise, charisma, style, um, a head full head of hair, all the usual things. Other than that, I mean, the guy as a, as a governor is outstanding. He's had a phenomenal economic record. He will be the first to tell you, however, he is not, you know, I'm doing Chris Farley

fingers. He's not slick. He's not smooth. Whereas Charlie, you know, because Charlie Chris is a high functioning sociopath, he can come across, you know, very persuasive. He can come across in a way that is, you know, seems very empathetic and very kind and very attentive. But that's only because he's trying to lure you into the rape van. I mean this is a guy who's a frightening, frightening psychotic. So, Rick, you're not a fan? You know, pretty much not a fan. I'm OG when it comes to being against Charlie Crist.

And we worked on his U.S. Senate race in 1998. I've known Charlie since 1987 when I was a young dumbass in the political business working for Connie Mack. And now I'm an old dumbass working in the political business. But this is a guy who has always been a combination of unbelievable superficial, you know, attitudes in the campaign side, a complete disconnect on all matters of policy on the on the political side, on the legislative side. So is he going to win? It looks like he's going to win. Well, look, this is going to be two yards in a cloud of dust. I'll give you the rundown as of right now. We have done very, very, very well in absentee ballots. We have about 180,000 vote pad on that front right now.

The Democrats, we've started, we were in day two of early voting. That's where the Democrats put their resources, their efforts, their energy. They'll do pretty well on that. And so we're going to come into election day with two guys who nobody really likes and two guys who, who both have, uh, baggage politically speaking, you know, Charlie's is that he's got a record of failure as governor. I mean, Rick Scott repeats the line with, with, with great vigor that Charlie lost 860,000 jobs in the state because it's true and it works. Um, and the detriment of Rick Scott is,

you know, he does not come across as a traditional candidate to people. He's very tall. He's very thin. He's very bald. And he sat in his trailer and waited for that fan. That fan thing must. How bad was the fan fan gate? He'd say, you know, I have to say this is this is in a lot of ways. The fact that only six thousand people were watching the debate live streaming and otherwise it was on public television means that maybe 25,000 people in the state saw it. It was certainly a cause de l'oeuvre among the media and the chattering classes. But ordinary voters, if – you could put a gun to their head and they couldn't tell you what fan did. OK. Because I was worried because I mean I am an admirer charlie christ about a little less so than you are and i i'm

concerned for a minute um so can we just ask can we just just because if anybody's like me you know it's like at this point in an important election i just want it to be over i just want to know who's going to win because i can't stand the i can can't stand these – I'm not physically capable at my age. I agree. And guys, let me tell you my secret for happiness on election night. I don't watch anything. Old movies. I turn on the news about 11 o'clock and say, oh, good, or we're screwed.

So I'm going to put you on the spot, Rick. Prediction. Florida. Florida prediction. I predict we're going to go to a recount. I predict we're going to go into Election Day roughly tied. They're going to win early. We're going to win absentee.

And I've been saying this for months. It is going to be two yards in a cloud of dust. Rick Scott won last time by 61,000 votes. You know, Charlie Crist in the last election had his head handed to him by Marco Rubio. And neither of these campaigns has been able – you know, Chris, given his permanent long-term status as the eternal statewide candidate and with basically 100 percent name ID, is stuck in the low 40s on approval. Rick Scott, with $60 million of TV on the air, is stuck in the low 40s on approval. This is a race where the last guy that's standing there with his, you know what, in his hand is going to lose. And it is a really, really tough call, guys. I'm telling you,

it's going to be a close night. Both sides are talking a big game about their field operation. The Democrats are saying this is Obama 2.0. The Republicans are saying we've learned the lessons of Romney. You know, One side is a Potemkin village. I wouldn't put money on which one that is right now. I think the Republicans have improved dramatically on the field side, and I know that the outside organizations that are here on the ground like AFP and American Action Network and other folks are working very, very hard on the ground. That may end up turning the tide for Scott.

Hold on a second. There has to be a reason for people to switch horses in midstream, particularly if one of those horses used to be a giraffe, a donkey, a llama. What's the appeal? I don't understand exactly what's gone wrong with Florida that people have to say, oh, Chris, there's the salvation. There's the savior. Well, that's the problem is a lot of Florida voters. Let me describe the typical Florida voter for you. She's a little old lady now. When she was 55 and recently moved to Florida after her husband retired from Michigan,

she first heard of that nice boy, Charlie Crist, running for state Senate. And then it was that nice boy, Charlie Crist, running for education commissioner. Then that nice boy, Charlie Crist running for state senate. And then it was that nice boy Charlie Crist running for education commissioner. Then that nice boy Charlie Crist running for attorney general. And then that nice boy Charlie Crist running for governor. And they've always seen the puppy dog eyes and the little pout and the, oh, I love Florida so much. And they never really had to connect with him beyond seeing a tidal wave of TV ads. And so they've been conditioned. And some of those people are going to go in the voting booth and go, he seems like he's on the wrong line, but that's Charlie Crist.

