The Ringer NBA Show - First-Round Playoff Verriables. Plus, Batum Saves the Sixers. | Group Chat

Episode Date: April 18, 2024

Justin, Rob, and Wos start with their reactions to the two Eastern Conference play-in games, first with the Sixers beating the Heat, and then the Bulls beating the Hawks. They also briefly discuss their thoughts on Sixers-Knicks in the first round and how injuries will impact the Heat and Bulls moving forward. Then, they talk about Jontay Porter getting a lifetime ban from the NBA for betting. In the second part of the podcast, they debut a new segment called “The Verriables,” where they answer six questions about the first round of the playoffs, including first-round series predictions (25:32). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producers: Isaiah Blakely, Chia Hao Tat, and Victoria Valencia Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Brian Curtis from The Ringer, and I want to tell you about the Press Box podcast. The Press Box is a podcast for anybody who likes news, whether it's about sports or politics or pop culture, and wants to understand how that news really gets made. We have news shows every Monday and Thursday. We have long interviews with everyone from John Crackauer to Joe Buck. Your social media feeds are bursting with information every day. Let us help you sort it out. Join us.

on the press box. Welcome to this special in-person, two-part, play-in, playoff bonanza edition of group chat. I am Justin Ferrier and standing before me. The beautiful Rob Mahoney. Oh, wow. Yeah. And the world's foremost expert in 20-person pollicules. It is big wise.

What's up? I'm good, man. I feel like Kobe White right now. I'm on fire. So I'm happy to be here, yo. I mean, just the biggest possible night for La Flama Blanca. I think we're all very proud of him. Yes, we are.

We were watching the game in-person, big screen at the Spotify Studios. Rob, you missed it during halftime of the Bulls Hawks game. Was just tweets out a link. No text of the New York Times' article about 20-person pollicules. Yeah, polyamory. Just some light reading for people that were like at halftime, not sure what to do in between, you know, the next start of the playing game. So I was like, hey, some reading material.

If you have a New York Times subscription. It's very considered of you. Yeah. So we recorded earlier today on Wednesday a playoff preview, not just any playoff preview. We debuted the first round edition of the variables. I feel like that's the first time you've pronounced it correctly all day, which is weird, considering it's your name. What was I saying? I thought you earlier, it sounded like you were just saying variables.

But that's the point. But you got to hit the, I'm going to say this very delicately. You got to hit the R harder. Variable. Variables. Variables. See, you're saying it differently. I guess you're the expert.

I don't know what to tell you. 90% of our podcast, are you telling me there's something wrong with the thing that I just made up while watching house hunters at like 10 o'clock at night? Accurate, I would say. Accurate. So stay tuned for that second half of the podcast. If there's different energy, if there's different just like the room sounds differently, that's because we record that earlier in the day. but we stayed together in order to watch these playing games. Someone had to do it for the Eastern Conference.

That's right. First game on the docket, pretty damn good. Yeah. Was, are you going to remember this first game in which the heat lost to the Sixers by one point? One of three options I'm going to give you. Is it the Bricking for Chicken game? Is it the big Dick Nick game? Or is it that Jimmy might have screwed up his MCL game?

I would say it's the well-endowed Nick game. For sure, just because it's just so unexpected and so timely. Every single shot, it felt like it was either ending a Miami Heat run or just coming at the most, like, important time of the game for Philly. And so Batum, for me, just like him turning back the clock. Like, honestly, when I think of Baton, I feel like he was one of the first people to get a terrible deal out of the new TV deal. I mean, terrible for his team, great for him and his family.

Yes, inflated, perhaps. Yeah, inflated deal. But, like, man, this late in his career, like, being, like, just a savvy, reliable vet. And, like, that cliche, he's actually embodying, embodying it for the Sixers. That was dope to see. Yeah, and he got tired of doing the subtle veteran stuff and just decided to be their leading score for a long stretch of this game. But I think there's a whole generation of NBA fans who will remember where they were when Nick Baton went for 20 points in the playing game. It's a momentous occasion.

20 points, six for 10 from three, five rebounds. they needed it because Joelle and Bede and I guess we'll talk about it later, Jimmy Butler, was a real gimp off for the most of this. Jimmy, I mean, at least Joel turned it on in the fourth quarter. He really did some nice orchestration, hit some threes from the top of the perimeter. But like, he did not look right for most of this game. And all of the gimping makes it hard to know what the actual takeaway is. Like there's what we'll remember, but as far as what we're going to take going forward,

you know, like Joel was a statue for a long part of this game. And then all of a sudden in the fourth quarter, he really came alive and had to some huge plays that the Sixers desperately needed. The heat zone was very effective until suddenly it wasn't. And I don't know that it wasn't because the Sixers cracked the code per se. They played better. Joel was reading a little bit better. Their spacing was a little bit better.

But ultimately just kind of wore out its welcome as far as that strategy goes. And I think Philly's ball movement was pretty much a train wreck for the first half of this game and did get a little bit better, but not so great that you would feel super optimistic about their chances if this is a if this is the version of Joel that they're going to get. this Joelle, who can't even get out to the three-point line to contest things, who cannot finish layups over Kevin Love, that player is not going as far as in the second half of this podcast, I will suggest that the Sixers might be able to go.

Yeah, it's funny, man, watching Joel in that game because so many of his demons, his playoff demons from the past poked its ugly head, especially when Philly couldn't figure out the zone defense. At first, Joel is so famously been a horrible, like, passer, just passing out of double teams, finding the open guy, finding the soft spots of just your run-of-the-mill playoff defenses. But in the second half, you kind of saw, like, Joel's actually much improved in that area over the years. And he was making some fantastic reads.

There was, you know, there was an end one to Kelly Ubre at the end. Maybe the most important play of the game. Right. I think in years past three years ago, he doesn't make that read, doesn't make that play. where he manipulates the defense with his eyes and he passes Kelly Ubrey open. I mean, it's like all of the things of Joel showed themselves. Like, he's injured.

He has a terrible first half. But then, you know, he showed his actual improvement. He is a much better player than he was in, say, 2019 when they lost to the Raptors in the second round at the buzzer in Game 7. So it's just an interesting Joel game. And so much of the echoes of his entire career just showed themselves today.

He's all those things, and he's 23, 15, and 5. Yep. Right. Didn't have a good game, but manages to fill up the box score every time. It definitely helped that Tyler Hero did a lot.

This was a self-destructive amount of Tyler Hero. 27 shots in this game, and now Jimmy got hobbled in what was it, the first quarter, I believe. I think Kelly Ubrae seemed like he stepped on him when they were going down. It was really hard to see what happened,

but it turns out Shams reported after the fact it might be an MCL injury. I feel like we're getting all sorts of flashbacks, Deja Bhuta, last postseason. We had the Lakers last night. We had the Kings and Warriors last night. And then now Jimmy getting hurt yet again, his team having to go on without him.

I mean, he played, but they did have to work around him for the most part. He technically played. He was in the corner a lot while Tyler Hero just dribbled the air of the ball. On the one hand, like, Hero's going to take his shots. On the other hand, I couldn't help but think, like, you know, this is why you go out and try to get Dame because when Jimmy isn't activated, isn't healthy and going. it'd be nice to turn to another superstar.

Hero really had to play the part and he was not up for it. Well, and they did go out and get Terry Rozier, but he couldn't play in this game because of a neck injury. So then Jaime Hockes is bringing the ball up the core. They're trying to do everything they can just to get people who can dribble on the floor. But the real kind of vacuum in this game as far as that goes is, what was Bamadabio doing? He just wasn't even given opportunities to create and given Joel's a lot of length,

even if relatively stationary, to try to score over. but I would have loved to see him even get the chance to try a little more relative to some of these shots we got from Tyler Hero. Yeah, that's been a ban complaint going back to about three playoffs now is that he's not aggressive enough hunting his shots. I thought there was moments in last year's playoffs against Boston, even sometimes against Denver, where he did hunt his shot and he looked pretty good. And this regular season, too.

I thought that was an area of growth. Yeah. But clearly there's some stuttering improvement there. Yeah, because last year when he was doing it, he was hunting like 16 foot jump shots, right? I think what people want to see him do is attack the paint, get to the free throw line, put some pressure on the defense. So like even if he's hitting his 16 footers,

I don't think a defense is going to react and open up stuff for his teammates because of it. I think he's got to try to get people in the foul trouble. Just be more aggressive. I hate saying that because that's what every single freaking player says in a sideline interview and coach. But like it's true for bam. I just think not having Rozier, Jimmy being hobbled, which on that play, he pump fakes Kelly Ubre,

somehow gets kneed on the side of his own right knee, gives out an audible scream. If you were watching it live, you heard him just scream. And he managed to finish the game, but he looked hobbled. He looked limited. The heater hurt. I mean, they scared the bejesis. They did everything but win that Philadelphia game. But, man, yeah, they look like they're just, you know, missed the potato head right now.

