The Ringer NBA Show - Divvying Up the Pre-Deadline Title Pie. Plus, What’s in an Hourglass Emoji? | Group Chat

Episode Date: January 31, 2024

Justin, Rob, and Wos start by talking about LeBron’s cryptic overnight tweet after another tough loss (1:50). Then they discuss Joel Embiid’s brief return from injury before getting hurt against the Warriors (11:50). Then they hand out some title pie. They start this exercise by deciding which teams have any chance to win the NBA Finals. Then they decide what percentage of the title pie each contender gets (19:35). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producers: Isaiah Blakely and Victoria Valencia Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

March Madness may be over, but the action on One Shining Podcast is just heating up, and we will be delivering two episodes a week, Monday and Thursday. And on Mondays, we will have the Ringer's very own Jay Kyle Mann to break down basketball and everything beyond with me once a week. And on Thursdays, we will have a jam-packed show full of amazing guests. We've also had some great guests so far, whether it's ESPN's Jay Billis, the icon Bill Walton, or our head honcho Bill Simmons. It's all happening on One Shining Podcasts.

Come join us wherever you listen to podcasts or on the Spotify app now. And welcome to group chat. I am Justin Barrier. No yes. Just Justin Barrier. Rob Mahoney is here. Big Wads is uncomfortably close to me in this studio. We've never been this intimate before.

Well, we can get more intimate. Let's do it. Rob put the kibosh on the Yays. I just want the people to know that we tried some things with the opening, but Rob said no. Yeah, I think we're all about execution around here. It just wasn't quite up to group chat par, but we're trying things. That's what's really important.

Always trying things. So I'm the Darwin Ham of this podcast, is what you mean? Yeah, you're starting this guy that night, starting that guy this night. You just got to throw things at the wall at a certain point. Yeah, it's actually a pretty good comp here. So today we're going to get into the title pie, something new. Or actually, it's probably the same old thing that we've done. We're going to call it something new.

We're going to splice up which teams deserve how much percentage of the title conversation going into the deadline. But first, we got to talk about LeBron James, tweeting out an hourglass after getting ambasted by the Atlanta Hawks last night. And I have to mention, he did this at 2.26 a.m. local time. I presume he's either still in the Lanner or making the trek to the East Coast. They have Boston on the first. was your thoughts just LeBron is the NBA's biggest drama queen

and I don't mean that pejoratively I really do believe and I've said this up here before that LeBron likes to have a certain amount of tension and you know unrest almost in every situation that he's in

obviously we've talked about the grumblings coming out of Lakers world that maybe everybody isn't super happy with what Darwin Ham is doing, particularly with the lineups and the different substitution patterns and who's starting this time and who's not and yada, yada, yada. And then of course they have this very embarrassing loss to the Hawks. And he tweets out an hourglass emoji, which again, this is in the long history of LeBron's social media, passive aggression. Most famously, we'll remember stop fitting out.

fit in when he dissed Kevin Love and now was back to being best friends. Other listeners will remember that during this season, he went out of his way to praise Ty Loo's. Said, oh, that's Ty Loo's operation. That's Ty Loo's team. Eric Spolster got a raise. And then he went on his Twitter to be like, he's worth every penny. He's playing the hits.

So he's, yes, LeBron is playing the hits. LeBron is dissatisfied with how things are going on to Lakers. and, you know, he's never going to do the thing where he goes into Jeannie Bus's office, or he goes or he calls Rob Lo on Roblo. Or he could. I mean, he could call Roblo. He's around wearing a neutral NFL hat somewhere, just ready to jump on the line. Or he calls Rob Polinka on the phone and starts yelling.

He's not going to do that. He's never going to do that. He's going to do this. He's going to do the passive aggressive in the press at his own press conferences. and nobody is surprised by this. Like nobody. And there's us thinking it's funny and honestly kind of fun that he does this.

I really don't think this is destructive to a team in any way. I agree with you. I was like LeBron is that kind of guy where he needs a little juice in the room. Like he needs something going on throughout the season to keep energized sometimes. There are role players who can deal with that better than others.

There's certainly guys who can deal with all the trade rumors better than others. Like it takes a particular kind to get by, and succeed on a LeBron James team. But this is what a lot of the great players have done. Like Michael Jordan was no stranger to controversy. Kobe Bryant was no stranger to stirring shit up. Guys have done this for a long, long time.

LeBron's just elevating the form through emoji. And really what I learned throughout the saga, Justin, is not only are there hourglass emojis, but there's multiple. And LeBron tweeted specifically the time itself emoji. I didn't know about this until Wa is my true detective partner here on this set So, decided to dive into it.

The thing about the emoji that he tweeted, and I'm pretty sure of this, is that on iOS, it's a times up, but the Mac iOS, it's like an even time. So it's... In the eye of the beholder,

is... It's ambiguous. Does management view his tweets on iPad? Are they viewing it on their phone? we don't know. We'll just have to see, I guess. If they have an Android, then they might not see it at all. It's true.

Little X, no question mark. It could be even worse. I can't wait until someone has to ask LeBron, did you tweet this on a phone or a computer or what platform did you engage in X.com? Well, here are the two kind of downsides to doing that because, Rob, you kind of laid out the case for why this is probably a, like, worthy motivation or at the very prompted motivation.

Um, on the one hand, his other teammates are starting to fall suit. And before this game, Christian Wood, presumably in the locker room, based on the timing of his tweet, tweeted out, L.O.L. And now after the game, he said that he accidentally meant to quote tweet something and then put that on top of that, which I have to say, as far as like trying to cover your tracks, one of the best ones. You know, this isn't Eric Ledso. I was in a salon, my bad. He, like, this is plausible. obviously isn't what actually happened, but I have to say, like, nice job trying to, at the very least, sidestep this. What do you think he was trying to quote tweet, like just some dank Taylor Swift memes coming out of a, or coming into Super Bowl fever?

Exactly. I missed the days when guys just got hacked. Yes. I was hacked. That's what happened. That LOL was a hacking. I just remember Mello, like, had this, like, really pointed diss for some guy or girl who tweeted at him.

It was like, he went in. And then afterwards he was like, yo, that wasn't even me. It was a hacking. It's like, come on, Mello. The other part of this, I wonder if like how the Gen Z fan base feels about this maneuver. Because this is now set in stone.

This just kind of feels a little dated for the medium. Like I wonder if LeBron, much like a Madonna, should be entering a new phase with every sort of team he's griping about. And so when he told, I'm kind of like, I don't take it seriously. Like before when the fit out thing happened, everything was going wild. ESPN was going crazy. I'm sure they are now as we're recording this.

But like, it doesn't have the same impact. So there needs to be a new iteration, I would say, of this same sort of routine. You got to leave that to the young men in the league. You can't be the guy who's 40 trying to act 20. Like that is as cringe worthy as anything you could possibly do. Well, unfortunately, none of those young men actually are on the roster because this team is seriously in need of some injection of life. I was watching the game last night between the Warriors and the Sixers. And you could just see the difference that Jonathan Kaminga makes for the

Warriors because of the athleticism and juice that he has. The ability to get up the floor while everybody else is like throwing the outlet passes and be like, see ya, like, can you just finish this playoff for us? The Lakers look lifeless going to the deadline. I don't know if we need to really dive into this because we have a few times here now. But I got to say they got to do something. and the Lakers have been in this position practically every year since LeBron James has been on that team but I don't know, Rob, what do you think?

