The Ringer NBA Show - Does the NBA Have a TV Ratings Problem? | Group Chat

Episode Date: December 4, 2019

We take a look at the Rockets protesting their loss to the Spurs (2:00) and discuss the NBA’s plummeting ratings (14:00). Then Jonathan Tjarks joins the show to compare team power ranking tiers (29:30).   Hosts: Chris Ryan and Justin Verrier Guest: Jonathan Tjarks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Coach's challenges are actually good. The Pelicans are more fun without Zion. Basketball is very good. Hello and welcome to the Ringer NBA show. It's group chat and I am joined as I am every Wednesday by Justin Verrier. The Vanessa Kirby, to your Claire Foy. That's right. Oh, hey, wait.

Did you not like my intro? Because we can do it again. Because I guess that's what we're doing now, Houston Rockets. If you just don't like the result, we'll have to just replay the last seven minutes of a game. We start today with one of my favorite topics, which is the Rockets complaining about calls. We got a bunch of stuff today. Charks is coming on. We're going to talk a little bit

about the ratings dip for the NBA's national TV ratings, but I really needed to just talk about this Rockets game from last night. Rockets played the Spurs. Sure.

Lost 135, 133 in overtime. Double overtime? Double O'T. The Lonnie Walker, the fourth game. We could talk about him if you want to. Charks might.

But so that, so for people who don't know, basically, this is, as Ryan Russo said on Twitter, the most Rockets game ever. Harden 4 for 20 from 3 you love to see that

but 24 for 24 from the line because that's what people pay for Westbrook 1 7 for 30 from the field and about 7 and a half minutes left in the game Rockets are up by quite a quite a bit Hardin gets a breakaway dunks it

unlike him dunks it with such force and conviction that the ball basically goes through the net and back up over the rim and it's waived off because it's basically, I guess the ref's reason was like it was some sort of obstruction call on the rim itself. It was basically like self-coldending. Sure.

That was the wrong call. They did not award the field goal. They didn't let Mike Dan Tony challenge it, all of which, very unfair. Lots of things in life are unfair. Sure. But the rockets are protesting this loss to the spurs because after this, the spurs came roaring back behind Lonnie Walker's career high 20. points, including 18 in the fourth quarter.

And they are protesting this game, and they, I guess the upshot is that they are hoping to replay the end of this game from 750 on. I'm sure they'd love to, yeah. From when Hardin scored, quote unquote. Right. This is a disgrace. This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. What do you think about this first before I go off my rant?

I'm just so tired already, like just listening to you, just explain the situation. is, like, do we have to do this? Didn't we just do something with the rockets during the playoffs where we had to like listen to them gripe about these arcane rules that apparently only they understand and have to enforce? Right. Just, no. They're playing the angles, man.

I know. I mean, I guess this is like the glass half full perspective on this is just like, this is how the rockets are successful, that they work the angles, yes. And they like focus on these, uh, the clinchapellas of the draft and these, uh, Daniel Houses of the world, and that's how they filled out this contenders. Just focus on having the flu in the playoffs. How about that? Focus on showing up in a decisive game in the playoffs. Have one meaningful playoff performance. I mean, don't we get the two-minute drill reports or the two-minute reports often from the NBA,

and they pretty much admit to calls that should have been called differently? Yes. And nobody else does this. My question is what happens if this dunk happens in the second quarter. Yeah. So do we just replay most of the game? Right. Like what is, what are we looking for here?

Now, I understand, worse comes to worse, the Rockets were to miss the playoffs by a game. They would look back and be like the year our season was robbed. But do you really think if it comes to that, even if it comes to they miss home field, home court advantage throughout the playoffs because of one game? Are we really going back to a game in early December

where they were still up by like double digits on the spurs after this dunk? and it was only after it when they seemed to get completely out of their heads, I guess, and the Spurs roared back, like, is that what your season is resting on? Like, what are we talking about here?

Yeah, I mean, I guess the... You got jobs by the refs. Everybody gets jobbed by the reps. The idea that we're going to somehow automate this feeling and somehow make these things more fair or make this, like, it's only for the players and the coaches that this matters. Nobody watching cares about this shit.

No. No, no, I guess the decision. distinction they're trying to make is that a lot of these calls tend to be subjective. Like that is what we're arguing over, a ref who made a call based on what he saw on the floor. Whereas this objectively, according to them, should have been called a certain way and was not. Absolutely. The Saints objectively should have gone to the Super Bowl, too. Like, it hurts.

Right. It hurts. Yeah. And so we are caught in the situation where they are correct, but who cares? Yes. That is literally it. Yes. That is literally.

And part of it is. I think the relationship that most non-Rockets fans have to the Rockets in terms of when you're watching them, you're watching a team that knows that part of their advantage is that they're a good foul shooting team and they're trying to the line as much as possible because that's free points for them. And respect. You know what I mean? Like, I actually have come to grudgingly respect this team.

I like Darrell. I like Hardin is obviously one of the like five great offensive players who's ever picked up a basketball. It's definitely like beyond reproach. But this is why people hate you. It's because of shit like this. This is why people don't feel good about watching you. Yeah.

It's because of stuff like this. Yeah, it does feel like the backlash is building once again to Hardin. At least there's like simmering like evidence that people are getting a little bit more miffed with his style of play as they do every year. Yeah. I often wonder though, as I was thinking about this the other day, if our biggest concern with Hardin is we just don't like him. Like, he's just not a superstar. And I think this trickles down to your point about the Rockets in general. It's just they're just not very likable.

