The Ringer NBA Show - How Do Surprise Contenders Fit in to the Title-Race Hierarchy? | Group Chat

Episode Date: November 10, 2021

Justin, Rob, and Wos discuss whether the Warriors (2:36), Heat (18:38), Wizards (31:31), and Bulls (40:44) are championship contenders. Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producer: Brian H. Waters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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And welcome to group chat. I am Justin Verrier. Joining me, as always, Rob Mahoney. Big Wads, gentlemen, we are here. Last week we talked about some of the teams that are struggling, but now the good vibes are back. Rob, you of all people should be happy about this. Well, the greatest surprise of all is that you suggested a podcast

about teams that are doing well and good storylines and optimism. It springs eternal here on group chat. I will say I initially thought like, oh, let's talk about the Warriors and the Heat. At that point, they were the two best teams in their respective conferences. And then I thought to myself, well, but he ultimately fell off. But I also thought to myself,

there's only so much you could talk about with positivity, man. You'd be like, oh, this is a very well-run organization. It doesn't work like that, as was definitely knows. But you're escaping our hawks conversation, which I feel like is coming in the next couple weeks.

So, yes. Congrats. Well, listen, it's very early in the season for my hawks are going to be gang, busters take, but it's looking quite horrible and miserable. And, you know, I will say the people online have shown some restraint, which I appreciate. But, you know, I think a lot of the things they're messing up at are very fixable.

But yeah, it's been bad. I mean, nothing is going to make Waz bust out the spreadsheets. Talk about small sample size, like the hawks struggling a little out of the gate. It's too soon. It's too soon. All right. We'll talk about the team that beat them the other day. The Golden State Warriors up top. Just to clarify, we're going to get into some of the surprise contenders. Some of the good teams that have caught our eye here that people, I don't know if we're expecting going into this season and how they fit into the title race hierarchy, whether or not they have real chances of being contenders. But let's start there with the Golden State Warriors. Another team was, we should say, you were higher on than the consensus on this podcast. Are you surprised at this point now, 9 in 1 with the best defense in the entire freaking league? Yeah, I mean, best defense in the league is not something that I anticipated for this group.

And then, you know, you kind of dig a little bit into their defensive numbers. They are, nobody's getting shots at the cup. And even when they do, I think they're allowing less than 60% at the rim, which is insane because league averages something like 66% at the cup. So nobody's shooting those great shots. And even when they do get them, they're not converting them. And I think more telling is the three-point defense where, you know, they're allowing a decent amount,

but teams are shooting 30% from three against them. Do you have Kevin Pelin on this podcast? Look at this data dump right here. I mean, you know, KP's a friend of mine. I might have talked to him about this. You never know. But yeah, look, they're allowing 30% on threes. And I'm somebody who is a little bit different from the analytics types.

I think there is a way to force teams in the bad threes. I think there are not all three-point attempts are created equally, right? But however, the idea that they're going to allow teams to shoot only 30 freaking percent from three all season, that seems unsustainable. But what they're doing, the type of shots that they're forcing teams in, into, I think is going to be sustainable and they should be around the top eight, top seven, and defense all year. And once they get Clay Thompson back, their offense is going to be better.

So this shit is real. Yeah, especially when you look at the perimeter talent that they have. This is not a group that's necessarily going to be total clamps all the time on all the three-pointers to a 30% level. But what they do have are veterans now. They have a lot more guys who are going to be in the mix, in the rotations, knowing where to be knowing how to do their ex-outs, knowing how to do all this stuff that high-level defense needs to know how to do. And that's where you have that faith, that even if they're not first, that they could be top

five, that they could be top seven or eight, as you were saying, was. And I think they're playing a little over their head right now in general. But the fundamentals on both sides of the ball and throughout this roster are so strong that you have to believe in kind of the credence of what they're doing here, which means I already got to take my Mia Kulpaw on this one. They look so much better than I thought they were going to look. Yeah, no, they definitely leaned more into their identity. I mean, we talked about this.

At the end of last season, going into this season, just seems and felt more like a Warriors team. You got Bielitsa in there. They're not really playing a traditional center outside of Gavon Looney. But Rob, I think you brought up kind of the central tension point of like now going into the future. They're not playing any of the young guys who could complicate this entire thing between Moses Moody, Jonathan Cominga, and James Wiseman, they're playing, the three of them have 79 total minutes together.

That's a good thing. Yeah, but that's the question, though. Like, at some point, you do have to bring these guys along. And we saw against the Hawks, like, you throw out Cominga for a couple minutes, you let them screw up a couple times, and then you take them out. Like, are they going to have to play them more? Is this going to be more complicated and difficult as the season goes on? Or are they going to stack enough wins that, like, maybe this actually doesn't matter?

I mean, I hope they like Santa Cruz. I think they're going to get a lot of G-League time this season. But I think, you know, just to go full Hawks podcast with this, I think the model for those guys is Anyaka Kangu. Like what he did for the Hawks last year, which is come in, give 10 good minutes off the bench in select games and select matchups where you can be in a position to succeed. That's kind of what those guys are going to be asked to do.

Fill in spots here and there. You know, somebody gets injured from the perimeter rotation. Okay, Moses Moody, you're going to get a little, extra time for two weeks, you know, two-week stint. That's kind of where they fit right now. Because all of this is working as is, and this isn't accounting for 25 to 30 minutes of Clay Thompson, like they're going to want if he's fully healthy and ready to go. There's just not going to be a lot of opportunity for those guys in the mix right now, which is a tough beat for the Warriors long term. I don't know what that means for three years down the line. But right now, this is a team

that could win the Western Conference. That path is available to them, and so they have to take it. Yeah, by the way, Hawks haters, I haven't gotten my Congu minutes all year yet. Sure. Gallo might be cooked. Lou Will has been done ever since he got COVID. But whatever. Too much bench mob units. I'm getting too in the weeds here.

Right. But I can't keep track of whether or not Cam Reddish is good anymore. Like at one minute, he was a revelation in the next. He's like screwing things up. But again, it's another podcast. It's another podcast. We're going to do the Hawks thing another day. But, no, but you guys are right.