I know that name. And they're going to click the button. So and if Scott could frame this thing, and he's done his very best to frame it as a referendum on economic competence. And there's no question Charlie Crist is like a drunk with a can of kerosene and a box of matches when it comes to the economy. Every single prescription on Crist's so-called economic plan is get more money from Washington, spend it. Right. So all right.

So I mean this is a surprise to me, but of course I'm not much of a Florida watcher that it's that close. There are two other races that we could just maybe expand a little bit and go around the country that are – one's surprising me. One's not surprising me. Last summer I was talking to a bunch of your typical Republican leaders, and I mentioned Arkansas. And I said it seems to me like Tom Cotton is going to – can he pull away here? And they said no, come on. Pryor is entrenched. It's an old Arkansas name.

Maybe this is the last time this is going to happen, but Pryor is safe. Well, it looks like Cotton is going to be the new senator from Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton, a war hero, senator from Arkansas. What happened there and and it can we and just while i ask you what happened could you bring us up to date on the on the thesis problem you uh if you don't follow rick scott on twitter you really should because it's got great stuff i'm sorry wick wilson on on twitter you really should we'll put we'll we'll put that link up there um so Pryor wrote a thesis in college about how the South had been invaded twice, once literally and once figuratively by the forces of desegregation. It goes without saying that if any Republican candidate for dog catcher anywhere had written, they'd found that high school thesis. That person would be pilloried to be a six act play. candidate for dog catcher anywhere had written they'd found that high school thesis uh that

person would be pillory to be a six-act play so so what's happening in arkansas why is prior gonna lose well i think exalted cyclops and grand cleagle uh mark prior uh with this uh with this thesis you know this is the one of the last misstep this is is that moment where Arkansas's reasonably large black voting age population now takes a deep breath and goes, what? Basically, Cotton in all the polling averages has been running ahead right now, four to six points in a lot of surveys, a lot more in the internals from what I'm given to understand. He's got a very solid lead there. And this is a twofer. The first is that Mark Pryor is not his dad. And, you know, he is less skillful as a politician. The inertia of his name ID when Arkansas was still more of a purple state got him into office. But Arkansas has become increasingly Republican across the

board. It has become increasingly conservative across the board. And in Pryor's case, you've got a guy like Tom Cotton who doesn't scan as privileged son of former senator. You've got a guy who scans as good old boy who became a war hero and has come home to do good. And I think Cotton has in some ways been the perfect candidate to pick that lock in Arkansas to overcome the natural name idea, the prior name. I've never, never, ever liked the idea that you vote for somebody because their father, their mother, their relative was good in politics. I mean, nobody says, you know, your dad was a great optometrist. I'm sure you can do open heart surgery on me. It follows. I hate the idea of these dynasties, yet we have them. There's another nun running somewhere, don't we? Don't we have nun, nun the lesser or a daughter nun or what's the nun situation? Yeah, well, Michelle Nunn is actually polling very well in Georgia right now.

The Democrats are looking at Georgia as one of their wildcard states to try to bail out what has otherwise been a devastatingly bad year. But I think what you're going to see in Georgia, I think we may end up going to a runoff in Georgia, which favors Perdue at the end of the day. David Purdue has not been a particularly man graced with a particularly wise description of his outsourcing business. He probably should have picked a more

felicitous way to describe it, but he didn't. That's been something that's kept her afloat. Right now, she's polling in the polling averages, yeah, about a half a point ahead overall. It's going to be, like I said, it's going to go to a runoff. There's a libertarian that's dragging out some numbers. So it goes to a runoff if anybody gets below 50%. That's right. And Michelle Nunn and our guy, Tillett, what's his name again? David Perdue. I beg your pardon.

I'm confusing North Carolina, which is the next question. David Perdue. Why does a runoff favor Perdue? Because at that point, it's going to be the same scenario that we were in with Saxby in the 2008 cycle where he ended up in a runoff and we just crushed him. And you will see Republicans will turn out, especially in an off-year election and runoffs. Those are very, very strong for Republicans. It's also why you're going to end up with Mary Landrieu. Even if the conservative spoiler Rob Maness in Louisiana manages to force a runoff with Cassidy, you're going to end up with a, I'm sorry, my dogs are barking.

You're going to end up with a runoff that's very much favorable to Republican candidates. So prediction for Louisiana is a runoff is there as well, and the Republican Cassidy pulls it out. Well, I'm actually thinking that Cassidy may skate over 50%. He's very, very close now. He's been polling in the very high 40s the last three or four surveys, and I think he might pull it out. But one way or the other, Mary Landrieu will be retiring to her beautiful house on Capitol Hill without a seat in the U.S. Senate. Good. Okay. So we pick up on the Wilson count. We pick up Senate seats in Georgia and Louisiana so far. North Carolina Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan has big negatives, but she's still up on most of the pollsest damn thing you can do as a candidate. So he spent the spring and part of the summer being Speaker of the House, rolling around in the legislative – oh, excuse me, Bud.

