The Ringer NBA Show - Divvying Up the Midseason Title Pie | Group Chat

Episode Date: January 28, 2025

Justin, Rob, and Wos are back to hand out some title pie. In this exercise, the guys divvy up the championship pie and tell us what percent chance each contender has to win the title and why (5:24). Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producer: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's popping, everybody? Logan Murdoch here from Real On the Ringer MBA show, and I want to invite you to pull up and kick it with Roger Bell, Howard Beck, and myself during All-Star weekend for our live podcast. We're going to be at the Stork Punchline Comedy Club in San Francisco on Saturday, February 15th at 2 p.m. pre-gaming all the all-star festivities, and you never know who might stop by. Get your tickets now by heading over to ringer.com backslash events. That's ringer.com backslash events. to see you there.

Welcome to group chat. I am Justin Verrier. And joining me, Rob Mahoney, Big Wads. What's up, gentlemen? Are we excited for Mack McClung being back in the slam dunk contest? What's going on with your world? We always are. It's MacMachlan season.

MacMachlan who, like three summer leagues ago, I thought it had a good shot of actually making a actual NBA roster. Clearly, I was wrong. But he did, why? He's currently on a two-way, you know. roster. Yeah, exactly. But shouts to Matt McClung. And also I want to give a shout out to the class of 2005 St. Francis Prep Terriers.

We celebrated our 20th year since graduating the prep, got together with a bunch of guys and gals from my years over there in Fresh Meadows. It was a great time. Just wanted to highlight my fellow Terriers of 2005 at the top of the show. Was, I support you and the Terriers. That said, going to a high school reunion in 2025 is insane business. And I don't know what you're doing. We live in a world where you can access and reach out to these people anytime you want. Why are you going to a high school reunion?

So that's the thing. That's what I thought to. It's a couple of things. One, I think our high school is a bit cultish in the sense that like people like are still close and bonded to the people that they met at that high school. And two, like, I agreed with you until I got there. And there was, like, a lot of people, like, you know, the algorithm might serve me their kids every now and again.

But, like, I completely forgot that I used to hang out with these people, you know, at a certain time of my life. So there was a decent amount of people that that was the truth. I think counting on the algorithm to keep up with people, I think is a foolhardy mistake and touching grass and doing stuff like physically being with people out in the world is more important than you realize, Rob Mahoney. Words to live by. I just don't know that personally, anyone that I'm not currently in contact with from something

like high school, for example, I don't know, you know. We went our separate ways. We had our times. I think we can all live in peace. You know what I will say, too, is that the school was very good at not having a stuffed dorks in the locker culture. So I don't think, not that you were getting stuffed in the locker. Well, I'm just saying like, you were going to be the one stuffing me in the locker.

Like, let's all be honest about what's happening here. I'm just saying everybody was generally happy to see other people. It was nice. Okay. I don't know how we made the transition from Mack McClung to your high school. I just shoot-horned it in. You did it. You definitely pulled it off. I appreciate that. What else is going on? Anything? I'm kind of soft launching a mustache here. I don't know if you guys can see that on the camera. How different is this the normal? Is the mustache full of the rest of the beard? I'm not. Yeah. It's a little darker, a little darker, but unfortunately, Waz showed up on

on the Zoom here with a full, meaty mustache. I'm just like, God damn. He put my mustache in the locker, basically. A lot of people claim that I joined the military ever since I debuted this, but I'm still a civilian. Don't worry, guys. I remember we had floated a bit once upon a time that if Reed Shepard went on to win rookie of the year,

we would all grow stashes. How long ago that seems. How naive we were about all of that. There's still hope for us, because we have the Wembe bet. And I think as part of that, we tossed around the idea, maybe like French style,

like, oh, sure. Mustaches, yeah. I don't know if that's French per se, but it at least goes along with the whole vibe. I'm just looking for any excuse to basically grow a mustache at this point is what it comes down to. But I just want you guys to join me on this journey,

you know? Well, I will join you in saluting your mustache. For the record, though, your facial hair doesn't look much different than it normally does to me, which is to say always resplendent. Bad life. lighting. You know, a little darker. I'll come next time. I'll make the contrast a little bit more

pronounced. But I have this question for you guys. And Rob, maybe you could feel this. What did you have for breakfast today? A single banana and a cup of coffee. Okay. Can I interest you in some pie to go along with it? You already know you can. This is, I have to say, Justin, of all your, of all your creations, the most beautiful and perverse that you have ever brought to group chat, the title pie, the championship pie. This is my favorite time of the year. My Frankenstein? Yeah, or your Frankenstein's, your barriers monster, I guess.

Barriers monster. Yeah, so last year around this time, we did a bit where we chopped up the title race based on percentages of that team, the likelihood that they were going to win it. We all come with our own different pies, different slices, different percentages, to give to some of the top contenders. And we just, you know, we hand them out. That's what it is. I don't know if I explained that all that well,

but you kind of get the gist of what's going on here. And so we're going to do that again, talk about some teams perhaps in the trade mix, but also some teams at the top of the league. Do you guys want to start top to bottom here? Yeah, I think so. Let's go. Okay.

Was, why don't you give us your biggest piece of pie? My top slice goes to the Boston's, Celtics, I think pretty unsurprisingly, if you've been listening to the show the last few weeks, my, you know, positivity towards them is unwavering. And I gave them a 25%. 25% of the pie I'm giving to Boston. I just think they're still clearly the title favorites. They're healthy right now, which I think is going to be the most determinative in terms of how well they end up doing in the playoffs, if they are relatively healthy, I anticipate them making the finals. And I think the continuity, the collective sort of experience and championship know-how,

along with the talent and the really tough style of play that they will eventually prevail. So, yeah, for me, they got 25% of the pie. And, like, in terms of where everybody else is on the pie, like, I had them with a lion's share. You know, Chris Rock used to say that the dad always gets the big piece of chicken. Boston Celtics are getting the big piece of chicken of this proverbial pie as I mix up metaphors here but maybe this is a chicken pot pie.

That's good. I see now we're talking. Although on the Chris Rock point, the big piece of chicken, I don't want the chicken breast per se. I feel like I want first dibs, but I don't know that I want the biggest piece. I want maybe like a,

you know, a leg thigh combo. I think that's what I'm out for. Yeah. Yeah, I like when they keep that as one piece. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

We got that settled. On the Boston Celtics. So I actually have them second in my overall pie slice ranking. But I think we're in similar ballparks. I'm at 20% for the Celtics. Justin, where did you have them percentage-wise? I'm at 26. I think recent results have me a little bit more mixed on what can happen down the road here.

Also starting to wonder, have you guys noticed that everyone that played for TMU, USA has basically been not bad per se, but seemed a little gassed overall. And it's weird because like Webbenyama, for instance, is having like a breakthrough year. Yokic has never been better. But specifically with Team USA, it seems like the opposite of the bump is happening where like Derek White, for instance, we thought would be in the All-Star conversation. He's been okay. He was better against over the weekend. And that game against the Mavs, they looked like the team we all thought they would be. But like those type of guys just really haven't had the sorts of consistency that we're used to seeing from the Celtics.

Maybe the one exception on the Olympic front, Tyrese Halliburton getting his Paris revenge. You know, fine. We didn't play must. That's what I'm saying. You know, the key is to save yourself during Olympic season, come back stronger than ever, at least during the second part of the NBA season.

So just to be clear here, Justin, the Celtics are second in the pie and they're at 26. Yeah. And Rob, you have them second in the pie and they're at 20. So who's your number one pie getter? And what's their percentage of the pie here?