Look, comminga and Moody can't play a lot of minutes for this team to be good. Rookies are always negative impact players. Like, there's been, like, two of them. It's like LeBron and Luca in the last, like, 30 years, right? Like, rookies genuinely generally stink their first season. Like, they have to go through it. There's no other way to learn how to be contributing NBA players besides playing. Like, you have to go through these growing pains, but if you're a team with aspirations that aren't lottery balls,

OK, C, you can't play a bunch of young guys, right? So, you know, not, why isn't it being out and limiting the comminga and moody minutes, great positive for Golden State? Now, you know, of course we got to get to the Steph of it all. In the notes Justin has here, that aside from the 50-point game, Steph has only scored 30 points once. I think that's a positive. Because very early on last year,

he had a game where he dropped like 60 against the Blazers and they won by like four points. And I was like, that's just bad. You're beating a run-of-the-mill Western Conference team by four points when your best player dropped 60-something. That doesn't pretend to positive outcomes for you over the course of a season, right? So the fact that Steph doesn't have to carry

an insane burden for this team to have the best net rating in the league and Clay Thompson hasn't come back yet? Look, man, if you're Golden State Warriors fan, you should be really, really happy about the outcome so far. And I think the story here, and it's really a credit to Steph and to Draymond and to Steve Kerr, is that this is a franchise that basically had two bad seasons and they pick up exactly where they left off.

Culture-wise, style. their roster is totally different from where they, when they last went to the NBA finals. And yet, you would think they just kind of rolled in with the same guys. And yeah, sure, they brought Andre back. So I guess there's some continuity there. But I don't know how they did that because there are a lot of teams, even championship level teams, who they have two down seasons like they did. Steph gets a little older.

Guys are a little more injured. They just don't play the same way anymore. And the Warriors have been able to pull off that magic trick, which is incredible. And they don't have to have Steph score as much as, you know, as he used. used to, certainly in these recent seasons, and they can still blow out the Pelicans by 40, and Jordan Poole can go off for 30-point games. There's a lot to work with here. So I want to read, I want to bring up a tweet that our guy Sammis Fendiari put out the

other day, and it was, you know, to sum it up, he said, the sooner we realized that Steph, Clay, Drayman, and Kerr are the new Pop Manu, Tim, and Tony, the smarter will be for it. And, you know, he's kind of freaking right at this point. Right. Yeah, I mean, they've also talked about that. I think Joe Lakeup was very upfront about wanting to be the next spurs to extend this dynasty into the next decade. Oh, no, he didn't want to be the next spurs.

He was saying the spurs fall off. We're just going to last forever and ever and ever. We're going to surpass the spurs. In perpetuity. I think the Kerr part of this is really interesting, though, because last year, I think our friend Sam Espendiari in particular was critiquing Kerr because he wasn't adapting to what the roster really needed. He didn't go away from his beautiful ball movement.

like just pass, pass, past style and just like run a goddamn pick and roll for once. I honestly feel like that sort of attitude is to their benefit

now that they have a little bit more on the roster. Like, Kerr almost strikes me as someone who like, like coaches every game as if he's going

through a midlife crisis. Like he doesn't want to do the things he needs to do. He wants to do things he wants to do. He wants to play beautiful style even though it might not be to his benefit. And to that extent,

like just playing Gary Payton the second within a box in one like struck me as a very, like, I'm going to ride my Harley and just, like, go off into the distance, not care about anything with the wind blowing through my hair. It's just like, who cares? Like, they're just trying shit, and it worked. And if it didn't, I think

it would just roll off Kerr's back and he would go on to the next game. Like, that sort of attitude, those sort of like, just wanting to try things, that spirit is back again. And it feels good. Well, that's where the conversation last season was so fraught and so complicated. And we participated in this too.

It's just like the things that were going to be good for the Warriors last season were not necessarily the things that would be good for them long term to play the best possible basketball they could. And so that puts them in an awkward place. It puts Kerr in an awkward place. But yeah, needless to say they've recovered. And I mean, Justin, I think we can go ahead and pencil in

the Gary Payton the second is fucking awesome podcast at some point. I don't know when you want to schedule that. But he's been an adventure. Yeah, what a real love. By the way, no, just to circle back on the Kerr talk. Last year, when I did talk to Sam and Andy about it, I was like, guys, look, you want Steph to go Westbrook the first year after KD is gone over here?

To what end? To a 45 win rate, 45 wins per season win rate. So you could put all of that wear and tear on his body for a flame out in the first round. What's the point of that? I think that's why I was siding with Steve Kerr when it came to, all right, let's just do what we normally do. Even if our personnel doesn't dictate it, because on a certain hand, it's like, theft only has so many years, right? It's one of those things that we don't really realize

when we're talking about rest and all of these things. Like, just because you rested when you were 34, doesn't mean at 39 you're going to be some amazing player. You're generally going to be a way worse athlete at 39 to 40, no matter how much you rested. So the idea that these are the only years that this guy is going to be this incredible, we might as well use them.

I understand that. However, again, if the long-term health the best player in the history of your franchise is to mean anything, we're not going to shot this guy out there for 42 minutes a game, Iverson style, give him a 35% usage so that the Warriors can be a freaking run-of-the-mill Western Conference team. Like, I don't understand the point of that. And, you know, this year's paying dividends because there's way more continuity

within the system. And like you guys mentioned, there's more vets like Iggy who understand what they're trying to do on a night-to-night basis. and they reap into benefits of it. Do you think that while the institutional knowledge has definitely increased across this team and you have guys like Jordan Poole stepping up, Draymond Green seems to be like more of the ideal version of him,

probably like unencumbered by like some of the three-pointers and other stuff that have gotten in his way and kind of diminished his value, particularly in some of the losing seasons. And he spoke to Logan Murdoch even about like not even trying. So maybe a lot of this is a little jumbled. but like what is what is going to hold them back going forward, Rob? Do you think they have enough offensively until Clay gets through to get through some of these tougher teams that are coming up on their schedule?