And maybe that's like, maybe that's a bubble thing. Maybe you and I are infecting each other and we're not, you know, we're not giving him his fair due. Like, I don't think that the praise Hardin gets is commensurate to say the peaks of like, even Westbrook fandom, like three or four years ago. It was a much more emotional, passionate connection, whereas I think that largely, if you're not a Rockets fan, your appreciation of Hardin is mostly analytical. Right. Yes. You appreciate him. You don't love him. Yes. Yeah. So that's our thing on the Rockets. You guys, take the hell of the dignity. Sure. Let Lonnie Walker have his career night. The spurs are not going to be a thorn on your side later.

Yeah, let Lonnie live. Although, I will say, one of you and I have been chatting about this. a little bit about it's not quite Ewing theory because it's not like in every case it's a star goes down and the team does better but I will note that Lamarcus did not play last night and it's another example of a couple

we've had a couple of examples this season of teams seemingly like finding an identity when missing a key piece and that's obviously found their footing in the absence of Kyrie Dinwiddy kind of came you know came back to life there's a couple of other cases of this

happening this season. Yeah, the Bucks lost Middleton. They haven't missed them. The Celtics obviously lost Kyrie and they haven't felt that. And they've missed Hayward. They lost Hayward and they're still playing fine. I'm sure. Yeah. The Mavs haven't really had Christopps Przingis and they've been fine.

Yes. No, but I think my suspicion is just that now that we're in the big two era of the NBA there's just, it's easier perhaps to fill in the gaps because you probably spread out your resources to the rest of your roster. Or maybe teams are just getting better at filling out those roster.

The Rockets a prime example of that. And as you mentioned, the Nets, who pretty much found Spencer Didwini out of a kind of purgatory there. They took a chance on them. Yeah. And so maybe that's the case. It does feel like there are a lot of teams that are able to – or maybe they've, like, figured out the regular season ways that they haven't in years past. We have – there's, like, as far as other news goes, you know, the Zion injury watch is kind of heating up a little bit.

we are into the six-week mark of the 68 weeks he was supposed to miss. And it sounds like New Orleans is being very protective of him, as they should be. But, you know, I mean, with Zion, it's like you're getting into when is this guy going to play and how durable is he going to be. Yeah, it seems like they're taking the right approach. Like, you don't want to rush this thing back. Yeah. I think the worry is just that our big worry about Zion in the broad sense is just how

injured is he going to be throughout his career and now getting another set. back only feeds into that kind of paranoia. Right. Right. So I don't know. It is a bummer. It's a new medical staff in New Orleans, though, so it's not like the same old Anthony Davis.

And yet, they still are having tons of injury problems. It's pretty much every player on the roster, as Andrew Lopez on ESPN pointed out in his news or the other day, it's just, I think there are only four players that haven't missed the game at this point. And so it's pretty widespread. And I don't think you could attribute it to any sort of medical staff or anything like that. but it does feel like this organization is perhaps just cursed.

Is it like literally like these guys aren't eating enough salads down there? It could be. That's what happened to me. I look back and I'm like, damn, I was, I lost to live. Seriously, like, what was your like daily food intake with, like on a Wednesday when you were living there? I definitely went to a coffee shop called High Volt in which I ate way too many muffins and perhaps like a quinoa bowl. Okay. And that was like my safe haven.

That was when you were being good to your side. self. Yeah. And that's like I was trying to take a play off, right? Right. I definitely tried to do the blue apron thing in order to like import vegetables into my life. And not eat fried oyster poboys.

Right. But the problem was because it takes so long to get to you by the time that all the vegetables get there, they're just like not the best because they're probably full of all these preservatives. But yeah, I mean, like you're eating a lot of shit. There was a Wendy's on St. Charles that I used to hit coming back from the smoothie king? Yeah, from the smoothie king arena.

every night because it was open. Wow. Yeah, it wasn't great. Okay. Well, maybe that has something to do with Zion. Maybe not. I mean, I guess you do worry. There's definitely fake news reporting.

I guess you do worry about him like getting too overweight. Yeah, and I think it was almost in the, you know, juxtaposed with AD playing through the flu against Denver and like shutting Yokch down and seeing him kind of like, you know, he's taking his spills with the Lakers like he usually does. Like when AD hits the deck, it's pretty hard. And, you know, he's gone back to the locker room a couple of times, but he seems like he's in good shape. So, yeah, you hope that this will just net out to the Pelicans getting another high draft pick. On the other hand, I think it raises concerns about Alvin Gentry because, like, throughout his tenure, he has been dogged by injuries, including that, like, the season where they were supposed to take off where they fired Monty Williams for him.

Yeah. And he's always had an excuse there. And then all of a sudden, like, the AD stuff happens. and so he really hasn't felt the brunt of just like the ire. Right. I think there have been burbling and there have been times where people are wondering like, well, is this Alvin's time to go? And you'd assume considering the buy-in he has from just the top levels of the organization

because he's been there for a while and is close to Gail Benson, who now runs the organization. And he's worked with Griff. And he's worked with Griff in Phoenix. And so you'd think that there would be a rapport there. But, I mean, you look at what's happening on the floor there. and there's enough there without Zion to still be competitive and to not just crater

in the way that they have recently. Yeah, I mean, if they were in the East, who knows, though? You know what I mean? I feel like if that team's in the Eastern Conference, they're way closer to, like, the sixth seed right now or the seven seed than they are, like,

where they are in the West. All right, let's talk about our deeply held personal beliefs because this week we have an interesting story from SBJ from the Sports Business Journal, John Auren, who reported that. National television viewership for the NBA is down. So NBA on TNT viewership is down 22%. NBA on ESPN is down 19%.

