The Ringer NBA Show - 2024-25 NBA Season Predictions | Real Ones

Episode Date: October 22, 2024

The NBA regular season is back! And so are Howard and Raja with their predictions for the season. Along the way, they discuss their picks for most interesting teams, biggest underachievers, MVP, and more! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Howard Beck and Raja Bell Producer: Jonathan Kermah Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Look, it's not that confusing. I'm Rob Harvilla, host of the podcast 60 Songs That Explain the 90s, except we did 120 songs. And now we're back with the 2000s. I refuse to say aughts. 2000 to 2009. The Strokes, Rihanna, J-Lo, Kanye, sure. And now the show is called 60 Songs That Explain the 90s, colon the 2000s. Wow.

That's too long a title for me to say anything else right now. Just trust me. That's 60 songs that explain the 90s, colin the 90s, in the 2000s, preferably on Spotify. What up? It's the real ones. Coming to you live. Light the tape anyway. From the ringers world headquarters in downtown Los Angeles. We got nice offices here, Kerm.

Thank you for showing me in. I was lost for like 10 minutes, leaving Raja in the lurch. Raja still safely ensconced in South Florida, but I am coming to you from L.A. at Ringer headquarters. Raja, you're really large on a big screen in front of me here. It's a little intimidating. Yeah, I know. Well, I don't really, I've said this for the listener. I said it before we came on here. I personally don't love the setup. Like, you guys seem very distant back at that table

right there. And I've got really accustomed to having you guys, like, looking like we're in one of those old COVID Zoom calls. So like, the distance is throwing me too. So just maybe it'll even out. At least we didn't have to record on Riverside today. I didn't say that. We are recording. We're not after 9 a.m. Pacific noon, Eastern. We are hours away from opening tip on opening night. But folks, the content's evergreen. So there are two games tonight, but we are previewing everything, making our predictions for two reasons because predictions are fun.

Also, producer Kerm is sitting here dutifully taking notes so that he can then beat us over the head with them and humiliate us in the spring when we're wrong. The best episode of the year, baby. We just low enough for it. We got to do this now. I want to let you guys know, too. I did text Logan, who of course is on paternity leave right now. Shout out to Logan. I did text Logan to say, hey, if you want any predictions on the books, just for fun, just for posterity.

What did he say to that? He said, hell no. Hell no. He said, that's all you guys. This is crazy. Everyone who knows me knows that I'm not the biggest into digging into the homework and really, you know, I shoot from the hip a lot. But I found myself when I was going over the questions, Howard, no bullshit. I found myself like, I was like, man, this is going to get thrown in my face pretty good.

So let me just, I won't get it right anyway, but let me do a little bit more research on the back end, on the front end. So to kind of mitigate the chance on the back end, it was hilarious. I think I did set a record for longest text I've sent you on this chain since we started doing this. So I threw a lot at you. It'll be fun. We'll be wrong frequently, I'm sure. No mailbag today because we got a lot to get to but Real Onesmailbag at gmail.com

Real onesmail at gmail.com. Real onesmail at gmail.com. We'll get back to those. And we'll be back to twice a week starting next week, Tuesdays and Fridays. Roger, let's just jump right in. Season starts tonight. Open-ended question. This was not on the text chain.

Look at that. I'm throwing your curveball already. Is there anything that hits you right off the bat that like kind of the most intriguing things about this season? What are you either most looking forward to, most curious? about what strikes you right off the bat as we tip off 2024-25? I mean, just general broad stroke type of deal, I guess. Is there anybody in the East in that second tier of teams?

Because I think most people think it's Boston and then a small tier of teams, like right behind them. So is there anyone there that's going to take that jump up and pose a real threat throughout the course of the regular season and maybe in the playoffs to Boston? Like are the Milwaukee's going to get to bounce back? Is New York going to take the next step? Philly with Paul George. That's interesting to me.

And then the Western Conference, you know, it's just I'm intrigued by it in general. Like I could see it playing out where you have the heavy hitters at the top again. Like last year, I mean, you had, well, I should say the teams that were near the top last year taking that net step, but I could also see it just kind of shaking all the way up. So, yeah, I don't know if that's a great answer, Howard. No, but it hits the fact that the broadest, about this NBA season and this time in the NBA, which is that we have such incredible

parity that any of us could sit here and just start naming like six, seven teams as contenders, and you might, you know, wins at a couple of them, but you couldn't rule them out entirely. Like there are six or seven plausible finals teams. And that's been the case, I think, for the last few years now. We may wake up one day and have it not be the case. It may just, maybe the Thunder and the Celtics just run away with this thing, right? but like if you told me Milwaukee was in the finals, I'd believe you. If you told me New York was in the finals, I'd believe you.

If you told me Philly was in, if you told me Dallas was in, if you told me Denver magically, I don't believe it, but I wouldn't shock me entirely, right? Minnesota. There's just a lot of really good teams. This is what Adam Silver wanted. This was the dream. Parity, NFL style parody. I had two other quick thoughts before.

we get into some predictions and just some of our other thoughts in the season. I wonder if this is the last run for the old guard, right? Steph, LeBron, Durant, Kauai, from 2012, Raja until 2022. So that 10 years span, actually, it's an 11-year span in terms of championships. Steph, LeBron, Katie, and Kauai accounted for 10 of 11 championships. Wow. The only one that wasn't them was Janus. in 2021.

And so, like, you know, how good are the warriors? Like, I think they're actually going to be, we've talked about something, they're going to be actually pretty good. They may defy expectations, but are they actually a contender? LeBron's definitely not on a contender. Kauai's not on a contender. KD, I've seen a lot of pretty bullish predictions about the Suns. Like, some people are feeling good about them.

We'll get to it. But we're really, really close here. Like, it's possible we've already seen the last championship. by these four who dominated a decade. But I'm curious to see if, you know, one of them can pull it out. Yeah, that's pretty interesting. It's a really interesting stat. I think you definitely, I shouldn't say definitely.

I think there's a pretty good chance you've seen the last championship from that group unless they were to have major shakeups in their current situations. One of them should be moved by a team. And I know that's probably unheard of for some of those guys at this point. but to where they're not the overall number one, if you will, at this stage of their career. If there's something like that that happened, Howard, I could see another one for someone. But, like, as it's currently constituted and where these guys are with their respective teams, like, I think that ship is still.

Yeah, I think probably the case, but I'm a hopeless nostalgic, Raja. So I would love to see one of these guys make another run. Durant's probably the most likely of that group. but we'll see. All right, let's jump into some of my homework assignments for you in that long-ass text. Let's start here. Most interesting team. Who's your most interesting team?

And this is open-ended, right? They don't have to be good. They don't have to be bad. They don't have to be a contender. Sure. Just interesting for any reason. Oh, man. These were all, I mean, again, you know, the thought about the league and the parody in the league

and what it does to your championship predictions and stuff like that. Held true for almost all of these questions, Howard. You know what I mean? Like I could go through each one of them, and I had like a handful of answers to it. So, you know, off the top, I think the two that I settled on, right? Most interesting were going to be the Memphis Grizzlies. I'm just fascinated to see what John Moran's going to look like coming back.

I'm also fascinated by Zach Eadie. We'll get to him in another one of these. the style of play that they're going to settle into, the recipe that they're going to have to figure out in terms of what Taylor Jenkins does to actually get the wins out of what you have there, how you have to play to get that right. So they're probably number one for me. Number two is going to be Minnesota.

We talked about Julius Randall and how he fits in personality-wise. You know, the dynamic, you know, between him and, and, and, uh, and, and, uh, and, and, uh, but for me, it's really to see if Anthony Edwards takes that next step. Uh, I, you know, I, obviously he's fantastic. I'm a huge fan. But I was watching a young player in the playoffs last year and just watching him as a defender and watching him as, as, as, as like a strategist defensively. And I could see what teams were choosing to do to him, what were the space that they wanted him to have to live in to beat them. and he struggled with that at times. Not all the time, but there were inconsistencies there. You could tell that the game wasn't all the way rounded out.