There's only one answer, right? Yeah, I have the Oklahoma City Thunder. Yeah. At a robust 32% of pie. 32%. Yeah, I basically have the Celtics and the Thunder with almost, I think, over half the pie. I think we're at 58% in total. Best point differential in the NBA.

Best record in the league. also has the best point differential since the NBA merger and is also the second best in NBA history. So better than the Bulls dynasty, better than the Warriors when they won 73 games.

Right now, they're an absolute buzzsaw. But the problem with the Thunder is statistically, they profile is one of the best teams in history. Unfortunately, in practice, especially when they play PJ Washington, it just like it doesn't always meet

what you would hope it to be. So they're shaky at, 32, but I think very clearly are the favorites at this point. So if you had to pick one team that you thought was going to win the NBA championship this year today, you would pick OKC. Well, yet, that's literally what we're doing. Wow. That's fascinating to me.

The West is an easier pass. And that's going to be a theme for me where it's like it's thunder and then it's everybody else. I completely disagree with that. Easier path. Yeah, I think it's, you can push back on that a little bit. I think the next up contenders in the east. might be a little stronger than in the West in some ways.

Like the Cavaliers have made an incredible regular season case. The Knicks are an amazing, like third team to just be sitting there and we're going to get into those teams. The West is a little more balanced, and there's a bunch of teams that I could see making some noise. What's interesting is whichever one makes its way through the gotlet is going to be really impressive by that point. It's just so hard right now to know which of those sort of next up Western Conference

teams is really going to be in that class. So for me, the reason why I don't think the West is easier by any stretch is just like, if I name you these three teams and they're reasonably healthy against OKC in the playoffs, Dallas, Memphis, Denver, you think they blow these guys away in the playoffs? I don't at all. And I think they likely root. I'd pick Dallas still when healthy to beat them in the playoffs, right? So that's why OKC to me, like, you know, they're my second team.

But, like, I just think their playoff situation is going to be tough. And again, you know, Chet hasn't played all year, basically. And we want to see what he looks like when he comes back. I just, just the reliance on these young guys to make big-ass shots in huge moments and, like, make the right decision, make the right read against, you know, some of these more veteran-laden teams. And just, like, you know, obviously they still have the size deficiency. on the interior when it comes to rim protection. I just think they have glaring holes.

Not that they're not freaking great. Obviously, they're blowing people away. I don't know, man. I think when you get it as granular as the postseason gets, they just don't look like the 96 bulls. Like, this just doesn't look like the 96 bolts to me, like, at all. They do have that the rock solid, pervasive regular season case, though. Like, Justin, that's why I'm understanding where you're coming from,

because to give a team 30 plus percent title odds, they have to be historically dominant. They have to be wrecking people on a regular basis. And then you contrast that with, as you're saying, while some of these very specific matchups that can give the Thunder trouble. And the Dowell, I have no idea what to make it the Dallas one at this point, considering not only is PJ Washington wrecking these guys.

They've lost to the Mavericks three times without Luca playing in any of those games. Right. Like there's just something about that matchup that clearly, one gets in the thunder's head, the physicality of those games, I think messes with them a little bit. And yeah,

when Luca and Kyrie are out there, that's a different level of shot making that can bust up one of the best defenses we've seen in modern NBA history. But overall, I think I might be a little higher than you was on how they would fare against Denver or how they would fare against Memphis

or how they might fare against a lot of the other teams in the Western Conference field, just because I think their defense travels about as well as any singular factor in the NBA right now. Yeah, their size is an issue. And I'd hope they'd address it at the trade deadline. That's something that we could talk about. I don't think they'll make a move in part because they went out and gave Elks Caruso an extension.

And so it seems like their books are plotted out well in advance. And to do something at the deadline kind of disrupts your entire blueprint for success there. Elks Caruso, by the way, shooting like 30% from the floor. I don't know how that extension is going to really age there. He's like clearly good defensively, but kind of part of like an example of their issue where it's like they have all these defenders. They need a little bit more zest offensively to overcome some of the size concerns that they have. But you guys mentioned it. I mean, Hartinstein has been out now, what?

Two extended stretches. And then Chet hasn't played for months at this point. We'll see if he can like just immediately stepping into this. But they have solutions down the road there. And I think if it's Chet, Hartinstein, plus what they have, I'd like that in a matchup, especially when Dallas is like, Dallas is in disarray. I don't know what Luke is going to be even when he comes back. Kairie has this bulging disc issue. they just haven't looked quite lively.

Just left for two and a half months to three, which is just a tough blow. But again, if the timeline is correct, he'll be back by April. Yeah. Which is the playoffs. They need him to have that size advantage because the 48 minutes of center hell

is basically part of their identity. Part of why they made the finals last year. So it's actually more of a case against some of the rest of the West than it is for the thunder. And I think balancing out, that's why I don't know. I see them as, as a finals team, like, at a minimum at this point.

At a minimum. I mean, they do have to earn it. I think I'm probably somewhere in the middle on these two things where I am clearly bullish on the Thunder. Was, I can't quite get to your level in terms of the pessimism of the youth. I think at some point, these guys all grow up. And at some point, you go through enough playout battles where things click into place. You have to prove it.

You have to get there. You have to show that you can handle those sorts of, like, tactical challenges in a way that honestly, they didn't well enough last season against them. Mavs, but maybe they do this time. Like maybe they have crossed some critical critical threshold. I think the one thing I want to, I want to put like an asterisk on is the chat factor you described, Justin, where I just want to make anything that he gives the thunder the season more icing on the cake than it is, oh, him and Hartenstein together as like this

formidable duo, which they will be kind of going forward. But for now, like we're still about a month away from him, even getting an update on his pelvic fracture. So I think let's wait and see with Chad a little bit. So I think there's two ways to look at it, right? Some people would say that the reason that they lost to Dallas was shooting luck, right? They generated some decent shots against Dallas. Dallas is like, packed the paint mentality against them, which was just like, yeah, go ahead.

Case and Wallace, take a shot. Like, I don't care. You know, other Jalen Williams, take a shot. Like, I still think, dork, like, these guys. are still going to be who the kickouts go to. And it's cool in the regular season. Like, Kenridge Williams, you missed two threes in a row? You know, that was the end of our two straight possessions.

And like, ah, it's fine. Don't worry, regular season, group interviews, blah, blah, blah. In the playoffs, when, you know, each possession is treated like, you know, basically life or death. And now it gets swung to you after those two misstage. And you have a record scratch possession instead of you firing that. third one up with no with reckless abandon that's what i'm talking about with the young guys it's like i just don't see these guys as being able to handle the moment but again everybody knows my biases i

hate the young guys so i'm just going to say it sounds more about the uh the post game interviews than it does anything about their shooting success yeah um but to circle back to the celtics there Rob, you have them second. Yes. Is it more based on recent results? Because they did have a stretch where they were five and five. Like what's driving the Celtics not being your number one? Yeah, I think they're a great team that as we've discussed previously isn't perfect,

is susceptible to some of these shooting lulls. And currently it's susceptible to some of like the regular season malaise in a way that is totally healthy and normal. But then when you project forward, you think about, okay, everyone is locked back in. The best version of the Celtics is going to be back on the floor in April and May. that version is still beatable. It's very, very good, is very, very tough. I think relative to the East is pretty well positioned just because part of the problem with the Cavs case