Some local regional sports networks are doing well. And overall, in some locations. So like Atlanta and Orlando, I think, for instance, we're doing better than they had year over year. I saw the Sixers released some stats yesterday that were like, you know, their pregame and post game are as high as they've ever been in terms of viewership

and that stands to reason there was a lot of buildup, I think, to the Sixers season. So there's a lot of interest and the Eagles are not good. So there's plenty of attention there. But for the most part, viewership is down.

So like, why is this happening? And I guess my deeply held personal belief is this is a big deal. Even if we do know why this is happening and Mark Cuban has some pretty salient points about it, which is essentially NBA national games are on cable.

They're on TNT and ESPN. NFL national games are on Fox and NBC, you know, and CBS for the most part. And then you've got ESPN for Monday of football. But for the most part, you can find those national games on your broadcast, on just plug a TV in, you get football. If cable subs are down,

ratings are going to be down. I don't know if cable subs are down so much that NBA on TNT viewership should be at 22% below where it should be. Right. Yeah, I'm instantly skeptical that, like, a lot of people just have knob and tube TVs still. Yes. But, you know, this is, there's a lot of different things that play here.

One could be that, you know, there are not a lot of good Eastern East Coast teams, right? Not even, oh, they're, you know, it's like there's a lot of talent in the Western Conference. Like, Washington's bad, the Knicks are bad, the nets aren't as good as we had hoped, and they don't have Durant and they haven't been playing Kyrie. Sixers are good. Celtics are good, but we're not getting a lot of that, like, East Coast pop, right? And then you've got the two best teams in the league are pretty much in L.A. So if you want to watch basketball and you're on the East Coast, your night is pretty

much starting around 10, 10.30, which is, you know, inhibits a lot of people from watching any of the national games. Warriors are basically decimated. So that's a huge growing national fan base that's probably taking the year off at least. So there's a lot of factors going here, but I think it's a big deal. And I, I'm trying to sort of explain why I think it's a big deal. Here's an analogy. Tell me if this makes sense. I feel like the NBA is like Netflix.

It's a great product. Lots of people love it. And it has a real ease of use. Even if you're using League Pass, if you're looking at Twitter, it's not hard to find out something important is happening if you're following along on any given night. But Netflix doesn't really make water cooler shows.

You know, sometimes there have been moments where a show has been released and everybody gets excited about it like stranger things. But for the most part, you might not even know that a new season of something has gone up on Netflix until you actually look at it. MindHunter is one of my favorite shows of the last five years and it was still unclear to me when the second season was coming. So you basically got this content library that's there that you can have a personal relationship with and it's very curated to your tastes.

And I feel like the NBA is a lot like that. If I want to watch Jimmy Butler for a little while on a Wednesday night for some reason, if I wanted to do that, I can do that. And I don't have to necessarily participate in a national TV experience for that. I don't have to get excited because, oh, like, I think even last night, there were a couple of things happening. Like the Rockets, I don't think the Rockets game was on national TV, was it? No. But I watched it. The NFL doesn't have that problem.

Right. The NFL is more like. your Sunday night HBO shows that everybody tunes in at the same time to watch and then the next day they talk about and often they talk about it for a week afterwards specifically referring to stuff like Game of Thrones or Westworld but I think it's even happening with stuff like

Plashman and I think that beyond our ability beyond like whether or not people are canceling their subscriptions to cable and cord cutting I think the NBA has a little bit of an eventization problem. Yes. I think they have a little bit of a problem around making

it so that Luca versus versus LeBron, like what happened over the weekend. I believe that was like on Saturday, right? That Luca versus LeBron matters as much as Deshaun versus Tom Brady did on Sunday night football. When Deshaun and when the Texans and the Patriots play on Sunday night, we have a few days, you know, a bunch of days to anticipate it and then a bunch of days to react to it to think about what we saw. When Luca plays LeBron, Luca also plays Tuesday and Wednesday. And you kind of just are like, if I miss that game, I can catch the next one or the next one or the next. next one. And it's more about the accumulation of Luca performances than any one standout game.

And if that's happening, what's the incentive to make sure you're home? What's the must-see TV aspect of the NBA before the playoffs? So I think this is a big deal. Yeah, I agree. It circles back to the discussion about the schedule. That's one argument people have been making that the schedule is too long, is that it really doesn't create a day for the NBA in the way that football has, both in college in the NFL. Yeah. And so you can't just sit down and just like pick. It's not NBA day.

Yeah. I think also if you're going, I'm worried. I don't know how worried yet, but I am worried and I'm worried specifically because the NBA has almost acknowledged that this eventized issue exists by bringing up the idea of a tournament. They are trying to create a splash in an otherwise dead period of the regular season. And I don't think it's a quintuant. that the two periods they targeted were around Thanksgiving where people are more focused

on football because the whole thing with the NBA is it doesn't technically start in air quotes until Christmas Day. Right. And then later in the season, where teams have traditionally tanked, and we will openly say, like, the results are just completely colored by the fact that a lot of teams are just not trying. Right. For as sacred as we hold 82 game records and, you know, what statistics, like, if somebody

sets a statistical record in a regular season, I think we would have tons of debates if it was like, well, you know, he did that only in 72 games. If he had played 10 more games, what would have happened? But we see teams taking off way more than 10 games at the end of NBA seasons. True. Those records, you can take or leave, you know what I mean? Yeah, and within the tournament proposal they made, the one around Thanksgiving, I believe it would take off a couple of games.