Is there anything new to add to this conversation? I think what's bad about their current position is that they have been better offensively and yet they still find ways to stumble into these frustrations. They still blow games, they shouldn't blow. Their offense and defense can't both be good at the same time. And most importantly, the rotation doesn't have any kind of stability to it. And you can put a lot at Darwin,

feet for the way that the Lakers season has gone, in particular is management of specific players, but also just the fact that he hasn't given really any option time to coalesce. Maybe there's a version of this Lakers team that would have worked if you would have stuck with it. And some of it, like I know we've gone around and around with guys like Jared Vanderbilt, for example, who it's so clear that in the playoffs, Jared Vanderbilt is probably going to get played off the floor in some matchups. It's probably not going to be tenable in some matchups.

But guess what? You're the Lakers. you're trying to make the playoffs. You're fighting to make the playoffs. I would say in some ways they've gotten ahead of themselves trying to solve future problems and not solve the fact that they are not a good regular season team. So, yes, a lot of people have pointed at Darwin Ham

as the what the tweet emoji was pointed toward. Our friend Dave McMinneman, also longtime Lakers Beat Rider, LeBron Ryder, friend of the podcast, we all love Dave, tweeted out some interpretations of this. hourglass emoji tweet. Time is running out to turn this Laker season around. LeBron's career is not a renewable resource, and so it's time to maximize what's left.

Patience is wearing thin. Hashtag watched King. Imagine if I was thinking about this, because I just watched The Godfather, too. Imagine if, like, there was a mafia beatwriter, like a Michael Corleone beatwriter. Sure. And after he kissed Fredo,

someone tweeted out, I think that this means that Michael is looking to make a change. I think that his patience is wearing thin. Why wasn't that you? Why weren't you live tweeting The Godfather, too? I wish. So here's the thing. And I'm glad you brought up Jonathan Kaminga because he's an example of agitating in the press

actually working, right? Steve Kerr had to be dragged, kicking and screaming into playing Kaminga more because Kaminga basically hollered in the press about not getting tick, being jerked around with his playing time. And, you know, that hourglass emoji on LeBron's part, of course, he's agitating in the public. But that, in Dave's, there's a lot of truth

in what Dave said, because it applies to a lot of things. Like LeBron's career, this iteration of the roster, this type of management style. Like, it's like, all right, man. it's almost over for this. Yeah, our time on planet Earth, you know, we're going to be slowly absorbed by all the oceans. The big one is

coming, you know? Like, we got to get the word out. Yeah, no, I don't doubt that what Dave is putting out there is true. If anything, it's like, it's fairly obvious what I think the tweet means, you know? But you mentioned Jonathan Kaminga. Briefly, I do want to talk about Joelle

and Bede, who, what do you know, played through what seemed to be an injury because people bullied him online relentlessly. And what do you know, he got hurt. If anything, it sounded like, according to Nick Nurse after the game, that this wasn't the reoccurring injury that he had, that this might be a new one on top of that. And so I just would like to set the record straight that we were one of the few people, podcasts, etc., out there, even like giving credit to this sort of possibility, everyone else was just piling on Joel. I feel like we, the record will reflect, like, greatly for us.

So the other day you were mad about other people being mad. Today you're happy about other people being wrong. Well, that's my favorite thing in the world. I look, well, first of all, I have to confess that since our podcast, I went on David Aldridge and Markets Thompson's podcast on the Athletic. And I basically was like, I wish he would have played against Yokic. You know, like, I just wish it would have happened. We all wish that, yeah.

I wish like he would have just been like, you know what, I'm going to suck it up and play against Yolkich specifically because of the conversation that's been around it. I will say I watched last night's game in the first half. Look, we do a lot of body language doctoring at this company on this show. Joelle looked like a kid that was forced to clean his room. That was forced to brush his teeth that had to go back and do the dishes. He moped around the entire first half like, I can't believe I'm being forced to hoop, even though hooping is my freaking occupation.

He did that the whole half, and he obviously did not want to be there. And it felt obvious that he was doing it out of some sense of obligation because people were killing him. Obviously, it sucks that Kaminga fell on his leg at some point during this game, but that play is something that happens

literally every single game. people are diving for lose balls every single game you play basketball you're at risk for that happening i don't like i don't think this was some like you know he rushed back from some muscle injury and he tore a muscle or something like that like this is a freak accidental basketball play i mean i hope he's all right i'm pretty sure he is i'm think he's going to come back i think the conversation about dr wa's over here i'm just listen man i've done this before i'm just telling you. You've seen the x-rays.

You've seen the MRIs. You know. I seem to remember the Yannis hyper extension. I told people he was going to be fine in the playoffs. I have no idea what you're talking about. He went on to win finals MVP after the hyper extension. But that goes without saying. Look, all I'm saying is there's a conversation to be had about the 65 games.

And I think it speaks to the relative, I don't know, lack of direction of the players union that this could even come to pass. right, a decision that so many of their membership is against, that it could be negotiated this way. And we could talk about how stupid or smart or whatever it was to put that threshold in, especially considering that stuff like MVP, all-MBA, all-star teams, stuff like that.

There are contract incentives laced within those. So, I mean, that's a different conversation. But the Joel thing, I'm not like, oh, people should feel bad that they encourage this got to play. Like, I think that's right. ridiculous. The reality is if you're an NBA player, you're going to have to play games. You're going to have to participate for your team.

If you're Joelle and Bede, you're so important to have on the floor every night that you could possibly play. You guys are walking back the goodwill that I've fostered for this podcast. I'm saying there's a long game involved where you have to be conscious of your body

and you have to maintain it over the course of the season. And the 65 game requirement has thrown a big wrench into that. I think there's been a lot of unintended consequences as a result of the 65 game requirement, not really for MVP so much as all NBA, which is, that's when you're messing with people's money, when you're taking away their ability to get the supermax, for example. Like, that's a big deal. Right. In this case, I think what I'm worried about with the 65 games with Joelle, with cases like these, is not, is he going to re-injure the thing he's already

hurt so much as is the rest of his body already kind of rung out and overstretched and overcompensating for the injury he does have? And what are the results of that if you're playing extended? games because of this pressure. Yeah, that's my thing. I definitely think there is a load management issue that the league needs to eradicate. I understand that. But Joelle really isn't the best example in order to apply this conversation. His whole career has been littered with injuries for the first two to three years.

And even beyond that, we worried that this guy would get hurt any minute. He had Dakota, where was it? Africa in order to hide out in order to rehab his leg just to be able to play NBA basketball. basketball. If he's not going to play and he says he's hurt and he tries during pre-game in order to play in that game and is a late scratch, I'm going to

want to believe it. You know, he's got the 10,000 hours in being hurt, especially with his lower body. So like, let's just not do that with Joel and B. That's all I'm saying. I hear that. At the same time, what I would present to people is, I think the last time something this high profile

happened was the 2019 finals with Kevin Durant, where He had the calf injury. And it seemed like a whisper campaign was started, perhaps amongst his own team, that this guy is milking this injury. He needs to come back. We're on the verge of losing the fucking championship.

And he needs to come back. And in that same right leg with the messed up calf, he snaps his freaking Achilles by coming back. That was horrible. Bob Myers boohooed in a press conference afterwards. It was so freaking horrible. I say all that to say, that ain't this. Okay, some guy fell on Jowell's leg.

It's unfortunate, okay? I wish it didn't happen. I feel pretty confident that Joel's going to come back at some point and be relatively healthy and ready to go for the rest of the season. That's the diagnosis from Dr. Waz. That's right. It's a new segment. All right.

It has a nice ring to it. Dr. Waz, M.D. We'll work on that one. We'll call the University of Phoenix to see if we can get some sponsorship going. At least an honorary degree somewhere, I would think. Yeah, totally. Fandals putting the ball in your court for the rest of the NBA season. Because right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet.