When guys at that level rounded out, there's virtually nothing you can do to them to get them stymied. It's just whether they are making or missing. And so I'm interested to see if he takes that next step. So for me, it would probably be those two teams. Both great candidates. It's interesting because Minnesota should be a contender. I'm still not sure.

we talked about this at length a week or two ago. I'm still not sure if they're actually better or maybe slightly worse or just different, but maybe the same in terms of their potential for the season. I don't know what to make in Minnesota until we actually start seeing them, and Randall didn't play most of the preseason. A lot of guys didn't play a lot of the pre-season. I don't know how many times we saw any team play their actual projected starting five, at least among the really good teams.

So there's a lot we still have to learn about these teams. My most interesting team, like you, I had a couple. But I settled on the heat, Raja. They're not good enough to contend. They've made two finals in the last four years, five years, but they're not good enough to contend. They're not bad enough to tank. They have no clear rising star to kind of inherit the mantle from Jimmy Butler.

They don't have any honest. obvious path forward. They're just kind of stalled out. They're somewhere in play and range. If everything broke their way and everybody stayed healthy finally, maybe they're top six, maybe. But as, as, you know, with Cleveland, or as good as Cleveland has become, an Indiana and Orlando rising, like, I just don't see, I don't see the heat breaking back in as one of the guaranteed playoff teams. So they're just kind of stuck. Jimmy's 35 and in the last season of his contract, they didn't agree on an extension. But the reason they're interesting to me, Raja, is like they could be buyers.

Like maybe. I don't think they will be. They could be buyers between now and the trade deadline and like make one more just one more run. Try to make one more run. Just swing for the fences. I don't know who that is. I don't know who could possibly be available. And I don't think they have the assets to get a major deal done.

But could they try to just patch it up and then throw one more log on the fire or are they sellers and is it time to trade Jimmy and if if not now then by next summer at the latest I think he's probably gone either opting in and being traded or maybe he hits free agency but the heater at an inflection point to say the least like they've got to pick a path soon yeah no I I mean they were in a in a box for me of very interesting teams I actually touch on them probably in another segment if we get to it and The reason I will touch on them is the very reason why I find them so interesting, a lot of which you just articulated.

All right, let's go to biggest pleasant surprise or overachiever. So pleasant surprise, obviously, you know, a team that we think, one of us thinks, will be a lot better than the general consensus. You want to go first? Yeah, I'll go first. I've touched on this in previous shows, but I'm going to hit it again. here. I really, really believe the Warriors could be top six in the West. I do. I know that there's, you know, they have very little margin for error, right? If Steph gets hurt for any later

at all, they're toast. If Steph falls off a bit at this age and this stage of his career, which is, you know, historically happens, they're toast. If Draymond can't anchor the defense at the level that they're accustomed to, they could be toast. But, If you look at the level that Stefan Dremont played at last season, especially when Dramon was actually available, they were going to be a 50 win team without the suspensions. Pajemsky had a really nice rookie season. Trace Jackson Davis had some nice moments. Cuminga made a leap and may be poised to make another one. They just extended Moses Moody because they clearly believe in him. They brought on Kyle Anderson and D. Anthony Melton and Buddy healed.

They're really deep. They're almost too deep. Steve Kerr is even talking about like, I'm going to have. a difficult time. It's a good problem to have. But they've got really great depth, and they've still got a guy who, at his best, and Steph is a top five player. I know he's probably not in the MVP or the preseason MVP running, but there's a scenario here where the Warriors, especially given the volatility in the middle of the West, I think the Warriors are going to be a pleasant surprise. I think they finish actually in the top six in the West, even with a chance, a chance

of being top four. Crazy? Yeah. No, no, not crazy. I mean, this is, uh, we talked about that a few pods ago, didn't me? Like, that's not, that's not all the way crazy. I don't, I don't think I'd be a full buyer on that, but I don't think it's necessarily absurd. Um, my surprise team's going to be, again, I had, I had multiples. Um, I actually had the heat as my, my one B. Um, and I could convince myself with them of, of the logic that you just laid out. But I could also convince myself of like, all right, Jimmy Butler, Bam, Hero, Jaime Hockes with another year. They typically don't underachieve.

I mean, the floor is usually pretty stable for them. So I could make an argument, you know, on the flip side of that. But I do agree, even if I make that argument, you're not winning. You're not a championship level team, right? But like, be an interesting team for me. But I think surprise is ultimately going to be the Sacramento Kings for me. You know, a little fall off last year. We thought they were, you know, kind of knocking on the door two years ago.

But I think DeRosen, not just as a skill set as much, but just as a human being, as a locker room presence, you know, as a guy who's got a ton of experience. I think you plug him in. He's a tough bucket getter in a way that, I mean, I know they have guys that can score the ball. But I lump scores into different categories, like what you ideally have to do offensively to get them a bucket. And, you know, the type of score I'm talking about is the one that you don't have to do shit for. Give him the ball, get out of his way. He's going to hit a tough shot, no matter if their primary defender is on him and has done a great job or not. And I think he fits that bill.

And I just like them. I think they've got young legs. They've got ascending players. And you drop a player like DeMarre de Rosen into that. And I think they could be a surprise team in the West. I think they can have a nice bounce bat. I was really tempted, actually, to go with them. And I think the potential is there.

Like we're all going to worry about can they play defense at any level. But they might just be so incredible offensively in terms of their efficiency and the way the options they've got now with DeRosen in the mix. I'm not going to say it doesn't matter. But this is an offense-driven league primarily. It's nice if you can also play elite defense. But they already had a really dynamic offense. They've got a great one-two punch in Fox and Subonis.

I'm with you on all the things you said about DeRosen. The gravitas and experience and just wisdom he brings, really smart, dude, thoughtful guy. I think he, not that that locker room necessarily needed a leader of his type, but I think maybe they do. Like, it can't hurt. And he's still playing at a high enough level, too, that you've got to listen, right? Like, it's tough at the end of careers where guys who were great players and leader types, but now they're like a bit player and your voice is not as strong.

DeRosio's voice still matters. and so I like all of it. By the way, not for nothing. Deeran Fox was the first ever winner of the NBA's new Clutch Player of the Year award. Still a weird one, but whatever, NBA. But DeRod Fox was the winner of the first Clutch Player of the Year award. DeRosen's been a finalist for that award the last two years. So that's exactly what you kind of wanted, right, if you're the Kings.

Don't have everything rest on down the stretch just Deerrin trying to manufacture something. Now you've got another guy who can get off a shot anywhere. Yeah, totally. And as far as the leadership, no, I mean, I don't think they were lacking in leadership overall, but there are within the leadership of your team, there are parts of that general leadership that could be stronger or that you might be missing. Like a young player can be a leader, but just because he's missing perspective might not be able to lead in certain situations. And I think you plug a guy like DeRose and he's seen everything. there wasn't anything necessarily missing in leadership, but you're just adding to the collective leadership when you bring him in there.

I just think it's a good fit. Do you worry it all about just like the spacing kind of thing here, right? Like Dero's not a three-point shooter, blah, da-da-da. Like, can you account for that and offset that? Yeah, I mean, so listen, I mean, most people who listen could probably figure out. I'm not like a true analytics like guy. I am a hybrid. Like I'm not completely old school.

Spacing is an issue. I think sometimes it's harder with bigs when you're talking about spacing because their defender is going to, you know, organically be more anchored to the paint, which causes problems. I think when you're dealing with perimeter guys, you can figure out ways that it doesn't have to completely kill your, your spacing. People are going to throw Russ at me. And that's fair. but he's not DeMarcozen. Like, do you know what I mean? Like, those are two different animals offensively.

So I do see where people come from with that argument, Howard, and I have, like, wrestled with it a little bit. But ultimately, I think they figure that out. I agree. Flipside of our biggest pleasant surprise or achiever, the biggest disappointment or underachiever. You can take this one first. Biggest underachiever.

Oh, or I can go. Yeah, underachiever is a tough one. me. I, you know, I hate to do it because I'm probably going to get, I'm probably going to get killed, but I think it's going to be the Lakers. I think, I think, I just think because we always come in. Curms over and you got to look. We always come in with so much, you know, look, whenever you have LeBron and AD, you know, expectations are going to be really high and they're great players and rightfully so. Like, I'm a huge fan of LeBron's and I may maybe less to a lesser degree of AD, but I respect what he does and who he is as a player.