Yeah, it's just hard. I think that's why there's no big narrative takeaway for me. It was so tight. Honestly, I thought the supporting guys on both sides all had their moments. Like, Jaime Hague's had some great moments. Kyle Lowry proved it really essential at certain points. Maybe the only exception to this being Tobias Harris, who I think might be evicted from his home.

Dude. And banished from the city of Philadelphia as soon as possible. Got benched. Oh, my God. And booed relentlessly. He played horrendously. There's no way around it. Break three on the right side where he's,

He's essentially wide open and he gets a catch and shoot, beautiful, clean look that he's, you know, a guy getting paid $8 million a year should be able to make. Yep. And he just completely clanks it. Yeah, that's tough. So I want to talk about the heat a little later when we talk about our second playing game, but I do want to flash ahead a little bit here. Sixers and Knicks are on deck now. How are you guys feeling? I was also pretty optimistic in the past slash future podcast that you're about to listen to.

about the Sixers going against the Knicks. I do not feel the same right now. Was, how do you feel? I think it's going to be a tough series because the Knicks themselves are also hobbled. But the Sixers, like, Joel just doesn't look like an all-star player. And over the course of a series, that statue routine that he was doing, I think better teams, better coaching. I should not like, Spow was a bad coach. I shouldn't say that.

But it's like over the course of a game, it's hard to account. for, oh, Joelle is like completely not himself. Over the course of a long series, that weakness will be exploited, I think. But at the same time, like, I don't think the Knicks are some, like, juggernaut either, even as a two-seed. So I foresee that being a very long series,

but by no means do I think Philadelphia because they have the more, you know, star-studded talent that they're automatically eschewing to make it into the next round at all. Well, especially when you think about the mechanisms that are required to slow, down someone like Jalen Brunson. You want to have a big presence as he comes around a screen.

And if Joel isn't going to be able to step up and contain or shuffle around with one of the shiftyest guards in the league. Fish in a barrel from mid-range. That's what I'm worried about. As far as the Sixers defense goes, they're going to have their own advantages. They're going to have things that they can work. You know, leveraging Tyrese maxi, for example, a little more than they were able to do in this game, not having to play against his own defense, which clearly they are not super

comfortable doing. The Knicks are not going to flummox them with that. So it's going to be simpler and more straightforward, but more straightforward in a way that can also be very punishing for them. Well, in a way, I wonder if going up against the heat in this first game was the worst possible thing for them long term, because I wonder if Spow kind of like put the blueprint out? Like, do you think other teams, including the Knicks,

can maybe pack the paint, force everyone else to beat you? And if you do not get a Nick Baton game, then you might have a tough time beat them. Obviously, Tyre's Max, you might be a little bit better. but like outside of maxi like there aren't many options maybe buddy heel gets a little hot lowry offensively was a pretty big like just non-entity i would say he's just kind of there making right plays but he's not going to hurt you too much so like where is that other option going to come from i don't foresee a high scoring series coming out 10 to sixers a lot of 90s yeah there's

there's going to be a lot of clanks a lot of fouls not being called um this was a super physical game, by the way. Sixers. He, uh, refs were letting the boys play tonight. Um, and, and I think you're going to see a repeat of that over the course of that Nick series. So yeah, don't, don't count on a lot of swishes and dishes, as my man,

uh, Clyde would say. I, it's such a, a weird one to unpack because I don't know that you can even crowd the lane against Joelle per se. Because he's doing a lot of damage from the perimeter still, especially when he's not all, I'll let able to like launch off of that knee and attack. At least he wasn't in this game.

And their handoff game has to happen on the perimeter. Has to. Yeah. So, yeah, I thought there was a certain times, like, against the zone because, you know, they got Kev Love in the middle of that zone. And if you're Joe L.A. and you, it's like, I have to attack that, right? Like, I have to post that up.

Yeah. But the heat were doing a good job of fron them and, you know, doubling them up when he was trying to get his post catches. I think, I don't think Tibbs can just turn around and coach that if he hasn't. coached it all the year. The heat, that's part of what they do, this matchup zone that they do. So I just think it's going to be a very hard-fought series on both ends. And again, the idea that the sixers are going to go in there and blow anybody's doors off, I just don't see it, which is what people probably would have predicted with a quote-unquote healthy team coming in. Yeah, if Tips hasn't

been coaching them to run zone quietly all year and that man does not do anything quietly, I just don't see why you would even try it. The one thing that the Knicks defense does have in common, we saw in this game, when Joelle is having trouble reading the zone, Jimmy Butler coming blindside and poking the ball away, that's something that Dante DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, those guys are very intuitive about doing too.

So creating pressure around Joel and then swarming him to attack the handle, attack the drill. That makes sense. I don't think you need to be running zone in order to crowd Joel, to be swiping down constantly in the way that the heat work. But the zone was kind of what slowed down his read.

Yes. I think that's why those. opportunities were there. So you have to create other ways to make him hesitate and then exploit it. It's just easier said than done. I guess the one optimistic view on the Sixers is that hopefully Joel might get steadily more healthy throughout this playoffs. I also don't know what state he's in. He also had that scare a couple games ago. I could think it was against Orlando. So like, yeah, he looked healthier like 10 days ago or two weeks ago when we saw him. So it's, I don't know what the progress is for him. But I think we know he's going to be.

healthier because he's going to be playing for Team USA in the summer. So obviously he's only getting healthier as you get closer to that Team USA Olympic bid. I think everyone feels a little healthier in Paris. It's just one of those things. It's not where of a baguette. Let's flip to the other game of the night. I guess we have to. Bulls Hawks.

Let's just never talk about the Hawks again. Let's just put in a rule for this podcast that until Trey Young actually gets his ass up out of there, We just can't talk about this team because holy shit, they did not deserve to be in that game. They did not. I don't know that they were terribly keen to participate in that game. That's true. They gave up, what, 40 in the first quarter? Yes.

They made it a little bit more competitive. They cut it down to like three at one point. But eventually they just got the doors. Hang a banner. Cut it to three in the playing. I will say, Trey Young, three and O in the playin going into this game. So one of the playin's biggest records, which don't. actually exist.

Yeah. It has now been dissipated. It's going on his Hall of Fame plaid, started his career 3-0 in the bottom bracket of the playing game. You know, the Hawks were a 36-win team. I've talked to a couple of homies like Zach Harper was like, maybe we should make the playing. You got to be 500 to participate.

Oh, yeah. If you're not 500, we're just going to take the eight teams and keep it pushing. The Hawks played like a 36-win team tonight. And, yeah, it was despicable. What can we say about the hall? They definitely guarded Kobe White like a 36 win team would. That's for sure. He got everything he wanted.

He's at an amazing season. I don't mean to take anything away from Kobe White, but the ease with which he cooked every person in front of him, guard and big alike. That's not playing material. That's not playing defense that was better. But we're not going to poo-poo the performance of a guy who I think deserves to win most improved this year.

Absolutely not. He's turned himself into a guy. This off-season did a lot of work with, with Damar de Rosen on footwork and ball handling specifically. His ball handling has gone to a different level. And it just makes his pick and roll execution just a whole other animal. And that's how he was destroying the Hawks today. Like, in pick and roll, they couldn't do anything with him,

whether he was slashing, dishing, pulling up from three. Every now and again, they'd leave the guy wide over for a spot up. It was just an incredible performance by him. It was night and day going from watching Tyler Hero try to bring the ball up the floor to Kobe White, cooking multiple defenders into like a double Euro step layup. Yeah. Just the way he was just slashing. Yeah. Just jumping from one place to a next on a jab step.

Like prime Derek Rose, not vertically, but just like side to side. Like the way he was moving was unbelievable. Career high 42 points. Unfortunately, does not count. So his career high goes back to 37. But he seems like a guy. I think why is hit it on the nail? Like, what kind of guy, I think, is my big question.

I think a very solid starting level point card. A nice guy. A nice guy. Hell yeah. Very nice guy. Very, very nice. Good to have a round, good hang. Maybe a dare I say a Derek White type of starting point guard.

A white guy. A white guy. Yeah, facts. A great white. I have to say, though, the more I watch at the Bulls post-Levin, the more I'm like, okay. not sure that's something, but we're on the road to something. There are young guys playing like Caruso White DeRosen.