And my suspicion has always been if it works, if they do implement this and everybody is into it, wouldn't they just push that even further? Yeah, I think that there's, dude, there's conversation about bringing it down to 78 games. There's conversations about dropping it down to 72. I don't know what the right number is. I've personally always felt like the NBA season should be two college basketball seasons. That makes it feel fair, I think. And it seems like it's a more natural progression from where you were in college to the pros

is that you do twice as many games, not twice and change. I don't know if that ever is going to fix. though, the idea that their records are going to be close. The season is closer to baseball. It's closer to the sort of the current of a river than it is like a splash or an ocean wave.

You know what I mean? Right. Everything crashes down on a football team on a Sunday and we're like left to think about it for a week. Right. It's a slog. Yeah.

Whereas football, it's almost like a football play where it happens and then you could just go back to what you're doing. Yes. The rest of the week. I think, so yeah, I am worried in that regard, but I'm more on the fence based on the specifics happening in this season.

I think thus far the season has been pretty boring, and it's been pretty boring because the only thing that they've really had going on has been the games. We talked about this yesterday in office. It's just there just hasn't been a lot of drama. It's almost as if there are too many good teams now. and so the hoops head who wants to break down slob plays and really get into the technical aspects of Anthony Davis, LeBron James Pick and Rolls, which we do as well,

they love it right now. Yeah. But the fact that the Lakers aren't fighting in the locker room, if LeBron isn't just calling AD out because he isn't like fitting in, like that is what drives national interest and like our moms looking at like their Yahoo browsers and all of a sudden asking me on the phone, I'm like, hey, what's up with LeBron? Why is he mad at AD?

Right. That's not happening right now. And there hasn't been a guy who's like, trade me. Totally. There's just nobody to trade at this point, not only because we haven't hit the December 15 deadline after everybody signed this off season. Yeah, it just doesn't seem like there's a lot of movement there. I believe it was Bobby Marks on ESPN the other day.

I mean, the point that nobody has made a trade, a single trade, since July. Right. We didn't get anything in preseason. We haven't gotten anything yet. Just even like a challenge trade of, like, like seventh guy on the benches. Like there just hasn't been much to really discuss beyond the basketball. And the sad truth is that like that is not what drives ratings.

It is drama. And the other part of this, it's superstars. And as you alluded to, we don't have a lot of those on the East Coast. And the big issue with Zion not being there is the fact that TNT really doubled down on Zion. On Pelicans games, yeah. Being the guy earlier in the season, I think it was four or five TNT games were Pelicans up to this point. And there just hasn't, he hasn't been there.

It's a lot of Jackson Hayes. Exactly. I think that is an issue and the fact that a lot of the bigger superstars, the bigger celebrities have matriculated to the West Coast. LeBron being the big one, there were, there's evidence to suggest from last season that LeBron going to the West Coast has led to a, like a dip in ratings. And the NBA, I believe Ethan Strauss had this in his piece earlier the season, tried to combat that by limiting.

the number of national games that start at whatever the latest date is. It would be like 10, 1030. Yeah, it was 7.30 tip-offs. Right, for us, yes. And, like, the Warriors are nothing right now. Nobody wants to see the Warriors to the point where the NBA took two December games scheduled for ESPN off the schedule. And that was a colossus in terms of ratings.

Like, that was a dynasty. And as much as we talk about wanting parity, ratings suggest that viewers want dynasties. Yeah, they were also good for atmosphere with them. buildings. They were good for, like, if the Warriors were in town, a lot of Warriors fans in that city would show up and you would get more of an atmosphere, even if it was a little bit bizarre to have Warriors fans outnumbering, I don't know, you know, not Blazers fans, but like

Clippers fans, that would happen, you know? I don't know if that happens now. And it creates natural, like, challenge games. Sure. Where you have the Bucks versus the Warriors. Whereas now it's just, we're still trying to figure out who are the Titans of the league. Yeah. And so it just doesn't have as much zip to it when the clippers play the Rockets.

Yeah, I would be curious to know from our listeners whether or not it feels like the Lamar Jackson Ravens thing. It seems so much more of a significant story than the Luca Donchage Mavericks thing, which isn't to say that there's, I mean, like, I watch Luca every chance I get. The Mavericks are an really interesting story this season. They seem to be taking every challenge and passing it. All that stuff is true. It's also very early in the season. I get it.

Football is still happening. People are probably still really, you know, thinking about the Cowboys more than they are about the Mavs. But it does feel like it's more difficult to make the case as to why you need to take time out of your week to watch Luca than it is to watch Lomar Jackson. I don't have any like that. It just feels that way.

I'm not saying like I have like a stat that proves that. I would also say I think there's an open question whether or not Janus and Luca perhaps. perhaps the two of the biggest guys on the rise right now, especially amongst the younger crew, are the next frontier of NBA faces of the league. I think I haven't seen the data to suggest that they can carry it in the same way that, like, LeBron can.

They're just not celebrities. And so I do wonder, I mean, Kevin O'Connor wrote about this for us last week. The changing face of the league stuff, yeah. Yeah, and also just on the same day that Luca had a monster performance in a matinee against the rockets, the Cowboys were playing the Patriots, and that game was, I believe, like, one of the most watched games in NFL, like, recent history since I think it was like 2007. Now, the Cowboys are a rare case, but I think that's what you're up against in certain markets. Yeah, absolutely.