But because expectations, I guess it's relative to expectation, Howard. I think, you know, the Laker fan, maybe not the media member, but the Laker fan always just thinks it's, they can figure it out. And I just don't think, though, I don't think as he continues to get older,

and they continue to play the style that they play. I think there's some things that are missing. I actually, you could convince me of a path where this isn't true, but I think ultimately they're going to be the biggest underachiever for me. Unpopular opinion. As a Laker fan, I have no expectations for this team.

So that's why I'm like, biggest underachiever, man. We're about to be the most entertaining nine seat of all time. Like, how does it be worse than that? If you represent most of the Laker fan base, then I just whiffed on the question completely. And I don't know if I do, because there's a lot of people where it's just like, well, we have LeBron and we have AD,

but it's like they didn't make the team any better, right? All we added was, what, rookies? Like, for me, I just, my expectations are so low that I just can't see them as underachievers. But that's fair, Roger, just because, I mean, it's the Lakers. It's always high pressure no matter who's on the team. And when you have LeBron on it, yeah, I get it. Car ride from the airport last night and my driver's, like, waxing about the Dodgers and how awesome this is. The World Series starts Friday, but it's going to be crazy downtown.

I'm going to work early that day or whatever. It's talking about the, you know, this is this magical run of the Dodgers, right? after I'm like five, ten minutes. I'm like, so how's everybody feeling about the Lakers? He went, yeah, not so good. Okay, so then my answer's terrible then because Kermen is representative of the fan base.

But Roger, you're right. You can find, if you look across, and not just, I think, fans, I think you might find the Lakers predicted anywhere from guaranteed playoff spot, top six in the West, to out of the play-in. Like not even finishing the play in.

Which actually, before I get to my biggest disappointment, quick tangent here. Because this is interesting. You were talking about the Grizzlies earlier as an intriguing team. There are a team that definitely a lot of people think not only are going to leap back from lottery to relevance, but maybe even top four type relevance, maybe even top two type relevance in the West. So they're expected to make a leap. You just talked about the Kings going from, you know, they were a playing team last year. they could make a leap. So that's into the time.

There's only six spots in the top six. Last I checked, that's my math. Houston, team that a lot of people are bullish on making another jump. And then we've got the Spurs if they can stay healthy around Wembe and develop a little bit more. Maybe they cracked the playing rate. So we have three teams that were not in the top 10 last year, meaning playoff and play in. Memphis, Houston, San Antonio. If Memphis is in, and everybody says they are,

are, who's out? And this is a question. Who's the first team to get knocked out? If we assume that the Grizzlies are now a playoff team, who's getting knocked out of that top ten? Who's not even in the play-in? I'm tossing the clippers first. I was about to say, it's got to be all-clippers.

Especially with Kauai not even starting the season healthy. So that becomes easier. Even if he had started the season healthy, I was skeptical enough of the clippers that I think they are the first team. If Memphis is in and somebody's got to be out, I think the first team I'm putting a line through is the clippers. But if Houston's also in, Raja,

now who's out? Yeah, that's what I'm trying to tell you. All right, no, I'm asking you. Is that the Lakers? Do the Lakers go from, where were they? I think they were 8th, 9th? 7th? No, excuse me, 8th, 8th.

They were 8th last season. and then made the first round of the playoffs. I think if there's, if two teams get in, if it's Memphis and Houston are both in, I think it's both L.A. teams are now out of the top ten. Where were the Pelicans last year? I don't have that in front. Where are the Pelicans?

Pelicans were seventh, just ahead of the Lakers. Yeah, I just don't know what that looks like. So I could, you know, and I'm talking a bunch of junk about the Lakers, but I mean, I could potentially say the Pels there, just because I have no idea what that's going to look like. Yeah, they could, They're another one of those interesting teams that could go either way, right? Like maybe DeJante Murray is the answer.

Right. I don't know, but they also, you know, lost Valanchunis. Herb Jones is their nominal center. I don't know what that means yet. We'll see. But anyway, I just, I thought that was an interesting kind of tangent to all this, is that if we're talking about, you know, this time of year, it's all about, you know, oh, who's ready to break through, and this team is on the rise and look at the rockets and all their young talent.

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All right. So my biggest disappointment slash underachiever. I hate to do it again. It's got to be the Nuggets. It's got to be the Nuggets. They've had five straight seasons of increasing their win total. So you go back five years, they won 47 games, and they have literally increased their win total every single season consecutively peaking at 57. They're going to fall back. And I think they may even fall below 50. That's how concerned I am for the Nuggets. That's a combination of losing KCP, a year after losing, obviously, Brown and. Green. That's their, you know, now absolute reliance on a bunch of young guys. It's everything that some of their players have gone through, I think. Personally, we don't need to get into, obviously, again. And just the chemistry, even coached a front office chemistry, there's just, there's tension, there's concern, there's everybody looking around going like, are we, like, they're still spending. Aaron Gordon just got a really nice extension yesterday. Jamal Murray got a great

extension, but Jamal Murray got an extension after one of the more concerning spring, summer stretches of a really good player that we've seen recently. It's just bad vibes.

So I think the Nuggets slip, I think they probably still top four, but it won't surprise me if they slip to like six. It won't surprise me if they fall below 50 wins. Yeah, I mean, I could see that.

I mean, you've chipped away at a lot of the, you've chipped away at a lot of the, supporting cast that we talk I talk about like the recipe for success all the time like you've got your core but your role guys are so so important not just in what they provide you know physically and schematically but like who they are as people how they fit into that equation how that how that all works together and you know when you're when you're dollars and cents and in bottom line in

terms of contracts you can't always account for those things like they they just don't mean as much as pure production but if you ask anybody that's been in those locker rooms on those championship teams when vibes are high, there's more to it than just what, what, you know, Kerm can do when I hit him in the corner with the ball. Do you know what I mean?

Like, and those are the nuances of it. But, but, so I could see where you're coming from with that, Howard. Totally. Totally. Because that's a lot of, that's a lot of change around the edges.

And generally speaking, it's just really hard to be a team at that level, you know, for five, six, seven years, you know, in a row. Anyway. And the thing is, at their best, they were awesome because, obviously, A, Yokic, B, it was so perfectly

calibrated around him. And they weren't a great defensive team, but they were at least competent middle of the pack defense by the time they won championship. And I always say, like, if you've got, if you're not a super team, if you just got one superstar, which is what their model effectively is, then you have to be really well calibrated around him. And you start pulling those threads. You take away a KCP. You take away a Bruce Brown. You take away. Jeff Green. And if there's any slippage at all in a Michael Porter Jr. or an Aaron Gordon, and there is slippage in Jamal Murray, or at least there was, you know, spring, summer, let's see if he bounces back. You can't sustain it. It's too fragile. Like any one piece

starts to fray, you're just not there anymore. And at the same time, the rest of the conference is getting better around you. And so sometimes, you know, it's like we talked about with the Kings last year where it's like, the Kings didn't get any worse. And they still felt like, six spots in the standings because everybody else just got better and leapfrogged. It happens. How is your corner three, Kerm? Right now it's not great. I haven't hoops since like July.

So if you're kicking to me, it's a risky business. Dremont type shooting. We'll see what happens. That's not Drey Mung like what two or two, three years in a row or something at a preseason game. And some days, that might happen. But again, I'm a little rusty. So we'll see.

All right. Last one in this set. one bold prediction. One bold prediction. Raja, are you feeling bold this morning? Listen, this is like Kerm, Kerm is ready. Like he's like the fingers are on the keyboard because he can't wait to kill us with this one in April. I don't know.

I'm not. This is working. What side of your brain is a creative side of your brain? Like what is that? Mine doesn't work. Mine's scrambling. Yeah, mine doesn't work. I'm going to go with the sons.

Let's go with the sons. I can't know. I can't say winning. I'm not going to win in a championship or anything like that. I'm going to say the sons are a top four team in the West. I'm going to say they're a top four team in the West. Yeah, boldish. I mean, I'm not going to go in all the way. I don't know.