You can bleep that. Well, it's election time. And it gave her a chance to spend an enormous amount of money. She has outspent him dramatically, particularly in the spring and summer and framed him up as the evil education, hating Coke automaton, you know, eating Republican bad guy. Um, now 13 days to go. Does he have the money to believe in, in spending? He's, he's got a lot of cash right now.

They are pushing really hard. They're essentially tied at the moment. And he's going to have to win this outright because there's no runoff system, as I recall, in North Carolina. Is that correct? There is none. But the early voting numbers coming out of North Carolina have been very encouraging for Tillis. She was so shaken that she skipped a debate last night with him. And the storyline that's actually working for Tillis, and I think they need to stay on this, it's a two-front piece.

One is her family received millions of dollars from stimulus money from contracts that somehow or another just magically happened to go to their companies i don't know what could have caused that stimulus stimulus money for which she voted as a member of the united states senate and her husband put in the family bank account that is correct and and this is the sort of thing that one should end up wearing an orange jumpsuit because of right but you, it has hurt her very badly. It has shaken her very badly. The Wilson prediction on North Carolina is? Republican pickups? I beg your pardon? I don't believe we win North Carolina.

Oh, Hagan wins. Okay, two more for you. Alaska. I wish it's, we're going to win Alaska. No problem. Yeah. FBD doesn't stand for friendly business, ducks. Or for the freelance beatbox department.

FBD stands for support. We support businesses and communities across Ireland. Visit your local branch to talk to your FBD insurance team and see how we can support your business. FBD Insurance. Support. It's what we do. FBD Insurance Group Limited. Trading as FBD Insurance, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. All, I mean, Alaska is famously problematic on the survey side. It's just, I call it snow Florida. So they're very eccentric about survey work. It's very dodgy there. But Sullivan, in every public poll that I've seen and one private poll that I've seen in the last five days, is enjoying a substantial lead there. The last survey I saw, he was plus five.

Oh, OK. So Alaska's done. Last question from me. New Hampshire, where Scott Brown is a carpetbagger. He's gone over the state border. He has a summer house in New Hampshire. Well, so he's a carpetbagger. he's gone over the state border. He has a summer house in New Hampshire. Well, so he's a carpetbagger.

He's running for the Senate in New Hampshire. Jeanne Shaheen, this is the Robinson thesis. I'll test it on you. You tell me if this makes sense to you, Rick. Jeanne Shaheen, as far as I can tell, is a personable, well-liked centrist Democrat. Her only problem in this race, the way Rick Scott Brown can possibly get close to her is if Obama drags her down she's polling and has been polling pretty consistently two to four points up it looks as though in the last few days Scott Brown may be closing there's been a poll here and a poll there that has him up by a point so suddenly it looks as though it might be in play, I'm dubious.

What about you? I am skeptical right now that Brown is close enough. I do think the race is volatile. I would not make a call on it right yet. And I do think externalities can cause this thing to change quickly. It is a volatile race. But she has been consistently polling plus two, plus three, plus six in the last few polls. But he's on TV. He's fighting it out. I don't think she covered

herself in glory in the debate last night, but I don't think necessarily it was such a disaster that it disqualified her. But that's a tough seat regardless. So on the Wilson, I've been making notes here rick so highly do i think of your prognostications so far so far we've got you with the democrats holding north carolina the democrats holding new hampshire no change there nope uh georgia we keep yeah michelle nunn will not pull it off. Alaska, we get. There's one pickup for us. Louisiana is a pickup for us. And Arkansas is a pickup for us.

Kentucky? That's a head fake all the time. Mitch is going to win that thing. He will. Okay. And so Republicans pick up how many on net? Well, we're also going to pick up Colorado. Right.

Oh, that's done, you think? That's broken open? Udall is in pure free fall right now. The guy has the guy has absolutely stepped in it. Give him any opportunity to screw it up and he screwed it up. God bless America. So so so on net, how many seats do the Republicans pick up in the Senate? I think what we're going to end up with is is is is at the end of the day, I think we're going to end up with 53 or 54 seats. I told the Washington Journal the other day, I'm more bullish than a lot of people. But, you know, oh, and by the way, I think we're going to keep Kansas, which is why I'm also optimistic.

I think Orman has been exposed as the Democratic fraud and stalking horse that he's always been. And I think Roberts pulls that out in the end. You mentioned early voting. I hate early voting. I hate mail voting too. I want to get up, go down to the school and draw the curtain behind me and mark the things and engage in a civic process.