All right. Well, that's what we got for the ratings talk. We're going to bring in Charks. We're going to talk a little bit about the tiers. We're going to rank the NBA in tiers today on the pod. So let's call Jonathan Charks, and we'll be right back. Today's episode of the Ringer NBA show, group chat, is brought to you by the Google Assistant. The Google Assistant is ready to help you get more done with just your voice in the car at home and everywhere you take your phone.

Hey Google, how many points per game does JJ Redick average? Here's what I've got for JJ Reddick, an all-time average of 12.9 points per game. A little help, hands free. Just say, hey, Google to get started. Today's show is also brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, now available in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West. Virginia and Indiana. Fandall Sportsbook wants to know what you'd bet if you knew you couldn't lose. Beryor, what would you bet if you knew you couldn't lose? What about Zion for Rookie of the Year?

Ooh. He hasn't played yet, but if he gets back by late December? What if he comes to? He just blows our minds. Yeah, because John Moran isn't necessarily running away with Rookie of the Year. I think he's like the favorite. Where's my Kobe White bet at? It's up there?

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And be sure to use promo code Ringer MBA so they know we sent you. That's promo code Ringer MBA to get your first bet risk-free on Fandul sports book. And now the legal stuff, you must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana, or West Virginia, applies to first wager only. First wager must be placed within seven days of sign up. Max refund $500 refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit and expires 14 days after receipt. Terms apply. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or in West Virginia. Visit www.1-800 gambler.net or in Indiana, call 1-8009 with it. All right, we're joined by Jonathan Charks now. Charks, what's up, man?

Hey, man. How you doing? Good. I want to get into Tiers and the NBA Power Ranking through Tiers here, but I wanted to see if you had any sage takes on the ratings situation with the NBA. What's the view from Texas? Well, I don't know if they're sage, but I always have takes. I mean, for me, like, what was the, one of the big stories here has been load management. And I feel like what do we always say with Trump now? Like, it's saying the quiet part out loud.

This is twice in a row for you, Charks. That he's referenced Trump or that part or the light, saying the quiet part loud. Definitely the Trump part. Well, I do live in Texas. So I know. It's the world I live in. But I mean, like, I think we've always known the season's too long that the games in November and December don't really matter. But now players are actively saying it, right?

Like, now we're seeing it straight up. I want to play tonight. Seasons too long. And if the players know it, the fans know it too. I mean, most of my friends don't even watch games until Christmas anyways. So I think it's only making it more explicit. We already don't the whole time. Why don't they watch games?

Is it because they're more into college football and pro football? Yeah, it's football season. And the other season's like eight months. Right, right. Okay, well, let's get into the tiers anyway. While everybody else is skipping November and December basketball, we can't get enough of it. I found this exercise to be pretty fun. So we're basically taking all of the NBA teams and we're putting

them into one of seven categories as devised by Justin Verrier and Zach Kramm. Should we give Kramm credit here? Yeah, he built the Google spreadsheet, which is like 90% of this actually. It took us like two hours. Barrier always take credit. Yeah. Come on. That's true. So Justin and Zach were kind of working on like how to break this down into different tiers. We came up with favorites, contenders, playoff locks on the bubble,

wish they were on the playoff bubble, which I guess is a bad team that you wish was better. Bad but not hopeless. and this is bleak. And we should mention that on Friday we're going to do this as a staff. Yes. And so these are just our... It's almost a sneak preview

of some of the great basketball. Way to build excitement here. Right. Coming soon, on the ringer. We should sell this for like an insider subscription. That's right. It's behind the paywall.

Nothing's behind the paywall. Let's start with favorites. I think that's best. Charks. Is this a group of three? To me, yeah. To me, like in terms of favorites, it's Clippers, Lakers, Bucks.

And the big story to me, I think, among that is that Philly really hasn't separated themselves from the other Eastern top teams. Like, to me, it feels like it's Milwaukee won and other East teams in a big group. Whereas before this season, kind of like it was Milwaukee won Philly, too, then the group of the rest of the East.

Right. So there's not any separation there. I mean, there's a lot of separation between Milwaukee and the rest of the Eastern Conference for you. Yeah, I mean, the Milwaukee's been killing it all year, and even without Middleton for a lot of these games. Right. Yeah.

For me, I think what's interesting about doing this exercise now as opposed to to start the season is I feel like I still haven't like lost sight of the bigger picture. And so the Clipper is a team record wise that just isn't on the same level as the Bucks and the Lakers. I have the same trio in this first tier. But the Clippers, I just, I look at them and see what they could do in the playoffs. And I'm still applying that to this. I wonder if we were to do this two or three more times and I might be more influenced. by recent results. Yeah.

To me, it's almost like, if you're not going to be super consistent, then when I see you at your best, it has to be pretty good. Right. And that's been a little bit

of an issue with Philly is aside from that Miami game, Philly hasn't really like tagged to anyone really badly yet. And obviously, the Sixers were always going to have some growing pains as they got used to each other. It's a brand new team again

for like the fourth time in two years. Sure. But I don't feel like they've ever hit the gear where you're like, oh, that team's a finals team right there. Not this season yet. Yeah, no, they're still very much a mess. Like, I still don't know what to make of them and I especially don't know what to make of them

once they get to the playoffs. And for me, so that's why I have them as a clear cut in the next year. In the contenders. But for favorites, Charks, do you have within that group of three, are you leaning one way or another? I mean, for me, it's the Clippers.