That's $200 if your bet wins. So we're looking at Wednesday night's slate, in particular, Suns Nets, the return. for Kevin Durant. We'll see if he gets a tribute video on the big screen in Brooklyn, but I actually like the Sons in this one, minus three. The Sons have been rolling with the big three in tow. And the Nets, I mean, they're day to day at this point, but I personally don't really trust that lineup.

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Bonus issued as non-witrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. All right, let's get to the matter at hand here. So we have a lot of pies on this podcast. We got the praise pie. We got the blame pie. This is a new offering that we have that I've cooked up in my kitchen. that is this Google Doc.

This is the title pie. Basically, we're wondering at this point, going into the deadline, which teams legitimately have a shot to win the title. I think that's going to inform some of the action

that's going to happen over the next week or so. It's also just like a pretty big question when there are a lot of teams kind of jumbled up at the top of the standings in both conferences. And so what we're going to do

is we're going to assign percentages to each team that we think is in the conversation. is in the title race, can actually win the title this year. And then obviously the teams with the bigger percentages are the ones we believe in the most. The teams with the lower, yada, yada. Can we agree, can we first figure out who's getting pie? Yes, I think that's the first move here.

I think what we need to do is come up with the definites and then kind of cross off the teams. He's going to get some pie, even if it's just a nibble of the pie. Yeah, a little bit of crust. 0.5%. Yeah. You're getting some pie. Yeah. Okay.

So should we start with the bottom up then? Or do you want to start for the most likely championship championship teams? Let's start with the most likely. Yes. I think let's just get the definites out of the way. Yeah. And so here's what I have written down as the clear cut with a bullet. I don't think you guys are going to push back on.

Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves. And this is just based on the standings as I saw them last night. Oh, who's actually the favorite for the championship? Right. Yeah, yeah. Denver Nuggets. Milwaukee Box. Oklahoma City Thunder.

Los Angeles Clippers. New York Knickerbockers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat. With the bullet, no questions, right? Hmm, I would agree with some, I would disagree with some of those. Interesting. Okay. Like actually winning the NBA championship this year? Yes.

Yeah, no. So, like, I'm willing to give like a 1% to certain teams even lower on this list, just to get them on it. Yeah, actually, I think there's more teams that are going to get into the 1% less than 1% kind of category. Because in part what we're calculating is not just how good they are, but do they have the capacity to make one more move? Do they have something in them that we haven't seen yet? Right. So at least Rob and I agree that these are the teams that are in consideration.

So we won't cross them off right now. Cleveland Cavaliers. Rob, do you want them on or off? I want them in. Okay. Sacramento Kings? I think no. I would probably agree.

Definitely agree. Phoenix Suns. Yes. They get some, yeah, they get it with a pie. Dallas Mavericks. Okay, so the Mavericks, I think, are, they're the worst team I'm willing to consider, I think.

So that's like a 0.5% of the pie. That's what I was thinking for them. They get to lick the pie. The tin, yeah. So these are the teams that were crossing off entirely then. The New Orleans Pelicans, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Lakers.

That's tough. A LeBron team. that doesn't have a 0.5% chance of winning a title? We got a game. Time's up. I mean, the time's up. Their time is up.

Or there's just time in existence, according to the other emoji. We don't know which one. Oh, that's true. I mean, yeah, now we're getting into true detective territory with Tom being a flat circle. This is why we have Rob on the podcast.

Let's get off the Lakers, yeah. It's relative at the very least. Rob, they said you was grinding true detective tape before you got here, which is why you were late. That's what they tried to say. I'm on my fourth rewatch combing the backgrounds of scenes

just trying to see photos on the wall. Yeah. All right. So other teams that wouldn't be in the mix, Indiana Pacers. I think the Pacers have a case. No. No?

Not even a 0.5% chance? No. I mean, no. Have you watched them recently? I've watched them with Tyreys Halliburton and Seaccom on the floor together in which they're blowing teams out by like 30 points for 100 possessions. Hasn't he only played like two games with Seacom?

Oh, it's a baby little sample size. A tiny little sample size. Okay. They did look pretty good against the Celtics last night, but the games without him have been brutal. I don't know how healthy he is, is my question. It's going to be a matter of who's healthy for them. But in terms of like their top eight, I think their top eight is a group that I trust

more than some of these other teams we're about to eliminate. So maybe a borderline team, if you guys don't have any faith in them at all, that's fine. But I think there may be in the 0.5 percent. or if you want to really shave it down, 0.3%, 0.1%, but I think it's higher than zero. So we have 14 teams currently in the mix for Pye. The Golden State Warriors are the last team

that I have on the list as a potential. It's just... I don't see it. I don't know there. I don't see four rounds of winning hoop. No, there's just... No. And that's my question with the Pacers.

Like, we're getting rid of the... the Warriors who have proven it in the playoffs. Yeah. If the Warriors are out, to me, the Pacers can't get pie. Pacers are out. I'm sorry, Rob. No pie for them. By the way, I have to say, like, we've come up with some dumb bits on this podcast,

but as I was writing out, title pie pre-deadline on this doc last night, I was like, this is the dumbest shit. Do you have an official name for this segment? Title Pie. Just Title Pie? Pre-deadline edition. All right. Pre-deadline edition. meaning we're going to revisit this, Rob, after the deadline.

That listener is a promise. Yes. All right. So where should we start with the Lakers, perhaps? If we must. Was, where are you on them? Do they get a percentage? As things stand, no.

This is not a team capable of winning four rounds in Adam Silver's NBA. Like, it's not happening for them. One, just obviously the disdain they have for their coach right now is just obvious. The unevenness of the roster is obvious. The age of LeBron James, the injury, historical risk of Anthony. Like, there's so many things going against them that I think it would just be foolhardy to think that these guys are anything other than, you know, going to be an also-ran this year. Well, let's stack the percentages for them.

What do we think the odds are that they even make the play in? Oh, I think they will. So here's the difficulty here. Absolutely. Because we're doing this right before the deadline, and I have to believe the Lakers are among the teams that are going to do something. Maybe it's a Dejante Murray. Maybe it's something a little bit lower.

Maybe they just get rotation players in there. But I think last year's post-decline period is at least enough to give them a percentage, because look what we saw about them just filling out the rest of the roster. They made it all the way to the goddamn Western Conference Finals. Now, they didn't make to the finals, did not make it to obviously winning the title. And so if you want to push back on that, you could say that there was a pretty low ceiling, not low ceiling, but high ceiling for that team inevitably. And so if you're like, well, I think they can get back to the West finals, but they can never make it past a Denver or OKC, whomever. I'm willing to buy that as an argument as well.

Yeah, I think I would need to be sold overwhelmingly that they could make it out of one. round. Okay. I just don't, I don't think this team has, has what it takes for even that, especially when you think about if they do make the playoffs,

they're going to be playing those Minnesota, Denver OKC teams starting in round one. So they're going to have to beat teams that are that good, basically every round to even get to the conference finals, and then certainly to make it out of the West.

I don't know. Like, if this team just had DeJante Murray, and it was Murray, Reeves, LeBron, A.D., fill in the fifth spot, Tori and Prince, whever you want to throw in there, Vanderbilt, whatever.

