The Ricochet Podcast - Twirling Twirling Into The Future

Episode Date: January 19, 2024

One caucus down and it appears the whole GOP primary is decided. Thankfully when you get a guest like Henry Olsen (EPPC senior fellow and host of the must-listen Beyond the Polls podcast) everything stays fresh and interesting. Henry has thoughts on what's left of this Republican primary along with the mess in the D camp; he runs us through campaigns we're scratching our heads at, forgotten about—or would like to forget about; and he swats away many of the overconfident predictions about how a Trump/Biden rematch will shake out. James, Rob and Peter applaud Javier Melei and the great free market that wants to spread good news; plus they say their piece about inclement weather and wonder what time it really is in New York.

I know that's not you, Peter Growler. Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. It's the Ricochet Podcast with Rob Long and Peter Robinson. I'm James Lylex, and today we talk to Henry Olson, who knows what about elections? Everything. So let's have ourselves a podcast. It's non-liquid. That's my take. You have more non-liquid gold. They said, what is that? I said corn. They said, we love that idea. You know, that's a pretty cool thought, isn't it? That's

a nickname in its own way, but we came up with a new word for a new couple of words for corn. All these Republican candidates in the primary are trying to beat Donald Trump. I'm still the only person to ever beat Donald Trump. I'm looking forward to it again, for the good of this country. Welcome, everybody. It's the Ricochet Podcast, number 675. I'm James Lilex here in Minneapolis, where it's zero. Oh, we've climbed a degree. Nice round zero. We have no degrees at all. We have no whatsoever. And Peter in sunny Clement, California, Rob Long in busy, exciting Gotham, where I was reading today about real estate

prices. Yikes. We'll get to that perhaps in a second. Gentlemen, welcome. How was your day going? It is not actually sunny and clement. It is clement by comparison with zero. Let's see, what's the temperature here? It's now 51 degrees. That's clement, I suppose, by comparison with Minneapolis. But later today and lasting until Sunday or Monday, this new thing, I never even heard the term until last year, as I recall. An atmospheric river is about to swirl its way over northern California. This is what they used to call a rainstorm, I believe. And my wife heard the words atmospheric river, still new to her as well, and said, you, you, pointing to me, up on the roof now. I had to clear out the gutters because here in California, they don't get used that often and all kinds of detritus piles up.

So whatever Donald Trump may have done in Iowa, I feel as though my accomplishment yesterday is even greater. I got up the roof and cleared the gutters. My wife's line was, if you fall and break your back, I'll come out there and finish you off myself. And I did not fall. I cleared the gutters. My wife's line was, if you fall and break your back, I'll come out there and finish you off myself. And I did not fall. I cleared the gutters. I'm ready for the atmospheric river, whatever that turns out to be. So there, you're not the only one who talks about, who can talk, who has a reason to talk about the weather, James, in Minneapolis. Well, I'm glad to hear that you're getting this atmospheric weather dump. That's great. You need the rain. Everybody always needs the rain. Farmers need the rain. Rob, we're not going to talk about the weather in New York because you're all indoors.

It's snowing. It's snowing, really? It's snowing right now. I'm looking at the snow. Is it really? Yeah, it's snowing. I mean, it's not sticking so much. I mean, it's dusting the trees.

May I open a little opportunity for you to wax poetic, Rob? We just have to admit that Manhattan in the snow, not two days after the snow when it all turns to slush, but in the snow, Manhattan is... It's pretty magic. And I think, I mean, it's not heavy enough, I don't think, yet. I mean, it's supposed to snow for the rest of the day.

And I love it. Everybody hates it. I love it. But there's that moment in New York, it sometimes happens at night if it snows all day, and then people just, you know, they give up, basically, stay in. And then there's that moment in New York that sometimes happens at night if it snows all day and then people just, you know, they give up basically, stay in. And then there's this moment when you see people out walking around and the city is dead quiet because the snow is everything. And everybody's kind of looking at everybody else like, wow, this is, this really happened. This is really happening. And there's something great about it.

Something great about uh this the city that's not you know that's supposed to like shrug everything off and just keep going just suddenly everybody stops and says wait a minute snow and i'm not gonna yeah when i mentioned real estate this morning i saw a story that uh black star blackstone or black rock or black what you know one of those guys spent 600 million million on 740 Broadway, and now they're trying to dump it off for $125 million or something like that. Sunk a lot of money into it, renovated it, 1950 building.

It's got 7% occupancy rate. Really? Yes. A lot of these buildings in New York that were built post-war, they either need to be upgraded, they have, or there just isn't the demand. The only reason I mention it is because 740 is actually, even though it looks like a rather banal standard issue skyscraper, it worked its way into popular culture because it used to be the headquarters for the

Mutual of New York. And Rob, of course, you know what their name was, right? Mutual of New York? Yeah. M-O-N-Y. There was a big sign at the top of the building that had the name of the company, M-O-N-Y. And if you're going to be a bank, you know, money is pretty good for, you know, it's pretty close. So one day there was a songwriter who was trying to come up with a nonsense phrase along the lines of hang on, sloopy, or something like that. And he couldn't come up with it. He looked out the window. And he saw that sign and named it looked out the window and he saw that

sign and named it put it in a song moni moni by tommy james and the chandels moni moni which later are you kidding really you have listen i was i never knew what moni stood for nobody does but that i have to wait until this late date in my life, James Lilacs, to find out that that sign that I saw as a kid growing up stood for Mutual of New York. It's actually interesting. It's the same in New York and Manhattan as it is sort of around the country, that the big, heavy corner buildings in small towns, a lot of them were some of the greatest ones were designed by Louis Sullivan in the Midwest, are all banks. Yeah. And you want to project. And there was a time when the New York Life building,

which is the clock tower now, which is on Madison Square, it was important for them. I think they employed dozens of people just to make sure that the clock was always exactly right. Because the idea was that, you know, you've got to trust your life insurance company, right?