is it's kind of hard to think about these two teams matching up against each other in Boston and Cleveland and thinking that Cleveland would win that specific matchup, that they would be able to out Celtic the Celtics, even for as overwhelming as their offense has been this season. There just aren't that many matchups on the board in the East that you would see giving the Celtics considerable. trouble. There's a couple, mainly the ones that bring like a lot of wing physicality, the ones

that can disrupt the rhythm. Like those, those teams could make Boston earn it. But ultimately, I think for me it's less about, oh, I don't trust the Celtics than it is. I'm just so impressed by what the thunder are bringing to the table. That feels like a presumptive finals matchup for me. Things can happen. Lots of wild cards in play, certainly. But right now, that's kind of the one I would be betting on. And if that matchup comes to pass, I actually like the way that the thunder can cause the Celtics trouble. I actually like the way that they could disrupt some of that rhythm in a similar way where it's it's not the physicality

that say the Orlando Magic would bring in a matchup against the Celtics, but the way they fly around is tailored to beat teams like Boston. I think that the Celtics on paper when you look at it doesn't seem so concerning because they did have the 5 and 5 stretch, which like a 500 stretch for

a good team is like those happen. They also haven't lost a back-to-back game in a really long time. They've only done it once this entire season. And so, like, I can see why, from a broad view, it doesn't seem like anything's going on. But the one thing I've noticed is they don't get on top of teams as much as they used to where they get rolling and it's like 20 points and it completely warps the way the other team is playing. And that's a concern to me because they are that type of team that tends to overwhelm teams. That's how they win a lot of their games.

And so if that's not the case, are they in more of a dog fight and do some of the inconsistencies with, for instance, Shailon Brown or Derek White? Do those start to show much? Drew Holiday not being the same player he was last year. Christop's not being kind of like the stopgap for some of their problem solving. That's when I start to worry about them. Overall, I still have them sack and I still think they're going to make the finals. But like, if the margins aren't the same for this team, I think they are a different team.

Yeah, I hear all of that. and they definitely haven't been, you know, they started off the season really hot. I think they went 17 and 4, something crazy like that, 19 and 4, even something like that. I think the team that we saw in the playoffs last year, which was a buzz saw, yes, the competition in the East is better. I just haven't been dissuaded that this team is fundamentally different

than what they did in the playoffs last year. So that's why, to me, they're still number one with a bullet. Who do you have why is that number three then? Number three, I have actually a three-way tie. Wow. Wow. So OKC is number two at 15. So that's 40% of my pie is gone with the top two.

Three-way tie between Cleveland, Memphis, and Dallas, who I'm still holding on to with Dear Life, they're all having 10% of the pie. So that's my number three. It's on a pie. Part of the, yeah, they're all getting 10% chugs of the pie because I see them as in that next group of challengers. And I think they're in their own tier in terms of that next group.

So we're now mixing pie talk with tier talk. This is NBA podcast at its finest. And for me again, like Cleveland, what they put on on the floor this year is undeniable to me, even if they've tripped up recently, losing two straight games to the Rockets and stuff like that, I think it's undeniable. I think Memphis, just their combination of talent and depth

and athleticism, and they could go size, they can go speed, they can do all of these different things. I'm like y'all know, I'm in the tank for Memphis and Dallas. Like I said, if their team is intact, when the playoffs come, I mean, Luke is on the floor.

Lidley's on the floor. Najee Marshall's on the floor. Of course, you know, Kyrie and Clay and the rest of these guys, PJ Washington, of course. Dante Axum. Maxie Kleba with a broken foot. Jared Dudley. If these guys can show up intact,

I still think they are a formidable foe in the playoffs. So, yeah, that's my next tier. Where do you want to start with those, Justin? I have the calves next up. I'm guessing you might also. 13%? 13% by. I'm at 16%.

I think this is some of the Celtics number coming down a bit too. Again, not because I think the calves would beat the Celtics one-on-one. But if anything happens to the Celtics, the calves are ready to pounce. If the Celtics have any significant injury, if they get held up against an opponent, if they just kind of run out of steam, we know title defenses are notoriously difficult. Here you have Cleveland, a team that is also. been a buzz saw in the regular season. Slipping up a bit of late, I would say

more defensively than offensively. They still have complete commitment to the fun stuff, which is to say the ball movement, the shooting, the scoring, none of that has really fallen off for the Cavs. They've been one of the worst defenses in the league over the last couple weeks. That feels like classic

January stuff, especially a team that is stormed out of the gate that is maybe finally starting to settle into an actual regular season rhythm as far as what the ebbs and flows of this stuff should be. Ultimately, I just think they're wildly impressive. I'm not also not concerned about the losses to the Rockets. I'm a little concerned about losing to the Sixers because literally no one should be losing to the Sixers. That's concerning. But such is life in the NBA in January.

And so if there is going to be a direct challenger to the Celtics to, if not unseat them, then capitalized on some Boston regression, it has to be Cleveland. I think I'm a little bit concerned with the defensive fall off, in part because it coincided with. Evan Mobley not being in the lineup. I believe they were one and three without Mobley with his calf injury. He's since come back. It didn't look quite right the other day. But I think that's my primary concern with them overall, where it's like this seems like a type of team that needs all of its parts really humming in order to have success. And without one of them, it's just like, oh, this gets a little dicey. And especially if the defense is going to be so contingent on

Mobley being awesome all the time, that's when I start to get to worried because like, as we've seen in the playoffs, it's a lot of just star shit just happening. And guys just kind of breaking free from the beautiful system. We talked so much about depth going into the season. Now we're kind of at Occam's Razor where it's like, you know who's sick? Fucking Carl Anthony Towns is jack in threes and Jamlin Brunson just pivoting his way to 30 to 40 points a game. And so that's why frankly, I have the calves and the Knicks pretty close.

I have 13 for the Cavs, the Knicks with 11 because I find those teams pretty similar. And honestly, if you look at their statistical profiles, they're both offensive-driven teams. with like mediocre defenses. And so credit to the Cavs, the regular season has been awesome. I just don't see much of a difference. And if anything, in a playoff series, I actually think the Knicks might win that two, three matchup.

Yeah, I think the Knicks and Cavs are like pretty close in terms of how I see a playoff scenario playing out. I think the Cavs, the reason why I have them just significantly below the Celtics specifically is that the Celtics are built to take you out of that. that ball movement stuff. And it's just going to be incumbent upon Garland, upon Mitchell, and even Mowgli now to be like, hold up.

Jalen Brown is guarding me right now. I got to beat him. You know, Tatum is guarding me right now. I have to beat him. Drew Holiday is guarding me right now. I have to beat him. It's brutal. It just doesn't feel like that's a thing that's going to happen this season.

And I know it's become a meme on NBA internet to say that Donovan Mitchell just hasn't been great against the best teams and best defenses. I would argue that's been the case for like four playoffs in a row now, or three, not four, maybe three. But yeah, he's got to be better, and it would be incumbent upon him. But, like, I'm not going to take away from what they're doing in the regular season.

Does Celtics sustain a decent injury, you know, that just breaks up the continuity of their defensive integrity, then, you know, they could be had, too. I just think Cleveland is just a notch of below the top two guys in OKC and Boston. And again, like if we got into, I know the conferences are different or whatever, but if Cleveland played Memphis or Dallas in the playoffs, like I personally don't think they would be some heavy staunch favorite. You know, and I like what they're doing.