I would put them as Uber favorites. Yeah. Like the way, I think I've already seen enough from them. With Paul George, what he's playing, with Kuwait Kauai played earlier this season, I think to me, like, that's a team that really has almost no real flaws, has two absolute superstars that fit perfectly together, plus Lou and Trez in the side after everything else. I mean, to me, I look at the clippers and I see, like, to me, they're the new warriors. I feel like they're cleared away the best team in the league when they're healthy.

Yeah, I might put the bucks ahead of both of those teams. If only because the buck's path to the finals is just so much clearer, based on the fact that the Lakers and the Clippers, one of them has to take out the other. So you feel like, but what about like just straight up? Aside from the path, do you feel like the Bucks are a superior team to the L.A. teams? No. I think the Clippers are still the frontrunner. Even though the Lakers have completely just dominated competition, and I think last night's win over the Nuggets really was a statement game

because now the schedule is getting harder and everyone expects them to maybe take a step back and all of a sudden they just blew out a team that's also just high up there in the Western Conference standings. But I just think overall the clippers are just so deep. And like, Montrez-Herald has just taken a leap this season and nobody's really talking about it.

He's at the point where I was at a recent game and like he just faced up the big who was guarding him from the perimeter and just took him off the dribble and I was like, what the fuck is this? I think he gets a degree of credit. I don't think we make a big, enough deal about like the extent to which he might be like their Draymond.

You know what I mean? Totally. And how what a great value he was, but also what he means for that team. They don't have anyone like him in reserve. They would have to go to more traditional slower big and Ivakazoubatch. And like what is he going to be next summer on a market where there's just like not a lot of good available players? Like KOC had a piece today on the Raptors and how Fred Van Vleet might get his max, which is like

in the 30 million range, just. because of the dirt of the point guards. I look around and outside of Andre Drummond, like, there really aren't a lot of centers. And if I'm, like, trying to play a more modern style, I might prefer Harold. To say nothing of the fact that he brings an immediate, like, upgrade in terms of on-floor energy to any team in the league pretty much.

Yeah, he sets a tone. Yeah. For sure. Charks. So within this contenders bracket, which is the second bracket down from favorites. So the favorites, we have Clippers, Lakers, books. We're all agreed on that.

I'm going to let you guys pretty much drive this, because I don't think I have that many decisions. agreements here. Contenders, you feel like the Sixers are solidly in that spot. Give me your other contenders, though. I mean, to me, I got in the east, Philly, Boston, Toronto, and Miami, and then in the west, Houston, and Denver. I mean, to me, really, the middle of the east is the story of the season. Like, some of him's kind of risen up. Yeah, I have some of the similar teams, but I made more of a distinction between contenders and playoff locks. I made my contenders the teams that I think have a realistic shot.

If they hit their ceiling, their ceiling could be the finals. Right, exactly. So I have Sixers, Celtics, Raptors, and the Rockets. I bump the Mavs and Miami and the Nuggets down a tier. Only because, like, I think those teams are playing really well, especially the Mavs. I'm just still dubious. You're skeptical. Yeah.

I'm not sure how much, like, lasting power this has. And do you agree with that, Sharks, that Dallas hasn't quite proven to you that they're like a contender team? Yeah, I don't see them playing enough defense really to be in that level yet. And I think they're too Luca reliant. I got to see more from Chris Stapp's for I believe this team could actually win a playoff series right now. Right now it's just one guy.

And if you watch that Clippers' Mavs game like last before Thanksgiving, the Clippers just blitzed Luca constantly and the Mavis didn't have a plan B for it. So the two that we disagree on are the nuggets and the heat. What makes you think that they're contenders as opposed to just locks? I guess to me, I look at it more like, I don't see Houston as being much better than Denver. I mean, I feel like both two of those teams probably couldn't beat the Clippers. But if it's a Nuggets Rocket Series, I'm not saying Houston as like clear-cut superior, especially the way Denver beat them a couple weeks ago.

That's interesting. And the same with Miami. Like, I think Miami could probably be Toronto or Boston at terms of matchups with these other contenders. Yeah, and Miami took it to the Raptors last night. They went to OT. That was a good game. Yeah. Double OTA, I think.

No, it was one. That was like a weird bad see. Yeah, he really disappeared down the stretch and that like just raises questions about like how far along is Siakum. So yeah, the heat are are an interesting one to me. They have been playing well. But again, I look at what they have and it's a lot of like just dominating by committee where it's like Jimmy and all these other like this deep bench of guys and Goran Drogich like last night was the victory over the raptors is probably the blueprint for them. Yeah. It's like they get contributions from all these different players.

But at the end of the game, it's the Jimmy show, which is what that was the. advertisement for Jimmy and Philly, which was like all these other guys can do their thing for the first three and a half quarters and then the last six, seven minutes, it's going to be Butler. Yeah, and maybe that's the difference between a heat and the rockets. Or sixers, yeah. Excuse me, the heat and the Raptors, just because the Raptors are also playing well and exceeding expectations, but like they have Siakam, a guy who's still improving and like, yeah,

he played well most of the time in the playoffs, but like there were times where he disappeared and like his shot wasn't falling and all of a sudden you're just like, well, we kind of need that. Whereas Jimmy is proven and like he'll take a couple of shots that he probably shouldn't, but he was like a deciding factor in a lot of those series for the Sixers. Sure. The guy I'm watching from Miami is Justice Winslow. I think he's kind of the X factor for this team because they were kind of playing all without him. And it was just Jimmy and shooters.

