The Ricochet Podcast - The Undiscovered Country
Episode Date: March 5, 2015This week, a tribute to the late, great Leonard Nimoy (you must read James Lileks’ wonderful tribute, “ I Am, and Shall Always Be, Your Fan“), the great Col. Allen West on ISIS, veterans, and th...e President’s love for this country. Then, our GLoP pal John Podhoretz on Bibi’s speech and the chances of blocking the President’s deal. Music from this week’s episode: I Won’t Back Down by Johnny Cash The... Source
Transcript
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Hello, everyone.
I'm not going to get, I don't know what's going to happen here.
I don't have any information on that. They don't understand what you're talking about
And that's going to prove to be disastrous
What it means is that the people don't want socialism
They want more conservatism
Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.
It's the Ricochet Podcast with Peter Robinson and Rob Long.
I'm James Lileks and Ten Hutt.
Colonel Alan West is with us.
And J-Pod, John Podhortz, to talk about BB.
Let's have ourselves a podcast. There you go again.
Yes, indeed, it is the Ricochet Podcast number 251.
And if you are thinking of these in terms of Roman numerals, that's a great habit.
But a bad habit is paying too much for shaving, so don't do that.
We're brought to you by Harry's Shave, which tells you that overpaying for drugstore razor blades is a bad habit.
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So make the smart switch to Harry's, and if you listen a little bit more,
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And we're also brought to you, of course, by Ricochet itself,
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Rob, give them the pitch.
Well, you know, James, thank you for tossing that over to me with that charming introduction.
I am going to say this.
We have many, many, many tens of thousands of listeners to this podcast.
We do not have tens of thousands of members.
We need everyone listening to join Ricochet.
But instead of asking you to join,
go to ricochet.com and join. I want you to go to ricochet.com and just check it out.
Just see the conversations we're having. We're having some great ones right now.
And then sign up for the Daily Shot and get the Daily Shot every day. It's a great digest,
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And so it's a great service.
You should sign up.
Get it every day.
It's fun and funny.
Check out Ricochet.com.
I know that if you get the Daily Shot, I know that if you come to Ricochet.com, I know that
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soon so i'm only asking you a very small thing not a big thing don't reach into your wallet just come
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i'll take care of this yes right exactly right. Exactly right. First one's free.
Welcome to Ricochet where your money is no good here.
Peter Robinson, on the other hand, is in California.
On the other hand to what?
I have no idea.
And Peter, you know, I could ask you about who you've interviewed this week,
your radio appearance on The Hugh Hewitt Show, things you've read,
progress on the book.
But, of course, what I really want to know is you're the father of teenage sons.
Were they affected by the passing of Leonard Nimoy?
Zero.
I am terribly sorry to have to deliver that news to you.
But I know I understand.
So early in the morning, I'm unable to do anything other than tell the truth.
If you give me a moment or two, I'll fabricate something.
Hey, James, have you met Peter's kids?
No, they're kind of like, you know, they're sort of jocks.
You know, they're really kind of the cool kids.
They're the kind of kids that, oh, I the kid wearing the Spock ears into his locker.
I don't doubt it.
But on the other hand, my daughter told me via tweet in the afternoon – or via instant message in the middle of the afternoon, in all caps, the actor who played the original Spock died, which she knew only from having seen the movies, the brand new movies in which he appeared.
And then she asked me, are you sad?
I wrote a piece about that.
Are you sad?
You wrote a beautiful piece.
You wrote a beautiful piece.
I should say, just so you don't have to, if you're listening and you haven't read James' beautiful piece about Leonard Nimoy, please go to ricochet.com.
It really was very, very moving.
And I have to tell you, before we get into the jokes, I was moved by it.
I admired that guy.
He was a good actor.
He was a smart guy.
And he really sort of embodied – that was a hard character to play.
Absolutely so.
And as I said in my piece, what he brought to it was a certain amount of humanity that you didn't expect from a cold-blooded – well, green-blooded alien.
I like the fact that his subsequent career, he tried to get away from it.
It's a reminder to us all that you get identified with that one thing and you spend a lot of
your life trying to come to terms and accept it, which he did.
I mean, it seems he wrote a book called I Am Not Spock and then finally he wrote I Am
Spock.
I think the original title was OK, OK, I Am Spock.
And then the third book, Can I Play Spock Again, Please?
But I also like the fact that he did the Harold Lloyd thing, which is in his later career, take a slightly naughty photography.
Harold Lloyd, the great silent film director, spent the last few years of his life doing 3D nude photography.
Really?
Yes, he did.
And he was very good at it.
How would you know?
What's the standard of comparison?
3D nude photography.
Because the eyes follow you around the room, Peter.
It's the eyes.
Anyway, my question is,
for you guys, politics-wise,
and for Rob, sports-wise, I'll ask you, Peter,
who is the person
who you think is the equivalent
in your particular industry who, when they go, is just going to make you just pause and your shoulders
collapse and think, ah, the ravages of time, winged chariot, et cetera, et cetera. Peter?
Oh, well, no, not too early in the morning. I thought, I thought you were going to say,
who's the equivalent of Spock in, well, okay, so I'll answer your question and then I'll answer my question, which I thought your question was going to be.
Answer however you like.
In my life, the next man up on deck is of course George H.W. Bush who's in his 90s now and confined to a wheelchair.
I don't – I'm not saying this because he's – I hear anything other than that he's in remarkably good health.
As a friend of mine who had just seen him the previous week said this weekend,
for the shape he's in, he's in pretty good shape, so to speak.