If you can't get off your dead fundament filled with lazy, low information, then don't vote. Some things require you to go out there and actually do it to show that you're involved. Now, other things, for example, when it comes to going to the store to buy razor blades, who wants to do that? Who wants to make the trip? I don't. There's no civic virtue in going to the store to buy razor blades. Which is why Harry's is going to be the place that people are going to want

in the next year or so when they celebrate their first anniversary. And you can say I was there at the beginning. Harry's is the, well, they've disrupted, to use that wonderful buzzword that everyone loves, the shaving industry. They've turned it on its head, frankly. And instead

of sending you to the store to buy the same old overpriced blades, they give you a high quality product. Heck, they bought the factory. 97-year-old. It's probably 98 years old by now. A place in Germany that makes the finest quality blades. And Harry's will ship them to your house. You get the same blade in wonderful packaging, might I add, with skincare emollients and all sorts of ways in which you can either fetishize the process of shaving with as many lathers and post-shave applications as you want, or just grab the razor, go and shave. And either way, you're going to be clean.

You're not going to look like some be-fuddled, bubbled, stubbled, mubbled, fuddled kind of guy. No, Harry's. Go there. Coupon code RICOSHAY. Five bucks off your first purchase. I like that one. James, that segue, bubbled kind of guy. No. Harry's. Go there. Coupon code Ricochet. Five bucks off your first purchase. I like that one. James, that segue was as smooth as a Harry's shave. Oh, wow. I wish I had come up with that. See, I can't say that, so

go on, Rob. Hey, Rick, I got it. So I need to ask my emotional questions first. I have two emotional questions, and there's a right answer to the first one. And I need you to tell me what I want to hear here, because need to know i just need to go through my day having clinging to you and i promise if you if it turns out to not be right i won't come back at you scott walker please tell me i need i need to know that he's gonna win i think that scott walker has been through the ringer so many times and has been such a target of the stuff you're hearing about her surging and whatnot

is the union folks wish-casting themselves and trying to get their people revved up and ginned up. I think the fundamentals are with Walker. I think all their attacks are making... But Clinton's coming. I mean, Clinton's going to be a stomp for her in Wisconsin. He's still really popular there.

I mean, that's another question I got. So you're, you're telling me that I can go about my day somewhat confident that we're going to have a governor, Scott Walker. I believe that you can be confident. We're going to have a governor, Scott Walker. I don't think that the Walker team, and I know those guys have done a ton of work in Wisconsin over the years. Those guys are not, are not sleeping in, in the morning. They're working like they're 10 points behind, um, to make sure that they turn out the republican vote um and and look the democrats have have have beaten their chests about scott walker for gosh it's now you know five years of constant you know

ground war uh against him and and the fact of the matter is, you know, she is just not closing the deal as of this point. Look, they're making a huge effort. But I believe that Walker, at the end of the day, all I think their attacks are, like I said, they're already baked in the cake. Right. They're already sort of like like there's nothing new under the sun in in burke's campaign and well actually most of her campaign isn't new because it's plagiarized from other places but right you know okay that i said that feels good i have a several more global question for you at the beginning of these midterms when you look at when but you know i mean last year and you were looking at polls we're looking at the way it was looked like it

was going to break for Republicans. People said, well, this is going to be a great year for us if we don't screw it up. And of course we all know the Republican Party is capable of doing – of immense amounts of screwing things up. I know we're only about a week out, and it's early. On a scale of one to ten, how – ten being the ultimate screw-up one being no screw-ups where are we well i mean look if a ten is a todd aiken yeah and and a one is a marco rubio skating across the you know with with no no no real flames on his back I think right now we have seen a triumph in the Republican side of this equation in that the phrase I use constantly and tirelessly

and it pissed people off on the conservative side is, candidate quality comes first. If your candidate is good at their work, if they raise the money and they do the heavy lifting of learning how to speak to people and they do the heavy lifting of campaigning and they constrain their impulse throws out something about birth control to alight off of that question and move on to what you wish to speak about. So – and that has made the Tea Party guys sad in a few races. But we've got a crop of smart, conservative candidates who also are – they're post-2012. They've seen the lessons of you can't be a Sharon Engel. You can't be a Todd Akin. So Rick Wilson agrees entirely with Karl Rove and Mike Murphy.

Well, it's not the rarest thing. Okay, so Rick is associating himself. Establishment. Rick, who is well-loved on Ricochet, is associating himself with Mike Murphy, who causes fur to fly every time he joins us. All right. Just for the record now. I want to get that clear. Establishment.