And I do think they have a chance to win the championship. I just think it's a slim pretty like as compared to their peers in the standings. It's a slimmer one. Yeah, that's where it gets tough. Because I do think the commitment they have to their offense and the flow that they play with is incredibly successful against a certain caliber of team no matter what. Where they do come up a little bit wanting sometimes and where the question marks are, isn't that ability to create one-on-one stuff when it really matters in the highest pressure situations.

those questions are going to be there until Donovan Mitchell does it or doesn't or Evan Mobley does it or doesn't or Gerdarland go down the line, whoever it is you trust in those situations. Like they are going to have to prove that. That's their burden ultimately for this run to prove themselves as Celtics level title contenders. And until they do that, I think it's perfectly natural regardless of what, you know, their point differential says to say that Boston is a deserving defending champion who has the benefit of the doubt.

And Cleveland still has to show us a little something. Point differential, not that much different. No. 9.4, Cleveland, Boston at 9. Come back down to Earth a little bit. And as far as the Knicks in this conversation, I have them a little bit lower. So I have the Cavs at 16%,

the Knicks at 8%. And some of that is what you mentioned, Justin, about, you know, the Cavs are a team that really can't afford to lose anybody, including, you know, a stretch without Evan Mobley and everything kind of falls apart defensively. I mean, the Knicks have put themselves

in a nice spot in the East, in part because they have juiced their best players and just play them as much as humanly possible as Tom Thibodeau teams are ought to do. That goes great. And to be frank, resembles playoff basketball in a lot of ways, right? This is what teams do.

The problem is, will these guys be there in the end, in their healthiest, most capable form by the end of a whole season of having done that? And I also look at them as a team that, look, the Knicks have three games left against both the Cavs and the Celtics. They have a pretty tough remaining schedule

that may ultimately shake up where they are in the standings. But I'm going to be watching. with bated breath in those specific games to understand a little better like what the matchup play is for New York and what buttons they can press in those kinds of series because they have advantages

and they have unique advantages relative to almost any other team in the league but those are tough that's a really tough competition and the Celtics in particular are not an easy team to scheme and push around they put up 143 points against the Sacramento Kings the other night

and like the Kings are a credible defense I wouldn't necessarily say they're like a staunch one They're like right there in the middle. They're in the middle of the league this year. They're incredible in the garden. I'll tell you that much. They've been on fire since Doug Christie just like got that Cal Bell Kingdom sort of vibes going back out there. But for me, I think part of why I even have the Knicks at 11, which I kind of wanted to put them higher, is just the fact that like they're probably going to lose somebody.

Like they really haven't had much of an injury hit to their primary core five. Towns is kind of like a little bit iffy here, but I'm waiting for the O.J. and Nobie. injury at this point. And if they lose one of those guys, they're pretty much cooked. They have five guys. And so there really isn't any margin for error. But if they get to a series healthy, man, I think that they can make a finals.

Yeah. Can I say one thing at the risk of sounding like an absolute lunatic, which is, I haven't hated the campaign minutes lately. I feel like he's actually kind of giving them something that I appreciate. He's definitely earned his minutes. And I think it's so weird The Knicks are a team with, and like, their identity is offense.

They outscore people. Like, it's just weird that a Tibbs team, we've come this far. And, like, that's who they are. They beat people on the offensive end. And campaign has, like, been like, yo, I'm, you know, I'm basically a gunner on this team. I have a green light when I come in to just take shots, you know, and it's served them. It really has, and it's served him.

It's been cool to see Landry Shammit. You know, it was funny, man, watching the game on Saturday against the Kings. And he comes out and he makes three, like, quick first half threes and all of that. And before that, I was telling my buddy who I was with, I was like, this is like the seventh time I've been told that Landry Sham is going to, he's going to be some bench contender, blah, blah, blah, then he made the three threes. And I was like, I told you Landry Shammit. Samick was going to be that guy. You should have listened to me. So, you know,

Shamick coming back from injury looks nice. Yeah, I do think it is a matter of health. OG is just, I think after Townsend and Brunson, of course, like completely indispensable guys, I think OG's the next guy because he still is their best perimeter defender. But now, you know, he's making his threes, which he has for a while now to his credit, but he kind of lives in the pain.

and he offers this, like, alternative to paint, paint touches, where obviously towns can sometimes do his post-up stuff, but OG as soon as somebody who's not a like-sized defender is on him, he's planning himself on the low block and just waiting for a pass. And oftentimes getting to the free throw line and getting buckets, and, you know, he had his drive game working on Saturday. They are a pretty impressive team when they get rolling. It is going to be a matter of, like,

can you play an entire starting line of 38 minutes a game for a whole regular season and playoffs. That remains to be seen. I heard some Knicks fans talking about Hock Purdy recently. Like, we need to get him more minutes. And I was like, this is a sickness that is just unlike anything else we have in the league. But you also had Memphis was in your 10 piece pies. What do you think about Memphis, Rob? So I have them tied with the Knicks at 8%.

really formidable Western Conference team. It's frankly hard to overstate how absolutely dominant their starters have been in particular, just blowing the fucking doors off people. And this is a team that not only has the starters, a la the Knicks. The bench. They got incredibly high-level depth.

They have very high-level defense. They have high-level athleticism. They have some really inventive on-the-flight playmaking, particularly from Jha. I think you're starting to see the outline of a real contender. Their half-court offense is probably just on the cusp of what you would need to really,

really be taken seriously at a level higher than this. But again, that's what they have to prove. All these teams in this range have like a little bit of something that's holding them back from being the Thunder or the Celtics. And I think for the Grizzlies, it's this new revamped offense, which I think has mostly been a resounding success, is still so reliant on second chance points. It's still so reliant on grinding out some stuff that just might not be there for them in the playoffs.

They got to give. fast break. They got to beat you on the boards. They're good at getting the, like, they're better than taking out the trash than almost anybody. Yeah, they're not going to generate beautiful looks just strictly off of a, you know, traditional half-court offense. But they have the horses to get the junk points. Like, they have the athleticism. They got the speed. You know, they have a free throw magnet in John Morant, but they have ways to get there. It's just, yeah, it's not your traditional, just beautiful game offense to efficiency.

Yeah. All the indicators suggest they're an awesome team. Like they're clearly the fourth best team in the NBA record-wise. They're like, I think they're tied with Houston, even though they don't have the same amount of games for a second in the West. Point differential, the net rating, it's all there. And part of that is because his team is so deep. I just, the John Moran thing scares the hell out of me. He's missed 19 games.

And he has had, according to my crack research here, one, two, three, four, five, six different things happening. He had a hip, thigh soreness, knee bruise, back soreness, brain shoulder illness. And I might have missed one or two. Sounds like a man in his 30s, if you ask me. So when we talk to Verno, when we've talked to Verno in my feelings, he said some of that is he hasn't been healthy for the playoffs the last few times. And they're being very cautious to make sure he can play in the playoffs. I think that's some of that, like extreme caution with Jai.

where it's just like, look, man, we're deep enough that we can tread water without you in the regular season. We need this guy to play in the players. We're still six different injuries and 19 games missed already. Yeah, that is definitely an eyebrow razor. I like what they've gotten from Sharon Jackson this year. We kind of poopooed him a little bit in the All-Star talk. Like, the usage is like pretty similar to what he was last year when he was just kind of playing

through and finding himself on that end, just doing more creation and whatnot. He's been very good for them. I just like, when it gets into a horse race, like, do they have enough, especially if Jaws not going to be in there? I don't know. So I had them at 8%, which I think, Rob, you said, do you have them at the exact same, but perhaps a little different. But Wazz is at 10.

We got to talk about the Mavs who Waz also had at 10. I'll be honest, I had them quite low. I had them two spots below that sort of tier. I haven't met 2%. 2%. I think they're StarCross this year. I just, things aren't going right. The juju is quite bad.