But he's the next large figure in my life who's likely to go.
I do think who in the political realm is Spock-like,
coldly analytical, and yet wonderfully human at the same time.
And the answer to that,
when you get him being analytical is Henry Kissinger.
He will,
you have the feeling that he is by,
he is squeezing all the emotion out of his analysis.
He is just describing reality as he sees it.
And then after that struck me again, during his testimony to the Senate Armed Services
Committee late last month, late January.
And then you realize that the only reason he's doing this is because he feels so deeply
because he was a refugee from Germany, because he's an American patriot.
But that kind of cold but human analysis is Henry Kissinger.
I find that's a sign of maturity too. I know I sense it in myself sometimes when I am advocating a position or suggesting something or looking at something a certain way and I realize I'm doing it from an emotional perspective or I'm doing it – this is how I want things to be rather than how things really are.
And I find I lose patience as I get older with people who are unable to make that same distinction or are unable to make it when I'm making it, I should say, because I often fail at that too. blooded top goblin or whatever it was that McCoy kept shouting at him. It's like you kind of thought, well, the world needs Spock more than it needs McCoy's
because you need to balance and you need to weigh and you need to sort of see things clearly.
I don't know.
So I would say in show business for me, I don't know about Spock, the personality,
but I would say Spock, the Leonard Nimoy.
I'd say something like – I would feel it that way when Bob Newhart dies.
Somebody who really did something kind of effortless that looked effortless but in fact took in a huge amount of artistry.
Well, as far as something looking effortless and being the sign of great art, there are those who also can exert themselves in a variety of ways, both political and military, and gain our respect in all those fields.
Which brings us to our guest, Colonel West.
I am here. How are you guys doing?
Hey, Colonel West, it's Rob Long.
We haven't seen you since the National Review cruise.
How are you? Thanks for joining us.
I'm doing very well. Happy New Year. Good to be with you guys.
So I got a question, very important question.
Do you have your own email server?
No, I don't have my own email server, and I am not as privileged as the Clintons are to be able to do that and to have the United States Secret Service guarding my own email server. So let me ask you something. You're an expert in national security.
Is that – does that worry you?
I mean what do they call it, OPSEC, Operation Security?
Is this a real problem?
I mean to what extent – if we could just separate for one minute.
Obviously we want to score points, political points.
That's a completely legitimate thing to do.
She's the Democratic – likely Democratic nominee.
Those of us who don't want to see her be president want to make sure everyone knows just how shoddy she's been. But on a practical level, how serious is this as a breach of national security?
Well, it's an incredible breach of national security. at the recent case of the charges that were brought against General David Petraeus in sharing
those black books that had some classified information with his biographer, Paula Broadwell,
who had a security clearance. So when you think about the fact that the Secretary of State of the
United States of America for four years, and you can't tell me that everyone else in the administration did not know about this, but for four years was operating on official American diplomatic business on her
own private email from her own private email server out of her private home. This is very
disconcerting. And this goes beyond just simple, you know, slap on the hand. There are felony charges that could be related to this offense.
I think, Alan, however, this is Lylex.
I think maybe you're not giving her enough credit.
I mean, her initials are HRC, and we know now that her email handle was HRD.
So she took the C.
I think it's HDR, right?
HDR, moved it down a letter, put it in the middle, and then turned two letters around.
That's the kind of stuff I don't think even the Chinese could figure out.
I think those are her initials.
Those are her maiden name initials.
No one could figure that out.
I mean, that's like the German Enigma Code.
I mean, it's a great.
Colonel.
Sorry, go ahead, Rob.
No, you go, Peter.
Colonel, Peter Robinson here. I'm the one person on this line you haven't met, but it's an honor to talk to you.
I have a question for you, a question for you about what it must be like to be an officer in the United States Armed Forces right now.
We silly civilians get up on with our lives, Rob in Hollywood, James in Minnesota, me here
in California, and so seldom does it ever cross our mind, except even now when we look
at the news and we see YouTube of some horrible event over in the Middle East.
And yet, of course, as you know, particularly officers, the people who make a commitment
to remain in the military for a decade or two decades or longer, whose daily work it is to keep us safe so we don't have to think about it.
But I don't want to give you kind of a sloppy question about what's it like to work in the armed services when you have a commander in chief you don't much like.
But really it does kind of come down to that.
What is it like – what does it do for morale?
What does it do for recruitment?
What is it like to serve day to day when you've got a commander-in-chief who sent up a request
for an authorization of the use of military force to Congress that will rule out –
batting ISIS will rule out ground operations.
He's telegraphing that, telegraphing it to the enemy, making it public.
What just as we get in the final two years of this administration, when in all kinds
of ways, the wheels seem to be coming off the project, what must it be like for the
men and women who are still in uniform?
Well, you know, first of all, I will tell you, it's not just the officers, it's those
senior enlisted and even junior enlisted people that are very concerned. Let me put it into
perspective. You know, I'm sitting right now and I'm looking at the news where we are seeing
Iranian revolutionary guards, Iranian militias, Al-Quds forces that are working with the Iraqi army to retake the Crete.
In 2003, I was in the Crete, and we had secured that area.
When you look at the movie American Sniper,
and you understand that the enemy that we were fighting at that time
and was portrayed in that film was al-Qaeda in Iraq,
and the fact that they had been defeated, decimated, and they were gone.
They were out of that country.
But last January, they were reconstituted as an organization called ISIS.
They started with 3,000 fighters.