Yeah, I mean, I think the formula, if you're playing against them, is the same as it was last year, which is a lot of pressure on Steph, forcing the ball into Jordan Pool or Damien Lee's hands and saying, okay, we need you guys to beat us now. We need you guys to hit tough, contested pull-up shot. and some nights Jordan Poole is going to hit those. I mean, he has absolutely proven that, but that's still what you're writing on. And you're still riding on,

you know, Dremont has been incredibly aggressive as a score by his standards this season. Like he's going to the cup in a way we haven't seen in a couple years. But is that going to be the case every game? If he's in that zone where he's like feeling things out and trying to read, if you take two to the ball against Steph

and put the ball in Dremont's hands, we know he can spray out and hit shooters, but like if you give him kind of, the lane and play back and challenge him to be more of a score, is he going to take that opportunity? So I think those are obviously on the table in addition to we just don't know what Clay's going to be yet. I think there are whispers of a lot of optimism around the league, around the Warriors. He's been out there warming up.

Looks pretty healthy. Looks pretty good. But game time action is a totally different thing. Yeah. And the thing that the Warriors offense has going in its favor is that most teams don't really have the personnel, one, defensively, to just stop what they're trying to do. And two, even when you do have the personnel, you got to have these dudes scouted and have a level of discipline that, like, in the regular season, you just don't see every single year in the playoffs with the

Warriors when it comes to, you know, just the teams have them scouting and know what to do. The answer is always the same, right? It's like, you got to switch a lot of this off-ball stuff. You got to force them to get into the one-on-one because guess what? This offense is about pinging the ball around when they're not moving it and they are doing dribble, dribble, dribble, it causes a sort of agitation and anxiety, right?

It's like, this isn't what we're supposed to be doing. And so that's how you're supposed to play them. But in the regular season, even teams that are like, all right, we're going to switch everything. You don't got the horses with Steph Curry's like, all right, you want to switch it? Put some scrub crap defender on me. And I'm going to kill him, right?

Like, most teams can't stop what they're doing in the regular season. So I think their offense is going to be just fine against most of these teams. So I think the question is not, do we think they're going to be good? Because it seems like we're pretty convinced that this is sustainable. I think the real question is, do we think they're top of the league good? Are they back to being world beater good? Lakers, Nets, top tier of the NBA good. Wads, are you there yet?

Look, as long as Clay comes back, because the defense is the key to me, I think they're going to score on people no matter what. As long as Clay comes back in, you know, the sort of all-in-one weird metrics always hated Clay's defense. But once you watch this dude on defense, either guarding the best perimeter guys just straight up one-on-one, chasing dudes around screens, being a great help defender when it came to, you know, doing stuff like digs, and helps side defense. Like, Clay is an elite defender when he's healthy. If he could come back and be close to that, watch out. I think we need a little bit more time to establish if they're like the best in the West good right now,

just to see if all this stuff holds up, if all the indicators are kind of holding strong. But right now, I think what's really working in their favor is the other teams in the West. I mean, Utah has been good. Utah's been good. The third best team in the West by net rating is the Clippers. So that's where we are.

And if you look across conferences, the nets and the bucks have a lot of stuff going on. Like injuries, whatever it is that's ailing Brooklyn. And so the Warriors have every reason to feel great about their circumstance and where they are and how they've played so far. We just got to see it hold up.

All right. Let's look across the conference now because we have three East teams up here. Three of the more intriguing teams of this early, what, first 10, 11, 12 games for most of these teams. The Miami Heat, we're recording this directly after or day after they had one of their worst games of the season

where before they started to fight Nicola Yokic things were just complete muddled mess so that game probably notwithstanding Rob what are you feeling about Miami this season third on offense six on defense you think this is sustainable I don't know I mean third on offense is crazy

it's crazy for this group of players but I would say I'm more amazed than I am skeptical. And some of that is because they have good shooters, they have smart players, but really what they have is elite offensive rebounding. And that's a combination of Bam and Jimmy and even Dwayne Dedman has been really good for them on the offensive glass off the bench. And really what they are is one of the best outfits in the league when it comes to drawing fouls. And Jimmy Butler has been one of the one stars who just has not been affected by the rule changes in that capacity.

the rare star whose free throw attempts have actually gone up this season. And I don't know what it is about the way Jimmy is baiting defenders, because by my eye, he does a lot of the same trickery that a lot of these other stars who are getting called for it do. But for whatever reason, it's working for him in ways that it isn't for James Hardin or Damien Lillard or whoever you want to point to. I think refs are just afraid that when Jimmy yells at them, that he might actually do something about it.

He was telling guys, we could take it outside. I know. Creep's creeping that. Like, we, let's go. Let's do it. I will say from a very far distance. Just, just got to throw that out there.

The league office took him seriously enough. You know, he got fined for basically saying, let's take it outside of wall backing up. So clearly they thought there was something there. By the way, I say this in a shawl cardigan in my apartment with a space heater on. So just to show you how hood I am. This is notoriously like the tough dudes podcast, right? Like, this is where we gather.

That's the rebrand. This is the back alley brawl podcast, of course. I just think Jimmy, the free throw stuff seems super sustainable to me between Jimmy, between Bam. And, you know, when you're offensive rebounding at the rate that they are, you get fouled on those attempts a lot too. You know what I mean? I just think all of the stuff that they're doing offensively is pretty sustainable. At the third best efficiency in the league, no. However, their defense, we know that's going to travel.

You know, that's got legs. The defense has legs. So, yeah, I think what you're seeing is real. And it's not just like Golden State, what they do, ball movement-wise, most teams, if they're just going to guard them conventionally, when it comes to picking road coverages and, you know, covering guys off the ball running off the screens. Duncan Robinson shot 17-3s the other night. 17.

He only made five, but you can't let that dude shoot 17.3. So teams are going to guard them conventionally. This offense has all the stuff it needs to sustain itself. Yeah. Tyler Hero heard the 17 number, and he's like, ooh, I'm going to get 57 now. He's probably the next guy we should talk about here, because in addition to Jimmy just kind of going gangbusters and looking like an MVP early of the season,

Heroes just stepped up. He's actually taking more attempts than anybody else on this. including Jimmy Butler and all of a sudden... That's a free throw thing, you know. No, field goal attempts. He's... No, I'm saying, but like, Jimmy takes so many free throws his field goals are down.