But that team is like Jimmy, hero, none. It's probably not big enough in the perimeter. If they're going to find a way to make Jimmy and Winslow click, because both those guys want the ball, both aren't great shooters. But both are these huge, massive defensive wings. And as you can get both those two guys going at the same time, which I'm not sure you can give them the lack of spacing, but if those two guys can play well,

I think that gives me a chance going to a lot of series. It has a little bit of Clippers East vibes. If they can get Jimmy and Justice going at the same time, that's like a really hard perimeter to unlock, like he's saying. Yeah, and I also wonder, like, are the nuggets and the heat, the two teams you would watch the most going into the trade deadline, aren't they the ones that have perhaps the biggest packages

in order to swing something. Like, we're still waiting for a Chris Paul trade. We're still waiting for Kevin Love. Are these guys enough to swing one of those teams toward a, like, a different tier? I don't know. Or does somebody go for like a home run Bradley Beal trade? Sure.

Or I guess he can't get traded this season. That's right. No, I think the other guy is Aguadala too. He's probably the other guy. I'll get with it somewhere. But everybody thinks that Iguodala is bound for an L.A. team, right? If he gets bought out.

If he gets bought out, yeah. Okay. If he gets traded, then all of a sudden, a lot of these other teams in play. Is that Dallas or is that, yeah. Him on Dallas would be really interesting. Yeah. Okay.

Let's talk a little bit about the teams on the bubble. Charks, who do you have for the On the Bubble teams? Well, I guess this is not a bubble team, but I think this is the one team that can make a move still, and that's Indiana. I watched the game against Philly last week. I was very impressed with a non-Oad Depot roster. If he comes back in January and plays well,

they've got a pretty loaded team, I feel like. Yeah, this next tier is interesting. They're kind of, in a lot of ways, the teams of like this early like starting like do you have the Pacers as a lock or on the bubble i have to me they're a lock yeah yeah this next tier i have which is the playoff locks i have Utah Dallas and the Pacers gotcha those teams have to me been kind of the surprises in one way or another of the season so like the jazz have disappointed the Mavs and the Pacers have overseeded uh over exceeded expectations yeah and i wonder like turks mentioned like are the Pacers not set up to like really make a run here

they have and they also could make a trade because they have these bigs just like they have subonis and turner are like the guys like they can only go with one probably right and it does seem like they're leaning sub bonus he's a big part of what they're doing and and turner has just become a little bit more ancillary he's become more of just like a stretch big who's who's there to space the floor he's shooting threes this year though he is shooting three and five a game now yeah but he's just like he's just not as much of a offensive focal point as I think he has been or like perhaps I expected just because like if you have sub bonus rolling like where is Turner going to be at the court, right?

Spotting up, yeah. Yeah. Okay, so who do you guys have on the bubble? I mean, to me, the bubble's really big. I think in the east and the west, you have probably six teams that are pretty safe. And then after that, I mean, the west, the west, you've got like Phoenix. They started out fast. They've come back to Earth.

You have Portland, the mellow blazers playing a little better. You've got the wolves started out fast. It's kind of like teams have started out fast and teams are kind of catching up. Then you have Sacramento, Oklahoma City. I feel like those last two spots will be open all year. Same in the east. It's completely wide open in that spot. Yeah, I chopped mine up a little bit between on the playoff bubble and wish they were on the

playoff bubble just because I think I added a little bit more just subjectivity about like teams that I just don't expect to be there in the end run. And like the Spurs are a perfect example of that where I think they're on the wish they were on the playoff bubble despite their miraculous win last night. Yeah. As we talked about up top. But I'm on the playoff bubble. mine is a bit shorter.

I have the Blazers, Nets, magic, sons, and wolves. And those are just teams that I expect to be there throughout the season, whereas, like, I don't know, the Hornets are technically in the playoff race. The Pistons are technically in the playoff race, but they're just, like, so morose to me

that, like, I just, like, can't reward them for that. Yeah, it's like, they're going to probably, like, probably are going to make the playoffs. But, like, I just can't talk about them. Yeah, and, like, the Kings, another team that is basically in there. this, but I think they have to go through another just like they need to shift what they're doing once Fox and Bagley start to get in there, which opens up questions. So trucks, how do you feel

about the Kings specifically? Do you think that what they've done more recently is legit or they're the team that started the season? So I've actually working on a Kings piece for tomorrow about Bagley. And they've been pretty good the last week. I've watched some of their games. So what they've been doing, they've been playing Harrison Barnes at the Four a lot with Bogdanovich Heels. and then Rishon Holmes at the five, and they're guarding really well, they're spaced on the floor. But the question is, like,

what you've been talking about, when Bagley come back, what's his role, when Fox comes back, how does everybody else adjust? Because this team how they're playing now is playing pretty well. Yeah, that kind of playoff race

at the bottom of the West is really interesting because they almost all have the same problem where it's like they have been better because there are more adults in the room, the Kings and Sun specifically and the Kings because of the injuries, as you mentioned.

And to a certain extent, the Timberwolves, but they're still, like, working in guys like Joshua Kogi and Jared Culver. But it's like how much are we going to balance the future versus the present? Like, how much does it matter to make the playoffs? I think a team like the wolves who has Carl Anthony Towns now in an extension, like, it probably doesn't make a ton of difference for them to make the playoffs outside of just like a morale boost. But for like the Kings and the Sons where jobs could be on the line or all of a sudden, like, you still need to pay bug down this summer. you still need to make certain decisions there. I think that matters a little bit more. Yeah, the sons are fascinating.