Now they're up to about 50,000 to 60,000.
What that does is it really does cause a—it's perplexing to the men and women in uniform because we don't lose at the tactical level.
We lose at the strategic level, where people all of a sudden want to politicize national security,
when people want to put campaign promises above the National Security Reform College of the United States of America.
And that is very frustrating.
That is very, in some cases, it really does hurt some of these young men and women who the PTSD that they're suffering from, you know, having been in Iraq or Afghanistan, it's even more exacerbated when it seems that civilian leadership cares little about the service, sacrifice, and commitment that they have made on the battlefield.
That is what is damning for our men and women in uniform. Now, let me tell
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Took an oath to support and defend our Constitution
in the United States of America
against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
They will always answer the call.
And when you talk about recruiting, the horrible little secret that people don't realize,
the two biggest discreditors of young men and women in the 18 to 25 target demographic to be able to be recruited in the military,
number one is felony and drug charges. Number one is felony and drug
charges. Number two is medical and obesity. It's not a lack of desire to want to serve.
It's just that they are being disqualified from serving. And that's why I'm against this
legalization of marijuana in these states, because basically what you're doing,
you're counting out that demographic from being able to join the military military because we're not going to allow drug use in the military.
Well, Colonel Peter Robinson here one more time.
You mentioned PTSD.
Jim Mattis, General Mattis, retired of the United States Marine Corps.
I'm sure you two do know each other well.
He gave a speech here in San Francisco to a veterans group. This would be not long after the start of the year in which he said in brief – I can only remember a brief part of what he said.
He said, we're starting to view our veterans as victims and I don't buy it.
That's a direct quotation.
I don't buy it.
And then he said – and this is another direct quotation.
There's such a thing as post-traumatic growth.
Do you believe that?
Do you know what he was talking about?
Yeah, I absolutely do know what he's talking about.
And I don't want to see, you know, an American population that wants to make veterans out to be victims, poor little creatures that, you know, the next thing you know, well, you probably shouldn't have your gun rights because we're concerned about what you may be going
through mentally.
And that's why I am glad to see this whole PTSD defense that was put up for Eddie Lee
Ralph in the shooting of Chad Littlefield and Chris Kyle was not substantiated.
You know, our men and women serve, and all they ask is that when they come back or they get out
of the military, they're just allowed the opportunity to continue to serve this country
in a civilian position.
And when you look at the Veterans Administration Hospital and that system, I'm very appalled
at what we see happening because we're not fixing the problem.
You know, we have caught Secretary McDonald in several lies when he's talked about who's
been released.
And then, of course, you want to play along like he was in Special Forces because a homeless
veteran said he was in Special Forces.
That's how you treat people in a dismissive way and victimizing them instead of really
trying to hear their concerns.
So we need to have individuals in the VA bureaucracy.
First of all, we need to reduce the bureaucracy, but we need to have more veterans
and not just the civilian elite that are in charge of that program, that system.
So, no, I do not subscribe to the—I spent 22 years in the military.
I've been in three different combat zones, Desert Shield, Desert Storm, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
And I do not subscribe to the victimization of our military. There is post-traumatic growth, and that's what we need to be talking about and not continue to pat veterans on the head.
Hey, Colonel West, it's Rob Longan. If we go back to something we talked about earlier, I mean I know we're kind of making fun of Hillary Clinton, but you mentioned David Petraeus. He pled guilty this week.
How did that make you feel? I mean is he getting real – full disclosure, I think he's sort of an incredible leader and incredible thinker, and losing him from the national scene and certainly from the strategic scene was a big blow.
Do you agree with that? Do you think he's being railroaded? Do you think it's fair?
What should we take from the Petraeus saga?
Well, you have to always – the individual is responsible for their behavior and their actions. So I'm not going to make excuses, but I will say this.
There can be no doubt that the Obama administration targeted General David Petraeus much the same as David targeted Uriah the Hittite because he wanted Bathsheba.
The Obama administration wanted Petraeus out of the way because they knew that he was that commanding figure, a respected leader, and a potential presidential candidate.
That's why they asked him to take a demotion from being the central command, CG,
and he went back over to the theater of Afghanistan to try to fix things there.
And then, after that, they asked him to become a CIA director.
General Petraeus, who has a servant's heart, he probably should have said no in both cases
and just thwarted the plans of the administration because I really believe they targeted him
to attack his character, to make him not be reputable, tarnish him a little bit,
and I think that is what's happened.
But the honor of the man is that he said, okay, I'm guilty.
I did it. Let's move on. Punish me however you wish.
And that's what the military teaches you. We take responsibility and accountability. I wish we had a president, a commander-in-chief that would do the same.
It is an interesting character study, isn't it? I mean taking your perspective that he did this, he did it, and he pled guilty to it, and he's taken his lumps.
It does make him a rare figure in the national political scene.
Yeah, as opposed to Hillary Clinton.
Yeah, right.
Yeah, as opposed to Hillary Clinton, and you see the Twitter thing she put out last night, which basically kind of – does she really think that American people are this ignorant to say that I told the State Department they can get whatever emails you want.
We know that you're saying you can have emails that I will give to you off my personal email,
personal server in my private home. So again, that's the difference between people who are always looking to blame others, find excuses, dismiss the truth, as opposed to the honor,
integrity, and the character that we're raised with in
the military.
Well, okay.
So that brings up another question.
We've got a lot of presidential candidates swirling around, not many on the Democratic
side, although I suspect this week there are a lot of governors and former governors thinking
themselves, you know, maybe I should do it.