Like, that's enough to put LeBron into a series, especially with the team that hasn't been through the crucible of the playoffs. And as we know, one of the rules on this podcast, you have to have done it in the playoffs previously for us to believe in you. Which team has that more in abundance than Los Angeles Lakers? So I would advocate for at least the percentage, but, you know, this is a group exercise. So I'm willing to concede here. I think, look, I think if the season ended today, which is another sports media crutch that, I love. But if the season ended today and, you know, we threw the Lakers in the playing mix,

like I would have no reason not to believe that they couldn't, you know, beat New Orleans or Dallas or Utah or somebody to get into the actual real playoffs. And then the question becomes, like, honestly, outside of Denver in a do-or-die situation, I don't think Oklahoma City overwhelms the Lakers. I really don't believe that. particularly because they're so young and they're so freaking skinny. And, you know, those are the type of, like, these, like, teams that are lacking in physicality are the kinds of teams that the Lakers tend to thrive against, you know, see the Warriors last year. In a do-or-die situation if the season ended today. But the season isn't ending today.

And there's so much room for things to go even more horrifically worse, particularly, again, if you think about the injury risks and all of that, again, LeBron's age, AD's history. Like, anything happens to one of those guys for any period of time. This team is dunzo and dead in the water. So, you know, as it stands, I just, like, as there exist right now, I don't see how they could go to win a fucking chance. That's just impossible right now. Like, it feels impossible.

For the record, I do think they would be overwhelmed by teams like the Thunder. I think that teams like that just have more than the Lakers can handle in a lot of different respects. I think if we saw that series, Che Gueh Gilles-Alixander is the best player in it. And that's a huge, huge problem for the Lakers. You guys are doing the same thing you did last year, where you're letting the recent results color your perception of the bigger picture. I think LeBron in a series is going to have the edge on virtually anyone. And while on paper, they don't match up with the talent of some of the... the teams that we're mentioning. I think he has to be in there. But here's what I'll do.

Since we're doing this pre-deadline, they haven't actually made the moves that I'm assuming they're going to make. Let's put them in the zero pile until they actually do that. And when we revisit this, this will make a little bit more sense. Well, but I think we need to wait in the possibility that they could. So I think that puts some more, given what we've talked about in the 0.5% to 1% kind of group. I would advocate strongly for them being 1 to 2, but it's up to you. guys. Was, maybe let's start with one, Was.

How do you feel about that? Let's start with one. Meaning 1% or 2%? Yeah. 1% chance that the Lakers won the title. I don't think there's a 1% chance the way things are going right now

that this team can win the finals. Or do I? And I don't think, and I think the reason why somebody like LeBron has to agitate in the press the way he does is because it's not a guarantee. He doesn't have this like direct line,

the genie to be like go out and do this thing or else I feel like some of these things would have happened already and so he's doing it in a different kind of way so that to me that means there's a there's a um more than zero percent possibility that they don't do anything that they stand pat like I would be shocked by that that they stay in completely pat I think they do something okay I think they're in the zero then I would like the the people to know the people at the forum club in particular that I am advocating on your band.

Rule them out. Lakers is 0%. That's tough. Dallas Mavericks. Rab, you're the one who wanted them here. Yeah, I'm willing to entertain them for a few reasons.

One, they haven't been healthy all season. So I don't think what we've seen from them really captures what they could be. Two, they do have a chance to make a move at the deadline in a way that consolidates

some of their roster and actually makes them better. And three, they have a dude who can score 73 points in a game. And I think the Luca plus and really the Luca and Kyrie factor gives them an ability to overwhelm

an outlast in series that some of these other teams just don't have. So I'm not saying they have a great shot. They have a lot to prove. Their defense is not at anything resembling championship level right now, but 0.5% seems reasonable. I think anyone with a

superstar on Luca's level deserves at least a one. That's why I'm kind of advocating for the Lakers here. Young Legs, he's a younger superstar, right? And so actually having him do the work of superstardom is not as onerous as it is on LeBron and AD, obviously. So, yeah, I'm fine with them having, you know, a snowball chance in hell of winning a championship this season.

Sure. Well, the deadline. It's a high threshold. Yeah. The deadline also relevant to this team as well. Rob, you spent a lot of time down there recently. Do you expect them to do something here? Just considering how all in they are at this point,

but they still have at least a pick to trade. Why not just keep going down the rabbit hole? I think they will at some point. The question is whether it's at this deadline or in the offseason potentially. But this is a team with very clear needs that needs size, that needs defensive rebounding, that has in some ways more players

than they can actually kind of fit into the rotation. So a consolidation will make sense at some point, I just don't know if they, I don't know if they feel confident enough in what they've seen. And by confident, I mean confident in the clarity to know what it is. To know, like, what do we even have when basically every game they've played this season

has been without like two guys in their rotation. I would say 1%. Let's give them a 1. I think we can talk about the Cavs now, who, yeah, incredible. Even though Evan Mobley comes back, doesn't look good at all, still beat the Clippers on their home court,

which I have to say, Of all the alternate home courts, the calves like the land floral, whatever is going on there, I like it. The land as a nickname is the dumbest fucking thing in history. It's just something LeBron said once specifically to try to give them a nickname. Having said that, the court itself, the jerseys, not bad. Is the land not a broader Cleveland thing? No. Hell no.

I just assumed it was something LeBron was trying to make fetch happen. He started in like 2014 when he came back or whatever. I'm back to the land or all of the crappy I'm coming home all of that nonsense it was all part of that terrible cynical marketing push

of him going back to Cleveland I just feel like once LeBron said it it got seated in my mind that oh this has always been this has always been the nickname it's always been the land as long as I can remember not a thing so the calves have been on a heat rock of late they just got Mowbly back

Garland I think is coming back this week later this week So the cavalry is coming. I don't know if that's a good or a bad thing because they played so well without those guys. I am of the opinion that this team doesn't deserve to be on this list. I think they're very good. I'm happy for them sorting things out.

But they're the clear sort of team that I don't think actually has a chance to win the title, even though I think that they might make it to, let's say, the second round this year. I could see that, but that for me is their ceiling. The ceiling feels very harsh, right? It seems pretty established where they can't go. and what makes them confusing is, as we've said,

like as they get healthier, their playoff outlook only gets more and more complicated. And that feels like a problem coming off a team that last postseason was basically pushed into a full-on existential crisis on the court against the Knicks. Like the fact that the Cavs don't really know who they are at this stage doesn't preclude them from winning games or being good or rallying in the way that they've rallied,

but it isn't necessarily conducive to a long, successful playoff run. So obviously the calves have been way better than the Lakers this entire season by record, by point differential, by eye test, by whatever you want to use. They've been a better team. However, I think this is as close to as good as you can expect the Cavs to be at any point this year, right? I think they're playing pretty close to their peak capabilities. Whereas the Lakers with LeBron and AD, I think they can play way better. I just don't think they can play that way over the course of 82 games. And that's why their record looks the way that it looks,

because what it takes for them, what it would take for them to play at a playoff level, their bodies just cannot sustain that over six freaking months. Like, they can't play six months of basketball that way. But if you ask them a week and a half, two weeks at a time to do it, you know, later on in the year, I think they would be much better. But, again, getting there is why we excluded them, And I think for, you know, some of the same reasons, but, you know, a little bit different.

I just, I don't think the Cavs are capable of playing much better than this. I don't think a playoff series turns Donovan Mitchell into this guy that controls the game and can dictate to the best defenses in the NBA. I think this is who they are. They're a nice, regular season team. But when push comes to shove, you know, let's just say... They get shoved out of the way. They get shoved out of the way, right?

Like, let's just say they ended up a game. against the Knicks in a 4-5 again? Like, does anybody think they could beat the Knicks? No. No. Especially not the way the Knicks are playing now. Right. No.

