The Ringer NBA Show - Are the Celtics Historically Dominant? Plus, Future Power Rankings. | Group Chat

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

Justin, Rob, and Wos start by discussing the dominance the Celtics have shown this season and also share some takeaways from their fourth-quarter collapse against the Cavaliers (3:53). Then they each rank the top five teams they think have the brightest futures over the next five years (23:05). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producers: Isaiah Blakely, Chia Hao Tat, and Victoria Valencia Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Every true football fan knows that the NFL season truly begins after the Super Bowl champion has been crowned, and the ringer NFL feed will keep you on top of all the news still happening around the league and heading into the 2024-25 season. I'm Sheila Capadia. And every Monday and Friday, Ben Solac and I deliver Sharp takes the debates on the draft, free agency, training camp, and beyond an extra point ticket. And every Wednesday, it will have dual threat where Stephen Ruiz and yours truly, Nora Pinciotti, dive deep into all of the big offseason developments, with Ringer favorites Austin Gale and Lindsay Jones stopping by occasionally to share their

expert football analysis. Subscribe to the Ringer NFL show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. And don't forget to follow the Ringer NFL on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, and X at Ringer NFL. The group chat, I am Justin Barrier, joining as always, Big Was, and back on the scene, Rob Mahoney. Rob, welcome back. How's your time away from us? It was lovely, but, you know, I was listening back to your pod with Kyle Mann.

A lot of things were said about the virtues of being a young and dominant player in the NBA. And I'm sad I wasn't here to push back a little bit on Wembe Fever. He's sensational, but also, come on. I thought you were going to say because you're such a young and young phenom here that you wanted to be part of that conversation to represent. No, it's quite the opposite. I'm old and washed and I look down on young people. and I make them prove it in the spirit of Waz, in the regular season, in the playoffs, in the finals, and then do it all again.

That's right. We're just getting started. So let's pump the brakes respectfully a little bit. Also, I just love the energy you coming back with, Rob, after being in America's heartland for a few days. And now you're back on the coast, but you still got that, you know, that can-do spirit. Well, I didn't get out my can-do spirit in the honky-tong like you did, Waz. You exercise that energy. I still got it all pent up.

So I'm yohan and ready to go. Come on, man. Went in Rome, Texas, two step. Come on now. I'm glad that everyone's getting these scheduled off days off here. Meanwhile, I'm still here. I'm grinding. Grinding.

What are you guys going to do when I surpass 40,000 podcast hours on Kutchev? Should we, like, just stop the pod and you guys will just present me with like, that's gold Jeff Kuntz dog that I've placed on the table here? We're going to present you with an honorary fancy-ass latte. That'll be. your trophy. I was thinking we could hang up one of your flannels on the wall like Nate Robinson's

Summer League style. You'll be the first podcast jersey retired. The hoodie I've worn for like 19 of the 30 podcasts we've done. Yeah. I will say though, I think we've played out the holding a sheet of paper and just putting a number on it. Like it was funny when Devin Booker did it when he had 70 and whatnot. And it was like

kind of still funny when guys were doing it this year as like numbers were flying off the shelf there. but, like, LeBron just holding $40,000? It's just like... That's not a thing, LeBron. Sorry. It's just a sheet of paper at that point. That's not...

Our grandkids are not going to be looking at that picture. Like, wow, LeBron really scored 40,000 is not... It's not going to have the same will effect. No. But what they will be talking about is your Boston Celtics, who are just crushing teams this year. Or at least they were until last night, because we decided on this topic before Tuesday night's slate of game.

They had 1-11 straight. They're threatening the 96-97 bulls in terms of net rating. The net rating is still pretty remarkable, but we'll get to that. And then our guy from Mudvane hit every three-pointer that could possibly be taken in that fourth quarter. And then here we are once again dealing with a fourth quarter collapse from the Celtics. Who wants to go first, I guess? I think Dean Wade might have saw that he wasn't picked in our draft in the indie and took it personally. That's right. Okay. And it was like next year, I'm making that draft and I'm going to be one of the first 12 picks or so taken. I mean, you know. Wait, this is an annual exercise now? Why not? I mean, it was such a raving success, Rob. Come on, man. What's wrong with you, brother? You got to give the people what they want. But no. I like having a job is what's wrong with me. We got away with one. And I'm a little tepid beyond that.

Okay. I guess we could change it to European. players or whatever. We can figure out some other what other demographic would you like to hit? I like the globalist agenda. I think that's a good way to move it. The Dean Wade explosion in the fourth quarter, I mean, it's obviously the kind of thing

that you don't plan for, you know. It's not something that he's in the habit of doing all the time. It's one of those things on the regular season night in the NBA. You know, Mowgli goes down. Donovan Mitchell's not even playing. And an unexpected role player

sort of catches fire. and it catches the best team, quote-to-quote in the NBA off guard, right? I don't take too much from it, although if you are a Boston skeptic, which, you know, some people might be, you might notice that their, you know, crunch time offensive execution left a lot to be desired. And I know that's going to be a tired trope until they prove it in the postseason that they can be competent in the culture. And I think at points in this season, I've seen. seen them look pretty good in the clutch, right? And running stuff and getting great offense that didn't involve Tatum or Brown just trying

to take guys one-on-one. So I don't think they're wholly incapable of it. But, you know, as they say, old habits die hard. They're also really great at those early and mid-fourth quarter runs that prevent crunch time from ever happening in the first place. So I really don't want to bag on them too much. The Celtics are an exceptional team, if not the favorite, then certainly the favorite to come out of the east.

they do have these moments though where the offense gets a little gummy down the stretch where they play with their food in some of these games where they really shouldn't and you know sometimes you get caught by Dean Wade when you do that but I honestly don't think that's their problem if you look at their playoff outlook if you look at their championship outlook

they have some issues in terms of working out those late game offensive possessions and keeping to the spirit of how they like to play but ultimately this is a team with enough to win overwhelming talent a definitive style, a defense that is absolutely smothering, and that drop the ball a little bit on a random Tuesday night. Well, I feel like I almost want to have a Monday morning quarterback sort

of conversation here, because what you typically see in football, more prominently in college football than the NFL is when a team is dominant, they're like, well, what happens when they actually get into close games, right? This happens all the time, where it's like they blow teams out by 30 and 40. Like, what happens when it is, as the philosopher, Bigwas one said, nut crunching time. And so on the one hand, yes, this does kind of bring to the four a lot of the fears I think everyone has about the Celtics in general. But I almost wonder if these reps are actually probably good for them in the long run.

Honestly, I almost wonder if it's good simply because you're getting a lot of experience that Jason Tatum might not be the guy you want to go to in these situations last night, just kind of backing down to Darius Garland, not getting anywhere and then taking a fall away and hoping that he kicked out his leg and got fouled wasn't the best option, I would say, to call down the stretch. But I thought it was interesting that, what was it, a possessionary to? Before that, Derek White, Christophs, Perzingus, pick and roll,

looked pretty nice. And so, like, if you're actually moving away from Tatum, I actually don't think that's a bad thing for them long term was. But then he can't apply the Kobe system to everything. So that becomes its own problem. But no, listen, if you guys will allow me to play devil's advocate, on why the Celtics might not perform to the levels that people think that they will in the postseason.

And this is obviously they're a very perimeter-oriented team. Yes, they have a lot of high-quality shooting, but we know that there's a high variance of shot-making, of long-distance shot-making. So sometimes those shots are just falling, and you make 23s, and you beat a team by 50, and it looks great, and everybody's patting you on the ass. Other games in a seven-game series, that might not be the case, and you need to have counters.