But on the Republican side, we've got a lot of very strong candidates, a lot of great
records, but we don't have anybody right now running on a national security ticket.
We don't have anybody right now running on a military ticket.
We don't have anybody right now running who reminds us of Colonel Allen West.
So my question really is, what's Colonel Allen West going to be doing?
Well, I'm the president and CEO for the National Center of Policy Analysis down here in Dallas.
So I am doing the best that I can to focus on policy solutions.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know what I'm asking.
Well, I know what you ask.
Look, I don't sit and try to move the chess pieces of my life.
I gave my life to Christ back in 1980 as a young freshman.
Doesn't mean that I'm perfect, but I'm trying to do the best I can.
And I think that, you know, God will position you where He wants you to be in life
and where He can best utilize you and your talents and your skills.
And I'm just going to be an obedient servant to God, and I will always be here for my country. I do believe that there
are two preeminent things that any presidential candidate should talk about. That's economic
security and national security, and pretty much everything falls under those two topic areas.
It was very disconcerting that in the last 2012 election that neither the sitting president or candidates for president have ever served in the military.
The most important title for a president of the United States of America is commandant-in-chief.
And I think that when you look at the speech that was given by Prime Minister Netanyahu before the joint session of Congress this week, he's a former IDF airborne commando. When you look at General Al-Sisi and the way that he responded to the beheadings of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians, he was a former army general.
When you look at King Abdullah and the way that he responded to ISIS burning alive his Jordanian pilots, he's an American trained special forces officer and a combat helicopter pilot as well. So there's something about, you know,
those who have, you know, worn the uniform that understand how you have to face your enemies
that the American people need to kind of maybe be reminded about.
Well, surely, Colonel West, here's the problem, though. People look upon the examples that you've
given and say, ah, those are people steeped in a militaristic and nationalistic perspective. And we see where that's gotten us. The great thing about Obama
is that he's multinational. He's unilateral. He's supranational. He's a community organizer.
And believes that there are better ways, preferably through diplomacy, to do this,
even if it means the American interests themselves should suffer. And after six years of that,
a lot of people are starting to think
that maybe perhaps the president doesn't have first in his heart the interests of America,
but better some perfect transnational progressive future.
You know, the liberals found themselves positioned on the floor a couple of weeks ago
when Rudy Giuliani was saying what he said about the president.
And I'll ask you, does Barack Obama love America?
You know, if you love something, why would you want to fundamentally transform it?
I mean, that's my response, and that's exactly what he said in 2008.
So what is so bad about this great constitutional republic?
What is so bad about the exceptional nature of America and what we have done here in 238 years that had to be changed?
And when you come back and you talk about this whole militaristic thing or have you,
you know, well, I guess it's better to have, you know, a president that leans over on an
off mic moment and says, you know, tell Vladimir after my reelection, I'll have more flexibility.
Maybe we should hand out more little yellow toy boxes called a reset button.
This is what happens when you have an individual that they can win a
popularity contest. I mean, that'd be fine if we were running, you know, prom queen or prom king,
but we're talking about the leader of the free world. We're talking about someone who should
have the commanding presence to be able to stand up, as Ronald Reagan said, Mr. Gorbachev, tear
down this wall and unlock the, you know, the indomitable
spirit of freedom and liberty all across the region that had not known it for some decades.
So that is my response to, I guess, both of the points that you just brought out.
You know, if you love, you know, if you love your wife, I don't think you're going to go
home and tell your wife I need to fundamentally change you.
Right.
Colonel Peter Robinson here.
One last question.
How do you like Texas?
You know, I just told someone this morning that I am now a believer in climate change because, you know, in moving from Florida to Texas, the climate did change.
Last night we had snow and ice, and it is freaking cold.
So, you know, if there's one thing, I kind of miss those 75-degree temperatures in January.
But, you know, my last duty assignment was Fort Hood, Texas.
And I'm a graduate of the University of Tennessee, and I often tell people the story of Davy Crockett,
who, you know, upon losing his congressional reelection, said, you all can go to hell. I'm going to Texas.
There's a great bond between, you know, that sense of the Tennessee volunteers and the state of Texas.
And so many people are coming here to Texas because they're getting it right as far as, you know,
providing the right type of atmosphere for economic growth, individual prosperity. And the world's largest military base is right here in Texas at Fort Hood.
The energy security and the energy opportunity that has been provided here,
we need to expand that.
So, you know, having...
Can you feel it?
Does Texas feel different?
Does Texas feel different?
Oh, absolutely.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
I mean, and that's why you have Toyota headquarters moving from California to Texas. Yeah. I mean, that's why you have all I need is moving from California to Texas.
Yeah. Oh, gee.
OK, Colonel, just just keep an eye out for a quarter of an acre.
That's really all I need in case anything gets worse here in California.
I tell you what, you better you better come on before they institute the exit tax out there in California. Oh, right.
Is that where they actually are going to have somebody at the border like they used to check you for produce and vegetables and the rest of it,
and they'll just be there to exact their fee before you are allowed to leave the state?
Your papers, please. It would be good if they put those people on the southern border.
Right.
No money there.
Right.
They wouldn't generate the revenue.
We thank you so much for your time, Colonel West, and we look forward to having you on the podcast.
All the pleasure.
Thanks for having me.
Great.
Thank you, guys.
Thank you.
Thank you.
It's funny.
I've got to say we see him on the cruise.
And he's a tough guy.
This guy is a serious military-bearing figure.