Don't ruin my stab. I'm sorry. Just buy into the line. Nerd alert! But Hero has definitely stepped forward. Like, everything out of his hand looks like it's going in. He is, dare I say,

wet. Well, Justin, let me say. I mean, I think we're both right on this because by basketball reference, as of this moment, Hero and Butler have identical usage rates. So we're both right. There we go. What a beautiful thing.

Kevin O'Connor had a piece about this on the ringer today. And just like, it is interesting to see them pivot more into maybe a Jimmy-centric offense, maybe a hero-centric offense where like they're doing fewer handoffs with Duncan Robinson and running a little bit more motion. It's a lot more pounded into Jimmy, pounded into Hero, post-ups, isolation, offensive rebounds, which has been effective, far, I think the question, Rob, is like, is that sort of pivot in the modern NBA? Like, what are the legs for that?

Like, do you think that's a sustainable top five, top ten offense over the course of an 82 game season? Well, I think that's the thing you hammer over the 82 games is getting guys in those habits, in those grooves of learning how to attack in those ways with this group of teammates around them. Because when it comes down to it, if you want to go back to the handoff stuff, that's what, that's all of these guys' natural default setting is bam. work in the elbows is Kyle Lowry being a facilitator moving without the ball they can fall back into that stuff no problem right? Yeah, I mean, I'm kind of mixed here because they are in a lot of ways just doing what the heat typically do, which Spow typically does, which is just bring the best out

of his personnel. He used to do this with kind of ugly, delicious type of players like Derek Jones Jr. and Rodney McGruder and like turning like bringing out the best of these guys that I think a lot of other teams passed on. Duncan Robinson being just a prime example of that. And Rob you wrote about that a couple years ago, just like the dead eye shooter without confidence. Like, they just build confidence in him and here he is. To a certain extent, it seems like they're just doing this with higher caliber of players. Like on the broadcast, I remember hearing the stat is like all of a sudden the heater leading the league or among the league leaders and charges take it.

It's like, oh, they're a Kyle Lowry team now. They're running the ISOs for Jimmy and Tyler. And also like, PJ Tucker seems to be blending in pretty seamlessly. Yeah. He's doing the thing where he's just standing in the corner a lot. but also like I love how much of a connector he is like and how he will just make like smart reads on a short role or just like make the right pass to the right guy. And it just like it seems like collectively this team is just so smart that regardless of what they're going to run, it's going to work. And Spoh in particular is one of the best in the league, finding out how to exploit their best assets.

And guess what? Tyler and Jimmy in a playoff setting, if these guys are going to go anywhere, are going to have to do this exact. thing, right? Like, Jimmy's going to have to get to the line in isolation. Tyler Hero's going to have to be in attack mode, which, by the way, he's shown an increased level of shake or just get loose. Like, he just has that now. Like, off the dribble, there's a level of juice that he has this year that just, it just wasn't there last year.

And obviously, his pull-up game is looking money. He's playmaking at a higher rate than he did his previous two seasons. He looks incredible in this early going. I wonder how sustainable at that efficiency it'll be, right? But to be tied with Jimmy Butler and usage and have it come out, roses is pretty freaking cool to see. So what do we think long term here, Rob? Because on one hand, they blew the doors off the jazz, a really good team, as we kind of outlined earlier, 118 points. And then the next game out, they're scoring 96.

the nuggets. Obviously, things got crazy. They were late, but that game, as you mentioned, was kind of a mess. Like, what is probably more real for the heat? I mean, I think what's real is among the Eastern Conference field, they, to me, feel like the most convincing challenger to the established hierarchy, right? Like, the bucks, they've been so injured. I'm not ready to make any definitive statements about who they are or how they play. The nets, I just refuse to believe are as wishy-washy as they've been basically. And I mean, that could change if Hardin continues to play like this from a physical standpoint. Like if he continues to not be able to blow by guys and have that kind of explosion,

whether because it was hamstring or whatever, that could recontextualize who they are. If you look at the rest of the conference, the heat to me are the easy pick for the team that you would feel most confident about in a seven game series that would be most tenacious, most adaptable. As you mentioned, the combination of all of these veteran guys of this really high, level talent and of Eric Spolstra, you know, moving the pieces around, that's a really formidable mix. Yeah, some of the other teams we're going to talk about the wizards and the bulls. I think they seem like the type of teams that are built to win in the regular season. It just seems like the heat, if anything, they're leaning into a structure that is going to be more profitable

long term. I am a little concerned, though, like I think they're going to be a successful team. I wouldn't be surprised if they're top three, whatever, top two in the east by the end of the season. and the depth is pretty thin. Like if they get an injury or two, like, is this Dwayne Dedman take 20 shots sort of night? Like, I wonder if, like, this team needs Ola Depot maybe more than we realize. I mean, man, I forgot Ola Depot even existed on this team. To be honest, because the way they're playing right now is not very Ola Depot-centric.

It's, you're going to have to start taking the ball out of Jimmy and Heroes hands. when Oladipo comes back, because that's kind of been the only way he's been capable of being an effective player his whole career. It's him with the ball in his hand. So you wonder, with the beautiful juju that's been happening specifically offensively with this team, if him coming back would interrupt that,

you know, coming off of just successive injuries, that'll be interesting. It's definitely something to monitor. But in a playoff series, like, Spolstra's ability to muck up the works and figure out how to take teams out of their best stuff. He's shown it year after year, series after series. They're going to be tough, tough, tough, tough to be.