Well, Caruso was playing. Caruso was playing. I would be doubtful that he would play in this next game on Friday because of the injury suffered. Why is that? What happened, Justin? Andre Drummond, who stole an Alley Upe from his own teammate last week, stepped on, like, literally was staring this dude right in the first. face as he's running toward him and just stepped on him with his size 23 shoe and now the guy's

foot is sprained. Well, not just stepped on him, but stepped on him and then plowed through him. It's insane. Andre Drummond, you've had a nice season. What are you doing? He's a total oaf, unfortunately. What's crazy is I thought him coming out of high school, he was like Amari Stadamai. Yeah.

Right? And he has just become a total ogre who's just. just like so groundbound. This is a little rude. Again, he's had a good year. No, it's not that. It's like early on his career. He just called him an ogre.

He called him an oaf. He did both. Early in his career, like, there was this hope that he had just like ball handling and had a facility with passing the ball and all of that. They put him in the high post at one point. That was the whole thing. He just hasn't fulfilled that promise. But whatever, we've digressed talking about the,

development of Andre Drummond. But what he hasn't for the most part has been a good vet and had his head screwed on straight. And he knows what he shouldn't do for the most part, although apparently he doesn't know he shouldn't plow through the injury prone guy on his team. And don't steal allelubes. Also don't steal alibes. He might be the heat's biggest

advantage because Alex Caruso, according to Boge, has a significant, in air quotes, left ankle sprain. And his availability is in doubt. So officially doubtful, I guess. Yeah. A real limp to the finish for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

So I thought that the Bulls might at the very least make it competitive. With this news, I am also in doubt about their chances. You like that? That's pretty good. I guess. I'm not. I'm not. I think the heat themselves are banged up enough.

The Bulls showed that like, you know, when they got things clicking, they can be a nice, really frisky team. I think I anticipate that game being super competitive. however, whoever makes it to the next round, limps into the next round, limps into Boston for game one, is going to get their heads caved in quite thoroughly. So that's...

I wish you could see Isaiah behind you right now, just a smile from ear to ear. They are. I don't know how Isaiah could watch the display from the four Eastern Conference teams competing to make it into the real playoffs and the playing today and be like, Yeah, Boston should be quaking in their boots watching that.

I don't know. I detected a certain glee in Isaiah's voice today as we were watching this game, and Trey Young was called for a blocking foul while defending backwards. And Isaiah's like, is guarding someone backwards a take foul? This is the level of basketball that will soon be put in front of the Boston Celtics. If not from the Hawks, then probably from the short-handed bulls who are more competent, for sure, but now more limited.

Like losing their best defender is a huge deal. So you guys like the heat in that one? Do I like the heat without Jimmy Butler against anybody? No. No, I don't. I think the Bulls are going to beat them. Oh, you think they're just going to win straight up? Yeah, the Bulls are going to beat the heat and get that eight seed.

Absolutely. If the heat are going to win to me, it will take a 25 to 30 point BAM game. Like, he's going to have to be much more aggressive. And as we saw in this one, Vouch is very allowing of that when he's on the floor. He gives you certain opportunities of responsibility. But Hicapela was going off. Jaime Hakez, who we love here on this, he's got a. a lot of ink and love on this pod.

He was running point at certain times tonight. He's nobody's point guard. It'd be nice if Rizier came back. Tyler Heroes dribbles like he has other mitts on, guys. He can't be your point guard. He had some nice moves today. Yes. Sometimes the mitts fit just right.

But sometimes they get a little loose. But man, there was some really scary moments at points with him. So it's tough, man. You love positionless basketball. until you need someone to dribble the goddamn basketball. Exactly. There's some of that for sure.

All right, before we transition to the variables, to the much-awaited variables, basically the 24 minutes from when I introduced it to the audience, we have to talk about John T. Porter. News came down earlier today. Band for life. Just the Adam Silver saying that about Sterling just ringing through my head when the news dropped there. It seemed like this is where this is going to be headed, Rob. But what do you think about the decision?

Yeah, if you shave points, you get banned. That's it. It's really that simple. That's it. The guy shaved points. Bet on basketball. Bet on his team to lose. Bet on his team to lose.

Gave his buddies tips to start dummy accounts to bet on his behalf, obviously. We got to get him out of here. Banned for life. Easy call. Only netted $22,000. Waz gets that for one podcast episode. How many establishments have you been banned for life from, Wazz? Ah, banned for life

I've never No, I've never been banned for life I remember I was with my cousin at Century 21 and by the World Trade Center in Manhattan and he got caught stealing a Mosquino t-shirt and they told him never to come back but I don't think that actually lasted

but no, I've never been banned never been banned somehow got to go to MSG with the facial recognition technology wasn't banned I'm here What about you? Oh no I'm a rule follower. Same here.

But look, maybe something we all could manifest in 2024 for ourselves, you know, get kicked out of somewhere, be a little rebellious. I think it'd be nice for us. Okay. We're going to transition now to our playoff preview. Also, if you've been listening to this podcast and you hear any sort of like crying in the background, my dog has just been hanging out while we record this. So if you hear that noise, that is the backdrop to my life and explains why I am the way I am.

So check out the variables. We'll be back. ready to go Sunday have fun we'll see you in the past but also the future all right we're back we're also back in time this is recorded earlier today you don't tell them that

well I think you could tell the difference it's a transparent show yeah we like to be honest with the listeners I like the veil yeah I'm like the Wizard of Was you know you're like Adam Silver perhaps perhaps all right so now we're going to look big picture and look at the

playoffs as a whole obviously we don't know two of the remaining matchups here, but we are going to look at the first round playoff variables. The playoff what now? Variables. And you spell that, V-E-R-R-I-A-B-L-E-S. Let's go. Are you guys excited? Because I'm excited. Are you proud of yourself? I am very proud of myself. All right. This is where they put me on the Chiron barrier, leap. That's your fourth question here. That's true. Isaiah,

should we hit him with the theme song to the variables? Wow. That's right. Man, I like that energy. Yeah, I don't know what energy is that energy? A little mysterious,

a little sexy? Serious, though. It's very serious. Playoff intensity. Yes, exactly. So we're going to go through, I think I have five or six questions down here, but we're targeting

the things that could change one way or another that might dictate this first round, specifically looking at the first round. maybe we'll do a second round version if this isn't a complete catastrophe. Let's start first with the big thing on the docket as we're recording this. Janice's left cap. This is the first, first round playoff variable. And my question was to you is how dire of a situation is this for Milwaukee?

Because obviously, Janus looks like he's not going to be available for maybe the start of the first round series against the Pacers. We talked about before, you know, maybe the Pacers have a shot to upset them. Do you think this changes anything in your mind? Not really. I don't think when you say existentially, that would mean like people asking out, ripping up the team from, you know, from its roots. I don't think that's really on the line here.

If the Bucks want to, and even Yonis himself, they can make a bunch of excuses for why things didn't go well this year. They hired the wrong coach. They got a guy in midstream. A very top-heavy team with a lot of injuries at the top towards the end of the season. When they've had their guys, they've been pretty damn good.

Even any lineup data that you could look up with support that hypothesis or that theory of the buck season. So I don't think is that existential. Even despite guys like Stephen A and the talking heads talking about Dame Lillard not being happy there. You know, from what I heard, he's plenty happy. He's just dealing with like personal life issues. Everybody knows he's going through a divorce and is a brand new city and things that he's talked about openly in public.

But I think the bucks as they stand are pretty fine. on solid ground. I think next year is when things start to get a little testy if things don't start looking right. But the way this year

has unfolded and the unevenness of it, I don't believe that a hiccup in this first round again would be too dire. It's obviously bad to not have

one of the best players in the world. Yeah. It's good in a way because I do think it does give the bucks a lot of cover for what's been

a messy, messy season. Even the stretches that we've been encouraged by how they've played. There have been caveats to that. Even when you look at their roster at its best, there's elements of it that's like, okay, how would these guys hold up in a playoff series? Do they have the requisite depth? Do they have even the fifth starter that's going to be up to playoff snuff? I think Janus being out and potentially that being the cause of losing,

whether against the Pacers or later, it excuses a lot in terms of how a lot of people, even internally, would look at the success of this season. And that means something. It maybe is a foolish way to look at it. But I agree with what Was was saying, and ultimately the takeaway, which is the core of the team, has been very good. And if you think you can trust those guys to be healthy enough in the future, I don't see any reason to revisit the premise here. I think there are two questions here. First and foremost, does this change our outlook for this first round series? Do you guys still think the same thing where it's like probably bucks, but let's see if Janus plays? I think the Pacers are going to win.