Great shape and all that stuff.
And then you sort of talk
to him and he's the he's sweet and funny and kind of casual and like you kind of forget that at least
i forget that he could probably snap me in half with a cup of coffee unspilled in one hand
and what did you do exactly to provoke that reaction well just being me you know did you
get a little glint in his eye where you said, I'm choking back the desire perhaps?
Yeah, I see that glint in a lot of people, so I'm used to it.
Well, I'm prepared for those things because having seen enough James Bond movies, I know that if, for example, I am trying to keep those flyaway hairs in place, a little spray, all I have to do is to light the aerosol and I have an instant torch right there, which is why I never go around the house without either having a knife,
an aerosol can, a lit smoke
or a Zippo or something like that, because you
never know. And the other thing you have to learn, of course,
is how to use common household bathroom tools
to slit the throat of anybody who's come up behind you
from ISIS to do harm
to you. Now, if anybody wanted to
try that to me, they wouldn't get very
far at all because I would just whip right around
and use my Harry's blade in a manner in which it was not designed for.
It's such a great blade.
I would probably be disappointed because as long as I've been using these things, I haven't
cut myself yet.
How can something this sharp, this good, not cut my face?
I've walked away from other blade experiences looking like I put my head in a
sack with a rabid ferret.
And I got difficult parts to shave, too.
I got a dimple. Trying to shave
inside a dimple is like trying to paint a golf
ball after it's gone down the cup.
I got a jawline to go around sometimes
that has tasked even the most
cleverly made blades, but I've never cut
myself with a Harry's. How about that?
Well, give yourself the opportunity to see how well they
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Now, they cut out the middleman, so you don't have to go to
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No, no, no.
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And speaking of go-go now,
James, I think you have to go, do you not?
I do, in fact.
You're going to a ceremony.
I'm going to a ceremony.
They're having the ribbon cutting of our new building downtown where we're going to be moving.
And I get to see which little veal pen I'm going to spend the rest of my career, probably.
Your tiny little shoebox.
Until I'm dragged up, scruff of my neck, given a gold watch and pushed out the door or the window, depending on how I'm doing with management.
So I leave you both in the capable hands of each other, so to speak.
That's an image that probably I didn't want to put in everybody's mind, but there you go.
It's out there.
There we go.
Also, folks, remember, Harrys.com.
Plugged in at the end.
Say hello to J-Pod for me.
I'll see you later.
Bye.
Come back.
Come back.
I can't.
I don't know how it works.
Exactly right.
I don't know how to – thank God he's already done the segues.
I don't have to come up with any.
So Peter, since we have a little moment here to talk about politics, should we talk about politics?
Sure.
Obviously bad week for Hillary Clinton.
Who was it a good week for?
Who was it a good week for?
I believe it was a good week for the Republicans in the Senate.
They're in a big fight with the president.
Listen, I was in Washington about 10 days ago.
And what was very striking, there was a dinner.
There were a number of senators there.
They were all good guys, all on our side.
And they were all speaking off the record.
So I have to be careful what I say.
But there was a sense of a growing, and I think this is the correct term for it.
I don't believe this is melodramatic,
constitutional crisis. The president was going to cut a deal with Iran. Everybody feels certain
that that is in the works, that Iran was going to take the deal because they know they will never
get a better chance than with Obama right now. And then the Senate of the United States is going to
be unable to accept the deal.
Everything else Barack Obama has done, what he's done to the economy, the regulations,
the taxes, that can be peeled back. What he's done in foreign policy, it'll take longer,
but that can be repaired. If Iran gets placed on a direct path to a nuclear capability,
that will be irreversible. And the Republicans in the Senate believe they have to oppose it in any way they can. If the president were to send it to the Senate for a vote, it would
be voted down and we would be done with it. Well, we voted down. It's got to pass by two thirds.
It would not pass by two thirds. It would be voted down. In fact, it would, it would,
I believe it would likely lose by the margin of
two-thirds because we have some Democrats on the record as very, very, very dubious already.
The most outspoken critic right now is the senator from New Jersey.
Bob Menendez. That's exactly right. But of course, Barack Obama has already made it clear that he
doesn't intend to send it to the Senate. And then we enter into uncharted territory with regard to historical precedent where members of the Senate and pretty quickly would be my guess and it was certainly the guess in the room that evening.
Republican candidates for president would begin to have to suggest that they would consider this agreement an agreement binding only on Barack Obama and Iran
and not on Barack Obama's successor, that they would begin to have to say that if they were
elected president, they would re-examine this deal and they would repudiate it if they felt
necessary. And that is something new in American history where people running for office, excuse
me, it's not completely unprecedented.
When McClellan ran against Lincoln for president, McClellan was saying, I'm going to end the civil war.
I will discontinue Lincoln's most profound and solemn policy.
I think it's fair to say that when Mondale ran against Reagan, he said he would change – at that point, the most important piece of American foreign policy there was, which was our posture towards the Soviet Union.
The military buildup.
That's exactly right.
Now, speaking of all this, we actually do – we are joined by someone who – by John Podoritz.
John!
I do the GLOB podcast.
John, just as a background, he was not convinced that Netanyahu's speech to Congress was
a good idea. And then after the speech, he changed his mind. I just full disclosure, I have not
changed my mind. I still think it was a highly risky move that was maybe – where the timing was maybe bad.
But I'm interested to hear John's thoughts.
Hey, John.
Welcome.
Hey, guys.
You're on with Peter Robinson and me.
And so I just sort of set it up.