You mean Met, don't you? Yeah, but the clock doesn't work. Go ahead. You mean the MetLife building, don't you? No, no, the MetLife building is where you'll find it. No, downtown, farther downtown. Downtown, on Madison Square, it's the New York Life. They built this giant kind of uh collection of

buildings have a giant clock tower at the top with the gold triangular it's not a yeah but it's a cap sort of you you'll know you know it james you know my i read a madison square and it's got to be accurate all the time right because like you're giving them their money and you got to hope that you're there but they're taking care of it so that they'll pay out when you're dead to your you know your uh your descendants your beneficiaries um so they they the accuracy was very important and of course the minute that stopped um everybody shrugged and said ah it's fine the the the clock is now always wrong and nobody cares but it's sort of a it's sort of a sad sign of like um you know the the neatened up corporate uptight culture that you used to demand of your insurance company

was that the day the music by the way could we schedule an entire podcast a special edition because i know that james who knows all mysteries concerning popular culture, will be able to take us through Miss American Pie and give us everything that it means. Because, right? Rob has just given us the real day the music died. The music died the day the New York Life building. New York Life building. You've got to watch on.

A minute here, a minute there. What difference does it make? It's the Metropolitan Life. It's not the New York Life building. I'm convinced of this. I'm absolutely convinced. It's not the one with the gold top. Yeah.

That's what I'm picturing. The New York Life has the gold top. The MetLife building is the one by Napoleon Lebrun that has a huge clock on it, 1910, 19-something or other, and it's got next to it a 1930s addition that was supposed to be this incredibly tall building in New York. It's gorgeous, amazing, 60-story building. It's where, it's where Griffin Dunn was dumped off at the end of After Hours. It's where he worked. I'm convinced of it. We're gonna have to go. Maybe, I mean, right now the MetLife building is the old Pan Am building. Right, right, but it's not, right, it was Pan Am, then it the MetLife building is the old Pan Am building. Right, right.

But it's not, right, it was Pan Am, then it was MetLife, then it was, it's something else now. It's got something else. So New York Life has a kind of conical golden tower. Right. And it's on Madison Square. But I don't associate a clock with that. No, Metropolitan Life has the big clock. That's the one.

Look, who's the real New Yorker here? How can I conjure this up? Exactly. I just Googled it because I want to make sure. The New York Life Building stands 60 feet tall. It's on the bottom of Madison Avenue. It has a gold top and it has a clock tower next to it. It does have a clock tower.

I think it does. Maybe it's not that building, but it's the clock tower. Well, look up Metropolitan Life Tower, 1 Madison Avenue. I just looked it up here. Tell me if that's what you're thinking about one madison we can defer this to our listeners they will think for sure in the comments section absolutely clear us up and correct us anyway news of the world but excuse me i i excuse me james you're right oh okay good i didn't want to lose my so wait a minute which building is if we're clearing

up now let's clear it up because it's not cleared up until robinson understands which where's the clock you're talking about the clock is on the metlife insurance company tower which is not there anymore which is the old pan am building no no that forget that part that's that's the that's a different thing now yeah um that is that is met life that is the met life building now but the old days of one that's what is on madison square and just up the street on 26th street is yes right is the old met life you're like okay no is the new york life building but it's still the the inaccurate the the inaccurate by detail point i was making was that a life insurance company felt the need to have an absolutely accurate clock because they wanted to project button-dubness. And now they're like, eh, we don't care.

No, I would rather lose that greater, more important philosophical point in pursuit of a narrow anal retentive correction on the name of the building. No, Rob, you're right. No, but I mean, it actually, but you'd also rather have your insurance company make sure that their clocks are right all the time. Yes, you would. You would. How you do one thing is how you do everything, as they say.

And everybody knew that building, too, because it was on the back of these pamphlets. They printed these pamphlets by the billions, and they were all about infections, how to stop them at home, vitamins, the importance of sunshine, moving your bowels. And these things would be passed down by their agent. And they would all end up in the antique stores and in the places and drawers all across America.

But everybody knew that building. So, yes, it was important. Boys, producer Perry just sends a note saying that the man who knows more about American politics than James knows about the history of New York architecture, and that's saying something, is here. Well, then I should shut up, and we should get to him. Here we go. Henry. We welcome to the podcast Henry Olson, Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. He's the author of Working Class Republican and the co-author of The Four Faces of the Republican Party. And he's the host of Beyond the Polls, the Ricochet Audio Network's election podcast. Henry, welcome.