Oh, wow. I think the Pacers are going to win. So I think it would have been close and competitive with Janus. And if he's missing potentially two games and soft tissue injuries maybe even more, I'm very nervous about the buck's immediate prospects. So I don't know if I moved from one end to the other so much as I thought it was kind of a coin flip series to begin with. And now I'm definitely leaning Pacers. What about you?

I thought it would be a long series. I still think that I think the Bucks can still manage to steal this thing. If they end up, you know, splitting the first two games and Yonis comes back in either three or four, they could still be on solid foundation. But yeah, I think if this is more of a toss-up or coin flip at this point because if Janus is absent, then I would have had it going into the series before Janus's, you know, leg injury. I tend to agree more with Waz here. I think there is a little bit of a deja vu happening, though.

There are some of the markers from last year with the heat where Janus isn't going to be there. And obviously, this team is way worse without Janus than they were last year even. I think the thing that gives me pause going forward beyond that. I tend to agree with you guys as well. If anything, this team needed a continuity, right? They needed a coach for a full season. They needed Damon Yannis to get on the same page. And they'll have ostensibly maybe another player to throw in the mix here over the off season.

I believe they keep a draft pick via a first round pick swap. So they'll have someone or be able to trade that for somebody else. An exception candidate. Like there's going to be someone they can bring in. And that's, they need guys as much as anything. So even one more role player would be meaningful for them. Yes. The one thing that I'm worried, though, is when Brian Winthorst goes on Get Up and says things like, if they lose another first round series, I'm not sure where Janus is going to be. And maybe that's just idle speculation. Maybe that's informed just based on his thinking.

But I do think last year, it was pretty telling that Janus came out and really put his foot to the bucks his throat in a little bit and being like, get me some help here. Seems like he's very straightforward about his wants and desires. And I do wonder if like, if it is another embarrassing sort of loss, is he going to do the same thing over and over again and maybe make this more of a dire situation? than it looked. If the Bucks hired Adrian Griffin on Janus's basically recommendation traded for Damian Lullard who Janus wanted, I would be shocked

if he took that tact. Well, you can look at it two ways, though. You can look at it as yes, they've done everything he wanted. On the other hand, he's demanded everything and maybe he'll just demand to leave when it didn't meet up to his standards.

I know other stars have done that. I don't think that's how Janus is going to treat this. I don't think that's his plan. And more importantly, he's got five years left on his deal. This is not... So when K.D. gets traded to the Sons after

what basically was 18 months of poison in Brooklyn's locker room, ownership and management, were pretty fed up with the way things were going. They themselves wanted to move KD and K.D. and Kiree

and just move on from all the things that were happening. there. That's not the case in Milwaukee right now. So I think the idea that with five years left on his deal, the bucks are just going to be like yeah, Janice, make our team wholly irrelevant and, you know, useless

for the foreseeable future so that we can trade. Like, I don't see why they opt into that, even just because Janice starts pissing and moaning. I think the next thing happened because ownership was behind a move as well. And I don't see why ownership and management were behind a move

for Janus at this point, this offseason. That doesn't make any sense to me. We're also getting way ahead of ourselves. I know we're going through variable paths here, but even as someone who thinks the Pacers have a good shot to win this series, first let's see how the Bucks do. Then let's see what it looks like.

Because I think there's different kinds of losses, right? There's losses that are wholly discouraging. And there are losses that make it clear that if Janus was healthy or healthier, this would look very different. These are the variables, man. One way or another. I just don't want to get too far down the rabbit hole of Janus asking out based on a reality that we don't know will manifest.

I'm not there. So you wouldn't rebuild the team around Lou Dort, is what you're saying? I would not rebuild the team. Why, Lou? He's sending people to Oklahoma. That's his thing. You know, Lou Dort, Josh Ditty. You know.

Sure. Maybe Isaiah Joe. You know, that would be a sick rebuild. The big three. The new victory in Milwaukee. Yeah. But I'm surprised. You are more bullish on the Pacers than I think we are.

I think I'm down on most of the Eastern Conference right now. Sure. Everyone is very banged up. And like, that's the thing as we talk about the Celtics and their competition. There's not a lot of alternative options out there as you're navigating the East and figuring out who the other contenders could be. I wish Milwaukee had proven enough to make me feel confident in their chances. but they haven't. And the Pacers, if anything,

I think have quietly kind of picked up some steam over the back part of the season. Like their defense is looking a lot better. The rotation is a lot more balanced since they made the trade for Siakum, since they traded away Buddy Healed. Andrew Nemhart has been in that starting lineup. Like, I have visions of, you know,

what we saw of Dame in that final game against the magic, just a horrid shooting display. He's going to be hounded by a really good guard perimeter defender in Nemhard for a lot of that series. And the Pacers aren't an amazing defensive team, but they're good enough to keep the buff without Janus in check. Well, if you hated that off-season look-ahead question.

I did. Well, we're going on to another one. Should we hit the theme for before each one? Before each question? Yeah, just to get in the right state of mind. All right. Maybe a sting? Just like a little tease of it?

I like the whole thing. You want to do that five or six times? Yeah. All right. All right. Variable number two, the looming off season. The playoffs have not even started. Well, I mean, what are,

we're going to do? You want to break down like the benches for the Orlando Magic here? That is literally what I would like to do. You're happy to work that into the flow of this, but I think preview content is kind of... We are setting the stakes. I do think that's important. As we go into the playoffs, these are the teams

that are kind of in a certain sort of jeopardy or facing a certain kind of pressure. That is instructive. Yes. And I also think this is a pressure packed playoffs. Yeah. Because other than the box is my question here, Rob. Who has the most pressure to make it out of the second round. I have six or seven teams listed here. Who do you have at the top of your list?

Out of the second round. Out of the second round. Oh, excuse me. Out of the first, make it to the second round. Okay, okay. Because that's a very different proposition. Just like, wait, you have seven teams that should make the conference finals? The variables regret the era. I see two teams kind of standing above. One of them for me is the Cavs. I think if you are running through the hypothetical early outs and which one would bring about the most significant change. Cleveland is probably at the top of that list. And they're a perfect example of what I was talking about earlier, the kinds of losses. The way they lost last year was so demoralizing and so embarrassing. If that happens again against the magic, people are going to start losing jobs. People are going to start getting traded away.

Donovan Mitchell, as we've discussed many times, maybe not long for Cleveland. But I think that's what makes the calves an interesting candidate is it's not just Donovan Mitchell's future. it's J.B. Bickerstaff's future. It's the Evan Mobley, Jared Allen front court. It's do you need yet another refresh at the three? You know, like, how many things could you possibly change here and how many would you be urged to change based on the outcome of a first round loss for the caps? Did I read you a recent quote from Donovan Mitchell?

Yeah. You're judged by conference finals and finals. That's my mindset. Tough if they don't get it out of the first round. So he would judge himself pretty harshly. I would say so. I think so. His career's been a fucking fair.

If that's the case, I think, yeah, the Donovan Mitchell part is what's most important. It's been widely reported for four years now. Basically, that this guy is trying to get himself to a big market. That's how he sees his career unfolding. Cleveland so clearly is not that. And they haven't had this overwhelming team success that might, you know, tip the balance in their favor. and as far as far as where Donovan Mitchell would ultimately want to end up. So I tend to agree with Rob that this is a very pressure-packed first round because,

one, there's the Donovan Mitchell stuff that mentioned. Two, they're playing the Orlando Magic. Like, they have to see themselves as a better team than this young upstart magic team who has very clearly defined flaws. And you should be able to beat these guys, you know. So I tend to agree with Rob. but you know I have different ideas about who I think has some pressure on them do you want to talk about the Orlando Magic Bench before we go no we'll find room for

them later who's the top of your list it's the it's the it's the Los Angeles Clippers this is the other one yeah yeah because one they got to pay two guys pretty big deals this offseason on top of the one that just gave the Kwa yes Paul George is a huge part of their team I had them as my third team all NBA And he's due for a new contract. And then James Harden essentially came, forced his way to the Clippers because they would pay him. With an understanding. With an understanding.

Another understanding for James Hardin that he would be paid. And so if they can't even get out of the first round against a team that they're evenly matched up with, if not more talented then. And they just flame out, man. and they go into off-season, their new shiny stadium down in Englewood, and they tell their fans, like, we're just doing this again with guys that are worse than they were last year.

Let's, yeah, the wall, let's go. It's like, man, that is pretty dark. I think it could get darker, right? There's darker outcomes, like, you know, Paul George not having his extension. On the one hand, you've got to pay him if you're the clippers. You have to pay him.

What if he doesn't want to be paid by you? Yeah. What if Paul George decides he wants to play somewhere else? And then you're left holding the bag on James Hardin, who might have another disappointing playoff, trying to figure out and navigate Kauai Leonard's injury future and health future, with what's already a prohibitively, at least for most owners, expensive team.