They cannot just jump-shoot their way to an NBA championship. There has to be a balance to this, whether that is KP beating mismatches, when teams try to put smaller people on them or Tatum or Brown attacking the lanes that are created by having a genuine five-out offense out there at all times. somebody has to get something going to the basket or be doing something that sends them to the free throw line. Maybe you don't get all the way to the rack, but the threat of you getting there is drawing all of these fouls, right? There has to be a diversity incorporated here, man. Any DEI of offense, if you will, guys,

if this thing is going to work. Yeah, like that. You really shook me what that one was. The thing about the Celtics is they do have those counters. They do have all of the options they should ever want. The issue with them is always, when it doesn't go well, it's identification. It's are you settling a little bit too much? Are you going to your best options?

And I don't even think it has to be the Derek White, KP, pick and roll type stuff, Justin. I think you can use Tatum as the ball handler and have Derek White screen for him and get smalls on him. And honestly, for Jason Tatum to get Darius Garland at the end of this game, I know that's a tough shot and he tried to draw the foul by kicking out. That's not a matchup I hate. That's not a premise I'm opposed to. Oh, sure. Yeah.

And if anything, the Celtics this year, a lot of their success is driven by just being tactically more proficient than every other team. Like the shift from the Marcus Smarts and the Brogdens and all that, they kind of like exercise the nervous energy or just kind of that shakingness where it's like, oh, we don't really know what's going to happen. You kind of like know where they're. going to go. And if not, Missoula has been very creative in finding

solutions because these guys are just so versatile. I mean, it's not to the level of their exposure and what he does with the heat, for instance, but like, there is that kind of factor where it's like, I could use Drew Holiday on a post-up or he could be in the corner to shoot at three. It's like everyone has like almost every option on the table.

And it's kind of remarkable just like what they're able to do. And I think Missoula deserves a lot of credit in order to just like figure this thing out on the fly. And that's if you're going to be optimistic. is the case for the Celtics in a seven-game series, that having that amount of sample, they could find something that works over that time.

Unfortunately, like, there are times when it still could get down to the wire and you just want to go to a guy, and it's just like the simple stuff still feels like it's not there. Yeah. I thought that's where this game was telling, because the Celtics are, like, they have an incredible scouting apparatus, right?

They know what you want to do. They know how to counter it with the variety of personnel that they have, and they're very creative about deploying those guys. And that's what makes me think that if they are going to lose, specifically in the Eastern Conference, if they're not going to make it to the NBA finals this year, it's going to be from these sorts of random Dean Wade type explosions, the kind of like unknown unknowns who are like popping out from the roster because they're going to put the clamps on your best players. They're really going to challenge them.

And they're going to challenge them in ways that you are kind of unorthodox and that you may not be used to. And you're going to get pressure from angles that you weren't accustomed to beating. And so if you have role players who can step. step up in these moments and do go above and beyond anything you would expect of them. That's kind of the only way to poke holes in Boston's defense right now. Because otherwise, they really do an impeccable job of taking away your best stuff. Yeah, I don't think Boston's defense is quite as dominant as some of the, you know, the more

dominant units like I think of the heat or I think of obviously Minnesota. But I think, like you said, they're good enough that you have to be of high quality to generate consistent good looks against them, which I mean, at the end of the day, in 2024's NBA, that's as good as you need going forward. For me, again, I think whether they succeed or fail is not going to be because

of their defense, not being quality enough. I think it's just a matter of will they execute, will they be able to generate high quality looks? And again, people got to remember, Drew Holiday is making every single three right now. And it's beautiful

in the regular season. The last Three playoffs, man, this guy has not been a plus offensive player. And that goes from the shots. The shots not falling to just the straight-up decision-making has been nasty at times for Drew Holiday. And I think he's going to have to, this shooting is going to have to carry over if this stuff is still going to work. Of course, we know how old Al Horford is. We don't need to beat that with a drum. But I think the simple stuff they're going to be able to do, I just think are they going to be mentally,

tough enough to execute when it matters against the best teams and only time would tell. But like, I don't think, you know, we should dock them for being a dominant regular season team, right? Absolutely not. They're doing their job. The three point stuff is very interesting to me. So they have the league's highest three point rate. And I stole this from John Hollinger. Nearly every other shot is a three point. And as we've seen, they have spaced the floor to make those shots at the rim easier for them. They didn't get a ball handler in there. They just wanted everything to get easier, and it has been. The lane is wide open as soon as they hit them.

And to your point, if Holiday isn't hitting as well as he had, if Jalen Brown starts missing those shots that Draymond Green is baiting him into. Can we just say something, please? Yes. Just because Jaylen Green is shooting 34% on threes, does not mean you can give him practice threes all game. The threes that he's shooting. 34% on are not wide open, uncontested,

literally lick his finger to check which direction the wind is blowing. Like, that's not a thing. Don't leave Jaila Brown wide open. Rest of NBA. That's not a strategy, y'all. I have to imagine he just, like, knew something about him from the finals and it was like, I can get in this guy's head. Maybe.

That actually giving him this much space will just kind of fuck with them in a way that might disrupt everything. That's just obvious. But that's not a thing, guys. Like, that's not a strategy. But if you're the Warriors, and if you're any run-of-the-mill playoff-level team, you look at the Celtics and you say, like, what do we do? Like, what do we do with these guys? Because your wingstopper is probably not going to be good enough to take Jason Tatum out.

Whoever your guards are are not going to be frenetic enough in rotation to take away all the movement and all the passing and all the spacing. And so whatever you have protecting the rim, this isn't a team that's completely reliant on getting there or on drawing foul. And that is a limitation for them in some of these hard-fought games, but it also allows them to work around some of the elite defenses. Yeah, and that's the flip side of what you were saying was with like the three-point shooting. If Drew isn't hitting, like it also, I mean, there are levels to this.

It's like he can go from maybe one of the best corner three-point shooters in the league right now to just average, which would still be pretty damn good. And they do have now a reserve of guys to throw in there if like you needed more spacing for whatever reason. I mean, Al Horford, as he kind of like gimps up and down the, court is still a respectable shooter from out there. Sam Hauser is the more extreme option. Obviously takes some stuff away from there. And so like, there's just like the lot, the logical like brain of thinking with the NBA.

Like, it's really hard to find issues with the team at this point. But then it's just like that lizard brain sort of like, can I really just trust these guys to make a goddamn shot when they need to? I'm just going to say this. We've seen some plus minus, uh, you know, net. Roading monsters, dragons, get slain in the playoffs in the last few years. The Milwaukee Bucks of Boothin'Holes are vintage immediately come to mind. I don't see why I should be looking at this Celtics team any different from those teams, right?

Like, that's just my personal opinion. And I would present this to the group. If you could take the Celtics or the Eastern Conference field right now on what is this, March 6th, who are you taking, Justin? Celtics, 100%. In the east? I'm taking the field. If you offer me anybody versus field, I'm taking field.

Field me. I mean, how are you feeling about the bucks these days? Because all of a sudden, like, Doctor wants to be watching the box recently, brother. Has some impassioned locker room speeches, and all of a sudden, everything looks amazing. Look, Bobby Portis back from the dead. The bucks are a clearly flawed team. I think their flaws are so much easier to notice than Boston's. But I think they're still a very talented team, right?