Hello. Hey. Well, go on, Peter. Could I start with two propositions for you, Henry? I very seldom am prepared for anything in my life, but I so revere you and your encyclopedic knowledge of American politics that I thought this through. And I have two propositions, and if you agree with both of them, then all of us can stop talking right now and go get a beer and a cigarette and start our weekends. Proposition number one, it's over. Donald Trump has the Republican nomination. Proposition number two, even when that man was at his most popular, when he was president, when the economy was growing, before COVID struck, he never broke 50%. His ceiling nationally is 46, 47%. So the second proposition is indictments or convictions

are going to start coming down his ceiling is going to drop to 41 42 he will lose the presidency both of those things are true and we know them already henry uh okay proposition one 95 true Henry? Okay. Proposition 1, 95% true. Oh, it is? Okay. There's a 5% chance that Nikki Haley can come through. Ron DeSantis is basically a dead man walking. He should be out before South Carolina unless he wants to go heavily into debt, which I doubt he wants to. Yeah, Nikki Haley's chance basically depends on an unprecedented mobilization of non-Republican voters. And the argument for that is, look what happened in Georgia in 2022. All the polls said that Brian Kemp, who Donald Trump was was trying to take out would win by 20 to 30 points he

won by 52 all the polls that brad raffensperger would be forced into a runoff he won over a majority why because turnout had traditionally been in the low 600 thousands and turnout was 1.2 million wow the polls missed half of the electorate so So if Nikki Haley can excite people or Donald Trump repulsion can incite people, there are enough states where there's no partisan registration or where independents can vote, like in New Hampshire, that one can imagine the polls being off. But that's a very slim chance. I can't say it's zero, but it's a very slim chance. Nicky Haley's campaign and Ron DeSantis' campaign, candidates themselves can become strangely delusional from moment to moment, in my experience. But there are professionals attached to both campaigns. They know the percentages you just stated. What's going on? Ron DeSantis is trying to run out the clock in an honorable fashion to position himself

for 2028. Nikki Haley is running for vice president. What's actually going on, do you suppose, to the professionals in both campaigns? Yeah, so it's unclear how many professionals are still involved with the Ron DeSantis campaign after the great purge of Jeff Roe. But I do think that what's happening is DeSantis finished second. And it would be very hard for somebody who finished second to say, actually, the candidate who finished third has a better shot than I do. But I think what's going to happen is he's going to get 5% or less in New Hampshire. Then he's going to go to the Nevada caucuses. And again, it's a caucus. It's not a primary. Nikki Haley is not on the ballot because Nevada has Nevada's Democrats wanted to have a primary. The Republicans want to have a caucus. And so there's going to be

a primary on Tuesday that won't award any delegates. And Nikki Haley is on the ballot there. But the Republicans said you can't be on both. And she chose to file for the primary, not the caucus. DeSantis and Trump chose to go for the delegates. So it's going to be a one-on-one. DeSantis has his one-on-one with Trump. The moment has arrived. And so what is Ron DeSantis?

But this is telling. This happens on February 8th. Where is Ron DeSantis spending his time? The primary in South Carolina on February 24th. He's not actually campaigning in the race that can give him momentum. So what happens if he loses by 45 points in New Hampshire and then he loses in Nevada by 40 points? Do you think he's going to have any money to go on in South Carolina on February 24th? Do you think he's going to be having any bull standing?

I think DeSantis will drop out between Nevada and South Carolina. And if DeSantis were serious, if I were a professional advising DeSantis, I'd say camp out in Las Vegas and attack Donald Trump. That's your chance. It's slim, but at least it's logical. What he's doing right now is, as you said, an honorable way to get out of the race and wind it down. You know, Haley, I think, has always been actually running for 2028. Is she running to be Trump's vice president?

I really have a hard time seeing Trump selecting her for a host of reasons. I'm told it's not zero, that there's elements of her that kind of, you know, he kind of likes feistiness. Well, she doesn't address the problem with Proposition 2. She doesn't bring back in suburban women who would tend to vote or who would at least be open to a Republican candidate if there were a normal Republican candidate, but who look at Donald Trump and say no. Haley doesn't soften his edges? Well, the question isn't whether Haley would be a good choice for him. The question is whether Haley is the person he'll pick. I never wrote this, but I was making an argument in private or semi-private in January of 2019

that Trump should dump Penceence and put haley on the ticket because i said what's your problem or january 2020 i said what's your what's trump's problem trump's problem is he pursued as a racist and a sexist how does he solve the problem he puts nicky haley on the ticket they got back to the pence people and they basically sent word that it would be nice that i not talk about that, which didn't, you know, I continued to talk about it because I thought it was true. My point is that that was when he should have done it. Now, post-January 6th, the argument for Haley is exactly what you said. The argument against Haley is, can you imagine Donald Trump ever being in a circumstance where the vice president, when the back is against the wall, would tell

the president no. I can't imagine Donald Trump wanting that. And I don't see how he would look at Nikki Haley and say that Nikki Haley would say, yes, sir, how high. So that's why I don't think Nikki Haley is going to be on the ticket. But as for Proposition 2, I don't agree with that. You don't? No, I do not um and the reason why is this is not a vote on donald trump this is a vote between two people who don't have majority support if this were a referendum on donald trump donald

trump would lose by 15 to 20 points uh if this were a referendum on joe biden he would lose by 15 to 20 points. If this were a referendum on Joe Biden, he would lose by 15 to 20 points. The problem is they'll be facing each other. And this is the what happens when the irresistible force meets the immovable object of loathed politicians. Well, the hilarity ensues. This is 2016 all over again. And what we know about 2016 is that the race was decided by the 18% of people who didn't like either candidate, that they broke late and they went back to the party that they preferred otherwise. So what we know is that somewhere around 20% of Americans don't like Biden and Trump. And these are the people who are telling... Only 20%? Don't like both of them.