$343 million roster right now before those deals, including the luxury tax. So if that's a first round out, that's a very expensive first round out. Yeah, I almost name. name this the Darry like index because he's looming on practically every single team.

Oh, in terms of chasing after Paul George. Yeah, and Paul George is obviously the one that is already being rumored might be a target for him. He would make a lot of sense next to Embed and Tyrese maxi. I don't know why he would leave one perpetually injured situation

just to go for one that might actually be worse going forward, but we'll see about that. I had them third on my list if only because I think for the clippers, it's more of like a clear-cut decision for them. I think they made their decision by trading for Hardin. You committed to this board

to bringing the three of them together. And if anything, I think the George, like, consternation might be on George's side and also probably a leverage pay just because they did not ultimately give Kauai the full max in terms of years and dollars. I wonder if that is just a sticking point with Paul George,

and he's just holding out in order to get that from the clippers. Possibly so. I just think the pressure to win does affect Paul George's sensibility. Yes. And if anything, then there's kind of the parallel track in the East

where now you have to watch the Sixers. And how do the Sixers look? And maybe the Sixers get all the way to the conference finals, and they bump up against the Tobias Harris ceiling. And Paul George starts looking at that team and saying, maybe I'm the missing piece. Maybe I'm exactly the kind of player that they need. And so if the Clippers underperform and the Sixers do well but not championship well,

that kind of makes the case in itself for a player like him to at least shop around. I had neither of those teams you guys mentioned at one, because you're overlooking the big honking one on the table, which is the Boston Celtics. The Boston Celtics don't get out of the first round. I took that as assumed that the Celtics and the Nuggets need to win. If the Nuggets just lost to the Lakers, I think that having the title will fall back on it, the very least provides a nice little cushion.

Whereas the Celtics, if they don't beat presumably the heat, I probably shouldn't say that because we don't know the results of tonight. Listen, if the Celtics somehow don't make it out the first round of the playoffs, I don't think we'll ever finish that podcast. That would be a five-hour podcast. I'm not available for that podcast. We would have to go person by person. Spend an hour on each Celtic, each coach, each assistant,

each equipment guy, like Janus. No, we're going to make it like 20 minutes in and Bill's going to start pulling plugs back there. It's not going to happen. Yeah, I didn't even consider them. I just don't think that he, or the Sixers are well positioned to beat these guys right now. But, man, that would be quite the story, Isaiah, for sure.

Yeah, Drew Holiday just got a new extension. That is another very, very, very expensive team. $420 million in career earnings for Drew Holiday. I mean, soon to be gold medalist, Drew Holiday. Legend at the bank. He just has the best timing where he just hits free agency every single time the team that he's on has to keep him. Pelicans, bucks, and now the Celtics.

They can't do anything else to replace them, and so he has made a shit ton of money. So, shout out to his agent. Anybody else you guys have on your list here? I have several, so. I think the sons are worthy of Node. Yeah. Suns are definitely on there.

You know? Yeah, new owner, urgency. Weird real estate empire. Lots of money already poured in. Yes. KD just being a weirdo. KD being KD. Also being his age.

Like, they're just aren't. Like, if KD is, he is their most important player, and this is your window, is his window. And after that, you have to start taking some hard looks about what the future of your team would be. So they have to be on the list. I also have Dallas here. Similar cases, the Clippers. You think so? I think, well, I think you guys are a little bit more worried about the Clippers.

I think that one's a little more clear-cut. I think if Luca doesn't make it out of the first round, I think he's going to be mad. I think we'll see the results of that probably next trade deadline or next off-season. But I think that's probably the spark that ultimately leads to him maybe leaving down the road there. So I do think like maybe not as soon as this offseason, but certainly that that's a pressure packed sort of situation. I will say this. I don't, I don't perceive the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the,

the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the do accomplish meaningful team goals right now. However, if you're paying attention to the scuttle butt, there's a lot of chatter around Luca and his maybe desire to move on from these guys. Like, people who would know are saying, man, keep watching that Luca thing. Rob? What are you looking to me for? No, I mean, you're the person that know, am I saying it?

I whispered a lot of things into Wazza's ear. There's it. Hasn't been a lot of Luca. Watch that Deuce McBride's situation was. I think that's really developing over there. That's all I was like, I don't understand why there would be a Luca rush to do something or why Dallas should feel like they've ultimately failed this dude. Sure, they ruined the Brunson thing and a couple of other stuff.

But like, I don't know, you know, but like as far as what you hear from people, like, people keep saying, keep looking out for that Luca situation in Dallas. The reality is if you have Luke on your team, you're always on the clock. It never stops. And I do think the maths have alleviated some of the pressure. And in particular, I would say the pressure that would have been on Jason Kidd if they had stumbled through the back part of the season, had to play their way in or even miss the playoffs entirely.

That would have been a different scenario. They played well enough to get some room, get a little wiggle room here, made the moves they needed to make, won the games they needed to win. But when you have Luca, you have to keep winning. You have to keep improving all the time. And so they have a lot to prove in this postseason. They have a lot to prove going into the offseason to keep making the roster better, to keep making themselves more competitive. And guys like Luca honestly have the right to look around and say, I am one of the best players in the world, and this isn't enough for me in the same way that Janus could do that or any great player could do that with their team. So it's hard to argue that

there's a kind of pressure, I just think maybe a little less existential type pressure. I don't think you make the moves at the trade deadline if you're not feeling a little worried. So there's that. Well, they needed those guys.

Yeah, but they also like mortgage the future in order to make the now as good as possible. For sure. I also have the wolves down here. Speaking of teams that get pricey very quickly, next year,

the wolves have more money on the books than any team in the NBA. More than the Warriors, more than the clippers, all that. Who's paying for this team? Who is paying for those? expensive ass like fifth and six guys.

Well, not us. Probably not Arod and Mark Lory. Well, no, it's Glenn Taylor. Yeah, yeah. If reports are to be believed, Glenn Taylor had to step in because they were about to not pay the luxury tax. Glenn Taylor, great champion of the luxury tax, obviously. He's going to step in and pay because that's what he,

that's what the whispers are saying about why Arod and Lori are undeserving of taking over the team because Glenn Taylor couldn't bear to watch the Timberwood. wolves not spend into the luxury tax for this big shiny team they now have. So there's your answer, Justin. I think Joe Lakeup would blanch at the tax bill that the wolves are setting themselves up for. A small market with an owner who has was laid out typically does not pay top dollar. Do you keep players in house? I think this could get pretty potter keggy pretty quickly.

Do you think I know Kat's back now? Do you think him having the late season injury, having to work his way back in? Does that give you any honest? type cover if you're the wolves in terms of, you know, you might lose early and a tough matchup in the Suns, to be fair, a stacked team relative to what you would normally find at the bottom of the conference. I think it could be kind of explicable if the Wolves lose, if not what they want, clearly, to be paying that kind of bill.

Yeah, I almost wonder, and I put them lower on the list maybe because of this, I think they're going to face this regardless. Like, I actually don't know if it matters what happened. If they go to the finals, they'll be facing this. Yeah. Yeah. And so, like, the results might not. drive the consternation and the complications as a result of this, I think they're going to

have to do something this off-scene regardless. This cannot be said enough. They are paying two guys who play Carl Anthony Towns' actual position close to $70 million per year. Okay? So, like, eventually they're going to have to face the music on Carl Anthony Towns because he's the more eminently, one, he's more movable. than Rudy is.

Two, he's less complimentary because of his clear and obvious deficiencies on one end of the floor. But I think he's been good on defense. Right. But let's just say... In a five, as the backbone of your defense. In a perfect world, they moved Rudy.

Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. That's not a tenable thing. That's what I'm saying. And that's why he's the guy that has to move, especially at his salary, given what they're, like, look, if they had a modestly paid, you know, starting center,

if they were paying their center, Nurkich money to start every single game, then it'd be like, yo, Carlton Dittowns is grossly overpaid to not even play his actual position. It's fine. Let's move on with like, they're paying Rudy Gobert top dollar to pay this position. So, like, I think he's done, Kat. I think no matter how the cookie crumbles this postseason, he's gone. If they somehow flame out in the first round, oh my goodness, stick a fork in them. Well, even if it's a later exit, I think they are positioned if and when the wolves lose.

It will probably be because they don't have enough juice on offense. And if you're paying cat $50 million and Anthony Edwards is the future of your team, to look at that formula and say we don't have enough on offense and we're investing this much in it, I think would necessitate some kind of change. Totally. I also have written down the Hawks and the Pelicans. Neither team might be in the playoffs. But it seems like Trey Young isn't long for this world.