Luca was not good before he got injured. Kyrie, we'll see with the back stuff. Although I love how, like, we just get served a bunch of Kyrie being nice to people content, like all the time now. Like, he hits a kid and he's just like, oh, what's up, man? Just a lot of like feel good Kyrie moments these days. So I guess that's nice. Welcome to American culture, brother. Build you up, break you down and build you up again.

That's what we do here. That's the dream. It's just like if they don't have lively. I feel like they're like one wing short as well. Just something's not right this year. Even though I agree that like wouldn't fully healthy, they could be a finals team again. I don't know.

Just I don't see it. My only reservation about how high I put Dallas is where they're at in the seating now. Where it's like, bro, if you guys end up with the eighth or seventh seed because you have to claw your way out the playing because of all these injuries, It's like going to the finals from the seventh seat is going to be tough to do. You know, no home court advantage at all. And then you're starting off with,

I mean, hopefully in their case, the Rockets, but possibly, you know, Memphis or something like that. That is, that, to me, is the biggest reservation. Like, in terms of, like, their guys, man, like, I have as much confidence in them as anybody who wasn't the Celtics, be honest with you. Yeah, JV, I feel like you may be underselling

how good their proof of concept is. Like, and not just the finals run, but even the early stages of the season that you described when Luca was not playing his best, they were still kind of balling out. They're still a really good team. Whenever their guys are even out there,

even if they're not in the best possible form, to the point that they're still, even now, even after having Kyrie out, having Luca out, Kyrie now back, guys in out of the lineup, the incredible injury report

we already described, top 10 on both sides of the point. Like that is the body of work they've been able to put together. And I am worried as you are wise about what the seating could entail, particularly not having lively and now Maxi Kleba for an extended period of time puts a lot of strain on your center rotation. And I guess Dwight Powell is also out right now, if that's the thing that is relevant to you. They need bodies.

And they need front court bodies in such a bad way that getting Luca back is going to help, clearly. He's expected to be back before the All-Star break, which is great news. but where they end up in the standings could be a problem how like the shape they're in by the end of the year and the stress I would say

it specifically puts on Kyrie with that bulging disc is something I'm pretty worried about ultimately I think metting out between you guys which is I have the Mavs at 6.5% a solid Western Conference contender that if they were healthy

I think would be significantly higher but they are a little bit snake-bitten there is something the vibes are not bad but the luck certainly has been terrible the juju I'm telling you The juju is off.

It's not lining up correctly. Luca is allegedly coming back soon. You know, the teams that are ahead of them in the conference right now are the sons, the wolves, the clippers, the Lakers. Feels like if you get Luca back, you could catch those teams. Sure. End up with a fifth seed, which I think is probably what they should be shooting for, which should ultimately be their destiny. so that they're not just like face with the insane gauntlet out the gate. But yeah, as it stands now, they're ninth in the west.

And it's so jumbled, right? Like, this could change in 10 days, like, up could be down right now. But I think, you know, they need to be looking at the Lakers, the clippers, as like, we need to hunt those guys down and get our seating higher as soon as Luke Donch's kids back. Part of this for me is like the historical precedent of like looking back at teams that have won it. And we've never been like, oh, the Cleveland Cavaliers lost LeBron James for two months. And here they are just powering through the playoffs, just crushing the Warriors with Kevin Durant. Like,

that just doesn't happen. And so, like, I think those things start to matter because I think it, it points to, like, consistency and continuity. And also just like, as we saw in the finals as the, as the playoffs went along last year, like, Luca not being quite right mattered. And if we're talking about the slimmest of margins, we're talking about winning a title, like I think that's going to happen, especially when the title race is more jumbled up than it's been in history.

We've had six straight teams in a row who haven't won back to back. And so I'm curious, though, I haven't heard you guys talk about the Denver Nuggets, who I had above the Mavericks in my pie rankings. I had them at 6%. Where are you guys? So I'm similar.

I have them basically tied with the Mavs, also at 6.5%. So, Waz, where are you? on Denver. So I made the Knicks in Denver into the tier below, the three that I mentioned before. Wow. So they're at, them and the Knicks are at 9%. Pretty good.

You're not, you're not, you're not, look, functionally, I don't think the team, all of these teams that haven't been OKC in Boston are like crazy differentiated. Not to me. Even the Cavs, I don't think are insanely differentiated from Denver. I don't personally believe that. I get it. The stats and the point differential and all of that stuff,

like the streets that they've been on, I get that. I just, for me, in a playoff setting, I don't think there's some materially better team than Denver is. That's just maybe that's my Denver. Of course, it is my Denver bias. You're a mountain man, not a lakehouse guy. Exactly.

And so for me, the Knicks and Denver are, you know, they're the last teams that I think, can reasonably say we have a chance to win the championship this year. That's where it stops from me. It's Dallas, Memphis, Denver, New York City, Cleveland. Those are the last teams outside of the two juggernauts at the top who can reasonably, their fans can reasonably think this hope that we could possibly win the championship this year.

So no crumbs. No crumbs. No, these aren't crumbs. No, no, these are like, you know, you got this portion. You would be happy with this. portion. Yeah, yeah. One hundred percent.

So. That is the serving size. You start with the Denver. And it's like precisely that. Like, you know, in terms of championship contention. And so Denver,

to me, is the last, they're the last of the cutoff. And it's because of Yolkage. It's because of Murray. It's because of the, you know, the championship DNA that they collectively

possess. And so they're the last team. That like, if one of their fans came up to me in a bar was like, yo, I still think we could win the championship. chip this year. I mean, like, you know what? You're not completely, utterly, foolishly wrong.

I don't think they're wrong. In fact, I think they have probably the most improved title case in the West from the beginning of the season. Like, if you would have told us in November that this team would have between a six and 10% chance of winning the title. Yokich was calling them garbage. Yeah. I mean, I would have thought it would require some massive trade to shake up the core of the team, because that was a bad juju. Those were some terrible vibes when they were rolling in a loser to The trade rob was turning back the clock on Russell Westbrook. Boy, was it. I think, look, getting Aaron Gordon back and figuring out Russ and his place in the rotation

have just unlocked so much desperately needed flexibility for the Nuggets. And as we've been asking for it for a long time, I think taking some of the workload off of Yokic's shoulders in such a crucial way. Like, Westbrook is so good at setting up Yokic for the easiest shots he gets in any of these games. Just another development nuggets related. I don't know if you guys have noticed, but like, Aaron Gordon is like ripping the nets on some of these threes, bro. Like, he is taking it.

Like, he's clearly, I mean, the numbers are what they are, like, you know, pretty low volume on the threes. The percentage is the best of his career. But, like, I don't know, just watching it, he's taking these shots with so much more confidence. And I think that's obviously a team that's just starved for three-point volume anywhere, where, you know, this Strother dude is convinced himself that, that he's freaking, you know, Reggie Miller or something. I think that's an important development to look out for. I think Rush showed them how to love again is honestly what happened.

He not only like stoked the competitive fire with this team in Yokic in particular. Like the just like the creative juice that Yokic is playing with now and like the verve and like the like the proactivity, he just seems engaged mentally in a way that he wasn't before to the point where he's like, he's doing the water polo moves where he's like slapping the ball from like a across the core and he's doing the big old passes. Like he is back in a way. And I think a lot of that is a credit to Russ just kind of like getting him going in a way. I mean, Gordon is coming off the bench right now and Russ is starting.