That's the thing, is that 40% of Americans approve of Joe Biden. 42% of Americans like Donald Trump. So you've got this overlap where the overlap who, I don't like Biden and I don't like Trump, is actually pretty low. Got it. Because 75 to 80 percent of the people, depending on the polls, like one of them. And you tend not to have people. In 2016, there were 2 percent of the people liked Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

And I always joked, you know, I'd like to meet who these people are. I know living examples of virtually every sub-demographic in American politics. I have never met one of those 2%. It was Richard Epstein. Right. And there's probably 1% who approve of Biden and like Trump, or 2%. You know, there are 5% or 6% of Republicans who approve of Biden's job. So, you know, that's where you get 20, 22 percent who

overlap, don't like both of them. And these are the people who are saying when they're given a chance, oh, I'll vote for Cornel West. I'll vote for Robbie Kennedy. I'll vote for Jill Stein. And what happens is we know from just like in 2016, Gary Johnson at one point was at 10 or 11 percent of the polls. Jill Stein was at like 3 percent of the polls. The closer you get to Election Day, the more these people, just like with John Anderson in 1980, who at one point was at 20 percent of the polls. That was a I don't like Carter and I'm scared of Reagan. The closer you get to Election Day, people say you've got to pick between. I've got to pick between.

I've got to pick between. Well, with Ronald Reagan, we know that it was the last debate. Yes, it was the last debate. Six or seven days before the election, the people who were undecided said, okay, I'm going to go for Reagan. What we know is that it was literally the last weekend, and this is where I know this demographic

very well, because I literally know people who fall into all these categories. Did they decide on Saturday, oh my God, I can't throw my vote away. I've got to stop Hillary Clinton. Yes. Did they decide in the car on the way to the polling place? Did they decide in the polling booth? I can't do Gary Johnson. Yes. I know all of these people. This was going to happen again. And that's why I can't agree with you is that the other thing is I'm not convinced Trump will be convicted. Let's imagine a world where the first case that comes up is the case in the Southern District of Florida.

The jury pool, if you simply drew— But the Southern District of Florida is the documents case, is that right, Henry? Mar-a-Lago, yeah. Mar-a-Lago, okay. Here's the thing is, this is Trump. Forget the evidence, okay? Unless you're going, you know, my argument is that if you want to actually treat this as your judicial function, what you should do the presidential election, you cannot be on the jury. Because what we know is that if you voted in the presidential election, you have extremely strong feelings one way or another. They're not going to do that. You know, I think they should take, like I said, take anyone who voted in the presidential election out of the jury. Maybe you'll get a fair trial. Given that you won't, all you need

is one Trump loyalist to say, no way, no how, political witch hunt. He or she keeps quiet enough uh to get through um and you get a mistrial what if it's a mistrial rather than a conviction do you think that helps okay so so for so jack smith it's one thing to get indictments out of a grand jury seated in washington dc it is an entirely different matter to get 12 jurors to agree to convict in Florida. And this is why he wants the D.C. case to go first, because what's the jury pool in D.C.? It's 19 to 1 for Biden. Right. This is why Jack Smith wants the D.C. case to go first. That's why Jack Smith's, hurry, hurry we gotta go we gotta go we gotta go okay

so henry i have i have i'm just going to lob two more questions and you can ignore them honestly because i'm getting such dirty looks from rob and james no you're not oh no all right they enjoy listening to all they love you as much as i do and i know they want they have questions but i have two more questions all right and each one of them is going to involve a very, I'll try to keep it extremely brief, story. Story number one is Donald Trump's victory speech after Iowa. I have to confess, I had no intention of watching all of this, but I sat there and watched it, kind of entranced, because Donald Trump, he spoke for about 20 minutes. He spent the first 10 minutes thanking individuals by name and the final 10 minutes talking about bringing the country together, congratulating Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley on good campaign.

And I thought, oh my Lord, he's become a rational and working politician. This is what you do if you want to win. You thank people by name. You make them feel wonderful. You give them their glowing moment in the spotlight and then you swivel and talk about your big... It was as if he's decided he wishes to become president of the United States. Not an act of vengeance in the campaign, but a campaign to win and enact an agenda. I could be totally mistaken, but I thought to myself, if this man, if this Trump is the Trump we see between now and November,

this 47% ceiling is a relic of the past. He could break 50%, item one. Item two, a young friend of mine invited me to a fundraiser for Robert Kennedy Jr. I went somewhat with gritted teeth, and I, well, I'll just go to observe. He's very impressive, Henry. He worked the entire, it wasn't a big room, it was perhaps 60 people. He spoke to every person, he posed for photographs, he spoke for about 10 minutes, then spent 90 minutes on his feet taking one question after another. You had the feeling that he wasn't doing any spin, that the answers were fresh. He spoke, he didn't force them into the conversation, but he spoke from time to time, my father did this when my uncle did that. And even I, who believe me, I'm no Kennedy man, began to feel the mystic chords of memory. And he was uncategorizable. He talked about housing projects for the poor. And then he talked about inventing some kind of new T-bill, which is tied to a basket of

precious metals. So, we have a vast new social program, and we have a gold bug. I mean, he was just uncategorizable left to right. And I thought to myself, oh my goodness, the net effect is this is an honest man and he feels both fresh and deeply embedded in American history. This guy could take off, especially with younger voters. Okay. Trump and Kennedy, I will now not say another word. So with respect to Trump, he has shown these flashes before. What always happens is that he'll give a great speech, you know, like in the Warsaw speech or his acceptance speech or his victory speech in 2016 was conciliatory and nice. And then within 48 hours, he reverts to type. So, you know, of course, what's he doing in New Hampshire? He's bashing Nikki Haley, saying she's a rhino and a globalist and all of that stuff. I agree with you. If Donald