But I think that would have been true. True regardless. Pelicans also luxury tax concerns. Brandon Ingram, one year left on his deal. Zion, we don't know as we're recording this what his future is for the next play in game. But I'd like to see the Pelicans pay the luxury tax. I would like to see them make the playoffs. Both things would be nice.

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dot com. First online real money wager only, $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-laworable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandual.com. All right. Let's move along to number three on our list. Parody. You guys having fun yet?

Yeah. Loving it. So before his warriors were trounce. in the 9-10 game last night. Decimated. Steve Kerr opined that he thinks the gap between 1 and 10

is smaller than ever. Do you guys agree with that? And as a result, do you think we'll see more upsets in this first round? I do think it's generally true. And I also think

if you want to narrow it from 1 to 10 to 1 to 8, or 3 to 8, or 3 to 6, there's a lot of parity in those ranges. And some of that circumstance

with Joel and Bid getting injured, the Miami Heat having a weird, also kind of injury-plagely season, or at least absence-related season. Those are probably better teams than you would usually get at the bottom of the east or toward the bottom of the east. The other thing, just strictly by the standings, how many teams would you guess ended the season

between 46 and 51 wins? 12? This year, 14 teams from 46 to 51. Last season, there were five in that range. Five teams. It helps that we had the Wizards and the... Detroit's there to get some teams some little cush in there.

But there's always some of those. You know, there's always some teams vying for the bottom of the standings. This year, there's so much competence. There's so many good teams that even when we talk about,

oh, the East being relatively weaker, those are still teams that are winning a lot of games. There's still teams that, if nothing else, they had a super hot six weeks where they played really,

really well and kind of buoyed the rest of their season. So I do think there's some parity here, if not contending parity. Like how many teams can realistically win the title? That's a much shorter list. That's what I think is happening here because realistically, I do not think the Warriors are close to the best team in the conference, the Nuggets in any meaningful way.

Like, I don't think it's close. Yeah. But I think in the past, the 10th seat in the West would be far, even far worse than the Nuggets than the Warriors are. And more importantly, I think teams like the Rockets, the Bulls, Like, these 10, 11 seeds are closer to home court advantage teams, like the, or teams that competed for it, like the Magic, like Cleveland, than they were in the past. Like, those games are not a given. Like, Cleveland doesn't walk into Chicago or even Atlanta and think to themselves,

we're just going to kill these guys no matter what. I think that's what's really shrunk is that those teams that are clearly playoff teams and even at the top of the conference, meaning their home court first round teams, that gap has shranked to the point where, you know, I feel like most of those teams would have been 52, 53, 54 win teams at the very tippy top of the conference, but they just don't get fat on these bottom feeders

the way that they used to. In a way where like even Denver, like, dropping that last, last minute game to the Spurs to lose home court advantage throughout the West. Like, that's a game eight, seven, six years ago that once they go up 21, it's over. We're not even talking about that no more. And they ultimately lose that to a bottom feeder in the league.

Again, I get it. Wembe has played way better coming down a stretch. But you just didn't see that back in the days. That's what I think has changed. I don't think the Warriors were close to being as good as OKC or Denver in the West. That's nonsense to me. Yeah, I think we've talked about this in the past, but there's just been a clash of eras

or maybe just like a criss-cross of eras happening simultaneously in the way that really hadn't happened previously other than maybe like the Spurs having like second or third gasps at their sort of title core. It's just like the bottom of the West, for instance, is full of these luminaries and guys like LeBron and Steph and KD for instance while the new class is taking over in the standings. But when we get into a playoff setting,

you can't completely dismiss LeBron in a seven-game series. And so both things are happening at once in ways that I can't ever remember in recent history. Am I forgetting anything? Yeah, it is a weird collision in that way. And yeah, the consistency is all at the top, understandably. The Celtics are reeling off regular season wins. Even teams like the wolves who plow through Carlin Anthony Towns's injury and just keep winning games. Like keep chugging along, keep playing well.

The Thunder, Shea being one of the most consistent scorers in the league all season. And then being one of the most consistent teams in terms of execution all season. And so we did a lot of hand-wringing about the game. the Lakers and the Warriors, understandably. Like, they had really, really awful individual game performances. But eventually, Steph gets you back on track, at least in the regular season. We saw the limits of that in the play-in. And the Lakers, same thing with LeBron and AD.

Like, those guys can get you to a certain point. They can get you to the mid-40s and wins. They just don't necessarily have what it takes to throw a team over the top into actual contention anymore. Since we're kind of talking around the Warriors here, anything, any last rights, perhaps, for our friend Clay Thompson or in the wake of their loss of the king? Last night was dark for me watching Clay struggle in the way that he did. I just have loved watching Clay Thompson play throughout the years.

And the spirit that he brings to the game, his attitude about it is like exemplary. So to see him struggle this mightily and obviously it's like, you know, it's different when a guy struggles where he's just getting crushed on every screen and he dies on screens. And the guy he's guarding is indirectly or directly, um, the cause of great offense for the other team. It's like, oh, like, he got killed, but, like, a pass got sprayed three times and then it resulted in a beautiful play.

You don't, like, identify, like, wow, what a freaking loser that guy is right now. Clay just bricking a bunch of open shots, old for 10, just looking terrible, not being able to stay in front of the guy. Like, it was just so bad and sad to watch. And that suck. And that they're doing that against their little brother,

you know, up the street, right? Vivek is a former minority owner. He goes and hires a warrior's assistant. Harry Barnes, who they infamously just spurned to get the hell out of town. We're getting KD. Like, so many of the elements of, like,

this little brother just housing you like this in their little arena light and a beam. It was just tough. Tough to watch for the Warriors last night. Very tough to watch. Every Harrison Barnes basket felt like a dagger. Oh, man. Keon Ellis, like, ripping Clay Thompson's heart out, man.

Great game for him. Yeah. And that's a spot we have worried about for weeks. Ever since Malik Monk went down and Kevin Herder went down, like, how are they going to get by without a two that can handle the ball? Keon Ellis had an amazing defensive game. Hit shots, was getting to the basket, did everything you could possibly want in a must-win game for the king. So I do want to pour one out for the Warriors. The Clay stuff was very hard to watch.

The dynamic of their team was hard to watch. Chris Paul was hard to watch in that game. too. It's hard to see a team like that go down in the way they did. But it was a triumphant moment for the Kings too. Exercise some demons last night. Yeah, Kegan Murray. Also, man. He's going to come up in a few minutes here. I hope so. Kevin Herder, welcome to the trade, offseason trade pooh-poop platter.

You're now a contract, buddy. I think he's been a part of that for a while. I will say about Clay. It just feels like he's aged into, he's still a helpful player, but he's aged into the spot where he's almost late career JJ Reddick, where, like, I wonder if he's best off getting a balloon payment from a team that's up and coming to both be a spacer and a shooter, but also a steady veteran in the locker room. Like if Orlando had him, could he just do that?

Like, I'm talking like Pelicans era, JJ Reddick. Because what the warriors need from him, and I think what the expectation is just because of how long he's been there in Golden State is you kind of want him to be peak clay. He's never going to be that. and I almost wonder if a chain of scenery will actually benefit both sides. They need a two who can actually dribble the ball.

They do. Who isn't Steph Curry? They need a second best player. Yes. Can you think of on our top 100 lists? Like, can you think of any player who has a worst number two than Steph? Well, I mean, Draymond's very good.

It's just his skill set is different. Right. Yeah. And that's the thing about Clay. Like, I think there's a healthy version of the warriors where Clay could be a reduced version of himself for them. They just would need to supplant him with a much better second creator.

would have to be way better at creating with the ball in their hands. And they just weren't. I just don't know how you get younger and better and cheaper all in one off season. You don't. Yeah. You never do. It's going to be nice to take that 30 million Chris Ball salary off. And Clay won't be making anything close to $45 million next year.

So that'll be nice for your wallet of Joe Lakeham. All right. Let's move on to number four, breakouts. Barrier as Quincy Jones is just killing me right now. Just killing me. Just making hits out here. Which young player, second postseason or less, or unsung role player, will be the breakout player of this first round? So Anthony Edwards, past that.

Yeah. He's already broken out. What about Shay? Is Shay a candidate or is he already post-breakout? He's MVP candidates. Yeah, he's talking to him to break. the break out. Yeah.

But you're right. He's had what? Two, one postseason with Chris Paul as like the tertiary guy. Yeah. I think there are some doubters as far as how much he relies on getting to the free throw line, like one of the best of drawing fouls in the league. There's some questions in and outside the league about what his offensive game is going to look like in the playoffs.