I think I think Boonhoels are coming in there, more of a defensive mindset. I think he's dealt with enough and seen enough. I think you get a second year of book and KD. And of the stars, I think you were absolutely right earlier when I talked. talked about that window kind of being closed of these stars. I do think if any of them is going to extend that, it is KD, just the way he looked last year. He looked fantastic. I don't think Bradley Beale, I hope Bradley Beal gets it figured out in a way that he didn't

necessarily consistently last year. So for all of those reasons, the addition of Tyos helping, you know, facilitate and just set the table. Yeah, I think the Sun's top four team in the West. It's funny. When I was looking at this, like, what are the reasons to be? believe in the Sons, right? At this time of year, you're looking at, like, what are the reasons to believe in this team? What are the reasons to be skeptical about this team? The Sons in particular,

two elements, right? The two new elements, Budenholzer and Tias Jones. So there are there other players they've added, too. And then, you know, there's the wild card of health with their stars and all this. But Boodenhouser is won coach of the year in both places that he's been so far in this league. He won't coach of the year in Atlanta, one coach in the year in Milwaukee. He won a championship, obviously, in Milwaukee. And Vogel, I thought, did a perfectly fine job. I didn't think they needed a coaching change. It wasn't the reason that they were, if they were underachieving. They had other issues, right?

But Buttonholz was a proven commodity in this league and does make an immediate impact on teams. We've seen it twice. But I'm more curious about Tyos Jones, Raja. So Tyos Jones, at one point, he was the perennial best backup point guard in the league, a guy who could start for X number of teams. But wow, what a great luxury it is to have him as your backup. And now here he is. We're plugging him into a team that, you know, they tried it the other way, right? Ah, we don't need a point guard. Bradley Beal is our de facto point.

Kevin Durant can handle the ball. Devin Booker can handle the ball. We've got guys who can initiate the, but no, now you've got a guy who's a high efficiency, low turnover, consummate setup guy and can shoot in Tyos Jones. How big a difference just do you think that Tyos Jones makes? Like, he's not, clearly, he is not their even third most important player. he's at best now they're fourth but maybe a really really important fourth like how big of an impact does he make? A huge impact, like an incredible impact.

I'm sitting here trying to draw some sort of analogy to like, you know, a regular job. I mean, maybe like I guess asking Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to be point guard would be like, I mean, if you were in like a law firm and somebody

dealt with like criminal law and someone else dealt with like, I don't know, corporate law. You were asking like the corporate lawyer to come over there and try a criminal case. Like just, hey, man, they didn't show up today. Pop in, pop in and try this case real quick. Like it's like, yeah, I know law, but like that's not my job. I don't do that.

I don't specialize in that. You know what I mean? So like, I come in there and and object to some shit here and there. But like I just don't have the full, you know, inner workings of how this is going to be tried. And that's a two trying to play the one. Like a two can play the one if he's a good enough player, get the ball up the court, get you into offense, like protect the rock and get you into stuff.

But man, that's not his job. Like he's not tuned in all the time to when Howard needs a touch because Howard hasn't gotten a bucket in a while. Or when we've gone to Kerm a few too many times, let's get him the ball in a spot that he really likes. Like when I don't even need to look over there at the coach versus when I need to get a play call just because, you know, we've either scored a few times in a row and this thing is rolling and we can have this rogue possession or the flip side of that, which is we've had a few too many rogue possessions. Let me slow this thing down, get a good call and get KD the ball somewhere where we can operate.

Not to mention just freeing up Book and Bradley Bills to those are all the things that the ties will do for the team. what it will do for for book and and Bradley Beal is just free them up to score the ball, like and focus on getting to their spots and focus on, you know, how they can play off of KD or vice versa offensively on any given night. Throwing the responsibility of controlling the team, making sure that it's running efficiently, like, and all of that on top of them, that's a lot.

And I know this sounds crazy and I'm saying a lot of stuff that sounds like probably like common sense-ish, but it really is as simple as like you only have but so much bandwidth. Yeah. You only have but so much stuff

that that brain can hold in the midst of a game and then be great at what you need to be great at and heaping those responsibilities on top of them while it probably looked fine at times and you couldn't necessarily see

falling off the cliff of skill sets. It certainly affected their ability to do the job that the sons had paid them to do first and foremost, if that makes sense. And so I think Tyas helps in a huge way. This was a really bad fourth quarter team, Raja. For a team with as much firepower as they had, when healthy, this is really bad clutch time and fourth quarter team.

And I got to think, if nothing else, having a point guard to just run actual sets. Organization. Organization. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead. Yeah. No, just like, because we've seen like the best players in this league.

And when we say the best players, it's usually guys who can do a lot of shit with the ball in their hands, right? They can score, they can pass. They can take anybody off the dribble anywhere. They can get a shot off anywhere. But left to their own devices, Katie and Russ in Oklahoma, you start, you know, playing, you start, you know, taking turns with the offense, right? There's no actual organization. There's no movement. It's just ISO ball, you know, my turn, your turn.

Katie and Book have shown a lot of that in their short time together because I think of lack of point guard. And not for nothing, but Devin Booker's best season when he went to the finals, he had Chris Paul next to him. Like, that's not coincidence. I even think about like the years that I covered Carmelo in New York, like Carmelo, incredible individual score. But Carmelo's best seasons in the NBA in Denver and New York were when he had either Chauncey in Denver and for a little bit in New York. And then Jason Kidd. End of his career, even Jason Kidd. But sometimes you just need somebody else to say, like, no, no, no, I got this.

I'm running this shit. I will find you. Settle down. Settle down, all-time great top 10 score. But like, I'll get you. But let's run something organized here so that you're getting a better shot, an easier shot, a less defended shot, instead of you just pound on the rock. That's the key, right? So, like, I look at it like an orchestra, right?

Like, you need a conductor. Like, you've got all these people can play their instruments beautifully, right? and left to their own devices, like Howard wants a little more of a solo on this one. Now I got to like Kerm Cook a little bit. Like you're going to be stepping all over each other's toes. And then you get the person up there with whatever you call the little baton thing. And they're just conducting.

And now all these beautiful instruments come together, right, in harmony. And so what you're talking about at the end of games and with Mellow and with Book when he had CP3 is organization and ability to get you some. something efficient. What great scores typically do, anyone that's great at something does, is default to, hey man, I'm great at this shit, give it to me, get out of my way, let me get it done. Right. And when you're playing in an NBA game, like, yeah, man, you're going to score 50 if I just give you the ball and get out of your way. But was it efficient enough for us to get a W out of that. And what that good PG does is just say, hey, man, you're going to get your 50.

I'm going to get you the 50. Don't worry about it. But let me help you get in positions where you can get that 50 at a clip that leaves enough shots for KD, leaves enough shots for Bradley Beal, and leaves enough meat around the edges for all of us to supplement your 50 in a way that gets us to W. And you've got to be organized and you have to have someone that knows how to conduct to do that. You do not want, you do not want, like, even Alan Iverson. Yeah. Like, AI was a point, but like, he, his, like, Eric Snow was the conductor. And AI, get up the court, get to your spot. We're going to run this. We're going to bring him off with his cut. And now go, go get your work at your most efficient, like, place on the court. And we'll do that over and over and over again. And

E. Snow got overlooked in that. But those, those type of scores, they need someone to get them set up. and put them where they need to be so it doesn't become an inefficient night all the time. We have spent a very long time on your one bold prediction of the Suns. I will say, like, I think, I'm this close to being there with you, Raja. Like, I think, and I saw, I think USA Today, I think one of their guys even had, like, the Suns, I think maybe even winning the West going to the finals. Like, there's a scenario there. I'm not completely sold yet, but this is the most promising it's been since they brought

these guys together, which obviously hasn't been that long. But it's possible. My one bold prediction is just going to build off of an earlier take, which is that the clippers are not only going to plummet and miss the playoffs. The tear down starts now. It's just over. It's done. I know they just moved into the building.

Got to see that from the approach last night, the flight into LAX. It was pretty cool. I could see the top of the Intuit Dome and the top of SoFi Stadium, because those are very close together. And the top of Sofai Stadium, they had projected the Dodgers. logo on it. That was pretty cool visual on the flight in at night all lit up. I think

the clippers are, this is the worst time to be doing a tear down, but they made their choice, right? They let Paul George go. They could have kept him. They did pay Kauai Leonard, and he looks iffier than he's ever looked, and this is one of the all-time iffy players.

I just think he's done. I think they start trading vets. Whether Zubach, Norm Powell, whoever, I think the tear-downs starts before we've even had a chance to blink, maybe even before the league has awarded the NBA Cup championship in December. Jesus. What a, I mean, what a, what a collapse.