I said earlier you were expressing misgivings about Netanyahu's speech, about the timing of it and whether it was the
right thing to do. And then after the speech, you said, hey, I was wrong. It was a slam dunk.
Right. Well, I mean, it was a very risky move because had it not been a slam dunk,
it could have been a real disaster. And instead, he really pulled it off. It was a sensational address.
It kind of rocked the defenders of the president and the president on his heels and gave some real momentum to the effort to stop this horrendous deal if in fact the Iranians sign it.
Well, Peter has just sketched out – you weren't on yet.
But Peter just sketched out a path by which this thing gets trashed by the Senate.
But whatever the deal is, the Senate – Peter thinks almost two-thirds are going to vote against it.
And it's going to be a real black eye and a huge humiliation
for a sitting president.
I think everybody on the call – no one on this call is going to shed any tears for that.
But what happens if this momentum that you see and the enthusiasm you see and the slam
dunk you see two, three, four, five, six weeks, seven weeks, eight weeks from now,
whenever it happens, if it dissipates and Obama people have had eight weeks to reconfigure and repackage and rename the
provisions in this treaty.
They're very good at this, by the way.
They are good at doing this.
That's why we have Obamacare.
Well, there are two aspects of this.
We have Obamacare because they had 60 votes in the Senate. So I mean – of the American people oppose it, oppose the notion of – excuse me, 81 percent of the American people oppose the notion that in 10 years, the Iranians get the bomb.
Right.
So the fact is that the Senate has to look at that.
The Democrats in the Senate has to look at that. The Democrats in the Senate have to look at that.
Majorities of Democrats are opposed to the terms of the deal as they have been laid out in these leaks and indeed by the president in an interview to Reuters.
So he is swimming upstream against public opinion in the first place.
So how he repackages it, you can try to put lipstick on
a pig, but if the terms are all there and the pig is a pig, you can put lipstick on it, but people
already know it's a pig. So that's the problem that he faces. And the real question is going to face Senate Democrats, right? He needs to override his veto of the certain passage of one
of these two bills in the Senate or both. Thirteen Democrats have to vote with the Republicans,
assuming all the Republicans vote. There are already five or six Democrats who are certain to vote to override.
So that leaves five or six more.
And the question is if you're running in 16, if you're in a purple state, how are polls in your own district. I mean I don't see – there is a – as we being oldish men know, there is precedent for the Senate in control of the Democratic Party by the way to reject a bad treaty. I mean, in 1979, the Senate rejected the SALT treaty with it. Now, this is and you know,
what Obama's trying to do is do an end around and say, this is not a treaty. It's just a deal. He
has the right to put it forward. So there are these two different pieces of legislation, which
I guess Peter talked about. So that to me, that's go ahead. I didn't get a chance to talk, but just
sketch out those two pieces, John, that's important for listeners to grasp. OK. So there are two pieces.
One is called Menendez-Corker and one is called Menendez-Kirk.
So Menendez-Corker essentially forces the president to put the deal through the consideration of the Senate simply as a matter of law.
And as I understand it, Menendez-Kirk defunds the deal if it goes through.
So Menendez-Kirk says whatever money it takes to oversee this deal, including lifting sanctions – and Menendez-Kirk is also a new sanctions bill.
So it should be given the right to consider passage.
Defunding the aspects of the deal that the Americans have to pay for and imposing new sanctions on the
Iranians. Okay. So it's dead, right? I mean, Peter, what could go wrong? Well, the president
will say, sure. I think it's pretty clear how maybe I'm mistaken. But as I understand it from
my discussions in Washington 10 days ago now, it's been a couple of days there, John. Everybody's expecting these things to pass
and then to be vetoed. And the president will make a constitutional argument. This is not a treaty.
I am not required to send it up to the Hill. And it's very interesting to me that all of you
Republicans who ordinarily stick up for the powers of commander of chief, the vigorous president,
are now trying to tie me and bind me and my successors.
It would be a terrible blah, blah, blah.
So he'll try to create some open running space.
But the point is that Congress will have gone on record as saying two things.
One, we asked to be involved in this.
We tried to make it necessary as a matter of law for you to involve us in this.
You refused. Two,
there is no mistake that the Senate of the United States is by a substantial majority opposed to
this deal. And if necessary, they'll move a resolution, a sense of the Senate resolution,
which is not subject to a presidential veto, to get that on the record. The question then becomes,
what do Republican presidential candidates begin to do? And the record. The question then becomes, what do Republican presidential
candidates begin to do? And the hope among the senators with whom I spoke is that they will very
quickly say, this is a deal that's a one-off between Barack Obama and the negotiators in Iran.
It is not binding on his successors. This does not rise to the level of a solemn and permanent agreement that binds the United States of America.
And if I am elected president, I will immediately reexamine every aspect of this deal and repudiate it in whole if necessary so that the whole thing just begins to break down.
That nobody feels comfortable doing.
Nobody's happy about it. It would establish a nasty, well,
that may be the wrong word, but it would establish an eyebrow-raising precedent at least.
And there we get back into what Barack Obama has been doing again and again and again,
which is forcing people who oppose him to take actions that are unprecedented or permit him to
take actions that are unprecedented. It makes everybody nervous, but that seems to be the best hope because Iran cannot be permitted to get a nuclear weapon.
Right. Now, here's what's interesting, because all of that is exactly right. And then the question
goes to the Republican candidates can do it or they can't do it, or Hillary Clinton can say
something or they can't say something.