Yeah, I know. Believe me, as an iconoclast, a good day for me is when I get grumbling from the D.C. committee guys and grumbling from the Tea Party guys. I feel like I'm in the sweet spot when I get that. I mean, we did an ad for Bold Agenda pack this week, and it was basically a sort of test run on some themes that were very well tested. Hold on, Ebola agenda? I didn't do Ebola agenda, no. I didn't do that. I said bold pack agenda, although I am America's pro-am Ebola expert. That's kind of true. Every prediction I've made about Ebola,

I mean, my batting average versus the administration is outstanding. And we went through and we tested a bunch of themes and we ran them out there and they weren't perfect on the far right of the party or on the establishment side of the party. And we're happy with that because voters are moved by those themes and they're the audience. Here's a theme that we may not have heard of, and perhaps this is the last question. I say Peter Robinson style. You mentioned before the deep state of Wisconsin, a term that we use to describe the entrenched apparatus in every level of government that once brought to bear in

a partisan manner can make your life hard. This is an abuse of power. This is not what the founders intended. This is not what people really want to think that the government is and does and is capable of doing. Yet, it doesn't seem as if the right can get any traction on pointing this out to people, whether or not it's what the prosecutorial misconduct in Wisconsin or the IRS or any of these other matters where you have the deep state going after people for political reasons, for reasons of speech. But we can't move the needle when it

comes to getting people to take this as perhaps a threat to the republic. Is that part of the bold agenda or is the idea, look, we'll run a bunch of guys who can get in and then once they get in, they will quietly dismantle it, which I don't believe, of course, is something they do unless they ran on it and people held their feet to the fire about doing something about it. Is one of these bold agendas IRS reform, for example? Well, I believe that we are reaching an inflection point in the country where people are beginning to sense that the out-of-control nature of prosecutorial discretion has gone too

far. I mean, there is a level now in this country where people are living in this world where you're automatically dinged by red light cameras. And if you join the wrong association, you get your taxes audited. Or if you're a pastor in Houston, you get people subpoenaing your sermons. So I think there is a sense that that's coming. The Republican establishment and the Tea Party side have not yet worked out a methodology by which we're going to do that dismantlement. But it has to come, I think, starting with the governors, and they have to start saying no to some of this stuff. They have to start saying, no, we're not going to play you down. It's like if there's hope, Winston, it's in the proles.

If there's hope, Rick, it is in the govs. Rob, I believe you had a query. All right. So this is really my – last, I want to make a confession because I've been thinking about this. My confession is this, Rick, and I know it's going to hurt you, is that I can't – I mean except for sort of aesthetic reasons or moral reasons or universal alignment reasons. I would much rather have Charlie Crist, governor of Florida. That's a race on Tuesday night I'm willing to lose. And my theory is this because he is, as you say, a sociopath.

He's bought and sold. I'm not worried about. And my theory is this because he is, as you say, a sociopath. He's bought and sold. I'm not worried about a radical Charlie Crist agenda. You can buy him back. This guy is up for grabs. That's the chief benefit of a soulless politician who has no loyalties is that you can buy him. The problem is that Charlie Crist will direct the state supervisor of elections to throw open the registration system. He will push through things that will level the ground for Hillary in 2016. And you lose Florida and you lose the ballgame.

He is surrounded by some very – All right. I just want to ask Rob. I'm now convinced. I'd like to ask Rob. Rob, our rational – the rational member of this team here, that sounds super – it sounds to me as though you have an almost Aztec view of the election, that you have to sacrifice one. What is there – we have to choose one right now. We're going to sacrifice this candidate to get –

North Carolina is the sacrifice. Got it. Rob, let is the sacrifice. Got it. Rob, let it burn long. Got it. Just pick one. I mean, look, I just – you don't win them all and I just – I want to – I'm preparing myself. I don't really want to face Scott Walker not being governor of Wisconsin, but I can live with Charlie Chris as governor of Florida. But now Rick is making me think this thing more dimensionality than I did before.

I don't want to have to run away. You guys can reach me at the re-education camp once he's governor. That's right. Well, we know there will be a lot of fans there keeping you cool. All right. Well, thanks for joining us today. We'll have you on the day after the election and measure all your prognostications against reality. Just kidding. We'll move ahead as if nothing happened.

All right, guys. Talk to you later. See you on Ricochet. If you don't follow him, you should really follow him on Twitter. He's one of the great Twitter feeds and always points to something interesting. So he's a great guy. Indeed, he wrote that running account of the ebola breakout before we all got spun up about that you remember that peter do you uh did you did you see that it may have been storified for your reading pleasure later what you just said to peter he doesn't

understand a word i don't understand i think store storify is a means of of uh aggregating a whole bunch of tweets into one long running thing so you don't have to keep scrolling back and looking ahead and jumping in. He just had what would happen the first time that somebody came into an emergency room bleeding and ushering gouts of blood and the rest of it. It was a rather harrowing story. Even what happened, however, even though we got a guy showing up, throwing up, having the bad symptoms, and they still, still didn't do anything. Imagine what happened if somebody comes in with a very low, low, low, low-grade fever. What's the matter with your fever? Well, I've had this fever for – I've had it for 45 years.