I mean, we didn't talk about the Kauai news. We haven't had a pod since then. But like, that's just, I can't not agree with you on that, Howard. I'm going to have to, I hear what you're saying, and I could totally see that, that happening. I would feel for them. My guy Trent Redden's out there. I would feel for them, but I mean, that's messy right now. It's messy, and it's a little depressing if you're a Clipper fan

or anybody who just loved the fact that for a while there, they were actually fun. They made L.A. two-team NBA town for the first time. Maybe not the first time. There was Lob City. But still, like this, getting Kauai and Paul George was a moment. and it didn't get them where they wanted to go. I know a lot of people want to say the whole thing is therefore a failure.

I've never felt that. I feel like it gave them legitimacy and a credibility that they never had before because these guys wanted to be in L.A. But it's obviously over. Paul George is gone. By the way, Paul George and Joelle and Bede both ruled out of the Sixers opener. They're not off to the most promising start there either. But those are short term.

Kauai, it's chronic. This is just the story of his career pretty much ever since he got to L.A. It's sad, but I just, I don't see how they're getting out of this. Our buddy Michael Pino on the ringer.com actually had his bold predictions for the season in a column that went up yesterday, and one of them was basically like a bunch of Kauai trades. There's fake Kauai trades. I don't know who trades for, I mean, it's a shorter contract. I don't know who trades for him, but it'd be, it's interesting.

I think it's on the table. I just think everything is on the table, including fake Kauai trades that could become real Kauai trades. Do you have any in front of you? I would be fascinated to hear, like, well, what's on his contract? I think his contract is like, I think they gave him a,

I think it was maybe a two-year extension on top of a year that was left. So I think it's three seasons this year and two more, if I'm correct. So the thing is you're at least, if you're a team acquiring him, if you're a team that already has Raja, a star or maybe two stars,

If you think you're one star away and you don't have to rely on him night in night out, right? We know he's going to miss a bunch of games, but we've got, I don't even know. We've got Janus. We've got, I'm trying to think of who would make the play. Cleveland, I think Cleveland was one of Michael Pina's fake trades

for Kauai, right? If you've got Mitchell and Mowbly still, maybe you're trading charity, I don't know. I would be, oh, I was so sorry, I was, how do I say this with that? Like, I just say it. I am such a healthy, good Kauai fan that it's hard for me to say that I would not touch the other Kauai

for any, I wouldn't touch it for anything. Like I just, I, not if I was a good, not if I was a team like, like that, where, where I've got some good stuff cooking and I probably have to give up some good young stuff to get, to get him and what that does. because it's not just about not being available to play, and it's what that does to the overall psyche of the team. And you know what I? It's just deeper than the ability to go out there

and get the 20 points on any given night. Like that is a drain on an organization when you are dealing with that all the time. I mean a dream. But in our fake trade scenarios, yeah, so where do we send them? So if you guys are the Rockets, would you trade Dylan Brooks, Stephen Adams, and Jalen Green for Kauai litter?

If you were saying again, I'm sorry. I'm reading them off of penis. Say it again, Kerm. So the Rockets, would, if you were the Rockets, would you give up Dylan Brooks, Stephen Adams, and Jalen Green for Kauai? Okay. Pelicans. Would you give up Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones for Kauai? No.

I don't want to give it for Jones at all. And then Cleveland, we got Darius Garland, Karas Levert, one unprotected for. first round pick and three pick swaps. That's a lot of swaps. That's a lot of swaps, but we were getting closer before all the swaps. Yeah, and you've still got Donovan Mitchell, Kauai, and

Evan Mobley in this scenario, right? Mm-hmm. And so... And Jared Allen. And Jared Allen, yeah. You didn't say Jared Allen. Yeah, no, no, you're pretty... Yeah, no, no, okay. Okay. So, so... Now, now we're talking with that, right? And I got, I got this, I love this one from Pina. Okay, this is, uh,

homecoming for Kauai to San Antonio for Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Stefan Castle, and Minnesota's 231 first round pick. So Kauai and Wembe with Chris Paul

at age 73. He's just giving up Kelton Johnson, he's a balmy, but like you give up just Kelden Johnson and Harrison Barnes essentially. And Castle.

And Castle. Whatever the promise of Castle is. No disrespect to castle. We're talking about healthy bodies, though. Again, this is the one

that's interesting to me, Howard because I hear where you guys are going with like the talent for talent thing, but you're giving up so many healthy, productive bodies for something. And this would be my only pushback about your point that he's not the face of your franchise so it doesn't matter. It might, even if he's not the face, but he really means something to night in and night out Ws and he's not there.

Like the face of your franchise might be resentful. And therefore you have a drain on your overall. organization. I don't know. That's a tough one for me. You know, I love a good storybook ending. Kauai back to the spurs. That's irresistible to me as a writer. Like, Kauai and Pop, big, big happy reunion, Kawhi, Chris Paul, you know, going off into the sunset together after they help Wemby get to the finals, you know. Weren't they the ones that he like, before he was ever often injured? Yes. It was a big, yes. That was the place that they couldn't ever get it right. Now the man is injured all the time.

I know. Like, I don't know. Props to Pina for being creative, though. Like I said, I'd like the storybook ending. I was right on the, it's three seasons. So he's at 49 million this year, followed by 50 and 50 that the next two seasons, according to Spotrak. So, yeah, that's a lot.

That's a lot. That's a lot. Damn it, Kauai. I know, you know what? He's going to be, I don't want to say he's one of the great what ifs, Raja, only because dude won two championships for two different franchises and was finals MVP.

It's not a big what if. It's not a Penny Hardaway kind of what if or a Derek Rose or a Brandon Roy or whatever. We saw the best of Kauai for a nice stretch and he took two franchises to championships. But the back end is a massive what if because we were just talking about that 10-11 year run of

Steph LeBron, Kauai, KD, accounting for almost all the championships. And does Kauai have? another one or is he still tacking on more now if he just could stay healthy and it's it's the last four or five years is just nothing but frustration I mean of that of that group like he would be at the bottom of the he would be at the bottom of the list for me of of ones that could potentially find his way back to it just just because like I mean you're not getting healthier dude no there's there's

better chance of LeBron still being like a stud at 45 in playing than there is of Kauai having a full season of health and being able to lead a team somewhere, it seems like. All right, before we get to some awards predictions, those are the ones that are really, really going to haunt us, Roger. This is like, like, Kerm's just sitting here, like just licking his chops at this one. Before we get to that, got to do the real one of the week. Who is your real one of the week, Roger? So my real one, this is in honor of Logan.

we miss you bro um it's going to be for an organization as a staff record label and mffing crew okay this is going to be the miami hurricanes mario christabal shannon dawson and cam ward as a collective and everybody else everybody everybody who knows me knows that i grew up a huge canes fan my i was around for all of the glory years i was at the orange bowl like i i bleed the orange in Ging Green. When it came time, if you're listening, when it came time for Dia to make his decision, I did not want to project on him at all. So he made his own decision. He did not choose to go there. But I'm still a Kane fan, man. And Shannon Dawson told us in the process and Mario told us in the process that they were going to get that thing back. They were going to be explosive

offensively, that all the recruiting and portal work that they had put in was going to pay dividends. And so far, so good this season, one of the few undefeated teams, left in college football, sitting on top of the ACC with a clear path to the 12-team national championship run. So for me, real ones of the week, the Miami Hurricanes, head coach Mario Cristoboffensive coordinator, Shannon Dawson, and Heisman favorite Cam Ward.

Nice. All right, my real one of the week, he might not, he may or may not appear in our next segment, Raja, but he's my real one of the week. Celtics coach Joe Mozilla Celtics coach Joe Mozilla because

this guy Missoula's quotes man he's amazing but this is why he's my real one of the week he was asked the other day by Celtics beatwriters about media criticism social media takes just whatever

just concerns about backlash criticism all that this was Joe Mazula's response they don't have a weapon they're not going to come after me they're just saying words there's nothing anyone in this media circle could do to me that's going to impact my identity and who I am as a person

and a coach. We're either going to win or we're not. And 40 years from now, none of you are invited to my funeral. And that's it. True. Okay. That is as real as real gets. We are not invited to the funeral. By the way, Joe Mazzul is what in his like mid-30s? Like, I hope you're living longer than 40 years. Like, does he, like, does he have foresight? He knows the date of his own death? Like, that's a great Twilight Zone episode. how's he planning out the next 40 years now that he knows? All I know is, well, one, I will not be alive. I don't think in 40 years.