Like this is a kind of a miraculous outcome. I got to say, I love a big old pass. It's my favorite kind of pass. It's true. And some of it with Russ too is like he does his, like, his passing and his like, feeding of the teammates. It's like super deliberate. Like he'll point and do like

he'll point and be like you stand right there and then do like a deliberate post entry pat. It's just like he's so different than what Murray does when he's like doing more of the ball handling duties. And now Murray has kind of freed himself up to be like, all right, nobody's asking

me to be a point guard anymore, which I never really was to be honest. I can just go out and get buckets. Yeah. And I think we've seen an uptick of his. you know, sort of forcefulness with the ball and trying to look for his own shot. I just, you know, I think it's nice. And again, like, just to reiterate, I do think they have a legitimate claim to say, yo, we have a chance to win the championship this year.

$50 million, Jamal Crawford is what Jamal Murray is settling into. That's, that's sick. I think he's, I mean, I think he's been better than that. I think he's been, especially lately, finally starting to put it back together in a way that they desperately need. And that frankly, getting to the rack. getting to the rack and for all of the warm and fuzzies around Russell Westbrook right now, and there are many and there should be,

when they get to the playoffs, teams are not going to guard him, especially from three teams are already guarding him like he's a power forward. What is that going to mean in the playoffs? What are some of Russ's defensive limitations going to mean in the playoffs? The nuggets are a team that I'm really not worried about their offense as much. As you said, Waz, enough of their borderline shooters are hitting right now that you'll see lineups out there with like Gordon and Peyton Watson

and Christian Brown at once. And in your head, you're thinking, is that enough shooting? And this season it is. Like all those guys are hitting at just a respectable enough clip that I think there's actually

like an interesting differential between the respect opponents give them and the way they're actually hitting that benefits the nuggets. Like those guys are getting good looks and converting and that's really healthy for Denver's offense. There's also a lot of players on this team.

Russell Westbrook included, Peyton Watson included, uh, some Jamal Murray included, who just like, will be completely oblivious on backcut sometimes. And you'll just see the Nuggets give up a lot of random free points

throughout the course of play in a way that's really concerning for a team that's vying for the highest levels of competition and trying to be a contender. Like what's going to hold the Nuggets back ultimately is not can they score enough. They have Nicola Yokic. I think they're mostly going to be fine on offense.

But defensively, they might really be on the edge of a team we can take seriously. Well, one of the secrets with Russ's success is that they're playing him enough that they can play through some of the mistakes, that some of the good stuff is highlighted. And that's always been the case with Russell.

He'll make a bunch of weird turnovers where he's just forcing things. But if you play him enough minutes, he'll do enough amazing things to almost counterbalance that. And I almost wonder, in a weird way, he can only play like 25 to 30 minutes. He can't play 15 minutes into bench roll because you need both of those things.

And so the Thunder, excuse me, the Nuggets occupy the space where it's like, have you seen the Seinfeld episode where George loses his game? glasses and start squinting at things. Of course. And he's like, one minute he's spotting a dime across the room, but another minute

he's confusing Jerry's cousin kissing his Jerry's girlfriend, but it ends up being a horse and like a cop. That's the nuggets to me. It was across the street, you know? Yeah. If you squint, they look like one of the best teams in the NBA, but if you get clear vision,

you're like, wait, so how does this team stop anybody in the playoffs? I don't know. They had the size advantage, which will work against a team like the Thunder. That'll be tough to go against. But to me, I kind of wish they made a trade and I don't think it's a Zach Levine trade as much as I think that he would fit there. I still think the move is trading porter for two pieces that help you on both that. If I have two-way wings, if I have a Cam Johnson plus somebody else, the problem is, I don't know how you get two very good players from any team at this point that really satisfy that

because teams typically hold on to those exact players. And so this probably is who they are. but if they make a move, I could see them shooting up this pie ranking. Yeah. Who else do you have in the crumbs pile? Because I'm down to like the 1% or lower. Okay, I think I might be a little more favorable

on this next class of team. I have three teams between three and five percent of the pie. I have the Milwaukee bucks with 5% of the pie. That's a lot of pie for the bucks. It's a bit. And I think it's contingent somewhat on the fact that they could be in a position to make a play and probably need to make

and have the urgency to make some kind of roster edition before the deadline. I don't know about you guys. I found this prospect and divvying up the pie to be very instructive in terms of understanding

who probably does need to make a deal and who's probably better off standing pat with what they've got. The Timberwolves are a team that I don't think will make a trade just because I don't know that they have a logical one on the board right now, but I have them with 4% of the pie.

And the Houston Rockets, I think, are too good to not give something here. and I had them with 3%. So my last crumbs, they're all sharing the last 12% of I didn't bother giving. Yeah, I got 12% left.

Okay. No, no, no, no, no. 12% left. Bucks, rockets, wolves, Lakers. Lakers, interesting. I have, because there's still a chance that they actually improve their roster.

There is. They have the picks. We're dropping in my feelings today with Yovan where we talk about it. I don't think they're going to do it. Did you put them in the pie just to plug your show? No, of course not. I put them in the pie because they can't make a move.

They still have Bron and AD. Yeah. You know, like even when they were getting their asses handed to them by the Nuggets last year, like they were competitive games. Like, you know, they finally beat the Nuggets once in the playoffs last year. Sorry, Laker fans. No, but I just think these teams, you're not going to win the championship this year. But again, the Rockets might trade for an actual star in the deadline.

The Bucks might somehow improve the roster. Wolves might coalesce in a way where like the talent starts to match the output and it looks closer to last year than it has in any point this year. It's kind of started to, by the way. Their win over Denver against Denver over the weekend. probably their best win of the season. Yeah. So I had to put them in this last thing.

So that's four teams splitting 12% of my last 12% of my pie. Can we take this slice by slice, as it were? I like that one. Thanks. The Lakers, why are we doing this thing where AD wants a center and making it seem like it's not just like a standing request for the past decade? I remember in 2017, when I was still covering the team, he said it to the TNT crew as he was getting nominated for All-Star because it was in New Orleans. They had him on to talk about it.

And he confessed finally. Yeah, I would prefer to play PowerFord. It's something that had been burbling, but he never said it publicly. That was seven fucking years ago. And he's been saying the same thing every season since. That doesn't work. even when in their best of times when they were winning in the bubble, yes, regular

season, they were bigger and I can see that leading to more wins if you have the spacing around that. One, they don't have enough spacing, I think, in order to pull that off. And two, when they went down one game to Houston, when they dropped a game in the second round, what did they do? They just put AD and LeBron in the front court

because that's the best front court in the NBA. Getting a good center, especially if they don't have a stretch, like, it doesn't make sense because until AD shows that he can stressed the four, like it just cramps the spacing. Getting a good center is one thing. Getting a center so that when you lose Jackson Hayes, things don't fall apart. I think it's a whole other thing.

I don't think that's what he's asking for, though. No. No, no, that's not what AD is asking for. Yeah. But I think it's something that's possible. Oh, sure. You know, like getting a decent other big and break glass against, in case of emergency, being able to go to two big liners.

I think you need that line of versatility, but yeah, I don't think it's a priority to land a starting center. You know, start calling about DeAndre Aiton or something. Yeah, I think the like Dwight Javail aspects of the championship runner are pretty overstated, as you said, Justin.

Like that was the team, what made the Lakers so good is that they had exactly the flexibility that was just laid out, where they can go too big when they need to, but they don't have to, where AD can be your default five against small teams against teams like the Miami Heat and the NBA finals. Great example.