Well, maybe you should stop voting Democratic then. That's almost what you want the African-American community to think. And that's what Jason Reilly is telling us in his book, How Liberals Make It Harder for Blacks to Succeed. Please stop helping us. It's our encounter pick of the month. And in this book, he examines how well-intentioned welfare programs are in fact holding black Americans back. Minimum wage laws may lift earnings for people who are already employed, but they price a disproportionate number of blacks out of the labor force. Affirmative action in higher education is intended to address past discrimination,

but the result is fewer black college graduates than would otherwise exist. And so it goes with everything from soft-on-crime laws, which make black neighborhoods more dangerous, to policies that limit school choice out of a mistaken belief that charter schools and voucher programs harm the traditional public schools that most low-income students attend. In theory, these efforts are designed to help the poor and poor minorities in particular. In practice, they become massive barriers to moving forward. End of praises. To get this book for 15% off the list price, you can go to encounterbooks.com and use the coupon code

RICOCHET at the checkout. And of course, we thank Encounter for sponsoring this, the Ricochet podcast. And when Jason Riley talks about the minimum wage, of course, some of the pushback to minimum wage laws comes from the fast food places. And this last week, we saw bad earnings from Coke and bad earnings from McDonald's, which has led some to believe, and I think this was a discussion on Ricochet, that the fast food era is over. Now, they asked our governor, Mark Dayton, what his favorite fast food was in a recent debate, hard-hitting question. And he said, chocolate ice cream, because he's a simpleton.

Really, I mean, and because he's a very rich simpleton, that's what is to him fast food. But to the rest of America, it's something different. And so I have to ask, Peter, I know that you're one of those guys who's uh you know always out there in the car with the kids coming back from soccer and i am at daycare so the drive-through is your lifeline is it true amongst your peers do you see that uh that fast food is is losing its favor not not not where i live not if you've got a car full of uh teenagers who've just finished football practice, In-N-Out Burger is where they always want to go, and there's always a line, always a line. I can't – so if you – as Rob would tell you, don't go to Robinson if you're asking about trend spotting.

Oh, no, but actually I would because you have – you intuit, you channel somehow the things that are going on. That actually may – there may be a trend. Here in Northern California where the economy is still pretty strong, Intuit, you channel somehow the things that are going on. That actually – there may be a trend here in Northern California where the economy is still pretty strong. Maybe what's going on is that McDonald's is going to get hurt. I don't know. I don't know what the numbers are in Northern California. But I could see sort of an upmarket, a move upmarket in fast food.

That's exactly right. Rob, you were going to say? Well, I'm not sure we could see that. I mean these are corporate earnings based on lots of other different things and expenditures and marketing. And for McDonald's, it's simply a price slash. And their price slash worked for – right after the – right at the beginning of the recession, 2008, 2009, 2010. And now the price slash isn't really working so much. So these things go up and down. I think fast food is not going anywhere.

Maybe certain trends in fast food will go. I would – were I betting on a company to capitalize on fast food trends, I would bet on McDonald's. They have had extraordinary growth and it's a pretty smart company. I don't like the food there too much. The fries on the other hand are – there's really some of the best fries in the world are McDonald's fries. That's the only reason that I go there. Everything else that they serve is not really food as I understand it. Well, but that's – okay.

But people like it and it's – and the fries are delicious and they've managed to do this for many, many years and show incredible growth. So fast food is not over. I mean if you go to New York City right now, Chipotle is the biggest fast food restaurant everywhere and that's fast food too. And I think that these places are redefining the idea of fast food. It's no longer just a greasy bowl of meat in a bag that they hand out the window. It's actually something that's pretty good. Chipotle can be pretty good. There's all of these other burger places that actually they charge a little bit more.

Yes, but what you get is actual – you get the feeling that this was not produced in a laboratory by manipulating corn and other funguses. But that's different from being popular and that's different from earnings. If you're going on the profitability of the company, the earnings or its growth potential, look, Jack in the Box is pretty good. The Carl Karcher Enterprises, which is now owned by some Yum! Brands.

I don't know. Well, Yum! Brands. Yum! Brands is one of those Louisville-based fast food company. Their biggest property is KFC, Kentucky Fried Chicken. They changed to KFC. KFC's biggest growth area right now is in China.

China. It's huge. It's huge. So, no. Not even junky fast food. And I don't want to be – you don't want the party to be tarred as the group of elites who look down their nose at people who eat fast food. That's not what I'm saying. I think it's just that we ought to say to people that you should have better fast food.

It's just a cheaper – but that's – Peter, we have Michelle Obama on here all of a sudden. A rising tide lifts all boats unless, of course, everybody is too fat. You mentioned China. We've had news this week that China's vaunted 8% growth rate. It's always 8%. That's the target, and they always hit it, that they actually may be looking at 7%. And there's talk of a China slowdown, and there's a talk that China's slowdown may actually ripple throughout the world.