The fact is that more than 80 percent of the American people oppose a 10-year sunset.
They've been asked in polls. They're asked this Fox News poll. They oppose it. That's a huge cover.
That's a huge problem for anybody, Republican or Democrat, who would want to oppose this.
So, John, wouldn't this suggest now – I mean I'm just wargaming this out, right?
So what's happening now?
Do you think that John Kerry is going back into the room and saying, hey, listen, I spoke to my manager and we can't get you that deal?
I mean is that what he's saying?
No.
Won't they come back with a deal that has different optics so they could say, oh yeah, no, no, it's not that deal that you thought.
No, because this is not a negotiation between a car dealer and a buyer. United States and an apocalyptic millenarian regime that has written into its constitution the notion that America is the great Satan.
They have a different perspective on this negotiation from us.
That's to say the least.
OK, I accept that.
So Khamenei is not sitting there saying, boy, if I really hold out, I'm going to get a much
better deal.
What's happening is they're sitting there and they're sitting there and they're sitting there and we keep moving and we keep moving toward them.
Do you think the Iranians know the best deal they're ever going to get?
They're going to get from this president.
But again, you're thinking about this as though they are – they have a goal comparable to our goal.
That is to say that what they want to do is figure out how to game – how to work within the system as best as possible.
They have as an ideological first principle that we are the source of evil in the world.
But Rob, they already have – in my judgment, they can read American politics as well as the three of us can read American politics.
And any deal that Barack Obama makes is going to be extremely contentious here in the United States and may very well not stick.
Deal, no deal, bleh.
What they already have what they want, what they wanted was for the sanctions to be lifted so they could start moving oil, importing, exporting and beginning to rebuild their economy.
As far as they're concerned, the longer we yap, yap, yap at the negotiating table, fine, no problem because they have what they wanted right now.
We've already given them what they wanted.
Right.
John, do you buy that?
Pretty much. I mean what I think is that we keep looking at this and Kerry, who is a hapless, silly man as far as I can tell, whose idea of diplomacy is to say I'm your friend.
Can I interrupt you for one minute there?
John Kerry.
I know we're talking about this series.
There's a lot of Botox and plastic surgery there, right?
I mean there is, right?
Or is he ill?
Because I keep seeing him on TV and he does not look like John Kerry.
He looks like John Kerry with collagen implants.
He looks like if the Hulk weren't green and lost about 200 pounds
he looks like there are like
four shifting boulders
you know like
rock formations on his face
I'm not trying to make fun of it
if he's sick
I honestly don't mean to get
ad hominem
but you know
I don't mean to get ad hominem. But – But? Wow. For somebody who doesn't need to. You did a pretty good job.
I don't mean to get ad hominem.
But he looks like his face is covered in putty.
Yeah, that's what I mean.
Like his grandchildren put silly putty all over his face before he went to testify before Congress.
Is it possible that the Iranian negotiators in Vienna, they see him come in, they think, who is this person with the – this man, this vain man with his plastic surgery?
No doubt.
I mean look, we know that they have contempt for us.
So we know that they hate us and we know that they have absolutely – that their MO – I mean this is the other joke about all this is we'll sign this deal.
Sanctions – it passes and it goes through and they have a 10-year sunset clause and the sanctions are dropped and all of that, right?
And they don't abide by international agreements. You know, if they're ready to break out, if they – they're not going to – they're going to withhold centrifuges that – they're not going to degrade their uranium.
I mean what's going to happen is we're going to sign the deal and then for two, three years, we're going to hear from the IAEA that they're not holding to it and that they haven't destroyed this and they haven't de-enriched that and they haven't done the other thing.
And then like the North Koreans, one day they will announce that they have gone nuclear and that they have a weapon.
If that is the actual most plausible, least sort of most likely scenario,
it's not that they're going to hold to the deal and then wait until 2026 to go nuclear.
John, 12 days from today, there will be an election in Israel.
Will Bibi Netanyahu be prime minister when the election closes?
Well, not when it closes.
I mean, he'll be because he is the prime minister.
And after the election, the question then will be who is given the right to make the
coalition to form the next government.
Who was given that?
Will he win the election?
He will probably win the election, yes.
I mean the simple% of the seats
necessary to make a governing coalition. So they might each get 23 or 24 seats.
But the fact is that the natural coalition will end up being on Bibi's side. That doesn't mean
by the way – look, he had that government and it collapsed so he will
end up if this goes the way it's going weaker than he was when he went in i mean okay so so
that's the worst situation the speech he gave to the u.s congress he gave a 10 15 in the morning
which was prime time in israel how did it do back home for him?
Well, it did pretty well. But the simple fact of the matter is that there is nothing that he said in that speech that Israelis don't know, right? And there is nothing that anybody who has really
been following this issue for a long time doesn't know. So it wasn't fresh to them. It wasn't new to
them. And it was in English.
So did it matter that he got a lot of standing ovations?
Did it matter that it looked good?
Did it matter that he looked like a sort of regal figure and like a world leader?
Of course it mattered.
The first polls show a modest, very modest bump for him.
But it's modest.
It's not like game-changing.
So let me ask you this.
Next 12 days, what do we look for for him but it's modest it's not like game changing so let me ask you this next 12 days what do we look for for him signs of you know uh emerging whatever and what do we look for
from the obama administration which right now i think is is probably playing the best card they've
got which is simply to play possum right they're going to wait and see what are they going to be
doing anything in the next 12, 15, 14 days?