I'll be really freaking creaky and cranky. But I know I'm not going to his funeral, Raja, because he just let us know. Yeah, you're uninvited, homie. I appreciate that. I love that he doesn't care. I think he's genuine. Like, everybody says we don't care what anybody says.

A lot of people actually care. I think Joe, I think Joe Missville genuinely doesn't give a shit. But it also, it also reminded me of a very random memory, which is that in 1998, come with me, kids, back to 1998. During that lockout, there was a Players Association meeting in Las Vegas. It was the one time they brought all the players in for, I don't know if it was a meeting, a vote, whatever it was. It might have been the vote. And so there's a bunch of us, riders at this hotel in Vegas, just like staking out the lobby, waiting for this meeting to start, to end, whatever.

And Shaq comes through. So Shaq sees me along with this throng of media there, and he's like, hey, what's up, bro, da-da-da-da, like this. And Mike Wise, who was then at the New York Times, later he's at the Washington Post. Great writer. After Shaq does this whole song and dance of like saying hello to me and a wise or whatever else, like, like,

like we're all just buds. Wise is like, hey man, Let me just tell you something. This is really my career, right, covering the NBA. He's like, none of these guys are inviting us to, or none of these guys are coming to our funeral.

Speaking of funeral attendance, like his point was basically like, it's fine, like we're friendly with the people we cover sometimes and like maybe you even become friends with somebody occasionally, but like at the end of the day, no matter how much we might all like each other,

like shooting shit, whatever, like, yeah, don't get that twisted. Yeah, they're not coming to your funeral. And we are not going to Joe Mazzula's funeral. Right. Love it. All right. was the real one of the week. We are now back

to predictions that Kerm will haunt us with in the spring. Let's start with Coach of the Year. This one's tough this year, I think. Who springs to mind for you, Raja? A lot of good candidates, man.

Again, I said it earlier, man, because of the parody, a lot of these questions and had a lot of answers. So, like, I could go with Taylor Jenkins and Memphis for a lot of the reasons. You know, I talked about with their team and that you talked about

maybe bouncing back in the West. I had Jamal Mosley potentially with Orlando in there. I had E-May and huge, I had him taking a huge step, but ultimately, I think because of my bold prediction,

I have to go with Coach Booneholes are out in Phoenix. And I think, you know, a lot of it's going to be because of the way we view Phoenix now. they're kind of, you know, they've depreciated in that way that we probably don't give them much of a chance. I mean, I know you said there was a writer for, I don't know what publication. He was USA Today.

Yeah, but a lot. Yeah, but a lot of people kind of like just cast them aside and it was, it looked terrible last year at times. And so, but I, and so they wrote them off. But I like Booneholzer to get them back to relevancy. I actually, it was a bold prediction, but I might be talking myself into it more and more. and I think I like Bud in the coach of the year's spot. He could be a three-time coach of the year with three different franchises. If the sons actually do make a leap, and even if it's more due to say Tyos Jones,

it doesn't matter, right? The coach is going to get credit for a team exceeding expectations. Coach of the year is generally like that there's only two categories for this. It's either the coach who had the best team and it's often a great coach. Or the coach who changed it the most. Right, exactly. Exceeded expectations. Like, oh, we thought that team was going to suck and they were.

a top four. If the suns are like top two, top three, Bud's going to get a lot of credit for that and probably rightfully so. So I could totally see that. I thought about him too. I thought about Yudoka, Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies is tough because they were already good before the injuries. And so, like, if they're bouncing back, how much of that is about coach. Mosley was another one I thought about Jamal Mosley in Orlando. Rick Carlisle, I think the Pacers are poised to take another step. I'm actually higher. Everybody seems to be, aside for me, most people seems like are higher on the magic than the pacer's of that tier of teams that are kind of like on the

rise in the east. I'm higher on the pacer's personally. But I went with and by the way, real quick back to Joe Mazula, he's overdue probably for this. Like he could have won it already. Maybe they win 60 plus again. They don't have a championship hangover.

He keeps them on task and they overcome Borzingus being out for a little bit. He could get it. I'm going to go Kenny Atkinson though. Okay. Cleveland. Because I'm looking for a team that is going to make some kind of substantial leap that is going to surprise us at least a little bit. And the Cavs, they didn't really change up anything.

We've talked about how they've got all these redundancies. I feel like this group is kind of played out. But if Kenny comes in and can infuse them with a different offensive philosophy that figures out the way to maximize those four stars best, the Cavs have a chance to take a leap. I've seen some people even toying with them as a top two, top three team in the East. I don't think anybody expects them to win the Easter come out. But like if they are suddenly like winning in the mid to high 50s with a top three or four offense and a lot of it is just the way that Kenny has deployed them, I could see it.

But a lot of the part part of this is like process of elimination. I was looking at like bad teams that were going to make a leap and there's just not that many teams that look like they can make the leap aside from like a team that was injured like Memphis. Yeah, I like Kenny. Kenny Ackinson was there. Yeah, I mean, I could totally see that. You know, the pieces are in place. I think when you bring in a breath of fresh air like that,

like I think it could do something to a locker room in a way that, you know, you talked about it. You talked about like Taylor Jenkins, the pieces were already there. And so if you come back to being a good team, how much do you really deserve kind of credit for that? I think that the breath of fresh air, like you could, if they're good, there's a real, not that it wouldn't be real for Taylor, but there's like a real value there for that breath of fresh air and coaching that came into that organization and maybe, and maybe boosted them up a little bit in a way that, that I could see, I could see it totally.

Yeah. Rookie of the year. This is an interesting year for rookie of the year because I feel like the guys at the top of the board, you know, normally you're defaulting to a top one, two, three guy. and I don't think people are truly sold on those guys this season. Who you got for rookie? You go, you go. I didn't want to do this because it felt too predictable and consensus-ish,

but I don't see how there's a way to get around Zach Eadie. Maybe literally figuratively or otherwise, because he's a big dude. It's a rare year, Raja, where a top 10 pick, he was, I think, ninth, is actually on a potential contender, right? Like the Grizzlies, as we've been talking about, they're going to make a leap, how far they can go, how big of a leap, and do they stay healthy this time? We'll see. But to be a rookie who is going to get a lot of minutes, whether a starter or just rotation guy, on a team that matters. Like, rookie the year is often just like the rookie who put up the biggest stats.

Maybe it's because he got just a shit ton of possessions because he was on a shit team and just got the benefit of being able to. And it's often, you know, whatever, guards or wings who have the ball in their hands a lot. Zach Edy does not fit that profile. I don't know how many touches and possessions he's going to get to use, but he's going to put up some numbers, maybe not monster numbers, but good numbers. We don't usually associate rookie the year. It's not one of those awards where it's wins dependent. But if you're a really productive rookie on a top four, top five team,

that's going to give you a big boost, too. And he does look ready on day one. And obviously just the partnership with John Morant, lobs, pick and roll, everything. he certainly looks like he is the worthy consensus leader. And I just, I didn't, this was not a place where I was going to zag. I'm glad, were you working a Zach here? Oh, you said zag?

Oh, my bad. Like go some other crazy direction just for the sake of being a contrarian. I thought we had to play on words there. But look, I'm glad I let you go because you just put that so eloquently for every single reason you just said. I just think the value of being on a potentially good team with what he's going to do. Let me throw this stat at you real quick. I got this.

I saw it on Twitter. Dean Oliver. Most post-ups in the preseason, I think he had 21 post-ups. And per post-up, he's averaging 1.31 points per possession on those post-ups. League average is 1.04 per post-up. For reference, Yokic is at 1.14 points per post-up. The man is a force in the paint. To your point, I don't know how much they're going to use him.

To my point, I don't know it's going to be very interesting to see the recipe. They choose what they think they need to do with that roster. But because Jai is so electric and he's going to eat off of all of that as well as his dominance in that post area, I like him too. Look at Raja coming with the advanced stats from Dean Oliver. Love it. Look at that. A little homework, dude, a little homework. No, it's good stuff.