However, and we've been saying this all freaking year up here, they've literally just done the bare minimum tweaks. You know, Dame, it's kind of crazy. Dame has been giving these interviews in media recently where he's not saying Adrian Griffin's name, but he's talking about what Doc is doing. He's like, um, he's like, yeah, Doc has got me coming to the right side and then going left, which is how I've always done it in Portland.

Doc came. They were like, oh, did Doc come in? Did you tell Doc, oh, these are the things I like to do, blah, blah, blah. He was like, these are the things we hated scouting about you guys. This is what we're going to run now, right? He said, it's just a matter of, like, explaining what you want to do, why you want to do it, what you're going to do with the team counters and blah, blah, blah, and explaining everybody's thing like, oh, you like to do this, but we need you to do this to win, blah.

He's just saying that Doc is coaching. Yeah. What was left unsaid was Adrian Griffin wasn't doing none of that shit. That's what he didn't say, but it's ultimately what he's saying. But they look way better. And like, obviously, the Clippers are coming off of a back-to-back, and that was a nice scrappy win at home for an underman buck's team. No Janus, no Chris Middleton.

But that win can't happen if they don't have a general logic about how to be a team now. We're still obviously possessed right now. We had a lot of questions about Adrian Griffin's coaching was, but when Dame said sometimes Doc comes out there and just talks for 15 minutes at the beginning of practice, I'm like, that's literally his job. He's literally just talking about. He's just doing his job. What a coach is supposed to do?

It's insane. What if he was just talking about Shogun? Like, he's like, poof. Just getting the takes off. You see that cinematography? Yeah. I'm into. I'm into.

I'm into the, I'm into Shogun two episodes in, by the, hell yeah, I was. No, it doesn't surprise me. I mean, we've said this even going into it. Doc is just so pragmatic about all this stuff. He doesn't need to prove anything. It seemed like Adrian Griffin was just like trying to institute his way or the way that, like, he thought made sense for the team. And Doc just like, yeah, Dame, do what you do. Like, I'm not going to go overcomplicate.

Had dudes working OT in August and September. That's insane. I don't, I appreciate a grinder, to be honest. No, but I mean, I. For one, the Bucks do have their own postseason just demons to slay. Doc himself has those. So, like, you know, and one thing I will say is like the Celtics, yeah, they are net rating darlings. And we've seen that kind of just deflate in the playoffs before.

Like, but we are talking about like historic shit right now that even after last night's loss, their comp is the 73 win-waters at this point. And it could be the case where it's like, well, we're being too enamored with the big old numbers in front of us, but it could also be the case that we're trying to find flaws when the glaring red sign is saying like this team is historically great. Well, we're trying to find these flaws, as we're all agreeing, that the most likely outcome is Boston making it out of the East. Well, especially with the way the East looks. Relative to any one team, yeah, like, again, I'll take the field just because it smooths over all the weaknesses of the bucks and the heat and

all these other potential contenders, the Knicks and their health. Like, you don't want to bet on any one of those circumstances relative to a regular team. season juggernaut, but all of them collectively, I think, have a shot. And that's kind of where we are with Boston. It's like, it's them versus everybody. That's the standing and the level they've put themselves on. Can you guys name who is fourth in the Eastern Conference as of today, March 6th? Is Orlando? It is Orlando. But the question that you guys didn't know that, I think, speaks to like how jumbled everything is after the bucks and the and the calves. Like, it's pretty much a day-to-day thing. There's just like four teams at this point, just fighting it out just to

stay out of the play and mix. So yes, the road for the Celtics is paved with three-point shooters and just like the bodies of their victims. Bet the NBA with a no-sweat same-game parley from Fandul every Thursday with TNT Thursdays. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandul or already have an account. You'll get bonus bets back if your same-game parlay doesn't win on any NBA on TNT game. NBA same-game parley's same-game parley are the perfect way to combine your bets for a chance to score a bigger payday. So we're looking at Wednesday night in the NBA in particular. I'm looking at the calves and the Hawks. I know the calves have these injuries, Donovan Mitchell. We'll see. Evan Mowgli just got hurt, but the calves are still pretty good out there. They have Garland,

and he's rolling. So I like the calves plus two and a half against the Hawks on the road. And I also like Darius Garland minus 2.30 to score 20 plus points. As I mentioned, Garland's just like kind of in a groove here, especially with Mitchell out there. He's going to have the green light, unless unfortunately Dean Wade takes 23s and makes them all. So we'll see. However you want to play, just head to Fandul.com slash Ringer MBA to bet the NBA

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Fandul.com. So the Celtics are a good entry point into our next exercise. We do this every year around this time at this point. This has to be what? Second annual, maybe even third annual,

the future power rankings, which I have to say a year out, I feel pretty fucking good about last year's results. That's why you're asking about the magic. Now I see what you're done. Jesus Christ.

So just to remind people my balance last year, which was widely mocked. Number one, the Oklahoma City Thunder, feeling mighty good about that one. Number two, the Grizzlies. We must have did this before John Morant was suspended. I have to assume, right? Yeah. Yeah. And then three Celtics, four of 76ers. Number five, your Orlando Magic storming up the charts, baby. Everyone told me, oh, the bucks. The bucks are so good. and yada yada yada yada but bucks are still pretty good bucks are still pretty good you know

there's still light years ahead of what the magic want to be want to do hope to be someday that's right but just because the government gave him a bailout doesn't mean that the housing crisis did not happen and that your boy didn't predict it so i'm not sure that metaphor but we're trying to connect that in post but i don't know what he's doing with that no i got i got the big thing right but ultimately the apparatus is still out there functioning, you know? Sure. I think it works. All right.

All right. We'll go with it. So what we're doing here is top five teams over the next five years. Anything we want to talk out here just in terms of Rob? To me, it's who I think will win the most games, regular season and playoffs combined over the next five years. Okay. So that is where I differ. just slightly.

I kind of look at it more in the spirit of the whole thing and a little bit more. Those fan bases will be the happiest over the next five years. More like organizational rankings. Like who has the best runway over those next five years, not necessarily specifically the win counts. Because if we're just going to go by win counts, it's just like, why don't we just rattle off the top of this?

But it's five years, though. That's what makes it interesting. A lot can change in five years. A lot can change in five years. Like, for instance, I could see the Lakers winning more games in the match. magic for the next two years. Right.

But over five years, I don't know how you can make that prediction. That's crazy to me. So to me, it's like, who over a five-year span is going to win the most regular season and post-season games? Okay. Yeah. I think that's a fair way to frame it. And I also weighted, I would say, more towards championship equity for this than I

might for other exercises. Like, who is a realistic shot at winning the title in these upcoming five seasons? Okay. So, was, do you want to go with your number five? My number five is going to surprise you guys, but not really. It's the New York Knicks. Oh, I really do. I had them at four.

I have them at number five because, one, Jalen Brunson is young. He's clearly the leader, the focal point of the team. They got Ananobie in there. They have institutional stability for the first time in 25 years. And I think they're poised to upgrade what is already a top five, top four Eastern Conference team for the long run. Like, they can bring in a guy who's relevant. relatively young and who will be very good and will be additive to what's already happening right now. So to me, the NICs have a bright future ahead of them because of what's already in place and their ability to improve upon it.