Oh, boy. Todd Gibson back? Can't paint that team. Well, so, Justin, are you zeroed out on the Cavs? I'm zeroed out. Yeah, you? I could see 1%, but I, look, I think if you're going to make the argument for Cleveland to have anything, it would have to be on the grounds that they would be materially different from last year.

And the way you make that argument would be their stars have been through, the crucible, seeing the playoffs, they know that intensity, maybe they learned from it, maybe they come to it with something different next time around, even if it is against the Knicks. The spacing is different and in some ways better. Max Drus, at least gets guarded. He's not hitting a ton of threes this season, but he gets guarded. Dean Wade's hitting over 40%. George Nying is going to get those shots up.

Those are guys who do make an impact on the spacing. And to be honest, the Knicks are a uniquely awful matchup for them, as we saw last time around. And so maybe if they dodge the Knicks in some way, they have a better chance of advancing, but I don't even know who the better outcome would be, the more preferable opponent would be. The Sixus?

No. I don't see that. Jwell is healthy, though, as you said. It's going to be healthy. Don't worry. So I'm going to zero them out. We are getting into a next tier of teams, though, where I think we're past the one percenters,

unless Rob, you see or was. Do you see any other teams? No. Straight 1%. Should we just? jump to the top and work down then? Sure. Sure.

Keep going up. Okay. Um, you want to start with the Celtics? Sure. Yeah. I think the question is, how much pie are we given them? 51%. How big?

Is that a genuine suggestion or are you fucking with me right now? He's fucking with you. That would mean that to him they deserve the biggest slice of the pie of every team in the NBA. I will bet there's literally anything. you want on the field. All right. So what's a more reasonable pie suggestion? 30%.

I have 23% for the Celtics. Okay. That's what I was thinking. I have, because if I'm giving Denver like 35s, basically one and three chance of winning this thing, the Celtics got to be in the freaking 20s. Here's my suggestion. And I think this gets at the broader exercise here.

I would give the nuggets in the Celtics. a heaping portion. I would let them split, for instance, maybe 30 and 30. And then we figure everything else out. But I think you guys are agreeing that these are the two teams to be at this point. Yes, they are going to get half

or a little more than half of the pie between the two of them. 30 and 30 is a lot considering the number of teams we have left to go through. I think especially in the West. There's a lot of West teams that have a reasonable case.

And by reasonable case, I mean, are probably going to end up around 10-ish percent of this pie. Here's the thing. Here's my thing. Any team that beats Denver in a playoff series out west can beat the fucking Celtics, okay? Like, I'm sorry. This idea that a team would beat Denver, but they'd play the Celtics and be like, oh, I'm overwhelmed now. Like, there's just no way. I can't, I refuse to believe that. Amid all our incredulity,

we should acknowledge the Celtics are definitely the best team this regular season. Yes. definitely have the most loaded roster in the league. Yes. If only any of that made me feel great about how they're going to react when they get smacked in a series. I'm not concerned about the Celtics falling apart, but I'm still concerned about them spinning sideways in like a deadlocked game five or not closing out a series the way they should. Like those thoughts are still bouncing around my brain and like blowing it in some fourth

quarters against like these teams that they should beat doesn't necessarily help that. Sure. I agree with that. And I do think recency bias is probably going to play a large effect here because the Celtics have been a little shaky of late,

especially against some of the better teams. Even last night against the Pacers, all of a sudden that became a game. Chris Ops Porzingis goes out, oh no, the season is over. The season does probably hinge on the lower body of a player who has been consistently hurt

outside of last season throughout his entire career. So I will grant that. Having said that, Jamal Murray missed like what, months and we're not as worried about that now because he's played he actually hasn't been Jamal Murray as we knew him previously this season like he was in our all-star conversation he was a very deep cut sort of long list sort of guy having said that he does come through in

the right moments including every right moment including against the box the other night but I think they are very clearly on the same tier probably the same percentage I think you guys would probably disagree with that part. I would give the Nuggets a slight edge. Like in my notes, I have Nuggets 25%, Celtics, 23%. So in the ballpark, clearly peers. Yeah, I can get with that. But like, you know, I'm not sure if the buzzer is still in effect

on mentioning the Nuggets championship. But like, I just have the utmost respect for Denver's playoff execution. Like that is a team that knows how to diagnose problems in real time and that has the skill and the acumen to do something about whatever it is. that I trust. The Celtics, I trust their talent, but I still need to see them crack a lot of these codes

that have plagued them in previous playoff series. I'm willing to grant that. I think the next team on the list is where it gets really interesting. Does someone want to throw the next team that they feel the most confident in?

Man, I would... I probably would say the Timberwolves, honestly, for me. Timberwolves over the thunder and over the clippers. Over the thunder and over the clippers. Over the thunder and over the... the clippers because, well, the clippers

because of the injury concerns. Sure. It's like Paul George and Co-I landed a huge major injury risk concerns and without either one of those guys like I don't have really have time for the clippers. But I think at their strength, at full strength, they're right there with Minnesota.

But again, to me with Minnesota, I look at their defense the same way I look at Murray and Yokic's two-man game. Like a thing that will travel, that will be there, that will be versatile and multiple in how they could stop people because of

the talent on the wings, the rim protection that they can provide, just the unity with which they're playing their defense right now. And just having something that a unit, that elite, to me,

is so important in the playoffs. when things go haywire, that you have something that you can fall back on. That's what, like, that's the thing about Denver. It's like in, like when something goes haywire

in the course of a game and the crowd is yelling at you, they just go, all right, run the Murray-Yokets 2 main game. Just do that. Just spam this shit. Make these people come up

with answers for this freaking unstoppable action. So obviously the Timber Rules defense isn't as proven and playoff tested and all of those things. Obviously. The look on Justin's face

whenever we talk about the Nuggets, I wish everyone could see it. Obviously, the Timberwolves defense isn't as pedigreed or as proven. But for me, I trust that more than anything else, like whatever OKC has to offer, of course, Shea Gilder's Alexander individually brilliant. But a lot of his going to come now to Lou Dord, who's making his three,

he's making big-ass shots and big moments. And I'm supposed to be like, yeah, that's a thing that I think is going to happen. Okay. So there's a lot of things at play here. Not only the Denver just like orgasm fest happening. It has to happen. Even when we're not even talking about Denver.

But also. Who compares to Denver, though? Who could beat Denver is what we're talking about. But also, Wazney Lambray, the guy who is a huge proponent of defense being the most important thing in the NBA, offense, doesn't matter. I just say offense doesn't matter I said having having something that you can count on

consistently and like again I get that if we could go back to the Boston Celtics very talented nothing consistent about these dudes except for winning every fucking year

yes yes and shitting the bed every year too in spots that nobody would expect them to that's been consistent shit the bed seems extreme for what happens to the Celtics that people wouldn't expect them to, right?

I think only the Heat series is really one. You could point to, and the Heat just steamrolled every team. You think being up to one against Golden State in the finals and collapsing in Game 4? I think that that should have been expected. I think the teams at that time, everyone would have expected the Warriors to win that. Considering how well Wiggins was playing, I think if we were to roll the tape back with hindsight, you'd be like, oh, okay. I mean, Jason Tatum was like 23 years old. Anyway, we're getting sidetracked.

Like, let's keep it to the wolves because they are an interesting team to talk about in a league where offense now wins championships. And they get shaky in fourth quarters. I don't I don't totally trust their decision making at the end of games. It makes me very nervous. But they are a good, tough team. They're super hungry. They're really proud of how they play. And they're another group that has the potential to make a move.