And I think, like I say, I think the wins are actually going to help. It doesn't often come to play with rookie of the year. but this is certainly one of those cases. The Grizzies are just going to be really fascinating. Defensive player of the year. I fear we are possibly going right back into predictability territory here with consensus territory. But who you got for DPOY? Yeah, I'm going with Wemby.

I mean, I think that's the clear progression for him as a defender. Second and defensive plus minus fifth in defensive winchairs, eighth and rebounds. Most games with at least five blocks or more 24 last year. I just think that's the natural course of events and ascension for him as a defensive player, Wembe. We're going to go into the season going, it's got to be Wembe, but let's keep looking and see if it's it might be somebody else, but I think we're all like it's, and not to put too fine a point on it.

It's not like everybody truly like decides on day one, but sometimes there's such an overwhelming consensus about somebody that you think, okay, they're just in the lead spot. And let's just see if anybody emerges who can displace him, right? And this is one of those cases. He was already incredibly dominant as a rookie. He's only getting better. The spurs should only be getting better. I think the biggest issue or wrinkle in this particular discussion, Raja, is historically, that I didn't go all the way back.

I went back as far as I could on my flight out. But almost every defensive player of the year in recent memory has been on a top five, often even top two team in terms of defensive efficiency. And granted, we have the ability these days to parse out stats and say, oh, well, but with Wembe on the floor, they would have been number one or whatever it was last season. It's not that. It's not that we're like trying to burden him

with the crappiness of the rest of the roster and saying it's the team defensive efficiency. But it is for this reason. And I say this as somebody who's been a voter on all these awards for most of the last 20-something years. Like, the reason I won't take, I won't vote for an MVP at the top of the ballot anyway

if that team was like a 45-win team is because, not because his, that guy's stats were any less or because that guy was any less great, it's because it's not most outstanding player. It's MVP, and the value is about winning. Like, what's the point of being an MVP if your team was sixth in the conference? Same thing with defensive player of the year. And I get it. I think Michael Pina made the case. I think Rissilo made the case for Wembe for defensive player of the year last season. My feeling is to push back on that is he may have been the most outstanding defensive player, yes.

But to be defensive player of the year while on a team that finished in the bottom third of defensive efficiency just doesn't feel right, doesn't sound right, doesn't look right. Like, what's the point of being a great defensive player and being the defensive player of the year if it didn't actually make your team a great defensive team? And I get it. That's not Wemby's fault. That's not the point. The point is the award captures something bigger than just your individual ability in both the, this one and MVP. That's the way I've always viewed these. That's historically the way these awards have gone, too, if you look at lining up team success and individual success. So the key

thing for this is going to be, how far can the Spurs get this year as a team defensively to bolster his case? Because if they end up in the bottom third of the league again, it's going to be a really interesting and difficult debate down, you know, at the other end of the season. So, So just throwing that out there. All right, we have come to the two weightiest of preseason predictions. We will get to finals and champion in a second, but we got to go with MVP first. Raja, where are you heading for MVP? Yeah, this one was a two-horse race for me.

It was Luca and Shea. And I think I'm going to go Shea. I think I'm going to go Shea. I'm going to go Shea because I think team success, you know, to the points you just made about defensive player of the year, defensive player of the year, I think he's going to, I think they win the West again, which, I mean, we'll get into that. But I think he's going to take another step, you know, in terms of leadership, in terms of, you know, kind of maybe rounding out that offensive, you know, repertoire a little bit.

He was already phenomenal. I just think he's on the Ascend like that. I like Shea to win the MVP this year. It's definitely on the table. He's definitely, what was he, second last year? He will probably be no worse than top two or three. He may win it all this year. I thought long and hard about whether Shea would be my pick.

And I ultimately did not choose him because I think the thunder are so deep now. They already were. And, you know, Jalen Williams is, going to take another step you expect, and they've added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein now. Shea may need to do a little bit less. So, like, the outstanding box score part of this might dip a little bit just because he's got the luxury of so many weapons. The team success, you know, we saw this with, like, you know, Tatum hasn't really been able to break through in the MVP discussions the last couple years. I think he's, I think he's finished

top five, and I think he was, like, sixth last year or seventh. And the ensemble aspect of the Celtics kind of tamped down how much you, how much credit you gave to their, to their best player. Right. And I think that could happen a little bit to Shane the Thunder too. I don't know. But you're also right, too. Like if they run away with it, if they like win 65, 67 games or something, it may just become undeniable, right? Like it's the team's success.

This is why we factor the stuff in, folks. Like the team's success that he is powering may just make it overwhelming. and maybe he does beat my pick, which is, of course, Luca Donchich. Listen, the general framework for me for MVP, Raja, I do think you have to be on a 50-plus win team. Hopefully top two or top three in your conference,

top four minimum, and having the dominant stats matters, Lucas always filled up the box score. He's always been just absolutely incredible and incredibly efficient. I think last season you saw Lucas start to take a little bit more responsibility defensively. I think you saw him really do a great job of incorporating Kyrie and then PJ Washington

and Gafford and making the most of Derek lively and really getting his rookie season off to a great start. They're starting with all these guys now, the guys they picked up midseason and they've acquired Clay. Like, Luca's got that much more support around him, I think. And like the Mavericks should be top two in the West in the regular season. They absolutely should be. And I, the one thing I've no doubt about is that Lucas stats and Lucas production are going to be incredible as they always are. I think the only thing that's held him back from winning this award to date is that the Mavericks just haven't been dominant enough as a team. That's the team element that comes to play. So wait, let me get this right. Let me get this right. The case, I mean, the factors that you used

to tell me that Shea wasn't going to win with the supporting cast and all of that are the same factors you're going to use to support why Lucas is going to win it? Kerm, did I get I got that right, Kerm? That's what it sounded like. Kerm paused just a second because he's just close enough that I can throw shit at him

now that we're in the same room. Fair, is. Ish. Every, every, every individual's case is different in the sense that Luca has had MVP caliber seasons for X number of years running, right?

But the Mavericks were like bottom part of the playoffs. bracket. The Mavericks were not, and I think they finally broke top four last year, but they were not a perennial 50 win team or perennial clear contender. And I always look for a guy who's anchoring a clear contender. Shea was already on a clear contender, and I did have him, I think I had him second last year on my ballot. Luke has not been on a clear contender, even though the Mavericks became a contender last year, to the surprise of everyone. Yeah, of course you're supporting cast matters. Like, these things are baked in. They all go hand in hand. So it's not that I'm saying, like, you're right on some level, Raja, but it is always this sliding scale.

We are always trying to figure out how much to weigh the individuals' outstanding play and how much to weigh the team success. And to have team success, you have to have good teammates, of course. But the players that the Mavericks picked up in my defense of my argument, the players that they picked up that I'm citing, Washington, Gafford, Lively's Development as a rookie, now lively going into year two. It's more that you need great competence around you. It's not like they're going to cut into Luca's usage rate,

whereas I think in the case of the thunder, Shea's usage rate and the burden on him might actually decrease a little bit based on how many guys they've got and on Jalen Williams' emergence. So it's more that. That may sound like a distinction without a difference to some people, but it is a different thing.

It is a different thing. I'm just going to push back again, though. If you said Jalen Williams cutting into to Shea or Kyrie with Luca. Caii didn't cut into Luca hardly at all. Well, I mean, let's not say cut in. I mean, in terms of like, in terms of like perception of tandem stars, I would go with Kyrie having, Luca having more support with Kyrie then.

But that's either here or there. I think a lot of it's going to hinge and you touched on it. Yeah. With these two, I think they're both going to have great stats. Team success. If one of them completely, you know, outpaces, the other, I think, you know, said player is going to have a much greater opportunity to win the award. Yeah, like, I think of it this way. Like, if the, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if,

if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, the, if, the, if, the, the, the, the, the, success is going to weigh so heavily. If the, if, you know, in a couple wins of each other, whether, you know, in any order, one, two, right? But if, if, if, if, if, if, if it's, uh, okay, C, Dallas Dallas, Dallas, OKC, but it's like 60 versus 58, we're going to probably lean more into like who had the better overall season individually. No doubt.