So, like, yeah, I got the NICS at number five here. One quick question on them. Do we think Josh Hart's body will be ground to dust in five years? Or OGs, or Julius Randalls, or Brunsonson. It's going to be ashes And the urn is going to sit on top of tips mantle In his living room for sure It's not even going to go to his family

The skull of Taj Gibson Yeah So on the one hand The Knicks have struck a balance Between being good now And having a pathway to being better in the future In a way that like It's kind of remarkable

Especially for the Knicks A team that just like hasn't gotten it right For decade after decade after decade At this point before OG and Randall went out they were third in the east and climbing. I think we were talking about them is probably the second best team in the east there. So they could stand Pat, just bring OG back and just roll this back, and they would still be in the mix there in the east. But as well, as mentioned, they do have, they're the gross stock in a very traditional way. And on the one hand, we have seen big markets

have success with that model again and again, despite all the different team building tactics and changes to the CBA, the model is stars want to play in New York and in Los Angeles. and also the Bay, et cetera, but those are, like, that is where you want to be if you want to play on this level. I guess the one quibble to that is like, well, the new CBA is going to make it incredibly tough to do so. I do wonder, like, what sort of player is going to want to go to New York there, especially because Brunson is now entrenched there. So you wonder, like, what are the ripple effects for Donovan Mitchell, et cetera? And do they have, like, the package to overwhelm a team with teams like Utah and whatnot out there, being able to steal, for instance,

dame away from the heat and bring them to another team. But there's just so many options here, and that's why I have them at four. Yeah, and the guys that they have, specifically Ananobe, being able to be a combo three, four, lets you target lots of different potential stars. But if they are a growth stock, and I agree that they are,

they are heavily dependent on that star hunting dream paying off. Because right now, Brunson, Ananobie, and Randall all in or entering the prime of their career, This is kind of the player that all those guys are going to be for the most part. Some subtle improvements along the way, but you're not expecting any of them to jump by leaps and bounds. And even their role players are further along in their career than you might think. You know, these are guys who had long college careers who came into the NBA who are established talents, who are what they are. And so the Knicks are an emergent team, but I wouldn't say they're necessarily a young one.

They do need that kind of one piece to put them over the top to get them into this like top five group. I think what makes that case compelling is that after the first three in these future power rankings, everything else is very negotiable to me. And so the Knicks are as good a candidate as anybody. Yeah. They have a lot of solid there, but they need someone else to come in there in order to take them to the next level. And yeah, you're right. I thought about not putting them on there for that reason.

Rob, who do you have at five? So I actually went with a throwback relative to our last year's rankings. And I'm surprised that I ended up here. but I picked the Memphis Grizzlies. Yeah, I respect that. And the pitch to me is very straightforward. John Morant, Desmond Bain, Jaron Jackson, good role players,

and what could be a top five pick in the summer's draft or whatever you can get by trading that pick. One of the biggest hangups with the Grizzlies has been the idea that maybe they need one more impact guy on the wing. And if that pick can get them there, whether by drafting a player or trading for one, that's a really compelling team. for what was already one of the surest bets to win 50 plus games season to season.

Yeah, well, I think that's a smart pick by Rob. I didn't put Memphis because it's just been so messy and nasty for over a year now. If the Knicks had a talent base as young and as talented as Memphis had right now, they'd be closing up shop. It'd be like, all right, we're done. We got our group. We're not in the superstar market business, blah, blah, blah. We're done.

We're here. We've reached our destination. So, like, I agree with you. It's just some of the outside stuff that is affected the team has been tough. But if these guys are healthy and have their head screwed on straight, yeah, they're a walking 50 win team so long as they show up. So I agree with that. I like that pick, honestly. They're on my long list.

They were on my outside looking in. Yep. On the long list, you have to respect just like what they've assembled with all these draft picks here. They were facing a cap crunch going into. this off season. And in a way, bottoming out, did clarify that because they picked their guys. And now on the one hand, Marant Bain, Jaron Jackson,

Jr. and Marcus Smart, that's $116 million right off the bat there. So they're committed, especially for as long as you want smart to be part of that core there. But they made decisions on guys like Stephen Adams and whatnot. And more importantly, I think in David Roddy, et cetera, more importantly, they got guys

like Vince Williams in there, G. J.J. Jackson. We'll see down the road here. He's been pretty good so far, but let's see him over the of a full season with the full complement of guys here and that top six pick that Rob is mentioning. So they did kind of just solidified the depth with young guys, young cheap guys in a way that I think is like really important for them in terms of sustainability. I think the question is just what you guys are kind of circling around there. It's like the fact that not only we don't know what's going on with Jha on a given day, let alone given year, but but also that like Bain and Jaron

Jackson when they were there without Jha weren't exactly gangbusters. The fact that they didn't like just buoy a competent team has me a little bit more worried for them. And that's why they're on the outside looking at as opposed to the top. And there was, and there used to be a certain level of excitement around Jaron Jackson. Like, you know, I remember my man Dave Dufour once ridiculously said he has Tim Duncan potential. But like, not everybody was that insane, but like people were generally really high on Jaron Jackson. It just doesn't feel like that anymore.

It doesn't feel like these disfranchised corners. game-changing kind of big anymore. So his star has dulled a little bit. But even that being said, he's still, man, he's still one of the highest quality big man in the NBA. And like any team would be dying to have somebody of his quality out there. Yeah, like the star has dimmed and the excitement has quieted, but he's one of the best defensive players out there still,

even though you're not hearing his name and they're running for a defensive player of the year for a fair reason. But the Grizzlies have been a top 10 defense this year, top five and six for a good portion of the year, despite having awful injury luck, despite it being a lost season. And that's who they've been for basically four straight years now, a reliable, bankable defense. And if you're getting some of the star power back

and you're hoping for better judgment from John Morant moving forward, that's a team that I think is fair to bet on. And we'll see what happens with Brandon Clark too. He's supposed to make his debut still at the end of the season at some point. If he can be a rotation player for him, it's been a minute since we've had some good Brandon Clark talk.

But that could be important for them. They do need bigs. They need size. They need to change the shape of their team a little bit. But I really like what they have. And I really like their potential as, you know, when you compare them to a team like the Timberwolves, for example, elite defense, a lot of questions on offense.

That's who Memphis has been for years now. And if anything, they have a little bit more upward mobility because of this draft pick and because they're getting so many other guys back from injury. Well, Rob, you know who is in the running for defensive player of the year? that's Victor Webbingyama baby because number five I have the San Antonio Spurs now they have one good player on this team that player might just cause a goddamn revolution in basketball and so I am just taking the one guy and saying we'll figure this shit out later I have seen Jesus in a churro bag wads tell me you're with me

I can't get there with you. Like, the cupboard is so damn bare over there. And, you know, whatever. They might go there play a development process. This isn't a team that generally swings for the fences. It feels like they're going to take it very slow, which to me means they're going to be pretty bad again next year, right? At least?

At least next year. And so, I don't know. It's hard for me to say in. like their five-year trajectory is something really exciting for me. I think Weminyama his trajectory is the sky as everybody said. I don't know if he's quite satchel page.

But I, we get it. But yeah, they didn't make the cut for me. Not for me. It's too bare. I have that as an honorable mention with the note, it's insane that you have to at least stop and think about it. Yeah.

Exactly. Yes. What I want to do is I want to come up with one of those shirts where it's like the name and and Ann Ann. And it's just guys with under three assists who have played 20 to 30 minutes on this team. It's like Johnson and

Vassell and Champany and Brannum. And it's just like all the people that have failed Victor Webbenyama over the course of this season. And yet they have fucking Victor Webinjama and he's incredible. Yeah. And they have a similar argument to the Grizzlies in the sense that they're going to get draft pick

help very soon. And they almost were in the running, I would say, to get two potential top 10 picks because Toronto owes them a pick, but I don't know if you guys have been paying attention to Raptors basketball lately. They're aggressively going after that pick. Yaka Pertil shutting it down basically with finger surgery. There's a lot of things happening that I imagine will help protect that selection for Toronto. But if we want to break this down, Justin, as our five-year timeline here, like, if this is year zero and then we have five full seasons after this, when do the Spurs make the playoffs?