That is 80's best use and clearly not one that he particularly enjoys playing. I think what's different about this is this is as big and vocal as I have heard him be on this issue in a long time. And in particular, the combination of him doing this and LeBron basically saying anytime a microphone is put in front of his face, this is the roster we have. We have to play the way that our personnel allows. I guess we leave, you know, he's saying in every way he possibly can that this team needs to make moves. And they do. Like they desperately do.

I didn't put them on the board championship pie-wise because to me, the kinds of moves that they can make would make them better and would get them into the mix and be able to challenge teams like Dallas and Denver and Memphis in a more significant way. I just don't see what the path is to title in terms of like one or two moves from here. I don't quite think they can get there. Let me throw this at you. If they traded for Zach Levine, they juice the offense. a little bit more. They don't go the big route. Or maybe they just pick up a backup center

just to appease AD in the midst of this. Does that change anything for you guys? Again, they're better. They're better. Zach Levine, as we discussed last week, as an all-star level player, of course they would be better. Zach Levine is replacing Austin Reeves in this scenario. I guess you have to.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I would upgrade them for sure. Can I ask a question? What about that? Is that a defensive upgrade? I'm just putting that out in the universe. I'm thinking.

Theoretically. Theoretically. I just, I've not been thrilled with Austin Reeves in coverage this season. I'll say that. I think no. But let's circle back in like a couple weeks. But you have to think about it.

Yeah, I have to think about that one for a while. What if it's Miles Turner, which I don't think will happen because the Pacers barely have a backup center at this point? I don't know how they do that. But there is like a kind of a report out there that like, They don't want to pay him his next contract. So if they trade for Turner, that's their move.

Does that change anything for you guys? I like Miles Turner next to AD because, like, there's actually one good rim protector, roving, big kind of guy in AD. I mean, I think that could work, especially because spacing-wise, it has no effect on what AD and LeBron are trying to do on offense. I would enjoy that move. But again, you know, I've been a Miles Taylor. Taylor, excuse me, Miles Turner apologist for six years now. This is a pro-Miles Turner podcast. The problem with all this stuff is Miles Turner and AD could absolutely play together and play well together.

If you go that route, the route AD wants to go where you bring in another big, LeBron James is going to guard threes now? That's the thing that's going to happen on a regular basis. Finney Smith basically has to be your starting two at that point. I think it's probably still Max Christie. I don't know. These are the problems that the Lakers roster bring about. It's just hard to move the pieces around in a way that leads to a championship product.

LeBron is a power for it. If anything, he's a center. Like he's practically playing center with that second unit with Hachemura. And so he is not a problem with a defender anymore. Yes. So he has to be a four at worst, I think, if we're talking about who he's guarding on the other end, because he can still use his bulk and he's still smart as all hell.

Just he's not moving. He's also not like playing defense in general. Here's the thing too, right? Like because LeBron still kind of like looks exactly the same that he did, minus some of the hair stuff in Miami. Like a lot of people just can't get it through their heads. Sorry, I can't, I can't just gloss past.

You just throw that one away. Just like a little no look to the corner from Watts. Oh, damn. You know, just saying, just we got to be honest here in group chat. Okay. In the 2011 postseason, basically D. Rose's last healthy postseason, the year he won the MVP, LeBron James was guarding that guy on an island by himself in crunch time. No help.

Just guarding the league MVP, six inches shorter than him, just guarding him. No problem. And it was like, all right, they're done. We're getting the bulls out of here. Could you imagine LeBron trying to guard John Moran on an island in 2025? No 40-year-old man should even attempt it. Like, that's insane. I would not recommend it.

He can't guard quick people in space. That's not what he does. So this idea that he's going to be a three and guarding the world's best wing players is nuts to me. Yeah, that's kind of why I didn't have them on my pie because I just don't see the combination that really pushes them over some of these. other teams that we talked about, the Thunder in particular, but even like a Denver, a Memphis, they just seem like they're on another tier no matter what the Lakers are doing. So I don't have them in my pie pieces. One team I have that you guys don't, it seems, is the other team in Los Angeles, the Los Angeles

clippers. I have them with 1% pie. So the thinnest amount of pie possible before we get into the decimal point pies, which I also have. Oh, my God. As do I for the record. Okay, great. They have the second best defense in the NBA right now.

What they have certainly works. And then Kauai steadily, I wouldn't say he's looking great, but the numbers are pretty fantastic. Like, he's seconded in the NBA and point in for a little, or excuse me, plus minus. Now he's played like 157 minutes, and it was just a small sample. But like it just seems like it's working in the way that I kind of assumed it would,

where it's like they have this great context, and they're just adding one of the best isolation scores in recent history, like, into the mix. And so if we're talking about, like, you could see a team getting to the finals, getting and winning the title. Like, if you squint very, very hard, they do have the right mix and they check the right boxes in order to do so. Now, James Harden, obviously a huge concern. Can Kauai hold up for longer than 24 minutes in a game, which he doesn't play past at this point? Huge concern. I think that's worthy of 1% pie.

Justin, I, look, I'm a big enough man to apologize to you when, you know, I would say like about a month ago or so now, you described the Lakers and Clippers as being in the mix and I gave you a little guff for it. You know what? They are, in fact, in the mix. To me, to the tune of 0.5% in the title race, they are in the mix. I am sorry, Justin. Thank you. I think the potency of their defense and it stank.

power is pretty persuasive. Like they have something that a team like the Lakers does not. Like something to hang their hat on, a clear identity, a vision for what their team is, a clarity of purpose. But they do have all the question marks you described and more. There's also things like, you know, this is Norm Powell's first year carrying this kind of role. And you always have to be a little dubious of guys in the first year of doing something,

whether it's a scale up in usage, whether it's a different position, whatever it may be. As far as making through three or four rounds of the playoffs, that's a really tall order for someone like Norm to do his first crack at being this kind of score. That's where you would hope that a healthier version of Kauai that is slowly inching his way back over the last couple months of the season would help alleviate some of that pressure in those moments. I don't think it's actually going to happen, but I think the clippers have been good enough and steady enough that you have to put him on the board.

Also, Zubach has been awesome this season. Like, we didn't talk about him in the All-Star conversation because I don't think he would ever get a vote there. but like deep, deep list all stars. He's been there. He's been a two-way force at this point. He's been very good defensively. He's been a good post-up thing.

What is a deep list all-star? Just like a good player at that point. Like you're a top 75 player, I guess. I was thinking of this like the deep state. You know, it's just like these underground all-stars working throughout the league secretly pulling the strings of the entire operation. Related to the deep state, what is the, what is the event that would have to happen for the Clippers? to win the NBA championship.

Is it nuclear war with China? How to hell do the clippers with James Hardin at the helm? Although James Hardin did say Luca Ball, which is essentially Hardin Ball, got to the finals last year. That's what he learned from watching last year's NBA playoffs. And maybe Hardin Ball will be the way, guys, to this year's Western Conference Championship.