Like, if they get one more ball handler off the bench, I think that could really help them. And I say that with a salute to Jordan McLaughlin, but I want someone with more size and a little more juice in that spot. So I'm taking out, the reason why I take out the Oklahoma City Thunder, I just think they're too small. They're talented. They're athletic, but they are so freaking small. And in the playoffs where people get ruthless about matchup hunting

and, you know, anybody on that team getting a quick two files in the first, I could just see it clear as day with a team that just comes in with a side. size disadvantage and pretty much any series past the first round, they're going to be at a distinct size disadvantage. And they're young. And I'm just like, man, that's a lot to overcome. Being young and small seems like a lot to overcome. It's just like to me, Minnesota, with all this size and as discombobulated as their

offense can look at times, I just think, man, like Aunt Edwards and even, you know, as stupid as Carl Anthony Town. You know, he is a supremely talented. Very rude. A stupid at basketball sometimes. Not as like a person. I don't know him. That's still rude.

I'm just saying he's not the most head smart basketball player all the time. I just really, I don't know. Is this something about this Wolf's team that I believe in? You know, like the talent, the size, the fact that they're, you know, that they've developed an identity, a distinct. the identity as like we're the team that stops people, that kind of stuff matters to me. See, I think this is where the math kicks in for me, where a team like the Thunder, yes, they will be at a disadvantage there. And the fact that they haven't been there before to figure out the math of it all and how to

exploit sort of matchup advantages, I wouldn't go with them. But the fact that they can outscore the wolves who are 19th in offense, to me, that's a clear advantage for the Thunder. And I would actually, for that reason, lean as my third team on this list, the adult version of that same basic concept, which is the Los Angeles Clippers, probably looked like the best team in the NBA for two months at this point. And they really haven't even gone to the small ball lineup that I assume that they would because they've been relying so much on playing with the big, presumably because Hardin has forced them

to do so because he cries about it every time he goes to a new team. But they threw it out there kind of as a junk lineup late in the game against the Cavs. And the announcers made a good point that Tylo only does that when he feels like he has to. He hasn't had to do that and explore what I think could be

a pretty dangerous kind of throw it out there at the end of the game. Let's see what happens. We're to line up. And that's what got them to the West Finals a few years ago with probably lesser talent. Now they have Hardin and all these other guys in there. For me, I think they're a clear cut three, Rob. I don't know about a clear cut.

We'll say this about the Clippers. They are looking like they're going to go into the playoffs, top 10 on both sides of the ball with one of the most accomplished and undeniable playoff performers in the history of the sport. So good luck with that. Whoever ends up playing against the Clippers, they're going to be really, really good. I do trust the top eight. I am still sold on the Thunder.

And we got a nice little tick-tac-toe thing going here. And for me, Waz, it comes. back to something you said, which is, does a team have confidence in how they play and in the identity that they've forged? And you see the way they play small as a limitation. I see it as a confirmation of who they are and a trust in who they are. They don't deviate from that. And when I'm thinking about the most important criteria for playoff success, one, do you have a strong sense of your own identity? Two, do you have a player who is genuinely unstoppable? And Shay is that in a way that Aunt Edwards is not in a way

that Kauai certainly is, but we have questions about whether Kauai is going to be healthy that make me a little bit nervous too. I hear all the concerns about their youth and their inexperienced, and in fact, I have a little trivia question for you guys. Who do you think on the Thunder has played the most career playoff games?

Is it Davos Bertans? It is Davos Bertans. Fuck, that's insane. 45 playoffs game for Davs Bertans, notable, not in the rotation right now. After that, it's Shea at 13 playoff games. So, yeah, they do not have the rubric.

They do not have the code for how to get through an extended playoff run. They're going to have to figure out a lot on the run. I just like who they are on both sides of the ball in ways that I don't believe in Minnesota's offense. And even with the Clippers, I would say for me, it's OKC Clippers Wolves. That would be my order for these three teams. Yeah, like I said, if all things being equal, I would say the Clippers are above all of these guys, like, the amount of conference championships, finals appearances, like collectively in their main core is insane.

And we watch young teams get outsmarted all the freaking time. Like even think about Sacramento against Golden State, who we all know was a fucking disf- they were a train wreck last year. And they basically got past Sacramento with guile. Right. So we watch young teams be more talented, have their stuff be more put together every single year and just get outsmarted, right?

And that's my blockage with OKC. It's like, they're going to don't smart you in the playoffs. They just will. Like, it's almost like, you know, every year these rookies that we like come into the league and it's like, oh, he's going to come in and have NBA defenses figured out. And it's like, no, that's not how this works.

There's a learning curve. There's a reason why the best teams typically have guys that had to, you know, take these. steps to the top and reach their ultimate success. And so that's why to me, I'm just, I'm going to stay skeptical of okay. See, man, like I love watching what they're doing on a game to game basis. And just the confidence with which they play is really fun to see. But yeah, I'm, I hate youth.

Well, do we split our differences here and put maybe the clippers next? And then we can sort it. And maybe the answer is OKC and Minnesota are like the same percentage, right? All three of these teams are going to be pretty close to one another, I would think. And by the way, it's not as if Minnesota in the last two years in the playoffs have proven to be like, you know, some savants. Right. That hasn't been the case. But again, man, I'm just, I don't know.

I love the talent. I would also say going into the deadline, Thunder, presumably going to be active in some way. you'd imagine them to fill out a rotation spot, maybe get a big in there. Or I don't know if you guys have seen Utah lately, just getting blown off the floor. So maybe the Lori Markin and Derby starts to heat up. It's the jazz keeping as bad as they have been. I doubt it, but we'll see. But we should probably also talk about the other two teams in the east that I think factor in here, the bucks.

Do we want to put percentages on these teams first before we move on to the east? Or do you want to do it all collectively? I think we want to do it collectively, if only because we're kind of overlooking the Bucks and the Sixers in this conversation. Now it's a completely different conversation today, not knowing what Joelle Embed is going to be able to do. And the Sixers, we don't know who's going to be on their team in a week. But the Bucks, I will say, the doc effect almost immediately and not necessarily on the court,

but just work in the room before and after the game before. Photo of him wearing Janus's Greek freak shoes. I was like, okay, this guy. And then afterward, after they lose that game down the stretch against the Nuggets, Doc is complimenting the Murray-Yokic pick and roll, saying how great it is to be able to turn to something like that, as we've talked about at length, would be nice if Jan has set some more screens,

did a little bit more big man, traditional big men stuff in order to kind of iron out that sort of approach here. So maybe not the results on the court so far, but I like what I'm seeing from the Docker. Yeah, I think the thing about the bucks that, you know, obviously when the season started, I was super high on them. This is obviously, again, before I realized that their coach was a complete tire fire and would be fired at some point. Before I knew that to be the case, I was super high on this bunch. I think the problem for them is that they're starting from scratch.

You know, as talented as they are on the very high end, you know, rounding into championship form is not something that happens overnight. Like, they really, they don't have a training camp, right? Like, they don't have all of these built-in advantages that other teams that had these aspirations have. And so, starting from scratch is tough. I want to see the results that Doc can sort of bear out from this group. But yeah, that's why I'm down on them because they're completely ripping this thing from the studs. And, you know, they're going to try to learn on the fly.