I don't want to put a hard date on it, Rob. I just want to let them grow organically. I don't want to put expectations on them. Like our friend Ramona Shelburne is at the Death Star ESPN, just talking about like, when are they going to get, Wemby help? This is not that podcast. We are literally putting expectations on them.

That's what we're doing on this podcast. I would say, so playoffs, are we saying play in? Is the playoffs or no? Let's say they make the final eight. They're in a seven game series. I would say they're going to be way better the next expected to considering how bad they've been this season

next season. I think they'll be in the play-in and they'll be maybe not a thunder-esque jump, but they'll be more, they'll be the thunder last year probably. In the playing, Spunky, you're like oh God, this is something. And I think the potential for the year after that is where they take on. So they're going to have a top five MVP

candidate on their team next year? I don't want to say no. Look at the sky. In two years, you don't think Wembe could be in the MVP room. That said two years. I said next year. I said next year. year. Okay. Next year,

probably not. Okay. Am I going to my number four? Well, hold on. I do want to point out, Rob, with the draft picks was right there because not only do they have

the Raps picks, but they also have two from the Hawks, one from the Hornets, one from the Bulls, and a swap with the Hawks. So we're going to talk a lot about draft picks here. They actually have good draft picks.

Like the Thunder have 20 that might convey from the Clippers 10 years from now. They have bet against a lot of bad teams. I think that's going to come. The Hawks' picks are going to be nice. Sorry, no.

Number four from Wads. My number four is the Milwaukee Bucks. Mine too? My two? They have Janice Antitacompo. He's going to play at an MVP level for the next five years. Jesus Christ.

You guys do not learn anything from this exercise. I don't know how... What are you talking about? I don't know how I'm supposed to believe that this team doesn't have a bright future in the five-year window that we've chosen. They're right in the think of the championship race right now.

they're going to be there next year. When they finally get some picks and some more flexibility, they're going to be able to add to this thing, and they're still going to have Janice Ante Coupo under contract that entire time. Yeah, I believe in the future of the Milwaukee Bucks. And I'm not going to apologize for it, Justin.

Sorry. I don't know why we need to keep coming on this podcast and saying that it's a good thing to have one of the best players in the world in his prime on your team. Yes. I think it's just, you're ignoring some of the bad signs over the past year or two. Like, yeah, he re-opted on an extension that he didn't have to.

And so, yes, they do have them on their contract. But, like, why has he been so agro about being on one of the best teams in the NBA over the past season? Like, I know things weren't going. Because they were busted. Like, they needed help. They needed changes. And they got them. To an extent.

But then, if we're talking five-year runway, how many good all-star level years does Dame have left? One. two. Two. Yeah. And he's already diminished at this point. And like,

now you could say like maybe he hasn't been comfortable in that system. Seems like he's going through some personal stuff off the court, went through a divorce

out of Portland for the first time in over a decade. I'm totally like aligned with that and willing to say that maybe there's just something not right with him personally.

I just don't see the runway long term for this team and I don't see how they add anything else in there because it's not just dame. It's Chris Middleton who just seems to be in and out of the lineup.

even this season, even though he has been good when he played. Brooke Lopez, they had to overpay to come back in order to be what he is this year. And then it's just nothing. It's a whole lot of nothing. And I don't know how do you get to anything else? You're going to have to change things. I think picking them here, I don't know about you was, the way I was thinking of as like anchoring heavily on next season, 2024, 2025. This group with Doc, full training camp, an offseason to actually make a couple additions with exceptions.

That's probably going to be their best singular shot at a title. but I also look at it this way, which is right now the bucks are on pace for 54 wins, and let's say for the sake of argument, and per our previous pie exercise, they have roughly like a 10% chance to win the title. Are the Knicks or the Magic, for example, are they going to have any, like those credentials

at any point over the next five years? I think it's possible they won't. I think it's, I mean, you guess it's possible. I think it's highly likely that the magic specifically do not ascend to this level. where we're like, yo, like, if they don't make the conference finals, it's a bus. Yeah, I don't have the magic in my list, by the way. You know what I mean?

Oh, interesting, Justin. May a Copeland. Interesting. No, I'm just, you know, I grow. I change every year. If you have Janice on your team, if you have somebody who's playing at legitimately, not like Tatum, legitimately playing at an MVP level for the next three years, how are you not right in the mix?

I think the Knicks are a good comp here, though, where it's, I think the Nix, everything around their star players, even though the stars themselves aren't as good as Janus, are still like trending upward. Like, I agree with what you were saying before, Rob. So you'd rather be the Nix than the Bucks for the next five years. Next five years, yes. Yes. No. Yeah, I can't get behind that. I think at the very least they're going to have to trade Janus in three to four years.

Like, I just don't know where's the second wave. Like, if anything, they doubled down on the next. by trading for Dane, which I think is still the right move. Like, I agree with you guys. Wait, why do I have to trade Yonis? Huh? Why do I have to trade Yonis? Well, because he's just not going to want to play with A.J. Green coming off of his third team all-MBA season.

Disrespectful to A.J. Green. I think they'll be, because they'll become more flexible, certainly than they are right now in the immediacy after the Dame deal, I think they're still going to be very good. and they're still going to look at themselves as a puncher's chance of getting out of the East. So long as Janus is healthy and he's playing at the level at or close to the level that he is right now,

which again, the Knicks don't have anything close to Janus. And I know it's one guy, but like it's a freaking legitimate MVP candidate, all-time dominance from this guy. And like, I'm sorry, I'm taking that over, oh, I might be able to get Donovan Mitchell in my building to pair with another really small backcourt. I don't know.

I'm taking this. And again, I think eventually him and Dame are going to be complimentary and additive to one another as they developed his chemistry, which is another thing that I think matters. It's like we're building, we're going to build something

that actually makes Janus's life easier and better. and like even if Dane comes down from what he's doing as a surefire All-Star starter, all-MBA guy, it's still going to be pretty damn good, man. I just don't know where anything from five to eight on this roster gets better. Like we're talking about Bobby Portis

and his like renaissance here. Yeah. You better hope that happens again next year because you're betting on Portis and content. I know that's like we're basically, you're focusing more on the top and I'm focusing more on... Would you be feeling this wave?

They still had Drew Holiday in their building and Grayson Allen. I would feel exactly probably the same way, if anything. Because I feel similar to I did last year where it's just like, I'm not arguing that Janus isn't incredible or that having Janus on your team isn't an amazing asset, probably, one of the top five things you could have in your building.

But the problem is just everything else around that. If anything, they just, they committed more to the now than the future. And this whole extra is about the future. They did commit to the now. But the immediate and the next few seasons, are going to be championship contending seasons. Any year with Janus on the roster

is going to be one you have to take seriously. And the way I know I feel confident about this is if you gave the Knicks the chance to trade for the Bucks problems, they would do it in a heartbeat. It's not even... Even with the lack of assets that the Bucs have. Of course, they would.