Trump could run a grown up campaign, Donald Trump would have won reelection and he could win election more easily again. The question is, can he sustain this? And, you know, we shall see, I suppose. On the second question, I think America, in theory, would like a part liberal, part conservative, fresh voice. I think that's part of what Trump's appeal originally was. He's now become a captive of his grievances and the conservative base, but that's not what he was originally. The question is, can Bobby Kennedy Jr. do that right now? All I can say is right now, he's drawing from people who dislike both candidates. What he has to start doing is

becoming the preferred candidate of people who like one or both of those candidates who say, I like Trump, but I prefer Bobby. I like Biden, but I prefer Bobby. Now, if I start to see that, then I'll think that maybe he can win. And it may very well be that your experience is indicative of that, that he'll be able to raise enough money to get on the ballots. I suspect he will, that he'll be able to be savvy enough to get some media attention. You know, the media will want to make this a two person race. Both conservative media and the mainstream media will want to do it. But local media will cover him. And that's something. We'll see.

Henry, I'm not hearing a lot of Dean Phillips excitement. And so I'm wondering if you're just waiting to spring this spoiler on us because this is what you really think is going to happen. He has Bill Ackman's support now. Yes, he does. As a matter of fact, as our paper reported, he dropped the DEI part of his platform and replaced it with some other words that didn't say the same thing after Ackman threw him a million. But he had an event in which nobody came. Nobody came. He just sort of sat there on the bed of a truck and dealt with the reporters and nobody else. So he's dead in the water, do you think?

Yeah, the thing is, Dean Phillips, what Dean Phillips is, is the person you vote for when you don't think, when you're a Democrat and you don't think Biden should run again. So for me, the thing that I'm looking for is not what does Dean Phillips get. The question is, what does Joe Biden get as a right hand candidate? What we know is that he that no matter where you poll, he's not polling much above 70 percent. Now, when Obama ran unopposed in a serious way, he was getting 88, 90 percent. He could dip below that in some areas that were, you know, blue-collar southern places like West Virginia or Oklahoma that were quickly, you know, the people who were registered Democrats were quickly leaving the

party. But other than that, he got 85, 88, 92 percent. You know, Trump got 90 percent plus. George W. Bush got 90 percent plus. If Joe Biden doesn't break 67% against Phillips, Marianne Williamson, and the host of nobodies who pay $200 to have their name listed on the New Hampshire ballot, which you can do. So there'll be like a list of nobodies, maybe Vermin Supreme, the guy with the. Right. Hey, wait, is it too late? It's only 200 bucks. It's too late, Peter. It's like nothing to get on the New Hampshire ballot. I want to write in Rob. Let's get him on the hands. Hey, wait, is it too late? It's only $200? It's too late, Peter. It's like nothing to

get on the New Hampshire ballot. I want to write in Rob. Let's get him on the ballot. Oh, sorry, Henry, go ahead. Have you ever met Vermin Supreme, by the way? No, my fiancé, yes. He's quite charming. He is, yeah. Vermin Supreme sounds like some of the droppings I found on the roof

yesterday when I was clearing the gutters, but we won't. All right. Yeah. So, yeah, my point, what we know is that candidates who only win bare majorities, like George Herbert Walker Bush against Pat Buchanan, that is a sign that they are having problems. Richard Nixon won 70% in his reelect in 1972 against two semi-serious opponents. And that obviously didn't cause him a problem. If Biden dips below that against Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson as a right in Canada and New Hampshire, that is going to be evidence that there is a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden. And if it's then followed up with substandard performances in Michigan and South Carolina, I think the writing is on the wall, which is to say not that Biden will not be the nominee. Only Joe Biden can take himself out of the race at this point, given how you have to file months

in advance. This isn't 1968 where you can where Bobby Kennedy's dad can get in the race in the middle of March and be serious contender. You can't do that anymore. But it would be a sign that Biden would be a seriously weak candidate, even against a weakened Donald Trump. And that's what I'm looking for in New Hampshire on the Democratic side is, does Biden break two-thirds of the vote? Wait, Henry, so there's no way for the party. Let's suppose that on Wednesday morning, he's fallen below two-thirds, that it's a catastrophe for Biden. Even then, Biden alone, or Dr. Jill, perhaps, who could talk him into it, Biden alone can remove himself as nominee. Even then, there's no way for the party.

There aren't elders in the party. There's not enough structure. There's nobody to whisper in his ear, Joe, it's time. In other words, there's no mechanism for getting rid of this guy. Well, but that's the thing. There are people who will whisper in his ear, but he has to make the decision. The thing is that the Democratic Party, like the Republican Party following the McGovern-Fraser committee, has bound its hands. There are no longer unallocated, unadmitted delegates, even the superdelegates. This is what Bernie forced through after 2016. Even the superdelegates on the Democratic side are bound to the results of the primary. So you have to look and say, okay, how many primaries have the filing deadlines passed on? Well, pretty much all of them that vote before April, if not some of the ones in April. So you can't get on the ballot. Could you mount a write-in campaign? Well, good luck trying to

mount a national write-in campaign. My point is that the convention selects, and the convention is bound to the primaries, and Biden's the only serious candidate. So if Biden drops out, then all of those delegates become to run, then the Democratic Party rules basically tie the party like an anchor, or Biden is the anchor around the ankles of the party. And the same is true of the Republicans. Let's say, you know, let's say Biden, you know, let's say Trump is the nominee, you know, gets the delegates and so forth. And then in June, something even worse comes out. Finally is the thing that aggravates Republicans.