He's been awesome this year. He's been quite good. I mean, he's not put in a position to be his most efficient self, but he carries exactly what they need him to carry, which is to give these other guys relief and do so much playmaking for that outfit. Watching him manipulate space and defenders in order to set up the next guy is still incredible. He had one pass where he was like waiting for,

I think, Derek Jones Jr. to get into the pocket of space that he just created. He did like almost like a snake above the head sort of pass just to him at the thought like the free throw line. I'm like he could still do that very effectively. Obviously, I wonder what happens in the playoffs in terms of defense. If he isn't shooting well, they have a lot of guys. I think Derek Jones Jr. has been really awesome. Like we need to talk about him, maybe not on the PJ Tucker level, but then that sort of like range where it's like, he's not their best player, but he unlocks the best possible version of a team because he does all

the dirty work for them, guarding the best player on the other end. And also like, that guy still has bounce that I think they put to use in ways that like maybe even Dallas didn't. Yeah, To answer your question was, I think what needs to happen is Kauai is going to have to be some version of Kauai. Not the full Toronto boat, not the version that was even so critical for the spurs during his like post-champions, but like MVP-worthy seasons. He just needs to be really, really good at creating isolation offense and getting the clippers out of jams. And what that gets you is 0.5 to 1% title odds. It doesn't get you a lot, but it does get you in to the mix. You got a sliver. I have one less sliver that I pie. I have one less sliver that I pie. I have the bucks at 0.7% pie. Only because honestly, I think it's one of the

top three teams in the East and everybody else. I kind of just gave a nod to the bucks just because their issue in past playoffs have been Yannis isn't healthy. Like, it could have been completely different scenario if Yonis has just played every single games in those series. So, there's that factor and also the trade factor that you brought up, Rob. I'm a little concerned though because they're in the Bradley Beale mix. I know that Chris Middleton isn't giving them much these days, but that only seems to compound the issue and almost like drive the final nail and the Yannis coffin where it's like the Bradley Beale thing is like.

They should not do that. It's the same logic that the sons had in bringing Bradley Peel on. It doesn't it doesn't make any sense at all. So why, do you have the, do you have the bucks at all in your pie? Yeah, they brought my, my last crunch. Okay. My last crumbs with the rockets. It's really more of a morsel.

Because you've got like five percent. The Lakers. It's just crumbs. Like the clippers is just outright. I just refuse to ever give the clippers any country whatsoever. Justin said point seven. So like basically you need a microphone, microphone magnifying glass to see the freaking crumb that the clippers got.

They're just not a crumb team even for me. Wow. They're not even like the level of crumb where you could just scoop it up with a spoon. and throw it on some ice cream. They're not even at that level. No, it's like the type of crumb where you, you know, you kind of dust off the desk and you just dust it off. You don't even get a dustpan and like immediately scooping.

You can't even see. You just notice crumbs there. You just wiped off. Damn. Yeah. It's crumb dust. And so I have that point. Go ahead.

I want to say one thing about the bucks because to me they are a little bit more significant for one reason and one reason only, which is I think we're finally starting to see Janus and Dan. playing well together, which is a matter of- It's very in itself in the numbers too. Completely. It's just a matter of huge rotational importance for the bucks who did not have the means for them not to play well together,

and it showed for a long time. But those guys are the level of stars where when they crack the code on something like that, I think it does tilt the title race ever so slightly. Like those are incredibly dangerous players who have, you know what, even though it is a wanting, supporting cast at times, just enough around them to be competitive, with lots of different kinds of teams.

I can't help but give the Bucks some benefit of the doubt. And Yonis in particular, some benefit of the doubt. And I have met, again, 5% of the title race. Yeah, for me for the Bucks, I think to like be the team that they want to be, they have to be perfect. There's just no margin for error with this group. Like, they can't miss. You can't like make up ground on a misrotation.

Like, you can't pass the ball a hair late to your shooters. Like, everything has to be perfect for them to be. on the level of the guys at the top of the conference. Now, look, we've seen teams play perfect ball for a crazy stretch before, right? Miami Heat in recent years come to mind. Just a freaking Eastern Conference of just perfection of timely shooting of, like, craziness. That's the kind of thing to me that would have to happen to the box in order for them to reach, you know, that potential.

But I just do think the combination of Dame and Janus provide for a context with that. could be feasible, not likely, not probable, but I think it's a possibility for sure. Last piece of crumb dust, I guess at this point. I have the Rockets, 0.25 pie. And that's really only a nod to what they've done in the regular season. There's no chance in hell that this team wins the NBA finals. They're one of my favorite teams to watch. Honestly, in recent years, what I love doing now is talking to actual people within the NBA and asking them about Amen Thompson and they turn

into kids again. It's you get like a boy howdy like, who that guy like he, have you seen him? Like assistant coaches, everyone loves that dude. They have been awesome. I just don't know where the offense is going to come from in a playoff series. A lot of it is still like Jalen Green having a breakthrough game.

Like they look like a completely different team. But like, you know, the Shengoon, the Fredman the Leeds. It's just like I don't see them. I have anything. I think they're a susceptible first round out. I assume that you will probably get to the second round, but that's probably where it ends. Yeah, I think the case for the Rockets is

how many teams in the NBA, even among the cream of the crop, this playoff level competition, how many teams are as purely physical as Houston is? And what can that do to opponents? How can it take them out of their rhythm? How can it get into their heads? We've seen even teams as good as the thunder. If you're able to be big

and physical with them, you can kind of shake them out of what they do a little bit. that to me is the Rockets case. Not that they have an overwhelming offense because they don't. I just frankly don't think their half court is good enough yet and they're sophisticated enough yet and that their creators are at the level yet where they're going to go on a championship run. But I think they deserve a little more than, do you say, 0.25% Justin?

Yeah. I think the defense is too good. And ultimately they are another like dig points out of the trash kind of team that is going to be more difficult in the playoffs, but is not nothing. They are going to turn people over in transition. They are going to create second chances. They're still going to do that if at a slightly lesser scale. And to me, that gets you 3% of the pie.

Okay. Is that your last piece? I have one more, and I'm frankly embarrassed by it. It's the Suns, isn't it? It's the Suns. 0.5% for the Phoenix Suns based solely on the possibility that they could trade for Jimmy Butler.

That is literally the only reason they deserve any percentage at all. I'm kind of talking myself into the suns being pretty feisty with Jimmy. Like, it fits in a way that, like, at first I kind of scoffed at. The only problem is, like, this playoff run will be it. Like, next season could be even more disastrous because then you have to fill in all the spots that you trade players with. So, yeah. I like what Jimmy would bring, not just from, you know, he'll be a guy that ensures that they get paint touches, like paint shots up all playoffs long, which, you know, much as I love Devin Booker,

that's not what he does on a regular basis, not this year anyway. And KD just ain't been that in a while. Like, he just doesn't turn the corner on guys anymore. Like, he creates space for his lethal mid-range and that's what he does. And you kind of live and die by that. But Jimmy, he's still somebody who's going to get into the teeth of the defense.

And that's just an element they don't possess right now. So I think that would be cool. And I just think as an attitude addition, I think would be very, very, very, very welcome to this group of guys. So far, Nick Richards, Sue, has been just what the doctor ordered for them, given them like actual presence on the glass, actual backline defense. And so if he continues to do that and they bring in Jimmy Butler,

basically they would have to be a completely different team than the team that they have been. But Jimmy Butler is a transformative player and the level of star that, frankly, could get you a whopping 0.5% of the title pie. The counterpoint, they're currently half a game out of 10th place. have a game up on 10th place, and they have one of the toughest remaining schedules. So if they're going to do something,

they might actually have to do it sooner than later. Also, they almost lost the game to the Wizards because they were fucking around trying to get Nick Richards' 2020 game. Almost literally slipped on the banana peel. It's just... You can't even take the easy ones. The easy ones are hard for them.

Yeah. All right, those are the pies. We'll be back Thursday when we'll probably have to talk about the trade. deadline because that's fast approaching here. So thank you to Isaiah Blakely. Thank you to Ben Cruz. We'll talk to you next time.