I'm not too worried about it, which is I think if he is eligible, I think he's going to have a great first round and a great postseason. But first team, all NBA guy on the MVP ballot, probably not in the spirit of of the question. Yeah, I would say everyone on OKC except for Shea may qualify. Like, I actually think Jaylon Williams is a prime candidate for this because he's a guy that's going to make a lot of the right plays. And I wonder if you marry that with the moment, with the spotlight.

All of a sudden, I think people are going to appreciate what we've kind of already kind of I could see that. And the teams that they play are going to force him to be the guy that's doing it. Like, the best teams are going to try to take away, you know, cut off some of Shea's oxygen and be like, yo, yeah, other guys are going to have to stuff. up in these big spots. And I think J. Dub is going to be the guy that ultimately has to, you know, step up to the plate in those scenarios.

I think the only issue with a Thunder guy for me as far as this goes is I think they're going to run through the first round. And if they had more of a pressure-packed series where a J-dub was really put under the spotlight or like a very high-profile series, like if they happen to have matched up against the Lakers, then J-dub is, okay, this is a guy who's on national TV in a big moment, having huge games, then he becomes a wider kind of breakout. But if it's just them running through the Kings

or the Pelicans, I think J-D-W is great. I think he's going to have a really impressive postseason in terms of breakout stars of the first round. I don't know that a lot of people are going to be talking about or thinking about him differently just yet. That's a good point. Anybody else? For me, and this won't surprise anybody's Peyton Watson

for me. I just love it. I just love that because of what they've done with Watson and Brown, They've got cost-controlled younger guys that they're not going to have to go find some crazy expensive veteran to fill that role. So when Bruce Brown left in the offseason, we were all very worried about how they would fill out that postseason rotation, which is going to ultimately be seven or eight guys. And they needed one or two guys to step up on the current roster. Peyton Watson has had such amazing moments at times.

and his energy on defense specifically is just incredible. And, you know, I don't want to get too blasphemous, but I think he's going to eventually make Michael Barton Jr. Superfluous, man. Like, they're not going to need that dude making $40 million to do what he does. And so I think he's going to have a few games this postseason where he's, you know, blocking people's shots at the basket, playing in the passing lanes, just an incredible cutter, transition.

But he, like, fills in so many of the gaps. that, you know, Murray and Porter aren't doing. Like, they aren't putting pressure on the rim all the time. They aren't playing in the passing lanes in transition. And I just, I'm really excited to see what Peyton Watson can do, man. Yeah, he's going to have some chase down blocks, some huge defensive plays. Some moments. Some huge defensive assignments.

Yes, yes. You know? We've seen him handle those really well in the regular season. And he's got to have moments because of foul trouble or the rotation or whatever where he has to do it. He has to guard, you know, LeBron. And that's going to be a huge spotlight. moment for him. All right. Settle down.

A couple other guys. We'll revisit. Let's put a pin in this for now. Let's just go ahead and we'll run back to this tape when Payton wants it has a huge game two. That's right. And that's all Justin wants to talk about postgame. It'll be a second round. Variable. Okay. Other guys on the list, just, I mean, the obvious canon, it's Tyrese Halliburton, Tyris Maxie. Technically is fourth postseason, but this is really only as second as a guy. As a lead, especially a lead ball handler.

Kobe White, if they have. make it. Kegan Murray, if they make it, Palo Bankero. Oh, yeah. Obviously, my choice is a two-fer

is Josh Hart in his second postseason. How the hell is this guy only been in his second postseason now, considering all the other teams? He feels like such a post-season player. 100%. And Isaiah Hartenstein,

technically second as a rotation guy. They are the Hart Foundation, which on Bill's Pod recently, recently he credited Waz as creating that name. So you're trying to claim it back. Yeah, We're taking it back. I think I gave you credit even when I brought it up.

You did. Yeah. Bill, if you're listening, I need all the wins that I can get. Please help the brother out here. But that's who I have. I could see Deuce McBride. Like legitimately perfect, like, energy guard comes in and changes a game. And then we're like, oh, he has that potential in him.

And we consider him that kind of player moving forward. I could see that. Jalen Suggs. If we're talking about Donovan Mitchell in particular, who had a rough ending to the season until the very, very end. He went like through a month stretch where because of injury and underperformance, I think Donovan Mitchell failed to score like 15 points in a game for a month. And then right at the end of the season popped off again and started looking like

Donovan Mitchell again. But we've seen in the playoffs, if you can cap him, if you can contain him, if you can pressure him, and Jalen Suggs is a first team worthy defender, that could change the complexion of that entire series. That could lead to the kind of upset that asks some very hard questions about the has, as we've said, and gets a lot of acclaim for someone like Jalen sucks. I've just been thinking about the theme song this whole time. It's just playing back there.

I'm preparing to transition. Yeah, I think my last one is Daniel Gafford, who we mentioned. Huge. Because the insertion of him and Derek Jones Jr. into the starting lineup has been what's jump started their defense into being pretty damn good, if not freaking elite. the last, you know, six weeks or so. And so he's going to be counted upon to be a major factor on defense.

Obviously, he's the lob threat that Lucas's been campaigning for all year. And it, like, you don't want to be starting a rookie at center in the freaking playoffs, right? So it opens them up to bring a more seasoned guy, even if he doesn't have a postseason resume. So I think Daniel Gafford is a young guy that we should definitely be paying attention to

for a breakout. And he's seasoned, not that season. You know, he's been around for a while, but he's been a wizard for a while. So he's only been in the playoffs once. And he's only 25 years old. And I think what's impressive by Gafford, too, especially from a playoff standpoint, is he's not just

a lob guy. He's been able to catch around the free throw line, catch deeper on the baseline, and make some moves, make some passes. He has a little bit of that facilitation to his game that when Luke is getting trapped up top, are facing a lot of pressure up top, that's what you want in your big. What did I used to think his first name was?

Remember I could not get his first name right for like, you want me to peg, you messing up somebody's name in a very specific way. Like, this happens every week on this podcast. Maybe it was like Frank. Yeah, Frank Gafford. Instead of Frank Gifford. Well, the guy we have to talk about here is Zion Williamson, who unfortunately is going to be out on Friday.

So, wow. With that left hamstring injury, really huge bummer, but obviously if he was healthy, if the Pelicans do make it to the first round, he would obviously be on this list. But Zion is actually a good candidate for our next segment. from our friends at State Farm. And now it's time for today's hard-to-handle segment presented by State Farm. Life's big moments, like buying a house, can trigger big reactions like, I can't handle this. Dang!

Or, oh, come on! But what you should say is, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. So let's talk about this week's biggest hard-to-handle moments, aka some on-court incurances that stirred up some strong reactions. Rob, I mean, Zion had to have stirred some. something in you. I don't know what qualifies as a playoff debut anymore. Do playing games count for that? No. They should.

Like Zion showing up in the exact game in fashion you would want him to show up in that game against the Lakers before getting hurt. Just brutal to watch him go down in that way. But before he did, 40 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, got them tied with three minutes left,

huge comeback for the Pelicans, including a Zion Allioub to basically like punctuate that huge run. What more would we have expected or wanted from him? Like it was a culmination of all the things we've been asking of Zion, playing on and off the ball, being an active defender, blocking guys like LeBron,

coming up with huge plays in ways that no one else on the Pelicans can really do. He had it all, and we had it all, until he went down. Yeah, the nature of what he was doing was just going straight up at Anthony Davis, all defense, defensive player of the year candidate, somebody who we have immense respect for, as I just went at him, went right into his chest and was just scoring at the cup at will. He was doing this, getting the ball on the perimeter, dribbling into freaking layups.

Backdoor on LeBron, like 20 times. It was this amazing to watch. But the problem for that is it seems like Zion gets hurt every time he exerts himself, which in the playoffs, that feels like a freaking problem. And these are muscle injuries, which we know that's like a lot of the cause of it is like over-exertion. So like whenever this guy tries really hard,

it feels like he gets hurt, which doesn't bode well for New Orleans when your superstar can't go full tilt. And that's what you need in these big moments against LeBron and Anthony Davis. Two future Hall of Famers, you know, two guys still playing at very high level. And Zion being your equalized

and he gets hurt just because, you know, he had to physically, you know, put himself at a level 10. That just sucks to see. But it's at least good to get one of the questions answered, which is, can Zion be a huge factor in games like this? this. Asin answered, yes, absolutely. Can his body hold up doing that game after game series after series? Still to be determined. You might say he's hard to handle both from a defensive

standpoint like the Lakers found out, but also from a front office standpoint. Yeah. Hard to handle a guy like that, try to fit around the right guys, you know? Yeah. Superstar who doesn't play. Yeah. It's tough. But when things feel hard to handle Rob, like when you need help protecting what matters most, remember to say, like a good neighbor, state farm is there. With State Farm, you can talk to your agent to help choose the coverage you need, select from coverage options to protect the things you value most, file a claim right on the State Farm mobile app, and reach a real person when you need to talk to someone.