So long as they're healthy, which is another elephant in the room, right? Like, Jimmy's healthy. Kyle Lowry's healthy. That's not always been the case throughout their whole career. So we got to monitor that as well. they're also a team that's going to be in a really good position for buyout candidates, for trade deadline, kind of veterans who are looking to rehome, all of that kind of stuff. And I think in a way that's favorable compared to the Lakers, I think last season, if I were a veteran player in the NBA,

I would be looking at the Lakers situation with a bit of a side eye with the way things went between with Drummond and Gassal, for example, last season. And like neither guy was really happy with their situation. And if you look at the Lakers roster now where there's a lot of incomplete options, but there's a lot of options. Like they have a lot of guys who expect to be playing in meaningful games.

A lot of veteran guys who have signed up to play for that team versus if you're looking at Miami, okay, like there's Markief Morris off the bench. There's Max Trues if you're into that. I'm into that. I'm into that. I like Max Cruz. Yeah, I was just going to say. It seems like you're type of guy.

No objection here. But like if you're a veteran wing in the NBA, you're not looking at Max Struis and saying, that guy's going to keep me from playing. playing. Do you think they can complete the Martin set? They can get the other one in there to play with Caleb? No, no. Cody's been too good in Charlotte. I think they're both pretty entrenched where they are, unfortunately. Caleb has been okay. Like, he's made some shots. I'm actually, have we talked about this on a podcast, how the Hornets somehow had to pick between Caleb and Cody and picked Cody? A family

never recovers from that, you know? Like, what do you, how does Thanksgiving go at the Martin house after that? I mean, they probably have quite the bird, though, considering the NBA contracts they have here. I won't belabor this, but like, is Cody the better one? I actually have no idea. I think he's slightly better. Okay. To be honest, like, I respect what both do a lot. I think they both are like good work a day serviceable plug-in wing guys, but they do have that, like, create a player in NBA 2K energy where it's like they're just kind of nondescript in terms of what they do.

but I think Cody is, again, a little bit more dynamic as a ball handler. And I say that with great caveat because you don't want Cody Martin handling the ball either. But these are the lines we draw when we're deciding which of these Martins to cut. Sure. That's the rivalry I really want to see in the playoffs play out. All right. Let's take a quick break here. And we'll come back.

We'll talk about the Wizards and the Bulls. All right. Now we're in the back half. And I think this one's dedicated to the teams that have been more surprised than particularly teams that maybe we hope or expect to be part of the contenders in the long run. Let's start with the Wizards here. A team that, like, I have found myself gravitating toward on the league past aisle a lot lately. I'm surprisingly optimistic about this team.

I think in large part because they figured out how to win in the regular season. Like, they did the thing where they stacked the stars. They brought in Russell Westbrook, tried to be more of a conventional contender type of team. didn't work. And then they just flooded the roster with above-averageness. And it has worked out at this point quite well, especially considering

their history and that their goals for the season are probably just to make it into the playoffs. Rob, what do you think about the Wizards thus far? You feeling good about them? Or you're like, eh, as his fools go, what do you want?

I think you nailed it. I mean, they are what they traded for, which is just wall-to-wall competence. You know, a lot of really good players. And to your point, that works really well in the regular season. It can carry a rotation. It can anchor you to the point where Brad Beale hasn't even been great.

And they're just winning games. They're just consistently winning, consistently very good. And just as we all thought, one of the best defensive teams in the league, of course. Of course the Wizards are one of the best defensive teams in the league. But they're doing it with perimeter defense, which we all know in the playoffs, your big man has to get stops, right? Like, you have to be able to protect the cup. And the regular season is not as important.

But when you got guys like Kuzma, like KCP, like Bradley Bill, as your perimeter defender base, like, these guys are switchable. They're pretty gert. Like, they have enough size to be a deterrent. These guys, you could say. They're playing hard. Gertthy. You know, is this a strange, this is a strange term to say on an NBA podcast, but whatever.

We're PG-13 still over here. But look, I just don't think fifth in defense is something that can sustain because, look, you do have to play a heavy amount of Montres Harrell. And God bless him, he's trying on defense, but he's never going to be at 6'5-some paint deterrent. Like, he can't do it physically. However, as an innings-eater, possessions-eater,

all the euphemisms we use for guys in the regular season who, you know, generate quality offense, he's been incredible. And I think, you know, a lot of people have been surprised because he got so much blame for what the clippers, that clippers collapse against the nuggets in the bubble. So much of it went to Montrez. And I think his reputation suffered because of it. But in the regular season, he's always been basically this type of player.

And by the way, I think we're seeing whether it be this season, the playoffs last year. Doc didn't go to the all small lineup fast enough. That's why they lost that series more than anything else. But whatever, that's another conversation for another day. Well, speaking of other... Speaking of other conversations, and just to make this podcast all about the Lakers all the time, apparently,

I want to float this by you guys and see if it's consistent with what you've seen. But to me, a lot of these former Laker guys who have gone on to other teams are playing sprightlier, more energetic, more engaged basketball this season. I don't know what to attribute that to, but you've got Montrez, who's playing longer stints with more opportunity, looks like a different guy than he did with the Lakers, I think.

Kyle Kuzma has swelled to fill his role in Washington. I think he's done a really competent, really good job. Andre Drummond defending in Philadelphia, even before Joelle went down in a way that he just did not for the Lakers. maybe it's like the pressure of contending versus playing for, you know, looser in some of these other environments. Maybe it's the specifics of the situation there.

I don't know what it is, but it feels noticeable. I mean, Montrez looks like a different guy playing for this team than he did for the Lakers. I think it's kind of easy to identify. Like, I remember AD's effort level to start last season. LeBron was playing fine, but AD specifically,

so like when your best two guys are coming off of a championship and basically treating the regular season like an extended preseason, I think that trickles downward. That flows downward. The role guys take the cues from the best players and if their effort level is at a three, our best guys aren't playing as hard as they can.

I'm damn sure not. You know, the guys who get paid the most money, get the most credit, get the most attention for whenever we get positive outcomes or doing nothing, I ain't got to do nothing either, right? I think that trickles down to where you see, especially somebody like KCP who towards the end of last year wasn't even taking shots.