Can't do anything about it. You'd have to basically have a coup against the rules, and good luck trying to win an election in a coup against the rules. Okay, so I guess what i'm saying i've got a bunch of questions i was just softening you up henry now yeah since peter since peter already broached this topic right there's right around now is the time that people start to think okay it might be this it might be biden versus trump but what are the more fun interesting

things that could happen right usually right around now in a normal year which we're never going to have again which we only had a few of them anyway but since 2016 they seem to be impossible right around now people are going hey you know what's going to happen i i think it's going to be a brokered convention that's what people kept saying bro never happened um right around now people say yeah no biden's gonna stay in the race until after the convention at which point he can be replaced blah blah blah um is any of that gonna happen i mean is is any of that or any of these fantasies between now and nove, whatever it is, 2024, going to happen? I mean, isn't it? Don't we know?

Rob sees a script he doesn't like, and he's asking you for rewrites. No, I'm just saying, like, this is not what people, like, everyone, you know, to get your op-ed placed in the New York Times, here's a scenario, and then you spin out this very complicated mousetrap of things that could happen. Is that going to happen? Any of that stuff? It's almost certain not to happen but because there's such high impact you have to you have to yeah it's possible look joe biden's job approval rating as of yesterday morning and the average was 39.8 percent historically a candidate will get one percent or less more than his final job approval rating. So what that means is that Joe Biden would get 41% of the vote if the election were held yesterday.

OK, I assure you that if Donald Trump has become the nominee in mid-July and Joe Biden's job approval rating is at 39%, and every poll has him trailing Trump. And remember, because of the Electoral College, all Trump has to do is lose the popular vote by four points or less, and he is president. So if he's winning the popular vote, that's like total gravy, okay? So if I'm a Democrat, and I'm i'm looking and i say we meet in four weeks and this guy is 81 years old right people don't care about what's going on they've made their decision on him would i like be putting every pressure possible to have joe biden say please don't put my name in nomination i've decided decided not to run again, thereby freeing up the delegates. I've spoken to my doctors and blah, blah, blah. Yeah. Do I think it will happen? No. Do I think it could happen? Should an analyst look at low probability,

high impact scenarios? Yes. So it's worth discussing with the caveat that this is the two and a half percent happening changes everything narrative with the caveat that this is the two and a half percent happening changes everything narrative with the emphasis on two and a half percent. I think it's less likely that Biden drops out after he's nominated to be replaced by the National Committee because, A, with male voting, it's very hard. You know, They meet at the end of August. Secretaries of State will start finalizing ballots in September. Wow.

Be mailed out in late September or early October. You theoretically could do it, but if you're going to play that scenario, play it out before the convention. Now, of course, if Biden has to act on Labor Day, you can't help it. to play that scenario play it out before the convention now of course if biden so your message you're on labor day you can't help it right your message to uh to gavin newsom is don't hold your

breath uh i think gavin newsom has not been holding his breath all along uh but i also don't think gavin newsom would be the nominee no who would it be g maybe? Who do you think? So my idea. I mean, I know we just said this is going to happen. Yeah. My Democrat strategy head on, I think. Who do I want to be my ticket if it's not Biden-Harris? And my answer is Whitmer-Warnock. Whitmer-Warnock.

Why? Two swing states. White woman, black man. You have a huge problem with black enthusiasm and support. Warnock, unlike Harris, energizes blacks. And Whitmer is the voice of the suburban progressive Democratic woman, but isn't out there like Elizabeth Warren. So I would say thank you, Governor of California. I really don't want to have to defend feces in

San Francisco. Alright. So my next question is this. Republicans are kind of like their hands are tied, right? The guy is winning primaries. He's not a fresh face he was president everybody knows what the second term of donald trump's going to be like except for baby peter who keeps hoping that one day he's going to be visited by three ghosts at night but he is who he is that's just the way he's

an 80 year old man he's got you know 400 pound 80 year old man he's not going to change right um better or worse people who like him, like him. People who hate him, hate him. Those things aren't going to change. Aren't there Democrats thinking themselves or I should say it the other way. The theory has been the Democrats are desperate for Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee because then, you know, we're in then. That's what they are. Are Democrats really thinking that?

Do they really think that this is going to be a romp for their candidate if Trump is the nominee on the other side? No, at this point, I think it's pretty clear they don't think that. I think when they were I think they did think that a year ago, but I think it's pretty clear that Democrats no longer think that he is a certain loser. I think they think they want to believe that people will change their minds, go back to, and they may be right, go back to, well, I don't like biden but not trump um but no i don't think they're pining for trump when i think right now they would prefer desantis because desantis has fizzled as a in a major way and i say gee we get to run all the policies things against desantis and he's a drip and he's a damn squib as a candidate so but you know give it me give me

more some of that rds right but they're not going to get to santas they're going to get haley or trump so there are probably memos clearly rather have trump because haley is a non-offensive um person who can be the receptacle for biden discontent so okay two more i could give back so so i so i imagine there are meetings and memos which i desperately want to read by very smart people democrat democratic strategies smart people you know smart saying emphatically a year ago we need to neutralize ron desantis he's the one we should be worried about and we need to prop up donald trump and they were utterly wrong and i would love to know how much money was spent to generate all those pages saying exactly the opposite and do you think this kind of political malpractice will ever be punished

on either side because you and i both know there are those memos we could find that that paper exists well it was quite clear from what you're seeing is that people on the democratic side fear de santis which is why you start to see hit piece after hit piece after hit piece and the question is they may have had their intended effect you know which is say ron just used to run ahead of donald trump against joe biden now he runs behind it may very well be because of that so So I wouldn't say it's a political malpractice. But for that, maybe Ron DeSantis is doing better against Donald Trump. But for that, maybe he's better in the matchups for Biden.