I mean, if you want to say that like any team just would prioritize a title now over five years... No, but I don't think OKC would. I don't think OKC would say, say to themselves, oh, I'd love to just be the bucks right now for the next five years rather than us. But I think the Knicks, absolutely, absolutely.

Because guess what, OKC has a legitimate MVP on their team? And so do the bucks. That has to matter to me. You know, like the sort of bankability of that is so valuable. Because, you know, even if you want to say it might get murky in a few years, right? It might get to be like, let's say what Philly was this year before M.B. went down. What people are like, yeah, French championship kind of could probably maybe put your chance to get out to east. But like nobody's taking them too.

Like, if that's what they turn into after being bona fide champions, I mean, come on. when you have somebody of MB to Janice's level, to get close takes way less than the teams who are fighting for are hoping one day, you know, hoping one day Aunt Edwards might become a bona fide MVP kind of guy, hoping one day that, you know, you name the young guy who's knocking on the door,

might become as good as Janus. To me, having that known quantity and he's under contract, to me, that's just gold to me, NBA gold. I just see the potential in people, you know? Except Janice and AJ Green. I definitely see it in AJ Green. I'm not sure about Janus, but we'll see. Rob, did you have the Bucks 4th?

I did have the Bucks 4th, yeah. And I imagine we have the same three teams in the top three in maybe varying orders, but I'm not even sure. So the magic at 3 is what you're saying? I am not. I'm kidding. Should we talk about the magic, though? Because I do think we need to take them seriously in this exercise.

They're like the inverse of the Bucer. for me where do I feel comfortable betting on either Paolo or Franz being a top 10 player in the next five years? That was the question because the cumulative case is very strong, a really good like six and seven man core of young guys who are getting better. But I don't know if I can get there with Paulo or Franz. Two players who I like a lot, but they might end up capping out in that 15 to 25 sort of range. So the magic's defense is pretty incredible, especially when you consider a lot of these guys are still young and developing. And they have guys in regards. reserve Anthony Black, et cetera, who fit that mold.

They just want to be big and long. And I do wonder if there is a wolves level arc to what they're doing, where it's like everybody's loading up on offense, we're going to be one of the few teams that could actually stop people. And I like that as a counter and just like as a philosophical exercise. I'm just like you're mentioning, Rob, I'm a little worried, like about the Paulo and the fronds. Look at the efficiency number.

And it's just like not really there. It's a lot of plotting Paulo, getting to the line. Franz really hasn't taken off in the way, as I think a lot of people were expecting there. And I'm a little worried that this is the type of team that isn't going to swing for the fences when they have the opportunity to do so. You see teams like we're loading up on draft picks or they've kind of stacked the contracts in a way where like, oh, they can make this move this year or that year. I don't know. They strike me as the type of team that's kind of thundery where it's like we're actually not going to do that. We're going to keep just being a clearinghouse for your bad contracts and stack up assets for the future.

because we don't want to pay guys once they need to get paid. And so I don't know. I'm a little worried that they're a little too conservative. Believe it or not, the Orlando Magic, the DeVos is here, in order to kind of take the step that they're going to need as soon as they probably have the opportunity to do so. Yeah, to me it's not about, they can get as aggressive as they want unless some incredible talent essentially forces their way

to the magic, which we see is highly unlikely. Even the type of aggressive moves they can make, it's not going to really matter that much if Paolo or Franz don't become the kind of players that you said you don't see them becoming. So ultimately, aggressive or not, these guys don't project to be these top-end kind of guys. I don't, like, Franz, he's going to get a nice contract.

You know, he's going to get a max rookie extent. but is he ever going to be this dominant, you know, possessions eating, efficiency monster? He hasn't shown that yet. And I don't think Paolo is either. And so to me, that's the problem for them. It's that, you know, they got the lottery, nice lottery luck and blah, blah, blah. They got the number one pick and yada, yada, yada. But sometimes you get the number one pick and it's Paulo.

You know, sometimes you just don't get the right guy. I don't even want to say that. I don't want to say the right guy. But sometimes when it's your chance to draft a guy, there isn't a Wembenyama in the pool, you know? Right. And if you're making the case for the magic as one of these five teams, you're not only saying that you trust in a lot of their younger guys to develop,

you're saying you trust in Paulo or Franz to succeed more than, you know, Tyrese Halliburton is not going to be on our list. Luca Donchich is not going to be on our list. Are you more confident in Paulo and Franz than players like that? Devin Booker probably not going to be on our list, I imagine, just because the son's age. So you're really putting a lot of faith in those guys is when the outlook of this team,

and I know this is probably a hard thing to kind of stomach if you're a magic fan, and you're so excited about where they are in the standings right now. But this is kind of what they project to be, a solid playoff team for a long time with young players who are coming up. And there's nothing wrong with that, and it gives them room to surprise us down the line.

But in terms of penciling them in as one of the five most promising teams in the league, I just don't think we can get there. Yeah. So number three, I have the Boston Celtics. I do, too. Same. Wow. Same. Justin, welcome. Because here's the thing. I think I had the Celtics two last year.

No, I had them three behind the Grizzlies. Clearly what they've built is pretty incredible. Like one of the best starting fives in recent history. You could go listen to the first half of this podcast. We drooled all over them. The problem is like this is getting expensive very quickly. It's already expensive. Yeah, it's not just expensive. It's like Joe Lakeup doesn't want to pay that bill expensive. Like, $199 million projected for next season,

and that's if Drew Ops in, which he will not, he will most likely go into free agency. And if you bring him back on an extent... Do you think so? I think it's weird that we haven't heard anything about extensions for him yet. I just assume that's because he's not getting $39 million a year or whatever he's owed. He's going to opt into his deal.

I think he's going to take that. I don't know about that. I guess it's years versus dollars. I would imagine, I mean, having the Sixers looming there, I'm sure is going to be a major asset for his agent. Drew keeps getting into these situations where the teams he goes to have to overpay him. Is he already a sixer candidate? You think so?

I just don't know who else they're turning to at this point. That's a whole other conversation, but like they might have to settle. Yeah, so threadbare at this point. We should lay out the financial outlook for the Celtics, because right now they already have one of the highest payrolls in the league. Next season, Jalen Brown's Supermax kicks in. The year after that, Tatum is owed a new deal. Derek White is owed a new deal

This is already a huge luxury taxpayer. Chris Stap's already got his extension. Chris Daps got his but I just don't know that the Celtics have lawyers. Paying, Prince is going to need an extension. Oh, he got his too. Oh yeah, no, no, he did it. Yes, yes, yes, they got him.

Well, Luke Cornett's got to get paid. We got to throw some money around. Yeah. I think Hauser got an extension too, actually. Now we go through all this. But you're right. It's going to be very dicey very quickly. I would imagine

that we're only looking at like another year or two of Tatum and Brown together, if only because of the financials. Like if they win the title this year, I would be shocked if they blew this up and said, let's not try to roll this back. But like, but the Warriors are the prime example of this. Like,

you can keep winning. But as soon as you're not at the level, like at the top of the league forefront of the league, like you're going to start looking at that bottom line a lot harder. And like this is where the CBA kicks in. And I think this is important for this discussion as opposed to last year where it's like, you know, it's going to get harder and harder to trade some of these guys.