No. You know what I mean? And now he's all over the, he's taking shots off the dribble, initiating picking rolls, he's flying down the court in transition. Yeah, the energy level is up. And, you know, somebody who deserves a lot of freaking credit

is unselled, man. Yep, yep. This thing has looked incredible. And people have said that he deserves a lot of credit for offensively what was happening in Denver, who all of us considered to be one of the most potent, reliable offensive units in the league for the last two or three seasons. He deserves a lot of that credit. And he's bought that energy. Like, they just play with energy on offense.

The ball is moving around. Guys are moving around off the ball. They're just creating problems. It's dope to see. And it was day one. It wasn't like, oh, they go on a three-game win streak. and then everyone buys in, they've been locked in

in a way that a group of Bradley Biel and a bunch of role players, they don't have to be. So that is a tremendous credit to unselled. I mean, think about all the former Lakers that you mentioned, Harold,

Kuzma, like, those aren't guys you want to play and like stick in the corner and play in the half core and just like try to out-execute another team, which is typically what LeBron James is going to want to do.

You want to get these guys on the run. You want them passing. You want them having fun. And this is what this team really has now. It's not just that these guys are competent that they're floor raisers. It seems like they all fit a vision. Like they didn't just trade for

random guys. These all play a certain type of basketball. And like, I think, to Waz's point, I think that's where you see so much like fun and exuberance. There was one play against the Bucs and that win a couple days ago where Beal in a pretty crucial possession. I think they were down in the fourth quarter in the final minutes. He just

like threw it between his legs behind DeCuzma, who missed the shot. But it was just like, just like there's a real warrior's type of spread joy vibe going on there and I think that helps in a real like dog of a regular season where you're just trying to grind through now 82 games again

well and the other thing they have is not just joy and not just fun and not just energy they got some verve on this team like they got some they've got proud players they've got guys who will get into you Spencer Dinwiddie a guy we haven't talked about yet who's been great for them he's a guy who like for a lot of very valid reasons, has had a chip on his shoulder his entire career,

wants to prove to you that he can be that kind of guy. He's been tremendous, like really good pick and roll threat, really good initiator for them in a way that they need. Chip on the shoulder, All-Stars is really what they have, up and down this roster. I wrote down that they,

they remind me of a fast casual restaurant where it's just like, it's not trash, it's not fast food that you get just to shovel in your mouth, but, you know, it's something a little bit better, right? And I think that's the type of team that they are. Is that a compliment? I don't know.

That is a compliment. And again, and people underestimate this all the time, but regular season, effort level, and motor. I know people like Jeff Van Gundy always talk about it, but it's a skill. Yep. Playing hard every single night for 82 games, a lot of teams don't have it.

So you add the effort level, the execution level, with the legitimate talent that they have on the team, this is going to be sustainable for the first. regular season. Yeah, and Justin, I know you said that it's not all about their floor and maybe we focused on that too much, but there's no question the floor of this team is much higher. Like, they are not a fringe bubble team.

Like, they feel like a pretty confident, solid playoff team to me. Yeah. If you were going to argue for the opposite, they have only played one top 10 offense this, so far through the first 10th game. That was Memphis, which is 10th. So the schedule has been particularly soft. And it seems like they get a lot of teams that are kind of like in a state of disarray right before they play them.

Like there's a little bit of a chicken in the egg there. Like maybe they cause some of the disarray with the Celtics. But at the same time, it seems like the Celtics were going to melt down anyway. I like to think it was Howl Netto just locking them up out there. Netto causing chaos out there like usually does. All right. Let's flip to our last team on this list. Another fast casual team, I would say.

Because this is another team that just like is running, is grabbing and going, is just like, just seems like there's like a frenetic energy to it. that I think is leading to some of this early success they're having. That is just Chicago Bulls. Another team, top 10, both offense and defense, seventh on offense, fourth on defense. Wads, we talked, Rob and I talked about them a couple pods ago when you weren't here. What are your just general takeaways about this Bulls revolution? Are you buying it?

I'm buying it in a sense that these guys understand the opportunity that's in front of them and that they could be a top four East home court team. and, you know, do something really cool in the playoffs. You're never going to convince me that a Vucovich center-centric team is a real playoff defense. I just, look, the effort level is there. They're playing good defense.

Like, they are playing good defense right now in the regular season. And I'll say it over and over again. Caruso and Lanzo and some of these guys are, like, they change the way you play, right? They're frenetic and they're all over the place and they're great smarts and instinct guys like they are.

But Vucovich, you'll never convince me that your defense is going to be of any significant quality when that guy's playing center for you. So, again, I'm cautiously optimistic about what they're doing, but the feelings and the vibes, I know that's like not something you can quantify, you know, but like the vibes are there and DeRosen at the end of games creating quality mid-range looks 101

like that matters that's like he's one of the best tough shot makers that you have and what they're not doing is making the offense all about that it is transition it is Zach Levine pick and rolls it is other things throughout the course

of the game but when it gets late in the fourth like they have a strategy they have a cohesion of what they're trying to do that makes sense. And so, yeah, I just can't think this team is actually a contender when it comes to the playoffs.

But regular season-wise, they're going to keep doing this so long as they stay relatively healthy. Well, you're right that we can't quantify the vibes. But one thing we can quantify that I was kind of surprised by in terms of their defense, because that's, I think,

where the skepticism would come in, right? or Vucovich anchor defense that's fourth in the league right now is a crazy proposition. But usually when teams overperform defensively, the first thing we look to is opponent three point percentage. Our opponents hitting more or fewer threes than we would expect. Teams are actually shooting and making a lot of threes against the bulls. They're one of the highest opponent three point percentages in the league, which would suggest they might be even better in that regard than we've seen so far. They might actually, you know, as those numbers come back to Earth, they might even be.

be well suited to continue some of this. We'll see. I think they are, I think they are served, though, as you were mentioning was, by the energy that Caruso, that Lonzo, that Iodosumu, that Giovante Green bring. Like, I'm a big Patrick Williams fan. I'm a believer in his long-term potential. He's a little bit more color within the lines as a defender than some of these guys who have taken some of his minutes and spots. And I think the chaos of that serves them pretty well. They look and just feel like such an energetic defense. Can we talk about Dissumu? Did I say that right?