Let's take a look at this and see two years out from now, come presidential election time, what do you think China's going to be, and will it play a role in the election? Peter, you're the foreign policy guy with the Reagan credentials. What? Good lord. Well, China has to slow down. The bigger it gets, the more slowly it goes. No, good lord, because it's like – that's like here we are at the water cooler on the trading floor at Goldman.

OK. So what happens? What happens if there's a Richter scale 6.9 earthquake in Tokyo? What would you buy and what would you short? My mind doesn't go that way. So will China – China two years from now will seem more threatening and dangerous to us then than it does now because no matter what their growth rate, their spending on the military is increasing much faster than their growth rate. There is some – I don't – I have to say, understand the internal politics of China. They just waited out the protesters in Hong Kong rather than cracking down on them.

At the same time, though, they are giving the people who run the Chinese military wonderful, expensive, sophisticated new toys to play with. And the job of those toys is to claim the Pacific or at least the near Pacific for China. And the only way for China to do that is implicitly to push out the United States Navy. That's happening all the time. Two years from now, it will be two years further along. Rob, did you see the new ship that we just launched? I forget the class, but it was the Detroit.

And I thought, boy, I wish they'd chosen another name. How about the Palo Alto, the Cupertino? The Venice Beach. Well, let's go for growth areas. China's an interesting nation, right? I mean, slow growth in China is actually not a terrible thing for us or for the Chinese. Remember, the Chinese don't buy anything from us. So their economy collapses it really has no effect on the world economy they do not buy so it's usually you're in trouble when your buyer goes broke and you don't have the buyer anymore you know if europe slows down then we're all in trouble canada slows down then we're in trouble china doesn't buy anything china's where we china sells things um so in a way we're not as concerned about that and slower growth for china is probably a good idea for China because it's been overheated and they have a lot of hidden inflation, a lot of like asset inflation right now.

They have real estate inflation like Southern California and Florida could only dream of in the boom. So as far as China's military expansion, it will always be an issue for us. I am not quite – I'm not sanguine about China, but Chinese tend to behave the way they've behaved for a thousand years. They don't really change. They're not really expansionist except in their own borders. They may feel insulted by having US gunships 100 miles off the coast. They may not want that. They are certainly very prickly in that, but I'm not sure they

represent a territorial threat the way the Soviet Union did. Or an ideological threat. Although they do have the concept of top-down management with a certain amount of freedom allowed to keep the people happy. Although Hong Kong seems

to be chafing at that. And you you love well you don't love it to see people but i was just saying like that's a generational issue with hong kong uh those are young hong kong those are very young hong kong um citizens who don't really remember what it was like under the british but uh but what were promised by their parents that's also happening in mainland china by the way promised by their parents something else and they you – it's impossible to be half free and half not free. That's just – it's not possible. And so that is a generational problem of the Chinese. The mainland Chinese actually I think handled it really well.

I mean as well as they could for an oppressive regime. They could have done a lot worse and that would have been – I think they showed the restraint that they didn't show all those years ago in Tiananmen Square. But that's a generational problem that will keep coming back. Those young people do not want to live under a repressive regime. Well, I'm – Go ahead. Go on.

Well, in mainland China, it's a slightly different problem because you have the old guard, the super old dudes. They were the reformers. And then you have the young people who are also part of that sort of reform movement naturally because they all – that's young China. You have a very repressive middle regime, which does not remember famine, does not remember 60 million starving people, does not remember the Cultural Revolution, has no memory of that. And instead has a kind of a rosy idea of what life was like under communism and they're the ones who are next in line for leadership and that's what's worrying. I'm just looking forward to the Thomas Friedman column that applauds the way China cracked down on the democracy. You know and I'm also waiting for the column. It cannot be long delayed. It's in 2016 when he says

that maybe it's time to leave the country if we do indeed elect a Republican president, which reminds me, there was a member post this week, Majestic, wrote about, hey, how much is your vote worth? He was referring to a Thomas Sowell column, which is saying, you know what, if you don't like it here, if you think you're getting a bum rap,

there's the door, and we'll give you $100,000 seed money. Do you guys applaud that idea? Did you, did you check out that discussion and see what, what folks were saying? How much would you pay somebody if, if they voluntarily left?

Well, of course my price would vary depending on the person. If Tom Friedman were to leave, it would be the, the price would be no object. Now, now mind you, it's auctioning off your citizenship to somebody else who can pony it up, which I mean

if you're auctioning off... Auctioning off my citizenship, so where would I live? Oh, that's the question. You would go to some place that unlike America is much more enlightened, is much more... You would go to a place that isn't as xenophobic and hates immigrants as much as we do. Oh, like France, for example.

How is the French brother-in-law? Yeah. We have not heard much about him lately. Effortlessly containing a multitude of contradictory ideas like many French brands. Sign of genius. Yeah, sign of genius. Or being Walt Whitman or something like that. I have multitude.