Well, I mean at some point they could announce that an agreement has been reached. But as far as we know in the United States, all the action is next week going to be in the Senate because Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, is evidently going to bring up the Menendez-Corker bill that demands Senate – that demands a role for the Senate after the passage of any deal.
He's doing that because he intuits that there is momentum on most assuredly help Netanyahu in the election because
what he will have said is we all – 75 percent, 80 percent of Israelis are terrified about
the bomb and he will say, look, things are bad between me and Obama and the Obama administration
doesn't like the United States.
But I went to Washington and the policy and Washington, our friends in Washington are now going to try to make sure
this doesn't happen. And that can only help him. But John, what about the other way around?
If Bibi loses that election and an outright loss is unlikely, as you said, he'll be weakened.
That's very complicated for Americans to understand
the parliamentary system, the coalition system in Israel. So over here, if something happens
that can be portrayed as a loss, why wouldn't Barack Obama and the entire administration say,
see, look, even Israelis aren't with that guy. Wouldn't that be a terrible setback over here?
Perhaps. But I mean, you know, the fact of the matter is that the head of the opposition said he would have said nothing different in the speech.
No, but I'm just saying it is Obama's effort to isolate this as a fight between him and Netanyahu, right?
He doesn't like Netanyahu. He loves Right. He doesn't like Netanyahu.
He loves Israel.
He doesn't like Netanyahu.
Netanyahu is bad.
This has had an inadvertent – the inadvertent effect of elevating Netanyahu who is the prime minister of a country of eight million people the size of New Jersey to the status of the world's most important politician outside of the president of the United States, which is insane of Obama
and totally stupid.
However, having said that, there's method in that madness, right?
Because he says, look, I don't hate Israel.
I just have real differences with Netanyahu.
But what – so if he defeats Netanyahu, he will be very happy and he will be thrilled
and it will be wonderful and Netanyahu will lose. First of all, it will take two months for Netanyahu, he'll be very happy and he'll be thrilled and it will be wonderful and Netanyahu will lose.
The thing is first of all, it will take two months for Netanyahu to lose.
There's going to be – they have six weeks.
Whoever gets the right to form the next coalition will have 45 days to do so.
So we won't even know what the circumstances are. And even if the opposition, you know, scores a little better
and the president of Israel, who is a figurehead figure, nonetheless says they can be the ones to
try to form a coalition, it's highly unlikely they can make a coalition stick,
unless something really changes over the next 12 days.
So, I mean, just because we got to wrap this up, this looks like – what percentage
would you say, John, and I'm going to ask you, Peter, what percentage is this going
to be humiliating for Barack Obama?
This is kind of a John McLaughlin thing.
On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being absolute abject humiliation, 1 being the opposite of that.
Well, I would say it's at least a six.
If the veto is overridden, it's a nine.
I'd say, yeah, roughly what John says, six, seven in that range.
The whole country – people forget the Republican victory wasn't just in the Senate and it wasn't just in the House. If you look down at the lower levels, the state houses and even the local government, the country has moved against this guy in a very large way.
And if you look at Bob Menendez and some of the statements members of the senator saying he's already beginning to move into lame duck territory.
Prominent Democrats are making the calculation.
This guy will be gone in 22 months. And I have four, five, six more years to run.
I need to figure out how I'm going to live up here on this hill after he's – I think things are moving against Barack Obama overall.
Can I give you one way in which they're not moving against Obama?
The thing that could be –
We're trying to end a cheerful note.
No, no, no.
You're going to like this.
OK.
OK.
Which is the thing that would really spike – would really be like a spike of the football against him would be if Hillary Clinton came out and said she did not support the deal.
Remember, 81 percent of the public is opposed to it, right?
She's got the email. This email scandal now makes that entirely impossible because she cannot do anything, anything to alienate the White House in any way, shape or form.
They now hold her future in their hands.
If they – they're already – last night and this morning they were – as we're speaking, they were distancing themselves from her.
They don't know what's going on, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
They know that the smoke is probably fire.
The price is going to be come out and support this Iran deal.
That could either be the price or just her silence.
Oh, man.
Well, either way, that's fine.
I'll take that too. That is juicy and delicious. Thank you, silence. Oh, man. Well, either way, that's fine. I'll take that too.
That is juicy and delicious.
Thank you, John.
Yeah, you're welcome.
Hey, we got to wrap this up.
Before we do, John, you said on a podcast, on the GLOP podcast, that you were a fan of
The Daily Shot.
Is that still true?
I love The Daily Shot.
I get all these newsletters in my email box.
I get three that I read each morning without fail.
There is Jim Garrity's from National Review.
There is Carl Cannon's from Real Clear Politics and there is The Daily Shot.
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Thank you for listening.
John, always a pleasure.
I'll talk to you at GLOP very soon.
Peter, next week?
Next week, boys.
Record at GLOP soon, would you please?
There are those of us who are – our fingers are starting to shake.
We're getting the withdrawal symptoms, all right?
Will do.
You got it.
Thanks, guys.
Take care.
Well, I won't back down. No, I won't back down. You can stand me up at the gates of hell, but I won't be turned around.
And I'll keep this world from dragging me down.
Gonna stand my ground, and I won't back down.
Hey, baby, there ain't no easy way out.
Hey, I will stand my ground and I won't back down.
Ricochet.
Join the conversation. Back down. Ricochet.
Join the conversation.
Well, I know what's right.
I got just one life.
In a world that keeps on pushing me around, but I stand my ground and I won't back down.
Hey, baby, there ain ground and I won't back down.
No, I won't back down.