Not to stretch this out because my computer is about to die, but like as a voter, as a voter, as a voter, do you guys, is there any, is there any, like, uh,

sentimental like man, Luca's been right there. Like, um, you know, like there's voter fatigue sometimes for like MVP's. Is there any, hey man,

it's his time. Like, given a tight race where it could go either way. I don't actually believe in voter fatigue, but that's a whole rant and discussion for another day. I understand that a lot of people, including people in my position, who are writers and other media people who have covered the league and are actual voters, will sometimes say, oh, you know, Yokit, like, for instance, Yokich, Yokch isn't going to win it again this coming season because it would be four and five years. And the only guy to do that was LeBron. And we're just not going to give it to Yokic again. I understand why people say that, and I'm not going to say that I am somehow above it all,

or that subconsciously that can't seep in. Of course, these things can seep in. I do my damnedest, Raja, I swear, to look at every season on its own merits. I am not thinking about, oh, Lucas overdue. I'm not thinking about, oh, Yolkich already got hit. I truly am not. And if the Nuggets, like, wildly exceed expectations and, like, Yokic revives Russell Westbrook's career and, you know, turns Dario Sarich into an all-star, like, and the Nuggets win 60 games, yeah, we're going to be vote.

A lot of people are going to be voting for Yokic. The reason he's not in the discussion as firmly this preseason as the past few years is because we don't expect as much of the Nuggets, period. And that matters. So, no, I don't, I would not vote for Luke out of some sort of sentiment or like he's overdue. He's definitely been good enough to win it if his team had been better. but Shea is kind of not as long in that group, but he's in that same kind of category, right?

Hasn't won it yet, definitely worthy. And that brings us to, of course, the most important, the weightiest, and the one that will haunt us most. Our picks for the NBA finals, our ultimate championship pick, as I said at the outset of this episode, there's just so many candidates.

There's so many combinations you could come up with, and then they're all plausible. They're all plausible. It's all a matter of how adventurous you want to get in October. So how adventurous did you want to get, Raja? Who's your pick for the finals? No, I used the Google Maps on this one, baby. Straight chalk.

We took it right down the favorites line. I went with the Thunder and the Celtics, Howard. The Western Conference, I feel really good about the Celtics. The Western Conference, I think I feel less good about. but as I started running all the different scenarios and going over why this could work and why that wouldn't work. And I just, I felt better about, I felt better about that, man. I like the moves that they made when the Caruso, if you go back and dig through the crates, like when the Caruso trade went down, I was not like a huge, I don't want to say supporter,

but like I wasn't like, oh my God, that made them exponentially better. But the more I've thought about that, I see that, I understand that. I feel that now. heart I think they've gotten better in a way that keeps them at the top of the West what happens in the playoffs you never really know

but I like them I think I would if I had to bet I would bet them and the Celtics in the finals I tried Roger I tried so hard to get creative here or not creative or just to stay away from the chalk it could be Dallas again

it could be Minnesota potentially it's on the table. I don't really trust anyone else in the West. I actually think the West may just be those three teams. But the more we've talked about Phoenix today, I feel like I can't leave them out. So it may be a four-team race,

but it's a four-team race where one team, the Thunder, has the clear advantage in depth and continuity and health, Hartnstein being banged up right now, notwithstanding. They've just got, and they're young and their spry they've just got so much going for them and they won the most games in the West. Like, if you're picking against the thunder,

like, I'm open to the case for anybody who does. Hit us at Real Ones Mailbag? That's right. Real One's Mailbag at Gmail. Why is that so hard for me to remember and or say? It's just really long. It, like, rolled off your tongue.

It rolled off your tongue earlier. You were flowing. Hit us with your alternate your case for anybody else. but I just, the Thunder's case is so freaking strong. Unless I'm just trying to be a contrarian, I feel like it's foolish to bet against them. So I can't get around them. The Celtics, like I made the case a couple weeks ago on this pod.

I could see the Knicks winning the East and the regular season because Tibbs, paddled the medal all the time, all that stuff. I go back and forth on the Knicks. Like I think they could be the second best team by, you know, easily in the East or, you know, a conference finalist, maybe even number one in the regular season. and there's other scenarios where there's so many changes they've made and now we've got

a whole subplot of McHale Bridges has broken jump shot and Josh Hart talking about he's not sure what his role is and now I'm like oh maybe the Knicks have got maybe it's been too much change too soon too quickly and I don't know

the Sixers two or their three stars are out opening night that's kind of a bad omen I don't want to put too much in it the box it's hard Roger I really really want to

to pick somebody other than Thunder and Celtics. And yet here we are, we are unanimous on this pod, Thunder and Celtics. Maybe we can mix it up. Kerm, you got anybody other than Thunder and Celtics? Or like, it's just unavoidable? I want to, I'm just putting this energy out there because, you know, the only thing I love more than watching the Lakers win

is watching the Celtics lose. So I really want to believe in the Knicks as like a finals team this year. I think they have the wings that could at least guard Brown and Tatum, like on paper. Like, that's starting five should match up very well with the Celtics. So I'm going to go, fuck it. I'm going to go, I'm going to go Knicks. So now I'm on record for the worst takes five when it comes out. Now my take could go up there because I'm betting on the Knicks and the Knicks never win shit.

Way to drag him in. Way to drag him in, Howard. Listen, man, if we got to get pummeled in the spring with Kerm going to the archives with a bunch of stuff that we forgot we'd even said, the least we can do is put him on the record on at least one thing. All right. And our winner then, your champion, Raja, in the Thunder Celtics-Al-Chalk clash in June?

Yeah, knockdown, drag-out finals. I could make a huge case for one, but I think ultimately I've got to repeat. The Celtics haven't been there, done that experience coming through, I like the Celtics. Wow. Kerm, not feeling it. Wow.

Anything but that, man. Like, is this the logical pick Howard? I'm just, Ed Roger, but like, anything but that, please. That was not your brain. That was your soul. That was actually crying out in terror. Literally. I'm going thunder over Celtics.

We did a roundtable for this. It's on the ringer.com. Go check it out. All of our NBA staff did all of our preseason predictions and other tidbits. And I went thunder over Celtics on the premise that the second time through is harder. Even if they don't have a championship hangover, they make it back to the finals.

The path to back to the finals, I think is just going to be tougher and not just the wear and tear of going to the finals and then, obviously, Tatum played in the Olympics, you know, Holiday and Dwight and Derek White played in the Olympics. Like, there's just a lot of, a lot for them to get through.

And then when they get to the playoffs, assuming health, it's going to be a much, harder path, whether it's the Knicks, the Sixers, the Bucks, the Caves, the Pacers. I just think that every round for the Celtics, I'm not one who's going to asterisk anybody ever, but their path was easier this past spring than it will be next spring. So I'm not comparing them to anybody else except themselves. It will be a harder path, and it may take more of a toll. And if they do get back to the finals, as we are both predicting, I think that that leaves them a little

bit more vulnerable. So as we sit here in October, if I got to make silly guesses about what's going to happen in June, I got the thunder over the Celtics narrowly. Oklahoma celebrates its first championship. How about that? Yeah, I'm not going to argue with that. I mean, again, I, and you know what, you touched on that I think it's really interesting. You really can't. There's no way to really quantify it or tell how much of an effect that is. But I think it got lost for me when thinking about these teams. Obviously the path to what they drew this year versus what they could potentially draw. But the amount of people they had on Olympic runs, you know, playing, that's a lot of basketball.

People don't really take that into account as much as they should when they're going into like the following season and expectations. Like how much basketball did your stars play? Like how deep have you been in consecutive years? and I think that's important. So I could totally see that. The Jalen Brown snub suddenly is in their favor. Jalen Brown's fresh.

Don't get me started. I mean, that rant, if you want to hear a rant, if we got another hour, just give me, like, clear the floor, give me the ISO. We did a version of that one back in, what, August, I think? So people go check that one out in the archive. And this one's going into the archive so that Kerm can trot it out next spring and thump us over the head with it.

By then, Logan will be back, and he'll just be laughing out our asses because he didn't have to go on the record with anything. I tried, folks. I tried. I did text Logan. I tried to get him on the record. I said, listen, man, you don't have to come on the pod. Just send me your picks.

Just send, nope, nope. Logan's staffed this one out. Craftier than he looks. My boy, okay, Logan, I see you. All right, that's it for today. Everybody enjoy opening night, opening week. We will be back next Tuesday. We will probably be wrong about 17 things by then already,

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