So the piece of doing is the sons and the Kings, and I wouldn't look at it, really it's been Aaron Baines. He was the key to this whole thing. When he was health, they were good. When he got hurt, they fell off really fast. And Baines is a great defensive player. Yeah, without Baines in most of those games.

He's a great defensive player. And he became like an elite stretch five this year. He shoot in like five feet of game at 45%. So he's like an elite. elite defensive stretch five. It's going to be great when Aaron Baines is the starting center of the All-Star game. Why? Because Anthony Davis doesn't want to play center. Yeah, and they have to trade D'Andre Aiton to make a path for Baines.

Yeah, I don't know. And that's the thing, right? Is when Aiden comes back, how does that work? Right. And that's the tension right there. It's like how much do they prioritize the Longview with Aiton, the guy they drafted above Luca Donchich, just an FYI, versus Aaron Baines. Did that happen, Justin? I think I heard about that.

Yeah, I don't know of that. I made it down to Dallas for you. But, yeah, I mean, Baines has been killing. I also wonder, like, how long, honestly, does the Bain show last? How long does Ricky Rubio's just effect on this team last? Sure. I think to a certain extent, because, again, adults in the room, it's organizing what was a chaotic situation. But, like, how much is that just shooting above their heads?

It's interesting. I would, if we're just saying today, I would say the wolves will make it just because I have, like, faith in towns is just like an MVP candidate. but I don't know. I think it's still very much up in the air. But that leaves that eight spot totally wide open if the wolves are seven. I mean, there's like anyone can make it at that point. Portland maybe, maybe even the Spurs. I don't know. Yeah, Portland, again, another team that can make a trade.

So you wonder if they like, or just like Mello just leads them to the promised land. I can't get over that. Which I guess we should talk about with Oklahoma City. That's a team that could tread Gallinari or Chris Paul and kind of move things around for other teams if they want to keep rebuilding. Right, yeah, that's a good point. That's why I think I put them on the. the lower bubble tier, just because you'd expect them to take a step back, not forward.

So the thing I really wanted to get into here was how you guys make the distinction between bad, not hopeless versus this is bleak. So you guys, I, sharks, you have the hornets, grizzlies, hawks and wizards, and wizards, and bad, but not hopeless, right? Yeah. And then you have the calves, Knicks and Warriors, and this is bleak. Okay, for me, like the calves, this is bleak because their young guards are playing pretty badly. Like Sexton and Garland. And that's bleak because that's your future. Yeah, I guess for me, it just hasn't been as much of a cratering or perhaps it's just

a matter of like a public cratering. Like the Warriors and the Knicks are very much in the spotlight. And we have talked about them being bleak for a very long time. But I also wondered like whether or not the Warriors even belong in the bleak tier because if you're looking at the bigger picture, like they're about to get a lottery pick to join like what was a dynasty. and the great Eric Pashel Right

I forget adding him back to the Yeah I mean they are getting Like they're giving time And reps to these guys That they normally wouldn't And like even DeAngel Russell is like He might come back as recently as like Is tonight I think on Wednesday

And so all of a sudden he gets to be featured And worst case scenario He just like ups his trade value by dropping 50 a night I do kind of wonder whether or not Have we ever seen a team Institutionally take a year off? I mean it's I I don't think I've ever seen this before.

Maybe in any sport where it's like, yeah, like the key players in all of our across the board here are all for whatever reason not playing up to snuff or they're out. So we're just essentially as a team as a franchise taking a year off here. To pull a dolphins. Yeah, exactly. The dolphins actually screwed that up though. Yeah, it is like just targeted tanking. It's where it's like this isn't going to work this year. And so let's just bail as soon as possible.

I kind of respect it. It is for the best. Like, as we said, like, this team with another high-level draft pick is just pretty awesome. Like, I wonder not to think too far ahead, but, like, if no huge moves happen over the summer, let's just assume, aren't the Warriors with, like, a lottery pick just, like, on the same level as the Lakers and Clippers again? Possibly. Possibly, yeah. I mean, I think that the question that got raised by what happened over the offseason is how much of an impact. not the role players that they had had.

You know what I mean? And a one draft pick is not going to change that. So if they have Drey and Clay, Steph. I would think that pick's going to get traded, probably, right? What's that? That pick will probably get traded, I would imagine. Like, did they want a 19-year-old and Steph's, as he's getting older?

They probably want him to win now player, I'd guess. That's true, too. So that becomes a massive trade ship. Yeah, yeah. It could be, I mean, I don't even know who would be able to join the situation, but, like, DeAngelo Russell and the number one pick for Giannis.

Good God. We were saying for for M. B'd, right? That was the idea we were talking about when Chris wasn't here. Right. You guys really? If Philly blows it up. Yeah.

No, I think that's, God, that's such a darkest timeline situation. I didn't even think about that. That they could turn that pick into a win now player and all of a sudden they're like just as good as they were two years ago. I mean,

they're not going to draft Lamello. So like I could see him being moved for sure. I don't know. He seems like a Steve Kerr player. The new Steph? If Steph couldn't shoot. If Steph couldn't shoot.

We can wrap it up there. That's the tiers. We'll have this piece up on Friday. Charks, like he said, is writing about the Kings this week. And we'll be back next Wednesday to talk more NBA. John, thanks for joining us. Yep, have a good one, guys. Basketball is very good.

Basketball is very good.