Yeah. Dosumu? I wrote down the pronunciation and I still have to check myself. I'm proud of you, though. That's progress. Thank you. Thank you. Because I kept seeing him pop off the screen during their most recent win.

And I was like, I have to figure out who this guy is because he is basically a pipe cleaner, like strapped to a jet pack. This guy is like nothing but just like pure speed and energy. And you're right. It's weird that this team has leaned into that identity so much because you would expect it to be a little bit more split, right? Derozen wants to pound the ball a little bit and take his mid-range shots. Vucevic wants to pound everything, including up and down the court. And yet this team still kind of moves. It's not necessarily a team that plays with pace like Alvin Gentry, seven seconds or less style, but is a team that dictates tempo in a very conscious and like precise sort of way. like they're on the ground getting loose balls.

They will jump on top of you. They, when they're playing offense, it's all attack, attack, attack downhill. And like I do wonder if there's like something to that, having an identity,

establishing that early, not really like taking the time to feel out these new pieces, yada, yada, that can lead to more and more wins, whether or not it will be contender status, something bigger. I don't know.

But at the very least, I think this like success top, I don't know, six in the east, seem sustainable. Well, here's what works, as was outlined. De Rosen and his execution surrounded by spacing. That works.

Like, their smaller lineup with DeRosen at the four has been amazing. Now, DeRosen was some of these guys off the bench who can't shoot. It makes me a little nervous. It's a lot of, like, guys who are passing up threes and swinging passes just a swing up. So they need to iron out some of that. And it's, I mean, they've gotten. like getting Ayudasumu who's basically just a rotation player

out of thin air off the bench has been important for them but they still need more help. They still need more in terms of their depth. So we'll have to see if they can kind of shore up that part over the course of the season but taking good minutes where you can find them with guys like that

that's a blessing given their current situation especially from the moment that Williams went down it was just unclear who was going to be able to fill some of these opportunities and spots and they're playing like a six, four, Judith Power Forward and Javante Green. They're making it work. Javanti Green seems like he's surprised to be out there all the time.

It's a real like turtle from Entourage sort of vibe where he's like, all right, I'll just get the car and you guys do everything else. And then I'll just like show up on the screen every like 10 minutes. It's something. And by the way, Zach Levine is the real deal, right? That's real. He's getting to the cup. Obviously, he is a special, special.

special shooter. And if you look at his shot splits, he's looking like, damn there prime James Harden, right? Like when it comes to the shot distribution, and I think that's real. He's been really intentional about where he's, where the ecosystem of his offense, how that works, right? And so the Levine thing is real. Obviously, DeRose has been doing this for like, damn there a decade now. That's real. And I know we're going to get into the carousal. sanity of it all. I keep saying this. People thought it was just this like,

you know, oh, it's happening on the Lakers, so it's overblown. But this thing is on another team. No, he's not playing next to LeBron because those Caruso LeBron minutes were just magic. As soon as they started going to it more regularly in L.A.

It was just magic, right? And that shit has traveled to Chicago. All the intangibles that he brings and just his, you know, the force that he plays with every single game. These are real things. Yeah. So to like actually talk about the Caruso part of this. So I guess there was a clip from JJ Redix podcast that was circulating yesterday and Tuesday

where he was basically indicating that the Lakers offered him less than two years 15 million. He ultimately got four years 37 million. He did so indicating this to JJ via Blanky. because that was the way JJ asked the question, which was interesting. But like it just, it is yet another. We keep circling back to it. There's like seven degrees of, of Lakersdom going on here or maybe just like one or two,

where it seems like everything circles back to them. But like, I mean, he's definitely proven to be more than what they wanted to pay him last off season. Look, we always got to be careful when we talk about in clutch, we trust. but it would seem that they felt like Taylor Horton Tucker was a better investment than Caruso was. And what's his agency?

Again, in Clutch We Trust. Despite, despite again, the numbers, the empirical data of when your best players, AD and LeBron were next to Caruso, Who made them better and vice versa? Overwhelming evidence as far as the minutes total. And not just that like in playoff games, playoff series. Who had game-changing minutes and who didn't?

The answer was Caruso. For whatever reason, the Lakers were like, no, we're better placed investing in, you know, Tht. And look, T-H-T has been. injured to start the season, maybe he's going to come in and he's going to show himself to be this incredible six-man tight, off the bench, you know, possessions eater, transition guy, defensive stalwart, all these things that Laker fans have been saying he has the potential to do.

But it would seem early on in the season, guys, that that was a mistake. It's a classic case of guy who seems like he can do stuff in Taylor Norton Tucker, like, oh, he's got some off the dribble shake. Oh, he can be a pick and roll player versus a guy who just make shit and move. Like Alex Crusoe, the team moves. And you can see this across all levels of battle. It happens in the draft every year. Like Scotty Barnes is the Alex Caruso model compared to guys who have a little bit more off the dribble,

who have a little more of like a straightforward lane for their game. Guys like Caruso can make your team better. They can define your culture. They can set your tempo. Like they can be really important players at mid-level-ish. or taxpayer of mid-levelish salaries for you. Yeah. And hold on.

More importantly than that, on a team with LeBron, Rajan Rondo, and Russell Westbrook, what the hell is THT's alleged on-ball juice going to do? How? Under what circumstances, is that going to be useful on a team with those three dudes, bro?

Like, we're talking about all-time level. I need to have the ball in my freaking hands to be effective guys. Those three guys specifically were all older. They have more cachet. They just have more of a proven track record than THT. Where's the opportunity for him to even be that guy? Well, Rondo is going to have a season-long injury any day now. LeBron is also ailing, and it's only a matter of time.

before Russell Westbrook has his month-long injuries. I wouldn't be surprised if THD is their primary point guard soon. All of this is well and good, but we're talking about the Bulls. We're putting the Lakers back in the box. I can't even make an Austin Reeves joke because when we were getting to it. All says there can only be one, and now we have Hillbilly Kobe in L.A. No, well, is there anything else you want to say about the Bulls, Rob? Well, I would say if we're talking about their long-term potential, whether they can be contenders, can they be better than they've been, the answer to me is at some point Vooch is going to make shots, right?