It is very tough to do that. and then beat a team as good as Boston. The threshold to come out of the east is going to be super high. But what the Bucks have working in their favor is they don't have this same glut that you have out west. They don't have the wolves and the thunder and the clippers. And that's before you even get to best case scenarios for teams like the Sons, for example, who could be in that mix too if they really click. They really just have to like kind of outlast the Sixers,

beat the Knicks who have been incredible this season, very impressive, are going to give anyone a tough series. but other than that do we feel really confident in any of these other Eastern Conference teams I think the field is just smaller in terms of who Milwaukee has to beat and so there are outcomes where the Celtics don't perform up to expectations

Chris Apzpsoorzingis gets hurt you can see a path from Milwaukee to the finals that's just a little more clear even from where they are now than some of these Western Conference teams and the formula we all kind of believed in going into this season is still there now history would suggest

that this is not going to happen this season at the very least. Like the only thing close to we have to this is Tailu. Tailu was an assistant underneath David Blatt, so he'd been in the system now. Maybe Doc Rivers was part of the team more than they led on. He was apparently a consultant. That probably helps.

But for that reason, I kind of believe in the bucks. And to a certain extent, the Sixers, more than even a Thunder and a Timberwolves. Even the Sixers. Maybe not the Sixers until we know about Joelle. But Joel's been fantastic. Obviously, the playoff record is what it is. I assume Darrell's going to pull several rabbits out of several orifices over the course of now.

Who? Yeah, I don't know. Between now and the deadline. But for that, I mean, I kind of find myself leaning on Star Power and the teams that have the better, easier path. And also the teams that have been there before. To quote my, the great Wazni Lambray, you have to do it in the playoffs for me to believe that you'll do it in the playoffs again. But the crucial part is you got to do it again. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Do it in the playoffs and do it again. And has Joelle and Bede ever done it in the playoffs? Well, second round. Just think about it. Just think about it. If the bugs stick to this number two seed, they basically are going to end up playing either Miami, Orlando, Chicago, Atlanta, or Brooklyn?

That's just like... Well, is Benson is playing or not? All right. That's going to make it even easier to get to the next round. Are we kidding? I forgot to throw them on the bottom of this list. You see those tipouts? I'm just saying just look at that.

Athletic as hell. Just look at that in comparison to playing a Dallas or New Orleans or L.A. in the first round. Like that's, it's just such a different challenge. That's why, like, their percentage has to be higher than those Western Conference teams. Because, like, I could see New Orleans given okay. see a tough time. I could see them giving Minnesota a tough time. Like, I could see, like, all

of those top teams in the West, having a tough goal of it in the first round, maybe even being upset. I'm sorry. The Brooklyn Nets could not beat the fucking bucks in the first round if they played each other. Like, I just no one's actually arguing.

No, I'm just saying, like, when we divide the percentages around, it's just the field is so much clearer in the East. because of what this bottom rung looks like. How do we want to put the Sixers in this mix? Because there are the questions of whether Joelle can play up to an MVP level in consecutive series. There are the questions of whether his body can make it through consecutive series.

Two big questions. They also have like a bunch of other guys they need to get and keep healthy. Like Anthony Melton's been out with a foot injury. Rob Covington's been out with a knee injury. He hasn't played in this calendar year yet. Nick Batum has been healthy but is now out. And I think a lot of their championship case is going to come down to what they do at this deadline, what kind of trade they could swing because they're a team that could get a role player who could really move the needle or a star who could dramatically change things,

but would leave them with a lot to work out between now and the playoffs. So I think this is a second tier. If we want to put the nuggets in the Celtics on the first tier, I think Thunder, Clippers, Wolves, Sixers is probably its own. I would probably say Clippers, bucks, Thunder, Wolves, Sixers. Sixes can't be in there. Sixers are probably clear-cut fifth on this. I think Sixers have about as good,

like maybe almost as good as as the wolves. They have elite talent. They've been very successful on both sides of the ball. They do have young, like a guy like Tyrese maxi does have some growth to show

in terms of his ability to actually read playoff level defenses at the point of attack. It's a very different thing from what he's done in the playoffs where I know he's been good, but a completely different role.

So I want to see some of that. So I think, Minnesota and Philly are at the bottom of that conversation. I think it's fair given the conversation we've had for the clippers and the bucks to be at the top of it. And so then you're looking at probably OKC in the middle. Okay. You good with that? Yeah, I'm good with that.

Like the Joelle thing where he has to overcome, one, how terrible he's been in the playoffs relative to his regular season performance. Obviously, he hasn't been like some scrub in the playoffs. But just compared to what he's done in the regular seasons of those seasons, it's been bad. And, you know, he's typically had some nagging injury at some point in every single playoffs, right? And so those are two big, big things to overcome. Here's my proposal as far as the percentages go. Clippers and bucks, maybe like 10%. Okay.

OKC, maybe 9% for OKC, 8% for Minnesota, 6 or 7% for the Sixers. fittingly. You know, we got to honor the namesake. That sounds fair to me. We could do that. Where would you lean on the Sixers? Do you see them more as a 6% kind of team or a 7% kind of team? How close to Minnesota do you think they are?

I personally think the Clippers and the bucks are their own little mini tier at the top there, then the Thunderwolves, and then the Sixers. So, like, I would almost group them two, two, and then one. Yeah. So that would lean more on the sixth side of things, I would think. Why don't we leave your math the way it is because my head is spinning at this point? I'm sure the listeners is as well. I'm sure everybody's just like, what's happening?

Whatever happened to the pie? We're going to need to, what was the Kevin Durant tweet about, like, why are you talking about charts when we're talking about who? That's kind of what we're doing in here on podcast form. So we're going to need to visualize this at some point, I think. Well, should we talk about the Knicks then? Yeah, I think that leaves us with the Knicks and the Heat and the Suns are kind of the three teams we have left.

And for reference, we have like 8% left if we don't want to adjust any of the other numbers we have. That seems fair. The heat is all pedigree because that shit has not happened on the court. Yep.

Which we would have said the exact same thing last year. I said earlier that the Mavericks were the worst team I was willing to entertain. The heat are actually the worst team. They are 23rd in point differential right now. They have not put it.

it on the court. Jimmy's missed a bunch of games. It's been bad. Three and seven in their last 10. They've lost seven in a row. Like, bro. Like, it's been so freaking bad. Yet, you know, because they're like a goddamn zombie that you can't kill,

I would never just completely write them off. But on the court. This is zero. This is a past zero. This is a negative 33 wind chill. Zero. So we didn't talk about last week when we talked about the Terry Rozier trade. Is that in the big discussion about waiting for a star or going in on this team and just supplementing what they already have, doing so also forces you to do that midstream in the middle of a season where the middle of the Eastern Conference has gotten pretty.

either or. Like it's gotten pretty competitive. And so as we've seen, just trying to work in a new player who needs the ball who hasn't at this point helped a pretty sluggish offense is going to take some time that they might not have. And so that's why they're probably now in seventh place, losers of seven straight. And so for me, I agree with Waz. I think they have to be the bottom of this if we're separating this into its separate team. Giving them any percentage points and any slice this pie, I think is a matter of respect. It's just a respect for culture. That's it. Respect for culture. Respect for the fact that they do

play above their heads in the playoffs. They do show up. But at this point last season, the heat were a top five defense and a solid winning team. The heat are not that right now by any stretch of the imagination. And I'll say this for Terry Rozier, like the heat don't run some, you know, rudimentary

offense. Like, it's pretty intricate stuff that they run. And so, you know, to come in on day one and just have it down pat wouldn't make any sense. But man, whoo. Yeah, this St. Charlotte. It's looked.