And a team like the Nuggets, who I'm sure will talk about, acted a little sooner there in order to set themselves up to fill off their depth with young guys in a way that the Celtics are going to have to really get creative here. And one thing I'll mention because I'm rambling here, but like they don't have mid-tier contracts in order to trade for other guys, too. Like, I thought it was funny. I went on Brian Barrett's podcast off the pike right before the trade deadline. And it's like, who do we even like nominate for this team?

because they don't have the salary matching because all of their salaries are so appropriately funneled toward their top level guy. You couldn't even trade for a Kelly Olinic because you couldn't get the salaries to match that. Yeah, I mean, to me, the reason why they're number three

is that their best guys are relatively young and are going to be under contract. And so, you know, even if you say, oh, they got to move on from Jalen Brown, all right, cool, they'll get a bunch of stuff back for him. Yeah, and that conversation has shifted. Like, we're talking about the finances of the Celtics more than is

Jalen Brown happy? Is he going to accept his role? A lot of that stuff has quieted down. But again, even if they themselves decided beyond Jalen Brown's, you know, mercurial nature, like, we want to do something different. They can get a bunch of talent in, they can

get a bunch of, you know, young, fresh legs and like, they can change this. Yeah, can I hit that point real quickly, though? I wonder with the CBA, because you're not allowed to aggregate salary for some of these trades. Yeah. Are they going to have to maybe keep Brown and say, like, well, if we want to dump money, it actually has to be someone that's essential to who we are, like a Derek White or something,

only to just make it all match. I don't think you could do Brown for, like, this cadre of young guys on another team, which makes it very complicated. Yeah, I forget about the new rules. But again, I think when you have really good players under contract, like, you're just way more flexible. Like you've got to, or you could just be like, yo, we're just going to keep running this back. How about that?

We're just going to keep winning 58, 56, 60-something games every single year. 73. And maybe have a Bucks year where everybody just dies of leprosy and we get to win the freaking finals, right? Like, I think they're just in a great position with the personnel that they have, the continuity, the managerial stability. I just think that their future is what people want. What NBA teams want, the consistency, the high-end talent. It's what they want, man. It's what teams want.

They're unquestionably in a good position. I don't want anyone to take them being thrown on our list as some kind of slight because they have a great chance to win the title this year. They're going to have a great chance so long as this score is together. But as far as the run-it-back strategy was, not only is that they're the financial considerations, Drew Holiday is 33 and basically a supercharged role player. He's not a running back candidate.

He's not a forward to the situation. Even take him out or trade him or, you know, figure something else out down the line. Chris Staps, we like you and you're so transformational of the team. You ain't got to be here forever. But for a word. I worry about that, though. Like Chris Staps misses, I think on average, like 30-something games a season and generally doesn't finish those seasons. between him and potentially needing to replace Drew down the line as he ages out of this stage of his career.

Al Horford has a ton of mileage is already 37. They're going to have to replace these guys. They're going to have to change the shape of their team. I'm not saying they can't. But that's why there's so much pressure on the Celtics this year. Because if this isn't enough to win the title, if this most talented roster in the league is not enough, it's going to be really hard for them to get more talented than this over the next couple years. Different talent.

That's what it would have to be. Well, we should probably flip to, I have them at number two. I'm actually scared to ask where you have them, but I have the Denver Nuggets number two, because this is the flip side of what you guys are talking about. No. You already know where we have them. They're number one.

They're number one, they're fucking insane. They're number one. How are they not number one? Because the Thunder have like everything you would want from a future organization. How about the best player in the league? How about the, yeah. Well, so here's where the quibbles come in here. Obviously the Denver Nuggett.

See, I thought I was doing something like great by putting that too, and you guys would be like, oh, no. Brilliant idea. It's not even that they have the number one player in the league, Justin, is that they have the singular most dominant entity in the postseason in the NBA. Preach was. Aaron Gordon. He's going to destroy every single opponent in the postseason regardless of matchup.

All right. They process that on their team. And he's going to be. that you can reasonably expect that to be the case for at least the next four years. I want to broaden it out even further than that though. There's no player I trust

more than Nicola Yokic. There's no action I trust in a playoff series more than the Yokic Murray two-man game. And there's no core that I trust more than their core four guys. Are you convinced that one day Peyton Watson pulls up at Yokic's house? They're ready to do a Hotels.com

commercial. Yeah. And then Yokic just isn't at the door. He went to see about a Are you sure about that? No, that's not going to be the case. And by the way, I'm glad you brought up Peyton Watson because they're demonstrating like, yo, we're going to develop people through the farm. We ain't even got to do this, go out and farm.

No, we're going to get cheap labor, develop this thing through the farm. And now Peyton Watson is already a key rotational player. This guy's going to make all NBA defenses as a wing defender. These are a special role player type. Absolutely. 21 years old right now. Like, I don't know how you watch what Denver does and not think of the Spurs, not think of the Warriors, not think of these teams that had this championship equity, this championship continuity. Okay.

And the best player in the NBA, okay? All right. I would like to remind people at home, I have them at number two. on the future power rankings, in part because of everything that you're mentioning there. Yokic is incredible. He's 29. Murray's 27. Porter's 25.

Gordon's 28. When they feel like getting off of him, he's out of there. Well, so that is kind of this thinking point. I do love what they did on the back end of their rotation. It's making them a little shaky going into this postseason when I think they're going to need that 6, 7th, 8th guy. But like, if they hit on those draft picks, I think they've created the runway for them to be dominant over this.

year stretch. I love what they did. I thought that was really shrewd and smart. The problem is, I think if you want to pick Knits, which is what we're doing, because once again, I have them number two on our future power rankings. All of a sudden, Michael Porter Jr. has become the Paragon of Health. He's missed one game this season. And on the one hand, you're like, holy shit, maybe he's come out on the other side of this. Have you seen his rebounding numbers? It's like over seven a game at this point. Everything you would want for him to just like step into that supporting role of just being a big badass who shoots 40% or closer over to it, over that. Like, he really has kind of done that.

The problem is like, this is a guy with persistent back issues. Murray obviously hasn't been a paragon of health as well. He's kind of been touching go this season as he recovers long term from his injuries. And so if I'm picking nits here, I'm saying injury-wise, they probably have the biggest red flags of any of the teams that we're talking about in this top five. Yeah. Murray and Michael Porter Jr. both, you do worry about playing full seasons on a consistent basis. Like, are they capable of that?

Is that in their best interest in terms of holding up over long playoff runs too? It's something you have to consider. The Thunder, though, have had exceptionally good injury luck this year. In a way that makes me very optimistic about their future, like any season in which the Thunder are healthy, you would think this might be their worst healthy season over the next five years. They have so many young guys who are going to get better. They're going to climb. But eventually somebody's going to get hurt in that group.

And I think what we've seen with Denver is even when Murray missed a significant time, even when Porter misses a significant time. So long as it's just one of those guys, they still bottom out as being a really competitive multi-round playoff team that's knocking out potential contenders. And that's where the thunder's just war chest of draft picks, I think finally becomes a factor in these rankings there. For sure.

If the Nuggets lose one of their quack. players, it'd be tough to replace that unless Peyton Watson or some of these guys take that leap. The Thunder still have all these lottery tickets to potentially replace a star if they need to. And like, I just think having that as a backstop when you've assembled already, one of the best big threes in basketball and recent basketball history, let's just cross our fingers and hope that pans out there. I think they're on that trajectory. I just think they have the margin for error that the Denver Nuggets don't have, even though the Nuggets still have set themselves up. pretty well down the stretch here.