What's happened is that Trump has shown an energy and a verve. Right. energy and a verve right uh that you know frankly when you watch that announcement speech in november of 2022 or december whenever it is that he formally got in the race this guy looked like he was going through the motions this yes this you know this guy looked like an aging rocker who had almost gotten the words um he doesn't look that way anymore yeah so when you're making these decisions you're making these decisions against the backdrop of what you can see who's got the hardest job for november but bush um um biden v trump trump seems to be his his goal is to say everything's crappy this guy did it everything was great when i under me forget about covid

forget about all these other mistakes I made. But it was all great. I'm going to restore the greatness that I brought. So it's a referendum on Biden. And Biden said, are you kidding me? This guy's insane. He's erratic and dangerous. We barely got out of the Trump era.

Remember how terrible that was? Who's got it worse? I'm not sure, but neither of them. The thing is that both of them should not be president. But one of them would be. Absent something

unusual, you know, again, 77 and 81 year old man, who knows what's going on inside their bodies or in their side, their heads. Um, but this is no different than Clinton Trump. Neither of those people should have been present, but one of them had to be hence the sweet meteor of death bumper stickers. Those are coming back. Yeah. Oh, absolutely. You you know it's kind of yeah yeah i'm almost waiting for the one you know um don't blame me i voted for smod uh right now this is definitely for many people the kang versus kodos election to drop right twirling twirling into the future

henry last question here and that has to do with what happened to this with DeSantis, because here's a guy who has all the policies that you, that, that the people who support Donald Trump would generally like. He doesn't have a record of hanging a medal around Fauci's neck. People who don't like the vaccine. Well, Ron DeSantis does not brag about operational warp speed. People want the schools open. People wanted society, all of the things that supposedly we want, including an ability to rhetorically and practically and legislatively go up against a great number of institutions and ideas that supposedly the right does not want implemented or strengthened.

Here's the guy. But they didn't want him. They wanted this guy over here, this protean malleable figure into whom they can read a whole bunch of other stuff was de santis doomed for the start or simply because of the fact that trump was in it or was there something about his personality or his boots or something that just people didn't caught into because i thought thought he was an asshole. I thought he was, I thought, I'm mystified, but you know, what do I know? There's never a mono-direction, there's never a

mono-causal explanation for anything. But what I would say is that the DeSantis theory of victory was, I'm going to be the MAGA candidate who wins. And that's going to convince people who like Trump to back me. And Trump decided to say, you're not MAGA.

Can you remember Ron DeSantis responding to those attacks? Nikki Haley is getting incoming in New Hampshire, and she's tweeting and refuting that in real time. I cannot remember a single time where Ron DeSantis defended himself. I cannot remember until the end when Ron DeSantis started actually contrasting himself with Trump. The whole theory of the case had to be one of two things. You either have to go at it like a typical attack on an incumbent, which is drive the negatives up, which means attack, attack, attack. Or you have to go and say there's going to be a choice between two positives. You're going to like Trump, but you have to prefer

me. That requires you to make the argument. DeSantis did neither. If Donald Trump died the day before the Iowa caucus, I think Ron DeSantis would have won, because I think a lot of people say, yeah, I like you, I can accept you. But they love Trump. They never got an argument from DeSantis why they should prefer him over Trump. And they never got, you know, you're saying, well, Trump's just this maleable guy, blame him for COVID. Do you ever hear Donald, or did Ron DeSantis ever devote a speech to saying, let me tell you why Donald Trump should not be president? He talked about, I was better, you know, I beat Fauci.

And he let other people try to remember, oh, well, who's behind Fauci? It must have been Trump. No, you have to beat somebody over the head with a two-by-four. You know, Napoleon said, if you mean to take Vienna, take Vienna. Take Vienna. And he went to Salzburg. Yeah. It's pretty...

Well... You know what? We might have you on a couple more times before the election actually comes. Thank you for having me on. And I hope your listeners can find me on my own podcast beyond the polls with which is also through ricochet yes beyond the polls yeah on the network uh this is the i hope something really crazy and nutty happens just we are not hoping for an act of god yeah just because it'll be more interesting.

But that podcast is riveting and it really answers all the questions you need. Hey, Henry, thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Bye-bye. So that is just one of the podcasts you can find on the Ricochet Audio Network, by the way. And there's a whole bunch of stuff, not just us, you know, my own diner is starting up again. Yeah.

Did the third episode this week in the groove, loving it, having a lot of fun. We're going to figure out a way to get calls in so it can be like an actual live radio show. Oh, that'd be cool. Which would be fun. I'll call in under an alias. I think I might recognize either of you if you call in. Let's use that fancy voice

distorting software that they have. Amazing software they have these days, though. They can take the speech of somebody who is speaking in another language and use that person's voice converted to English, which is great, which gave you the opportunity to hear the Argentinian fellow, that wild-haired libertarian, Javier, I can never pronounce his name correctly, who was in Davos, who put the wood to him. He had him on the ground and was giving him the business.

There were a couple of speeches that I heard where people actually addressed the Grandees and dared to break their bowls, dared to tell them that what they believed was not the case. And Javier just, you you know did you guys read the speech or you just see some excerpts of it read it here it's practically porn i was like and i also i got it not only i read it james but i had it forward to me on all sorts of group chats i'm on many of them not even political just have you seen this guy yes picture of him flying coach um on twitter he posted a picture of him flying coach on Twitter. He posted a picture of him flying coach. This is what the capitalists are doing, flying coach to Davos.