Like he's been a good hub for them and passer and screen. He's like doing all that stuff. Just has not made anything. Blowing layups, you know, whiffing on threes. I mean, he is so far in his head at this point. It's becoming a real problem for them. And that next game, there was a couple of bunnies that I was like, all right, voivings. Bucciovich.

Yo, can we get this guy out of here? Like, if you're not going to make layups and you're going to do what you do on a night-to-night basis on defense, at a certain point, it's like, what's the point of this dude? Yeah. Right. But, I mean, as we have outlined, they have been able to blitz opponents, especially in the fourth quarters, which, like, first it was the Celtics and then it was the Nets the other night. It's just like, I've been surprised at how they've just been able to, like, put their foot on the gas and just really kind of take some of these teams out. And, like, I mean, the defense for the Nets and I guess the Celtics, the season are a little bit more mixed than we had expected. But, you know, it's been impressive.

I guess the question, if you have more Vooch on offense, are you getting more Vooch on defense? Like, are you getting the defensive impact of Vouch the longer the season goes along? I don't know. Well, I'm not even saying he needs more shots or something. It's just like, can he make more than 35% of them on a game-to-game basis? Seems like a good place to start. Sure, sure. Well, Rob, I think

Waz and I are on the record here. Where do you think the bulls are going to end up by the end of the season? In terms of standings? Yeah, standings or like, where are they in the hierarchy? I think they're pretty comfortably to me

in that next tier after, I guess Miami is kind of on the fringe, right? Like they're either with Brooklyn or in Milwaukee or they're kind of leading that next group. I would put them, you know, in that category with, with potentially a hawks team that gets its shit together, with a Sixers team if Embed is healthy.

I think they're comfortably in that kind of company, more so than anyone else. Like they've shown enough, they've shown a style of play, they've shown how this can work as proof of concept, working through DeMar, working around him. He's been so sensational.

I have a lot of belief in kind of that framework as far as a team that could get you to the fourth seed, to the third seed potentially. Yeah. Here's a probably better question for the group. And, as we can start with you, like, has the early part of this season changed anything about your perception of, like, how the top of the NBA looks? Like, are you changing your title pick as a result of these first couple games? Are you more skeptical that, like, it's going to be Nets Lakers and are we opening the door for certain teams like the Jazz, like the Heat?

I'm definitely more skeptical that is going to be Nets Lakers. the hardened thing, I said it on Bill's podcast, but like, I'm monitoring that because he just doesn't look like the hardened that we know and some of us love. You know, he just doesn't look like that guy as far. Like, that clip has been circulating where he's like, oh my God. Against the business. He just gets stowled on the drive, gets his pocket picked, doesn't want to take the bad court, just stops, a lay up. And if it ensues, like, I'm monitoring that because if he can't be close to the real Hardin, they're not, they're not as dangerous.

They're just not, you know, and I'm talking about with Kyrie, by the way. They're just not as dangerous if he can't be that guy. So that's something to monitor. I think LeBron being out and the Lakers just looking like sometimes looking like an other joke is a good thing. It's humble pie for the dudes that need to just straight up accept actual roles on a real team that wants to win a championship. So that thing is going to take longer than I probably thought it would to make sense as far as cohesive playoff stuff. And again, the perimeter defense, that's a real freaking thing.

Their wing defense, that's a real actual problem. But again, even wing defense, I think, is something that. can be mitigated with AD and LeBron at the four and five. I really do when you have switch your lineups in a playoff setting. I just think the world of AD and LeBron when they're locked in defensively, not just their ability, but they're just smarts on that end. But it's been ugly. But the only thing that's changed again is Brooklyn Harding because he just doesn't look

right. He doesn't. It was striking at the end of that Bulls' Nets game. how much of their offense was can KD hit a tough shot over someone or bust? That was all the Nets had going. There was one late game possession where Harded and Blake Griffin ran a pick and roll, Hardin drew two to the ball,

kicked to a wide open Blake Griffin at three. And right now, Blake Griffin is not even looking, not even looking at the basket, trying to get it to KD, eventually, you know, putting something up, barely gets it over the rim. They've got a lot of rotation problems to work out.

And the hard end of it all is just kind of at the core of it. Because if he's not going, he's not elevating any of these guys around him. Yeah. It's been a lot more save us, Lamarcus Aldridge, than I was expecting. And even probably Lamarcus Aldridge was expecting for the team. But credit to him, because I know he had like a scary health situation last year. So it's good to see him back. Didn't expect him to be in what he was in the Trailblazers years.

But here we are. I would just say, I would echo the point I made to Waz earlier, just asking the question. It just seems like the doors open for more of a Suns-Bucks situation than I had ever expected. It just seemed like we were heading toward maybe the jazz. Jazz. Jazz are quietly. Yeah, the jazz are quietly eight and three, one of the best teams in the league. Again, I also say like a team like the Dallas Mavericks sitting there seven-three despite looking awful for most of their games.

It's really indicative. I also wonder like how many of these teams that are based around veterans who have, have high aspirations in the playoffs really putting their foot on the gas. Like Chris Paul seems like he's just really taking it easy these days. Like even Kyle Lowry the other night, I mean, against the nuggets, like, oh, for eight. Sometimes he seems like he's just like ready to chill. He's in chill mode down in Miami. So Kyle Lowry doesn't chill.

Like that dude, that dude is always churn and always moving around. He is taking fewer shots than he ever has in like 10 years. So I think he's definitely like. Kyle Lurie also doesn't want to shoot. Yeah. Yeah. You know, like, his natural disposition is like, I'd rather not shoot the ball. But if you told that Kyle Lauer went 0 for 8 in the game,

I believe you. It happens. You know, it's part of the experience. All right. Well, overall point stands. It does seem like people are easing into the season. So we'll see. That's it for us.

We'll be back next week. Thank you to Brian Waters for sitting on in production. Thank you to Rob, Waz. I guess thank you to myself, too. We'll see you next week.