I think the Nuggets are a serious, serious threat to win a championship this year in ways that I just don't think OKC are. I just don't. I don't think they're a serious championship team. Next year will be the same. I just, you know, OKC stuff is all theoretical, whereas the Nuggets is just a fact, right? Again, the way I looked at Duncan, Genoblee and Parker and all of that, this team is going to be right there

no matter what. Theoretical is strong. I mean, they're at the top of the West. Right. In the regular season. I think they got tough playoff matches. Well, we don't need to get bogged down by that. We got plenty of time to talk about their playoff potential.

I just, to me, again, I love, look, Shay, and this needs to be said, all of that stuff Doc was saying, notwithstanding, absolutely nobody thought this guy was going to, threatened MVP's in the NBA. Nobody thought that at the time of the Paul George deal. You know, you look at somebody like an Anthony Edwards with his pedigree and all of that stuff. If he would have been traded at a similar time that Shea was traded,

everybody would be like, whoa, you can't trade that kind of guy. Like, this is a MVP kind of potential kind of guy. Like, that was not the case when this guy was moved. The fact that the thunder just, you know, just happened upon. an MVP kind of guy is amazing. Talking about Jill Williams. And Jalen Williams is incredible. Obviously, you guys know how I feel about Chad.

I think all of these things are amazing, but I do think so much of his still very theoretical with the younger guys, whereas I just think the known quantity of what Denver is, to me, I take that all day, every day. Yeah, if you told me at any point in these next five years, OKC was going to be in as good, a championship contending position

as the Nuggets are right now, that's a great outcome. That's a great outcome. And so that's why, and Denver's not going anywhere. Like, their best players are, in all likelihood. If not going to remain there, they're going to be within the age bracket, and they're going to be able to manipulate that roster

to make it better or different or keep contending in whatever form around Nicola Yokic, which is just the most compelling piece on this board. Like a player that good in his prime. The thing about Yokic too, that I think needs to be said is if for some reason, let's just say Jamar Murray

bumped his head and said, oh, I don't need to be here anymore or somebody, whoever, Michael Porter Jr., who might one day be like, oh, I don't want to be a glorified lunch pail guy anymore. Whoever you brought up in here, man,

I'm telling you, Yokic is going to figure it out. He's going to figure out how to make that thing work. He's that special of a player, Justin Varyer. And so that's why, to me, the outlook for the Nuggets

is number one in the NBA. How dare you put them second? The nerve of this guy! So can I read you the salaries for this season for the Thunder? So first, Shea at the top, 33.4 million. Do you guys know who's making the second amount of money in terms of just total salary this season? Gordon Hayward.

Got to be Gordon Hayward. Gordon Hayward, yep. Do you know who number three is? Third? Is it Chet? Because he was the number one pick? Nope. Who is it?

It's Kevin Porter Jr. Who was waived immediately. Do you know what they got out of that trade? A second or something? They got two better seconds. They actually sent out seconds as well. Yeah. He's making $16 million.

They just sunk that in order to get better seconds. They have so many goddamn draft picks, and we saw this at the trade deadline, that they're trading actual picks for swaps just because the potato. that those might hit are better. Dort, by the way, is number four on the salary list, 15.3 million. It's just like everything you could want for a long runway is here. I'm not going to argue if you guys think,

like the Nuggets have Yokic and that's all that matters. But it's just like this team is already second in the West and has, I think, the same record as the Nuggets right now. They have one fewer loss, but practically same amount of wins. With so much more potential to go. They got potential. They have potential. It's incredible.

This is like one of the best. If was a fifth. That's what potential is for me. It's a if, if, if, if, if. There's a lot of ifs here, though. Eight additional first round picks and a few of these like rigged pick swaps where they're going to get the best of three or four different teams picks. Those are real things.

And to your point about the finances, Justin, like, they don't even really get expensive until 2026. That's how much of a runaway they have before the money starts flowing. And so it's very easy to believe in the thunder. God knows once they get expensive. Boy, they're going to start cutting salary like a mug. Some different considerations there for sure. They'll send them all to the Hornets.

Like they did half of their bench this trade deadline. And on the one hand, it's like they can do that. And like what a power move it kind of was. On the other hand, it does show that like having a lot of picks ultimately doesn't get you a lot because they do get expensive. And then you're going to have to just cut bait in a way that maybe you don't want to. So there's that aspect to it as well. They do, but all of these hypotheticals between Shea, one of the youngest rosters in the league,

an already dominant regular season product that is going to have a chance to prove itself in the playoffs, all of these picks, that's how like a team like that ends up jumping a regular season juggernaut like Boston. And a very accomplished postseason team like Boston, it's been to the finals, it's been to the conference finals over and over again. And yet, one thing I got stuck on, I'm curious of y'all's take on this, over the next five years divorced from contract would you want Jalen Brown

or Jalen Williams on your team? Jalen Brown. I'll take Jailen Brown. I got to take the playoff equity like and I think he's just right now and I was talking to somebody about this like J-dub he's J-dub right

Yeah. J. Dub is very fun to watch. However, they kind of limit his usage in the sense that he's attacking closeouts. He might isolate somebody. He might spot up for three. They're not letting him create, initiate offense right now. And Jalen Brown, listen, he's no Ph.D. level operator in the pick and roll. But he does that.

He has that component to his game. Obviously, he's been a much better defensive player throughout the game. definitely a more tenacious defender of his career and stuff like that. So I'm still a Jalen Brown. If we're divorcing it from salary. Now, I mean, obviously the biggest contract in NBA history versus,

you know, a guy on a rookie deal. That goes to what I'm saying. So Jalen Williams is about to turn 23. He's an older, like came into the league as an older rookie. And Brown is 27. So there isn't probably a,

as much growth to Williams as you might expect because guys tend to top out as they get to their high 20s. On the one hand, Brown, so Brown has that success that you can't ignore, but on the other hand, Williams hasn't had the baked in on the guy and like I should be doing more than I should that Brown has to his game. And so it's almost like, do I want to credit Williams for not making the mistakes that Brown has ultimately overcome? Because like, Like, for instance, he's shooting incredibly well from three, but he's doing it on a significantly lower volume. And so does that suggest, like, he might not be able to scale there?

I don't know. Where do you fall, Rob? I just found myself, like, really torn. And I kind of side slightly with Jalen Williams. And I say that as someone who's very much a Jalen Brown guy. Like, I find myself defending Jalen Brown in a lot of arguments these days, even as the Celtics are as good as they are. I see tremendous value in what he brings to the table.

but the combination for J-dub of being potentially a better shooter at volume. I hear your point that right now it's pretty low usage on the three-point attempts in a way that you want to see that scale up before you really start to trust the numbers on it. But what really gets me is him is a one-on-one score. Him in isolation, attacking guys, he's so jittery.

He attacks the basket. He gets downhill and you can trust him to finish and to spray out and find guys. And as far as what you want in a second star, that's what I want. Like, that's the kind of guy who I went activating off of a pass, attacking one-on-one, attacking a close-out, if that's what the situation is. I want him making hay out of those moments.

And I feel like Jalen Williams is really primed to be that player. But really my larger point in thinking about the Thunder and the Celtics was both Chet and Jalen Williams are not that far behind Jalen Brown right now. And if we're thinking about a five-year timeline, yeah, I don't know who I would prefer over a five-year timeline, but I kind of lean Jalen Williams. I would probably lean the Thunder guys as well. It's an interesting conversation. Why don't we wrap it there, though?

We'll be back on Sunday. Thank you to Isaiah Blakely. Thank you to all the people in the back there. I'm sure there's 30 of them right now. We'll be with you on Sunday. We'll see them. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fanduil is offering online sports wagering in Kansas

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