A RIP old bit in the news this week, Jason Robards died. Reactions? I didn't know he was still alive. It was Ben Bradley. Ben Bradley. Oh, right, right, right, right. Isn't that weird? I know exactly what you meant when you said it,

but my head was saying the same thing. Ben Bradley died. Maybe the last iconic city editor, don't you think? Or city paper? yep yep i'd say i would have included abe rosenthal but abe rosenthal has been dead for four five six seven years now good lord i lose track of time yep yep i guess so this is this is not to say however that i admire him uh but yes iconic right the great the great hero to the press, to a general. The strange thing is, just Googling around yesterday when I saw the news, he's not getting quite as big a send-off as I would have expected.

And I realized the generation of journalists now working barely even remembers him. He's one of these people who live so – so Woodward and Bernstein are now quite old men. How old are they in their 70s yet they may very well be you know i i was talking to somebody yesterday about that and we realized yes well bernstein i don't know about woodward bernstein's in his 70s look the kids are the kids who are going into journalism today in the j schools are not inspired by all the president's men their impediment to employment are the people who were inspired by all the presidents and got union jobs and cannot be pried out. So that's sort of an – to them, looking at all the presidents meant as an exemplar of how journalism is done is like me in the 70s in high school looking back at the original front page. May I tell a story here?

Just a little story that goes back. This is the last Watergate story I will ever tell, but I think even Rob, who has very high standards, will agree that this is a good story. This was told to me by my friend Sal Russo. Sal is based in Sacramento. He's been a political operative here in California on the side of truth and justice since Reagan was governor when Sal was a young guy on the Reagan staff. And Sal worked for Richard Nixon, knew him, and he was one of the Washington Post, to one of her salons, one of her dinners.

To his further surprise, she seats Sal at her table. And after dinner, there's conversation. She asks, how is President Nixon? And then she pauses and says, I believe that history will judge that he was a better president than we at the Washington Post ever said he was. And history may judge that we did not do a very good job in our duty as the press during those days. Well, Sal could hardly wait. Sure enough, Richard Nixon calls him a few days later. Sal's back in Sacramento.

And he says, Mr. President, you're never going to believe this. He describes the story. He gives the setting. And Mrs. Graham said, history will judge Richard Nixon far better than we at the Washington Post ever judged him. And there was a long pause. And then Richard Nixon said, that bitch. Bitch. He was always himself. Always himself. And he was right. If anyone thinks that the podcast can possibly be topped after Peter Robinson has imitated Richard Nixon's swearing, well, it can't be done.

Out we go. We got to thank, of course, as ever, Rick for showing up here. Well, it can't be done. Out we go. We've got to thank, of course, as ever, Rick for showing up here. And you can catch him as well on Twitter and at Ricochet. We thank Harry's Shave, Coupon Coder's Ricochet. You use it. You get money off your first shipment. And by shipment, I mean the blades come to you. Isn't that nice?

And, of course, EncounterBooks.com, the Coupon Coder Ricochet, will get you the latest there as well. Jason Reilly please stop helping us and we'll be talking more about that

we had him on the show a while ago go back go find the archives and listen to him

absolutely and of course we'll see you in Washington Rob you were about to say yeah I was about to say the same

thing Washington DC Mayflower Hotel if you're a member if you're not a member you can come and join right then but it's really only for members Washington DC Mayflower Hotel. If you're a member, if you're not a member, you can come and join right then. But it's really only for members.

Washington, D.C., Mayflower Hotel, 730, October 27th. James and I will be holding court. We'll have a few special guests. We'll have a nice chance to hoist a, maybe we'll get a pizza or something. I don't know. It'll be fun. It'll be very fun. And if you're not a member, that's

one of the more reasons to become a member. It'll be great. And after we're sufficiently liquored if you're not a member, that's one of the more reasons to become a member. It'll be great. And after we're sufficiently liquored up, we'll call Peter on the cell phone and say, all right, the gang's all here. You're Nixon. Do your Reagan saying bastard. Okay. Bye, everybody.

See you at Ricochet 2. Bye-bye. Next week, fellas. Thanks. Thanks. What a sunshine Damn you Every day Well, well

I'm going down In Florida What a sunshine Well, well, I'm going down to Florida What a sunshine, damn yeah, every day Yeah, I take my boy out on the beach, fellas And sit down in the sand and play beach fellas and sat down in the sand and played yeah I think

I'll go down in Gainesville got to see an old friend of mine well I believe to see an old friend of mine. Well, I believe I've dropped down in Gainesville. Well, I just to see an old buddy of mine. Well, you know, if we're not too busy

I believe I'm going to jump over and you bury some time Well, all right, let's go back to Florida, yeah Ricochet Join the conversation Ricochet. Join the conversation. Let's go back down to Florida where the sun shines. Bye. you