And meanwhile, I've just gone out of my head. John Kerry? Name him. Some socialist flying private. Venezuelan autocrat or something. Who cares about climate change more?

Yeah. Oh, this guy is just too good. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Apparently, he's nuts, but I can handle nuts. What other shoe? What do you mean? You mean he seems too good to be true. Well, he's got a cloned dog named after...

Dogs. I think he has half a dozen of them. One is a clone named afterray rothbart rothbart yeah yes yes you're one of those transhumanists you find out that he's got a chip in the back of his head which you regularly upload with amino acids or something like that but i mean yeah when you talk about pure mainlining heroin porn this is how we have reached the point where with different names or forms whether they openly declare themselves as communist fascist nazis socialists social democrats national socialists christian democrats keynesians neo-keynesians progressives populist nationalists

or globalists in the end there are no substantive differences i just like it's the state that's the problem it's the state and everybody who exalts the state is leading towards the model that has denied people the progress that open markets and free yeah it's just i mean it's fantastic but i'm sure at some point he's just going to turn into a jackbooted fact that he's going to be portrayed as the jackboot and that's what i love about political discourse today is that the more you argue for locale for localism and freedom from the books the more you are associated with brown shirts who march through cities and burn books.

It just absolutely fascinates me. So good for him. Also in the news today, before we leave in the next 30 minutes or so, we seem to have a rash of bricked Teslas around the world, at least in the United States, in cold places where people are waking up to the fact that maybe EVs, anything relying on a battery,

doesn't do well in sub-zero temperatures. Germany, it turns out, is also backing off some of its EV consumption. Ford, I think, is decreasing production of its EVs because no one wants... Nobody wants the things. Right. In general, there are always going to be a few niche people who like to whir around with a little Jetson sound that they make. I get it.

That's fine. I can see what people need. Our own friend Bjorn Lornberg tweeted out the other day that 2050, something like 85% of the people are still going to want a gas-powered car. And he's right i mean they but it's actually it's it's classic case of the environmentalists of the ev supporters getting them not taking the win but the customers want a hybrid yes they want and the hybrids exist and there was the it was the crackpot environmentalist well the hybrid is that's not going to solve the problem but in fact the consumers think no no hybrid's perfect for me because I know

it can start. I know if I forget to charge it or it doesn't charge or it's hard to find a charger, I know it will work. My gas consumption goes down by 75% or 80%, and I'm happy. Way down. And only the crackpots, only the zealots think, no, we can't have a B plus A minus solution. You must do everything the way we insist that you do it. And it's just shocking to me that it's, once again, I mean, not to sound like my glorious

political hero, the president of Argentina, but when you meddle in, if you stop listening to the market, you stop getting the good news. And this is good news. That's actually beautifully put. That's exactly right. People are saying, okay, coal is dirty. We don't want this is good news. That's actually beautifully put. That's exactly right. People are saying, okay, coal is dirty. We don't want to eat coal anymore. It's great.

We got all this natural gas. Phew. And then we're told, of course, we can't have natural gas. So go back to coal. We can't go back to coal and we can't go back to nuclear because it takes too long. And we're all very afraid of it because of Jane Fonda and her movie. So therefore, we have to go to wind and solar, which is great because it's renewable. Except it doesn't work.

It doesn't provide enough power. It just doesn't. And I don't care how good the batteries get. It's not going to be the solution. It drives me absolutely crazy. But you know why I will never get an EV? I don't care if they get those things to start when it's 30 below. I don't care if the range is forever because I would have range anxiety about that thing.

It's because I'm the kind of guy who's always got his eye on the battery icon on my phone or my laptop. Me too. And I start to get Ajita if it gets below 90%. When it's 88%, I'm starting to look around for an outlet. I travel, I go from here to Cancun on a four-hour plane. I've got, I'm practically carrying,'m practically carrying a Firestone battery from a car in case

that there'd be nothing at the airport even though I know there'll be a socket on the plane. No, I'm not going to. I've got a battery. Because what if the socket on the plane doesn't work and then I'm stuck at the airport for a while and I'm trying to find my guide to take me into the jungle, which is an hour ride. I don't want to be at

5% when I'm going to the jungle. I've got to call my kidnappers to get them, my relatives to get the kidnappers money. No. So I would never buy an EV. I'd just be looking all the time at that. Whereas in a car, I know that this is America and around the corner or down the road, there's going to be a station and it's going to pump it out and it be going to be the most efficient means of generating power to my engine you can possibly think of the most efficient means by the way of keeping ricochet going is for you the listener to go there and join you're going to want to do that rob right because they will get uh well they'll get so much this is where you insert your pitch about why it's great and how you tour oh yes in fact what

you'll get is a civil community of people uh talking and debating in the civil way and also sharing things from a shared broad perspective we're not talking about um you know people who are specifically agree on every single thing um that is uh that is fast disappearing in our public sphere our public square but ricochet and ricochet.com are the places where we're still flying that flag. So we would like you, if you've enjoyed this podcast, we'd love you to join so we can keep making these podcasts. We'd also love you to join and see what's going on in the member feed. We'd love to have you be a member of the same club that we are. I go to the member feed all the time and I often post pieces that are available

no place else. Nowhere else. Not on my blog, not on the main page, not on the Star Tribune, not on National Review. If I had more hair, I'd say that's where I let it down, but there we go. It's been great. Gentlemen, a pleasure. We'll see you all in the comments at Ricochet4. Next week.

Next week, boys. Ricochet. Join the conversation.