Visit statefarm.com to learn more. All right. One more playoff variable. Opportunity knocking. So after the Celtics and the Nuggets, who I assume we have is our favorites in each conference, who do you guys have is the next most likely team to make? take it to the finals. So it was third. What,

was, what do you think for this? I guess it's got to be the OKC Thunder. That's kind of where I ended up. Whoa. Yeah.

Nuts. I don't ultimately think it's going to happen, but when you look at the way things is sort of shaking out with the honest injuries and, you know,

how other teams have finished out the season, even, you know, the Mavs, who have been super hot, like, do you feel like they're their prime to win the next three rounds in the postseason?

I have the Mabs if we want to jump forward to that. Okay. But I think that's it. Like, those two we have to talk about. Because to me, with the way the bracket has established itself, the wolves are probably the best individual team to potentially beat the nuggets. The problem with the wolves is I just don't think

they have the offense to get through three rounds. And so they may beat Denver, but in terms of getting all the way to the finals, I think we look to the other side of the West. And that's where it's either going to be the Thunder or potentially the Mavs or potentially the Clippers, if you believe in them. But I kind of like the Thunder's chances there. I like the way that this has broken out for them. Yeah, maybe based on the bracket, they probably have better odds.

I think the Mavs, if you have a hot Luca, it could probably be any team in the NBA right now. They've been top 10 on both sides of the ball since the trade deadline. No, Dallas has been top 10 on both sides of the ball since the deadline. And their execution is playoff caliber execution. Like, Luca will get you a great shot every possession down the floor. That's a very powerful thing in a postseason setting. And so if we're looking at the West, it's not necessarily who can beat Denver. It's who can get a little farther if Minnesota happens to beat Denver.

That's almost what I'm more concerned with. And the problem with the wolves, even like factoring them into that conversation is, are they going to make it out of the first round to begin with? I think the maps can beat Denver in the right situation. You think so? I don't think the Nuggets will lose. How many crazy Kyrie Irving hook shots would it take to beat the Nuggets in a actual playoff series? Two and a half.

I think that's what it is though, right? I think the MAVs are capable of getting hot and scoring in such a way that as elite as Denver is against everybody, no matter what it seems, the MAVs do have a potential to be explosive enough, particularly from three, to just outscore these guys.

And so I understand what Justin is going with that, honestly. Yeah, the Mavericks formula and the fact that they don't rely on drawing fouls, and they don't even really rely on offensive rebounds that much, that makes them a pretty good candidate for this. Yeah, but I do think it has to be someone from the West, if only because the West is going to be a bloodbath. And we'll see how that shakes out.

Should we talk about the Sixers at least a little bit? Oh, interesting. I think if you're going to pick a team in the East, again, I would love to say that the Bucks have proven that they could be that team, but they can't. The Knicks are so dinged up. I don't trust the Cavs to really do much other than maybe make it out of that first round.

But I think the Sixers have an argument. When Joelle has played, they've been awesome. It's a gimpy argument. It's a gimpy argument. That's the thing. I think any, look, any argument that's not Celtics Nuggets is a little gimpie. It's tough. Yeah.

And if you're going to make it, you make it behind the strength of an MVP candidate, whether it's Shay or Luca or Joel. Those are the guys who could get you all the way there. I don't know that I'm betting on it, but I think they could. I think if they get past the Knicks, which I really struggled with, we're going to predict every series now. And this is probably a good transition as any. I want to believe in the Sixers, but it's,

it does feel like the marketing for error is just razor thin. Like, Joel, one slip, and it feels like everything can fall away. Of course. Of course. The wrong whistle. He has been the beneficiary of a very happy whistle throughout the season. I wonder if that changes the calculus there. I mean, and just Jalen Brunson, just being able to overwhelm guys, I do wonder if, like, they just have the right sort of team to topple the Sixers before they even get started.

I agree with you in a vacuum. The Sixers probably the most put together. of these very rejiggered and kind of confusing Eastern Conference teams,

but I don't know, you think they're going to get past the Knicks? I think they could. Yeah. And I think their second round

matchup would be favorable either way, whether it's the Bucks or the Pacers. That's something the Sixers can win. And so the path to at least getting

to the Celtics is clear. Could they beat Boston? I really don't think so. But they at least had the matchup play to make it fun and interesting and to challenge the Celtics in ways

that other teams can't. I like watching Joelle drag his leg up and down the court, I just don't, it just hasn't inspired a lot of confidence for me. And the others on the team, I don't think they're going to be able to just carry the day. And, you know, certain teams are going to make Joel playing space. They're not going to play them to the next one. But like, you know, other teams will make him play in space, play out in the perimeter, which I think is going to wear this guy down. I just don't see it for the sixes. So as we're recording this, we don't know the results

of the Eastern Conference playing in least the first round of this. So why don't you give us your series predictions for the West, not knowing whether the Kings or the Pelicans are going to be playing in that 1A against the Thunder. Okay. Yeah, for what it's worth,

I do think the Thunder would beat either of those teams in about five. I agree. That feels like where it's going. I think the Nuggets will also win in five over the Lakers. I think the wolves will beat the suns but in seven. And I think the Mavs will beat the Clippers in six.

Yeah, OKC, yeah, five games. I feel like they'll sweep the pelicans, honestly. They're battered, bruised, limping into this. If Zion isn't playing and... If they have no Zion and a beat-up, Brandon Ingram, who couldn't even get into the freaking lineup to close out the game in the clutch. And justifiably was off the floor. Justifiably.

That's a sweep for me. Four or five games, sweep, depending on the matchup. I think the Nuggets will beat the Lakers. I think the Lakers will finally get a game off of them after 50 million tries. So, yeah, five games to echo what Rob says. I think the Wolves will beat the Sons in six. I just don't believe in the Sons just generally. I don't think they're like a cohesive team.

I don't believe in their ability to, you know, have Brad Biel and other guys stay in the lineup. up. And I think Minnesota's just primed to beat them. They're hungry. And I think they're going to beat them in six games. And I think the maps take care of the Clippers in five. I have no zero confidence in what the clippers bring. Kauai. We don't even know the status of his injury because that's just something that can never be answered, ever. He's healthy enough to be on the Olympic team. Right. That's funny. For the last five years, basically. So yeah, I think the Mavs, they're so hot right now. They need to take care of these guys in five games. So I have the Thunder, I have the

Nuggets. I have the Sons. How many games do you think for the Sons? Probably six or seven. It's going to go long regardless. It feels like a longer series. I just, I don't trust the wolves. I think the Sons are the Sons are on and they only have to win four of these. I think they have enough. And I'm sure people could have assumed from our conversation about the other contenders, but all three of us picking the Mavs feels pretty notable. Yep. The two series we know. in the east. So, Bucks, Pacers, Cavs, Magic,

you already said Pacers. I think Pacers in six. Okay. Bucks and seven. I'll go Bucks, but I don't feel good about it. Yeah. It feels like the kind of series that the Bucks could flub

and that we really see the limits of dame time. That's kind of what I'm, that's what I'm imagining. And the Pacers playing to their style and pushing them and keeping their pace, which is a difficult thing to do in the postseason sometimes, but they're so committed.

to it. I think they can pull it off. For the other series, I do think the Cavs win. I think they win ugly, but I think they beat Orlando in six. Yeah, I think they beat Orlando in six games. Orlando being young and talented but so predictable offensively, I think, like,

the predictability is going to be what the Cavs are able to home in on and just shut them down, cut off their oxygen. So, yeah, I think the Cavs beat them in six. I think the Bucks win in seven. And yeah, whoever the hell boss, Well, no, I guess it does matter who boss.

Yeah. The key versus Sixers versus, I guess, if we want to acknowledge the wildcard possibility of neither, changes a lot as far as those top two matchups go. I still think the Celtics are going to come out of that first series. Probably so. Yeah. All right.

Why don't we wrap it there? Thank you to Isaiah Blakely on production. Thank you to Ben Cruz. Thank you to Victoria Valencia. Thank you to Gaha'aut. We'll be back on Sunday. We'll be same time on. Sunday we'll be recording based on Saturday's results.

So we'll have all of the reactions to the first wave of games on Saturday. We will see you then. Must be 21 plus and 18 plus in D.C. In present in select states, Fandul is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, D.C., Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania,

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