It's looked as bad as it's looked in a long time. Well, he has to adjust, and they have to adjust to him, too. Because to your point, Justin, about, like, incorporating a new piece of this age in the season, Ter Rozier isn't a star, but he's a high usage guy. And most importantly, Kyle Lowry was about as low usage as you could get. So the contrast between what has been happening and what is now happening is pretty, intense for Miami system to incorporate. They also have to adjust to a new reality in which the New York Knickerbockers are a goddamn

juggernaut. Winners of eight straight as we're recording this, they lose Julius Randall, doesn't matter. Happens to also coincide with some pretty easy schedule. But there's just something with this team that hasn't been there before. Getting OG in there has just clarified this team in ways that like I never imagined. And all of a sudden, I'm starting to think about them on this. same tier as the Sixers, rather than on the Cavaliers, which I think is the chasm in the Eastern

Conference, at least when it comes to playoffs. I'm trying to get on that level of putting them in the Sixers tier, because there's still some things with them that leave me a little wanting, namely 9 and 16 this season against teams that are over 500. Now, OG has completely changed the look and the fortune of the team. There's no doubt about it. They are a fundamentally different group now than they have been. I think they can and should expect to win a playoff series.

Like they should be penciling that in for themselves. The question is what happens to them if and when they make it through. When they hit a team like Boston, who I think they could push in a series. That's not the matchup you won. And I think it's hard for the Knicks to get into the space in the standings where they're not clawing it out with whoever the first seat in the East is going to be in the second round.

And that's probably going to be the Celtics. Yeah, I don't see. them scoring much against the Celtics matchup. But again, it's hard to argue with what they've looked like since the trade, right? And Brunson, he's just playing completely out of his mind. He looks like a star, like a real star, not like, oh, okay, this is a nice player. Oh, it's cute what the Knicks got going on. Like, he makes a difference and actually controls the pace and the tempo of every Nick

game. Damn near. It's kind of crazy to watch. It's just, you know, once you get into the playoffs and as much as we love OG, Julius Randall is still your second option, man. That's the thing. Everyone spent that week arguing about whether Jalen Brunson could be the number one guy in a championship team. That's not the question. The question is, can Julius Randall be the number two guy on a championship team?

A player who has shot 34% for his career in the playoffs. Jesus Christ. And there are some injury caveats to that, but I don't know how you could feel great about Julius Randall being one of your key guys when the chips are up, when the stakes are high. Like that is a, that's where I get nervous about the Knicks. I don't worry about Jillant Brunson. He's going to get buckets against basically anyone they play against. Randall had an interesting part of the season, first half of this season,

where he instantly had a putrid start to the season, right? First month plus really bad. And he changed a little bit where he stopped taking as many threes, started to put his head down, go to the rim. And I was like, oh, Randall's figured it out. Using his arm as a billy club. Yeah. You look now, though, not a goddamn thing is different.

It is probably have more spacing. The guy's always going to be who he's going to be. Sometimes it's shooting there. Most of the time, it probably won't be there. And I actually think this is an interesting litmus test for the Knicks as a whole. I know this isn't what we're doing here with the pie. But if the Knicks survive the next month plus without Randall and don't miss a beat, I think that's a pretty clear sign that, like, this guy is not a clear foundational piece.

And that's not something that we need to be convinced about, but it does feel like the Knicks themselves might have to because they have hung on for goddamn dear life with this guy. I saw the sign. When I opened up my eyes, I saw the sign. It was Julius Randall taking fadeaways, step back, long tools as offense in a playoffs. Like, this is nice stuff in the regular season, but again, like, he's going to be counted upon to score efficiently against really good defenses. I don't. That's just not tenable. We need to...

We need to move us along. So, let's talk about the suns. You want to do more ace of bass? We don't have time for that. I actually don't know another song, do you? Oh, yeah. All that she wants is another lady? Oh, that's a good one.

Or is another baby. We'll clear up the lyrics off, Mike. who's going to mine. So here's going to be a contention point. So I'm glad I'm bringing this up right at the end. I would have the suns probably closer to the bucks than the Knicks. Closer to... Why?

I would... I would agree. Closer to the bucks? Yeah. I would agree that. I would agree with that. It just the star talent, you just can't ignore what Booker and KD can do. Like, you just can't ignore. nor that.

And Brad Beal, to be fair. And Bradley Beal. Like, I definitely think they're closer to the Bucks than the Nix. And, you know, as fragile as what they have is, the top in talent is so insanely overwhelming at times. I definitely agree with that. I think the NICs are obviously a more cohesive bunch. They are more consistent. They, they're ideally.

Identity is more firmly entrenched, but talent, man, I don't think that's even a question. Well, let's talk about the rest of that talent because you got Durant, Booker, and Beal. Don't do this. You do this all the time with the songs. It doesn't matter. It does not matter. I'm just asking you this, Nurkich, Gordon, Grayson Allen. Who else do you trust?

Who else can you rely on? You're just overlooking the next Bill Wennington right there with use of Nurkich. I'm not. I'm saying we can count on him. I'm saying can you count on Chibon? Mezzi met to or Drew Eubanks or Josh Akoga Bates job. Like that's what I'm asking. Seven and eight.

Who is stepping up? I trust them to spot minutes to be decent enough to get by. Listen, it works for the nuggets. Get by whom? Works for the nuggets. In a series head up, you would pick the Knicks over the Suns in a seven-game series? Well, that series will literally never happen. I know it would never happen, but just hypothetically speaking, you would put your money

on the Knicks to beat the Sons? I don't trade hypotheticals. Only hypothetical pie. So here we go. Here we go. I'm glad that the sanctity of the title pie is for the I just think they're about at the level of the Nix. Given not only where they are, the high end of who the Sons are is obviously better than

that. It's better than a lot of teams. But they have to prove it. They have to stay healthy. And most importantly, they have to get through all the teams we just got finished talking about in a way that the Nix. don't necessarily. Well, right now they're sixth in the west and they're climbing.

I could very easily see them getting to fifth. Eight and two in their last ten, Rob. It's not too late to get on the bandwagon. Yeah. At the very least, they need to be on the tier with the thunder and the wolves, I think. Oh, my God. I know this throws off your spreadsheet, too. You got to do some quick math.

I don't even care. Burn the spreadsheet. No. The answer is no. Here's what I'll suggest. Yeah. We have the Thunder at 9, the wolves at 8. How about we give the Suns of 7?

Right before the Sixers. Okay. If we do that, then we got to shave some points elsewhere. Because we got the Knicks and the heat left and one remaining percentage point of our pie. So who do you want? Let me run down what we have so far. Yep. And you can tell me who you want to drop at all.

This is an insane exercise. Nuggets, 25%. Celtics, 23%. Yeah. Clippers and bucks at 10. Thunder at nine, wolves at eight, sons at seven, which is ridiculous. Sixers at six. Mavericks at one. Now, we could punt the Mavs out of this and give their percentage to somebody.

Here's what I suggest. We shave off one each from the bucks in thunder. Give two to the Knicks, one to the heat. Because we have three left, right? If we do that? Yes. There we go. That's the pie.

Science, baby. You feel good? You feel satisfied? No. No, I don't. I want more pie, as usual. So just that, I'm going to read this off to you, just so the listeners know what the hell they've been listening to for an hour straight here.

Nuggets at 25%, Celtics at 23%, Clippers at 10, bucks at 9, thunder and wolves, both at 8, suns at 7, 6ers at 6, nicks at 2, heat at 1, Mavs at 1. So we're saying the heat and the Mavs have equal chances to win the title. Not necessarily. We could go 1.5 in 0.5. Yeah. Let's do that. I still think the Nix is too low.

I think they're like a 3 to 4% kind of team right now. I agree with you. But that's the pie. It is what it is. All right. On that note, let's wrap it up here. Thanks to Isaiah Blakely on production. Thank you to Ben Cruz.

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